The problem is we don't often see that version. The fact NYG is in no rush to hand him the extension he wants suggests strongly to me they want to see the superior version more often.
It's the delta between the superior version and the regression to the mean that creates pause when talking about elite compensation. If I'm running a business, I wouldn't pay the dude elite dollars either, it's common sense, imv.
Watt is a 3-4 DE although they use him like a 4-3 DE
When he's playing like a JAG, I'd take Bennett, Ansah, Griffen, Ware, and Mario Williams because their motors stay revved, and the first three are still ascending prospects.
Remember, I'm one of these here who said we should draft him, and I've said in the past he's got plenty of talent. His issues appear to be between his ears. NYG seems to agree or the extension would be done.
it appears the message was received, given how he's apparently been training this offseason. It's up to him to hit the field and erase the questions, and he'll be rewarded accordingly. I hope he pulls it off because it portends good things for NYG.
The guys you listed also resemble jags from time to time.
And Demarcus ware is 100 years old while ziggy is a baby who hasn't come close to doing what jpp has done.
Whatever I get your point with the jpp flaws but he's clearly a top 3 DE with or without the caveats and hedges to your statement. If you believe that JPPs best days are behind him or that he's gonna regress after getting paid that's fair. But as of now he's better than most.
He's definitely an elite pass-rusher - which was the OP's question - even if his 2014 didn't match his monster 2013. Wake is still very good, and the addition of Suh should extend his statistical prime.
Of mental gymnastics but put JPP on the Rams and he'd be doing a hell of a lot better. The Giants have had horrifically bad LBs for 3 years, a secondary that's all over the place and injured.
He's better than Ware right now. Ware has a season or two left at most. Ansah looks to be the best after Watt who is heading to the HOF already. The rest are all over the place. And to ignore the fact that of all then DEs he's probably the best outside of Watt vs the run is a bit myopic
Lastly having a Fewell as the DC certainly wasn't helping anyone's career.
This year is a big one but this reminds me of Osi when Sherridan was here. Then after he left he went to being a force. He may be the best pick of all of Reese's tenure and people want to pay him like a scrub. Smh
When he's playing like a JAG, I'd take Bennett, Ansah, Griffen, Ware, and Mario Williams because their motors stay revved, and the first three are still ascending prospects.
Remember, I'm one of these here who said we should draft him, and I've said in the past he's got plenty of talent. His issues appear to be between his ears. NYG seems to agree or the extension would be done.
Mario's the only one here that's better than JPP (in any facet really). I know you love Ansah, but he'd be killed here compared to JPP. People think JPP "loafs it" half the time and yet he still finished with 5 more sacks and 14 more tackles than Ansah. I'm Big Hanks biggest fan, but JPP is/was the lead dog on that line drawing the most doubles/chips, whereas at best Ansah was #2 behind Suh (and maybe even #3 behind Fairley).
Ware - maybe 3 years ago. Give me JPP now, though Ware's probably a better pure pass rusher.
The top 8 43DEs (in no particular order):
Quinn
Mario Williams
Hardy (when he's actually on the field
JPP
Charles Johnson
E Griffen
Cameron Jordan
Ansah
Overall I'd probably put JPP top 3, but if you want to focus solely on pass rush skills he might be a little lower. If he's not #1 against the run, he's #1b.
taking it easy at times. Yes, he came to camp a little overweight once or twice. But I don't know how anyone can watch him play and tell me he isn't giving it his all. He plays something like 90% of the D snaps (IIRC, Watt is the only other DLineman in that ballpark) and is always chasing guys down on the other side of the field or 15 yards down field (since our LBs blow).
Is an excellent run stuffer, but he isn't an elite 4-3 pass rusher.
Mario Williams is better at it, and is great against the run, too. Everson Griffen is improving, his future is bright. Von Miller isn't ideal as a run guy, but is a much more prolific pass rusher. As is Robert Quinn.
There's more 3-4 teams now than ever. It's about being an outside rusher. JPP is way too inconsistent at it as a top echelon pass-rusher.
They're not exactly caveats or hedges, they are what they are. He's shown a tendency to be inconsistent and the team is even hesitant to commit at elite market dollars. I hope he pulls off a monster 2015 and erases the doubts, but the doubts are there for the decision makers.
Worst case is he's top 5. There are guys like Ansah, Gallette, Mario Williams, Everrson Griffin, who are in that vicinity, but consider the running game, JPP separates himself easily.
And I'd love to see someone tell me Cameron Wake or Robert Quinn are balls to the wall every play.
No doubt JPP has been inconsistent, but who isn't?
Even JJ Watt had a lone sack and I think it was against Justin Pugh in the Giants game against one of the worst OL in the league.
They're not exactly caveats or hedges, they are what they are. He's shown a tendency to be inconsistent and the team is even hesitant to commit at elite market dollars. I hope he pulls off a monster 2015 and erases the doubts, but the doubts are there for the decision makers.
We don't know what the front office is hesitant to commit to. JPP could be looking for Suh-type money (~$19M/year). There isn't a non-QB in the NFL worth that.
JPP is absolutely worth more than the deal Cameron Jordan just signed for though ($11M/year). For all we know the Giants could be offering a deal worth $12-13M/year but JPP's team isn't interested in that.
Watt is the elite DE, he gets the top dollars. His motor is non-stop, he statistically grades out elite, he's beloved, a solid citizen, a HoFer in the making.
I don't put JPP in Watt's class, but in the next tier if he's healthy and motivated. As such, he should be paid in the next tier. Are you willing to pay JPP $16M AAV? It's most likely a significant overpay, and as a businessman I'd seek to pay him accurately. Overpayment sets a precedent that tends to reverberate throughout a roster, and apply that to Prince who was chirping about UFA contracts being paid to CBs ($10M+ AAV) consistently in March.
Paying JPP $16M per or Prince $10M per is paying for what you hope they'll produce, and that's risky business, especially if there's work ethic or injury concerns creating pause.
In a cap league such parsing, analytics, and placing a contract value on every player is in practice. NYG knows the man and the player and the risks he presents. If they're concerned about investing 10% of their cap space in said player, I'm ok with proceeding with caution.
They're not exactly caveats or hedges, they are what they are. He's shown a tendency to be inconsistent and the team is even hesitant to commit at elite market dollars. I hope he pulls off a monster 2015 and erases the doubts, but the doubts are there for the decision makers.
We don't know what the front office is hesitant to commit to. JPP could be looking for Suh-type money (~$19M/year). There isn't a non-QB in the NFL worth that.
JPP is absolutely worth more than the deal Cameron Jordan just signed for though ($11M/year). For all we know the Giants could be offering a deal worth $12-13M/year but JPP's team isn't interested in that.
Word was NYG was offering him in the $12M AAV ballpark before Suh signed, since then it's been dead silence.
the minimum amount that it takes to get him to stick around.
LOL, obvious?
however, the Giants are in a real precarious situation because the depth behind him is questionable at best and it's not often elite DE's hit the free agent market - and would cost LESS than what they'd pay JPP.
Lastly, you can't really count on rookies at DE to contribute day 1, DL from how I've seen the Giants bring rookie DL along is not plug and play - based on everyone but Cofield.
So the question boils down to how much you want to pay JPP vs. what will his replacement cost.
Owa Odi is the wild card IMO. Year 2, can he replace JPP.
Because otherwise I don't see his replacement on the roster which means you're paying a FA and if you're doing that and getting someone upper echelon you're paying them close to JPP anyway.
JPP has all the leverage here IMO. The team had it until they franchised him, not it's his.
Watt is the elite DE, he gets the top dollars. His motor is non-stop, he statistically grades out elite, he's beloved, a solid citizen, a HoFer in the making.
I don't put JPP in Watt's class, but in the next tier if he's healthy and motivated. As such, he should be paid in the next tier. Are you willing to pay JPP $16M AAV? It's most likely a significant overpay, and as a businessman I'd seek to pay him accurately. Overpayment sets a precedent that tends to reverberate throughout a roster, and apply that to Prince who was chirping about UFA contracts being paid to CBs ($10M+ AAV) consistently in March.
Paying JPP $16M per or Prince $10M per is paying for what you hope they'll produce, and that's risky business, especially if there's work ethic or injury concerns creating pause.
In a cap league such parsing, analytics, and placing a contract value on every player is in practice. NYG knows the man and the player and the risks he presents. If they're concerned about investing 10% of their cap space in said player, I'm ok with proceeding with caution.
If we're talking DL overall, it's:
Tier 1
Watt
Suh
Tier 2
Quinn
JPP
Dareus
Mario
McCoy
Wilkerson
etc.
The question is, when figuring out the salaries for Tier 2 guys, do you use Watt's $16.6M AAV or Suh's $19M AAV. My guess is the Giants want to base a long term deal relative to Watt's and JPP's camp is looking at Suh's crazy ass deal. I think the Giants would be ok giving out a 5-6 year deal at AAV of ~$15M with backloaded base salaries so the cap hits in the first couple years are closer to $12-13M. I don't think the Giants would do an AAV deal of ~$18M with the first few cap hits in the $15-16M range.
If JPP was willing to sign a deal like Quinn's, I think this thing would've been done months ago. And I think those two are pretty close comps. Roughly the same age, Quinn has the edge in pass rushing, JPP against the run.
Was that before or after the Suh deal? Because if that was their starting point after Suh's deal and the Giants starting point was $12M AAV, then it's hard to believe they couldn't figure something out long term.
My guess is that was pre-franchise tag negotiations (aka pre-Suh) and based off Watt's deal. Then Suh got his ridiculous contract and JPP's camp probably upped what they were looking for to the $17-18M AAV.
Was that before or after the Suh deal? Because if that was their starting point after Suh's deal and the Giants starting point was $12M AAV, then it's hard to believe they couldn't figure something out long term.
My guess is that was pre-franchise tag negotiations (aka pre-Suh) and based off Watt's deal. Then Suh got his ridiculous contract and JPP's camp probably upped what they were looking for to the $17-18M AAV.
It was before the Suh deal was signed, your latter scenario is the correct one based on what I'd heard and gleaned. A few of us posted here suggesting they'd better hurry up and seal it before Suh was signed, otherwise it portended new difficulties, and it does appear accurate.
My suspicion was both sides probably weren't terribly far off on AAV compromise, but the guaranteed money being handed out is killing their efforts.
Eg, $40M+ guaranteed for Quinn and speculation was NYG might have upped their offer to approx. $25M. I've heard zero since Suh signed, so current status is unknown. JPP and Jordan share an agent, btw.
I think the Giants would probably be happy with keeping him on a deal comparable to Quinn's. But from JPP's perspective, he's going to use Watt's as a starting point in negotiations (at least before Suh was signed).
My suspicion was both sides probably weren't terribly far off on AAV compromise, but the guaranteed money being handed out is killing their efforts.
Eg, $40M+ guaranteed for Quinn and speculation was NYG might have upped their offer to approx. $25M. I've heard zero since Suh signed, so current status is unknown. JPP and Jordan share an agent, btw.
The $40M+ guaranteed number that is always tossed around (not by you, but by the media) is complete bullshit. Only $15.6M was fully guaranteed (signing bonus + 2014 base + 2015 roster bonus). His 2015-2017 base salaries become guaranteed if he's still on the roster those seasons. So if he blows out his knee this year and looks like he'll never play again, then the Rams can cut him before 2016 for only a $5.3M dead cap hit. If the $$ was fully guaranteed, the dead cap hit would've been ~$20M in this hypothetical.
Quinn got $41 million guaranteed, and his per-year average is around $11 million for six years. I don't know if the Giants want to guarantee JPP that much. Also, although his numbers last year were a little down, Quinn has essentially been a model of consistency while JPP has not. There's a lot more risk with JPP than with Quinn, in my opinion.
RE: RE: RE: RE: JPP's team was reportedly looking for $15-16M AAV
My suspicion was both sides probably weren't terribly far off on AAV compromise, but the guaranteed money being handed out is killing their efforts.
Eg, $40M+ guaranteed for Quinn and speculation was NYG might have upped their offer to approx. $25M. I've heard zero since Suh signed, so current status is unknown. JPP and Jordan share an agent, btw.
The $40M+ guaranteed number that is always tossed around (not by you, but by the media) is complete bullshit. Only $15.6M was fully guaranteed (signing bonus + 2014 base + 2015 roster bonus). His 2015-2017 base salaries become guaranteed if he's still on the roster those seasons. So if he blows out his knee this year and looks like he'll never play again, then the Rams can cut him before 2016 for only a $5.3M dead cap hit. If the $$ was fully guaranteed, the dead cap hit would've been ~$20M in this hypothetical.
Understood, Jordan got almost $34M grntd (I don't know its structure) but the point being the player will point to that full number as respect being shown to him, etc.
maybe have been more consistent from a pass rush standpoint, but he can't hold a candle to JPP in the run game.
I'd take JPP over any of the other 4-DE's after Watt (who isn't really a 4-3D DE) and maybe Cameron Wake, but Wake is 7 years older than JPP or possibly Mario Williams who is also older.
JPP slotting in $1-2M below Watt's AAV made too much sense (for both sides) before the Suh deal.
Ultimately, that's what I've trying to drive at. NYG was trying to re-sign him for $12M AAV, but a compromise at $14M AAV was there for the taking, provided they could bridge the gap on guarantees. If JPP's team is now hellbent on exploring the open market in the hopes of landing a deal exceeding Watt's, for example, then he's going to hit the open market next March.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: JPP's team was reportedly looking for $15-16M AAV
Understood, Jordan got almost $34M grntd (I don't know its structure) but the point being the player will point to that full number as respect being shown to him, etc.
Agree, I just think with "guaranteed" money there are enough ways to get creative so the player can feel respected without the team bearing too much risk.
In fact, a contract for JPP structured like Quinn's makes a lot of sense if they aren't convinced about JPP's work ethic.
In the next group, JPP is near the top. No way do I rank Ansah or Bennett ahead of JPP. I would not take them going forward either. I don't expect either to outperform JPP over the next 5 years.
The main problem I see with JPP is not his play but unreasonable expectations from fans (not you but far too many).
The guy is one of the best run defending DL in the league and a very good pass rusher. I also think his effort is outstanding. He plays hard.
The only issue for me on the pass rush is he tends to give up on the rush too much and look to knock down passes too often. For this, I blame the coaches for not correcting it (although it did seem to get much better last year).
Another thing I love about JPP is he kicks the hell out of Williams in WAS every game and does it often to the LT in Dallas too.
He steps up vs NFC east teams.
We're going to see a slim downed JPP. He'll be a big time player this year.
I think JPP at his best is better than those players. He's got to clean up giving on pass plays, cleaning up his reads (read option), and do a better job of contain first. If he needs a blow, get off the field. Basic responsibilities, just clean it up and many of the effort questions will go away.
when people talked about having to wait to see production from him I disagreed and expected him to instantly help as a situational pass rusher.
The team is a lot different(thin on starting DE talent) which is why I think Odi has an excellent shot to win the starting job (plus he's an ass kicker vs the run).
About JPP, the price is crazy high. Watt you do it for without thinking twice. There isn't another DE in the NFL right now that is a no brainer at that price.
But I really want to see JPP on the Giants the next 5 years. I hope they work it out.
Yeah, that bugs me when he bails on his pass rush. Eliminate that and he's a lot better.
He's got a big paycheck waiting so we'll see his best this year. It will suck to lose him. He's only 26. I want him back and playing with Odi for 5 more years.
Contract Notes:
$15,618,583 initially guaranteed (Signing Bonus + 2014 base + 2015 Roster Bonus)
2015, 2016, 2017 Base Salaries Fully guarantee on the 5th league day of respective year.
2015 Roster Bonus: $10,233,201 (paid 3rd day of 2015)
2016 Roster Bonus: $2.424,242 (paid 5th league day of 2015)
2017 Roster Bonus: $3,633,363 (paid 5th league day of 2016)
2018 Roster Bonus: $1,111,111, paid 3rd league day of 2018)
2019 Roster Bonus: $1,121,211 (paid 3rd league day of 2019)
Interesting that it is reported in the "Guaranteed" part of their site that he is guaranteed $41MM, while the reality per the contract notes is very different.
Guaranteeing a guy his full-year salary (for that year) once he's five days into the league year is a relatively small commitment. It basically protects the player through the first week of the season only.
That's because a veteran (who hasn't collected termination pay previously) who is on the roster on the first week of the season gets his full year's salary guaranteed even if he's subsequently cut.
Previously there was a race to announce the largest overall contracts, even though much of it was never intended to be earned. We learned to pay close attention to the "guaranteed" money. With that now the focus we find that those numbers don't really mean that much, actually.
Based on his performance from 2012 thru 2014, I'd agree that JPP is nothing special. He doesn't demand double-teaming to be stopped and in my book ELITE means you need to be at least chipped on all clear passing downs. JPP may get a little more attention because he is our top guy. But I think Moore, Ayers, OWA, Bromley will bring something more to the table than most expect.
I see our "Four Aces" as Moore, Hankins, Ayers and JPP. I see Kennard as our "Maverick" type lining up on passing downs to help create mis-matches galore.
As the season goes on, I see our rotation keeping the DL fresh and lively. This is the "KEY" group for this defense because it is deep.
But nothing happens unless Moore, Bromley, Kuhn ((assuming he sticks and I think he has a good chance over aging Jenkins) develop. They are the 4th year or less bodies with upside.
Interesting that it is reported in the "Guaranteed" part of their site that he is guaranteed $41MM, while the reality per the contract notes is very different.
Guaranteeing a guy his full-year salary (for that year) once he's five days into the league year is a relatively small commitment. It basically protects the player through the first week of the season only.
That's because a veteran (who hasn't collected termination pay previously) who is on the roster on the first week of the season gets his full year's salary guaranteed even if he's subsequently cut.
Previously there was a race to announce the largest overall contracts, even though much of it was never intended to be earned. We learned to pay close attention to the "guaranteed" money. With that now the focus we find that those numbers don't really mean that much, actually.
It's all in the contract details.
I think you're mixing dates. Vets on the roster for week 1 (game 1) are guaranteed their fully year's salary even if subsequently cut. The vesting clause "5 days into the league year" corresponds to (roughly) the start of Free Agency.
So as of now Quinn's 2015 base is fully guaranteed, but if something were to happen between now and March 2016 to make the Rams want to part ways with him, Quinn would never see his 2016/2017 "guaranteed" base salaries.
The problem is we don't often see that version. The fact NYG is in no rush to hand him the extension he wants suggests strongly to me they want to see the superior version more often.
It's the delta between the superior version and the regression to the mean that creates pause when talking about elite compensation. If I'm running a business, I wouldn't pay the dude elite dollars either, it's common sense, imv.
After Watt...please list them...
Remember, I'm one of these here who said we should draft him, and I've said in the past he's got plenty of talent. His issues appear to be between his ears. NYG seems to agree or the extension would be done.
And Demarcus ware is 100 years old while ziggy is a baby who hasn't come close to doing what jpp has done.
Whatever I get your point with the jpp flaws but he's clearly a top 3 DE with or without the caveats and hedges to your statement. If you believe that JPPs best days are behind him or that he's gonna regress after getting paid that's fair. But as of now he's better than most.
He's better than Ware right now. Ware has a season or two left at most. Ansah looks to be the best after Watt who is heading to the HOF already. The rest are all over the place. And to ignore the fact that of all then DEs he's probably the best outside of Watt vs the run is a bit myopic
Lastly having a Fewell as the DC certainly wasn't helping anyone's career.
This year is a big one but this reminds me of Osi when Sherridan was here. Then after he left he went to being a force. He may be the best pick of all of Reese's tenure and people want to pay him like a scrub. Smh
Remember, I'm one of these here who said we should draft him, and I've said in the past he's got plenty of talent. His issues appear to be between his ears. NYG seems to agree or the extension would be done.
Mario's the only one here that's better than JPP (in any facet really). I know you love Ansah, but he'd be killed here compared to JPP. People think JPP "loafs it" half the time and yet he still finished with 5 more sacks and 14 more tackles than Ansah. I'm Big Hanks biggest fan, but JPP is/was the lead dog on that line drawing the most doubles/chips, whereas at best Ansah was #2 behind Suh (and maybe even #3 behind Fairley).
Ware - maybe 3 years ago. Give me JPP now, though Ware's probably a better pure pass rusher.
The top 8 43DEs (in no particular order):
Quinn
Mario Williams
Hardy (when he's actually on the field
JPP
Charles Johnson
E Griffen
Cameron Jordan
Ansah
Overall I'd probably put JPP top 3, but if you want to focus solely on pass rush skills he might be a little lower. If he's not #1 against the run, he's #1b.
Ninkovich - 93.8%
Jordan - 93.2%
Watt - 93%
JPP also was out there for 18.4% of the Giants special teams snaps (an additional 87 snaps).
Snap Counts - ( New Window )
Mario Williams is better at it, and is great against the run, too. Everson Griffen is improving, his future is bright. Von Miller isn't ideal as a run guy, but is a much more prolific pass rusher. As is Robert Quinn.
There's more 3-4 teams now than ever. It's about being an outside rusher. JPP is way too inconsistent at it as a top echelon pass-rusher.
Cameron Wake
Robert Quinn
and then probably JPP.
Worst case is he's top 5. There are guys like Ansah, Gallette, Mario Williams, Everrson Griffin, who are in that vicinity, but consider the running game, JPP separates himself easily.
And I'd love to see someone tell me Cameron Wake or Robert Quinn are balls to the wall every play.
No doubt JPP has been inconsistent, but who isn't?
Even JJ Watt had a lone sack and I think it was against Justin Pugh in the Giants game against one of the worst OL in the league.
We don't know what the front office is hesitant to commit to. JPP could be looking for Suh-type money (~$19M/year). There isn't a non-QB in the NFL worth that.
JPP is absolutely worth more than the deal Cameron Jordan just signed for though ($11M/year). For all we know the Giants could be offering a deal worth $12-13M/year but JPP's team isn't interested in that.
I don't put JPP in Watt's class, but in the next tier if he's healthy and motivated. As such, he should be paid in the next tier. Are you willing to pay JPP $16M AAV? It's most likely a significant overpay, and as a businessman I'd seek to pay him accurately. Overpayment sets a precedent that tends to reverberate throughout a roster, and apply that to Prince who was chirping about UFA contracts being paid to CBs ($10M+ AAV) consistently in March.
Paying JPP $16M per or Prince $10M per is paying for what you hope they'll produce, and that's risky business, especially if there's work ethic or injury concerns creating pause.
In a cap league such parsing, analytics, and placing a contract value on every player is in practice. NYG knows the man and the player and the risks he presents. If they're concerned about investing 10% of their cap space in said player, I'm ok with proceeding with caution.
Quote:
They're not exactly caveats or hedges, they are what they are. He's shown a tendency to be inconsistent and the team is even hesitant to commit at elite market dollars. I hope he pulls off a monster 2015 and erases the doubts, but the doubts are there for the decision makers.
We don't know what the front office is hesitant to commit to. JPP could be looking for Suh-type money (~$19M/year). There isn't a non-QB in the NFL worth that.
JPP is absolutely worth more than the deal Cameron Jordan just signed for though ($11M/year). For all we know the Giants could be offering a deal worth $12-13M/year but JPP's team isn't interested in that.
Word was NYG was offering him in the $12M AAV ballpark before Suh signed, since then it's been dead silence.
LOL, obvious?
however, the Giants are in a real precarious situation because the depth behind him is questionable at best and it's not often elite DE's hit the free agent market - and would cost LESS than what they'd pay JPP.
Lastly, you can't really count on rookies at DE to contribute day 1, DL from how I've seen the Giants bring rookie DL along is not plug and play - based on everyone but Cofield.
So the question boils down to how much you want to pay JPP vs. what will his replacement cost.
Owa Odi is the wild card IMO. Year 2, can he replace JPP.
Because otherwise I don't see his replacement on the roster which means you're paying a FA and if you're doing that and getting someone upper echelon you're paying them close to JPP anyway.
JPP has all the leverage here IMO. The team had it until they franchised him, not it's his.
I don't put JPP in Watt's class, but in the next tier if he's healthy and motivated. As such, he should be paid in the next tier. Are you willing to pay JPP $16M AAV? It's most likely a significant overpay, and as a businessman I'd seek to pay him accurately. Overpayment sets a precedent that tends to reverberate throughout a roster, and apply that to Prince who was chirping about UFA contracts being paid to CBs ($10M+ AAV) consistently in March.
Paying JPP $16M per or Prince $10M per is paying for what you hope they'll produce, and that's risky business, especially if there's work ethic or injury concerns creating pause.
In a cap league such parsing, analytics, and placing a contract value on every player is in practice. NYG knows the man and the player and the risks he presents. If they're concerned about investing 10% of their cap space in said player, I'm ok with proceeding with caution.
If we're talking DL overall, it's:
Tier 1
Watt
Suh
Tier 2
Quinn
JPP
Dareus
Mario
McCoy
Wilkerson
etc.
The question is, when figuring out the salaries for Tier 2 guys, do you use Watt's $16.6M AAV or Suh's $19M AAV. My guess is the Giants want to base a long term deal relative to Watt's and JPP's camp is looking at Suh's crazy ass deal. I think the Giants would be ok giving out a 5-6 year deal at AAV of ~$15M with backloaded base salaries so the cap hits in the first couple years are closer to $12-13M. I don't think the Giants would do an AAV deal of ~$18M with the first few cap hits in the $15-16M range.
If JPP was willing to sign a deal like Quinn's, I think this thing would've been done months ago. And I think those two are pretty close comps. Roughly the same age, Quinn has the edge in pass rushing, JPP against the run.
Word was NYG was offering him in the $12M AAV ballpark before Suh signed, since then it's been dead silence.
I always take those reports with a grain a salt, but that would indeed mean JPP's probably looking for a Suh type deal.
Quote:
Word was NYG was offering him in the $12M AAV ballpark before Suh signed, since then it's been dead silence.
I always take those reports with a grain a salt, but that would indeed mean JPP's probably looking for a Suh type deal.
It's word I got in the backchannels, media reported it later. Suh signed and everything went black, including cvic posting updates on BBI.
Was that before or after the Suh deal? Because if that was their starting point after Suh's deal and the Giants starting point was $12M AAV, then it's hard to believe they couldn't figure something out long term.
My guess is that was pre-franchise tag negotiations (aka pre-Suh) and based off Watt's deal. Then Suh got his ridiculous contract and JPP's camp probably upped what they were looking for to the $17-18M AAV.
It's word I got in the backchannels, media reported it later. Suh signed and everything went black, including cvic posting updates on BBI.
Yea, I'm guessing JPP's team saw the Suh deal and upped their demands.
JPP slotting in $1-2M below Watt's AAV made too much sense (for both sides) before the Suh deal.
Better comparison IMO.
Quote:
.
Was that before or after the Suh deal? Because if that was their starting point after Suh's deal and the Giants starting point was $12M AAV, then it's hard to believe they couldn't figure something out long term.
My guess is that was pre-franchise tag negotiations (aka pre-Suh) and based off Watt's deal. Then Suh got his ridiculous contract and JPP's camp probably upped what they were looking for to the $17-18M AAV.
It was before the Suh deal was signed, your latter scenario is the correct one based on what I'd heard and gleaned. A few of us posted here suggesting they'd better hurry up and seal it before Suh was signed, otherwise it portended new difficulties, and it does appear accurate.
My suspicion was both sides probably weren't terribly far off on AAV compromise, but the guaranteed money being handed out is killing their efforts.
Eg, $40M+ guaranteed for Quinn and speculation was NYG might have upped their offer to approx. $25M. I've heard zero since Suh signed, so current status is unknown. JPP and Jordan share an agent, btw.
Better comparison IMO.
I think the Giants would probably be happy with keeping him on a deal comparable to Quinn's. But from JPP's perspective, he's going to use Watt's as a starting point in negotiations (at least before Suh was signed).
That kind of jumped off the screen at me and I don't think I can discuss his worth with that hanging.
My suspicion was both sides probably weren't terribly far off on AAV compromise, but the guaranteed money being handed out is killing their efforts.
Eg, $40M+ guaranteed for Quinn and speculation was NYG might have upped their offer to approx. $25M. I've heard zero since Suh signed, so current status is unknown. JPP and Jordan share an agent, btw.
The $40M+ guaranteed number that is always tossed around (not by you, but by the media) is complete bullshit. Only $15.6M was fully guaranteed (signing bonus + 2014 base + 2015 roster bonus). His 2015-2017 base salaries become guaranteed if he's still on the roster those seasons. So if he blows out his knee this year and looks like he'll never play again, then the Rams can cut him before 2016 for only a $5.3M dead cap hit. If the $$ was fully guaranteed, the dead cap hit would've been ~$20M in this hypothetical.
Better comparison IMO.
Quinn got $41 million guaranteed, and his per-year average is around $11 million for six years. I don't know if the Giants want to guarantee JPP that much. Also, although his numbers last year were a little down, Quinn has essentially been a model of consistency while JPP has not. There's a lot more risk with JPP than with Quinn, in my opinion.
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My suspicion was both sides probably weren't terribly far off on AAV compromise, but the guaranteed money being handed out is killing their efforts.
Eg, $40M+ guaranteed for Quinn and speculation was NYG might have upped their offer to approx. $25M. I've heard zero since Suh signed, so current status is unknown. JPP and Jordan share an agent, btw.
The $40M+ guaranteed number that is always tossed around (not by you, but by the media) is complete bullshit. Only $15.6M was fully guaranteed (signing bonus + 2014 base + 2015 roster bonus). His 2015-2017 base salaries become guaranteed if he's still on the roster those seasons. So if he blows out his knee this year and looks like he'll never play again, then the Rams can cut him before 2016 for only a $5.3M dead cap hit. If the $$ was fully guaranteed, the dead cap hit would've been ~$20M in this hypothetical.
Understood, Jordan got almost $34M grntd (I don't know its structure) but the point being the player will point to that full number as respect being shown to him, etc.
I'd take JPP over any of the other 4-DE's after Watt (who isn't really a 4-3D DE) and maybe Cameron Wake, but Wake is 7 years older than JPP or possibly Mario Williams who is also older.
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JPP slotting in $1-2M below Watt's AAV made too much sense (for both sides) before the Suh deal.
Ultimately, that's what I've trying to drive at. NYG was trying to re-sign him for $12M AAV, but a compromise at $14M AAV was there for the taking, provided they could bridge the gap on guarantees. If JPP's team is now hellbent on exploring the open market in the hopes of landing a deal exceeding Watt's, for example, then he's going to hit the open market next March.
Understood, Jordan got almost $34M grntd (I don't know its structure) but the point being the player will point to that full number as respect being shown to him, etc.
Agree, I just think with "guaranteed" money there are enough ways to get creative so the player can feel respected without the team bearing too much risk.
In fact, a contract for JPP structured like Quinn's makes a lot of sense if they aren't convinced about JPP's work ethic.
In the next group, JPP is near the top. No way do I rank Ansah or Bennett ahead of JPP. I would not take them going forward either. I don't expect either to outperform JPP over the next 5 years.
The main problem I see with JPP is not his play but unreasonable expectations from fans (not you but far too many).
The guy is one of the best run defending DL in the league and a very good pass rusher. I also think his effort is outstanding. He plays hard.
The only issue for me on the pass rush is he tends to give up on the rush too much and look to knock down passes too often. For this, I blame the coaches for not correcting it (although it did seem to get much better last year).
Another thing I love about JPP is he kicks the hell out of Williams in WAS every game and does it often to the LT in Dallas too.
He steps up vs NFC east teams.
We're going to see a slim downed JPP. He'll be a big time player this year.
The team is a lot different(thin on starting DE talent) which is why I think Odi has an excellent shot to win the starting job (plus he's an ass kicker vs the run).
About JPP, the price is crazy high. Watt you do it for without thinking twice. There isn't another DE in the NFL right now that is a no brainer at that price.
But I really want to see JPP on the Giants the next 5 years. I hope they work it out.
He's got a big paycheck waiting so we'll see his best this year. It will suck to lose him. He's only 26. I want him back and playing with Odi for 5 more years.
What do you guys mean when you refer to a pass rusher as a JAG, I've never heard that before
Whoops, duh. Thanks
$15,618,583 initially guaranteed (Signing Bonus + 2014 base + 2015 Roster Bonus)
2015, 2016, 2017 Base Salaries Fully guarantee on the 5th league day of respective year.
2015 Roster Bonus: $10,233,201 (paid 3rd day of 2015)
2016 Roster Bonus: $2.424,242 (paid 5th league day of 2015)
2017 Roster Bonus: $3,633,363 (paid 5th league day of 2016)
2018 Roster Bonus: $1,111,111, paid 3rd league day of 2018)
2019 Roster Bonus: $1,121,211 (paid 3rd league day of 2019)
Interesting that it is reported in the "Guaranteed" part of their site that he is guaranteed $41MM, while the reality per the contract notes is very different.
Guaranteeing a guy his full-year salary (for that year) once he's five days into the league year is a relatively small commitment. It basically protects the player through the first week of the season only.
That's because a veteran (who hasn't collected termination pay previously) who is on the roster on the first week of the season gets his full year's salary guaranteed even if he's subsequently cut.
Previously there was a race to announce the largest overall contracts, even though much of it was never intended to be earned. We learned to pay close attention to the "guaranteed" money. With that now the focus we find that those numbers don't really mean that much, actually.
It's all in the contract details.
I see our "Four Aces" as Moore, Hankins, Ayers and JPP. I see Kennard as our "Maverick" type lining up on passing downs to help create mis-matches galore.
As the season goes on, I see our rotation keeping the DL fresh and lively. This is the "KEY" group for this defense because it is deep.
But nothing happens unless Moore, Bromley, Kuhn ((assuming he sticks and I think he has a good chance over aging Jenkins) develop. They are the 4th year or less bodies with upside.
Interesting that it is reported in the "Guaranteed" part of their site that he is guaranteed $41MM, while the reality per the contract notes is very different.
Guaranteeing a guy his full-year salary (for that year) once he's five days into the league year is a relatively small commitment. It basically protects the player through the first week of the season only.
That's because a veteran (who hasn't collected termination pay previously) who is on the roster on the first week of the season gets his full year's salary guaranteed even if he's subsequently cut.
Previously there was a race to announce the largest overall contracts, even though much of it was never intended to be earned. We learned to pay close attention to the "guaranteed" money. With that now the focus we find that those numbers don't really mean that much, actually.
It's all in the contract details.
I think you're mixing dates. Vets on the roster for week 1 (game 1) are guaranteed their fully year's salary even if subsequently cut. The vesting clause "5 days into the league year" corresponds to (roughly) the start of Free Agency.
So as of now Quinn's 2015 base is fully guaranteed, but if something were to happen between now and March 2016 to make the Rams want to part ways with him, Quinn would never see his 2016/2017 "guaranteed" base salaries.
He is nothing special. In 2011 he was surrounded by Tuck and Osi and Kiwi.
2012-2013 nothing special. 2014, first 11 games...JAG
Yeah, he's kind of like Ron Dayne, no?
JPP is one of those players who leaves and everyone is going to say "we should have never let JPP go" - especially if he winds up in the NFC East.