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NFT: Met fans- which pitcher has the highest ceiling?

Headhunter : 7/29/2015 7:50 am
everyone is healthy, everyone is completely back to pre surgery strength and command. I don't know, I go back and forth on all 5 of them. They each
can make a case for being the best on this staff. Who has the highest ceiling?
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I'd prefer Reddick to Bruce, but Beane said he was done dealing  
Eric on Li : 7/29/2015 9:22 am : link
so even if he's just posturing it will likely take a lot to get him. My first choice Gomez will also likely take a lot to get, and Parra is a rental.

As for the OP question, I genuinely have no idea and I think that's the craziest thing about this rotation. A good case can be made for any of the top 3 right now. By the end of this season they will have possibly compiled 2 ROY trophies, 1 all star game start, 1 all star game record inning, 2 top 5 CY vote finishes, and all 3 may have career ERA's under 3. Matz hasn't pitched enough the majors yet to be in consideration.
I'd sign off on a Phillips for Murphy swap  
Eric on Li : 7/29/2015 9:25 am : link
in a heartbeat. Especially if it helped recoup a prospect and reduce the price on Bruce. Phillips is more of a winning player than Murphy and better defensively. Don't see Sandy doing that much "wheeling and dealing", but if you look at what Zobrist just brought back maybe there's someone out there looking to pay a slightly reduce price for Murphy?
I  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 9:28 am : link
don't want Parra at all. They reportedly already have been offered a "few" top 100 names by various teams. I would hate to even deal Fulmer, have him become a 2-3 starter in 2016 for .5 season of Parra.
RE: A Phillips dump  
arcarsenal : 7/29/2015 9:30 am : link
In comment 12390791 Shecky said:
Quote:
Team could use his shot in the arm. His personality. His flair. Basically, he is the second base version of a Jimmy Rollins. This team could actually use it.

Secondly, he immediately makes Murphy available to recoupe a prospect. Third, Herrera can now be used as a chip, you have that flexibility. Imagine what can be acquired for Wheeler, Herrera and Fulmer in the offseason!?!?!?

Phillips production would still provide you $10-$15mm in "value" according to WAR, with the potential of more with little downside risk of less. That happens to be his contract cost. So far from an albatross contract to be taking on in a typical salary dump.

Team is an INSTANT contender this year, next year and the following year.


I agree with you, I would be completely in favor of it. Could you realistically see the Mets taking on money like that though? I would be absolutely shocked. This would also involve a little creativity which.. we know isn't exactly the forte of this FO.
Fangraphs  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 9:30 am : link
goes after the Wilpons
Link - ( New Window )
I like Brandon Phillips, but he's 34  
Ten Ton Hammer : 7/29/2015 9:30 am : link
I wouldn't want to give away Herrera unless you were getting someone that could be around long-term.
Phillips  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 9:32 am : link
is still above average defensively and has 5 homers/11 steals, as a salary dump we could do much worse.
RE: I like Brandon Phillips, but he's 34  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 9:33 am : link
In comment 12390816 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
I wouldn't want to give away Herrera unless you were getting someone that could be around long-term.


Phillips would be BECAUSE he would bring down the talent price on Bruce. He'd be a salary dump. If that allowed Herrera to be the centerpiece of a Bruce deal it's a no-brainer.
Gomez  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 9:34 am : link
reportedly will not be dealt unless the price is "ridiculous".
Back to the original question  
arniefez : 7/29/2015 9:39 am : link
Pre surgery Harvey, Thor, Matz, deG, Wheeler. Not much to separate the 1st 4. Wheeler is a small drop off from the top 4.
Last  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 9:43 am : link
11 games Joey Votto has a .700 OBP
Here's a slightly less subjective question- who has the best stuff?  
Eric on Li : 7/29/2015 9:43 am : link
Harvey's slider might win the discussion but it's not easy to parse.
honestly  
sshin05 : 7/29/2015 9:48 am : link
i think deGrom might have the highest upside, remember he doesnt have a lot of pitching experience and he's doing it at the highest level. The only downside is that he is the oldest among the "young guys". Him and Syndergaard are really close for me however.
The nice thing is  
steve in ky : 7/29/2015 9:48 am : link
These guys will all be pushing each other for years to come. Who knows who ends up with the best career but it is safe to say that all their careers will benefit from being on the same staff together.
Back to OP question  
Shecky : 7/29/2015 9:56 am : link
Just for the sake of putting a list together

1 Harvey - why? Simply because we already know he has proven he is Cy Young caliber and dominant. Filthy stuff with one of the best mental makeups for a pitcher imaginable.

2 DeGrom - great stuff, track record is being proven. Not the same as Harvey, but mental makeup to trust in a game 7

3 Thor - ridiculous stuff to go with the upside of his youth. Scary to think might he might become when he puts it all together and has learned how to pitch. Can't crack my top two for simple lack of mental makeup needed in the biggest of games - though he seems to have improved leaps and bounds there.

4 Matz - completely unproven other than two great starts. Very good stuff, but doesn't have the control nor command of the above three. Bulldog attitude is off the charts, but will always have a shoulder concern for me.

5 Wheeler - I've never been a big fan of his around here, so this is an easy one for me. I've always called him John Maine... Due to trade value, I'd keep Niese over him as a 5th starter personally.
Fulmer  
sshin05 : 7/29/2015 10:03 am : link
Mark Simon ‏@msimonespn
Michael Fulmer last 9 starts at Double-A

53 1/3 IP
0.68 ERA

61 K, 9 BB
1 HR allowed
RE: Fangraphs  
Shecky : 7/29/2015 10:05 am : link
In comment 12390815 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
goes after the Wilpons Link - ( New Window )


Do you agree with the article Dan?
RE: Fulmer  
Shecky : 7/29/2015 10:06 am : link
In comment 12390876 sshin05 said:
Quote:
Mark Simon ‏@msimonespn
Michael Fulmer last 9 starts at Double-A

53 1/3 IP
0.68 ERA

61 K, 9 BB
1 HR allowed


WOW, knew he was on a roll, but had no clue his numbers were looking THAT good the last two months. PROMOTE that man!!
Dan  
stretch234 : 7/29/2015 10:08 am : link
I meant ridiculous in terms of him being a 5th starter on a staff in MLB - not in terms of against the others. I was not clear
Shecky  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:08 am : link
fact is the Mets have not spent a SINGLE "new" dollar this season so whatever the reason, Sandy, Fred. It's disgusting to me. I like you a lot but you consistently claim Fred is willing to spend but there is ZERO proof of that. They saved 6.1 as of yesterday on Mejia and Wright and will save the remainder of Mejia's money now.
highest ceiling  
Torrag : 7/29/2015 10:08 am : link
1) Thor- He's a beast physically. So strong. Intimidating presence on the mound. His fastball is consistently overpowering.

2) Harvey- His repertoire of pitches and command are rare. Tough mentality. Wants the ball.

3) DeGrom- Natural movement on his ball is electric. Aggressive mindset to attack hitters.

I'll stop there for me Wheeler is a notch below these three and I need to see more of Matz and his durability could be a problem.

Three legit aces on one staff is crazy. I don't know if I've ever seen a group of five as good as these guys can be if/when we get everyone healthy and in the rotation.
RE: Dan  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:10 am : link
In comment 12390886 stretch234 said:
Quote:
I meant ridiculous in terms of him being a 5th starter on a staff in MLB - not in terms of against the others. I was not clear


makes more sense lol sorry.
The Wilponsis have yet to prove they are willing to spend  
Torrag : 7/29/2015 10:12 am : link
I'll believe it when I see it. I don't trust them.
Anyone interested in Puig?  
chris r : 7/29/2015 10:12 am : link
I just read an article about how absolutely hated he is by teammates, but that talent.

I also wonder if he's really 24.
Our clubhouse is really good right now  
Torrag : 7/29/2015 10:17 am : link
It can probably absorb a dickhead like Puig without too much trouble. As with any deal it would depend on the price. If talent was the only consideration it is a no brainer.
Dan re article  
Shecky : 7/29/2015 10:18 am : link
You know position, Fred will spend it's Sandy who is holding back. Whether that's right or wrong, ultimately doesn't matter since they haven't been spending. Which is frustrating to every single fan.

But. The article itself. Not on it's cover - the actual meat and potatoes of what's written - you find the article fair? Not looking to debate it since no one is right or wrong, just asking your opinion. Since you are probably one of the most knowledgeable Mets fan here, and one of the most frustrated on the lack of spending.
.  
arcarsenal : 7/29/2015 10:20 am : link
Puig hasn't been great this year but his contract is hugely valuable.. locked up 3 more years for cheap. They can't stand him in LA, though... and he'd cost a LOT. Can't see it happening.
A's  
sshin05 : 7/29/2015 10:23 am : link
rotation in the early 2000's were good, I can see that sort of comparison. Mulder, Hudson, and Zito, they won a lot of games.
'Fred will spend it's Sandy who is holding back'...  
Torrag : 7/29/2015 10:23 am : link
This makes no sense. Sandy won't deal just to do something and he isn't going to radically overpay. The $$$ comes from the Wilponsis. This has been going on for years. You really think sandy preferred bargain basement shopping on guys like Chris Young and his ilk? Does that sound like fun for a GM?

You put a lot of smart and interesting stuff out Shecky but you'll need a shovel to sell this one.
Well a few things  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:24 am : link
1. I've given up trying to understand the loan stuff. That's beyond my paygrade

2. Sandy claims they have money to spend, but to this point they 100% have not. I don't see how fans can continue to "buy" this until proven otherwise.

3. The claim was made if the fans come out the payroll would go up. Then the team themselves claims 17% increase in sales yet (again it's not 7/31 yet) the math works out to the Mets actually SAVING money on the season for Mejia+Wright vs. the 2 trades.

4. Wilpons aren't going anywhere.
sshin  
Torrag : 7/29/2015 10:25 am : link
That A's staff was damn good. It doesn't have the power arms up and down the rotation this Mets cadre has.
There are Met fans who haven't figured out  
arniefez : 7/29/2015 10:25 am : link
that Wilpons are broke? There are Met fans who haven't figured out that the Mets are being run like a team that's gone bankrupt? PT Barnum was right.
RE: Anyone interested in Puig?  
sshin05 : 7/29/2015 10:25 am : link
In comment 12390900 chris r said:
Quote:
I just read an article about how absolutely hated he is by teammates, but that talent.

I also wonder if he's really 24.


It's a little scary, his numbers are trending down since 2013. He might need a change of scenery but his cost could come down.
I read an article on Puig that suggested that he's getting  
Ten Ton Hammer : 7/29/2015 10:28 am : link
quite caught up in the lifestyle of being a rich athlete.

I guess when you go from playing in Cuba to living the high life, it would turn anyone a little nuts.
Why would you trust the Wilpons  
Deej : 7/29/2015 10:30 am : link
They're hustling the A's to pick up salary in a non-salary dump trade. Tells you all you need to know.

What Im less impressed by is the end of that article. I just cant fault the Mets for not trading for Tulo, Reyes, or Cargo. Those guys are huge injury risks. The only available guy who really gets my juices flowing is Gomez, who could require a Lagares plus a really high end guy (Matz, Conforto etc), plus. You just cant speak to any potential trade without knowing the particulars, and with injured guys, the extent of the injury.
Maybe it is somwhere in between  
steve in ky : 7/29/2015 10:30 am : link
Sandy likely has limits (most GM's do) but maybe his limits have been higher than he has used to this point preferring to wait until the right timing and opportunity to use it all.

He obviously doesn't have unlimited money at his disposal and with this pitching staff if he builds it right this team can be set for championship type potential for years to come. Better he is cautious and tries to get it right than forcing things at this point and blowing it. He may have only one really good chance at getting this right.
RE: RE: Anyone interested in Puig?  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:31 am : link
In comment 12390927 sshin05 said:
Quote:
In comment 12390900 chris r said:


Quote:


I just read an article about how absolutely hated he is by teammates, but that talent.

I also wonder if he's really 24.



It's a little scary, his numbers are trending down since 2013. He might need a change of scenery but his cost could come down.


Puig was worth 5.3 fWAR last year. Still roughly 3fWAR this year if he played all season.
RE: There are Met fans who haven't figured out  
Shecky : 7/29/2015 10:32 am : link
In comment 12390926 arniefez said:
Quote:
that Wilpons are broke? There are Met fans who haven't figured out that the Mets are being run like a team that's gone bankrupt? PT Barnum was right.


I'm a circus lover, what can I say. Visited their museum in Sarasota many a times...

Torrag - So no one is buying my bullshit still lol? I just bought a boatload of manure and have no one left to sell too. DAMN.

Other than Z, perhaps I am the last Mets fan standing thinking we are in a very good place right now. I've been heartbroken each of the last twice this week though, so I am getting more and more frustrated like everyone else.
Off  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:36 am : link
topic a bit but despite their praise I don't think people realize how INSANELY good the Cardinals have been at cultivating talent. If you look at their roster it's mind boggling.
.  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:38 am : link
Pedro Lopez quotes on Nimmo don't exactly boost his trade value lol #Mets



B-Mets manager Pedro Lopez said. "Unfortunately, after he got hurt he wasn't the same. I don't think the jumps and the routes were the same. I guess, due to the injury he couldn't reach that last gear like he used to. I'll tell you, he did a good job. I think his at-bats were better. I think he was growing as a hitter, as a player overall."


and

Quote:
"When you got knee problems, that's going to effect you because you can't use your lower half the way that you're supposed to, and he's still afraid a little bit," Natera said. "You can see it when he's running too. He's not the same runner, even in the outfield. You don't see the same jump because he knee is not 100 percent. No doubt, that will effect his power a little bit. At least now, maybe because of that, he uses his hands much better."
I think we're in a good place overall  
Torrag : 7/29/2015 10:38 am : link
Pitching is the most valuable commodity to have in baseball and we have it in spades.

Our recent moves make a playoff berth a reasonable possibility. Those are good things.

We're still a legit middle of the order bat away from being true contenders. That isn't easy to find without compromising the organization.

BTW Sandy seemed a little annoyed that Tulo was dealt to Toronto. Guess work here but he probably feels he had the best offer on the table. We know the owners lied to Tulo about consulting him on destination. With his health the last place he would have chosen is the worst turf in the league.
Not sure how any Mets fan can be down on them right now  
steve in ky : 7/29/2015 10:43 am : link
Arguably the best young pitching staff in the game and one game out of first place in what has to still be considered a rebuilding year.
Isn't  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:43 am : link
there a difference between being down or "not excited" and being really disappointed they won't spend money to help the team? EVERYONE agreed they needed a bat.
Im pretty sure the Giants  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 10:46 am : link
teams thought they were a TRUE BAT away from being a contender as well.
What player that is out there  
Headhunter : 7/29/2015 10:47 am : link
the Wilpon's didn't allow SA to go after because of $$$?
RE: Isn't  
steve in ky : 7/29/2015 10:47 am : link
In comment 12390973 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
there a difference between being down or "not excited" and being really disappointed they won't spend money to help the team? EVERYONE agreed they needed a bat.


Debating between "down" or "disappointed" really is just semantics isn't it?
RE: RE: Isn't  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:49 am : link
In comment 12390987 steve in ky said:
Quote:
In comment 12390973 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


there a difference between being down or "not excited" and being really disappointed they won't spend money to help the team? EVERYONE agreed they needed a bat.



Debating between "down" or "disappointed" really is just semantics isn't it?


Totally disagree. Excited about aspects of the team, disappointed ownership refuses to do more. If that's your rationale the Mets could do NOTHING all off-season and you would be happy because of the young pitching. If that's your rationale why do we even talk about making additions or needs?
Sorry, but had to laugh at this Thor quote  
Shecky : 7/29/2015 10:49 am : link
"I've learned so much from [pitching coach Dan Warthen], [Matt] Harvey and [Jacob] deGrom, and even Bartolo [Colon], even with the language barrier. It's a lot of fun being able to watch him go out there and have as much fun as he does"

Bartolo, the great mentor of the kids. "even Bartolo", as if it was a surprise. And what has he learned? "To have fun" lol
RE: Im pretty sure the Giants  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:49 am : link
In comment 12390979 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
teams thought they were a TRUE BAT away from being a contender as well.


You flat out said you would be very disappointed if Sandy didn't add a bat. Talk about back tracking.
RE: What player that is out there  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 10:50 am : link
In comment 12390986 Headhunter said:
Quote:
the Wilpon's didn't allow SA to go after because of $$$?


They haven't added a single dollar in payroll. You don't find that to be unusual for a playoff contending team with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball with CLEAR needs? How about some bench speed? A second lefty? No needs at all?
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