Jays make big move and improve both bull pen and the lineup. How or do the Yanks respond? We're only 7 games ahead of the Jays and still play them 10 more times. Plus according to amoroso the jays are not done with trading.
Now this is no way a panic mode situation as we are playing good ball. But what is Cashman thinking right now?
Any word on Ellsbury? How is his shoulder?
Prospect question: I have read and heard from several laces ( including here) that the Yanks may not think that 3b Jagielo is not a MLB 3b, and hat he us more suited for 1b. If that is true why don't they put him at 1b now? He is hitting great .284 avg 36 runs 35 rbis 9 hrs with a 347 obp at Trenton. Would he make Bird expendable via trade?
2nd - Bird is at 1B and is himself a highly regarded prospect. Up until Bird's promo to SWB 2-3 weeks ago, the two were both in Trenton together so it wasn't really feasible to get Jagielo starts at 1B.
3rd - moving a player to 1B is typically thought of as a last resort and decreases their value. Jagielo will likely be given every chance to stick at 3B or a corner OF spot.
This year, he hasn't had an issue playing at home or away but between 2012-2014:
Home: .354, .437, .609 31 HR, 92 RBI
Road: .276, .356, .489 23 HR, 69 RBI
Playing in less of a hitter's park and on astro turf will only accentuate these issues. Given the high level prospects the Blue Jays gave up (plus Reyes who isn't at Tulo's level but still pretty good), not really sure about this (on another note, tremendous haul for the Rockies considering their current situation).
Blue Jays pitching is still a major issue and they're 7 games back. I would be more concerned if I was a wild card team, but not the Yankees.
BTW, calling the 40something LaTroy Hawkins a "bullpen upgrade" is a pretty big stretch.
BTW, calling the 40something LaTroy Hawkins a "bullpen upgrade" is a pretty big stretch.
Isn't he a ground ball pitcher anyway (and thus would have issues on turf)?
BTW, calling the 40something LaTroy Hawkins a "bullpen upgrade" is a pretty big stretch.
From what they had he is. Even if it's only for this season.
And like I said, Chris fucking Colabello is eventually going to turn back into a pumpkin.
And like I said, Chris fucking Colabello is eventually going to turn back into a pumpkin.
Looked it up - Blue Jays have left the 3rd fewest runners in scoring position per game this season.
Yankees are 20th
They still have Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnation, and now Tulo. Collabello is really just a nice surprise for them this year.
Yea. I think in terms of pitching even though the Yankees and them are pretty close in overall ERA (20th and 23rd respectively), their respective performances the last few weeks is widening that gap. Also the Blue Jays don't really have a guy who can act as an ace even for a game. While Tanaka and Pineda can be inconsistent at times they at least have that potential
May: .262/.284/.393 2 HR 10 RBI
June: .381/.439/.526 4 HR 21 RBI
July: .219/.320/.422 4 HR 12 RBI
Weird
April: .206/.266/.238 0 HR 4 RBI
May: .232/.300/.341 2 HR 7 RBI
June: .258/.293/.366 2 HR 5 RBI
July: .294/.333/.397 1 HR 9 RBI
--
Arod by month
April: .232/.369/.507 5 HR 13 RBI
May: .316/.369/.571 6 HR 14 RBI
June: .281/.411/.499 4 HR 18 RBI
July: .257/.329/.657 9 HR 14 RBI
A bit inconsistent by batting average but he's been slowly regaining his power.
These next few weeks are key. After we finish with the Rangers, we face the Red Sox and White Sox before our series with the Jays. If we could manage to create a 10 game lead ahead of the somehow before we face them, I won't feel threatened by the Jays this year.
That's really odd. Drew having more HRs than TT? Lel.
These next few weeks are key. After we finish with the Rangers, we face the Red Sox and White Sox before our series with the Jays. If we could manage to create a 10 game lead ahead of the somehow before we face them, I won't feel threatened by the Jays this year.
That's valid but you can also make an argument that the offense is not sustainable since (as pointed out above) they are similar to the Yankees in every way minus BA w/ RISP.
Also Toronto's bullpen has been brutal in close games, blowing the most saves in the majors (50% conversion rate as opposed to 82% for the Yankees). Will that improve as the season goes along, boosting their record? We'll see - a big if.
Yea he's been pretty awesome. Luckily Shreve has been awesome, especially since Carpenter was a bust.
This.
BaseRuns is probably the best publicly-available tool we have for estimating expected runs scored and runs allowed based on the results of individual plate appearances - which is a much better way to analyze actual team performance because it removes sequencing luck.
FanGraphs has a BaseRuns leaderboard, which I've linked before. Sort by the RDif column under '2015 BaseRuns'. The Yankees are 3rd in all of MLB. If you sort by RS/G under '2015 BaseRuns', the Yankees are 2nd in MLB, only 0.10 runs per game behind the Jays.
The Yankees have been lucky, but not in the sense that their record exceeds their performance. In fact, their expected record per BaseRuns exactly matches their actual record, 56-42. Instead, the Yankees have been lucky because the Jays have been unlucky. I wouldn't expect that luck to necessarily continue going forward - although I don't think BaseRuns does a great job of adjusting for the value of elite relief pitching in high-leverage innings, so I think BaseRuns actually sells the Yankees short a little bit - but a seven-game lead is actually fairly comfortable, and I don't think adding Tulo changes that very much.
BaseRuns leaderboard (FanGraphs) - ( New Window )
Do not forget Headley too
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The 1-2 punch, lol. Good for Didi, though. Awesome to see him come alive at the plate this month. If he can just stay somewhat consistent the rest of the season, that'd be huge for our offense.
Do not forget Headley too
Headley Lamarr?
Usually teams that live by the HR die by it when the pitching gets better. It will be interesting to see which, if either, team falters if the dingers stop coming.
2nd in the MLB in home runs may be a concern to some but they're:
-10th in batting average
-9th in OBP
-10th in doubles
-7th in fewest strikeouts
-5th in walks
All of these statistics trending upward also the last month or two. So they're definitely a bit more well-rounded than it seems. The home-run is their bread and butter but they do a lot of different things decently well.
-2nd in OBP
-1st in doubles
-10th in fewest strikeouts
-4th in walks
I think the bigger thing to look at with these two teams and whether they will falter is health and the amount of players having career/rebound years. For the Yankees, can A-rod and Tex keep it up after faltering the last few years? Can they stay healthy? What about Beltran and Ellsbury?
For the Blue Jays, can Colabello continue his great play? What about Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson and their home run outputs (both on pace for career highs)?
It's all BABIP. Martin's a career .289 BABIP hitter; his BABIPs in NY were .252 and .222. Honestly it's kind of incredible he pulled a 95 wRC+ in 2012 running that low of a BABIP.
I was going to hypothesize that the short porch messed with his swing, but all of his other contact and batted ball type peripherals are pretty much the same in NY vs. afterwards. It's really strange.
Honestly the catcher thing that bothers me more is that we traded Cervelli for Justin Wilson. Not that Wilson's been bad - he's been fine, and I wasn't particularly opposed to the deal at the time - but Cervelli has been the best pitch framer in baseball per StatCorner, worth about 15 runs on top of the 2 WAR FanGraphs already credits him with. It's not weird that he's on the Pirates, because the Pirates care about pitch framing as much as any team in baseball, but it's weird that the Yankees traded him away for a middle reliever when the Yankees have also been a team that tends to care about pitch framing, especially from its backup catchers (Chris Stewart, Jose Molina, etc.).
StatCorner - ( New Window )
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But he's raked for the Pirates and the Blue Jays. Asshole.
It's all BABIP. Martin's a career .289 BABIP hitter; his BABIPs in NY were .252 and .222. Honestly it's kind of incredible he pulled a 95 wRC+ in 2012 running that low of a BABIP.
I was going to hypothesize that the short porch messed with his swing, but all of his other contact and batted ball type peripherals are pretty much the same in NY vs. afterwards. It's really strange.
Honestly the catcher thing that bothers me more is that we traded Cervelli for Justin Wilson. Not that Wilson's been bad - he's been fine, and I wasn't particularly opposed to the deal at the time - but Cervelli has been the best pitch framer in baseball per StatCorner, worth about 15 runs on top of the 2 WAR FanGraphs already credits him with. It's not weird that he's on the Pirates, because the Pirates care about pitch framing as much as any team in baseball, but it's weird that the Yankees traded him away for a middle reliever when the Yankees have also been a team that tends to care about pitch framing, especially from its backup catchers (Chris Stewart, Jose Molina, etc.). StatCorner - ( New Window )
Cool read thanks for sharing! Interesting to see how low McCann is in that regard.
I don't get that. He's also owed 14 million next season.
I think the Yankees were more skeptical of Cervelli's ability to stay on the field than his skills.
Sources: Mets will keep looking for possible matches, but it may well be that the heavy lifting -- w/Uribe, Johnson, Clippard -- is over.
I think part of it is just general tiredness from pitching in hot weather and coming off of THJ rather than pain or something. BUT, you are right in the sense that they need some starters with him, Tanaka, and Pineda all having significant shoulder/elbow issues last 2-3 years.
All you have to do is get into the playoffs. After that, anything can happen.
Nonsense. With that bullpen and the big bats they can stay with anyone. Does KC really scare you? The Angels? St Louis - yes...
IF HEALTHY - big if, this team can hang with anyone. They have been slowly improving through the season.
Wouldn't be surprised if it was a package deal for Prado and Latos or Haren.
heh, that actually compares favorably to what we currently have.
I disagree. I think this team, as constructed, has a chance to be better in the post season. The bottom of their rotation doesn't get to pitch or replaces a guy like Capuano in the pen. The bullpen is as good as anyone's and a good portion of their lineup is hitting now.
You think teams want to face Tanaka and Pineda twice each, plus face a top 5 of the lineup of Ellsbury, Gardner, A-Rod, Teixeira, and McCann? Plus a back of the bullpen of Shreve, Betnaces, and Miller, plus a few middle relievers who are pitching very well, plus some guys in the bottom 1/3 of the lineup starting to hit?
I don't think we need to be desperate and I don't think we win or lose by whomever we trade for. We win or lose by the ability of the current core to stay healthy.
Time to do it. They've exceeded expectations so far.
Maybe a month or so ago, I could understand this statement. But anyone who's been watching this team every night over the past month or so, nah. This team is good and beats good teams. As long as they stay healthy, they are in very good position for the rest of the season.
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might win the ALE but that's about it. IMO
Nonsense. With that bullpen and the big bats they can stay with anyone. Does KC really scare you? The Angels? St Louis - yes...
IF HEALTHY - big if, this team can hang with anyone. They have been slowly improving through the season.
Yep, and this bullpen is one of the best in MLB, if not the best. Miller missed 4-5 weeks and they were still effective even without their closer.
Depending on what seed the Yankees get, they can also try and skip a start by Nova or Eovaldi depending on who pitches worse down the stretch.
Also, this isn't the classic MLB anymore - almost every team has holes. Also baseball in general is just a crapshot at times - not like the NBA where the team with the best or 2nd best player is almost guaranteed a spot in the finals.
Still 2 months though so a lot can change.
The Yankees would be a major threat with a guy like Hamels or Price. Without another potential ace, I think their ceiling is the ALCS and that's about it. I think the offense would get shut down by a great staff and/or the other starters just wouldn't be good enough to hand the game over to the bullpen.
2- Gardner (LF)
3- A-rod (DH)
4- Teix (1B)
5- Young (RF)
6- Headley (3B)
7- Murphy (C)
8- Gregorius (SS)
9- Ryan (2B)
Capuano the starter.
Good news about Ellsbury. Day off for Drew, Beltra, and McCann
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might win the ALE but that's about it. IMO
All you have to do is get into the playoffs. After that, anything can happen.
+1
They sure have come along way from those days. So many more championships since then, LOL.
That was a great day, the turning point for the franchise. It was "the Fumble" for the Yankees. THe younger fans don't remember what a true embarassment that Steinbrenner was. He was running the team into the ground. I give him credit for staying out of Stick's way for the most part when he was allowed back. It set the base for 20+ years of success
Yes I do. They couldn't get anybody to come here. The final straw for me was actually in 1982 when they had 3 managers. 3! Stick, Bob Lemon, Clyde King. Also in that year, drafted but couldn't sign BJ Surhoff, traded Willie McGee for Bob Sykes, traded TOmmy John to the Angels for a bag of balls.
I could go on. It was more fun watching the Mets lose 100 games that watch that shit.
Gotta give Cashman credit on this one.
Just to place into context here, since this is now not a "small sample size" anymore (May to end of July is a good stretch of three months)- Didi has an OPS of .710 since May 1. There are exactly 5 SS in ALL of the Majors with an OPS of .710 (Tulo, Crawford, Peralta, Iglesias, and Bogaerts). There is one SS with a .706 OPS (Miller).
There is probably more upside still there, as he is finally showing some life against LHP lately- the HR against Harrison was a great sign.
Downside- Alex Rios and Brennan Boesch are the ONLY RF in MLB- and Boesch only has 56 ABs- who have a LOWER WAR than Beltran. In fact, for the season, Beltran has a -0.6 WAR. Ouch.
IMO, which Judge probably isn't ready to take RF now, it will be hard to argue that he would not be an upgrade next spring.