First off, our league kind of sucks and I'm not sure why I'm annually compelled to try to come out on top in it. It's a 14 team league with three freaking keepers, so as a general rule the top 40 players are already spoken for. They also don't use a snake draft, meaning I'll be picking 12th every round this year. So keep in mind that my first round pick doesn't represent the value it would in most leagues.
I've got quite a few guys I picked up on waivers last year, and our rule is to have them cost a 10th pick if kept. If two waivers are kept, you'd lose a 10th and an 11th pick. And so on. I scored with OBJ, and he's obviously my first keeper.
Just not sure what to do with my other two. I'm debating between:
Jimmy Graham, 1st round
CJ Spiller, 2nd round
Martavis Bryant, 11th or 12th round
Derek Carr, 11th or 12th round
I'm tempted to take Carr, but we're such a QB-dominant league (6 points per passing TD -- the top 5 scorers are almost always all QB's) that I'll likely want to spend a high pick on the best QB available. But then, if Carr goes off I'd have him for one more year at the cost of an 11th or 12th. I've read great things about the expectations for Bryant this year -- what if I take OBJ, Bryant and Carr, thus maintaining my 1st through 9th picks? But then, those picks kind of suck because they're essentially the same as 4th through 13th picks, with me owning the 3rd to last pick in each round. Should I just take Graham with my 1st? But then, people say Spiller in New Orleans is likely to have 60-70 catches this season and we're a PPR league!
Lend me your strength FF fanatics!
We start 2 WR's, 2 RB's and one flex. I can't remember the scoring and it may change anyway, as our league often does, but I believe receptions are .5 each. In our league, QB's and WR's generally outscore RB's and I'm therefore very torn about Jimmy Graham, who when healthy outscores all but a handful of RB's at the TE position.
Not knowing the above, I'd lean towards keeping Bryant and one of Graham/Spiller. I just can't see keeping Carr, I don't see him as a top 14 QB guy for 2015 so you are keeping a backup QB whom you likely could still get back in the 9th-11th round if you really want him.
Your first few rounds will be filled with 4th/5th round guys plus a few 1st-3rd round talents right at the top who won't be kept for whatever reason. Depending on how many picks are used in front of you, there may be someone better than Graham that you could get if you keep Spiller instead. Given that it's 14 teams though, I'd much rather keep Graham over Spiller for the position scarcity element if you don't see any top talent being available to you if you were to hold onto your pick at 1.12
Well someone has to know, otherwise how do the league know when a player can no longer be kept?
With 42 keepers, there isn't likely to be a decent RB or stud WR at 2.12