Meanwhile, you told us there would be "no way" Wilpon would let Wright play for Mets again. That the Mets would get a "board of directors" of doctors to prevent him from stepping on the field again. Well guess what? He's doing baseball related activities, and if the insurance payments haven't stopped yet (based on his level of activities), they will real soon.
think Cuddyer is still going to play more than most of us would like. I'm not saying if he absolutely sucks they don't pull the plug but I think assuming he comes back "healthy" he's going to be starting a few times per week.
The DL stints don't seem to slow him down. He comes back and within a couple of days starts raking all over again. If this guy can stay healthy he's a major weapon. If.
The DL stints don't seem to slow him down. He comes back and within a couple of days starts raking all over again. If this guy can stay healthy he's a major weapon. If.
If he can stay healthy he is going to be a star.
He can hit, he calls a good game, he appears to be a natural leader, and he is very well spoken.
No. 9/1 rosters expand but playoff roster is 25 players. Players need to either be on the DL or on the big league roster before 9/1 to be playoff eligible.
he's mentioned it too often, but are we so sure that the clause in his contract can't be waived? This is NOT like the Red Sox with A-Rod, the MLBPA objected because A-Rod would have ended up with slightly less money. In this case, having his host team in on the bidding only helps Cespedes, and by extension, the MLBPA. And once Cespedes contract expires, how would the clause even be enforceable?
Not that it matters anyway, I can't see the Wilpons opening the purse strings to that extent.
hate to dump on an injured player but Lagares sucks ball right now. He and Tejada are black holes.
It has to be injuries with Lagares because the drop off from last season is astonishing.
Rubin had a real nice July. I'm curious to see if he can put together two nice months in a row.
Ruben Tejada "real nice July" still gave him a .646 OPS since July 1st (last 28 games). Last 8 games he's been especially bad 160/192/200. All that's changed is his BABIP was inflated and now it's coming back down to earth.
RE: I find it highly unlikely that Cespedes gives up FA,
he's mentioned it too often, but are we so sure that the clause in his contract can't be waived? This is NOT like the Red Sox with A-Rod, the MLBPA objected because A-Rod would have ended up with slightly less money. In this case, having his host team in on the bidding only helps Cespedes, and by extension, the MLBPA. And once Cespedes contract expires, how would the clause even be enforceable?
Not that it matters anyway, I can't see the Wilpons opening the purse strings to that extent.
It can't be. It's that very clause that makes him a FA. Otherwise he doesn't have the service time. His "release" and the Mets relinquishing their rights to him are what allow him to talk to other teams and why the Mets can't talk to him again until Mid-May. If he waives it he's not eligible to be a FA.
RE: I find it highly unlikely that Cespedes gives up FA,
Not that it matters anyway, I can't see the Wilpons opening the purse strings to that extent.
A lot probably depends on how well the Mets do this season.
If they fail to make the playoff's I doubt the offer him what it would take to stay.
If they make the playoffs but lose the first series probably will offer him something close but not enough unless he falls in love with NY and wants to be part of this teams bright future and chooses to take less.
If they could somehow manage to actually make it the WS but lost I say the odds are 50/50
If they miraculously win the WS I think they would throw enough money at him to ensure he signs.
YC will just have to make a decision on whether he wants to be here on an ascendent team or not. We're not going to offer him $23x8years. He may get that elsehwere, but few teams present him with a better chance to win over the next 5 or so years. With all the FA OFs, what if the money is there for him, but he'll have to be a Philly or Padre?
I'd be wary of taking on too many years on anyone. I agree with the premise that you assume that the deal goes south at the end. Well years 5, 6, 7, 8 are when we're really going to have to pay for guys like Harvey (frankly, I assume he leaves), deGrom, Thor, Wheeler, and Matz. And hopefully Conforto and Flores.
usually never works (and less likely to work with a guy who is "older" and got underpaid on his first deal) but I'd love to see the Mets offer him a MONSTER AAV at lower years. 4 years 100 million or something. Even then I bet he says no because odds are in 4 years he's unlikely to be worth significantly "more than" the 40-50 additional he can get guaranteed right now.
the Mets are suddenly thin in minor league pitching I'd like to see them get more aggressive on the IFA market (not necessarily this guy) who seemingly will cost beyond his worth with no limits but they have basically ignored IFA pitchers yet cleared out Mazzoni, Wieck, Fulmer, Meisner, Cessa, Whalen and Gant since the season began and "lost" Bowman and Ynoa to very disappointing seasons and Tapia (a reliever), Leathersich (a reliever) and Taylor to TJ
So players get 60% of only the first 3 games, and then I assume they're stiffed. That means that in a 4 game series, the players get 180% of 1 game of ticket receipts (3x60%) while the owners get 220% (3x40%+100%); a 7 game series nets the owners way more -- 520%. This doesnt say anything about concessions, parking etc, which I assume the players dont touch.
Lets start guessing. Assume if the players get $63 million, owners get double that (assuming 5-6 game series) = $125 million. 15 series * 5.5 games/series (guess) * 42,000 fans * $15/fan spent on food/parking/stuff (conservative guess) = $62 million in revenue. So 125+63 = $188 million in revenue divided by 30 (15 series, 2 games per series) = total guess but teams generate at least $6.2 million in revenue per team per round, net of payments to MLB and players. This is probably very conservative -- so say it is 6-10 million. One round isnt a franchise changer. Playing in a world series is a big deal.
Plus remember they own like 65% of SNY which will get more viewers; not clear how far in advance they do the ad sales, but it is relevant for next year too. And of course they'll sell a lot more tickets by contending and not sucking.
MLB.com's Mets top 10 pitching prospects is now very ugly lol
should be focused on replenishing the arms in low ball. Ideally paired with a college CF or two who will sign below bonus. We could use a CF prospect high up in the system other than Nimmo.
What's the latest with Molina? I believed he was evaluated in May for TJ, but I've heard nothing since. Wouldn't a determination be made by now after 3 months?
What's the latest with Molina? I believed he was evaluated in May for TJ, but I've heard nothing since. Wouldn't a determination be made by now after 3 months?
Adam Rubin last reported "nothing new". Shecky who seemingly has someone on the inside said something similar a few months ago. He last pitched 5/13, the feeling was he wouldn't be back until 2017 regardless of when they did the surgery so they would hold off. At this point it's a lost season, until we hear otherwise likely TJ.
...and we discount his 'paternity' start he's been so much better than expected. Niese has given us all reason to be confident we have a good chance to get a 'W' when he takes the ball. Who would have predicted that 2 months ago?
Interesting... just thought it was a long wait. Maybe Molina avoids
But I think the fact that they were able to keep Wheeler is huge. Now they have another starter coming back around the All Star break in case. And maybe Montero sooner.
Colon's innings have to be replaced somehow next year.
...and we discount his 'paternity' start he's been so much better than expected. Niese has given us all reason to be confident we have a good chance to get a 'W' when he takes the ball. Who would have predicted that 2 months ago?
He is pitching very well. Plus you have the added benefit of his being a lefty. I wonder if they have considered starting him in-between two hard throwing righties like deGrom and Noah. Seems like if would benefit both he and whichever righty was pitching after him.
Colon's innings should be replaced by Matz. Niese is 5th starter until all-star break, and then Wheeler comes back and Montero will be in the mix.
that's 7 starters (in no particular order).
Harvey
deGrom
Thor
Matz
Niese
Wheeler
Montero
Not sure what happens with Gee, I don't expect him to get a QO if he's a FA, if he's just arb eligible not sure how that works if he finishes in the minors. he'd be nice insurance as the 7th/8th starter depending on if before or after Wheeler's return.
Figure 8 or 9 starters deep is what they need to be.
RE: You could do alot worse than Jon Niese as your 5th starter.
But I think the fact that they were able to keep Wheeler is huge. Now they have another starter coming back around the All Star break in case. And maybe Montero sooner.
Colon's innings have to be replaced somehow next year.
I don't see why Colon's innings have to be replaced? Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard will have no innings limit. Matz, Niese, and Wheeler for the final two spots? Plenty of innings to go around.
RE: You could do alot worse than Jon Niese as your 5th starter.
But I think the fact that they were able to keep Wheeler is huge. Now they have another starter coming back around the All Star break in case. And maybe Montero sooner.
Colon's innings have to be replaced somehow next year.
Keeping all three didn't seem possible to me, but I'm glad they did it.
Now, the question is what happens next year. If they don't shell out some money to keep some offensive pieces, they'll have to deal for bats again.
I'm not too worried about Wheeler's weight. Lincecum won 2 CY's with that tiny frame. Chris Sale is a stick and is a K-machine. Doesn't seem to matter too much.
I still believe in him. If his arm is ok, long term it doesnt make a lot of sense to have Matz or Wheeler as the #5 starter (though my guess is we'll almost always have one of the big 5 arms on the DL -- nature of the game). A healthy, effective Wheeler dealt in 2016 or 2017 could bring back a good bat or restock the system with arms.
is absolutely NO CHANCE Dillon Gee is a Met next year. None. They aren't paying Dillon Gee roughly 6 million to be an extra starter. He and Parnell are goners. I guess Parnell could be so bad that he comes back on a minor league deal but they are gone. Colon is gone, Murphy more likely than not gone, Tejada likely gone, Uribe and Johnson likely gone due to price, Clippard gone
wright at third and U.S. Transitioning to Cheech and Herrera in the middle. That will allow us to spend on somebody like Cespedes without issue.
30 million alone is coming off the books from Colon, Parnell, Gee, and Murphy. Very possible even more if we trade Niese in June to clear a spot for Wheeler.
I'm not too worried about Wheeler's weight. Lincecum won 2 CY's with that tiny frame. Chris Sale is a stick and is a K-machine. Doesn't seem to matter too much.
Yeah. I'm actually more worried about deGroms. Looks like a feather could knock him over. Hopefully they are fine.
RE: RE: I find it highly unlikely that Cespedes gives up FA,
It can't be. It's that very clause that makes him a FA. Otherwise he doesn't have the service time. His "release" and the Mets relinquishing their rights to him are what allow him to talk to other teams and why the Mets can't talk to him again until Mid-May. If he waives it he's not eligible to be a FA.
is absolutely NO CHANCE Dillon Gee is a Met next year. None. They aren't paying Dillon Gee roughly 6 million to be an extra starter. He and Parnell are goners. I guess Parnell could be so bad that he comes back on a minor league deal but they are gone. Colon is gone, Murphy more likely than not gone, Tejada likely gone, Uribe and Johnson likely gone due to price, Clippard gone
Tejada is interesting -- may need to arb him for 1 year to bridge the gap. Who plays SS next year if he's gone? Too early for Cecc to start the season in Queens. I think Herrera breaks camp as the 2B and that Flores will roam all over -- picking up 400-600 ABs in a Zobrist type role (3B for 4 weeks when X is hurt, then 2B for 2 weeks when Y isnt hitting...). Maybe Flores holds down SS until Cecc comes up, but it's risky. They dont like Wilmer at SS.
I could see Johnson resigned if he doesnt need more than the $1.5 he makes this year.
is absolutely NO CHANCE Dillon Gee is a Met next year. None. They aren't paying Dillon Gee roughly 6 million to be an extra starter. He and Parnell are goners. I guess Parnell could be so bad that he comes back on a minor league deal but they are gone. Colon is gone, Murphy more likely than not gone, Tejada likely gone, Uribe and Johnson likely gone due to price, Clippard gone
Tejada is interesting -- may need to arb him for 1 year to bridge the gap. Who plays SS next year if he's gone? Too early for Cecc to start the season in Queens. I think Herrera breaks camp as the 2B and that Flores will roam all over -- picking up 400-600 ABs in a Zobrist type role (3B for 4 weeks when X is hurt, then 2B for 2 weeks when Y isnt hitting...). Maybe Flores holds down SS until Cecc comes up, but it's risky. They dont like Wilmer at SS.
I could see Johnson resigned if he doesnt need more than the $1.5 he makes this year.
Tejada at 3ish million seems steep to me but that's possible (sad) but possible. Uribe most certainly finds guaranteed playing time somewhere so unless the Mets give him 2b (really unlikely with Flores and Herrera here) OR Wright shockingly retires it's hard to see him coming back. It would be disappointing but I'm personally expecting Zobrist to replace Cespedes.
and 3 million makes me want to vomit. But I feel like we're going to need someone who can credibly play SS in case the other untested options fall through. And I doubt we'll get a significant savings on a UFA SS. Maybe we can find a PEDs/injury guy who will take a 1 year deal.
finishes really strong I could see Tejada brought back just as a place holder for a couple months and then he'd return to his backup middle infield position for the rest of the year.
dollar salar, and find a cheaper arm to bridge until Wheeler is ready. Or maybe go Montero/Verrett in the 5th spot. With an extra 9 million off the books, resign Cespedes or sign Upton.
I assume this was radar?
Meanwhile, you told us there would be "no way" Wilpon would let Wright play for Mets again. That the Mets would get a "board of directors" of doctors to prevent him from stepping on the field again. Well guess what? He's doing baseball related activities, and if the insurance payments haven't stopped yet (based on his level of activities), they will real soon.
Good call!
LOL...
Quote:
In comment 12401308 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Cespedes has a lower OPS than Parra. Worse player. Mets fucked up their asset management.
Think Parra playing in the Miller BandBox vs. Cespedes in cavernous Comerica could have something to do with that?
I wasn't being serious. Cespedes is a superior player.
Sorry arc.
Quote:
Cespedes has a lower OPS than Parra. Worse player. Mets fucked up their asset management.
I assume this was radar?
Need you ask? LOL, of course it was that nitwit...
If he can stay healthy he is going to be a star.
He can hit, he calls a good game, he appears to be a natural leader, and he is very well spoken.
No. 9/1 rosters expand but playoff roster is 25 players. Players need to either be on the DL or on the big league roster before 9/1 to be playoff eligible.
It has to be injuries with Lagares because the drop off from last season is astonishing.
Rubin had a real nice July. I'm curious to see if he can put together two nice months in a row.
Not that it matters anyway, I can't see the Wilpons opening the purse strings to that extent.
Quote:
hate to dump on an injured player but Lagares sucks ball right now. He and Tejada are black holes.
It has to be injuries with Lagares because the drop off from last season is astonishing.
Rubin had a real nice July. I'm curious to see if he can put together two nice months in a row.
Ruben Tejada "real nice July" still gave him a .646 OPS since July 1st (last 28 games). Last 8 games he's been especially bad 160/192/200. All that's changed is his BABIP was inflated and now it's coming back down to earth.
Not that it matters anyway, I can't see the Wilpons opening the purse strings to that extent.
It can't be. It's that very clause that makes him a FA. Otherwise he doesn't have the service time. His "release" and the Mets relinquishing their rights to him are what allow him to talk to other teams and why the Mets can't talk to him again until Mid-May. If he waives it he's not eligible to be a FA.
Not that it matters anyway, I can't see the Wilpons opening the purse strings to that extent.
A lot probably depends on how well the Mets do this season.
If they fail to make the playoff's I doubt the offer him what it would take to stay.
If they make the playoffs but lose the first series probably will offer him something close but not enough unless he falls in love with NY and wants to be part of this teams bright future and chooses to take less.
If they could somehow manage to actually make it the WS but lost I say the odds are 50/50
If they miraculously win the WS I think they would throw enough money at him to ensure he signs.
Link - ( New Window )
I'd be wary of taking on too many years on anyone. I agree with the premise that you assume that the deal goes south at the end. Well years 5, 6, 7, 8 are when we're really going to have to pay for guys like Harvey (frankly, I assume he leaves), deGrom, Thor, Wheeler, and Matz. And hopefully Conforto and Flores.
Link - ( New Window )
So players get 60% of only the first 3 games, and then I assume they're stiffed. That means that in a 4 game series, the players get 180% of 1 game of ticket receipts (3x60%) while the owners get 220% (3x40%+100%); a 7 game series nets the owners way more -- 520%. This doesnt say anything about concessions, parking etc, which I assume the players dont touch.
Lets start guessing. Assume if the players get $63 million, owners get double that (assuming 5-6 game series) = $125 million. 15 series * 5.5 games/series (guess) * 42,000 fans * $15/fan spent on food/parking/stuff (conservative guess) = $62 million in revenue. So 125+63 = $188 million in revenue divided by 30 (15 series, 2 games per series) = total guess but teams generate at least $6.2 million in revenue per team per round, net of payments to MLB and players. This is probably very conservative -- so say it is 6-10 million. One round isnt a franchise changer. Playing in a world series is a big deal.
Plus remember they own like 65% of SNY which will get more viewers; not clear how far in advance they do the ad sales, but it is relevant for next year too. And of course they'll sell a lot more tickets by contending and not sucking.
2. Ynoa (horrid season)
3. Akeel Morris
4. Dario Alvarez
5. Robert Gsellman
6. Thomas Szapucki
7. Matt Bowman (terrible season)
8. Blake Taylor (out until 2017, TJ)
9. Matthew Koch
10. Seth Lugo
Adam Rubin last reported "nothing new". Shecky who seemingly has someone on the inside said something similar a few months ago. He last pitched 5/13, the feeling was he wouldn't be back until 2017 regardless of when they did the surgery so they would hold off. At this point it's a lost season, until we hear otherwise likely TJ.
Colon's innings have to be replaced somehow next year.
He is pitching very well. Plus you have the added benefit of his being a lefty. I wonder if they have considered starting him in-between two hard throwing righties like deGrom and Noah. Seems like if would benefit both he and whichever righty was pitching after him.
Maybe he can train with Colon.
he looked way too skinny last year.
Colon's innings should be replaced by Matz. Niese is 5th starter until all-star break, and then Wheeler comes back and Montero will be in the mix.
that's 7 starters (in no particular order).
Harvey
deGrom
Thor
Matz
Niese
Wheeler
Montero
Not sure what happens with Gee, I don't expect him to get a QO if he's a FA, if he's just arb eligible not sure how that works if he finishes in the minors. he'd be nice insurance as the 7th/8th starter depending on if before or after Wheeler's return.
Figure 8 or 9 starters deep is what they need to be.
Colon's innings have to be replaced somehow next year.
I don't see why Colon's innings have to be replaced? Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard will have no innings limit. Matz, Niese, and Wheeler for the final two spots? Plenty of innings to go around.
Colon's innings have to be replaced somehow next year.
Keeping all three didn't seem possible to me, but I'm glad they did it.
Now, the question is what happens next year. If they don't shell out some money to keep some offensive pieces, they'll have to deal for bats again.
30 million alone is coming off the books from Colon, Parnell, Gee, and Murphy. Very possible even more if we trade Niese in June to clear a spot for Wheeler.
Yeah. I'm actually more worried about deGroms. Looks like a feather could knock him over. Hopefully they are fine.
It can't be. It's that very clause that makes him a FA. Otherwise he doesn't have the service time. His "release" and the Mets relinquishing their rights to him are what allow him to talk to other teams and why the Mets can't talk to him again until Mid-May. If he waives it he's not eligible to be a FA.
Thanks Dan, that explains it.
Parnell more likely than not is a goner
Murphy more likely than not is a goner
Clippard more likely than not is a goner
Tejada more likely than not is a goner
Uribe and Johnson likely get multi-year/or more expensive than the Mets will pay bench player deals
Cespedes we shall see what happens
Tejada is interesting -- may need to arb him for 1 year to bridge the gap. Who plays SS next year if he's gone? Too early for Cecc to start the season in Queens. I think Herrera breaks camp as the 2B and that Flores will roam all over -- picking up 400-600 ABs in a Zobrist type role (3B for 4 weeks when X is hurt, then 2B for 2 weeks when Y isnt hitting...). Maybe Flores holds down SS until Cecc comes up, but it's risky. They dont like Wilmer at SS.
I could see Johnson resigned if he doesnt need more than the $1.5 he makes this year.
Quote:
is absolutely NO CHANCE Dillon Gee is a Met next year. None. They aren't paying Dillon Gee roughly 6 million to be an extra starter. He and Parnell are goners. I guess Parnell could be so bad that he comes back on a minor league deal but they are gone. Colon is gone, Murphy more likely than not gone, Tejada likely gone, Uribe and Johnson likely gone due to price, Clippard gone
Tejada is interesting -- may need to arb him for 1 year to bridge the gap. Who plays SS next year if he's gone? Too early for Cecc to start the season in Queens. I think Herrera breaks camp as the 2B and that Flores will roam all over -- picking up 400-600 ABs in a Zobrist type role (3B for 4 weeks when X is hurt, then 2B for 2 weeks when Y isnt hitting...). Maybe Flores holds down SS until Cecc comes up, but it's risky. They dont like Wilmer at SS.
I could see Johnson resigned if he doesnt need more than the $1.5 he makes this year.
Tejada at 3ish million seems steep to me but that's possible (sad) but possible. Uribe most certainly finds guaranteed playing time somewhere so unless the Mets give him 2b (really unlikely with Flores and Herrera here) OR Wright shockingly retires it's hard to see him coming back. It would be disappointing but I'm personally expecting Zobrist to replace Cespedes.