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NFT: 1st GOP Presidential Debate: Who’ll be In, Who’ll be Out?

sphinx : 7/27/2015 7:58 pm
Quote:
Fox News, which is hosting the first debate next Thursday in Cleveland, says that they will include the top 10 candidates from an average of the five most recent national polls. But Fox News isn’t saying which polls they will use to calculate their average, leaving the rest of us to play a guessing game. [...]

Who's In

According to an ABC News analysis of five recent major national polls on July 27 ... Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson.

Who's Out

Another three candidates are almost certainly going to miss the mark. Carly Fiorina, George Pataki and Lindsey Graham [...]

Chris Christie and Rick Perry currently hold the last two spots on the debate stage. John Kasich, who just announced his candidacy last week, misses the debate stage by just two-tenths of a percentage point. Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal are close behind, but still watching from home on Aug. 6.

FULL STANDINGS (as of July 27):

1. Trump – 18 percent

2. Bush – 14 percent

3. Walker – 11 percent

4. Rubio – 6 percent

T5. Paul – 6 percent

T5. Cruz – 6 percent

7. Huckabee – 6 percent

8. Carson – 5 percent

9. Christie – 3.0 percent

10. Perry – 2.2 percent

11. Kasich – 2.0 percent

12. Santorum – 1.6 percent

13. Jindal – 1.4 percent

14. Fiorina – 0.8 percent

15. Pataki – 0.6 percent

16. Graham – 0.2 percent

[...]


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RE: Divide the airtime by ten  
njm : 7/28/2015 11:25 am : link
In comment 12388921 WideRight said:
Quote:


Its an advantage for Trump. Hard to attack when you've only got a few seconds.

More importantly when dealing with Trump, hard to refute when you've only got a few seconds

Its going to be a clusterF@#K. I will not bother watching.

Not sure I'll watch as well. Might give it a few minutes and turn the channel if my expectations prove true. After all, no Rangers games or Thursday Night Football as alternatives

It's a shame  
Sarasota-Phil : 7/28/2015 12:14 pm : link
That we couldn't make an exception for a guy like Schwarzenegger. Fiscal conservative but much more liberal on social issues. But he's not American born so....

Almost all of the Republican field could care less about anyone who isn't rich, white and Christian. That's a problem. We need a President who represents most of America not just one specific group.

The only guy I see that could come close to being somewhat moderate for the GOP is Pataki, that isn't what the Republican base wants though, they want Trump. A loudmouth who thinks everyone but him is a "LOSER" or an "IDIOT". This is why they won't win on the national stage without gerrymandering or passing laws right before the election to exclude certain groups of people who just happen to be heavily Democrat. That ISN'T the American way and should be frowned upon by everyone but it is instead embraced. I'm not saying Democrats don't pull the same crap because they do, either way it needs to stop.

By the way, I'm not a Hillary backer....Yet

Gonna have to see how this all plays out.
Pataki s somewhat close to being moderate?  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 1:15 pm : link
holy crap. You must be pretty fringey yourself.
HRC dodges pipeline question  
dep026 : 7/28/2015 1:17 pm : link
big time in Iowa. She's very lucky she was the annointed one. Because if the Dems pushed another credible candidate, she would lose.

Its time for her to take on the tough questions. The public doesnt need to know about her party bus rides through the country. The pipeline is a big ado for me and others close to me, so I am curious on how she stands on the issue. Deflecting it on Obama and Kerry is not good enough.
She's hoping for a circular firing squad by the Republicans  
njm : 7/28/2015 1:25 pm : link
Say as little as possible, take the abuse from Bernie and the media and reschedule the coronation after the conventions when she gets the media back.

And she might be right about the firing squad.

Bonus points for a Trump 3rd party run.

At this stage, it looks like it would take a real effort on her part to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I think Romney ran one cycle too early.  
BeerFridge : 7/28/2015 1:30 pm : link
I think he could beat Hillary. Not sure if these schmoes can.
Hillary and Trump  
idiotsavant : 7/28/2015 1:59 pm : link
are laughing their respective asses off together on this ruse via secret email chatter on her missing server.

(a conspiracy to tie in with Fatmans thread)
RE: She's hoping for a circular firing squad by the Republicans  
WideRight : 7/28/2015 2:03 pm : link
In comment 12389242 njm said:
Quote:
Say as little as possible, take the abuse from Bernie and the media and reschedule the coronation after the conventions when she gets the media back.

And she might be right about the firing squad.

Bonus points for a Trump 3rd party run.

At this stage, it looks like it would take a real effort on her part to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.


Trump has no interest in a third party run. That would require real money and real commitment. He's still in it for ego and PR. DO you think he wants to serve this country, at $400K/yr?
Pete in Atlanta  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/28/2015 2:17 pm : link
First class as always.
Idk who will be at the debate  
NoPeanutz : 7/28/2015 3:59 pm : link
but I hope someone asks a Q about what each thinks about a national age of consent.
For anyone who questions  
Modus Operandi : 7/28/2015 6:29 pm : link
Our electoral process and wonders why we're presented with the veritable smorgasbord of shitheads on either side of the aisle, they need to only open up one of the political threads on BBI.

I'm gratefull the constant hand-wringing and whining by the usual suspects is, for the most part, contained to these threads.
I was listening to Rick Perry on the 5 today  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 7:01 pm : link
He was very rational and cogent. Seemed like a good personality too.

For some reason that I don't know myself, I can't get into Perry. But looking at his resume, at least as far as being qualified for President, there is no one Republican or Democrat who is better qualified. For some, I get they can't get past ideological differences, but as far as relevant qualifications and experience, I think he's tops.
Perry was the hot candidate in 12  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/28/2015 7:03 pm : link
He didn't live up to the hype. I still thi nm like that and 'Oops' still stymies him.
Probably  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 7:05 pm : link
They talked about that a little. He didn't walk away from the error. Talked about America being a place of second chances. Maybe for me he's just not dynamic enough.
what they should do  
PaulBlakeTSU : 7/28/2015 7:06 pm : link
is separate them into two groups of five (perhaps 1-3-5-7-9 and 2-4-6-8-10 in the aggregate polling) and have back-to-back debates in successive hour blocks, but the candidates are sequestered such that the second group doesn't have any more access to the questions the first group had and they can't watch it.

10 people is too many for a debate. There will not be any discussion of anyone's points, nor enough time for anyone to say anything of meaning. IT will just be 10 egos competing for the most viral soundbite.
Maybe they should split them into pairs  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 7:14 pm : link
And one sits on the bench while the other goes into a soundproof booth. Then the moderator could ask them questions which they write down on cardboard placards. Then the other candidate comes out and gets asked the same question and they see if they could match. They get points for each matched answer and the winner is the pair with th highest point. They get nominated for President and Vice-President and also win a new kitchen and some furniture.
RE: Why cant Perry catch on?  
giantgiantfan : 7/28/2015 7:45 pm : link
In comment 12388255 Deej said:
Quote:
successful governor (much more so than a lot of these other govs), robustly conservative etc.

Is it the oops thing? Did it prove what some people already thought?


Because he is about as dumb as Bush II, the guy is a joke. He added glasses to appear more intelligent, so transparent, so dumb. I doubt I'll ever vote Republican, but please give me a better option than Perry. I heard Santorum on PBS News Hour a week or so ago and he sounded good, but I don't know much about any of the GOPs candidates policies yet. Kill me now if its Bush vs HRC.
Can you elaborate on why you think he is dumb?  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 7:49 pm : link
I'm really curious to learn more. What are you basing it on? Grades, personal knowledge, answers to questions, the "oops"? Feel free to include or omit your qualifications to assess his intelligence as you wish.
Bill L  
Headhunter : 7/28/2015 7:54 pm : link
don't ever change
RE: Can you elaborate on why you think he is dumb?  
giantgiantfan : 7/28/2015 7:55 pm : link
In comment 12390021 Bill L said:
Quote:
I'm really curious to learn more. What are you basing it on? Grades, personal knowledge, answers to questions, the "oops"? Feel free to include or omit your qualifications to assess his intelligence as you wish.


See link. That was all I needed to see, forgetting what you are going to say is fine. Though its odd to see it happen to such an established politician, but that was a comedy of errors and far to George W Bush-esque for me. Bush was terrible and I can't support any remotely like him, guy had all the support in the world (including mine) after 9/11. Flushed that right down the toilet along with a ton of lives, respect, and money.
C'Mon Man - ( New Window )
RE: Can you elaborate on why you think he is dumb?  
giantgiantfan : 7/28/2015 7:57 pm : link
In comment 12390021 Bill L said:
Quote:
I'm really curious to learn more. What are you basing it on? Grades, personal knowledge, answers to questions, the "oops"? Feel free to include or omit your qualifications to assess his intelligence as you wish.


Furthermore, I'll assess him as I see fit. Have you never referred to someones perceived lack of intelligence from your high horse? Ever?
So it's just the oops  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 7:59 pm : link
.
Bill L  
Headhunter : 7/28/2015 8:04 pm : link
The Inquisitor of BBI. This his his courtroom, pull up a chair and watch him probe
You usually like it when I probe  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 8:09 pm : link
.
I'll take any Republican bedside Bush.  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/28/2015 8:10 pm : link
I'll pass on a Bush III.

Nevermind, he's said a bunch of stuff that will kill him come general election.
I love when you  
Headhunter : 7/28/2015 8:12 pm : link
probe
RE: So it's just the oops  
giantgiantfan : 7/28/2015 8:12 pm : link
In comment 12390036 Bill L said:
Quote:
.


Howard Dean was derailed for much less. And what you call an oops, I call a candidate lacking eloquence who can sufficiently convey his policies to me. But we can continue this expose, two more gems in here.
etc... - ( New Window )
You know, that's a better example  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 8:22 pm : link
Although I still think dumb is more pejorative than appropriate. If he still holds to that overall view, although I personally don't think you should support suppression of the press or individual rights but we can debate that later, then I disagree with him and you've helped me to focus my opinions on these candidates. Thanks.
RE: You know, that's a better example  
giantgiantfan : 7/28/2015 8:30 pm : link
In comment 12390085 Bill L said:
Quote:
Although I still think dumb is more pejorative than appropriate. If he still holds to that overall view, although I personally don't think you should support suppression of the press or individual rights but we can debate that later, then I disagree with him and you've helped me to focus my opinions on these candidates. Thanks.


Sure pick and choose everything but the obvious red flags from the footage. Turkey has its issues past and present, but terrorists? And yeah, you're allowed to call urinating on corpses despicable. But we can debate the value of exaggerated statements and whether one should denounce defecating on corpses later.
I think it's wrong to defecate on corpses  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 8:34 pm : link
And...go?
RE: I think it's wrong to defecate on corpses  
giantgiantfan : 7/28/2015 8:36 pm : link
In comment 12390108 Bill L said:
Quote:
And...go?


Bill, it's nice to see Americans can still find common ground.
But I'd charge on admission fee  
Bill L : 7/28/2015 8:37 pm : link
.
RE: But I'd charge on admission fee  
giantgiantfan : 7/28/2015 8:39 pm : link
In comment 12390118 Bill L said:
Quote:
.


And what could be more American than that?
Perry challenging Trump  
giantgiantfan : 7/30/2015 12:27 am : link
to a pull-up contest...
yep - ( New Window )
RE: Probably  
santacruzom : 7/30/2015 1:09 am : link
In comment 12389953 Bill L said:
Quote:
Talked about America being a place of second chances.


Oh did he? Rofl.

Something tells me he's not terribly second-chancey towards people whose mistakes are just a few degrees more severe than saying "Oops" on national TV.
Holy shit, did someone actually claim Perry is a legit prospect?  
montanagiant : 7/30/2015 1:26 am : link
Are you fucking kidding me? WTF would possess anyone to actually view that imbecile as a viable option? There are 15 other actual intelligent choices, without being a walking talking point ass, on the conservative side that would be a better choice.

I am truly stunned that this man was even brought up in here
The Donald leading in Florida  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/30/2015 6:28 am : link
now. And Quinnipiac has him in first place nationally with 20%.

I thought his candidacy was over after his McCain comments. I was wrong. This guy probably has staying power. If nothing else, he's entertaining as hell to watch.
What the media didn't realize  
buford : 7/30/2015 6:33 am : link
is that many conservative Republicans dislike McCain, even though he is a war hero. He's viewed as a RINO and part of the establishment that attacks the base and conservative congress people more than he does democrats. And when you call people 'whackos' they tend to not give a shit when someone calls you out on it.
Color me interested  
ctc in ftmyers : 7/30/2015 6:33 am : link
in about another year.
RE: What the media didn't realize  
Bill L : 7/30/2015 8:25 am : link
In comment 12393151 buford said:
Quote:
is that many conservative Republicans dislike McCain, even though he is a war hero. He's viewed as a RINO and part of the establishment that attacks the base and conservative congress people more than he does democrats. And when you call people 'whackos' they tend to not give a shit when someone calls you out on it.

I dislike him. Add I completely agree with Trump about McCain the senator and presidential candidate. Trump's a dick about the war hero stuff, though.
Real Clear Politics average  
njm : 7/30/2015 8:38 am : link
This is probably as good an indicator as to who debates in the first group as any. They have Kasich now in the Top 10 with Perry at #11. They also have Christie squeaking into the Top 10. Although he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell I think it's important he stays there. As a former prosecutor and litigator, Christie thinks on his feet faster than anyone else in the field. He'll be able to counter Trump better than anyone else because he won't be tied to scripted talking points.
RE: The Donald leading in Florida  
WideRight : 7/30/2015 9:05 am : link
In comment 12393148 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
now. And Quinnipiac has him in first place nationally with 20%.

I thought his candidacy was over after his McCain comments. I was wrong. This guy probably has staying power. If nothing else, he's entertaining as hell to watch.


Can The Donald deliver Florida?

That puts him on the VP short list.
I don't think Donald's ego  
giants#1 : 7/30/2015 9:31 am : link
would allow him to accept the VP spot.
RE: I don't think Donald's ego  
njm : 7/30/2015 10:11 am : link
In comment 12393284 giants#1 said:
Quote:
would allow him to accept the VP spot.


Correct.

And beyond that, none of the other candidates would consider him because you don't need a loose cannon with comments you'd constantly have to explain. And once he's out of the top spot the media would treat him the way they treated Sarah Palin after the convention. And just as Palin brought much of it onto herself, so would Trump.
Hillary  
dep026 : 7/30/2015 10:17 am : link
comes to my area. Doesnt speak in public in where her father is buried. Collects between $1,000-2,700 for about 1,200 people and off she goes.

Years ago she would say how Scranton was her hometown, and how it was dear to her heart, blah blah blah. Now she only has time to collect checks and not speak to the public. Thousands would have went to see her publicly, but she didnt have time for them.
Sounds like Kasich is getting enough of a bump post-announcement  
GMenLTS : 7/30/2015 10:21 am : link
latest quinnipiac poll has him at 5% tied with Cruz, some good bumps up in others as well.

Maybe sensibility will prevail after all..

The same polls that paint Trump as the current frontrunner  
MarshallOnMontana : 7/30/2015 11:12 am : link
Also show you he has absolutely no chance to win the nomination. In a 16 person field, you could lead with a plurality of 20-25%, just as he is currently doing. That number is a lot closer to his ceiling than his floor though. His unfavorability ratings are basically impossible to overcome, and once this field gets whittled down from 16 the support that went to drop out candidates absolutely isn't going to find it's way to him. That gets allocated elsewhere. Even about 60% of republicans say there is no way they can envision themselves supporting him. He can't really do any better than he is doing right now. You look how all the republicans poll in a head to head battle with Hillary and Trump is doing by far the worst, she has him beat by 20 points last I saw
RE: The same polls that paint Trump as the current frontrunner  
dep026 : 7/30/2015 11:25 am : link
In comment 12393598 MarshallOnMontana said:
Quote:
Also show you he has absolutely no chance to win the nomination. In a 16 person field, you could lead with a plurality of 20-25%, just as he is currently doing. That number is a lot closer to his ceiling than his floor though. His unfavorability ratings are basically impossible to overcome, and once this field gets whittled down from 16 the support that went to drop out candidates absolutely isn't going to find it's way to him. That gets allocated elsewhere. Even about 60% of republicans say there is no way they can envision themselves supporting him. He can't really do any better than he is doing right now. You look how all the republicans poll in a head to head battle with Hillary and Trump is doing by far the worst, she has him beat by 20 points last I saw


I have told my class since last November its going to be Bush or Walker. If republicans push Trump and republicans vote for him, they deserve HRC.

Quinnipac has Bush ahead of HRC. Republicans should run with this.
Please give me Jeb as the Republican nominee.  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 7/30/2015 11:27 am : link
Please!
RE: Please give me Jeb as the Republican nominee.  
dep026 : 7/30/2015 11:31 am : link
In comment 12393641 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Please!


Jeb has the best chance of getting past HRC, so I would be careful what you wish for. Imagine a Bush/Kasich tandem?
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