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NFT: Another FF discussion: who would you keep?

santacruzom : 7/30/2015 12:31 pm
First off, our league kind of sucks and I'm not sure why I'm annually compelled to try to come out on top in it. It's a 14 team league with three freaking keepers, so as a general rule the top 40 players are already spoken for. They also don't use a snake draft, meaning I'll be picking 12th every round this year. So keep in mind that my first round pick doesn't represent the value it would in most leagues.

I've got quite a few guys I picked up on waivers last year, and our rule is to have them cost a 10th pick if kept. If two waivers are kept, you'd lose a 10th and an 11th pick. And so on. I scored with OBJ, and he's obviously my first keeper.

Just not sure what to do with my other two. I'm debating between:

Jimmy Graham, 1st round
CJ Spiller, 2nd round
Martavis Bryant, 11th or 12th round
Derek Carr, 11th or 12th round

I'm tempted to take Carr, but we're such a QB-dominant league (6 points per passing TD -- the top 5 scorers are almost always all QB's) that I'll likely want to spend a high pick on the best QB available. But then, if Carr goes off I'd have him for one more year at the cost of an 11th or 12th. I've read great things about the expectations for Bryant this year -- what if I take OBJ, Bryant and Carr, thus maintaining my 1st through 9th picks? But then, those picks kind of suck because they're essentially the same as 4th through 13th picks, with me owning the 3rd to last pick in each round. Should I just take Graham with my 1st? But then, people say Spiller in New Orleans is likely to have 60-70 catches this season and we're a PPR league!

Lend me your strength FF fanatics!
I'm in a 14 team keeper league that I ask myself why I bother as well  
YAJ2112 : 7/30/2015 1:59 pm : link
Anyway, what's the scoring in your league - PPR? How many do you start at RB/WR/Flex? Do most people keep players from the first few rounds where your 1.12 or 2.12 picks are going to be among the top few non-keeper picks made?
YAJ  
santacruzom : 7/30/2015 3:29 pm : link
I'd say that half the people will be kicking #1 picks, but I won't know for sure until the end of the month. There are usually quite a few who did well enough in the later rounds or waiver wire to keep those players over their first-rounders.

We start 2 WR's, 2 RB's and one flex. I can't remember the scoring and it may change anyway, as our league often does, but I believe receptions are .5 each. In our league, QB's and WR's generally outscore RB's and I'm therefore very torn about Jimmy Graham, who when healthy outscores all but a handful of RB's at the TE position.
If I were you  
YAJ2112 : 7/30/2015 3:47 pm : link
I'd go through the rosters of other teams and figure out who you think will be kept, so you can have a decent idea of who will be available and how many picks will actually get made before your 2nd pick.

Not knowing the above, I'd lean towards keeping Bryant and one of Graham/Spiller. I just can't see keeping Carr, I don't see him as a top 14 QB guy for 2015 so you are keeping a backup QB whom you likely could still get back in the 9th-11th round if you really want him.

Your first few rounds will be filled with 4th/5th round guys plus a few 1st-3rd round talents right at the top who won't be kept for whatever reason. Depending on how many picks are used in front of you, there may be someone better than Graham that you could get if you keep Spiller instead. Given that it's 14 teams though, I'd much rather keep Graham over Spiller for the position scarcity element if you don't see any top talent being available to you if you were to hold onto your pick at 1.12
the tricky part  
santacruzom : 7/30/2015 7:52 pm : link
is that a few of the players in this league seem to stubbornly cling to the idea that RB's win titles for you. I'm tempted to keep Carr because he's got really good second year potential for an end-of-the-draft pick, but if a) I use my first rounder on the best QB available or b) no one else picks Carr and I can get him in the 11th anyway, it's a wasted keeper.
the other rough part  
santacruzom : 7/30/2015 7:54 pm : link
is that Yahoo makes it really tedious to figure out who can be kept (we can only keep players for three years and there's no easy indication of when a player was drafted) and what round they'd cost if they are kept. It's hard to look through other rosters and gauge who the opponents can or will keep.
RE: the other rough part  
YAJ2112 : 7/30/2015 9:46 pm : link
In comment 12394896 santacruzom said:
Quote:
is that Yahoo makes it really tedious to figure out who can be kept (we can only keep players for three years and there's no easy indication of when a player was drafted) and what round they'd cost if they are kept. It's hard to look through other rosters and gauge who the opponents can or will keep.


Well someone has to know, otherwise how do the league know when a player can no longer be kept?
I'd keep Graham  
djm : 7/30/2015 11:26 pm : link
And one of Bryant or spiller. I think I'd keep Bryant without looking at his numbers from last year. I think he was a decent #2-3 FF WR. Spiller was not really a decent #2-3 FF RB and hasn't been save for one maybe 2 seasons. I love his talent tho.. Everyone does. Still, adding it all up the lower compensatory draft pick for Bryant kind of makes it a no brainer. You can get similar value with spillers 2nd round pick even if spiller peaks this year.
You can probably draft a pretty good rb with that 2nd rounder  
djm : 7/30/2015 11:27 pm : link
Or a stud WR...
RE: You can probably draft a pretty good rb with that 2nd rounder  
YAJ2112 : 7/31/2015 12:45 am : link
In comment 12395265 djm said:
Quote:
Or a stud WR...


With 42 keepers, there isn't likely to be a decent RB or stud WR at 2.12
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