Metrics say Tulowitzki is overrated. Probably due to injuries taking their toll. He also has 13 GIDP.
Obviously, we would all take him on the team in a heartbeat. But his peripherals are huge warning signs, regarding future performance. If the Wilpons were willing to spend, you take the risk. But if taking on Tulo's contract means letting guys letting some of the pitchers walk in a few year, then no thanks.
and that's why advance metrics have become completely overdone. Tulo =Tejada and Tulo < Granderson.
Because the computer says so. Maybe the Rockies will package Tulo and Cargo for Granderson? Though, the Rox may have to add some prospects.
If used judiciously advanced metrics are very informative. But, yes, you have to take them as just one part of the puzzle.
We all know Tulo is way better than Tejada. But the fact that their WAR are almost identical is something to consider. Tulo's defense seems really to have declined, no doubt because of injuries.
and that's why advance metrics have become completely overdone. Tulo =Tejada and Tulo < Granderson.
Because the computer says so. Maybe the Rockies will package Tulo and Cargo for Granderson? Though, the Rox may have to add some prospects.
If used judiciously advanced metrics are very informative. But, yes, you have to take them as just one part of the puzzle.
We all know Tulo is way better than Tejada. But the fact that their WAR are almost identical is something to consider. Tulo's defense seems really to have declined, no doubt because of injuries.
Anybody would take Tulo over Tejada but how about looking at it to tell that Tulo really isn't having the best year? Why is this so hard for people to comprehend? Tull's 2015 pales in comparison to a "Tulo in his prime year" Its also important to point out considering he has had a series of hip injuries and might even need the" A-Rod procedure" soon. And I really don't get why people think wRC+ is some advanced thing. Its freaking essentially OPS which is EXTREMELY useful when looking at a players offensive value. This isn't some hoky poky thing. lol
2010 (Tulo's best year by advanced stats, 5.6 fWAR)
.315 / .380 / .568 (27 HRs, 95 RBIs, 529 PA's)
2015
.305 / .353 / .478 (on pace for 20 HRs, 89 RBIs, 540 PA's)
Right now his K rate is higher so that's a concern I suppose and obviously it's possible his defense has gone backwards (though he is still rated pretty well there with a 0 DRS). But generally speaking his main numbers are pretty similar across the board. Maybe this year he's been a little over aggressive or just trying to do a too much? I'm most encouraged by his road numbers honestly.
but if they changed their mind I'd be all over him. I'd also see if the Cubs would deal Russell.
If I'm giving up a kings ransom its for guys who can be in their prime with the pitching core, not injured or injury prone 30 year olds at athleticism-dependent positions like Gomez and Tulo.
I'm also leery to give up on Lagares. He's having his worst season to so far but he's still a 26 year old GG winner at one of the most important defensive positions. And he was solid offensively last year. He was looking like a Simmons caliber player in 2014.
I also don't like trotting out a corner outfielder in CF to add a .800 OPS outfielder like Bruce or Cespedes.
Gomez or Parra are bats that would make the biggest impact for this team. Because they can play CF and bat leadoff. Letting them put Granderson in the cleanup spot
if they really think he's done then 3rd base is the position to upgrade.
Frazier makes a ton of sense especially because he can play first if Duda continues sucking. I am leery about trading for him off of his best season by far.
We have Murphy, Uribe, and still possibly Wright in September for third. Im sure Johnson could play there in a pinch too. Hell add Flores and Tejada to the list. Hell, even Cuddyer as a 7th option has tons of games at third if it were an emergency!
Think we are covered at third now.
unfortunate about Frazier but the Mets will need to add someone there
We need some sort of definitive prognosis on him before we can really address it, IMO. That's why Uribe was a good pick up. It keeps us covered there with depth for the remainder of 2015 even if Wright doesn't return but we haven't done anything that makes putting Wright back in the lineup complicated if he is somehow able to return.
until 2017 at the earliest. Wright is going to attempt a comeback this year and play a bit in September. Then he's going to go through an entire offseason of treatment and come up with a plan on how to manage this. He will absolutely still be in the mix in 2016, although we will have to have some insurance policy like Uribe. If he fails to play at a respectable level after 2016, THEN... maybe he retires... but we are a ways away from that.
Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN 13s14 seconds ago
Joel Sherman reports Mets now more interested in trading for setup man than bat. Remember, Jenrry Mejia ineligible for postseason.
The Met's lineup is really up in the air long term
They don't have a single good player they can count on for the next few years. You hope Conforto can be as good as we think, TdA can stay health, Duda and Lageres can rebound and Herrera or Flores can be good at 2B, etc., but there's not one guy who next season you can count on to be a solid player. Its not to say a few of the above guys won't be, but we don't know for (nearly) sure who it will be.
I'd like to see them move anyone but the 4 pitchers, Familia and Conforto to get a young, cornerstone type position player to build around. Not sure who though.
I am with you on Bruce 100%.. but what do you do if we acquire him? Send Conforto back down or try sliding Granderson into CF? I'm not sure how it would work alignment-wise.
Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN 13s14 seconds ago
Joel Sherman reports Mets now more interested in trading for setup man than bat. Remember, Jenrry Mejia ineligible for postseason.
push for Bruce. Enough discussing Frazier. He'd cost one of those "OMG ALL of that? deals". Syndergaard + significantly more
He's having his first superstar type season at 29. Do you really think he'd bring back a superstar return based on him producing at this level for one season at 29?
with adding a reliever I guess if we aren't giving up huge prospects. Im far more worried about getting into the postseason first however. Parnell, Robles, and even a starter like Matz could be a late inning option if he isn't starting. Typical rules kind of get thrown out the window. Look at Bumgarner last year. You can even bring in deGrom to close out a Harvey start if its the WS.
I'm all for a setup man, but IMO bat is still a bigger priority
unless they are worried about Blevins. I know we lose Mejia for postseason, but we'd also likely have at least 1 of the starters in the pen. Even guys like Verrett and Montero could end being internal possibilities.
it prevents a huge logjam if you decide Conforto and Granderson are your "guys" next year.
Still love Bruce but then you have three guys for two spots heading into 2016 and you likely HAVE to find a taker for Granderson in the offseason.
Think Gomez and Tulo actually do make most sense position wise if you are considering 2016 although Ive voiced my complaints on both. A rental like Cespedes gives us a fantastic shot this year and you worry about the offseason in the offseason.
push for Bruce. Enough discussing Frazier. He'd cost one of those "OMG ALL of that? deals". Syndergaard + significantly more
He's having his first superstar type season at 29. Do you really think he'd bring back a superstar return based on him producing at this level for one season at 29?
What? His 2015 is a replica of nearly every season he's ever had. Exact opposite of a "first superstar season". He has 2 top 10 MVP voting seasons already
I am with you on Bruce 100%.. but what do you do if we acquire him? Send Conforto back down or try sliding Granderson into CF? I'm not sure how it would work alignment-wise.
The Mets reportedly really are making a push for him. Not my opinion. I would try Granderson in CF, can't be any worse than what Lagares is giving them but obviously the Mets have a plan.
push for Bruce. Enough discussing Frazier. He'd cost one of those "OMG ALL of that? deals". Syndergaard + significantly more
He's having his first superstar type season at 29. Do you really think he'd bring back a superstar return based on him producing at this level for one season at 29?
What? His 2015 is a replica of nearly every season he's ever had. Exact opposite of a "first superstar season". He has 2 top 10 MVP voting seasons already
Think he is talking about Frazier, not Bruce.
Conforto's first "welcome to the big leagues" moment right there
This game very well may come down to who doesn't make key mistakes. Hopefully the guys keep their heads in the game and don't make any errors, both physical and mental.
Is Conforto and Bruce MINUS the boatload of prospects it took to get him as your CO in 2016 that big of an upgrade over Conforto and Granderon? Sure he's younger and probably better overall but not sure its a HUGE difference.
Assuming we had to dump Granderosn in the offseason because of Bruce....
has been worth 2.6, , 3.2, 4.8 and now 4.0 WAR, he was an above average regular in 2012, a star in 2013, elite last year and an MVP caliber player this year. Late bloomer sure but far from 1 big season.
26 players in baseball were more valuable than Frazier last year, this year 7.
Since opening day 2014 10 players have been better, since opening day 2013, 15 players have been better. His contract is incredible. His price would be IMMENSE.
in CF a bit this year down the stretch but as he gets older I don't think you'd want to pencil him in CF long term and in to next season. Not as a permanent solution anyway.
#Dodgers lineup: Pederson CF, Kendrick 2B, Gonzalez 1B, Turner 3B, Grandal C, Puig RF, Ethier LF, Rollins SS, Greinke P.
@msimonespn
An image showing how Mets OF Michael Conforto was pitched to in each AB Saturday. And how he did (hint: well!)
@msimonespn
An image showing how Mets OF Michael Conforto was pitched to in each AB Saturday. And how he did (hint: well!)
Was it his 4th AB that they shifted against him. If so Dodgers did a horrendous job
A) scouting him
B) pitching to him
Tulowitzki: 1.4
Tejada: 1.3
wRC+ 2015:
Granderson: 119
Duda: 118
Tulowitzki: 111
Metrics say Tulowitzki is overrated. Probably due to injuries taking their toll. He also has 13 GIDP.
Obviously, we would all take him on the team in a heartbeat. But his peripherals are huge warning signs, regarding future performance. If the Wilpons were willing to spend, you take the risk. But if taking on Tulo's contract means letting guys letting some of the pitchers walk in a few year, then no thanks.
Because the computer says so. Maybe the Rockies will package Tulo and Cargo for Granderson? Though, the Rox may have to add some prospects.
Because the computer says so. Maybe the Rockies will package Tulo and Cargo for Granderson? Though, the Rox may have to add some prospects.
If used judiciously advanced metrics are very informative. But, yes, you have to take them as just one part of the puzzle.
We all know Tulo is way better than Tejada. But the fact that their WAR are almost identical is something to consider. Tulo's defense seems really to have declined, no doubt because of injuries.
@msimonespn
An image showing how Mets OF Michael Conforto was pitched to in each AB Saturday. And how he did (hint: well!)
Conforto swings at strikes. That's what you like about him. The only exception is outside fastballs, which he tries to take the other way.
But his ability to to lay off the low inside pitch is impressive. Duda still can't do it.
Quote:
and that's why advance metrics have become completely overdone. Tulo =Tejada and Tulo < Granderson.
Because the computer says so. Maybe the Rockies will package Tulo and Cargo for Granderson? Though, the Rox may have to add some prospects.
If used judiciously advanced metrics are very informative. But, yes, you have to take them as just one part of the puzzle.
We all know Tulo is way better than Tejada. But the fact that their WAR are almost identical is something to consider. Tulo's defense seems really to have declined, no doubt because of injuries.
Anybody would take Tulo over Tejada but how about looking at it to tell that Tulo really isn't having the best year? Why is this so hard for people to comprehend? Tull's 2015 pales in comparison to a "Tulo in his prime year" Its also important to point out considering he has had a series of hip injuries and might even need the" A-Rod procedure" soon. And I really don't get why people think wRC+ is some advanced thing. Its freaking essentially OPS which is EXTREMELY useful when looking at a players offensive value. This isn't some hoky poky thing. lol
.315 / .380 / .568 (27 HRs, 95 RBIs, 529 PA's)
2015
.305 / .353 / .478 (on pace for 20 HRs, 89 RBIs, 540 PA's)
Right now his K rate is higher so that's a concern I suppose and obviously it's possible his defense has gone backwards (though he is still rated pretty well there with a 0 DRS). But generally speaking his main numbers are pretty similar across the board. Maybe this year he's been a little over aggressive or just trying to do a too much? I'm most encouraged by his road numbers honestly.
If I'm giving up a kings ransom its for guys who can be in their prime with the pitching core, not injured or injury prone 30 year olds at athleticism-dependent positions like Gomez and Tulo.
I'm also leery to give up on Lagares. He's having his worst season to so far but he's still a 26 year old GG winner at one of the most important defensive positions. And he was solid offensively last year. He was looking like a Simmons caliber player in 2014.
I also don't like trotting out a corner outfielder in CF to add a .800 OPS outfielder like Bruce or Cespedes.
I also heard Justin Turner on the radio say, Marlon Byrd was the one who helped him turn it around offensively.
Frazier makes a ton of sense especially because he can play first if Duda continues sucking. I am leery about trading for him off of his best season by far.
Frazier would cost a TON right now and by all accounts, he's really not even available. The Reds want to hang onto him.
We have Murphy, Uribe, and still possibly Wright in September for third. Im sure Johnson could play there in a pinch too. Hell add Flores and Tejada to the list. Hell, even Cuddyer as a 7th option has tons of games at third if it were an emergency!
Think we are covered at third now.
Joel Sherman reports Mets now more interested in trading for setup man than bat. Remember, Jenrry Mejia ineligible for postseason.
I'd like to see them move anyone but the 4 pitchers, Familia and Conforto to get a young, cornerstone type position player to build around. Not sure who though.
Joel Sherman reports Mets now more interested in trading for setup man than bat. Remember, Jenrry Mejia ineligible for postseason.
K-Rod would make a lot of sense.
He's having his first superstar type season at 29. Do you really think he'd bring back a superstar return based on him producing at this level for one season at 29?
Still love Bruce but then you have three guys for two spots heading into 2016 and you likely HAVE to find a taker for Granderson in the offseason.
Think Gomez and Tulo actually do make most sense position wise if you are considering 2016 although Ive voiced my complaints on both. A rental like Cespedes gives us a fantastic shot this year and you worry about the offseason in the offseason.
Quote:
push for Bruce. Enough discussing Frazier. He'd cost one of those "OMG ALL of that? deals". Syndergaard + significantly more
He's having his first superstar type season at 29. Do you really think he'd bring back a superstar return based on him producing at this level for one season at 29?
What? His 2015 is a replica of nearly every season he's ever had. Exact opposite of a "first superstar season". He has 2 top 10 MVP voting seasons already
The Mets reportedly really are making a push for him. Not my opinion. I would try Granderson in CF, can't be any worse than what Lagares is giving them but obviously the Mets have a plan.
Quote:
In comment 12386192 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
push for Bruce. Enough discussing Frazier. He'd cost one of those "OMG ALL of that? deals". Syndergaard + significantly more
He's having his first superstar type season at 29. Do you really think he'd bring back a superstar return based on him producing at this level for one season at 29?
What? His 2015 is a replica of nearly every season he's ever had. Exact opposite of a "first superstar season". He has 2 top 10 MVP voting seasons already
Think he is talking about Frazier, not Bruce.
2010- 5.1 fWAR, .281/.353/.493 (which came with a .334 BABIP vs. career .293), this season .253/.338/.470, .294 BABIP #Mets
Bruce's second best season ever 2013 (finished 10th in MVP voting) .262/.329/.478, 4.2 fWAR
100% cool with people not wanting to give up X for Bruce but this idea he's suddenly "good" is flat out false. No way around it
This game very well may come down to who doesn't make key mistakes. Hopefully the guys keep their heads in the game and don't make any errors, both physical and mental.
Is Conforto and Bruce MINUS the boatload of prospects it took to get him as your CO in 2016 that big of an upgrade over Conforto and Granderon? Sure he's younger and probably better overall but not sure its a HUGE difference.
Assuming we had to dump Granderosn in the offseason because of Bruce....
26 players in baseball were more valuable than Frazier last year, this year 7.
Since opening day 2014 10 players have been better, since opening day 2013, 15 players have been better. His contract is incredible. His price would be IMMENSE.