NFT: The chance of a subway series

In comment 12401073 Deej said:

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This Marvel/DC divide is fucking ridiculous.

Batman is getting forgetful in his old age

Their first inkling of success in almost a decade and they're penciling themselves into the Series.

you'll see fans who are still very nervous about making the playoffs. Pittsburgh has a WC essentially in the bag. The Cubs are 2 games up on us for the other. Best path may be thru Washington, which has IMO the most talented lineup + rotation in MLB and a schedule that is almost as easy as ours.

spoken to one fan of the Mets who thinks the team is making or winning the World Series. We are hoping for the playoffs, and very nervous about getting there. Most I have heard is "If we make the playoffs, the team could be dangerous." But there is a very good chance the team won't make the playoffs. Washington is good.


I see Giants fans doing the same thing after wins and losses. The World is ending or this team is going all the way. All fanbases do this, including the Yankees in the midst of an actual race.

This feeling of superiority some New York fans have is really misguided. There are plenty of awful Giants fans, just like there are plenty of awful Mets fans and plenty of awful Yankees fans.

fans and media are talking about the big 3 and they just have to get in. Last year How did Detroits big 3 turn out.I'll tell you. They got Swept.

Although the mere presence of this thread, along with comments about how the Yankees have no chance despite a record that's four games better in a tough division, undermine your case.

as he's been posting and there was only one comment about the yanks having no chance.

I'm fairly confident most met fans are being cautiously optimistic and containing their excitement.

We all know how quickly things can fall apart.

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In comment 12401213 Greg from LI said:

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Although the mere presence of this thread, along with comments about how the Yankees have no chance despite a record that's four games better in a tough division, undermine your case.

Saying a subway series is "not an absurd notion" is predicting a World Series? I'm not sure I agree with that.

Of course there are some who think they are winning the world series, just like some Giants fans are predicting a Super Bowl. I saw a Yankees fan posting about how the yankees are going to win the World Series on Jim Bruer's facebook last night.

I just can't agree with the notion that this is common thought among Mets fans, as many have insinuated.

here are the current odds of each team making the postseason per BaseballProspectus* (division/WC)

Yankees: 93.3% (76.2/17.2)
Mets: 59.7% (54.5/5.2)

*

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Postseason probabilities are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and indicate each team's probability of winning the division or wild card, or any postseason berth. Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp - ( New Window )

I'm just glad we are witnessing meaningful August baseball.

I'd love to finish over .500 for the first time in 7 years, then make the playoffs.

If the Mets do make the playoffs and a fortunate enough to advance to the WS I honestly don't care even a little who the Mets opponent is, Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, don't care.

as for the chances of a Subway Series, sure there's a chance until both teams are eliminated.

both teams are in 1st place and it's August.

So what the fuck... why not?

In comment 12401284 pjcas18 said:

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I'm just glad we are witnessing meaningful August baseball. I'd love to finish over .500 for the first time in 7 years, then make the playoffs. If the Mets do make the playoffs and a fortunate enough to advance to the WS I honestly don't care even a little who the Mets opponent is, Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, don't care.

This.

The hardest throwing team in MLB has made the World Series 3 out of last 4 years
Royals 2014
Cards 2013
Rangers 2011

Highest % of pitches 95MPH+ since 2008
2015 Mets 22.8%
2009 Tigers 17.6
2014 Royals 16.2
2014 Marlins 14.8
2012 Rays 14.6
2015 Indians 13.4

back in the old days when Old Al Leiter and Mike Hampton were the Mets' best pitchers.

Who would look forward to facing that staff in the playoffs/WS?

Rich Coutinho
In my life 2 times Mets ruled this city and NYY fan reaction was Seaver and Koosman are not all that (69) and wait till u play Bosox (86)

Rich Coutinho
NYY deserve credit for their season my ? is why are their fans more concerned about Mets getting the back pages?

Rich Coutinho
I know Mets r getting very good when NYY fans get that high pitched screaming voice about NY baseball That train is never late

Rich Coutinho
I remember as a kid in 1969 when Mets finally took sole possession of first place from Cubs, Seaver said, "My God we have a magic #."

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In comment 12401480 BeerFridge said:

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back in the old days when Old Al Leiter and Mike Hampton were the Mets' best pitchers. Who would look forward to facing that staff in the playoffs/WS?

yeah, but the 2000 Mets lineup was practically the '27 Yankees compared to this group.

In comment 12401599 sphinx said:

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Rich Coutinho In my life 2 times Mets ruled this city and NYY fan reaction was Seaver and Koosman are not all that (69) and wait till u play Bosox (86) Rich Coutinho NYY deserve credit for their season my ? is why are their fans more concerned about Mets getting the back pages? Rich Coutinho I know Mets r getting very good when NYY fans get that high pitched screaming voice about NY baseball That train is never late Rich Coutinho I remember as a kid in 1969 when Mets finally took sole possession of first place from Cubs, Seaver said, "My God we have a magic #."

This must be the guy, about 12-13 years back, when the Yanks had opened 2 consecutive seasons with a West Coast trip and finally opened a year at home, who called WFAN and accused Major League Baseball of being in the tank for them because they opened at home.

we will likely have a meaningful Mets- Yankees series in September as both teams will probably be playing for needed wins.

In comment 12401615 Greg from LI said:

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In comment 12401480 BeerFridge said: Quote: back in the old days when Old Al Leiter and Mike Hampton were the Mets' best pitchers. Who would look forward to facing that staff in the playoffs/WS? yeah, but the 2000 Mets lineup was practically the '27 Yankees compared to this group.

If they wind up getting Wright back, the lineup is actually pretty decent. Which is insane considering how piss poor it was as recently as 10 days ago.

Duda catching fire, d'Arnaud returning and the acquisitions of Cespedes, Uribe and Johnson turned the entire thing over.

In comment 12401655 arcarsenal said:

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In comment 12401615 Greg from LI said: Quote: In comment 12401480 BeerFridge said: Quote: back in the old days when Old Al Leiter and Mike Hampton were the Mets' best pitchers. Who would look forward to facing that staff in the playoffs/WS? yeah, but the 2000 Mets lineup was practically the '27 Yankees compared to this group. If they wind up getting Wright back, the lineup is actually pretty decent. Which is insane considering how piss poor it was as recently as 10 days ago. Duda catching fire, d'Arnaud returning and the acquisitions of Cespedes, Uribe and Johnson turned the entire thing over.

Yeah if the Mets actually make it to the series I think it would mean that their lineup has come together by that point.

That gives the Mets three actual major league hitters, so that's great! I know Mets fans like to talk about D'Arnaud as if he were Mike Piazza, but the guy is hardly an established hitter. He had a nice month last year and a nice month this year. Swell. Wright's 33, hasn't taken a swing since April, and they're not sure when he's coming back. Even if he comes back, he was mediocre last year. At his age, and with back problems, I don't know how much you could actually expect from him.

And Kelly Johnson fucking sucks. He's garbage.

There's really no sense in debating anything with someone who is just going to make things up.

Zero Met fans talk about d'Arnaud as if he's Piazza. He's just got the highest offensive ceiling of any C we've had since (save for 1 year of Paul LoDuca, I guess...) and is a sizable upgrade over the players we've had to use in his absence.

Granderson is also having a nice year. I'd say we have more than 3 MLB hitters but I guess I'm just some delusional Mets fan...

In comment 12401716 Greg from LI said:

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That gives the Mets three actual major league hitters, so that's great! I know Mets fans like to talk about D'Arnaud as if he were Mike Piazza, but the guy is hardly an established hitter. He had a nice month last year and a nice month this year. Swell. Wright's 33, hasn't taken a swing since April, and they're not sure when he's coming back. Even if he comes back, he was mediocre last year. At his age, and with back problems, I don't know how much you could actually expect from him. And Kelly Johnson fucking sucks. He's garbage.

And all those reasons are way they may not even make the playoffs let alone the WS, but if they did make the WS you have to assume that their lineup came together and produced.

Which Mets fan is confusing TDA with Piazza? You're creating a strawman.

He can still smoke mistakes but good pitchers will get him to chase bad pitches.

Fine, forget Piazza - they talk about him like he's a plus MLB hitter, which is completely unproven. His numbers last year were relentlessly average, and while he got off to a hot start this year we're talking about what, 100 ABs.

I was mistaken - four legit hitters if you include Murphy with Duda, Granderson and Cespedes. He's pretty average, but he's OK.

i doubt either makes the ALCS/NLCS either.

But doesn't mean fans of both teams can't enjoy this ride and appreciate what both teams are doing this year. And certainly both teams will build from this in coming years.

The future is bright. And I could see one two years down the line.

quit pissing in our cheerios

your posts are dripping with condescension

You guys get to enjoy competitive baseball most years, do we not get to enjoy when we're finally competitive without having to read the condescending BS?

d'Arnaud's numbers last year are "relentlessly average" because he was absolutely pitiful/lost from the start of the season until early June. He got sent down for a couple weeks and was a completely different hitter when he returned.

3/31 - 6/6 (128 AB): .180/.271/.273/.544, 3 HR, 3 2B, 9 RBI, 25 K's

6/24 - 9/3 (247 AB): .272/.319/.486/.805, 10 HR, 19 2B, 32 RBI, 32 K's

He's basically maintained what he was post-demotion in the limited time he's played this year as well.

I don't know who the "they" is that you are referring to but there's reason to be optimistic about him as a hitter moving forward if he can actually stay healthy.

it's what he does best. :)

Granderson is still a flawed player but he's carved out a nice niche as a leadoff man this year. He's been getting on base at a solid clip and his power has been pretty good. He should hit ~25 HR's this year. The value is certainly there. He's on pace to be a 4 WAR player this year.

being happy for once. In any event, all we need is ok offense. We've been bad this year on offense, but we have the potential to add back 3 "professional" bats in a 3 week span -- Wright, Ces, and TDA.

Yes TDA is unproven. But you need to look his 2014 as two seasons -- before and after his early-summer demotion. Before: terrible. After: 250 ABs at 800 OPS. So over the last 13 months, he's about a 815 OPS catcher in 350 ABs. Inexperienced, but watching him he's clearly a mature, good hitter.

But the real strength of the team isnt the lineup. The lineup just needs to give us a chance. It's the pitchers who will win us playoff round(s) if we're so fortunate. Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard are fantastic. And throw hard stuff that is made for playoff baseball.

Because I loathe the Mets. I would have thought that was obvious.

No kidding the rotation will be what has to carry the team, but that alone usually isn't enough. I'd think the Braves proved that pretty convincingly.

just infantile. Do you loathe the Jets too?

And when I was growing up in the '80s, the Mets were the better team. Had to hear bullshit constantly from my uncles and cousins as a kid, so it nurtured a pretty healthy hatred for them.

And cmon - there are plenty of Mets fans who despise the Yankees.

is incredible and singlehandedly is going to give you a chance in any series in the post-season. But you'll need that hitting to atleast be "mediocre" instead of "awful" if you want to win it all.

Yanks: #2 in OPS+
Mets: #30 in OPS+ (aka dead last)

Mets: #2 in ERA+
Yanks: #17 in ERA+

I love the Yanks but because of how much we're relying on an old A-Rod/Teix duo, I'm not even thinking about the World Series until we get to the end of September and both of them are healthy.

Met fans have a reason to despise the Yankees (though I don't, I'm just indifferent towards them mostly)

I would think after 30 years, you'd be over despising the Mets though. Did your family like tie you down and brand you with Mets logos or something? The Yankees have won like 20 World Series' since then. The Mets would be the last thing I cared about.. there's no argument to be had between the franchises, one obviously has quite a bit more history than the other.

But hey, if you want to be grumpy go on ahead :)

Can't blame us for being hopeful about the Mets' future after being a laughingstock for so long though. We've endured a lot of bullshit.

If you must hate on teams, hate on division rivals. But as I moved into my 30s, I found my ability to hate/loathe other teams really diminished.

It's actually kind of nice to not hate the cross-conference other NY team. I can watch a Yankees game with my family and have a good time.

In comment 12401826 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:

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is incredible and singlehandedly is going to give you a chance in any series in the post-season. But you'll need that hitting to atleast be "mediocre" instead of "awful" if you want to win it all. Yanks: #2 in OPS+ Mets: #30 in OPS+ (aka dead last) Mets: #2 in ERA+ Yanks: #17 in ERA+ I love the Yanks but because of how much we're relying on an old A-Rod/Teix duo, I'm not even thinking about the World Series until we get to the end of September and both of them are healthy.

I think there's a much better shot at decent enough run production now (post-deadline)

We actually have MLB players on the bench now and can play matchups a bit. The lineup is a lot better than it was 10 days ago. Not saying the Mets are an offensive juggernaut now but I bet they'll be somewhere in the middle of the pack from now through September.

Will it be enough? No idea. You won't hear me say anything about the World Series unless it happens. I just want to see the Mets back in the postseason. I'll take my chances there and see what happens.

It's the rotation - can they get some innings from Eovaldi? Is Severino ready? Will Tanaka start pitching like he did last year? Can they get enough length from the rotation to avoid burning out the pen?

It would also be nice if the $150 million man stepped up and started hitting again. He's posted a robust .212/.255/.376 in the past month.

In comment 12401826 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:

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is incredible and singlehandedly is going to give you a chance in any series in the post-season. But you'll need that hitting to atleast be "mediocre" instead of "awful" if you want to win it all. Yanks: #2 in OPS+ Mets: #30 in OPS+ (aka dead last) Mets: #2 in ERA+ Yanks: #17 in ERA+ I love the Yanks but because of how much we're relying on an old A-Rod/Teix duo, I'm not even thinking about the World Series until we get to the end of September and both of them are healthy.

The Mets offense has been horrible this season but despite that and because of their pitching they are still right in it.

Now since they have added some needed bats and getting some back from injuries their offense should be a lot better than their season stats would indicate.

Does it mean that they make the playoffs, no but they certainly have a solid chance if the offense continues to come together and produces from here on out.

In comment 12401828 arcarsenal said:

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But hey, if you want to be grumpy go on ahead :)

I mean, this is Greg we're talking about.

In comment 12401826 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:

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is incredible and singlehandedly is going to give you a chance in any series in the post-season. But you'll need that hitting to atleast be "mediocre" instead of "awful" if you want to win it all. Yanks: #2 in OPS+ Mets: #30 in OPS+ (aka dead last) Mets: #2 in ERA+ Yanks: #17 in ERA+ I love the Yanks but because of how much we're relying on an old A-Rod/Teix duo, I'm not even thinking about the World Series until we get to the end of September and both of them are healthy.

Mets are dead last in OPS+ ... and in 1st place in August.

And essentially adding 3 middle of the order bats who have given us 131 ABs so far. An optimist would say Wright 850 OPS replaces Campbell 572 OPS; TDA 800 OPS replaces Plawecki 596 OPS; Cespedes 830 OPS replaces Lagares 614 OPS. Add in Johnson 108 OPS+ in 2015 and Uribe who has been a stead 115 OPS+ guy 2013-2015 except for the first month of 2015 replacing bench ABs from Mayberry (50 OPS+; cut), Herrera (90), and Nieuwenhus (84).

It's just a whole new lineup, especially if Wright is ok. April-July stats will be irrelevant.

On July 23rd, less than 2 weeks ago, this was the lineup the Mets fielded:

Granderson, RF
Tejada, SS
Flores, 2B
Mayberry, LF
Campbell, 3B
Duda, 1B
Lagares, CF
Recker, C
Colon, P

Last night, this was their lineup..

Granderson, RF
Murphy, 3B
Cespedes, CF
Duda, 1B
Flores, SS
Johnson, 2B
d'Arnaud, C
Conforto, LF
Colon, P

Quite a difference. Even if it's not murderers row.

In comment 12401131 Greg from LI said:

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Their first inkling of success in almost a decade and they're penciling themselves into the Series.

Very mch like Islander "fans" except the Mets actually have a legitimate quorum of support.

In comment 12402137 hudson said:

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In comment 12401131 Greg from LI said: Quote: Their first inkling of success in almost a decade and they're penciling themselves into the Series. Very mch like Islander "fans" except the Mets actually have a legitimate quorum of support.

I haven't read where any Mets fan is penciling in they making the WS.

The lineup has undergone a significant overhaul. At seasons end tallying the Mets production over the final two months should give a fair approximation of the teams offensive capacity.

If pushed for an answer, I don't think either team is going to the WS. But the idea of this thread is funny, and not surprising.

In comment 12402981 Dave in Hoboken said:

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If pushed for an answer, I don't think either team is going to the WS. But the idea of this thread is funny, and not surprising.

The Mets predictions this offseason won't be anymore surprising than .850 ball until 2022.