NFT: Yanks talk 7-28

Jagielo is on the shelf right now with an injury.

2nd - Bird is at 1B and is himself a highly regarded prospect. Up until Bird's promo to SWB 2-3 weeks ago, the two were both in Trenton together so it wasn't really feasible to get Jagielo starts at 1B.

3rd - moving a player to 1B is typically thought of as a last resort and decreases their value. Jagielo will likely be given every chance to stick at 3B or a corner OF spot.

the Tulo deal doesn't cause Cashman to panic and it really shouldn't. Tulo is obviously a great player BUT he has the large contract, the injury concerns, and the home-road split concerns.

This year, he hasn't had an issue playing at home or away but between 2012-2014:

Home: .354, .437, .609 31 HR, 92 RBI
Road: .276, .356, .489 23 HR, 69 RBI

Playing in less of a hitter's park and on astro turf will only accentuate these issues. Given the high level prospects the Blue Jays gave up (plus Reyes who isn't at Tulo's level but still pretty good), not really sure about this (on another note, tremendous haul for the Rockies considering their current situation).

Blue Jays pitching is still a major issue and they're 7 games back. I would be more concerned if I was a wild card team, but not the Yankees.

I heard yesterday that Ellsbury was going to play today (not sure at DH and CF). He was slated to sit out today anyway due to the lefty and Girardi's goal of giving players adequate time off during this brutal (travel wise) road trip.

Even if the Yankees only go .500 the rest of the way (which is unlikely given their favorable schedule), Toronto would have to go 38-24 to tie them for the division lead.

BTW, calling the 40something LaTroy Hawkins a "bullpen upgrade" is a pretty big stretch.

The Yankees will not play another game outside of Eastern time.

In comment 12388836 Greg from LI said:

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Even if the Yankees only go .500 the rest of the way (which is unlikely given their favorable schedule), Toronto would have to go 38-24 to tie them for the division lead. BTW, calling the 40something LaTroy Hawkins a "bullpen upgrade" is a pretty big stretch.

Isn't he a ground ball pitcher anyway (and thus would have issues on turf)?

In comment 12388836 Greg from LI said:

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BTW, calling the 40something LaTroy Hawkins a "bullpen upgrade" is a pretty big stretch.

From what they had he is. Even if it's only for this season.

At best he's a marginal upgrade.

I do not expect this to change whatever Cashman might have been considering.

could have sure used those top level pitching prospects they traded around the league the last few years

sooner or later that Colabello clown will wake up and remember he sucks. Apparently this is a thing now for everyone in the AL East except the Yankees, having some shitty AAA lifer hit like an All-Star (Nava for Boston in 2013, Pearce for the Orioles last year, Paredes for the Orioles this year, Colabello for Toronto this year).

If you look at the gap between the Yankees and the Jays in their rate states, it's pretty small yet the gap in runs scored is huge. I can't really find a reason why except that the Jays simply don't leave as many men on base. That's not really a repeatable skill, so it'll be interesting to see if that holds up all year long.

And like I said, Chris fucking Colabello is eventually going to turn back into a pumpkin.

In comment 12388869 Greg from LI said:

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If you look at the gap between the Yankees and the Jays in their rate states, it's pretty small yet the gap in runs scored is huge. I can't really find a reason why except that the Jays simply don't leave as many men on base. That's not really a repeatable skill, so it'll be interesting to see if that holds up all year long. And like I said, Chris fucking Colabello is eventually going to turn back into a pumpkin.

Looked it up - Blue Jays have left the 3rd fewest runners in scoring position per game this season.

Yankees are 20th

In comment 12388867 Greg from LI said:

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sooner or later that Colabello clown will wake up and remember he sucks. Apparently this is a thing now for everyone in the AL East except the Yankees, having some shitty AAA lifer hit like an All-Star (Nava for Boston in 2013, Pearce for the Orioles last year, Paredes for the Orioles this year, Colabello for Toronto this year).

They still have Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnation, and now Tulo. Collabello is really just a nice surprise for them this year.

And, like I said, that's not really a repeatable thing. There's a lot of luck involved there. We'll see what happens, but the gap between the Jays at #1 and the Yankees at #2 in runs scored is so massive (.63 runs/game) when their actual hitting is fairly close that it looks rather fluky.

In comment 12388883 Greg from LI said:

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And, like I said, that's not really a repeatable thing. There's a lot of luck involved there. We'll see what happens, but the gap between the Jays at #1 and the Yankees at #2 in runs scored is so massive (.63 runs/game) when their actual hitting is fairly close that it looks rather fluky.

Yea. I think in terms of pitching even though the Yankees and them are pretty close in overall ERA (20th and 23rd respectively), their respective performances the last few weeks is widening that gap. Also the Blue Jays don't really have a guy who can act as an ace even for a game. While Tanaka and Pineda can be inconsistent at times they at least have that potential

Since May Stephen Drew actually hasn't been terrible. .230/.310/.487 in June and July, which isn't great but is tolerable since he plays a solid 2B.

I mean Drew has more. Whats up with Tulos power

He's been really up and down if you look at his monthly splits.

April: .308/.321/.526 2 HR 10 RBI
May: .262/.284/.393 2 HR 10 RBI
June: .381/.439/.526 4 HR 21 RBI
July: .219/.320/.422 4 HR 12 RBI

Weird

Didi's homer last night was the first of his career off a left-handed pitcher.

Didi by month

April: .206/.266/.238 0 HR 4 RBI
May: .232/.300/.341 2 HR 7 RBI
June: .258/.293/.366 2 HR 5 RBI
July: .294/.333/.397 1 HR 9 RBI

--

Arod by month

April: .232/.369/.507 5 HR 13 RBI
May: .316/.369/.571 6 HR 14 RBI
June: .281/.411/.499 4 HR 18 RBI
July: .257/.329/.657 9 HR 14 RBI

A bit inconsistent by batting average but he's been slowly regaining his power.

The 1-2 punch, lol. Good for Didi, though. Awesome to see him come alive at the plate this month. If he can just stay somewhat consistent the rest of the season, that'd be huge for our offense.

are 2nd in run differential, 20 runs ahead of 3rd ranked KC and nearly 60 ahead of us. Records tend to regress towards respective run differential. While 7 games is a large difference, it's only matter of time before the Jays stop underachieving. It would only take a short cold streak by us to shorten the gap.

These next few weeks are key. After we finish with the Rangers, we face the Red Sox and White Sox before our series with the Jays. If we could manage to create a 10 game lead ahead of the somehow before we face them, I won't feel threatened by the Jays this year.

In comment 12388959 xman said:

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I mean Drew has more. Whats up with Tulos power

That's really odd. Drew having more HRs than TT? Lel.

In comment 12389018 giantsfan44ab said:

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are 2nd in run differential, 20 runs ahead of 3rd ranked KC and nearly 60 ahead of us. Records tend to regress towards respective run differential. While 7 games is a large difference, it's only matter of time before the Jays stop underachieving. It would only take a short cold streak by us to shorten the gap. These next few weeks are key. After we finish with the Rangers, we face the Red Sox and White Sox before our series with the Jays. If we could manage to create a 10 game lead ahead of the somehow before we face them, I won't feel threatened by the Jays this year.

That's valid but you can also make an argument that the offense is not sustainable since (as pointed out above) they are similar to the Yankees in every way minus BA w/ RISP.

Also Toronto's bullpen has been brutal in close games, blowing the most saves in the majors (50% conversion rate as opposed to 82% for the Yankees). Will that improve as the season goes along, boosting their record? We'll see - a big if.

brought up ManBan a few weeks back. He was doing really well at AAA, and although he has a losing record since coming up, he has a decent ERA.

In comment 12389037 Beer Man said:

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brought up ManBan a few weeks back. He was doing really well at AAA, and although he has a losing record since coming up, he has a decent ERA.

Yea he's been pretty awesome. Luckily Shreve has been awesome, especially since Carpenter was a bust.

In comment 12388883 Greg from LI said:

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And, like I said, that's not really a repeatable thing. There's a lot of luck involved there. We'll see what happens, but the gap between the Jays at #1 and the Yankees at #2 in runs scored is so massive (.63 runs/game) when their actual hitting is fairly close that it looks rather fluky.

This.

BaseRuns is probably the best publicly-available tool we have for estimating expected runs scored and runs allowed based on the results of individual plate appearances - which is a much better way to analyze actual team performance because it removes sequencing luck.

FanGraphs has a BaseRuns leaderboard, which I've linked before. Sort by the RDif column under '2015 BaseRuns'. The Yankees are 3rd in all of MLB. If you sort by RS/G under '2015 BaseRuns', the Yankees are 2nd in MLB, only 0.10 runs per game behind the Jays.

The Yankees have been lucky, but not in the sense that their record exceeds their performance. In fact, their expected record per BaseRuns exactly matches their actual record, 56-42. Instead, the Yankees have been lucky because the Jays have been unlucky. I wouldn't expect that luck to necessarily continue going forward - although I don't think BaseRuns does a great job of adjusting for the value of elite relief pitching in high-leverage innings, so I think BaseRuns actually sells the Yankees short a little bit - but a seven-game lead is actually fairly comfortable, and I don't think adding Tulo changes that very much.

See below.
BaseRuns leaderboard (FanGraphs) - ( New Window )

In comment 12389014 Dave in Hoboken said:

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The 1-2 punch, lol. Good for Didi, though. Awesome to see him come alive at the plate this month. If he can just stay somewhat consistent the rest of the season, that'd be huge for our offense.

Do not forget Headley too

In comment 12389137 The 12th Man said:

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In comment 12389014 Dave in Hoboken said: Quote: The 1-2 punch, lol. Good for Didi, though. Awesome to see him come alive at the plate this month. If he can just stay somewhat consistent the rest of the season, that'd be huge for our offense. Do not forget Headley too

Headley Lamarr?

The Yanks have Arod, Tex, McCann, Beltran. Both teams live by the HR as evidenced by their lack of RISP.

Usually teams that live by the HR die by it when the pitching gets better. It will be interesting to see which, if either, team falters if the dingers stop coming.

Yankees are a more well-rounded offensive team than we give them credit for.

2nd in the MLB in home runs may be a concern to some but they're:
-10th in batting average
-9th in OBP
-10th in doubles
-7th in fewest strikeouts
-5th in walks

All of these statistics trending upward also the last month or two. So they're definitely a bit more well-rounded than it seems. The home-run is their bread and butter but they do a lot of different things decently well.

Blue Jays are top 5-10 in all of those categories as well. I think just generally they have pretty good offenses. One can make the case obviously that they may not continue their successes down the stretch but I think it would be for other reasons (age, general inconsistency, etc) rather relying on home runs.

4th in OPS.

-5th in batting average
-2nd in OBP
-1st in doubles
-10th in fewest strikeouts
-4th in walks

I think the bigger thing to look at with these two teams and whether they will falter is health and the amount of players having career/rebound years. For the Yankees, can A-rod and Tex keep it up after faltering the last few years? Can they stay healthy? What about Beltran and Ellsbury?

For the Blue Jays, can Colabello continue his great play? What about Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson and their home run outputs (both on pace for career highs)?

I wonder what pekoe was involved?

But he's raked for the Pirates and the Blue Jays. Asshole.

In comment 12389221 Greg from LI said:

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But he's raked for the Pirates and the Blue Jays. Asshole.

It's all BABIP. Martin's a career .289 BABIP hitter; his BABIPs in NY were .252 and .222. Honestly it's kind of incredible he pulled a 95 wRC+ in 2012 running that low of a BABIP.

I was going to hypothesize that the short porch messed with his swing, but all of his other contact and batted ball type peripherals are pretty much the same in NY vs. afterwards. It's really strange.

Honestly the catcher thing that bothers me more is that we traded Cervelli for Justin Wilson. Not that Wilson's been bad - he's been fine, and I wasn't particularly opposed to the deal at the time - but Cervelli has been the best pitch framer in baseball per StatCorner, worth about 15 runs on top of the 2 WAR FanGraphs already credits him with. It's not weird that he's on the Pirates, because the Pirates care about pitch framing as much as any team in baseball, but it's weird that the Yankees traded him away for a middle reliever when the Yankees have also been a team that tends to care about pitch framing, especially from its backup catchers (Chris Stewart, Jose Molina, etc.).
StatCorner - ( New Window )

In comment 12389264 Audible said:

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In comment 12389221 Greg from LI said: Quote: But he's raked for the Pirates and the Blue Jays. Asshole. It's all BABIP. Martin's a career .289 BABIP hitter; his BABIPs in NY were .252 and .222. Honestly it's kind of incredible he pulled a 95 wRC+ in 2012 running that low of a BABIP. I was going to hypothesize that the short porch messed with his swing, but all of his other contact and batted ball type peripherals are pretty much the same in NY vs. afterwards. It's really strange. Honestly the catcher thing that bothers me more is that we traded Cervelli for Justin Wilson. Not that Wilson's been bad - he's been fine, and I wasn't particularly opposed to the deal at the time - but Cervelli has been the best pitch framer in baseball per StatCorner, worth about 15 runs on top of the 2 WAR FanGraphs already credits him with. It's not weird that he's on the Pirates, because the Pirates care about pitch framing as much as any team in baseball, but it's weird that the Yankees traded him away for a middle reliever when the Yankees have also been a team that tends to care about pitch framing, especially from its backup catchers (Chris Stewart, Jose Molina, etc.). StatCorner - ( New Window )

Cool read thanks for sharing! Interesting to see how low McCann is in that regard.

They just keep winning.

why did the Cuds DA Edwin Jackson. The guys numbers are not that bad and they have others in their pen who have been absolutely awful.

In comment 12389312 The 12th Man said:

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why did the Cuds DA Edwin Jackson. The guys numbers are not that bad and they have others in their pen who have been absolutely awful.

I don't get that. He's also owed 14 million next season.

McCann used to be one of the best at framing but has declined substantially this year. Maybe it's just a blip.

I think the Yankees were more skeptical of Cervelli's ability to stay on the field than his skills.

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 1h1 hour ago
Sources: Mets will keep looking for possible matches, but it may well be that the heavy lifting -- w/Uribe, Johnson, Clippard -- is over.

thought this was the general MLB trade thread. Meh.

Yanks are a little concerned. If this is a ongoing think than we need a SP for the post season. Pineda has not pitched a full season in 3 years, Nova is not 100% , and Warren while nice to have in a pinch is not the answer.

to KC.

In comment 12389357 superspynyg said:

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Yanks are a little concerned. If this is a ongoing think than we need a SP for the post season. Pineda has not pitched a full season in 3 years, Nova is not 100% , and Warren while nice to have in a pinch is not the answer.

I think part of it is just general tiredness from pitching in hot weather and coming off of THJ rather than pain or something. BUT, you are right in the sense that they need some starters with him, Tanaka, and Pineda all having significant shoulder/elbow issues last 2-3 years.