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NFT: 1st GOP Presidential Debate: Who’ll be In, Who’ll be Out?

sphinx : 7/27/2015 7:58 pm
Quote:
Fox News, which is hosting the first debate next Thursday in Cleveland, says that they will include the top 10 candidates from an average of the five most recent national polls. But Fox News isn’t saying which polls they will use to calculate their average, leaving the rest of us to play a guessing game. [...]

Who's In

According to an ABC News analysis of five recent major national polls on July 27 ... Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson.

Who's Out

Another three candidates are almost certainly going to miss the mark. Carly Fiorina, George Pataki and Lindsey Graham [...]

Chris Christie and Rick Perry currently hold the last two spots on the debate stage. John Kasich, who just announced his candidacy last week, misses the debate stage by just two-tenths of a percentage point. Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal are close behind, but still watching from home on Aug. 6.

FULL STANDINGS (as of July 27):

1. Trump – 18 percent

2. Bush – 14 percent

3. Walker – 11 percent

4. Rubio – 6 percent

T5. Paul – 6 percent

T5. Cruz – 6 percent

7. Huckabee – 6 percent

8. Carson – 5 percent

9. Christie – 3.0 percent

10. Perry – 2.2 percent

11. Kasich – 2.0 percent

12. Santorum – 1.6 percent

13. Jindal – 1.4 percent

14. Fiorina – 0.8 percent

15. Pataki – 0.6 percent

16. Graham – 0.2 percent

[...]


Link - ( New Window )
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It'll be the most watched primary debate in history  
Ben in Tampa : 7/27/2015 8:02 pm : link
With Trump on the marquee. Fox News has got to be salivating at the ratings potential of this debate.

Also, I believe the losers get a pre-debate debate at 5 pm before the real one starts.
Cannot wait  
UConn4523 : 7/27/2015 8:10 pm : link
must see TV to see how the rest handle the idiocy of Trump. It'll be like summer slam without the wrestling.
Trump has shown  
SirSirob : 7/27/2015 8:14 pm : link
Candidates that the base wants red meat and not consultant-crafted language. I think a few of them will follow his lead.

Interesting dynamics

Trump dislikes Jeb
Perry dislikes Trump
Christie dislikes Rand
Cruz and Trump like each other
____________  
I am Ninja : 7/27/2015 8:15 pm : link
Could they (the GOP bosses) have a real problem on their hands if Trump kills it? Would they say fuck it and hitch their wagon to him?
Would like to see Kasich in it  
Mike in NY : 7/27/2015 8:16 pm : link
.
RE: ____________  
BlackLight : 7/27/2015 8:23 pm : link
In comment 12388119 I am Ninja said:
Quote:
Could they (the GOP bosses) have a real problem on their hands if Trump kills it? Would they say fuck it and hitch their wagon to him?


No. There's no reason to publicly back anyone this early. And they have to know that Trump is about as certain to lose the general election as any candidate in the field.
not going to be great  
giantfan2000 : 7/27/2015 8:41 pm : link
sorry but 10 people is way way too many for any debate

it is going to just be a mess

everyone will just be attacking trump, and trying to be quoted with rehearsed soundbites

I can hear the circus music already!  
Sarasota-Phil : 7/27/2015 8:43 pm : link
I honestly think trump is trying to rally the base  
bradshaw44 : 7/27/2015 8:56 pm : link
And then throw all of his support behind Cruz.

According to Pete in Atlanta, I should leave the USA  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/27/2015 8:56 pm : link
Because I think Kasich, a credible individual, should be participating instead of Huckabee.

I still think Walker wins the nomination.
who cares over a year out?  
ctc in ftmyers : 7/27/2015 9:07 pm : link
I won't be watching. I'm sure 90% of the county won't be either.
RE: I honestly think trump is trying to rally the base  
Deej : 7/27/2015 9:09 pm : link
In comment 12388181 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
And then throw all of his support behind Cruz.


I think Trump is in it for Trump. It's kind of his thing. He doesnt give a half shit about the base or the party.
RE: I can hear the circus music already!  
Bill L : 7/27/2015 9:16 pm : link
In comment 12388171 Sarasota-Phil said:
Quote:

That's messed up. And people get mad when someone questions Hillary...
HRC has gotten more negative press coverage  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/27/2015 9:21 pm : link
than any candidate by far. Their article on Friday was complete garbage & totally unbecoming of the NYT. They got taken for a ride.

They've been awful this election season.
Way to miss the point  
Bill L : 7/27/2015 9:22 pm : link
.
I thought I might watch this,  
giantgiantfan : 7/27/2015 9:23 pm : link
but as it gets closer I think I might just watch the highlights. I have no interest in hearing what any of these guys have to say outside of Trump and Paul.
I don't give a damn what your point was.  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/27/2015 9:25 pm : link
You brought up HRC in a way that was obviously a dig at her. And I'm going to defend her from some ludicrous charges that I'm sure buford & Co. are cooking up right now.
Some of the GOP candidates are clowns  
Deej : 7/27/2015 9:30 pm : link
but it's really unfair to the serious people in the race. Even serious guys who have little chance of winning.
RE: Way to miss the point  
Bill L : 7/27/2015 9:31 pm : link
In comment 12388212 Bill L said:
Quote:
.

It actually wasn't a dig at her, but seeing as merely bringing up her name made you all frothy, can you imagine how you'd respond if I gave her a squirting flower and floppy shoes?
Whatever helps you sleep at night  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/27/2015 9:34 pm : link
It obviously wasn't a dig at HRC...

Notice how when you do the '....', it's implied you are saying more.
Ugh  
Bill L : 7/27/2015 9:36 pm : link
....
RE: RE: I can hear the circus music already!  
rut17 : 7/27/2015 9:36 pm : link
In comment 12388205 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 12388171 Sarasota-Phil said:


Quote:





That's messed up. And people get mad when someone questions Hillary...


Sucks when someone insults your candidates eh?
For the record, I think this is field has some serious  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/27/2015 9:40 pm : link
candidates. I like Kasich; I don't agree with him on much, but if he was the nominee, I wouldn't mind him. Same with Paul & Pataki.

I don't think Trump lasts. I despises all the Bushes, & think Jeb can't hide his last name forever. Rubio scares me as a Democrat. Walker could be formidable.

August 6th will be interesting. I'm expecting people to go after Trump.
Until proven otherwise  
bc4life : 7/27/2015 10:01 pm : link
Walker seems like a one issue candidate (I took on the unions).

Regardless of people's civil liberties concerns, I don't think the average person is comfortable with Paul re: National Security.

Carson and Cruz are wasting everyone's time participating in the debate. Same-same Huckabee - but he's been there before.

Why cant Perry catch on?  
Deej : 7/27/2015 10:04 pm : link
successful governor (much more so than a lot of these other govs), robustly conservative etc.

Is it the oops thing? Did it prove what some people already thought?
If they're smart  
bc4life : 7/27/2015 10:06 pm : link
they won't go after Trump.

He has this mirror like quality - he's more effective when reflecting off another candidate.

The smart ones will let him self-destruct. Clearly does not have any real vision or policy expertise. It's all about fireworks - and that is only entertaining for so long.
Trump is sitting at one in the polls, that gives him the most to  
wgenesis123 : 7/27/2015 10:36 pm : link
lose at this point in time. Someone like Christie sitting at 9 will have the most to gain from the debate. He is pretty comfortable when it is just him taking questions from an audience, curious if he can do the same here.
I hope Trump asks  
Bleedin Blue : 7/27/2015 10:43 pm : link
Cruz to produce his birth certificate😜 LOL! Should be fun to watch!
I hope they come after the Donald  
charlito : 7/28/2015 3:11 am : link
So he can roast them.
RE: HRC has gotten more negative press coverage  
buford : 7/28/2015 6:42 am : link
In comment 12388211 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
than any candidate by far. Their article on Friday was complete garbage & totally unbecoming of the NYT. They got taken for a ride.

They've been awful this election season.


You mean they aren't toeing the line as usual? And Hillary deserves all the bad press she gets. She choose to put her emails on that server. I guess the fallout from it isn't as bad as if all her emails were exposed.
RE: I don't give a damn what your point was.  
buford : 7/28/2015 6:42 am : link
In comment 12388216 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
You brought up HRC in a way that was obviously a dig at her. And I'm going to defend her from some ludicrous charges that I'm sure buford & Co. are cooking up right now.


I don't have to make up any charges. There is plenty there already.
buford  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/28/2015 7:00 am : link
What are the charges? What are the nefarious things that HRC has done?
& again, that NYT article last week  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/28/2015 7:02 am : link
was garbage, or as a NYT writer put it, a 'mess'.

But the 'liberal media', which for decades has included the NYT, just loves HRC.
Cat fight!  
WideRight : 7/28/2015 8:08 am : link
.
RE: & again, that NYT article last week  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 8:35 am : link
In comment 12388480 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
was garbage, or as a NYT writer put it, a 'mess'.

But the 'liberal media', which for decades has included the NYT, just loves HRC.


The NYT was erroneous and (apparently under pressure from the campaign) corrected.

But it wasn't garbage to the extent that the IG did call for an investigation. A security investigation, not a criminal one. And Clinton was not named as a target. The did explicitly state that, in direct contradiction to her public statements, she had classified material on her email and that it was not classified after the fact but from the moment of inception. It does not mean anything criminal.

It's almost a split the baby for all sides, terrible writing giving a misleading impression, but not garbage either.
RE: buford  
buford : 7/28/2015 8:50 am : link
In comment 12388479 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
What are the charges? What are the nefarious things that HRC has done?


Do you really want me to go into that...it's a fairly long list, but they all have one thing in common. She is a selfish, entitled morally bankrupt person who will do anything to get and keep power.
RE: According to Pete in Atlanta, I should leave the USA  
Peter in Atl : 7/28/2015 8:59 am : link
In comment 12388183 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Because I think Kasich, a credible individual, should be participating instead of Huckabee.

I still think Walker wins the nomination.


No, shitforbrains, you should leave for your constant "What a country" bitching.
RE: RE: buford  
x meadowlander : 7/28/2015 9:03 am : link
In comment 12388599 buford said:
Quote:
In comment 12388479 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


What are the charges? What are the nefarious things that HRC has done?



Do you really want me to go into that...it's a fairly long list, but they all have one thing in common. She is a selfish, entitled morally bankrupt person who will do anything to get and keep power.
I'd like to see the list. :)
RE: RE: RE: buford  
schabadoo : 7/28/2015 9:06 am : link
In comment 12388617 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
In comment 12388599 buford said:


Quote:


In comment 12388479 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


What are the charges? What are the nefarious things that HRC has done?



Do you really want me to go into that...it's a fairly long list, but they all have one thing in common. She is a selfish, entitled morally bankrupt person who will do anything to get and keep power.

I'd like to see the list. :)


Just a warning, I think Travelgate and Vince Foster make an appearance.
There are zero outstanding charges against HRC  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 9:13 am : link
Just as an aside, although you might not like it, Travelgate was actually a thing. I don't know HRC's involvement but Billy Ray Dale's life was fucked over because of spurious charges. FBI and IRS sic'ed on him and the ridiculous part was, it was all to cover relieving him of an at will job. Nothing illegal, but my God how can you treat a person that way? I understand why you would have no empathy but it is a very awful thing when you use the power of the gov't to target an individual. IMO.
I think they'll find a way to squeeze  
eclipz928 : 7/28/2015 9:14 am : link
Kasich in there, probably add an 11th podium and explain that he made it because of a tie.

Not sure it's really that big of a deal though - these early primary debates aren't actually "debates". Theyre just an opportunity for the candidates to each have 4 minutes of time to give their sales pitch on television.

Everyone looking forward to that big Trump/Christie "showdown" are going to be really disappointed.
RE: I think they'll find a way to squeeze  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 9:16 am : link
In comment 12388636 eclipz928 said:
Quote:
Kasich in there, probably add an 11th podium and explain that he made it because of a tie.

Not sure it's really that big of a deal though - these early primary debates aren't actually "debates". Theyre just an opportunity for the candidates to each have 4 minutes of time to give their sales pitch on television.

Everyone looking forward to that big Trump/Christie "showdown" are going to be really disappointed.


That's kind of too bad. They need to begin winnowing.
no one absolutely no one would look better with a pie in the face  
gtt350 : 7/28/2015 10:01 am : link
than Hillary
I think Fox recognizes  
eclipz928 : 7/28/2015 10:01 am : link
that it would be an embarrassment to leave out someone as qualified as Kasich from a debate that will be hosted by his home state. Couldn't imagine a debate being held in Trenton that didn't include Chris Christie.

Once we get to the late fall and people start paying attention, the field will naturally constrict itself - but i think a lot of these guys will still be in play all the way through the convention. Its gonna be craziness for the next 14 months.
Trump's complete disregard for political correctness is  
gtt350 : 7/28/2015 10:23 am : link
somewhat refreshing in a crazy sort of way
Real Clear Politics  
njm : 7/28/2015 10:50 am : link
Their summary of polls has Kasich in the Top 10 in every poll taken since his announcement. Expect him to be at the grown-ups debate. The questions interesting to me are:

1. Will the candidates who Trumpified their campaigns to get air time get any benefir from it? The two main "culprits" there are Cruz and Huckabee.

2. Will anyone at the "Kiddie table" debate get some benefit? There will only be 6 on stage, so if the media pays any attention to it there probably a better chance to shine than in the main debate.

3. How will the moderators deal with Trump? With 10 candidates on stage this is the perfect venue for him to throw out unsupported negative one-liners with no time for refutation. Will he interrupt the other candidates and can they control that? Can they keep this as serious as possible given a 10 person field or will they let it become a reality TV clown show and revel in the ratings?
Divide the airtime by ten  
WideRight : 7/28/2015 11:00 am : link
And allow the moderator time for questions.

I can't see how there's going to be anything more substantial than a few sound bites.


Its an advantage for Trump. Hard to attack when you've only got a few seconds.

Its going to be a clusterF@#K. I will not bother watching.
I dont think Trump will  
eclipz928 : 7/28/2015 11:04 am : link
talk over anyone unless he feels he's being attacked. The best thing for anyone who is on stage with him is to simply not engage him.

. . . but that's not going to happen. I'm assuming more than one of those candidates will go into that debate with the strategy of getting into an exchange with Trump for the purpose of drawing more attention to themselves.

I think another challenge will be for the moderator not to antagonize him. Trump is very intuitive. If he gets asked a question that is the least bit slighting to him he'll sniff it out and go off.
RE: RE: & again, that NYT article last week  
Deej : 7/28/2015 11:06 am : link
In comment 12388569 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 12388480 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


was garbage, or as a NYT writer put it, a 'mess'.

But the 'liberal media', which for decades has included the NYT, just loves HRC.



The NYT was erroneous and (apparently under pressure from the campaign) corrected.

But it wasn't garbage to the extent that the IG did call for an investigation. A security investigation, not a criminal one. And Clinton was not named as a target. The did explicitly state that, in direct contradiction to her public statements, she had classified material on her email and that it was not classified after the fact but from the moment of inception. It does not mean anything criminal.

It's almost a split the baby for all sides, terrible writing giving a misleading impression, but not garbage either.


No Bill, the article was hot wet garbage that had to go thru multiple "corrections" where even the corrections are evasive. Moreover, the entirety of the article is written in what can only be described as a highly suggestive but substance free manner. Newsweek demolished the piece.

I cant prove it, but my gut tells me this report's source was Gowdy's committee, and he's being fed nonsense. It isnt the first Clinton-email story the Times has had trouble on this year.
http://www.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-new-york-times-emails-357246 - ( New Window )
here is a more rational debate list of 6  
idiotsavant : 7/28/2015 11:09 am : link
Walker – has a point of view

Rubio – intelligent and charismatic, interesting background

Paul – much more rational and less isolationist than people think

Kasich – touted as a moderate, but perhaps Fiorina or Pataki fit the bill better for this spot

Santorum – (or Fiorina?, she is a decent and smart person)

Jindal – (or Pataki? not a fan of Pataki, but he was surprisingly well spoken on local TV recently)

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