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NFT: Fivethirtyeight | Star/Starter/Bust Probability of NBA Draft

GiantFilthy : 6/19/2015 3:05 pm


This may have been posted. Will delete if so.


Link with detail. - ( New Window )
Stanley  
MookGiants : 6/19/2015 3:06 pm : link
Johnson having a lower bust potential than KAT makes this virtually worthless.
Ha  
MookGiants : 6/19/2015 3:11 pm : link
Dakari Johnson, too
Here is their process.  
GiantFilthy : 6/19/2015 3:17 pm : link
Quote:
Aside from a player’s scouting ranking, the most significant predictive factors are either demographic or based on the program from which he came: his age, weight and the schedule-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings of his school. As for individual college statistics, the most important are 2-point shot attempts per minute, assist percentage and offensive rebounding percentage, followed by usage rate, shooting efficiency from the floor (as measured by effective field goal percentage) and steal percentage.

In other words, snagging young, athletic prospects who pass the eye test with flying colors is ideal. But there’s also value in looking for underrated players who can create shots for themselves (particularly inside the arc) and others, skillful rebounders (offensive rebounds are often better indicators of actual rebounding talent — and not team role — than defensive boards), efficient shooters or gifted ball hawks.
91.2% chance of stardom for the entire Top 50  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 6/19/2015 3:25 pm : link
interesting how it's less than 100% for the entire group. Shows how hard it is to find Franchise players.
they have been doing this for a couple years right?  
Italianju : 6/19/2015 3:26 pm : link
does anyone have their previous lists?

Didnt someone do something like this at one point that had Lawson in the top 5, was that this same thing?
RE: Stanley  
Deej : 6/19/2015 3:26 pm : link
In comment 12335450 MookGiants said:
Quote:
Johnson having a lower bust potential than KAT makes this virtually worthless.


I could see it. Less likely to be a star, but there's a real good chance he'll be a top 8/9 rotation guy who can defend the wing. Every team could use a guy like that. But Im a Stanimal fan -- I think someone is going to do pretty well with him in the 2nd half of the lottery. He was getting top 4-6 hype early in the season.
man this thing had no idea what to do with..  
Italianju : 6/19/2015 3:28 pm : link
russell. Highest star potential with the highest bust potential in the top 25
RE: man this thing had no idea what to do with..  
giants#1 : 6/19/2015 3:31 pm : link
In comment 12335478 Italianju said:
Quote:
russell. Highest star potential with the highest bust potential in the top 25


Great numbers + below average athleticism?

I wonder where Porzingis and Mudiay would fall.
Good to see the Wisconsin players  
RB^2 : 6/19/2015 3:50 pm : link
down the list where they belong. Dekker/Kaminsky = major NBA flops.
Mook  
JesseS : 6/19/2015 5:59 pm : link
There are outliers in statistical analysis. Also, they're talking odds of being a role player too. Being a role player Is an awesome outcome for a draft pick. Guys aren't drafting someone 5th that won't possibly be a superstar. But in baseball, it happens all the time. Guys are picked high because of salary and chance of at least being able to start. Most superstar like talents are busts. You know that. So saying this list is worthless is a bit hyperbolic. This list isn't saying who will be the best player. Statistically speaking, I found it interesting.
so  
MookGiants : 6/19/2015 6:07 pm : link
Dakari Johnson has less of a chance to bust than Karl Anthony Towns, despite Towns doing every single thing on the basketball court better than Johnson, and most light years better?
RE: so  
dep026 : 6/19/2015 6:13 pm : link
In comment 12335680 MookGiants said:
Quote:
Dakari Johnson has less of a chance to bust than Karl Anthony Towns, despite Towns doing every single thing on the basketball court better than Johnson, and most light years better?


I read this that Dakari ceiling is very low, therefore his bust potential is very low.
.912 stars from the entire top 50?  
manh george : 6/19/2015 7:37 pm : link
Either they see this as a godawful draft or they have the entire system calibrated way too low.
RE: so  
JayBinQueens : 6/19/2015 7:42 pm : link
In comment 12335680 MookGiants said:
Quote:
Dakari Johnson has less of a chance to bust than Karl Anthony Towns, despite Towns doing every single thing on the basketball court better than Johnson, and most light years better?


I think that's just saying, since Towns has a hire ceiling, there are more scenarios in which his career is considered a bust
higher  
JayBinQueens : 6/19/2015 7:45 pm : link
fml
Mcullough  
hitdog42 : 6/19/2015 8:31 pm : link
From cause intrigues me
RE: RE: so  
MookGiants : 6/19/2015 8:35 pm : link
In comment 12335771 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
In comment 12335680 MookGiants said:


Quote:


Dakari Johnson has less of a chance to bust than Karl Anthony Towns, despite Towns doing every single thing on the basketball court better than Johnson, and most light years better?



I think that's just saying, since Towns has a hire ceiling, there are more scenarios in which his career is considered a bust


Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't think that's the case. There is a column for role player. So if Towns is a role player, people would consider him a bust. But they are two separate columns.

I could be missing something, who knows. But to me bust means the same for Dakari and Towns, just simply not useful players at all, otherwise there would be no role player column.
interesting  
PaulBlakeTSU : 6/19/2015 11:38 pm : link
at this point, the only thing I can say is that I hope they continue this for several years so that they can continue to mine the data and we can start to see better fleshed-out patterns.
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