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NFT: 1st GOP Presidential Debate: Who’ll be In, Who’ll be Out?

sphinx : 7/27/2015 7:58 pm
Quote:
Fox News, which is hosting the first debate next Thursday in Cleveland, says that they will include the top 10 candidates from an average of the five most recent national polls. But Fox News isn’t saying which polls they will use to calculate their average, leaving the rest of us to play a guessing game. [...]

Who's In

According to an ABC News analysis of five recent major national polls on July 27 ... Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson.

Who's Out

Another three candidates are almost certainly going to miss the mark. Carly Fiorina, George Pataki and Lindsey Graham [...]

Chris Christie and Rick Perry currently hold the last two spots on the debate stage. John Kasich, who just announced his candidacy last week, misses the debate stage by just two-tenths of a percentage point. Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal are close behind, but still watching from home on Aug. 6.

FULL STANDINGS (as of July 27):

1. Trump – 18 percent

2. Bush – 14 percent

3. Walker – 11 percent

4. Rubio – 6 percent

T5. Paul – 6 percent

T5. Cruz – 6 percent

7. Huckabee – 6 percent

8. Carson – 5 percent

9. Christie – 3.0 percent

10. Perry – 2.2 percent

11. Kasich – 2.0 percent

12. Santorum – 1.6 percent

13. Jindal – 1.4 percent

14. Fiorina – 0.8 percent

15. Pataki – 0.6 percent

16. Graham – 0.2 percent

[...]


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I liked Paul's close  
Bill L : 8/6/2015 10:59 pm : link
.
Carson may not be a good candidate for president owing to lack  
Del Shofner : 8/6/2015 11:02 pm : link
of experience, but he's a very admirable dude.
Did Walker just say he had a harlot?  
Bill L : 8/6/2015 11:02 pm : link
.
RE: Did Walker just say he had a harlot?  
buford : 8/6/2015 11:03 pm : link
In comment 12406043 Bill L said:
Quote:
.


Harley (motorcycle).
RE: Did Walker just say he had a harlot?  
Del Shofner : 8/6/2015 11:04 pm : link
In comment 12406043 Bill L said:
Quote:
.


lol, that's what I heard too.
Bush's  
buford : 8/6/2015 11:06 pm : link
wife is a midget!
RE: Carson may not be a good candidate for president owing to lack  
Deej : 8/6/2015 11:07 pm : link
In comment 12406042 Del Shofner said:
Quote:
of experience, but he's a very admirable dude.

He struck me as a soft spoken egomaniac.

Did you know that he is a surgeon?
RE: RE: Did Walker just say he had a harlot?  
Bill L : 8/6/2015 11:08 pm : link
In comment 12406044 buford said:
Quote:
In comment 12406043 Bill L said:


Quote:


.



Harley (motorcycle).
ahh. That would have been refreshingly honest in an Eliot Sptizer kind of way
ok  
Deej : 8/6/2015 11:11 pm : link
off to watch the Daily Show
Walker is a Republican  
pjcas18 : 8/6/2015 11:15 pm : link
Al Gore (in style and substance), I hope he's not the Republican candidate.
Fox post debate  
Giants2012 : 8/6/2015 11:20 pm : link
Good lord
Is your remote broken  
Bill L : 8/6/2015 11:21 pm : link
?
I didn't change the channel either  
pjcas18 : 8/6/2015 11:26 pm : link
who was that fat 50 year old man wearing his high school suit running a focus group? his suit sleeves were up to his elbows

he looks like he's doing the fat guy in a little coat farley scene from Tommy Boy.
Frank Lunz...does weird focus group stuff  
Bill L : 8/6/2015 11:28 pm : link
Monitoring reactions in real time (supposedly) and gauging opinions in the immediacy
After the post debate  
Ryan : 8/6/2015 11:29 pm : link
....show Charles Krauthammer will be flown back to the Gallapagos Islands to rejoin the other tortoises.
only meaningful  
pjcas18 : 8/6/2015 11:30 pm : link
comment was when Trump wouldn't pledge his support to whoever wins the nomination (if it's not him) his support in the focus group waned dramatically.

People in the group thought that would be a major issue, especially if he runs as an independent.
RE: Walker is a Republican  
schabadoo : 8/6/2015 11:35 pm : link
In comment 12406055 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Al Gore (in style and substance), I hope he's not the Republican candidate.


Al Gore won the populate vote against the Bush machine.
RE: RE: Walker is a Republican  
pjcas18 : 8/6/2015 11:38 pm : link
In comment 12406070 schabadoo said:
Quote:
In comment 12406055 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


Al Gore (in style and substance), I hope he's not the Republican candidate.



Al Gore won the populate vote against the Bush machine.


yeah, if Al Gore weren't so robotic and plain in the debates he would have won the electoral vote too.
I think the nomination is Rubio's to lose.  
Mr. Bungle : 8/6/2015 11:43 pm : link
Jeb Bush was remarkably weak, given the political resources at his disposal. He blew a bunch of answers.

I have no idea what Ben Carson is doing up there. He comes off like he won a sweepstakes to become a presidential candidate.

Christie seemed surprisingly uncomfortable up there.

The last question about God was ridiculous.

RE: RE: RE: Walker is a Republican  
steve in ky : 8/6/2015 11:43 pm : link
In comment 12406071 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 12406070 schabadoo said:


Quote:


In comment 12406055 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


Al Gore (in style and substance), I hope he's not the Republican candidate.



Al Gore won the populate vote against the Bush machine.



yeah, if Al Gore weren't so robotic and plain in the debates he would have won the electoral vote too.


LOL yeah remember when he walked across the stage and got real close to Bush and stared weirdly right in his face, and Bush stopped looked at him with kind of a double take and nodded and said hello?
...  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:01 am : link
Trump hurt himself.

Rubio and Fiorina helped themselves.

Huckabee is a natural at this but not really electable. But he did well.

Cruz will pick up Trump defectors, but he's too divisive.

Bush and Walker were blah.

Carson nice finish but he's not presidential.

Christie had a good night but isn't going to win the party's nomination.
...  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:02 am : link
I expected more out of Kasich, but bleh.

Paul hurt himself.
Eric, i agree with almost all of that  
eclipz928 : 8/7/2015 12:11 am : link
except for the thought that Trump hurt himself. It was pretty clear that the moderators made every attempt to try and cut him down with those questions.Some of them were low ball. Trump may have suffered a bit, but the wounds weren't self inflicted.
eclipz928  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:14 am : link
I agree...the Trump questions were loaded. But he failed. He completely turned off women voters. No specifics either.

BTW, kudos to FOX moderators for exceptionally tough questions all around.
...  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:16 am : link
Kasich helped himself with answer to gay marriage question, but otherwise didn't do as well as I expected. Could be early jitters.

Bush seemed nervous too. He had some good answers but he's not terribly charismatic and that matters to voters in the media age.
RE: eclipz928  
Del Shofner : 8/7/2015 12:17 am : link
In comment 12406091 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
I agree...the Trump questions were loaded. But he failed. He completely turned off women voters. No specifics either.

BTW, kudos to FOX moderators for exceptionally tough questions all around.


yes, this started out looking like a complete circus but I thought the moderators did a good job under the circumstances.
all...  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:17 am : link
of the Republican candidates are failing miserably on the Planned Parenthood debate. The Democrats have spun this around on them.

It's not a Pro Choice/Pro Life issue. It's a legal issue. Planned Parenthood is breaking federal law.
Yea, bad move by him going directly after  
eclipz928 : 8/7/2015 12:17 am : link
Megyn Kelly in such a condescending tone. His responses would have been very effective if he restrained himself a bit and stopped short of attacking the moderators.
Yea as an outsider (I'm a Dem)  
Stu11 : 8/7/2015 12:17 am : link
I'd be careful about Trump hurting himself. Seems like every time he does something outlandish it boomerangs back at his detractors. Oh and never go by Luntz' "focus groups". that snake oil salesman is famous for astro-turfing his groups towards whatever the RNC wants. I could give my views on the candidate's comments but that's not really relevant to the discussion as I'm not voting for any of them any way.
I thought Rubio and Kasich  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 8/7/2015 12:18 am : link
were the best. That was my personal opinion without checking out any social media or anything. Now, I just went to check on twitter and it seems like those are the two winners in a lot of people's eyes.
RE: all...  
Stu11 : 8/7/2015 12:19 am : link
In comment 12406094 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
Planned Parenthood is breaking federal law.

Eric I'm curious which federal law are they breaking? they are not spending federal money on abortions.
Stu11  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:20 am : link
I noticed Trump's problem a few weeks ago when he visited New Hampshire. When asked for specifics ("What would you do instead of Obamacare?"), he dodges.

He did it again tonight.

I think it will catch up to him.

People who support him now are really pissed off at career politicians. My guess is Fiorina will get much of his support eventually. Cruz too (though his problem is he is part of the system).
Stu11  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:21 am : link
They are clearly harvesting baby body parts for money. I'm Pro Choice but that's disgusting.

I know many will disagree with me, but we're better than that. And the history books won't be kind. That's the kind of shit the Nazis did.
Eric come on you are better than that  
Stu11 : 8/7/2015 12:25 am : link
they are not "harvesting" anything. The tissue donated for research. The only money changing hands is for shipping. Talk about an argument being twisted.
Stu  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:27 am : link
Slippery slope. Sorry but I don't agree with you.
...  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:28 am : link
Joseph Mengele and others of his ilk did a lot of research too.
Overall  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:29 am : link
I think the two big stories to come out of this are:

(1) Trump may hand HRC the election.

(2) Republicans are feeding into the "war on women" narrative (this still can't figure out how to handle that).
Eric I know great people who work for PP  
Stu11 : 8/7/2015 12:31 am : link
I'm sorry the characterizations that that are going on about that organization the past few weeks are really sad and sickening to me. They offer vital services mainly to the neediest women in this country. To characterize them as some sort of Nazi experimentation center is really sad and simply off base. This is tissue that has been used in some of the greatest medical advances of our time. Does the organization have some bad people in it? I'm sure. Most do.
RE: Stu11  
Modus Operandi : 8/7/2015 12:32 am : link
In comment 12406105 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
They are clearly harvesting baby body parts for money. I'm Pro Choice but that's disgusting.

I know many will disagree with me, but we're better than that. And the history books won't be kind. That's the kind of shit the Nazis did.


Yeah. Like Frankenbaby.





Anyone know wtf Eric is talking about?
Trump just said he's not pledging because of overage reasons  
Bill L : 8/7/2015 12:33 am : link
So "they treat him nice". More importantly he did he's starting to come around because people are treating him nice and he's gaining respect for them. I think he he drops and supports a republican fairly soon (months, not days or weeks).
At least on the part of the video that I saw  
Bill L : 8/7/2015 12:36 am : link
Nobody mentioned shipping. Even if that art as omitted, one old think that shipping costs are fixed and they wouldn't need to haggle. Regardless, I think PP could drop the tissue part. I think it should be done by law only by hospitals.
debate  
giantfan2000 : 8/7/2015 12:39 am : link
stu bravo -- well said

my concerned troll debate scores

Up: Trump, Kasich, Rubio

neutral Huckabee ,walker, Christie,

Down: Paul, Cruz, Carson, , Bush


Bill thats fine I can agree with you there  
Stu11 : 8/7/2015 12:40 am : link
but to call what they do "Mengele type stuff". Come on. Those videos are a joke done by a group that has specialized in this edited gotcha garbage for years. They literally pull this crap on PP multiple times a year. They became such a joke that they changed their name.
...  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:41 am : link
Trump up?

I thought he was the clear cut loser tonight.
Stu11 :  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 8/7/2015 12:43 am : link
The videos were not created. Were they edited? I don't know but anyone who actually watched them can't come away feeling uneasy about them. And it wasn't just one, or two, or three videos. (and others have been barred by a judge)

Again, I'm Pro Choice. Always have been. I don't see this is as an abortion issue.
we'll agree to disagree Eric I don't want to hijack the thread  
Stu11 : 8/7/2015 12:50 am : link
.
yep  
giantfan2000 : 8/7/2015 12:56 am : link
Trump didn't make a complete fool out of himself

he was unfairly attacked by fox news team but managed to respond quite pithy to most of the attacks

as far as two front runners
Jeb was just awkward ...Walker was forgetable

Going to be interesting to see who moved the dial after the debates

I actually would put Christie in Up section .. he had a bit of energy that the others lacked

Lol..holy shit  
montanagiant : 8/7/2015 1:02 am : link
That literally looked like parody of a debate....loved it
All it needed was Lyndsey "mint julep" Graham  
montanagiant : 8/7/2015 1:05 am : link
And that was a #1 rated reality show on TLC
Trump is fun. But he was out of place up there.  
glowrider : 8/7/2015 1:08 am : link
No responses to direct questions, hated how he went after Megyn Kelly, and he did not handle the issue of his past comments well. It's rodman it's Dennis being Dennis. There was no likability to the dumb response he should've given. No Donald being Donald. Substance killed him. But, if the other candidates now distance themself from Trump on that gaffe, it's sort of put the issue into sharp relief and repubs could pivot from there using trump as a convenient package of unelectable issues to rail against.

Kasich was winner of the 9pm bout and Fiorina on the undercard. Loved Ben Carson last couple swings. Christie v. Paul on nsa was very mr. Smith goes to Washington. You like Christies presence, but Rand's principles. One of them was presidential - I thought Christie looked good and while the Obama hug comment was good, if he mentioned the jones hug we'd be talking about President-Elect Paul.

Brain dump. Evenin folks



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