Stuck at work today and it's going to be a long, boring day. So let's talk FF.
Where are you drafting LeVeon Bell in a PPR league? He would have been the likely consensus #1 overall, if not for the 3 game suspension. Would you still take him in the first round or Top 5 even, knowing he's missing at least 3 games this season?
It's tempting to take him high still and just make sure you draft a couple of RBs that should be good early in the season (like a Tre Mason who should carry the load early until Gurley is ready). Even if you struggle early, as long as you still make the playoffs you'll have Bell at that point. Obviously the downside is that you could lose those first 3 games without your #1 pick, and if he misses any other games due to injury you might miss the playoffs entirely.
I would also say, that I'm not targeting Deangelo Williams if I do take Bell. Pittsburgh has 3 tough matchups (@NE, SF, @ STL) for the run in those first 3 games, and I don't think Deangelo is going to do a whole lot in those games.
Feel free to discuss Bell or any other FF topics.
Even if he does return to form, the chances of him outscoring guys like Charles, AP, Lacy, Lynch, and the slew of WRs are very minimal. I would probably rank my rbs in a PPR league like this:
Charles
AP
Lacy
Lynch
Foster
Forte
Bell
McCoy
Murray
So as my 6th RB, he would probably slip to round 2 as guys like Brown, Bryant, OBJ, Jones are possible first round targetrs in PPR. Even Rodgers/Luck will go in round 1 in my league since QBs are worth a little more.
Rbs are interesting this year since most teams dont have the bellcow like in years past. One guy I noticed slipping in a lot of draft is Hyde. I think he's a guy who can make or break a lot of teams this year. High risk/High reward.
And sign me up for being on the Brandon Cooks bandwagon. In PPR he is being drafted somewhere between 11-15. I think he cracks top 10 and gets near 100 catches if not more.
I'm personally hoping for a back of the first round pick, and probably grab him in the first 2 rounds with Odell being the 2nd around pick ~14.
In the AFC, I am staying away from Miami backs. They have too many to count. The winner could put up big numbers in that offense. I just don't want to guess wrong on the guy or have it be a time share. McCoy is McCoy. That offense has so many weapons but no QB and a questionable OL so I think McCoy will get overdrafted and I am not touching him in the first round. The Jets should be in the same position they have been in year's past so unless it is later in the draft I am not looking at their backs. NE is NE and I'm not playing that guessing game from week to week. Gore could be solid but he probably won't catch many passes and that OL is a mess. Fifth round might be the earliest I look at him. In Tennessee I can see Mariota helping out the RB. They should have a solid OL but is it going to be Sankey, Cobb or someone else. This would have to be a late round pick for me. I am not a big fan of Yeldon but he has a great opportunity. I would say fifth round at the earliest for me because of the downside but there is upside too. Foster is Foster but I think he should go where he was going last year which was the end of the second to early third. His touches will probably be limited so I'm cautious about him. Jeremy Hill was awesome as a rookie and should be a good play. This might be the best combo in the league as they want to run the ball and both Bernard and Hill should be starters every week depending on how good your roster is. I think they balance each other well and with the lack of true workhorses in today's NFL this would be a great combo to get on draft day. With Kubiak leaving Baltimore I am staying away from Forsett. They tried to give the job to a few other players last year but couldn't take it away from Forsett. I don't expect Forsett to hang onto the job all year long. They also got Tresman so it will be a different offense. I don't know how Forsett fits in. Jamaal Charles is still a first round pick. If you take him make sure you get Knile Davis later on as he has shown to be pretty solid. Melvin Gordon should be really good this year but figuring out when to take him is key. Latavius Murray is another guy that could explode too so if you can get him at the end of the second or beginning of the third then that should be a good spot for him.
Bell had 12 games with 5 or more catches last season. In the 4 games he didn't have at least 5 catches, he still scored 17.7, 14.5, 30.2, and 14.2 points. Getting a guaranteed 14+ points a game is tremendous value. Charles for example had 6 games out of 15 where he scored less than 14 last season.
That's understandable but going by your same evaluation of week to week consistency I see Beckham as better than Dez. Brown is usually pretty good too but I don't have the numbers in front of me. I actually think Vereen and Cruz will help Beckham out. It is only natural that his targets go down but his production could go up. I think the Rams game made that clear to me. They were cheap shoting Beckham and somewhat holding him in check but it only took one or two plays for him to totally change that around. Beckham was moved all over the offense as a rookie to take advantage of his talent really because of necessity since we didn't really have anything else. If he could learn all that as a rookie and produce like he did will all the defensive attention then I don't see how he cannot improve this year. Maybe he doesn't have the crazy games he had last year but he should be consistent every week and I value that more, like you, then necessarily having the best numbers at the end of the year.
Fair point on Dez, he was under 14 in 6 of 16 last season and had another one where he was at 14.2. Plus he was bailed out in 3 games with short TDs when he only had a 2 or 3 catches. I think with Murray gone, his numbers will go up a bit but it's fair to put OBJ over him from the consistency standpoint.
We get 1 keeper, and I'm having difficulty making my decision (I have put this out there before)
I can get AP for my first rounder
I can get Leveon Bell for my 2nd
I can get Andrew Luck for my 3rd
After that...
Emmanuel Sanders 6th
Russel Wilson 7th
Mark Ingram 12th
Tre Mason 13th
Larry Donnell Undrafted
Would love to hear some opinions
Sanders and Ingram are probably about 3rd round picks, so by far Ingram is the best value. I'd probably still go Bell or Luck, as you aren't getting a player in either the 2nd or 3rd as good and the upside outweighs the value of Ingram for me.
Regarding the RBs. I agree with Dep's top 4-5. Those are probably the only guys I would take in the first round. However, I think McCoy should probably move up a bit higher and Murray may get screwed by the game plan in Philly.
I will spend some time putting together the list of players I will NOT draft. Of course, I don't mean I would not draft these guys if they were available in the last round....but I am not drafting them where they will most likely be taken. A perfect example of this is Calvin Johnson. From a fantasy perspective, the guy is over rated. He will have a huge week and then nothing for two weeks. Then another big week and then hurt for another two weeks. In fantasy, you are better off with the guy who gives you a consistent 12 points each week vs 25 and then 3 the next.
The biggest question for me right now is QB. Who will this year's fantasy QB of the year be? Potentially Luck.
I totally agree. And here is another ... Tannehill. His OL should be better this year. His run game should be better. His defense should be better. Landry should improve. They drafted Parker. Look at his stats last year. I wouldn't gamble with him being my number one but if you can get him as a number two then that is a homerun. Look at how consistent he was last year.