AAA-
Pill 1.2 innings 8 hits 7 runs 2 walks 1 k (awful)
Muno 3-4, 2b, BB
Tovar 0-3
Rivera 1-3, 2b
Kirk 2-4, HR
Reynolds 0-2, 2 k's
AA
Cecchini 0-4, 1 BB, 2 k's
Maz 0-5, 2 k
Conforto 3-5, 2b (gotta be entering the "promote to add a spark" discussion pretty soon, 40 man issue may hold him back t0 2016)
Nimmo 2-5, 2 2b
Fulmer 6.1 innings 7 hits 1 run 3 walks 6 k's (nice start, walks are an issue so far this year)
Koch 1.2 innings 1 hit 0 run 0 walks 3 k's (FB up to 96 out of the pen)
A+
Stuart 1-4, k, SB (Stuart is a sad case. Tools to help the Mets one day, but k rate is absolutely awful)
McNeil 2-5, SB
Smith 3-4 (raking)
Rosario 1-4
Whalen 4.2 innings 4 hits 3 runs 4 walks 5 k's (not overly impressed with Whalen, local kid or not)
Savannah
Guillorme 0-4, 2 k's (0 for last 10 with 6 k's)
Becerra 0-4, K
Reyes 8.2 innings 3 hits 0 er 0 walks 11 k's (absolutely ancient for the level, live arm, promote)
Duff 0.1 1 k
Big 2014 IFA signing Kenny Hernandez is now 3/43 with 11 k's...............
Cyclones season begins today
Almost certainly won't be. No reason to at this point. Will likely play out the year in St. Lucie. The Mets don't push guys during hot streaks like this. He's very young.
Had to build up his confidence once already this year. No real advantage to a promotion any time soon anyway. Duda is here for a "few years". 2016 Dom will be in Bing and then we will go from there. I actually see a LOT of guys who should be promoted but Dom isn't one of them.
He's Kenji Garcia 2.0 :)
Link - ( New Window )
One of the ZiPS' favorites -- and one of mine -- the less-heralded Matz is starting to get a lot more attention, even upping his strikeout rate in his first go-around in AAA from his breakout (and healthy) 2014 season. While Dillon Gee's pitching ultimately made him expendable, the opportunity to possibly give Matz a shot in the majors certainly hastened that process. Yes, I'm placing Matz above Bradley.
Quote:
10. RHP Noah Syndergaard (22), New York Mets
Strangely late in the season, the Mets have finally fully realized that "Thor" is one of their five best starting pitchers. In seven MLB starts, Syndergaard has struck out almost 10 batters a game and put up a 2.91 FIP. And most importantly, he doesn't need Tommy John surgery, which seems to be a popular thing for young Mets pitchers.
Fair enough but I don't see the upside and then Sandy comes back and downplays it aka "not the message we wanted out there" not a big deal just weird to do.
Make it fucking happen.
Matz, Conforto or Thor aka he won't be a Met.
deGrom, Harvey, Conforto, Thor, Matz and still come up with the best possible deal for Chapman. They just signed Mesoraco (and took a catcher high in the draft) so Plawecki is of no interest to them. So unless you think the very best they can do is a Brandon Nimmo headlined deal (almost no chance) he won't be a Met. I actually would do a deal of Nimmo (plus) for Chapman if it were a possibility. Chapman + Familia is a world series caliber back end.
To add Chapman you need to pay that price. Not being snarky but I don't understand the question? I'm not saying they SHOULD trade a deGrom, Harvey, Conforto, Matz or Thor for him. I'm saying given his value, market THAT would be the cost. I'd be fine giving up Nimmo in such a deal, but pretty positive the Reds would scoff. Plawecki has no value to them.
We have an elite, young closer. We need to fix the 8th inning and we don't need to give up our best prospects to do it.
Unless it's a clear no-brainer deal then the Mets should not be moving any of their elite pieces. But that also means being okay with not landing big upgrades. Teams aren't giving up a good starting OF better than Cuddyer or Granderson for a Plawecki or a Nimmo at this time. Same with Chapman. Gotta aim lower. I suggested a Parra/K-Rod deal for Gsellman and a second similar guy. That's the kind of deal Sandy should be looking at. I'd love to find some speed for tge bench as well.
If they wanted an elite back end they should have signed Miller. He and Familia would have been a nasty combo and they could have afforded him simply by non-tendering both Gee/Parnell. But who knows? Maybe Parnell becomes more of a pitcher and steps into the 8th inning role?
Quote:
without being snarky is should we be preparing these packages for everybody that might be an upgrade? I know you are not suggesting it, and I all think we know enough that elite players would cost a lot
Unless it's a clear no-brainer deal then the Mets should not be moving any of their elite pieces. But that also means being okay with not landing big upgrades. Teams aren't giving up a good starting OF better than Cuddyer or Granderson for a Plawecki or a Nimmo at this time. Same with Chapman. Gotta aim lower. I suggested a Parra/K-Rod deal for Gsellman and a second similar guy. That's the kind of deal Sandy should be looking at. I'd love to find some speed for tge bench as well.
I agree 100%. At this point if they want an impact player they might as well start getting a bid ready for Upton this offseason. He is just as good, if not better, than any other bat that has changed teams in the last 3+ seasons. Unless I'm forgetting someone obvious.
Speedy/veteran 4th OFer is 100% the direction they should go this season to improve the club. A BP arm would be nice, but I actually think they have enough there to get by assuming the medical stuff isn't worse than they are letting on.
Since we're on a closer roll, we can't overlook the best of them all. On one hand, Chapman is the only closer out there whom other teams drool over. And unlike Papelbon, who can block deals to 17 teams, Chapman has no control over where he ends up. So it won't be just clubs looking for pure closers that have interest.
On the other hand, the Reds have all major deals on hold for another four weeks, until after the All-Star Game. So teams in need of immediate help might not be able to wait that long. Nevertheless, he's a dominator who can't be a free agent until after 2016. And "he's on the short list of the very best guys out there," said one of the execs quoted earlier. So next to Hamels, he might be the biggest difference-maker on the shelves next month.
Our prediction: Gets traded to the Dodgers to form a scary, late-inning, swing-and-miss tag team with Jansen.
Oh it would be a massive haul - like Matz, Nimmo, Plawecki, Montero, & Robles. But if it only required 1 of our top 3 guys as part of the package we'd probably have to consider it, and it's still probably more than most other teams could offer (that's 3 top 100 prospects and 2 pitchers who could step into the clubhouse staff right away when healthy - most teams don't have that).
It's all likely moot though because the Reds are only 5 games under .500 and it seems much more likely they will try to keep Frazier long term.
I don't see it unless they can find a taker for Granderson.
Dan, what do you think of adding Victorino? He should be coming back from DL soon but doesn't really have a spot open in the lineup. He's always hurt but in a 4th OF role it seems like he's a lightning in a bottle type of guy. Might even be able to nab him for Gee/Niese at this point.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
find it hard to believe the Mets will pay the price on Upton but we shall see. Gotta believe 8-10 years at the highest AAV ever given out by the team. I'm guessing 160-200 million.
I don't see it unless they can find a taker for Granderson.
Dan, what do you think of adding Victorino? He should be coming back from DL soon but doesn't really have a spot open in the lineup. He's always hurt but in a 4th OF role it seems like he's a lightning in a bottle type of guy. Might even be able to nab him for Gee/Niese at this point.
I'd take a guy like that for really cheap. PJ says his rep is very poor in the clubhouse however so I have no idea?
Quote:
We'd have to clear our system to get Frazier and Chapman in the same deal.
Oh it would be a massive haul - like Matz, Nimmo, Plawecki, Montero, & Robles. But if it only required 1 of our top 3 guys as part of the package we'd probably have to consider it, and it's still probably more than most other teams could offer (that's 3 top 100 prospects and 2 pitchers who could step into the clubhouse staff right away when healthy - most teams don't have that).
It's all likely moot though because the Reds are only 5 games under .500 and it seems much more likely they will try to keep Frazier long term.
I think Conforto would have to be in there instead of Nimmo for them to make that deal with us.
I obviously agree that if it only took one of Matz/Thor/Conforto I'd do it in a second. I just don't see any way CIN would.
Kimbrel is not at all analogous. The Braves were dumping tons of salary in the deal (BJ Upton) nearly 50 million owed. Not even close to similar.
2 years ago he was a 6 WAR player with a wRC+ of 119.
Obviously you'd hope to get a good report from scouts that he's moving around well on defense, etc. But he's the perfect guy to start 3-4 games a week total across all OF positions and come in as a late game double switch guy for defense/pinch hitting/pinch running. Can leadoff when he plays for Granderson and let Cuddyer not get run down too much in general.
Who is MMO?
I think Collins made a much bigger mistake in his comments than Legares arm, went right under the radar thankfully.
It would get confusing to go through all the machinations, but if the Reds loved Herrera as a big piece for Frazier, I could see the Mets taking Phillips and the Reds taking some combo of Murphy/Gee/Niese to balance salary. But you would also obviously have to put a Matz/Thor/Conforto in the deal to the Reds also, and I'm not sold that Frazier is the next Bautista so I'd likely pass altogether.
Link - ( New Window )
I agree - but if they simply don't have the money to pay big $ to an Upton, they aren't going to have many alternatives to overpaying with prospects unless they plan on just hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with a crappy lineup and great pitching.
For as close as a lot of their big position prospects are getting, I'm not sure it's fair to expect that any of them can be the type of difference maker they need in the next 1-2 years.
I hope so. That is the absolute best chance this team has to take the next leap.
Maybe you use the reasonable couple years as leverage to add on a reasonable extension that guarantees more $ now? But all in all I don't see them doing that and spending a ton of money blocking Wright until he literally retires which is probably at minimum a season away. Unless they think they could always just move Frazier to the OF.
Dumping Granderson and getting a better OF'er (like Braun or Upton) or trading one of our MI'ers as part of a package for an upgrade up the middle (like Tulowitzki) are theoretically possible but I don't think any of these deals are at all likely. I'd give all of them well under a 5% chance of happening.
I'd prefer to let Conforto do his thing in Bing or Vegas the rest of the year. If he's really, really mashing.. maybe a September call up at absolute fastest. But I'd really rather he just finish out the year in the minors and then compete for a job up here next spring.
I'd prefer to let Conforto do his thing in Bing or Vegas the rest of the year. If he's really, really mashing.. maybe a September call up at absolute fastest. But I'd really rather he just finish out the year in the minors and then compete for a job up here next spring.
If he's still mashing at 150-200 innings, which would be end of July/early August I'd consider bringing him up earlier if there were a role open (one of the COFers playing terribly or injured).
Conforto is playing well. But to bring him up as a savior for our offense I think would be a huge mistake. Let him learn to be patient, let him learn to refine his approach, no need to set him back.
What's the move? Obviously Wright goes to 3B and plays without any question. Do you put Murph on the bench and use him as utility IF? Attempt to deal him? Knowing how easily Wright could hypothetically wind up back on the shelf I'd have to think they'd want to hang onto Murph for insurance.. but it's also hard for me to envision him as a bench player (though it doesn't matter much)
I guess if we dealt Murph and Wright had another setback you could move Wilmer to 3rd more permanently but then you have to put Tejada out there at SS every day.
If Wright is back to almost normal, you'd have to trade Murphy.
If Wright is back to almost normal, you'd have to trade Murphy.
not a chance. I know no one has accepted a QO yet, but I don't risk having to pay 15+M to Murphy for one year.
He's not that player and no advanced metric invented is going to tell me that's a good baseball or financial move.
What's the move? Obviously Wright goes to 3B and plays without any question. Do you put Murph on the bench and use him as utility IF? Attempt to deal him? Knowing how easily Wright could hypothetically wind up back on the shelf I'd have to think they'd want to hang onto Murph for insurance.. but it's also hard for me to envision him as a bench player (though it doesn't matter much)
I guess if we dealt Murph and Wright had another setback you could move Wilmer to 3rd more permanently but then you have to put Tejada out there at SS every day.
Not necessarily, Reynolds is an option. He's 24 years old and all of his numbers are pretty consistent with what he'd done last year in AAA (other than his BABIP).
Yes.
I'd drive Harvey to the airport. 100% yes.
Yes 100%.
I actually wondered about that same question a couple weeks ago during one of the Kris Bryant/Bryce Harper discussions.
The guy is a fucking beast. I love Harvey and he has the stuff to be as good as anyone in baseball (and has looked the part at times already) but the pitching would be more plausible to recoup.
Easy yes for me. The Braves traded Shelby miller for heyward bay. I think we can do Harvey for the best (ish) hitter in the game. Plus I'm bored of being bored watching our offense. Plus our remaining rotation is still a top one (assuming health but then again Harvey could easily get hurt again)
Anyway, yes
Link - ( New Window )
Not exactly inspiring
Over a 162 game season, Stanton might have more impact. But in the playoffs, a great pitcher can win 3 games in a series all by himself. Even the greatest hitter needs help from the other guys in the lineup. No hitter can dominate the way a pitcher can in a short series.
Gaby Almonte
Tyler Badamo
Matt Blackham
Nicco Blank
Gaither Bumgardner
Kevin Canelon
Jose Celas
Michael Gibbons
John Mincone
Craig Missigman
Christian Montgomery
Alex Palsha
Ruben Reyes
Corey Taylor
Carlos Valdez
Ty Williams
Over a 162 game season, Stanton might have more impact. But in the playoffs, a great pitcher can win 3 games in a series all by himself. Even the greatest hitter needs help from the other guys in the lineup. No hitter can dominate the way a pitcher can in a short series.
As much as I love Stanton and drool at the thought of him as a Met. I agree - you take the rare ace over the hitter if your goal is to win the playoff games.
During a regular season a good hitter and goo pitcher both are directly involved in 600 ABs a season. In the playoffs the pitcher is involved in 40-50+ while the hitter only is directly involved in about 30.
Hitters can absolutely carry a team if they're on fire. Beltran did it with the Astros in 2004.
Yes, and that's why Stanton would make the Mets a better team overall. You still have deGrom, Thor (hypothetically) or Matz (hypothetically) with the capability of dominating a given series and carrying you.
Hitters can absolutely carry a team if they're on fire. Beltran did it with the Astros in 2004.
Arc,
Not so sure that's the best example to use when saying you take a hitter over a pitcher - to carry you to a World Series title lol.
Quote:
What Bumgarner did last year was basically unprecedented. I wouldn't even expect Harvey to do that (and I think Harvey is elite when he's on)
Hitters can absolutely carry a team if they're on fire. Beltran did it with the Astros in 2004.
Arc,
Not so sure that's the best example to use when saying you take a hitter over a pitcher - to carry you to a World Series title lol.
Ha, yeah.. I know. There are other examples though. Nelson Cruz in 2011? Stanton is the type of dude who could totally sway a series on his own with his power. We don't have anyone else like that on the roster or anyone even close. At least we have other arms with the ability to dominate.
Not adding him. The NEED to add him. He doesn't need to be 40 man added until after NEXT season which means if they add him know they may cost them another player and the guys who are eligible are plentiful this year.
Bowman, Reynolds, Fulmer, Gant, Koch, Nimmo, Gsellman, Becerra are all Rule V eligible
Reynolds, Fulmer, Nimmo and Gsellman are seemingly LOCKS. Becerra is going to be a tough call and I dount they are eager to lose Koch or Gant. They will treat lightly. Super two will be a consideration as well.
Looking it over quick, seems like there are a bunch of easy ones that will be freed up:
C. Torres
Colon and probably Niese (trade)
Campbell
Tovar
Murphy (let him walk or trade)
Mayberry
Edgin
Carlyle
Puello
21 innings 30 hits 8 walks 6 k's... not a typo. 6. He's been an abomination to this point. 6.16 FIP. THE WORST in the PCL (2nd worst is 5.84, 38 year old former OF Jason Lane)
2015...4.13 (4th worst mark in the PCL, worst is again... Jason Lane) and 2nd worst is someone named Ross Wolf drafted in 2002.
Career 7.6 K/9
Because he's actually been trending the WRONG way in terms of missing bats. He's also allowed 11 homers so it's not as if he's coaxing grounders in place of the k's.
April 5.54 FIP
May 5.82
June 5.93
The relevance is he's not turning it around, he's getting progressively worse
Link - ( New Window )
2. Siena (2b)
3. Katz (1B)
4. Bernal (RF)
5. Mathieu (DH)
6. Perez (3B)
7. Garcia (C)
8. Tharp (CF)
9. Reyes (SS)
P. Badamo
_________________
Siena is the best of the bunch, Mets have talked up Bernal in the past, Reyes has a good glove. Crap lineup prospect wise though. BK is stinky this year.
Link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
He's not that player and no advanced metric invented is going to tell me that's a good baseball or financial move.
Sorry in advance for the wall of text.
Here's an argument for giving a QO to Murphy that doesn't involve any advanced metrics at all: The total number of players who have accepted a QO since its introduction is 0. Zero. In three seasons. 34 offers have been made, and 34 offers have been turned down. Most of those players ended up getting more on the open market, but there are at least a few examples of players who, in retrospect, would have been better off accepting the QO.
If we assume that everyone who could conceivably be offered a QO will turn it down, then teams should offer the QO to everyone so that all the players who leave turn into compensatory picks. But of course, that's not the assumption we should make, because the 34 players who have turned down QOs before don't provide a guarantee that the 35th player will also turn it down. That being said, there's a simple equation we can use to determine whether the QO is worth offering (see, I lied, there's math involved - but it's simple math!).
Let's say that the probability Murphy will accept the QO is P, the value of the compensatory pick the Mets will receive is C, and the difference betwee the QO price and Murphy's actual expected value to the Mets (either on the field or in a trade) is V. We don't actually know what these values are, but two of those values are whatever the Mets happen to think they are - only P is out of their control. In any case, we can make our own best guesses for each of these.
Offering Murphy the QO has an expected value and an expected cost. The expected value is
The expected cost is
I'm going to pick some values now, you can pick whatever you want (if you're still reading). Let's pretend that P is 30 percent, C is $3 million, and P is $5 million (e.g. the Mets value Murphy's potential contributions for 2016 at $11 million. In that case, the expected value of offering the QO is $3M * (1 / 0.3) = $2.1M, and the expected cost is ($5M * 0.3) = $1.5M; the Mets would achieve a positive expected value by offering Murphy the QO, and should probably do it. Of course, I just made those numbers up. Maybe the Mets only value Murphy's services at $6M, think the draft pick only offers about $1M of surplus value, and think there's a 60 percent chance Murphy accepts a QO; in that case the math comes out strongly against offering one. Or maybe the Mets think, based on historical precedent, that the odds Murphy accepts the QO are only 5 percent, that the compensatory pick is worth $4M, and that Murphy's worth $14M next year, in which case offering the QO is obvious. The point is, the decision-making process here depends on several inputs here, and both decisions are in fact entirely justifiable as long as the inputs to that process have some rational basis.
tl;dr: Whether the Mets should offer Murphy a QO and whether Murphy is actually worth the QO contract value are related questions but not the same question.
I see what you're saying, but it really depends on what "P" is. We need Murphy to finish strong.