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NFT: Iowa Polls - Trump, Carson, Sanders doing well

Ira : 8/31/2015 7:14 am
These polls were conducted by Bloomberg and the Des Moines Register. The Republican poll shows Trump leading at 23% followed by a surprising showing by Carson at 18%. All the rest have single digits.

In the Democratic poll, Hillary still leads with 37% with Sanders getting close with 30% and the unannounced Biden at 14%.
Link - ( New Window )
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The reason that unions require you to opt  
kicker : 8/31/2015 2:43 pm : link
out, rather than opt in, is from psychology and economics. It's called the status quo bias and is utilized by many organizations.
RE: Oh this should be good for a giggle.  
section125 : 8/31/2015 2:47 pm : link
In comment 12445061 kicker said:
Quote:
Who has pretended that unions are 100% beneficent here?


Unfortunately kicker there are some that miss the point of unions and only see the evils of the 1960/70 era Teamsters, UAW etc. What they don't see or hear are the horror stories pre-union or the vast benefits of the unions.
No unions are not perfect, but in an age of ACA and people without medical insurance most unions have medical insurance or members can get it at a very cheap price, for example.
They serve their purpose and the benefits to the members far outweigh the disadvantages.
RE: RE: Oh this should be good for a giggle.  
Bill L : 8/31/2015 2:49 pm : link
In comment 12445078 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 12445061 kicker said:


Quote:


Who has pretended that unions are 100% beneficent here?



Unfortunately kicker there are some that miss the point of unions and only see the evils of the 1960/70 era Teamsters, UAW etc. What they don't see or hear are the horror stories pre-union or the vast benefits of the unions.
No unions are not perfect, but in an age of ACA and people without medical insurance most unions have medical insurance or members can get it at a very cheap price, for example.
They serve their purpose and the benefits to the members far outweigh the disadvantages.
DOes that include public sector unions? I've always had a difficult time seeing them in the same light as those fighting the robber barons.
Tom Perkins  
Deej : 8/31/2015 2:50 pm : link
Also did a bad job at HP -- the board is as responsible as management for the failures of a company. He was a legacy Compaq board member and was an outspoken supporter of that merger, which was bad for HP. So that's a pretty biased source.

But more importantly, Tom Perkins is a batshit crazy octogenarian. He wrote a universally panned letter to the WSJ last year which began:

Quote:
Writing from the epicenter of progressive thought, San Francisco, I would call attention to the parallels of fascist Nazi Germany to its war on its "one percent," namely its Jews, to the progressive war on the American one percent, namely the "rich."


He concluded his obscene garbage rambling by warning:

Quote:
Kristallnacht was unthinkable in 1930; is its descendent "progressive" radicalism unthinkable now


His old firm quickly distanced itself from him, tweeting:
"Tom Perkins has not been involved in KPCB in years. We were shocked by his views expressed today in the WSJ and do not agree." He followed up that crazy with public remarks where he proposed that people who pay more in taxes should get more votes.

So he's a biased nut job.
Hopefully democrats don't want to kill the rich  
Bill L : 8/31/2015 2:52 pm : link
I'm not rich but I still think that would suck.
Now it makes  
Headhunter : 8/31/2015 2:53 pm : link
sense
Public sector unions didn't come into being until the  
kicker : 8/31/2015 2:54 pm : link
1960's.

Evidence shows they are much more effective than private sector unions recently. Their role is a bit muddier.
I just don't see how over 50 percent  
Headhunter : 8/31/2015 2:57 pm : link
of the Republican electorate( if Iowa is representative) decides to back a mainstream candidate by flipping a switch from Primary season to General Election season.
The GOP will vote for its nominee  
Deej : 8/31/2015 3:06 pm : link
Santorum/Newt/Cain voters voted for Romney. Hillary voters voted for Obama. If Hillary is the Dem nominee then I suspect the GOP wont even have that hard a time turning out the vote. This doesnt even seem like the decisive of a primary on the GOP side so far.
one strange election season  
Headhunter : 8/31/2015 3:11 pm : link
on both sides
The irony is that public sector unions...  
manh george : 8/31/2015 3:14 pm : link
are on of the 3-4 key reasons why Republicans dominate at the state and local level. Taxpayers have no say in the fact that public pensions in many cases are vast overpromises, and they are rightfully pissed about it. The public sector union link with the Democrats is thus a
problem at the state and local level, but not at the national level.

Walker in Wisconsin and Kasich in Ohio had some valid arguments about the excess power of public sector unions. Their way of articulating those points was world-class incompetent. And of course in Walker's case, he tied Public Pension issues to Right to Work, largely on behalf of the Koch Brothers and their buddies. Kasich didn't attempt that, nor does he agree with it.
RE: I just don't see how over 50 percent  
BeerFridge : 8/31/2015 3:17 pm : link
In comment 12445092 Headhunter said:
Quote:
of the Republican electorate( if Iowa is representative) decides to back a mainstream candidate by flipping a switch from Primary season to General Election season.


Santorum won Iowa in 2012, I believe. It's early and they aren't necessarily representative of anything but Iowa.
RE: Buford of course you will have members of unions  
buford : 8/31/2015 3:25 pm : link
In comment 12445057 Stu11 said:
Quote:
that are republicans. However please point out one current national republican candidate that unions should put their endorsement and support behind. Scot Walker? Literally every one has come out vociferously against the concept of organized labor at one time or another either verbally or more importantly through implemented policy.


That isn't the point. The point is that there is a lot of crying about the Koch Brothers and Citizens United but the amounts of money that flow to the Democrats is never mentioned.

The reason Walker was against the unions was that they were bankrupting the states. Look at Illinois, Detroit and other municipalities that are having severe financial issues, yet the unions ask for more and more. Even Rahm Emanuel, dem mayor of Chicago had to say no to the Teachers union there.
Oh, and those teachers weren't Republicans  
buford : 8/31/2015 3:25 pm : link
they are Democrats, but did not want to endorse Hillary Clinton.
RE: The irony is that public sector unions...  
buford : 8/31/2015 3:28 pm : link
In comment 12445115 manh george said:
Quote:
are on of the 3-4 key reasons why Republicans dominate at the state and local level. Taxpayers have no say in the fact that public pensions in many cases are vast overpromises, and they are rightfully pissed about it. The public sector union link with the Democrats is thus a
problem at the state and local level, but not at the national level.

Walker in Wisconsin and Kasich in Ohio had some valid arguments about the excess power of public sector unions. Their way of articulating those points was world-class incompetent. And of course in Walker's case, he tied Public Pension issues to Right to Work, largely on behalf of the Koch Brothers and their buddies. Kasich didn't attempt that, nor does he agree with it.


KOCH BROTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!
RE: RE: The irony is that public sector unions...  
BeerFridge : 8/31/2015 3:31 pm : link
In comment 12445143 buford said:
Quote:
In comment 12445115 manh george said:


Quote:


are on of the 3-4 key reasons why Republicans dominate at the state and local level. Taxpayers have no say in the fact that public pensions in many cases are vast overpromises, and they are rightfully pissed about it. The public sector union link with the Democrats is thus a
problem at the state and local level, but not at the national level.

Walker in Wisconsin and Kasich in Ohio had some valid arguments about the excess power of public sector unions. Their way of articulating those points was world-class incompetent. And of course in Walker's case, he tied Public Pension issues to Right to Work, largely on behalf of the Koch Brothers and their buddies. Kasich didn't attempt that, nor does he agree with it.



KOCH BROTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who spends more, Buford? Koch brothers or all unions combined? - ( New Window )
Of course Scott Walker had to fuck the unions in his state  
Deej : 8/31/2015 3:34 pm : link
they had the temerity to not even own one -- ONE -- NBA team. All those union members and not one of them bothered to buy even the Timberwolves, who suck.

Their mistake, because if you own an NBA team, Scott Walker gives you $250 million in state money for your new arena. Teachers are so stupid.
The last National Polls  
Headhunter : 8/31/2015 3:35 pm : link
showed Trump Carson Cruz with over 50% combined. To me Iowa is bit of an outlier, nationally you cant be comfortable if you are looking for a moderate
RE: Of course Scott Walker had to fuck the unions in his state  
WideRight : 8/31/2015 3:39 pm : link
In comment 12445151 Deej said:
Quote:
they had the temerity to not even own one -- ONE -- NBA team. All those union members and not one of them bothered to buy even the Timberwolves, who suck.

Their mistake, because if you own an NBA team, Scott Walker gives you $250 million in state money for your new arena. Teachers are so stupid.


Its known as UW stadium because 250M is the same amount he deducted from the University of Wisconsin budget that year.

Not sure how he's going to get past that.
And I wouldn't be surprised  
WideRight : 8/31/2015 3:41 pm : link
If the Koch brothers get a good portion of that 250M for construction.
RE: RE: RE: Oh this should be good for a giggle.  
section125 : 8/31/2015 3:44 pm : link
In comment 12445080 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 12445078 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 12445061 kicker said:


Quote:


Who has pretended that unions are 100% beneficent here?



Unfortunately kicker there are some that miss the point of unions and only see the evils of the 1960/70 era Teamsters, UAW etc. What they don't see or hear are the horror stories pre-union or the vast benefits of the unions.
No unions are not perfect, but in an age of ACA and people without medical insurance most unions have medical insurance or members can get it at a very cheap price, for example.
They serve their purpose and the benefits to the members far outweigh the disadvantages.

DOes that include public sector unions? I've always had a difficult time seeing them in the same light as those fighting the robber barons.


Is there a bigger "robber baron" than the government? The government "owns" the courts system. Their lawyers are on "retainer." Do you think a public employee has the resources to fight the city, county, state, or federal government. Look at what Walker did in Wisconsin even with union resources...
Watching the desperation of the field candidates  
Headhunter : 8/31/2015 3:44 pm : link
at the bottom of the polls is a guilty pleasure. Christie wants to keep track of illegals like Fedex packages, Walker thinks a Wall on the Canadian border has some merit, Bobby Jindal thinks, well nobody gives a rats ass what Bobby Jindal thinks. They go on the shows and they interview and you wonder, why?
Yeah, I expect if there's another debate, the second tier guys  
BeerFridge : 8/31/2015 3:52 pm : link
will fall all over themselves to take shots at Trump. Gotta do something to differentiate yourself from the bottom rung.
But I want to see and hear  
Headhunter : 8/31/2015 3:56 pm : link
how crazy they will get to keep relevant. Declare war on Canada take over their oil fields? Make every women that gets an abortion wear a Scarlet A? Donating to Planned Parenthood subjects you to 100 hours of Community Service? Make a Law that God is a White Male?
RE: But I want to see and hear  
section125 : 8/31/2015 4:02 pm : link
In comment 12445183 Headhunter said:
Quote:
Make a Law that God is a White Male?


He is.....
Buford I read what you linked I know it was over Sanders/Clinton  
Stu11 : 8/31/2015 4:07 pm : link
it was a progressive blog that who knows if it speaks for anywhere near the majority of a national union(no some informal facebook poll doesn't impress me). You are talking about on a national level and millions of members when you talk about Randy Weingarten and the UFT. They probably should stay out of the primaries, but at the end of the day they and the vast majority of their members will support the democratic candidate for president. You and Scott Walker are wrong about municipal unions bankrupting cities and states. They are convenient scapegoats for politician's whose base eats it up. Unions have been giving back in ccontracts for years. The teacher's union I am part of has given back days and financial benefits such as the % of healthcare paid for multiple contracts now. That is fine. It needs to be done. Unions are responsible when it comes to negotiations. Sure they look out for their members, that is their job. However when fair good faith negotiations take place deals are worked out. When a governor/mayor comers at unions blaming them 100% for severe government mis-management of finances then a nothing gets accomplished. If you think the Rahm Emmanuel situation in Chicago was about a city going bankrupt you need to do some research. It was about him doing the bidding for his corporate friends.
RE: RE: RE: The irony is that public sector unions...  
buford : 8/31/2015 4:09 pm : link
In comment 12445147 BeerFridge said:
Quote:
In comment 12445143 buford said:


Quote:


In comment 12445115 manh george said:


Quote:


are on of the 3-4 key reasons why Republicans dominate at the state and local level. Taxpayers have no say in the fact that public pensions in many cases are vast overpromises, and they are rightfully pissed about it. The public sector union link with the Democrats is thus a
problem at the state and local level, but not at the national level.

Walker in Wisconsin and Kasich in Ohio had some valid arguments about the excess power of public sector unions. Their way of articulating those points was world-class incompetent. And of course in Walker's case, he tied Public Pension issues to Right to Work, largely on behalf of the Koch Brothers and their buddies. Kasich didn't attempt that, nor does he agree with it.



KOCH BROTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who spends more, Buford? Koch brothers or all unions combined? - ( New Window )


All unions combined (just in the top 100 of donors) top the Koch's at 1,207,000,000.
RE: RE: But I want to see and hear  
Deej : 8/31/2015 4:15 pm : link
In comment 12445188 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 12445183 Headhunter said:


Quote:


Make a Law that God is a White Male?



He is.....


And he lives in "real America". And is in talks with TLC for a show.
RE: RE: RE: RE: The irony is that public sector unions...  
BeerFridge : 8/31/2015 4:39 pm : link
In comment 12445207 buford said:
Quote:
In comment 12445147 BeerFridge said:


Quote:


In comment 12445143 buford said:


Quote:


In comment 12445115 manh george said:


Quote:


are on of the 3-4 key reasons why Republicans dominate at the state and local level. Taxpayers have no say in the fact that public pensions in many cases are vast overpromises, and they are rightfully pissed about it. The public sector union link with the Democrats is thus a
problem at the state and local level, but not at the national level.

Walker in Wisconsin and Kasich in Ohio had some valid arguments about the excess power of public sector unions. Their way of articulating those points was world-class incompetent. And of course in Walker's case, he tied Public Pension issues to Right to Work, largely on behalf of the Koch Brothers and their buddies. Kasich didn't attempt that, nor does he agree with it.



KOCH BROTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who spends more, Buford? Koch brothers or all unions combined? - ( New Window )



All unions combined (just in the top 100 of donors) top the Koch's at 1,207,000,000.



NOPE. That's the "All Cycles" number. That's 12 years of elections.

And this database you present just shows the money that needs to be reported. It doesn't show the 501c money, which is where the real money is spent nowadays. We don't know how much the Kochs, Unions or anyone is spending there - because of Citizen's United.

Btw, in terms of the public sector unions...  
manh george : 8/31/2015 4:59 pm : link
I was NOT making a political statement. I was simply observing that at the state/local level, Democrats have a problem because of the linkage between severe budgetary pressures and public sector pensions/OPEB, which are putting them in disfavor with voters who would otherwise tend to vote Democratic on a lot of issues. On the single issue of pensions/OPEB, state and local governments vastly overpromised to begin with, and then made it worse (in many states) when the stock market had rums which made it look as if there were surpluses. Then, interest rates collapsed, we had the Great Recession, and post-retirement life expectencies increased, and the taxpayers were left holding the bag. They took all of the risks, employees took none, and now the courts are generally not letting state and local governments--on behalf of their taxpayers-- cut back on the overpromises. The creates a problem for Democrats specifically. Does that justify Walker and CXhrisite fucking teachers? Of course it doesn't. That wasn't my point, in the slightest.

And Buford, when you haven't the vaguest fucking idea what you are talking about, you would do all of us, including yourself, a favor by staying away from the conversation. I'm not comparing Koch brothers spending nationally to union spending. It is a dead-on fact that Walker, in particular, got considerable help in his recall election and re-election from the Kochs and their buddies, and that they continue to support him (link). The Kochs have made impressive headway in a handful of pockets nationwide--see North Carolina if you want a major example--and the unions couldn't do thing one about it. In fact in NC it wasn't even ABOUT unions.

This has absolutely nothing to do with aggregate Koch spending nationwide or union spending nationwide.

But, of course, you couldn't comprehend that if we spotted you 50 IQ points and a two day head start.

And people wonder why you get picked on.
Link - ( New Window )
runs...  
manh george : 8/31/2015 5:00 pm : link
not rums. Puerto Rico has rums, and it didn't help.
Hey MG, fuck off  
buford : 8/31/2015 5:10 pm : link
I wasn't responding to you. If you don't want to read my posts, don't read them. You insufferable snob.
Yeah, I'm a snob.  
manh george : 8/31/2015 5:12 pm : link
You make it so easy.
RE: Btw, in terms of the public sector unions...  
njm : 8/31/2015 5:18 pm : link
In comment 12445314 manh george said:
Quote:
Does that justify Walker and CXhrisite fucking teachers? Of course it doesn't. That wasn't my point, in the slightest.



Well with Christie is was a question of who gets fucked over, the teachers who at early retirement in their 50's got 100% state paid for family health insurance or the state's taxpayers who were going to pay for it. Yes, they were promised that, but it was so typical of politicians (neither party is innocent) who traded future benefits that would be paid for after they were dead or out of office for short term electability.
I thought MG  
Headhunter : 8/31/2015 5:19 pm : link
was more hoity toity than an outright snob
No, that was Ayers.  
manh george : 8/31/2015 5:21 pm : link
He just fell down and hoity his toity.

I like to think of myself as a sufferable snob.
njm I agree it was both parties who are blame for this...  
manh george : 8/31/2015 5:23 pm : link
over the longer term. It's the Democrats who are paying more of a price, because they have become more closely aligned with the civil service unions in recent decades. By a lot.
RE: njm I agree it was both parties who are blame for this...  
njm : 8/31/2015 5:35 pm : link
In comment 12445353 manh george said:
Quote:
over the longer term. It's the Democrats who are paying more of a price, because they have become more closely aligned with the civil service unions in recent decades. By a lot.


That's because they generally choose to try to raise taxes rather than reduce benefits. And the taxpayers look at it and say: "Really, health care plans with no employee/retiree contribution and my taxes are going up to pay for it?"
Healthcare is only one piece of compensation  
Deej : 8/31/2015 6:01 pm : link
Lots of government workers take those jobs because of the non-wage benefits. They turn down higher wage jobs for better benefits with the government (often with lower overall comp). My wife was one, though she ended up leaving her government job after a few years.

You cant look at healthcare spend in a vacuum. The gold plated plans may be a substitute for market competitive wages.
Deej, that was the case, once upon a time...  
manh george : 8/31/2015 6:05 pm : link
and was the excuse behind gold-plated benefits, including pensions especially. Now with so many talented people unemployed or (especially) underemployed, the trade-off isn't what it once was. And the value of a vested pension has exploded in state and local governments, while many corporations have dumped theirs.

Teachers in many cases are still underpaid, but pensions are a lousy way to offset that.
RE: Deej, that was the case, once upon a time...  
Deej : 8/31/2015 6:20 pm : link
In comment 12445412 manh george said:
Quote:
and was the excuse behind gold-plated benefits, including pensions especially. Now with so many talented people unemployed or (especially) underemployed, the trade-off isn't what it once was. And the value of a vested pension has exploded in state and local governments, while many corporations have dumped theirs.

Teachers in many cases are still underpaid, but pensions are a lousy way to offset that.


Not my area of expertise. Your post doesnt make any sense to me. Are you suggesting that we reduce benefits and increase wages? Or reduce teacher benefits and hold wages constant? Because the first one is no savings, and the second one is to effectively pay teachers less. But we already have a hard time recruiting teachers as is -- I saw a study that said you cant get anyone in the top 1/3 of college grads to teach, and you cant get the middle 1/3 to teach in poor schools.

Compensation is compensation. What this fight really seems to be to me is a bunch of politicians/taxpayers who financed their kids educations with debt (future benefits) rather than pay the bill when the services were rendered (in the form of immediate wages or funding these benefits). And now they're trying to blame teachers for taking deferred benefits. Im more okay with changing the rules for new hires and recent hires (which is all that some districts are doing).
And putting teachers aside  
Deej : 8/31/2015 6:27 pm : link
I know that for lawyers (my field), the government way underpays for the best and brightest. Sure there are some government lawyers who are doing better on the inside than they could on the outside, but almost all government lawyers and judges make less in cash compensation than the thousands of junior associates at "big law" firms. Now a lot of these people like the power/prestige of government jobs or like the "do good" aspect. But things like job security and retirement benefits help make up some of the gap versus private sector wages.
RE: And putting teachers aside  
Dunedin81 : 8/31/2015 6:45 pm : link
In comment 12445441 Deej said:
Quote:
I know that for lawyers (my field), the government way underpays for the best and brightest. Sure there are some government lawyers who are doing better on the inside than they could on the outside, but almost all government lawyers and judges make less in cash compensation than the thousands of junior associates at "big law" firms. Now a lot of these people like the power/prestige of government jobs or like the "do good" aspect. But things like job security and retirement benefits help make up some of the gap versus private sector wages.


And quality of life. I know a number of attorneys working at DOJ who bust their asses, but you wouldn't compare their existence to that of the first year associate.
RE: Deej, that was the case, once upon a time...  
Dunedin81 : 8/31/2015 6:53 pm : link
In comment 12445412 manh george said:
Quote:
and was the excuse behind gold-plated benefits, including pensions especially. Now with so many talented people unemployed or (especially) underemployed, the trade-off isn't what it once was. And the value of a vested pension has exploded in state and local governments, while many corporations have dumped theirs.

Teachers in many cases are still underpaid, but pensions are a lousy way to offset that.


Compensation varies widely at the state and local level. Some teaching and law enforcement salaries and benefits packages are very competitive, others are not. To insure my family on my county's healthcare plan would cost me more than 1/4 of my take-home pay. For the majority of county law enforcement it's more than 1/3. Other counties have comparable salaries but out of pocket for healthcare is from 2/3 to 1/2 ours. Other counties have higher salaries and the more competitive benefits packages.
Biglaw  
Metnut : 8/31/2015 6:56 pm : link
firms routinely fire associates, often because of reasons completely unrelated to associate performance. Government lawyers have much more job security and many would opt for that security over the massive salary biglaw lawyers make.
RE: RE: And putting teachers aside  
Mike from SI : 8/31/2015 7:02 pm : link
In comment 12445463 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12445441 Deej said:


Quote:


I know that for lawyers (my field), the government way underpays for the best and brightest. Sure there are some government lawyers who are doing better on the inside than they could on the outside, but almost all government lawyers and judges make less in cash compensation than the thousands of junior associates at "big law" firms. Now a lot of these people like the power/prestige of government jobs or like the "do good" aspect. But things like job security and retirement benefits help make up some of the gap versus private sector wages.



And quality of life. I know a number of attorneys working at DOJ who bust their asses, but you wouldn't compare their existence to that of the first year associate.


Some of the DOJ and public service lawyers are in it for the prestige so that they can boost future reputation/earnings. (Or, e.g., to get to do more hands-on trial work earlier in their careers.) I therefore don't think law is a great comp for other fields.
I'm not a lawyer so I'm talking out of my ass  
Bill L : 8/31/2015 7:05 pm : link
But a lawyer friend told me that many people take shit-paying ADA jobs because the trial experience makes them hugely desirable and highly paid in their next job.
My own union got us those nice civil service bennies  
Bill L : 8/31/2015 7:08 pm : link
But always goes crazy in the next negotiation for higher wages because there (supposedly) isn't parity with the same jobs in the private sector. Based on discussion here then, that seems highly hypocritical.
What I am suggesting Deej...  
manh george : 8/31/2015 7:20 pm : link
is that with the present value of lifetime pension benefits vastly higher--in most cases--than was originally expected, civil service employees be required to:

--Take a sharp reduction in future cost of living increases;

--Take a modest reduction in annual payouts, especially in the extreme cases, such as police and fire who get over $100,000 a year and then can double dip with another job; and

--Permit new employees to come in under a much less expensive system.

Only wherever any of that has been tried, the unions went to court, and a a large proportion of cases, the courts have usually insisted on the status quo.

So, taxpayers take all the burden, until the bridges fall into the river, potholes devoure roads, and water/sewer systems fall apart because there is no money to pay for infrastructure, and the economic value of a governmental entity begins to collapse. It's called a death spiral.

And Democrats will continue to take it in the neck at the state and local level so long as they support this mess.
Most evidence has shown that for the highly educated  
kicker : 8/31/2015 7:30 pm : link
(graduate degrees, including law) they are, on average, paid more highly than comparable private sector workers.

If you couple this with what are, on average, more generous non-wage benefits and much less employment turnover, it appears that federal workers are in a much better position than private workers.

A note: one explanation for this is that federal workers are, en masse, slightly above average in terms of ability. There is little deviation in pay between the workers in this system, meaning that the private sector comprises 2 groups: below average and superior. Since, by simple numbers, below average comprises the majority of the private sector workforce, the wage gap can be explained away almost wholly.

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