From Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog ... 3:33 PM ...
I give a 20% chance that Erika will end up being a landfalling hurricane for the U.S. East Coast, a 40% chance storm will dissipate by Saturday, and a 30% chance the storm will be too weak and disorganized to have time to organize into a hurricane before hitting the U.S. East Coast. There is also a small chance (10%) that Erika could miss the U.S. East Coast--a situation that would most likely arise if Erika quickly organizes into a hurricane by Saturday, and thus "feels" the steering influence of winds higher up in the atmosphere, forcing the storm to recurve out to sea. WeatherUnderground ... - (
New Window )
Hopefully stays a tropical storm and we re-gain power after a day or so.
Check Friday or Saturday to get a better idea of where and when. Meantime get your water, canned foods and gasoline stocked.
Wow. They posted the wrong map. That's dated today at 11:00 AM, not pm. Here's NOAA'a 11:00pm map. It's good for Florida.
Is there an issue with the sand in Florida or just your eremikophobia kicking in?
How bad is it looking right now? Perhaps it may veer further upwards or they can fly around to back end of storm?
Link - ( New Window )
Marine - probably get seasick....
Not surprisingly, several statistics-based models, which rely heavily on climatology and extrapolation of recent trends, are now taking Erika on a more westward recurvature, through the heart of the Gulf of Mexico. If Erika were to take such an extreme westward track, some rebound in strength would be plausible, since the storm would largely avoid passing over the landmass of Cuba, and deep-layer shear is expected to relax somewhat over the weekend. However, the dynamical models agree that Erika should begin arcing more northwestward across the spine of Cuba on Saturday, with a slower motion to boot. Such a scenario would quickly sound the death knell for Erika as a tropical cyclone, and this is the most probable solution, although a more westward-curving track can’t be entirely ruled out.
Regardless of how it’s classified, Erika can be expected to produce large amounts of rain across Cuba this weekend, and the storm or its remnants will likely drench Florida early next week. Some parts of the state could use the rain, but many other parts--especially the western peninsula, including the Tampa area--are already waterlogged after an very wet few weeks (see Figure 4 below). The potential for a weak but large tropical depression to cause widespread flooding should not be underestimated.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Surface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of the center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba. Winds of near 30 kt are occurring to the north and east of the center, and these conditions will likely continue through at least this
afternoon.
The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24 hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours. After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear could relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. Regardless of regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during the next couple of days.
This will be the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs. Additional information can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service.
Sincerly,
The Weather Channel