NFT: HRC scenarios

I don't know what the fbi will conclude when they're done investigating this but nothing of consequence will happen to her.

Bernie Sanders gives her a pardon and she gets a job on Fox and Friends

involved in conspiracy to assist her election.

This is all her doing. It was stupid as hell to do what she did. It's a self inflicted wound. But I don't think it kills her chances. She's going to be, barring the unexpected, the nominee and I think she wins a close election over the Republican, be it Bush, Walker, Kasich, or whoever. Watching that debate Thursday, it only reinforced my view that the GOP is wildly out of step with the country. Kasich seems like the best out of the lot.

there won't be any ground for a discussion about here without each side digging in. She's been around the public spotlight long enough for people to know who she is and the 'benefit of the doubt' is just not possible. She's become a political icon, attacked from the right and coddled by the left.

the backup one at the Colorado company, they will find nothing other than what she turned over. They will not find the other 30,000 emails.

Think how crazy it is, she got a private company to wipe their own servers!

Are you a stalker?

The Clintons are some of the smartest people on earth. How they even got themselves into this mess is mind blowing. Ultimately I think she's still the nominee.

On the other side, the GOP sees red meat here but if they latch onto this and the eventual nominee is still riding this horse next year they are just as stupid. No one will except the talk radio mouth breathers will care about email scandal as a main talking point in the general.

FYI, John Kasich is surging in New Hampshire. If he gets the GOP nomination, HRC is cooked.

In comment 12413634 Ben in Tampa said:

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The Clintons are some of the smartest people on earth. How they even got themselves into this mess is mind blowing.

In pride our error lies.

that she turned over all "work" related emails. The next day the FBI comes and gets her server. That is not a conspiracy theory, that is simply she cleaned it well enough where she is secure in the fact that the best FBI technician won't get any of the work emails she deleted.

We already know for a fact she deleted 15 work emails with Blumenthal. This is a complete sham, but an individual who does not think she can play by any other rules other than her own.

We'll see what happens with Loretta Lynch.

BTW - Nixon was very bright as well, but his paranoia got the best of him. HRC shares some of that paranoia.

And the Blumenthal e-mails is one of a number interesting questions. One which I'm sure the Obama Administration is none too pleased about and might not provide protection for.

government, the emails were on government servers. And what were these secret emails? What was discussed that was so alarming?

Can't but help to think this is more distracting bullshit to not talk about stuff that matters. They did it with Clinton, Obama, etc. We hate to say "conspiracy" yet if more than one person has the idea to plot against something/someone, by definition it is.

I think people overplay the Clinton hatred to a degree that undermines valid points that can be brought up against her/them. We had people trying to string together the fact that Soros dumps some money into Black Lives Matters as a clear indicator that the three that stormed Bernie Sander's speech over the weekend were plants from the Clinton camp. That kind of insanity diminishes the clear points that could potentially get held up against her, but the constant beating of the drum makes things get droned out.

That said, this e-mail thing is not going away and while her national polling numbers are extremely strong (still polling like an incumbent nationally for the Democratic nod) - there are some concerns popping up (favorability polling is tanking, Bernie Sanders is attracting large crowds - albeit large crowds of young, white, liberal men in liberal strongholds, etc.).

Polling in Iowa and New Hampshire also looks to be getting tighter between Clinton and Sanders, which again can be contributed to demographics (ultra liberal, ultra white areas love them some Bernie), but Bernie Sanders has no business being talked about seriously as a presidential candidate. If the Democrats have to run him, its not going to be pretty.

National polling this early may be useless, but the primary polling has been quite accurate. Nate Silver and group still have this as a no-brainer for Clinton getting at least the Democratic nod, but I think whatever happens with Biden is going to be a pretty loud statement on how people with power view her. I don't think Biden will run unless he knows he has a shot to win so as to not damage the legacy he's strung together as a VP, so if he throws his hat in - I think there's smoke.

That may be a bit of a tinfoil hat approach to looking at this, but I don't think the Democrats can march out a "plug your nose" candidate once the Republicans clean up their mess.

I don't think it will unless there's indication that folks that shouldn't see top secret stuff saw top secret stuff.

In comment 12413728 BeerFridge said:

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I don't think it will unless there's indication that folks that shouldn't see top secret stuff saw top secret stuff.

I think the part where David Kendall is running around with it all (including the top secret stuff) is worrisome, but nobody else seems bothered.

depends on which side of the aisle you are on. To conservatives, this shows how sneaky and underhanded she is. Liberals are like "meh, free pass".

he could tell DOJ to go hard or lay off. It must gall the Clintons to have their fate in his hands. We all know that she isn't the successor that he would wish for. But is it Sanders? Or will this push Warren to get into the race. Or will Joe carry the torch for another 4 years?

In comment 12413743 fivehead said:

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depends on which side of the aisle you are on. To talk radio junkies, this shows how sneaky and underhanded she is. Liberals are like meh, not an issue that affects me

Fixed that for you. And for the vast majority: Don't Care.

In comment 12413746 buford said:

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he could tell DOJ to go hard or lay off. It must gall the Clintons to have their fate in his hands. We all know that she isn't the successor that he would wish for. But is it Sanders? Or will this push Warren to get into the race. Or will Joe carry the torch for another 4 years?

More than anything, he wants to win. Otherwise he risks seeing all his executive order stuff come undone.

His support, IMO, is dependent on two things. The main one is Biden's decision. The other one is whether or not they had a deal during his first campaign about her withdrawing or supporting him. There have been a couple stories that suggested this but I cannot vouch for their credibility.

In comment 12413743 fivehead said:

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depends on which side of the aisle you are on. To conservatives, this shows how sneaky and underhanded she is. Liberals are like "meh, free pass".

I'm not a "liberal", but I lean Democrat. I would think the same if it were a Republican. I try to ignore the bullshit.

In comment 12413757 Ben in Tampa said:

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In comment 12413743 fivehead said: Quote: depends on which side of the aisle you are on. To talk radio junkies, this shows how sneaky and underhanded she is. Liberals are like meh, not an issue that affects me Fixed that for you. And for the vast majority: Don't Care.

It still comes down to whether honesty is a virtue or at least where it fits on the priority list of virtues. Personally, I sort of agree with you to the extent that I don't think it is valued as much nowadays. Not sure it's milleniials or evolution or selfishness or weariness.

In comment 12413757 Ben in Tampa said:

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In comment 12413743 fivehead said: Quote: depends on which side of the aisle you are on. To talk radio junkies, this shows how sneaky and underhanded she is. Liberals are like meh, not an issue that affects me Fixed that for you. And for the vast majority: Don't Care.

I don't think that is true (based on how her numbers have fallen since this has come out). But it is sad that so many don't care.

As flawed or out of step as every Republican candidate except possibly Kasich appears to be, with an electorate including independents that has leaned further to the left on social issues, I doubt very much that this matters in the general election unless they find something clearly illegal.

And the Trump Circus has a real potential to damage the Republican presidential brand in a variety of ways that far outweigh the e-mails, ex demonstrable illegality.

putting stock in presidential poll numbers 15 months out from an election is foolish. Its fodder for 24/7 political media.

In comment 12413762 Bill L said:

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In comment 12413757 Ben in Tampa said: Quote: In comment 12413743 fivehead said: Quote: depends on which side of the aisle you are on. To talk radio junkies, this shows how sneaky and underhanded she is. Liberals are like meh, not an issue that affects me Fixed that for you. And for the vast majority: Don't Care. It still comes down to whether honesty is a virtue or at least where it fits on the priority list of virtues. Personally, I sort of agree with you to the extent that I don't think it is valued as much nowadays. Not sure it's milleniials or evolution or selfishness or weariness.

No, it comes down to whether or not you include these emails in a debate about honesty, or if it was more procedural mistakes and screw ups. I can see the right side leaning towards the harsher judgment and the opposite from the left.

Like I said, for any candidate I'd want to hear the reasoning for doing it differently and then to be accountable as everyone else would be. But this jumping to a "Look, she's lying again!" mantra is silly.

Simple reason: Because more than most, this is going to be a philosophical election in an environment where the main Presidential candidates or on the wrong side of the trend. Political philosophy is going to matter, and the food fight for the right side of the Republican party will not help.

As an example, many, many, many moderate and independent voters won't vote for a Rubio who insists that that abortion be illegal in the case of rape, incest, and to save the life of the mother. Without social issues, he appears to be a strong choice against a flawed Hillary. With them, probably not.

Polls that show Republican candidates much stronger right now against Hillary don't mean much. They are the ones in the spotlight, while she struggles to retain attention.

Btw, neat article from 538/Silver on what will drive The Donald downward over time. He gives The Donald a 2% chance of winning the nomination. Of course, his chances of winning the election are much lower than that, because independents will flee from him in horror.
Donald Trump's six stages of doom. - ( New Window )

I completely understand the second account for personal e-mail. What a major pain in the ass it is. Very heavy security, everything scrubbed, password protected, html stripped and inconsistent speed. I use it for work ONLY.

In comment 12413798 manh george said:

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Simple reason: Because more than most, this is going to be a philosophical election in an environment where the main Presidential candidates or on the wrong side of the trend. Political philosophy is going to matter, and the food fight for the right side of the Republican party will not help. As an example, many, many, many moderate and independent voters won't vote for a Rubio who insists that that abortion be illegal in the case of rape, incest, and to save the life of the mother. Without social issues, he appears to be a strong choice against a flawed Hillary. With them, probably not. Polls that show Republican candidates much stronger right now against Hillary don't mean much. They are the ones in the spotlight, while she struggles to retain attention. Btw, neat article from 538/Silver on what will drive The Donald downward over time. He gives The Donald a 2% chance of winning the nomination. Of course, his chances of winning the election are much lower than that, because independents will flee from him in horror. Donald Trump's six stages of doom. - ( New Window )

The problem with Trump of course, isn't his winning the nomination (statistically nearly impossible) - it's how long he drags out the process - could be well into next year - and... will he run 3rd party? THAT would grease the skids for Hillary big time, or... dare I dream... Bernie? :)

Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has rocketed past longtime front-runner Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, a stunning turn in a race once considered a lock for the former secretary of state, a new Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll shows.
Poll: Bernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in N.H., 44-37 - ( New Window )

she probably would have already been arrested. I would guess almost any regular citizen with a security clearance that sent government work related e-mails to a private server would have been fired immediately. Having not only classified, but Top Secret documents included in those e-mails are easily grounds for an arrest.

What should happen: she should be arrested if / when there is clear evidence she had classified information on her server, ending her presidential bid (I hope this doesn't happen, because she appears to be a horrible candidate).

What will happen: somehow an "underling" will be made out to be the fall guy/gal, most of the sheep in the electorate won't grasp the seriousness of her behavior. Hopefully, she'll end up 0-2 in her presidential campaigns. The 10% of the electorate that are independents in a handful of swing states will decide the election.

In comment 12413779 Randy in CT said:

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In comment 12413762 Bill L said: Quote: In comment 12413757 Ben in Tampa said: Quote: In comment 12413743 fivehead said: Quote: depends on which side of the aisle you are on. To talk radio junkies, this shows how sneaky and underhanded she is. Liberals are like meh, not an issue that affects me Fixed that for you. And for the vast majority: Don't Care. It still comes down to whether honesty is a virtue or at least where it fits on the priority list of virtues. Personally, I sort of agree with you to the extent that I don't think it is valued as much nowadays. Not sure it's milleniials or evolution or selfishness or weariness. No, it comes down to whether or not you include these emails in a debate about honesty, or if it was more procedural mistakes and screw ups. I can see the right side leaning towards the harsher judgment and the opposite from the left. Like I said, for any candidate I'd want to hear the reasoning for doing it differently and then to be accountable as everyone else would be. But this jumping to a "Look, she's lying again!" mantra is silly.

A mistake made over and over again is a decision.

This was a conscious decision to avoid scrutiny by hiding her emails. Her explanations so far have been unsatisfactory. And yes, she's been caught it some outright lies (I never had classifed emails).

Question, if your ONLY email is that address, and you are SoS, doesn't it make sense that in the course of normal business, you would receive some classifed emails? Unless she had her spam filter on 'classified'. This is like the IRS saying they couldn't find the emails because the hard drive crashed. It's beyond belief and people are not buying it. We all have email, we all work and know that emails and everything else is backed up somewhere. They are just treating people like idiots because they think they can.

In comment 12413746 buford said:

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he could tell DOJ to go hard or lay off. It must gall the Clintons to have their fate in his hands. We all know that she isn't the successor that he would wish for. But is it Sanders? Or will this push Warren to get into the race. Or will Joe carry the torch for another 4 years?

This. If Obama wants Biden, Hillary could have problems

In comment 12413807 x meadowlander said:

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I completely understand the second account for personal e-mail. What a major pain in the ass it is. Very heavy security, everything scrubbed, password protected, html stripped and inconsistent speed. I use it for work ONLY.

But she ONLY used a personal email account.

First, she is just not a likeable person. She is as phony as a three dollar bill.
Second, she has a history of lying--travelgate records, the Brian Williams type lie of sniper fire in Bosnia, etc.
Third, this just doesn't make sense. Nobody deletes emails, especially personal ones. It is one thing not to turn over personal emails, it is quite another to wipe them off your hard drive.
Fourth, she cannot explain how Blumenthal's 15 emails, which were work related ended up deleted.
Five, unless the Republicans nominate someone crazy like Cruz or trump, she will have a hard time. Rubio, Kasich, and Walker all come from states where you need to appeal to independents to win. They are conservative but know how to talk about it in acceptable ways.

As William Safire once said, she is an extraordinarily accomplished and competent person, but she is a congenital liar and she most likely will not win a general election, if the Republicans nominate the three men I mentioned.

People think the Obama coalition in driving up turnout will automatically go to her. I have no idea, the Obama coalition has shown up for Obama, nobody else. In off year elections, the Dems have gotten crushed. Will it show up in a presidential year without Obama at the head of the ticket, is anyone's guess. But I am sure some people don't forget her and Bill's comments from 08, in particular after the SC primary.

In comment 12413634 Ben in Tampa said:

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The Clintons are some of the smartest people on earth. How they even got themselves into this mess is mind blowing. Ultimately I think she's still the nominee. On the other side, the GOP sees red meat here but if they latch onto this and the eventual nominee is still riding this horse next year they are just as stupid. No one will except the talk radio mouth breathers will care about email scandal as a main talking point in the general. FYI, John Kasich is surging in New Hampshire. If he gets the GOP nomination, HRC is cooked.

Actually this is not the first time they have been caught offloading, hiding, destroying emails. It happened during the Clinton administration and their are "ethics" case stuides about it in university programs. The level of corruption in our government is astounding and hopefully their is an outcry for jail time via prosecution.

Apply the same rules that they apply to others that they throw in jail for the same offenses, that is when you begin to realize their are two systems, one for the privileged and one for the rest.

But has there been a big name candidate with less enthusiasm than Jeb Bush? Has anyone met a passionate Jeb fan? It seems his biggest fan is Woody Johnson and the circle he runs with.

But they like to toe the line. I don't think she crossed it though.

Colin Powell did the exact same thing as SOS
used a private email for correspondence

Condi Rice claims she barely used email

HRC didn't do this illegally -- She received approval from Obama Administration (it doesn't matter if they were against the setup - in the end they approved it )

It is amazing how Republicans media machine can create a scandal where there is none

After the millions of tax payer money , Republicans have spend on investigating I am still waiting for Bengazi to bring down HRC and Obama

In comment 12413936 giantfan2000 said:

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Colin Powell did the exact same thing as SOS used a private email for correspondence Condi Rice claims she barely used email HRC didn't do this illegally -- She received approval from Obama Administration (it doesn't matter if they were against the setup - in the end they approved it ) It is amazing how Republicans media machine can create a scandal where there is none After the millions of tax payer money , Republicans have spend on investigating I am still waiting for Bengazi to bring down HRC and Obama

Hillary (or her lawyer) can tell all that to the FBI.

she's innocent. Trust me."
-----Bill Clinton.

In comment 12413963 buford said:

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In comment 12413936 giantfan2000 said: Quote: Colin Powell did the exact same thing as SOS used a private email for correspondence Condi Rice claims she barely used email HRC didn't do this illegally -- She received approval from Obama Administration (it doesn't matter if they were against the setup - in the end they approved it ) It is amazing how Republicans media machine can create a scandal where there is none After the millions of tax payer money , Republicans have spend on investigating I am still waiting for Bengazi to bring down HRC and Obama Hillary (or her lawyer) can tell all that to the FBI.

Blah Blah Blah I don't want to hear any facts that go against my hating the left!!

In comment 12413980 Randy in CT said:

Quote:

In comment 12413963 buford said: Quote: In comment 12413936 giantfan2000 said: Quote: Colin Powell did the exact same thing as SOS used a private email for correspondence Condi Rice claims she barely used email HRC didn't do this illegally -- She received approval from Obama Administration (it doesn't matter if they were against the setup - in the end they approved it ) It is amazing how Republicans media machine can create a scandal where there is none After the millions of tax payer money , Republicans have spend on investigating I am still waiting for Bengazi to bring down HRC and Obama Hillary (or her lawyer) can tell all that to the FBI. Blah Blah Blah I don't want to hear any facts that go against my hating the left!!

Can't we say "right back atcha"?

and her status as the biggest FOIA scofflaw of all time will sink the country if she isnt stopped. The country needs to wise up and view HRC through the lens of her most ardent detractors -- the ones who hold fake scandals like Whitewater and Vince Foster against her (because being falsely accused of a lot of stuff = being guilty of one thing).

The Republicans will win the day if they can just be smart enough to nominate someone with the politics and give-them-shit attitude of Ted Cruz. Except not Ted Cruz, because he is unelectable. But someone EXACTLY like Ted Cruz. Except electable.

In comment 12413984 Bill L said:

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In comment 12413980 Randy in CT said: Quote: In comment 12413963 buford said: Quote: In comment 12413936 giantfan2000 said: Quote: Colin Powell did the exact same thing as SOS used a private email for correspondence Condi Rice claims she barely used email HRC didn't do this illegally -- She received approval from Obama Administration (it doesn't matter if they were against the setup - in the end they approved it ) It is amazing how Republicans media machine can create a scandal where there is none After the millions of tax payer money , Republicans have spend on investigating I am still waiting for Bengazi to bring down HRC and Obama Hillary (or her lawyer) can tell all that to the FBI. Blah Blah Blah I don't want to hear any facts that go against my hating the left!! Can't we say "right back atcha"?

Sure! That was mostly for buford who's mind-numbingly boring posts never deviate from the right.

deletion of 22 million emails on a private server, where effectively no review was done to preserve emails? Oh wait, no, that was the Bush White House.

supporters that they are coming and will be coming after her with everything they got.This has caught her supporters off guard,they never expected this and they are befuddled and bewildered

we are not befuddled and bewildered. The willingness of HRC's detractors to believe the most ridiculous bullshit about her and to take any allegation and both assume it is true and make it out to be the worst thing ever is neither new nor a surprise.

Punch drunk we are not.

In comment 12414010 Headhunter said:

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supporters that they are coming and will be coming after her with everything they got.This has caught her supporters off guard,they never expected this and they are befuddled and bewildered

I'm not a supporter.

But she's Teflon against this crap. This isn't going to change anyone's opinion one iota.

That doesn't mean she won't shit the bed before election day. I know she has it in her. :)

In all likelihood, it's Jeb vs. Hill.

The x-factors of course are Sanders and Trump. Not that Trump can statistically take the Republican nomination - far too many Republican voters are polling that they would NEVER vote for him - BUT if he runs 3rd party? :)

her poll numbers are cratering and Bernie now leads her in NH.

She may have to get elected president so she can pardon herself.