but he did have seasons where he averaged 17, 19.5 and 21 PPG. Say what you want about his defense and rebounding, but everyone knew about those flaws going in and he did not really have the athleticism to improve upon those things.
While none of the advanced stats say anything good about him, when we talk about busts, we talk about Kwame Brown, Anthony Bennett, Derrick Williams. I'd hardly consider him in the same breath as those guys. If you're telling me KPs absolute floor is a 37% 3 point shooting stretch big that can give at least average defense and 15 PPG, I'll take it.
But Bargs was a net-negative player and everyone realized that despite the PPG numbers. Even when he was dropping 20 a game for the Raptors, he was hurting the team because of everything else he absolutely sucked at.
So while a guy like Anthony Bennett provided 0 value for his team, Bargnani provied a ton of negative value for his team because he played so much and so poorly.
That's the argument for Bargs as an all-time bust.
Bargs did not reach his potential for a number of reasons
You have to really want it in the NBA, and by all accounts he didnt. He was also coddled even though Sam Mitchell wanted to ride him; had he not received kid gloves treatment his defense and maybe rebounding would have been better. He was a stretch 4 (really a 3 in a big's body) miscast as a center because Bosh wasnt really a center either.
But in any event, they're very different players. And so much of getting from great prospect to greatness is mental: will and work ethic.
compared to KP, which is why I am not as worried about things like running the floor, team defense, and moving off the ball. There was an expectation for Bargs to develop into a sort of player that Kevin Love ended up becoming; sure, he's unathletic, but Love was able to develop into a highly efficient, team-oriented player that could at least rebound even if he couldn't provide anything on defense. Bargs never came close to that.
narrative, it's "during the summer [of '08] he worked hard on his body, putting up some more weight (adding some 15 pounds of muscle)". The next season, his stats jumped from 10 ppg to 15 ppg and he shot 40% from 3. He was listed as 225 on draft net and is now at 245.
I think the focus is on KP to gain that type of weight now. It looks like he's never really lifted heavy before, so I wouldn't think it would be ridiculous for him to be even 10 pounds heavier at the start of this season, as skinny guys tend to balloon up in the first few months of actual lifting.
But the stereotyping and profiling of euro prospects is just so silly. They are where black qbs were post Warren Moon and pre Mcnabb from a perception standpoint. And it's really silly, because there have been a ton of European impact players and several all stars. People want to make a big deal about the recent drought of euro lotto prospects becoming all stars (even though several non lotto euro prospects have made all star games in that time, and several more are on their way), but that has nothing whatsoever to do with each individual case. Sometimes things just happen randomly. Duke had a run of iffy prospects, then things changed a bit. Jeff tedford qbs sucked, then came Aaron Rodgers. And the book is not out yet on some of those lotto picks who haven't been all stars
But the stereotyping and profiling of euro prospects is just so silly. They are where black qbs were post Warren Moon and pre Mcnabb from a perception standpoint. And it's really silly, because there have been a ton of European impact players and several all stars. People want to make a big deal about the recent drought of euro lotto prospects becoming all stars
Exactly. How many top 5-10-20 picks every year become all-stars? Not many. Otherwise every team would be dripping with them. A lot more guys fail in the NBA than succeed.
still believe Darko could have been a difference maker at the NBA level. I can't blame it all on Larry Brown because Darko isn't even playing in Europe (he's kickboxing) but of the Euro busts we hear mentioned I really don't think Darko was a bust due to scouting. His "gifts" were legit.
lottery Euros have sucked as bad as they have over the past 10 years is absolutely relevant imo. Especially since so many non-Lottery Euros have developed into legit players.
Makes me think that the NBA scouting of Int'l prospects is still lacking because the guys we expect to be stars are busts and the guys we expect to be JAGs turn out to be valuable players more often than the lottery guys.
I definitely buy that aspect of it. It's a lot tougher to get a gauge on these guys even if you make a concerted effort to have an organizational presence overseas. An added barrier is that many are barely even playing for their teams in Europe when they are draft age, because unlike American college players they are in leagues with grown men
I think you have to take the lottery euros on a case by case basis.
lottery Euros have sucked as bad as they have over the past 10 years is absolutely relevant imo. Especially since so many non-Lottery Euros have developed into legit players.
I think a lot of that also has to do with high draft pick Euro's typically are coming over immediately; lower picks get time to develop there before coming over.
But the stereotyping and profiling of euro prospects is just so silly. Jeff tedford qbs sucked, then came Aaron Rodgers. And the book is not out yet on some of those lotto picks who haven't been all stars
I totally agree. The odd thing is Mario Hezonja wasn't painted with the same brush... it's only tall white Europeans who're supposed to be "the next Dirk Nowitzki". However, I would like to SEE Zingis play well before being told how great he is.
have been so good up to a point where they have been taken in the lottery. Does that mean if KP went 15th, you suddenly bring up the list of all the recent non-lottery euros and say he is going to be great? No.
You take the damn player where he is supposed to go. His success is not dependant on where he was taken in the draft.
There's been so many Euro's that have been making noise recently, I don't get the whole xenophobia thing. Mirotic, Giannis, Dragic, Pekovic, Schroder. Enough with the few busts over the last 20 years that have been making a bad name for the many that have broken onto the scene recently.
There are many issues I have with the misleading nature....
Of that lotto european stat espn kept giving out all draft coverage. But in addition to the fact that non lotto guys have thrived, I also dont know why we have to separate Europeans from foreign players in general. Yao among went 1st overall and was a terrific nba player, and if anything coming from china is an even bigger/tougher transition than coming from Europe.
I think the difference is that its easy to "see" Hezonja play in the NBA. He is a shooter that fits an existing mold in terms of height and athleticism.
With KP, its hard to see how he fits because there is really no precedent for him. His weight is the biggest thing that scares people away, but if you think about an athletic 7'2" player with a 7'6 wingspan that can hit 3s and block shots, there's some sort of "too good to be true" aspect that also scares people away.
KP is as unique as they come, and people area always hesitant on the "unique" players. Jan Vesley was seen as unique with his combination of size, athleticism, and ball handling. But so was Kevin Durant. Its that mysterious aspect that I think scares people off.
Throw Gobert in as a guy who is on his way to being a beast. He can win a DPOY some day. I think Valencunas of the Raps is destined for a productive 12+ year career and could sneak his way onto an all star team or two. If Gallinari can ever stay healthy I think he could be euro rashard Lewis, late last year he had a 47 point game and was showing signs of rounding into form. We are both just going off the top of out heads here with young players (or young-ish in the case of Gallinari), there are a ton of guys. The league is pushing 30% foreign as a whole
significantly higher than that of American born players?
I can't imagine it is. There are a shitload of busts in every draft, most of whom are black Americans. It's basically restricted to tall white guys and the "next Dirk" thing/style of play. I think not seeing these players has a major effect too. For example, no one is going to be screaming bust when Domantas Sabonis turns pro.
and should be made between Euro's and other foreigners. It definitely tells you something about the competition level the prospect was facing. Obviously the better the competition, the easier it is to evaluate a player.
Rather than lumping all foreign players together, ESPN should go the other way and do a break down based on players coming from the different Euro leagues.
Is that non-Euro lottery picks sometimes fail, but often become mega-stars. Realistically speaking, what Euro's besides Nowitzki and Gasol are mega-stars?
If history holds, you are betting that your Euro lottery pick ends up being at best a complementary fringe starter or role player. At worst, he becomes a complete bust.
History changes. I'm just not sure I'd take that chance.
significantly higher than that of American born players?
I can't imagine it is. There are a shitload of busts in every draft, most of whom are black Americans. It's basically restricted to tall white guys and the "next Dirk" thing/style of play. I think not seeing these players has a major effect too. For example, no one is going to be screaming bust when Domantas Sabonis turns pro.
A lot of it is perception. Many NBA fans at least casually follow CBB so they've seen most of the top prospects from CBB dominate at that level and partly expect them to continue that performance at the next level. So as the scouts/GM in that blog post above regarding Porz point out, if you miss on an American CBB prospect, you try again. If you're the GM that misses on one of these Euros (who most fans haven't heard of until "draft season"), you lose your job.
significantly higher than that of American born players?
I don't know. But the Euro Lottery Star rate has been 0 for a decade now. Obviously there have been American stars since that time.
The talent pool for American players is significantly larger, so the odds of an American being a star are a lot higher. It's pointless to bring that into the equation.
Is that non-Euro lottery picks sometimes fail, but often become mega-stars. Realistically speaking, what Euro's besides Nowitzki and Gasol are mega-stars?
If history holds, you are betting that your Euro lottery pick ends up being at best a complementary fringe starter or role player. At worst, he becomes a complete bust.
History changes. I'm just not sure I'd take that chance.
But what percentage of american born players drafted have become megastars? Do the 2 stars mentioned above out of a smaller total pool stack up percentage-wise?
Is that non-Euro lottery picks sometimes fail, but often become mega-stars. Realistically speaking, what Euro's besides Nowitzki and Gasol are mega-stars?
If history holds, you are betting that your Euro lottery pick ends up being at best a complementary fringe starter or role player. At worst, he becomes a complete bust.
History changes. I'm just not sure I'd take that chance.
But what percentage of american born players drafted have become megastars? Do the 2 stars mentioned above out of a smaller total pool stack up percentage-wise?
significantly higher than that of American born players?
I don't know. But the Euro Lottery Star rate has been 0 for a decade now. Obviously there have been American stars since that time.
The talent pool for American players is significantly larger, so the odds of an American being a star are a lot higher. It's pointless to bring that into the equation.
How is it pointless to point out that none of the most hyped Euro prospects ended up doing much?
I don't know. But the Euro Lottery Star rate has been 0 for a decade now. Obviously there have been American stars since that time.
The talent pool for American players is significantly larger, so the odds of an American being a star are a lot higher. It's pointless to bring that into the equation.
How is it pointless to point out that none of the most hyped Euro prospects ended up doing much?
I didn't say that part was pointless. I said it was pointless to relate it to American stars, when you usually have 2 or 3 Europeans considered lottery talents yet you have 4 times as many American players considered lottery talents.
lottery Euros have sucked as bad as they have over the past 10 years is absolutely relevant imo. Especially since so many non-Lottery Euros have developed into legit players.
Makes me think that the NBA scouting of Int'l prospects is still lacking because the guys we expect to be stars are busts and the guys we expect to be JAGs turn out to be valuable players more often than the lottery guys.
Who are you talking about? The lottery Euros over the last 10 drafts (exclusive of 2015) are:
2011 - #3 Kanter, #5 JV on Toronto (both 20+ PER last season)); #6 Vesely looks like a bust, just like American #2 D. Williams. My recollection was that this was considered a 4 player draft, with the first two, Williams and Irving (Thompson was a surprise at #4, and I dont really like his game).
2009 - Rubio #5. I'd argue injury has played a huge role here, but part of the problem was shooting that everyone knew would always be a problem. Not a bust at ~15 PER (see, e.g., #2 Thabeet and #6 Johnny Flynn).
2008 - #6 Gallo. But for the back injury I think he's a better version of Peja. Better than #7-9 picks Gordon, Alexander, and Augustin.
2006 - #1 Bargs. Not an all star but there have been more disappointing #1s. Horrible top 5 outside of Aldridge -- hello Morrison, Ty Thomas, and Shelden Williams!
2005 - #11 Vazquez never came over. #12 Korolev I guess is a bust, but really #11-16 were all <10 win share players. It's the late lottery.
Overall, I dont think lottery Euros have been so bad over the last 10 drafts. No superstars, but only one top 2 pick, and that in a horrible draft. Rubio and Gallo have turned into okay players despite injuries, and as mid lottery picks that's really fine. The two 2011 guys look pretty good.
Serviceable might be selling short, though. there are many knowledgeable basketball people who feel he is a star in the making. Will he be a star in year 1? Probably not. But, how many are. he certainly sounds like a guy they can build with to win while Anthony is still here.
so you are banking on your lottery Euro being at best a servicable guy.
huh? Why restrict it to the lottery? Considering so few are drafted in the lottery (especially the high lottery) it's a completely arbitrary end point.
I hear you and don't completely disagree. But, with so many people talking him up, and this goes back to before the draft, I feel a lot better. This isn't Frederic Weiss. This is a much more talented and polished player who actually played against decent competition. The point is, I don't think Phil views this pick as a reach and neither do a lot of other people.
and cringe when there are actually analysts that made that comment.
My take would just be that if you were looking for a big Euro who could pass well and have a decent perimeter shot, then those guys exist at pick 34. If you are drafting on potential, hell, Winslow has the potential to be a future HOF. He also has a potential to be a bust.
I guess what I'd say based on history is that even the top Euro's potential seems to top out at decent, reliable, complementary player.
But the stereotyping and profiling of euro prospects is just so silly. They are where black qbs were post Warren Moon and pre Mcnabb from a perception standpoint. And it's really silly, because there have been a ton of European impact players and several all stars. People want to make a big deal about the recent drought of euro lotto prospects becoming all stars (even though several non lotto euro prospects have made all star games in that time, and several more are on their way), but that has nothing whatsoever to do with each individual case. Sometimes things just happen randomly. Duke had a run of iffy prospects, then things changed a bit. Jeff tedford qbs sucked, then came Aaron Rodgers. And the book is not out yet on some of those lotto picks who haven't been all stars
Especially when these guys are in the NBA currently
Dirk, Parker, Ibaka (African I get it), Gortat, Gobert, Pau and Marc Gasol, Dragic, Mirotic, Greek Freak, Vucevic (yes played some college ball), Batum, Gallo etc etc. There are dozens of international players in the NBA who are having/will have better careers than most of the lotto picks.
does a player being picked in the lottery have to do with anything? Do we suddenly throw out a guy like Dragic (a top 10 NBA PG because he "wasn't lottery"? Ibaka? Koufas? Pekovic? Mirotic? Fournier? Greek Freak doesn't count because he went 15th?
While none of the advanced stats say anything good about him, when we talk about busts, we talk about Kwame Brown, Anthony Bennett, Derrick Williams. I'd hardly consider him in the same breath as those guys. If you're telling me KPs absolute floor is a 37% 3 point shooting stretch big that can give at least average defense and 15 PPG, I'll take it.
I love his tenacity but he's a very limited player whose defense really isn't even that good.
But Bargs was a net-negative player and everyone realized that despite the PPG numbers. Even when he was dropping 20 a game for the Raptors, he was hurting the team because of everything else he absolutely sucked at.
So while a guy like Anthony Bennett provided 0 value for his team, Bargnani provied a ton of negative value for his team because he played so much and so poorly.
That's the argument for Bargs as an all-time bust.
But in any event, they're very different players. And so much of getting from great prospect to greatness is mental: will and work ethic.
I'm assuming that would be for Splitter? Would be a tremendous addition for the Cavs.
I think the focus is on KP to gain that type of weight now. It looks like he's never really lifted heavy before, so I wouldn't think it would be ridiculous for him to be even 10 pounds heavier at the start of this season, as skinny guys tend to balloon up in the first few months of actual lifting.
He's certainly not as skinny as KP, but he wasn't exactly low body fat. KP doesn't have any body fat on him.
2006- 11.6, 42%, 37%
2007- 10.2, 39%, 35%
2008- 15.4, 41%, 41%
2009- 17.2, 47%, 37%
2010- 21.4, 45%, 35%
Issue was that he basically hit a wall after that 2010 season and never really got back up to that level he was in 2009 and 2010.
Obviously never progressed in terms of defense and rebounding as well.
Did this lack of progression have to do with him hitting his athletic ceiling? Was it a lack of passion? Who knows it's a bit tough to tell.
Hopefully if that was the case Porz can progress even further in all areas of the game due his superior athleticism and work ethic.
Exactly. How many top 5-10-20 picks every year become all-stars? Not many. Otherwise every team would be dripping with them. A lot more guys fail in the NBA than succeed.
Makes me think that the NBA scouting of Int'l prospects is still lacking because the guys we expect to be stars are busts and the guys we expect to be JAGs turn out to be valuable players more often than the lottery guys.
Is Kanter a bust? 3rd overall, but not an all star. And not a failed player.
If you believe the history, scouts had Pekovic slotted as a top ten, but something about his weird, expensive euroleague contract scared people away.
I think a lot of that also has to do with high draft pick Euro's typically are coming over immediately; lower picks get time to develop there before coming over.
I totally agree. The odd thing is Mario Hezonja wasn't painted with the same brush... it's only tall white Europeans who're supposed to be "the next Dirk Nowitzki". However, I would like to SEE Zingis play well before being told how great he is.
You take the damn player where he is supposed to go. His success is not dependant on where he was taken in the draft.
There's been so many Euro's that have been making noise recently, I don't get the whole xenophobia thing. Mirotic, Giannis, Dragic, Pekovic, Schroder. Enough with the few busts over the last 20 years that have been making a bad name for the many that have broken onto the scene recently.
With KP, its hard to see how he fits because there is really no precedent for him. His weight is the biggest thing that scares people away, but if you think about an athletic 7'2" player with a 7'6 wingspan that can hit 3s and block shots, there's some sort of "too good to be true" aspect that also scares people away.
KP is as unique as they come, and people area always hesitant on the "unique" players. Jan Vesley was seen as unique with his combination of size, athleticism, and ball handling. But so was Kevin Durant. Its that mysterious aspect that I think scares people off.
I can't imagine it is. There are a shitload of busts in every draft, most of whom are black Americans. It's basically restricted to tall white guys and the "next Dirk" thing/style of play. I think not seeing these players has a major effect too. For example, no one is going to be screaming bust when Domantas Sabonis turns pro.
Rather than lumping all foreign players together, ESPN should go the other way and do a break down based on players coming from the different Euro leagues.
If history holds, you are betting that your Euro lottery pick ends up being at best a complementary fringe starter or role player. At worst, he becomes a complete bust.
History changes. I'm just not sure I'd take that chance.
I don't know. But the Euro Lottery Star rate has been 0 for a decade now. Obviously there have been American stars since that time.
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significantly higher than that of American born players?
I can't imagine it is. There are a shitload of busts in every draft, most of whom are black Americans. It's basically restricted to tall white guys and the "next Dirk" thing/style of play. I think not seeing these players has a major effect too. For example, no one is going to be screaming bust when Domantas Sabonis turns pro.
A lot of it is perception. Many NBA fans at least casually follow CBB so they've seen most of the top prospects from CBB dominate at that level and partly expect them to continue that performance at the next level. So as the scouts/GM in that blog post above regarding Porz point out, if you miss on an American CBB prospect, you try again. If you're the GM that misses on one of these Euros (who most fans haven't heard of until "draft season"), you lose your job.
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significantly higher than that of American born players?
I don't know. But the Euro Lottery Star rate has been 0 for a decade now. Obviously there have been American stars since that time.
The talent pool for American players is significantly larger, so the odds of an American being a star are a lot higher. It's pointless to bring that into the equation.
If history holds, you are betting that your Euro lottery pick ends up being at best a complementary fringe starter or role player. At worst, he becomes a complete bust.
History changes. I'm just not sure I'd take that chance.
But what percentage of american born players drafted have become megastars? Do the 2 stars mentioned above out of a smaller total pool stack up percentage-wise?
Quote:
Is that non-Euro lottery picks sometimes fail, but often become mega-stars. Realistically speaking, what Euro's besides Nowitzki and Gasol are mega-stars?
If history holds, you are betting that your Euro lottery pick ends up being at best a complementary fringe starter or role player. At worst, he becomes a complete bust.
History changes. I'm just not sure I'd take that chance.
But what percentage of american born players drafted have become megastars? Do the 2 stars mentioned above out of a smaller total pool stack up percentage-wise?
Technically that's 3 stars: Dirk, Pau, and Marc
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In comment 12349516 Enzo said:
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significantly higher than that of American born players?
I don't know. But the Euro Lottery Star rate has been 0 for a decade now. Obviously there have been American stars since that time.
The talent pool for American players is significantly larger, so the odds of an American being a star are a lot higher. It's pointless to bring that into the equation.
How is it pointless to point out that none of the most hyped Euro prospects ended up doing much?
Enzo : 4:18 pm : link : reply
significantly higher than that of American born players?
don't know if the "bust rate" is higher, but at least from a perception stance, it would seem like the "star rate" is much lower.
I don't know. But the Euro Lottery Star rate has been 0 for a decade now. Obviously there have been American stars since that time.
The talent pool for American players is significantly larger, so the odds of an American being a star are a lot higher. It's pointless to bring that into the equation.
How is it pointless to point out that none of the most hyped Euro prospects ended up doing much?
I didn't say that part was pointless. I said it was pointless to relate it to American stars, when you usually have 2 or 3 Europeans considered lottery talents yet you have 4 times as many American players considered lottery talents.
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is the Euro lottery bust rate
Enzo : 4:18 pm : link : reply
significantly higher than that of American born players?
don't know if the "bust rate" is higher, but at least from a perception stance, it would seem like the "star rate" is much lower.
that's bound to happen given the HUGE difference in sample size.
Gasol --------- 48
Ibaka --------- 24
Gortat -------- 57
Batum --------- 25
Dragic -------- 45
Ilyasova ------ 36
Gallinari ----- 6
Sefolosha ----- 13
Splitter ------ 28
Belinelli ----- 18
Valanciunas --- 5
Pekovic ------- 31
Bargnani ------ 1
Asik ---------- 36
Jerebko ------- 39
Fernandez ----- 24
Mahinmi ------- 28
Kanter -------- 5
Casspi -------- 23
Rubio --------- 5
Makes me think that the NBA scouting of Int'l prospects is still lacking because the guys we expect to be stars are busts and the guys we expect to be JAGs turn out to be valuable players more often than the lottery guys.
Who are you talking about? The lottery Euros over the last 10 drafts (exclusive of 2015) are:
2011 - #3 Kanter, #5 JV on Toronto (both 20+ PER last season)); #6 Vesely looks like a bust, just like American #2 D. Williams. My recollection was that this was considered a 4 player draft, with the first two, Williams and Irving (Thompson was a surprise at #4, and I dont really like his game).
2009 - Rubio #5. I'd argue injury has played a huge role here, but part of the problem was shooting that everyone knew would always be a problem. Not a bust at ~15 PER (see, e.g., #2 Thabeet and #6 Johnny Flynn).
2008 - #6 Gallo. But for the back injury I think he's a better version of Peja. Better than #7-9 picks Gordon, Alexander, and Augustin.
2006 - #1 Bargs. Not an all star but there have been more disappointing #1s. Horrible top 5 outside of Aldridge -- hello Morrison, Ty Thomas, and Shelden Williams!
2005 - #11 Vazquez never came over. #12 Korolev I guess is a bust, but really #11-16 were all <10 win share players. It's the late lottery.
Overall, I dont think lottery Euros have been so bad over the last 10 drafts. No superstars, but only one top 2 pick, and that in a horrible draft. Rubio and Gallo have turned into okay players despite injuries, and as mid lottery picks that's really fine. The two 2011 guys look pretty good.
Like I said - just not a chance I'd take, especially on a 19 year old
huh? Why restrict it to the lottery? Considering so few are drafted in the lottery (especially the high lottery) it's a completely arbitrary end point.
I guess the old adage is there that "we are due", but I sure would have been more confident with a different pick there if I'm the Knicks.
My take would just be that if you were looking for a big Euro who could pass well and have a decent perimeter shot, then those guys exist at pick 34. If you are drafting on potential, hell, Winslow has the potential to be a future HOF. He also has a potential to be a bust.
I guess what I'd say based on history is that even the top Euro's potential seems to top out at decent, reliable, complementary player.
Especially when these guys are in the NBA currently
Dirk, Parker, Ibaka (African I get it), Gortat, Gobert, Pau and Marc Gasol, Dragic, Mirotic, Greek Freak, Vucevic (yes played some college ball), Batum, Gallo etc etc. There are dozens of international players in the NBA who are having/will have better careers than most of the lotto picks.
2011 NBA Lottery:
Euros: kanter, JV, Vesley Busts: Vesley Bust Rate: 33%
American Busts: Fredette, Williams Bust Rate: 20%
2010 NBA Lottery:
Euros: None Bust rate: N/A
American Busts: Turner, Johnson, Udoh, Aminu, Aldrich, Henry
Bust Rate: 50%
2009 NBA lottery:
Euros: Rubio Bust Rate: Depends on your perception of Rubio
American Busts: Thabeet, Flynn, Hill, T Williams, Hansbrough, Henderson, Clark
Bust Rate: 46%
2008 NBA Draft Lottery:
Euros: Gallo Busts: none Bust Rate: 0%
American Busts: Alexander, Beasley, Mayo, Augustin, Bayless, Thompson, Rush, Randolph
Bust Rate: 62%