He's not shooting himself in the foot because if he could he would of done 40 times already. He is the true Teflon Don. Let's say the field gets down to 4, who are they going to rally around to knock him out?
party primary, so like you, being concerned more with the other party candidate than the one from the party I generally support I am voting in the Democratic primary for whoever has a chance against Hillary.
Less important to me than who the Republicans nominate is the fear of god that Hillary Clinton might someday be the most powerful person on the planet and the leader of our great country. that is the train that needs to be stopped.
It may be the delegates at the convention. A floor fight is a real possibility. Trump has no chance there but unfortunately Bush has a good chance there.
first, his poll numbers sag under their own weight and start coming back to earth as America gets as tired of the Donald as they do of Cecil the Lion. Second, we actually get to the primary and he's still somewhere near the top of the polls. Until his merry band of Twitter assholes and Facebook sharers realizes they actually have to do more than click "retweet" to cast a primary ballot for him and the majority of them fail to do so.
he taps into something out there that crosses political lines. His supporters don't like him, they love him. If you think his support is low information wing nuts, you are in for a rude awakening. A lot of very smart successful people
that you would think would laugh at Trump love him.
There are 17 (R) candidates and it is August 2015... no one is really paying that close attention, so the the media gravitates to ratings -grabber Trump. People are generally fed up with the government and the hollow truths they tells us, so Trump's brand of "tell it like it is" feels refreshing.
At some point next year, sh!t gets serious, the # candidates whittle down and Trump goes back to being the sideshow clown that he is.
Do we really need a new thread on him every week?
I'm no longer interested in seeing him knocked out Â
His presence is a big fu to the PAC money candidates that are spending millions to craft their image and exploit the media to make them look presidential. Looks don't cut it. No one on the GOP is talking about issues proactively (cut this, eliminate that is not building a better anything). Trump's only vulnerability is issues, so he puts pressure on them to go there. The sooner they start promoting a vision, the better off they will be.
he taps into something out there that crosses political lines. His supporters don't like him, they love him. If you think his support is low information wing nuts, you are in for a rude awakening. A lot of very smart successful people
that you would think would laugh at Trump love him.
We've talked about it on other threads but it's not just a Republican appeal, that is true. And from what I gather (and this is anecdotally) it's not just angry white people either, though I would imagine his unfavorables among Hispanic voters are close to triple digits. Hillary Clinton is just that repulsive, and Jeb Bush just that utterly uninspiring, and people wonder why in the fuck this is the best we can do.
Bernie Sanders sound canned and paid for career politician. Hillary is toast. Forget about her, she's done. I see a possibility of a Trump presidency which I didn't see a month ago
They have been doing this dance in the NYC tabloids for 40 years. Expecting him to knock himself out is wishful thinking. He has more experience at his brand of PR than anyone else in the race.
finally someone who says what he really feels even if what he says isn't doable or practiclal. He is unafraid. People are sick of professional politicians with their poll tested answers.
I think somewhere along the way Trump went from a guy Â
Looking to have some fun running for President to realizing he could actually be President. He fancies himself the 2016 version of Ronald Regan - a charismatic guy with strong leadership skills without a real Presidential pedigree, but a guy who can win.
That being said, it is still very early so anything can happen. I think Kasich is a guy with a charisma and personality who could take off if he makes it far enough.
Jeb and Walker have been shockingly bad. Robotic, no spine, sort of aloof.
Looking to have some fun running for President to realizing he could actually be President. He fancies himself the 2016 version of Ronald Regan - a charismatic guy with strong leadership skills without a real Presidential pedigree, but a guy who can win.
That being said, it is still very early so anything can happen. I think Kasich is a guy with a charisma and personality who could take off if he makes it far enough.
Jeb and Walker have been shockingly bad. Robotic, no spine, sort of aloof.
Reagan was the governor of the most populous state in the country and had been speaking with a relatively consistent message on political affairs for a generation. He was also a man who had genuine appeal to broad swaths of people, even among some who disagreed with him. Trump is the anti-Reagan.
I watch the candidates do their interviews and my eyeballs roll because it is the same politically correct poll tested watch every word pablum. To me it's all blah, blah, blah. It's refreshing to hear someone speak their mind and talk about how they really feel even if some stuff is from crazy town. People are fed up looking to professional pols to fix the problems.
he taps into something out there that crosses political lines. His supporters don't like him, they love him. If you think his support is low information wing nuts, you are in for a rude awakening. A lot of very smart successful people
that you would think would laugh at Trump love him.
Being "smart and successful" and being a "low information wingnut" are not remotely mutually exclusive.
Toby HarndenVerified account
þ@tobyharnden
Page 1, today's @thesundaytimes: @realDonaldTrump tried to woo Princess Diana, saw her as "the ultimate trophy wife"
So whats the spin? She was the ultimate trophy wife, and the Donald spent alot time and money trying to get her on his boat (anybody remember that enormous rig he used to park at the Water Club? It had a funny name and he wound up selling it to a Saudi during one of his flirts with bankruptcy). And of course he wound up with Marla Maples, who he picked up at church and was a far cry from Lady Di.
Just more of The Donald. When you go into his past that's typical of what you'll find.
The proportion of Republicans who won't vote for him under any circumstances remains extremely high. A ceiling of 30% or so can get you to the Convention, but he will be ripped to shreds there by whomever in the top one or two of other candidates at that time the establishment leadership decides to back.
Plus, of course, there is ample time for many of his supporters to get tired of him as the flavor du jour.
Plus, plus, his history of liberal views in many areas, possibly aside from illegal immigration, won't fly in a lot of states after Iowa and NH. But there is an excellent chance he will stay around long enough to make things very messy for the ultimate candidate.
And, his views on immigration are typical: he has staked out a position so extreme that even a lot of Republicans will end up uncomfortable.
Still think Hillary gets the nomination unless something full-blown indictable is laid at her doorstep--not at one of her team's. Bernie has a ceiling, too, and no ground game. Biden has no ground game either, and he will inevitably say some really stupid things, because he's Biden.
Trump will have to talk about the issues in depth, policies, and talk about real solutions and plans. That should go pretty poorly. And until then, he will continue to put his foot in his mouth, given him being a loud-mouthed, arrogant asshole and all.
But is that necessarily the case? Won't Cruz supporters move to him? Won't Huckabee supporters? What about Ben Carson who is in second?
I don't think it's a given that everyone will suddenly flock to Jeb Bush. He probably picks up Fiorino fans, Rubio fans, Christie fans too but that doesnt add up to that much...
The level of your ceiling matters a lot, and Trump's is low. Will Tea Party Activists and others who tend to vote in primaries flock to a candidate whose positions they don;t trust at all? Doubtful. Trump's six stages of doom. - ( New Window )
there hasn't even been a single primary vote cast yet Â
Show people you have a pulse. Be who you are, that your comfortable within your own skin. Say what you mean and defend it.
The Trump phenomenon is really not all about him (all though I'm sure he would like you to believe otherwise). It's the same reason why Bernie & Carson are currently doing well. Imo also why Reagan and Obama were successful candidates.
who seem to know Hillary is done and Trump will shoot himself in the foot well before this gets serious. Its a fact these 2 things are going down.LMAO.
party primary, so like you, being concerned more with the other party candidate than the one from the party I generally support I am voting in the Democratic primary for whoever has a chance against Hillary.
Less important to me than who the Republicans nominate is the fear of god that Hillary Clinton might someday be the most powerful person on the planet and the leader of our great country. that is the train that needs to be stopped.
I might do that too here in Georgia. I'll vote for Bernie unless there is a R who I really want to win.
Eventually the Republican race will get down to two candidates. As others have said, the question is how much higher than that 30% or so can he count on from the (rightfully) angry anti-establishment GOP group. Has he hit a ceiling of absolute numbers of angry but not very thoughtful supporters?
It's my belief (hope?) that the Trumpistas are more of a fringe group than what I saw as a more rational Tea Party group (despite the MSM). Many in the latter were disillusioned, rather than fired up when they voted "their guys" in, and nothing happened despite promises. (ObamaCare, immigration etc)
For those reasons, I see (hope?) the other "non-establishment" candidates (Cruz, Carson, Carly, et al; maybe even Rubio) in the long run gathering most of the votes from those currently not supporting Trump.
The WORST thing other candidates (and right leaning media) can do is attack Donald. That would only add to the angry supporters who think he is being treated unfairly, and could even trigger an irrational third party run.
The latest GOP poll was done by Fox 8/11-8/13. It has Â
party primary, so like you, being concerned more with the other party candidate than the one from the party I generally support I am voting in the Democratic primary for whoever has a chance against Hillary.
Less important to me than who the Republicans nominate is the fear of god that Hillary Clinton might someday be the most powerful person on the planet and the leader of our great country. that is the train that needs to be stopped.
I might do that too here in Georgia. I'll vote for Bernie unless there is a R who I really want to win.
Nothing about Trump of Republicans or Democrats, but I wanted to say that I have always found that type of primary to be abhorrent and one of the most anti-democratic things in our whole system. Whether he's a great guy or an abominable douche, the party and only the party members should get to say who represents them and their ideology in the election.
Cruz, Walker, Santorum are basically the same guy from the point of view of the less locally interested or casual right winger.
You can add Paul if you like, I think he is different that those guys, much more moderate in certain positions (listen carefully, he refused to condemn gay marriage, instead taking the position of getting the government/the state, out of the marriage business...which is a great idea).
Nevertheless, take any candidate from the right, other than Trump...as the option to Trump vs Hillz...and that 'any' candidate beats Trump by 80/20.
Ditto any of the moderates, Florio/Rubio/Kasich. as the option, 80/20.
Once again, the media has been truly idiotic on this.
Cruz, Walker, Santorum are basically the same guy from the point of view of the less locally interested or casual right winger.
You can add Paul if you like, I think he is different that those guys, much more moderate in certain positions (listen carefully, he refused to condemn gay marriage, instead taking the position of getting the government/the state, out of the marriage business...which is a great idea).
Nevertheless, take any candidate from the right, other than Trump...as the option to Trump vs Hillz...and that 'any' candidate beats Trump by 80/20.
Ditto any of the moderates, Florio/Rubio/Kasich. as the option, 80/20.
Once again, the media has been truly idiotic on this.
Cruz, Walker and Santorum are different candidates with very different constituencies. Santorum has limited traction outside the religious right. Cruz is the darling of the Tea Party and fellow travelers. And Walker is liked among much of the base for his attacks on public sector unions in Wisconsin but doesn't have an obvious constituency of GOP voters.
party primary, so like you, being concerned more with the other party candidate than the one from the party I generally support I am voting in the Democratic primary for whoever has a chance against Hillary.
Less important to me than who the Republicans nominate is the fear of god that Hillary Clinton might someday be the most powerful person on the planet and the leader of our great country. that is the train that needs to be stopped.
I might do that too here in Georgia. I'll vote for Bernie unless there is a R who I really want to win.
Nothing about Trump of Republicans or Democrats, but I wanted to say that I have always found that type of primary to be abhorrent and one of the most anti-democratic things in our whole system. Whether he's a great guy or an abominable douche, the party and only the party members should get to say who represents them and their ideology in the election.
BOO! I reject the two party system. They are the biggest problem in American politics, IMO.
good post man george I agree with everything you said except
Quote:
The proportion of Republicans who won't vote for him under any circumstances remains extremely high. A ceiling of 30% or so can get you to the Convention, but he will be ripped to shreds there by whomever in the top one or two of other candidates at that time the establishment leadership decides to back.
if you look back at past 2 republican primaries - McCain and Romney were both polling in 30% range at beginning . The way the Republican primary system is set up .. the front runner has huge advantage in that the front runner can grab the most delegates even if they have a plurality rather than majority win ... . but that is if they can translate their front runner status to delegates.
This is where Trump could slip up .. He could be first or second in early primaries but not have the ground gain to translate these wins into delegates
But He has tapped into something that is resonating with people. which is he is anti politician . .
If Hillary can survive the hit jobs from the right then she will be fine
If she bows up then it is going to be a wild Democratic primary
I can see Biden , Al Gore jumping in and a draft Lizzy Warren movement happening
or
the oligarchy
???
Less important to me than who the Republicans nominate is the fear of god that Hillary Clinton might someday be the most powerful person on the planet and the leader of our great country. that is the train that needs to be stopped.
that you would think would laugh at Trump love him.
Bush comes across like a spineless wimp, and we all know what an unethical, dishonest, horrible human being Hillary Clinton is.
Give me a Rubio/Fiorina ticket.
At some point next year, sh!t gets serious, the # candidates whittle down and Trump goes back to being the sideshow clown that he is.
Do we really need a new thread on him every week?
that you would think would laugh at Trump love him.
We've talked about it on other threads but it's not just a Republican appeal, that is true. And from what I gather (and this is anecdotally) it's not just angry white people either, though I would imagine his unfavorables among Hispanic voters are close to triple digits. Hillary Clinton is just that repulsive, and Jeb Bush just that utterly uninspiring, and people wonder why in the fuck this is the best we can do.
That being said, it is still very early so anything can happen. I think Kasich is a guy with a charisma and personality who could take off if he makes it far enough.
Jeb and Walker have been shockingly bad. Robotic, no spine, sort of aloof.
þ@tobyharnden
Page 1, today's @thesundaytimes: @realDonaldTrump tried to woo Princess Diana, saw her as "the ultimate trophy wife"
That being said, it is still very early so anything can happen. I think Kasich is a guy with a charisma and personality who could take off if he makes it far enough.
Jeb and Walker have been shockingly bad. Robotic, no spine, sort of aloof.
Reagan was the governor of the most populous state in the country and had been speaking with a relatively consistent message on political affairs for a generation. He was also a man who had genuine appeal to broad swaths of people, even among some who disagreed with him. Trump is the anti-Reagan.
that you would think would laugh at Trump love him.
Being "smart and successful" and being a "low information wingnut" are not remotely mutually exclusive.
he'd been governor of California and active in politics for decades.
he nearly won the Republican nomination in 1976.
Trump's presidential pedigree is closer to Obama (and I do not mean this as an insult one bit) than Reagan.
þ@tobyharnden
Page 1, today's @thesundaytimes: @realDonaldTrump tried to woo Princess Diana, saw her as "the ultimate trophy wife"
So whats the spin? She was the ultimate trophy wife, and the Donald spent alot time and money trying to get her on his boat (anybody remember that enormous rig he used to park at the Water Club? It had a funny name and he wound up selling it to a Saudi during one of his flirts with bankruptcy). And of course he wound up with Marla Maples, who he picked up at church and was a far cry from Lady Di.
Just more of The Donald. When you go into his past that's typical of what you'll find.
Plus, of course, there is ample time for many of his supporters to get tired of him as the flavor du jour.
Plus, plus, his history of liberal views in many areas, possibly aside from illegal immigration, won't fly in a lot of states after Iowa and NH. But there is an excellent chance he will stay around long enough to make things very messy for the ultimate candidate.
And, his views on immigration are typical: he has staked out a position so extreme that even a lot of Republicans will end up uncomfortable.
Still think Hillary gets the nomination unless something full-blown indictable is laid at her doorstep--not at one of her team's. Bernie has a ceiling, too, and no ground game. Biden has no ground game either, and he will inevitably say some really stupid things, because he's Biden.
Donalds Duck - ( New Window )
I don't think it's a given that everyone will suddenly flock to Jeb Bush. He probably picks up Fiorino fans, Rubio fans, Christie fans too but that doesnt add up to that much...
Here is a telling table from past elections.
The level of your ceiling matters a lot, and Trump's is low. Will Tea Party Activists and others who tend to vote in primaries flock to a candidate whose positions they don;t trust at all? Doubtful.
Trump's six stages of doom. - ( New Window )
Show people you have a pulse. Be who you are, that your comfortable within your own skin. Say what you mean and defend it.
The Trump phenomenon is really not all about him (all though I'm sure he would like you to believe otherwise). It's the same reason why Bernie & Carson are currently doing well. Imo also why Reagan and Obama were successful candidates.
The candidate that "stops" Trump is the candidate that decides to put all their chips on themselves.
Less important to me than who the Republicans nominate is the fear of god that Hillary Clinton might someday be the most powerful person on the planet and the leader of our great country. that is the train that needs to be stopped.
I might do that too here in Georgia. I'll vote for Bernie unless there is a R who I really want to win.
The candidate that "stops" Trump is the candidate that decides to put all their chips on themselves.
Sounds like a job for this guy:
It's my belief (hope?) that the Trumpistas are more of a fringe group than what I saw as a more rational Tea Party group (despite the MSM). Many in the latter were disillusioned, rather than fired up when they voted "their guys" in, and nothing happened despite promises. (ObamaCare, immigration etc)
For those reasons, I see (hope?) the other "non-establishment" candidates (Cruz, Carson, Carly, et al; maybe even Rubio) in the long run gathering most of the votes from those currently not supporting Trump.
The WORST thing other candidates (and right leaning media) can do is attack Donald. That would only add to the angry supporters who think he is being treated unfairly, and could even trigger an irrational third party run.
Carson 12
Cruz 10
Bush 9
Huckabee and Walker 6
Fiorina 5
The Dem poll (also by Fox) has Clinton at 49%, Sanders 30% and Biden 10%. That race may be getting serious.
Quote:
party primary, so like you, being concerned more with the other party candidate than the one from the party I generally support I am voting in the Democratic primary for whoever has a chance against Hillary.
Less important to me than who the Republicans nominate is the fear of god that Hillary Clinton might someday be the most powerful person on the planet and the leader of our great country. that is the train that needs to be stopped.
I might do that too here in Georgia. I'll vote for Bernie unless there is a R who I really want to win.
Nothing about Trump of Republicans or Democrats, but I wanted to say that I have always found that type of primary to be abhorrent and one of the most anti-democratic things in our whole system. Whether he's a great guy or an abominable douche, the party and only the party members should get to say who represents them and their ideology in the election.
Cruz, Walker, Santorum are basically the same guy from the point of view of the less locally interested or casual right winger.
You can add Paul if you like, I think he is different that those guys, much more moderate in certain positions (listen carefully, he refused to condemn gay marriage, instead taking the position of getting the government/the state, out of the marriage business...which is a great idea).
Nevertheless, take any candidate from the right, other than Trump...as the option to Trump vs Hillz...and that 'any' candidate beats Trump by 80/20.
Ditto any of the moderates, Florio/Rubio/Kasich. as the option, 80/20.
Once again, the media has been truly idiotic on this.
Cruz, Walker, Santorum are basically the same guy from the point of view of the less locally interested or casual right winger.
You can add Paul if you like, I think he is different that those guys, much more moderate in certain positions (listen carefully, he refused to condemn gay marriage, instead taking the position of getting the government/the state, out of the marriage business...which is a great idea).
Nevertheless, take any candidate from the right, other than Trump...as the option to Trump vs Hillz...and that 'any' candidate beats Trump by 80/20.
Ditto any of the moderates, Florio/Rubio/Kasich. as the option, 80/20.
Once again, the media has been truly idiotic on this.
Cruz, Walker and Santorum are different candidates with very different constituencies. Santorum has limited traction outside the religious right. Cruz is the darling of the Tea Party and fellow travelers. And Walker is liked among much of the base for his attacks on public sector unions in Wisconsin but doesn't have an obvious constituency of GOP voters.
I thought it appropriate to the whole mess.
Quote:
In comment 12421493 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
party primary, so like you, being concerned more with the other party candidate than the one from the party I generally support I am voting in the Democratic primary for whoever has a chance against Hillary.
Less important to me than who the Republicans nominate is the fear of god that Hillary Clinton might someday be the most powerful person on the planet and the leader of our great country. that is the train that needs to be stopped.
I might do that too here in Georgia. I'll vote for Bernie unless there is a R who I really want to win.
Nothing about Trump of Republicans or Democrats, but I wanted to say that I have always found that type of primary to be abhorrent and one of the most anti-democratic things in our whole system. Whether he's a great guy or an abominable douche, the party and only the party members should get to say who represents them and their ideology in the election.
BOO! I reject the two party system. They are the biggest problem in American politics, IMO.
if you look back at past 2 republican primaries - McCain and Romney were both polling in 30% range at beginning . The way the Republican primary system is set up .. the front runner has huge advantage in that the front runner can grab the most delegates even if they have a plurality rather than majority win ... . but that is if they can translate their front runner status to delegates.
This is where Trump could slip up .. He could be first or second in early primaries but not have the ground gain to translate these wins into delegates
But He has tapped into something that is resonating with people. which is he is anti politician . .
If Hillary can survive the hit jobs from the right then she will be fine
If she bows up then it is going to be a wild Democratic primary
I can see Biden , Al Gore jumping in and a draft Lizzy Warren movement happening
it won't be Sanders ever.