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NFT: Met fans- which pitcher has the highest ceiling?

Headhunter : 7/29/2015 7:50 am
everyone is healthy, everyone is completely back to pre surgery strength and command. I don't know, I go back and forth on all 5 of them. They each
can make a case for being the best on this staff. Who has the highest ceiling?
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Ryan Braun  
Deej : 7/29/2015 1:39 pm : link
is a 2 - 2.5 WAR player making 3 WAR money. With age (nearly 32) and PEDs concerns. Why does he have positive value enough to get a prospect haul back? He should be a semi-salary dump, or else free agents are getting way underpaid at $~7/fWAR.
RE: Ryan Braun  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 1:41 pm : link
In comment 12391616 Deej said:
Quote:
is a 2 - 2.5 WAR player making 3 WAR money. With age (nearly 32) and PEDs concerns. Why does he have positive value enough to get a prospect haul back? He should be a semi-salary dump, or else free agents are getting way underpaid at $~7/fWAR.


Yup.
RE: Chris Archer through 6 has a perfect game  
feelflows : 7/29/2015 1:42 pm : link
In comment 12391613 Headhunter said:
Quote:
going with 10K's against the Tigers


nice jinx lol
Sandy Alderson  
Headhunter : 7/29/2015 1:43 pm : link
Oh well  
Headhunter : 7/29/2015 1:44 pm : link
.
RE: Sandy Alderson  
Ten Ton Hammer : 7/29/2015 1:46 pm : link
In comment 12391623 Headhunter said:
Quote:


I like that Matz is represented as an ace already : )
Nimmo  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 1:47 pm : link
for Parra, yes or no?
.  
Headhunter : 7/29/2015 1:47 pm : link
Andrew Vazzano 8m
Mets have held opponents to two runs or fewer 43 times this year, the fourth-most games in MLB. The Mets are 34-9 in those games.
RE: Arc - how about Puig?  
arcarsenal : 7/29/2015 1:48 pm : link
In comment 12391589 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
serious question because that's the only guy out there that would get me thinking seriously. Though I'm sure they'd ask for Wheeler also, and to me that's possibly way too rich given his #'s this season.


Puig just scares me. So many reports that they just can't stand him. Great talent but I don't know if I want to bring that into this clubhouse.
Though I might be wrong here in assuming that Matz is Jewish  
Ten Ton Hammer : 7/29/2015 1:48 pm : link
the name threw me off.
The Mets need more than one bat  
chris r : 7/29/2015 1:49 pm : link
dealing their best hitting prospect doesn't make much sense to me.
RE: Though I might be wrong here in assuming that Matz is Jewish  
sshin05 : 7/29/2015 1:49 pm : link
In comment 12391636 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
the name threw me off.


here ya go
Link - ( New Window )
Fangraphs  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 1:50 pm : link
aren't buying

@fangraphs not believers in Parra http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/gerardo-parra-career-year-or-productive-mirage/ #Mets
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Nimmo  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 1:51 pm : link
In comment 12391632 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
for Parra, yes or no?


Im higher on Nimmo than most so Id try swap that for Rosario or somebody but gun to my head I probably do it. Think he'd add another dynamic to this team this year and give us a much needed leadoff hitter.
RE: Nimmo  
sshin05 : 7/29/2015 1:52 pm : link
In comment 12391632 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
for Parra, yes or no?


I know ppl are down on Nimmo but i think he's got a chance to be a solid player and I know you have to give up something to get something. But that sucks for me.
RE: RE: Though I might be wrong here in assuming that Matz is Jewish  
Ten Ton Hammer : 7/29/2015 1:52 pm : link
In comment 12391639 sshin05 said:
Quote:
In comment 12391636 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:


the name threw me off.



here ya go Link - ( New Window )


Now I don't feel so bad for assuming. Thanks!
Very  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 1:53 pm : link
strange how Nimmo goes from talking about the power he unlocked in ST with Kevin Long to not homering in now 60 straight games.
No chance  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 1:55 pm : link
Parra is really a .330 hitter. He's been a bit lucky it appears. His BABIP is high but checking back on his history literally every season of his career his BABIP is 30-to 50 points higher than his average. He certainly looks like he might be one of those players that will ALWAYS have a higher BABIP.
RE: No chance  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 1:56 pm : link
In comment 12391651 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Parra is really a .330 hitter. He's been a bit lucky it appears. His BABIP is high but checking back on his history literally every season of his career his BABIP is 30-to 50 points higher than his average. He certainly looks like he might be one of those players that will ALWAYS have a higher BABIP.


It's not his BABIP they don't believe in. Article goes in depth. They think this is a fluke season (which does sometimes happen). His approach apparently is all over the place but has been lucky this year.
,  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 1:57 pm : link
"t’s a mess. Small samples blah blah blah, but there’s no discernible game plan here. There should be a game plan — you think there would be one, given the ISO heat maps — but there’s not. And that’s why I’m reluctant to declare Parra has transcended the need for a timeshare (regardless of the abilities of his counterpart) and surely why Manager Craig Counsell has yet to permit it. Parra’s four extra-base hits (of 14 total hits) against lefties this year very truthfully happened and we can never take that away from him. But that make the accomplishment any less of an anomaly, and it looks to me like Parra didn’t as much earn the XBHs as much as he simply happened into them. I acknowledge that just because he doesn’t swing often at a certain pitch location doesn’t mean he’s incapable of hitting that pitch location with authority. However, you’d expect that a hitter swings most at pitches he thinks he can hit best. This is my concern, dude.

His true quality of batsmanship, therefore, comes back to the question of his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). My expected BABIP (xBABIP) equation pegs Parra for a .341 xBABIP, largely validating his current .351 BABIP that, if the season ended now, would represent a career-best rate. Parra has always been a high-BABIP guy — .325 career, .305 at his worst — but not necessarily with consistency. In other words, another .300-plus batting average next year asks a lot.

Still, Parra, 28, is theoretically entering his prime; his batted ball profile could actually improve — or, if anything, remain stable and not regress — next year, and he could prove me (edit: and Sarris and Sporer) wrong. But the lifted truck behind us has its high beams blasting into the rear-view mirror and they’re hard to ignore and they’re really bright but if you squint hard enough the bumper sticker says “Six Years of Predominantly Mediocre Offense.” Losses in his batted ball gains will correspond with losses in power and BABIP, reducing Parra to his former self.

For now, Parra is a serviceable fantasy outfielder in that he’ll contribute, albeit modestly, to every standard offensive category. But I am loath to expect he won’t regress next year. Parra epitomizes the hot hand (depending on your definition of hot and, maybe, hand), and I advocate riding it, depending on your needs. But I don’t anticipate valuable production from Parra beyond this season."
RE: Very  
Shecky : 7/29/2015 1:57 pm : link
In comment 12391649 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
strange how Nimmo goes from talking about the power he unlocked in ST with Kevin Long to not homering in now 60 straight games.


Zero is an incredible number. Though if what his manager said in that linked article is true re his knee. It would explain a lot about lack of a lot of HRs. Just not sure how he has zero...
Also read that  
Headhunter : 7/29/2015 1:58 pm : link
Nimmo's leg injury has robbed him of his lower body and effects his power. I don't know that he is 100% healthy. he does get hurt a lot
I'd  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 1:59 pm : link
be conflicted Nimmo for Parra because Parra strikes me as Melky 2.0. Great season at a great time but scared the wheels would fall off.
RE: RE: Very  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 2:00 pm : link
In comment 12391656 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 12391649 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


strange how Nimmo goes from talking about the power he unlocked in ST with Kevin Long to not homering in now 60 straight games.



Zero is an incredible number. Though if what his manager said in that linked article is true re his knee. It would explain a lot about lack of a lot of HRs. Just not sure how he has zero...


Yup. Last homer came April 14th
Problem  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 2:04 pm : link
with blaming Nimmo's knee injury is he also didn't homer a single time over 28 games between his 2nd homer and getting hurt. I don't doubt his knee could be an issue since then but just strikes me as weird a guy of that build could show so little power and suddenly walk less.
Its not like he's been playing  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 2:08 pm : link
since April 14th either. He missed a nice chunk of time due to injury. I just don't understand the obsession with homeruns and Nimmo. It was always said it would develop late with him due to how raw he was when he was drafted if at all. He's flashed some homerun ability at different points but as a future leadoff type Im far more concerned with his ability to hit for average, take a walk, and hopefully be able to stick in CF where his value would be best utilized.

Pie in the sky everything works out and talent is utilized I see him as a Choo or Gardner type with less speed.
I know this isn't entirely fair  
chris r : 7/29/2015 2:09 pm : link
but if Nimmo wasn't a first round pick, no one would be talking about him.
.  
arcarsenal : 7/29/2015 2:09 pm : link
I would do Nimmo for Parra. Not the most ideal but I'd still do it. I'm just not that high on Nimmo. Never was. I had Conforto pegged as "the guy" from basically right after he was drafted.
And Choo when he was going well  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 2:10 pm : link
not the abomination he's turned into.
Not sure why home runs are a sticking point anyway  
Ten Ton Hammer : 7/29/2015 2:11 pm : link
Home runs are projections until your mid-20s.

Unless you're a special kind of all-star in waiting.
Nimmo  
Shecky : 7/29/2015 2:15 pm : link
Everyone always raves about him, the person, the talent, etc. works hard.

But. The one critique I heard about him always stuck with me. Does he love the game? He doesn't have the Harvey personality, the DeGrom personality, cechinni, or Conforto personality. All different but ultimately gym rats who love the game. I've heard Nimmo works hard and a good student, but does he truly LOVE the game?

Reason I mention that is, I wonder if the injuries have taken their toll. And more importantly the expectations and criticism?
Its all on how you look at him  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 2:16 pm : link
I've always maintained if you were expecting some middle of the order basher you were going to be severely disappointed. Gardner hit 17 homeruns once in his life but is generally much lower than that. Kind of how I always saw Nimmo if he fulfilled his potential. He'll run into a few but on base ability was always going to be his calling card.

I still think Lagares has to have a left-handed platoon mate over the next couple years also and Nimmo could make a nice part of that platoon in 2016.
RE: Nimmo  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 2:18 pm : link
In comment 12391691 Shecky said:
Quote:
Everyone always raves about him, the person, the talent, etc. works hard.

But. The one critique I heard about him always stuck with me. Does he love the game? He doesn't have the Harvey personality, the DeGrom personality, cechinni, or Conforto personality. All different but ultimately gym rats who love the game. I've heard Nimmo works hard and a good student, but does he truly LOVE the game?

Reason I mention that is, I wonder if the injuries have taken their toll. And more importantly the expectations and criticism?


Im seriously confused about this. People in the organization rave about him, the talent, the person, works hard but your wondering if he loves baseball?
RE: Not sure why home runs are a sticking point anyway  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 2:21 pm : link
In comment 12391684 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
Home runs are projections until your mid-20s.

Unless you're a special kind of all-star in waiting.


He has one steal and isn't walking like he had previously. Which stats this year should we be focusing on? Law was unimpressed (after liking him previously). I think the critiques are more than fair. should be noted Law was on the Smith and Cecchini bandwagons even when they were struggling
Law  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 2:22 pm : link
Said his swing looked long, that he's turned into a ground ball machine and that his year was disappointing. Not just about the homers
RE: I know this isn't entirely fair  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 2:22 pm : link
In comment 12391679 chris r said:
Quote:
but if Nimmo wasn't a first round pick, no one would be talking about him.


I highly doubt he'd be a top 50 on BA currently with multiple appearances and consistently in the top 100 if it was only because he was a first round pick. Cecchini was nowhere near a list until this year and upcoming year and he is also a first round pick.
No doubt Shecky knows something  
pjcas18 : 7/29/2015 2:23 pm : link
but here some information from post-draft reports on Nimmo.

and from some of the stuff I read about him not having a high school team and all the travel he had to do to play I don't know if I'd question his love for the game? But he did get $2M at 18 years old, maybe burnout? If anything. Just going by what Shecky posted and trying to read between the lines.

Quote:
“I want to make it to New York as quick as possible and please everyone in New York and be an All-Star and be all that stuff everyone wants from their first-rounder. But it’s going to take a few years to do that, but I can’t wait to get started. I love goals.”

You can see Nimmo already has a big-league personality.

His American Legion coach Tagg Lain runs the Cheyenne Post Six program that produces a 70-game schedule, a schedule this year that included a week of “spring training” in Arizona so that the bevy of scouts following Brandon could watch daily eight-hour workouts.

“I’ve coached Bryce Harper in the Tournament of Stars,” says Lain, who has coached 18 years and has won nine of the last 10 American Legion state championships with Post Six. “That’s when I told [tournament officials] that I’ve got a guy who is that close to Bryce. There is not a huge gap between those two guys.”
RE: RE: I know this isn't entirely fair  
chris r : 7/29/2015 2:26 pm : link
In comment 12391707 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 12391679 chris r said:


Quote:


but if Nimmo wasn't a first round pick, no one would be talking about him.



I highly doubt he'd be a top 50 on BA currently with multiple appearances and consistently in the top 100 if it was only because he was a first round pick. Cecchini was nowhere near a list until this year and upcoming year and he is also a first round pick.


What do you like about him? What are his plus tools? The best I can see is that he's got good plate discipline. Besides that he's decidedly average or worse in every facet of baseball as far as I can tell. I don't think that's enough. And he's not even young anymore.
RE: Law  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 2:27 pm : link
In comment 12391706 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Said his swing looked long, that he's turned into a ground ball machine and that his year was disappointing. Not just about the homers


We just had this discussion like a week ago. Don't think we need to re-hash it. His OBP is over .350 (yes his BABIP is a little high but also SSS), his wRC+ in AA is 111 and so far in Vegas 190. He's also had a injury riddled season and for all we know is being told NOT to run. His ability to stick in CF all this time is a big PLUS as far as Im concerned and I believe the bat is holding its own, even if not spectacular yet. We also know he gets red hot at times and puts up video game numbers for a few weeks at a time and we haven't seen that this year yet either. Also still 2-3 years younger than everyone in his league.
Just wondering out loud  
Shecky : 7/29/2015 2:28 pm : link
That's all
The simplest explanation for Nimmo  
Deej : 7/29/2015 2:28 pm : link
is the one given by his coach -- he's got a bad knee. So until further notice I'll go with that.
RE: RE: Not sure why home runs are a sticking point anyway  
Ten Ton Hammer : 7/29/2015 2:29 pm : link
In comment 12391703 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12391684 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:


Home runs are projections until your mid-20s.

Unless you're a special kind of all-star in waiting.



He has one steal and isn't walking like he had previously. Which stats this year should we be focusing on? Law was unimpressed (after liking him previously). I think the critiques are more than fair. should be noted Law was on the Smith and Cecchini bandwagons even when they were struggling


I was only referencing judging prospects on home runs. That's like the last stat I'd look at. Everything else is fair game.
Wow  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 2:30 pm : link
"So far in Vegas"... He's played ... 1 game
RE: RE: RE: I know this isn't entirely fair  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 2:30 pm : link
In comment 12391713 chris r said:
Quote:
In comment 12391707 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


In comment 12391679 chris r said:


Quote:


but if Nimmo wasn't a first round pick, no one would be talking about him.



I highly doubt he'd be a top 50 on BA currently with multiple appearances and consistently in the top 100 if it was only because he was a first round pick. Cecchini was nowhere near a list until this year and upcoming year and he is also a first round pick.



What do you like about him? What are his plus tools? The best I can see is that he's got good plate discipline. Besides that he's decidedly average or worse in every facet of baseball as far as I can tell. I don't think that's enough. And he's not even young anymore.


Wow. This is a mess. He's not young anymore?? He's 22 in AAA. 22 year olds are just getting drafted out of college this summer. He is 2-3 years younger than his level. He's hitting for average, always has a great eye, and he's playing a respectable CF from every report Ive read. What more do you want? Babe Ruth power and 70 stolen bases? Nobody's saying this is the next Bryce Harper here but he's still solid prospect.
RE: Wow  
pjcas18 : 7/29/2015 2:30 pm : link
In comment 12391721 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
"So far in Vegas"... He's played ... 1 game


LOL
RE: Wow  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 2:31 pm : link
In comment 12391721 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
"So far in Vegas"... He's played ... 1 game


lol. Thought it was a few at least. My bad. Don't change anything I said.
Last  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 2:32 pm : link
I checked he was something like 38th in both wrc+ and woba for contest. 111 isn't a positive for a guy you are hoping to be a difference maker. If you are okay with him merely being a good platoon OF/Dejesus type this fine but that's not what people are expecting/wanting
RE: Last  
ZGiants98 : 7/29/2015 2:33 pm : link
In comment 12391726 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
I checked he was something like 38th in both wrc+ and woba for contest. 111 isn't a positive for a guy you are hoping to be a difference maker. If you are okay with him merely being a good platoon OF/Dejesus type this fine but that's not what people are expecting/wanting


Thats actually exactly what Im expecting though. A platoon partner for Lagares.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I know this isn't entirely fair  
chris r : 7/29/2015 2:36 pm : link
In comment 12391722 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 12391713 chris r said:


Quote:


In comment 12391707 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


In comment 12391679 chris r said:


Quote:


but if Nimmo wasn't a first round pick, no one would be talking about him.



I highly doubt he'd be a top 50 on BA currently with multiple appearances and consistently in the top 100 if it was only because he was a first round pick. Cecchini was nowhere near a list until this year and upcoming year and he is also a first round pick.



What do you like about him? What are his plus tools? The best I can see is that he's got good plate discipline. Besides that he's decidedly average or worse in every facet of baseball as far as I can tell. I don't think that's enough. And he's not even young anymore.



Wow. This is a mess. He's not young anymore?? He's 22 in AAA. 22 year olds are just getting drafted out of college this summer. He is 2-3 years younger than his level. He's hitting for average, always has a great eye, and he's playing a respectable CF from every report Ive read. What more do you want? Babe Ruth power and 70 stolen bases? Nobody's saying this is the next Bryce Harper here but he's still solid prospect.


What are his plus tools? Besides great eye you haven't named one.

And you'd hope a 22 year old would be developed enough to hit a home run or two ever sixty games.
RE: RE: Last  
DanMetroMan : 7/29/2015 2:37 pm : link
In comment 12391730 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 12391726 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


I checked he was something like 38th in both wrc+ and woba for contest. 111 isn't a positive for a guy you are hoping to be a difference maker. If you are okay with him merely being a good platoon OF/Dejesus type this fine but that's not what people are expecting/wanting



Thats actually exactly what Im expecting though. A platoon partner for Lagares.


And if that's your want/expectation then you have a good shot at getting that but I think the vast majority are expecting a core player, "another Conforto", maybe even an all-star.
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