So one of my leagues we just did draft order. 12 teams, PPR. I got 4th pick. I have a few weeks to game plan.
My early thinking is that if Antonio Brown is there at 4 in a PPR format, I'd be hard pressed not to take him.
I figure Le'Veon and Charles are gone in the first 3 picks. Not sure who the 3rd pick would be. It kind of gets murky with guys like Lynch, Murray, Hill, Peterson, Forte, etc.
Obviously a high quality RB is going to be there for me at 4 but I feel like Brown in a PPR format is just too much of a monster to pass up on. On the flip side, my real worry is what is going to be left of that RB pool when it snakes back to me like 13 picks later. I would think at that point I'd be left with Justin Forsett, Melvin Gordon (who I love this year, BTW..), etc.. and I really don't know how I feel about one of those guys as my RB1.
Do I go with AB if he's there or do I make sure I lock up a top tier RB and then hope someone like Jordy is there for my 2nd pick? Tough call.
I don't think I can pass on Brown if he's there @ 4.. but man, I feel like the RB pool when it comes back could be pretty depleted. I just always worry about getting stuck with a meh RB1 and a pure time share RB2.
There are so many philosophies with draft strategy but I like picking the players/positions that aren't as injury prone. And if its a PPR, taking a healthy, proven WR is more valuable than a flier on AP hoping he A stays healthy and B doesn't miss a beat.
Only good thing is I have picks 26 and 27 in the 3rd round from a trade last year. My thinking is to take AP/Leveon/Charles at 3. At 22 take the best WR available and 26/27 take Gordon and another WR.
Thoughts?
Snake draft. Pick 1 and you pick 28th. I picked 11th last year. I am thinking of going top 3 to guarantee that big time RB and have my next pick at 26. Am I crazy for not taking the first slot?
What would you do?
Doesn't he have a streak of like 30+ games with at least 5/50?
I completely punted RBs last year and won 2 of 4 leagues, and still made the playoffs in the other two. This year is even more slanted towards WRs early, as arguments could be made against almost all of the top RBs. There are great values in rounds 3-5 for RBs:
Gore
Miller
Gordon
Ellington
Abdullah
J.Stew
I did a mock last night and went:
Anonio Brown 1.02
T.Y Hilton 2.13
Frank Gore 3.02
Greg Olsen 4.13
Ameer Abdullah 5.02
I'll take that start every time.
Between the pounding RBs have taken and the more and more 2 back teams, playmaking WRs have become much more productive than your top RBs.
I got keepers to decide on:
Peyton Manning, Den QB Draft - 2nd
Justin Forsett, Bal RB - Waiver - 7th
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR Waiver - 7th
Tyler Eifert, Cin TE - 15th
Brandin Cooks, NO WR - 9th
obviously OBJ is one. I'm thinking it's clearly between Forsett and Cooks and I'm honestly not sure which one. My head leans toward forsett but I know Cooks should be the man down in NOLA. Eifert is intriguing to try in round 15 but the guy has proven literally nothing yet.
Between the pounding RBs have taken and the more and more 2 back teams, playmaking WRs have become much more productive than your top RBs.
I got keepers to decide on:
Peyton Manning, Den QB Draft - 2nd
Justin Forsett, Bal RB - Waiver - 7th
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR Waiver - 7th
Tyler Eifert, Cin TE - 15th
Brandin Cooks, NO WR - 9th
obviously OBJ is one. I'm thinking it's clearly between Forsett and Cooks and I'm honestly not sure which one. My head leans toward forsett but I know Cooks should be the man down in NOLA. Eifert is intriguing to try in round 15 but the guy has proven literally nothing yet.
Both Cooks and Forsett are good values there. I'd try to guess who everyone else in the league is going to keep and keep whichever position will be more scarce.
Also had Lamar Miller who wound up lead dog by default after Moreno went down Week 1 and I hung onto Jeremy Hill all year who took over in CIN at the perfect time. My team was absolutely stacked by November/December.
Would you trade 11th overall and 83rd overall (7th round) for 1st overall?
Picking 1st and 14th could get me a core of
Luck
Charles/Leveon at 1
Dez/Julio/Calvin at 14
Cooks
I'm finding that hard to turn down.
Would you trade 11th overall and 83rd overall (7th round) for 1st overall?
Picking 1st and 14th could get me a core of
Luck
Charles/Leveon at 1
Dez/Julio/Calvin at 14
Cooks
I'm finding that hard to turn down.
Is that a non-PPR? Even so, I'd be stunned if any of those WRs are there at 14. Maybe Calvin, but the other 2 will be gone.
I kind of agree. We do start 3 WR and a Flex and it's PPR so WR's are going to be where the real money is.
I have no way of knowing but I have to think Bell and Charles are 2 of the first 3 picks. If the guy with the 3rd pick snakes Brown from me would it be insane to take Beckham 4th? I can't tell if it would be a major homer pick or if I could justify it. I can't see any way he doesn't have an absolutely insane year if he stays on the field.
Quote:
Cooks in the 8th and Luck in the 5th.
Would you trade 11th overall and 83rd overall (7th round) for 1st overall?
Picking 1st and 14th could get me a core of
Luck
Charles/Leveon at 1
Dez/Julio/Calvin at 14
Cooks
I'm finding that hard to turn down.
Is that a non-PPR? Even so, I'd be stunned if any of those WRs are there at 14. Maybe Calvin, but the other 2 will be gone.
.5 ppr. I know the guys in this league like RBs. I'm imagining the top 13 picks go something like this in any given order:
Bell
Lacy
Charles
Lynch
Brown
AP
Rodgers (6 pt passing TD)
Demarco
McCoy
Foster
Demaryius
Dez
That leaves Calvin/Julio at 13 or 14
I have him as a top 10 fantasy player but none of you seem to agree. Am I off my rocker?
I have him as a top 10 fantasy player but none of you seem to agree. Am I off my rocker?
I love CJ Anderson and Forsett this year, have them at 6/7 on my rankings. Am hoping to snag at least one of them in the 2nd/early 3rd.
Luck
Brown
Cooks
Whatever RB falls to 14
Is it worth it to give up a 7th to do that though
I have him as a top 10 fantasy player but none of you seem to agree. Am I off my rocker?
I saw CJ anderson ranked at 8 on the top 300. I think that's a little higher than where I would take him, but he is going to be a big time fantasy player this year
Identify a couple of targets and decide where you'd realistically be able to get them and go from there.
Luck
Brown
Cooks
Whatever RB falls to 14
Is it worth it to give up a 7th to do that though
It's close... would you trade Julio Jones and say Isaiah Crowell for Brown? If yes, then do it.
And yeah, your likely to have some good options at RB at 14. My point was just that you shouldn't count on any scenario happening and you should be prepared to go in a different direction if those WRs aren't there.
Identify a couple of targets and decide where you'd realistically be able to get them and go from there.
Thanks, Arc.
The first 3 picks IMO should be Brown, Luck, Rodgers. I do not trust any RBs anymore, especially ones serving suspensions or coming off injuries.
I think Brown, Jones, Bryant, OBJ have separated themselves from the Thomas, Megatron, Nelson, Greens of the world.
I am all in with Brandin Cooks this year. 100 receptions would not surprise me the littlest.
RBs like Hill and Anderson will be drafted in the 2nd round, and may end up being the 2 best back in football this year. Crazy prediction... Hill has 15 TDs this year.
I am all in on the rookie RBs this year. Gordon, Gurley, Coleman, Abdullah, Cobb, David Johnson will all be starting by mid year. Hence why I am not taking Rbs with a top 3 pick.
Murray/Gore will disappoint.
Sammy Watkins has a much bigger year than anyone predicts.
Eli will be a top 5 fantasy QB this year. Peyton will not be.
If I dont get Luck/Rodgers early... Ill wait a few round for Eli, Ben, or Ryan. I want no part of Wilson, Rivers, Cam as my Qb.
Davonte Adams will break out this year. Cobb surpasses Jordy as well in GB.
Breakout player not mention so far who will put up top 10 points at his position.... Carlos Hyde.
The first 3 picks IMO should be Brown, Luck, Rodgers. I do not trust any RBs anymore, especially ones serving suspensions or coming off injuries.
I think Brown, Jones, Bryant, OBJ have separated themselves from the Thomas, Megatron, Nelson, Greens of the world.
I am all in with Brandin Cooks this year. 100 receptions would not surprise me the littlest.
RBs like Hill and Anderson will be drafted in the 2nd round, and may end up being the 2 best back in football this year. Crazy prediction... Hill has 15 TDs this year.
I am all in on the rookie RBs this year. Gordon, Gurley, Coleman, Abdullah, Cobb, David Johnson will all be starting by mid year. Hence why I am not taking Rbs with a top 3 pick.
Murray/Gore will disappoint.
Sammy Watkins has a much bigger year than anyone predicts.
Eli will be a top 5 fantasy QB this year. Peyton will not be.
If I dont get Luck/Rodgers early... Ill wait a few round for Eli, Ben, or Ryan. I want no part of Wilson, Rivers, Cam as my Qb.
Davonte Adams will break out this year. Cobb surpasses Jordy as well in GB.
Breakout player not mention so far who will put up top 10 points at his position.... Carlos Hyde.
Cobb will not surpass Jordy. Only chance that will happen is if Jordy isn't recovered from hip surgery.
I can't comment too much since my coworker/fantasy competitor also frequents BBI and reads these threads. The only thing I can say is...fuck Carlos Hyde. I am not touching him at his ADP unless he falls to the 5th / 6th round. Hard to trust any 49ers after what happened last year and the fact they have to face the Hawks / Cardinals 4 times a year
Darren McFadden
and Jimmy Graham?
Darren McFadden
and Jimmy Graham?
Brown has good upside. Wouldn't touch McFadden. Graham should have a big year. I think they'll utilize him quite a bit in their passing game.
We expanded to a 12-team league and they voted to start from scratch, trashed our keepers, upped the league entry fee, and re-drew draft order.
I now pick 11th out of 12 and have no keepers?
this is a league of all friends, so there was no animosity but everyone voted and the majority won. there was no fair way to really expand to a keeper league without screwing the new teams a little, but I said that should be expected.
I was overruled.
You mean UNTIL he gets injured. I'd be shocked if he went a full season.
he's already injured
With Carson Palmer back I like David Johnson there and John Brown (late) too. without Carson Palmer I'm not a huge fan of either.
He's already having hamstring issues and camp literally JUST started. If you told me he'd play 12+ games this year I'd take a gamble. I just can't trust him to stay on the field.
I think John Brown is poised for a breakout year, Palmer is returning and he has done well in Bruce Arians Offense.
We expanded to a 12-team league and they voted to start from scratch, trashed our keepers, upped the league entry fee, and re-drew draft order.
I now pick 11th out of 12 and have no keepers?
this is a league of all friends, so there was no animosity but everyone voted and the majority won. there was no fair way to really expand to a keeper league without screwing the new teams a little, but I said that should be expected.
I was overruled.
IS there any way to do it differently? You could use a format similar to NFL expansion. Each current team selects their keepers (Protect the players). Then, the new guys can select keepers and their associated rounds from any of the remaining players on the current teams. They may get screwed a little, but next year all will be fair.
I'd be disappointed too, if I were you.
Quote:
we were a 10-team keeper league. my keepers were Beckham for an 8th round pick and Julio Jones for a 4th and I had the 2nd pick in the draft.
We expanded to a 12-team league and they voted to start from scratch, trashed our keepers, upped the league entry fee, and re-drew draft order.
I now pick 11th out of 12 and have no keepers?
this is a league of all friends, so there was no animosity but everyone voted and the majority won. there was no fair way to really expand to a keeper league without screwing the new teams a little, but I said that should be expected.
I was overruled.
IS there any way to do it differently? You could use a format similar to NFL expansion. Each current team selects their keepers (Protect the players). Then, the new guys can select keepers and their associated rounds from any of the remaining players on the current teams. They may get screwed a little, but next year all will be fair.
I'd be disappointed too, if I were you.
that's exactly what I proposed, just on my roster I had Sammy Watkins for a 9th round pick, Kelvin Benjamin for a 10th, Brandin Cooks for a 7th.
those are not bad keepers in ppr at all.
Therein line is the value. He will get a lot of touches. The defense should be ok. They are going to run the ball more than any other team in the NFl, or are at least should. He will get points just based on opportunity. Bush will get hurt, and they wont rely on Kap's arm. It wouldnt shock me if he got 1100-1200 yards and close to 10 TDs.
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I don't think Carlos Hyde will be anywhere near the top 10. The o-line got gutted in the offseason and that team is going to stink.
Therein line is the value. He will get a lot of touches. The defense should be ok. They are going to run the ball more than any other team in the NFl, or are at least should. He will get points just based on opportunity. Bush will get hurt, and they wont rely on Kap's arm. It wouldnt shock me if he got 1100-1200 yards and close to 10 TDs.
Their defense is the biggest question mark imo. Nearly half of their starting defensive players retired.
Quote:
I don't think Carlos Hyde will be anywhere near the top 10. The o-line got gutted in the offseason and that team is going to stink.
Therein line is the value. He will get a lot of touches. The defense should be ok. They are going to run the ball more than any other team in the NFl, or are at least should. He will get points just based on opportunity. Bush will get hurt, and they wont rely on Kap's arm. It wouldnt shock me if he got 1100-1200 yards and close to 10 TDs.
If they won't rely on Kap's arm, then teams are going to stack the box all day and Hyde won't get any room to run with those opportunities. Hyde's best chance for success is for Kap to become a weapon that other teams have to worry about. Otherwise, RBs on bad teams don't usually equate to top 10 fantasy production... especially ones that aren't going to catch a lot of passes.
i ahve the 7th pick and the only real 1st rounder i could see being kept is antonio Brown...
i ahve the 7th pick and the only real 1st rounder i could see being kept is antonio Brown...
No brainer. Bell is top 3 even with the two game suspension