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NFT: Phillies at Mets Game 1 thread

sshin05 : 8/31/2015 3:14 pm
Mets

Granderson RF
Cespedes CF
Murphy 1B
Wright 3B
Johnson 2B
dArnaud C
Conforto LF
Flores SS
Colon RHP
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92  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 8:05 am : link
k's in 427 ab's in low-A ball likely = hilariously bad vs. MLB pitching April 2016. They may yet protect him (The Twins protected Kepler last year) but it would be somewhat unusual.
Missed Lindsay  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 8:08 am : link
Solid game for Lindsay, 1 for 3 with a walk (and 2 Ks). His numbers in Brooklyn so far: 3 for 20 with 3 walks, 8 Ks, 23 plate appearances.
Lindsay  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 8:11 am : link
pretty solid debut all things considered. The K's are something to watch though (29 in 89 ab's)
Mets go 15-16 for Sept  
Headhunter : 9/1/2015 8:15 am : link
The Nats go 21-9. Think it happens?
The  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 8:16 am : link
race is ova! Mets are going to the playoffs wooo
Knapp  
Mike in NY : 9/1/2015 8:17 am : link
Started the year in A+ but got hit very hard
RE: Mets go 15-16 for Sept  
pjcas18 : 9/1/2015 8:18 am : link
In comment 12446093 Headhunter said:
Quote:
The Nats go 21-9. Think it happens?


anything is possible, but no I don't think that happens.

the Mets pitching should be able to prevent prolonged losing streaks. And when you get a gem like last night from Colon it makes long losing streaks that much more unlikely. If Niese can get out of his 3-start funk it would make it that much more unlikely.

Actually I see the Mets going  
Headhunter : 9/1/2015 8:21 am : link
20-11 or 19-12 at worst
RE: Knapp  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 8:24 am : link
In comment 12446098 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
Started the year in A+ but got hit very hard


It was 13.2 total innings for a polished college starter. Very strange that was enough to stick him in Savannah the rest of the year (2nd full season there)
I believed this before last night  
Ten Ton Hammer : 9/1/2015 8:27 am : link
but last night makes it a discussion point.

You starting Colon in a playoff game?
I just don't want things to even  
pjcas18 : 9/1/2015 8:29 am : link
get close enough to have to sweat it out and I'd love for the Cubs and Giants to lose and get the Mets some breathing room with a WC fallback (though I hate the WC now).

Speaking of deadline acquisitions...the Bluejays "announced" they were going for it this year, made some bold moves (Tulo/Price) and it's paid off big time. They went 21 - 6 in August. One of the best months in baseball history.

their run differential is +191 which seems insane.

they turned an 8 game deficit into a 1.5 game lead since acquiring Tulo.

This is why I don't think anyone should be counting the Nats out.
There's basically no chance Colon is getting a postseason start.  
arcarsenal : 9/1/2015 8:31 am : link
The best case for him would be finding a spot in the pen.
RE: I just don't want things to even  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 8:33 am : link
In comment 12446120 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
get close enough to have to sweat it out and I'd love for the Cubs and Giants to lose and get the Mets some breathing room with a WC fallback (though I hate the WC now).

Speaking of deadline acquisitions...the Bluejays "announced" they were going for it this year, made some bold moves (Tulo/Price) and it's paid off big time. They went 21 - 6 in August. One of the best months in baseball history.

their run differential is +191 which seems insane.

they turned an 8 game deficit into a 1.5 game lead since acquiring Tulo.

This is why I don't think anyone should be counting the Nats out.


Deadline has passed and the Nats just lost Span for the season and Strasburg is again hurt. Blue Jays "going for it" and the Nats situations don't seem at all parallel to me
RE: I just don't want things to even  
arcarsenal : 9/1/2015 8:34 am : link
In comment 12446120 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
get close enough to have to sweat it out and I'd love for the Cubs and Giants to lose and get the Mets some breathing room with a WC fallback (though I hate the WC now).

Speaking of deadline acquisitions...the Bluejays "announced" they were going for it this year, made some bold moves (Tulo/Price) and it's paid off big time. They went 21 - 6 in August. One of the best months in baseball history.

their run differential is +191 which seems insane.

they turned an 8 game deficit into a 1.5 game lead since acquiring Tulo.

This is why I don't think anyone should be counting the Nats out.


The Blue Jays significantly improved their team by adding Price and Tulo. The Nats didn't do anything like that and actually re-lost Span for the year. The Papelbon acquisition seems to have done nothing but piss people off.
Giants  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 8:34 am : link
added de Aza, nice depth move
Should  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 8:35 am : link
also be noted the Jays run differential was fantastic even before their run which suggested a coming record correction (maybe not on this level) but that they were extremely "unlucky"
I know the deadline has passed  
pjcas18 : 9/1/2015 8:41 am : link
but like Mets getting Wright back Rendon missed a big chunk of the season and is now back and playing better, Desmond has been much better in August and how long will that pitching staff under-perform?

I wasn't saying the Nationals acquired anyone to make them better, just the players/team they have, has under-performed and it would not shock me at all to see them reel off a 21 - 6 month (or close to it).

RE: There's basically no chance Colon is getting a postseason start.  
Ten Ton Hammer : 9/1/2015 8:41 am : link
In comment 12446124 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
The best case for him would be finding a spot in the pen.



Well if Thor is at his innings limit and is going to the pen, what's the rotation going to look like, Harvey, DeGrom, Niese and ____?
It would shock me  
Headhunter : 9/1/2015 8:48 am : link
They are slightly better than mediocre. They are done, stick a fork in them. Scherzer has not been the same since his no-no. Ross is solid. Zimmerman better than average. Strasburg is an injury waiting to happen. Gonzalez can only beat the Mets. Is Fister still in their rotation? Roark a one year wonder. They fucked up Storen by bringing in Paplebon. Their lineup with Harper kind of dangerous
RE: RE: There's basically no chance Colon is getting a postseason start.  
chris r : 9/1/2015 8:49 am : link
In comment 12446146 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
In comment 12446124 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


The best case for him would be finding a spot in the pen.




Well if Thor is at his innings limit and is going to the pen, what's the rotation going to look like, Harvey, DeGrom, Niese and ____?


Matz.
A nice article about Conforto in today's Post  
Ira : 9/1/2015 8:53 am : link
His numbers now are .293 .392 .537 .928 OPS
Link - ( New Window )
I believe the Mets are 20-9 in the month of August  
Canton : 9/1/2015 8:54 am : link
They've done that ten times in Mets history. Out of the ten , two of them were World championship seasons.
I wonder if "light hitting"  
pjcas18 : 9/1/2015 10:12 am : link
Guillorme may wind up not so light hitting (for average at least)


Quote:
Savannah Sand Gnats ‏@gnatsbaseball 1m1 minute ago

MVP! MVP! Luis Guillorme was named SAL MVP today! Guillorme leads the SAL in hits and average #LGG... http://fb.me/4LXdPqUYJ
RE: RE: RE: There's basically no chance Colon is getting a postseason start.  
schabadoo : 9/1/2015 10:21 am : link
In comment 12446166 chris r said:
Quote:
In comment 12446146 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:


In comment 12446124 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


The best case for him would be finding a spot in the pen.




Well if Thor is at his innings limit and is going to the pen, what's the rotation going to look like, Harvey, DeGrom, Niese and ____?



Matz.


I think it depends on Sept. A rookie with a few starts who's been out doesn't seem like a lock.
RE: I wonder if  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 10:31 am : link
In comment 12446364 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Guillorme may wind up not so light hitting (for average at least)




Quote:


Savannah Sand Gnats ‏@gnatsbaseball 1m1 minute ago

MVP! MVP! Luis Guillorme was named SAL MVP today! Guillorme leads the SAL in hits and average #LGG... http://fb.me/4LXdPqUYJ



Badler likes him but ability to hit for average has never been the question. The concern is the absolute lack of power ala Tovar. Great season thougu
.  
pjcas18 : 9/1/2015 10:53 am : link
Quote:
Anthony DiComo ‏@AnthonyDiComo 29s29 seconds ago

On the first day of Sept., the #Mets have hit their best playoff odds of the season: 93.5%, per Baseball Prospectus.
Guillorme  
CMicks3110 : 9/1/2015 11:07 am : link
at the very least, has gained some trade value iMO, i doubt he's our long-term answer, at any point in his career, at least with this regime
RE: .  
spike : 9/1/2015 11:17 am : link
In comment 12446479 pjcas18 said:
Quote:


Quote:


Anthony DiComo ‏@AnthonyDiComo 29s29 seconds ago

On the first day of Sept., the #Mets have hit their best playoff odds of the season: 93.5%, per Baseball Prospectus.



I like it better when it is 100%
Organizational playoff odds  
sshin05 : 9/1/2015 12:21 pm : link
Looks like its not only the parent club in the playoff hunt.
Link - ( New Window )
Conforto's defense  
sshin05 : 9/1/2015 12:46 pm : link
Looks like he's going to be a pretty decent defender in LF.

Quote:
...we were all told he was a below average defender and yet he's posted a +3 DRS so far which across a full season equals a +20.3 defensive UZR. A mark only the most elite of OF'ers even sniff.

Link - ( New Window )
SportsClubStats  
pganut : 9/1/2015 1:31 pm : link
Which I use a lot for hockey, has the Mets at a 96% chance of making the playoffs.
SportsClubStats - MLB - ( New Window )
RE: Conforto's defense  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 1:50 pm : link
In comment 12446782 sshin05 said:
Quote:
Looks like he's going to be a pretty decent defender in LF.



Quote:


...we were all told he was a below average defender and yet he's posted a +3 DRS so far which across a full season equals a +20.3 defensive UZR. A mark only the most elite of OF'ers even sniff.

Link - ( New Window )


Not sure we were told he would be "below average". More like average ish. Also be careful with crazy small sample sizes for defense. Remember everyone was citing DRS and UZR at SS for Wilmer as proof he was actually "good" at SS. This year he's at -8 DRS, and -4.2 UZR/150.
From  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 1:52 pm : link
June-

Conforto's profile is left field only, but he's far from a butcher out there. He has good instincts in the outfield that cover for his lack of foot speed. His arm is fringy, but plays up due to the accuracy of his throws. He throws accurately on the run and against his body. He is a better athlete than his stocky build suggests and should be serviceable in left field for a while, though it is likely that the body eventually forces him to first base in his thirties. There isn't much else to say about his glove, but in this instance that isn't really a bad thing.

Glove (LF)

Current Grade: 50 (Average)

Future Grade: 50 (Average)


Seems pretty accurate to me
Muno  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 1:56 pm : link
has been outrighted for EYJ, 1 more has to go once Goeddel returns. Horrendous O'Flaherty would be one possibility
.  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 2:03 pm : link
AAA-Verrett
AA-Ynoa
A+ Reyes
A+ TBD
Savannah-Oswalt
Savannah- Flexen
BK- Jacobson
Kingsport- Uceta (Kingsport debut)
..  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 2:06 pm : link
TJ today for UDFA Keaton Aldridge

Keaton Aldridge ‏@Kaldi_23 4h4 hours ago Queens, NY
Brand new elbow coming my way in a couple hours

I believe he's #22 in terms of pitchers with TJ in the Mets organization.
Reed  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 2:15 pm : link
Hes a big strong guy with a bad delivery. If you throw strikes with that kind of delivery its called deception, if you dont throw strikes, its called a bad delivery, one MLB scout told The Posts Kevin Kernan. Hes a fastball-slider guy who cant throw enough strikes. I dont think he had that mentality to pitch the ninth inning. Hes going to walk people. His arm strength isnt what it was he used to be in the mid to upper 90s and that helped him get by. But if he can clean up that delivery a bit, he can be effective and [Mets pitching coach] Dan Warthen has been a miracle worker over there.
One NL executive also thinks Reeds power and adjusted mechanics will help the Mets.
Physical kid with arm strength. Has shown a plus slider in the past. Best when he pitches down in the zone, the exec said. Obviously didnt have much success in Arizona but seemed to have straightened out his delivery since he was recalled from Triple-A.
.  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 2:24 pm : link
Adam Rubin ✔ @AdamRubinESPN
Bobby Parnell officially activated from DL with Erik Goeddel, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Steven Matz. So 7 extra players (EY, Plawecki, Campbell).
RE: RE: Conforto's defense  
sshin05 : 9/1/2015 2:26 pm : link
In comment 12446967 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12446782 sshin05 said:


Quote:


Looks like he's going to be a pretty decent defender in LF.



Quote:


...we were all told he was a below average defender and yet he's posted a +3 DRS so far which across a full season equals a +20.3 defensive UZR. A mark only the most elite of OF'ers even sniff.

Link - ( New Window )



Not sure we were told he would be "below average". More like average ish. Also be careful with crazy small sample sizes for defense. Remember everyone was citing DRS and UZR at SS for Wilmer as proof he was actually "good" at SS. This year he's at -8 DRS, and -4.2 UZR/150.


I realize its sample size, but up to now his defense isn't so bad. So i should have said, he "might" be a decent defender.
I  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 2:28 pm : link
think more likely than not he IS a decent defender. I'm simply saying that's pretty consistent with what the scouts have said for a while. The SSS is very likely overrating his defense like it did with Wilmer, that's all. He reminds me a bit of Matt Holliday out there. Kinda a weird build, not quick but moves reasonably well and gets to what he needs to.
RE: .  
speedywheels : 9/1/2015 2:30 pm : link
In comment 12447063 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Adam Rubin ✔ @AdamRubinESPN
Bobby Parnell officially activated from DL with Erik Goeddel, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Steven Matz. So 7 extra players (EY, Plawecki, Campbell).


So the only bullpen help is Goeddel (IMO, Parnell is a liability)? What about Alvarez?
I can see  
sshin05 : 9/1/2015 2:35 pm : link
him being not bad as a defender. Kinda has the football build he probably inherited from his dad. We'll see how he turns out, hopefully better than expected.
RE: RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 2:36 pm : link
In comment 12447086 speedywheels said:
Quote:
In comment 12447063 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Adam Rubin ✔ @AdamRubinESPN
Bobby Parnell officially activated from DL with Erik Goeddel, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Steven Matz. So 7 extra players (EY, Plawecki, Campbell).



So the only bullpen help is Goeddel (IMO, Parnell is a liability)? What about Alvarez?


Alvarez is eligible to return on Thursday. Verrett likely comes up for Thor's spot starts.
Cespedes  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 2:43 pm : link
shoulder is something to monitor. Last 8 games

.188/.297/.531
Gomez  
Deej : 9/1/2015 2:46 pm : link
hitting singles. Still not doing much though, that meaningless Yankees homer aside.
RE: I  
Ten Ton Hammer : 9/1/2015 3:33 pm : link
In comment 12447081 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
think more likely than not he IS a decent defender. I'm simply saying that's pretty consistent with what the scouts have said for a while. The SSS is very likely overrating his defense like it did with Wilmer, that's all. He reminds me a bit of Matt Holliday out there. Kinda a weird build, not quick but moves reasonably well and gets to what he needs to.


It sounds weird to be saying this, but since his mobility and speed aren't going to get better (you'd think), is he looking at a different position later in his career? 1B?
RE: RE: I  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 4:21 pm : link
In comment 12447266 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
In comment 12447081 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


think more likely than not he IS a decent defender. I'm simply saying that's pretty consistent with what the scouts have said for a while. The SSS is very likely overrating his defense like it did with Wilmer, that's all. He reminds me a bit of Matt Holliday out there. Kinda a weird build, not quick but moves reasonably well and gets to what he needs to.



It sounds weird to be saying this, but since his mobility and speed aren't going to get better (you'd think), is he looking at a different position later in his career? 1B?


I'm not too concerned about an eventual move to 1b anytime soon. If it ever happens it will either be late career or simply to fit in another superior defensive OF/another bat in general.
RE: I  
arcarsenal : 9/1/2015 4:23 pm : link
In comment 12447081 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
think more likely than not he IS a decent defender. I'm simply saying that's pretty consistent with what the scouts have said for a while. The SSS is very likely overrating his defense like it did with Wilmer, that's all. He reminds me a bit of Matt Holliday out there. Kinda a weird build, not quick but moves reasonably well and gets to what he needs to.


"Reasonably well" is getting close to "pretty good".... careful now! :)
Presumably  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 4:34 pm : link
Thor's spot for a start

Mike Vorkunov ‏@Mike_Vorkunov 30m30 minutes ago
Matz will pitch "sometime soon," TC says. Mets won't go to a 6 man rotation
..  
DanMetroMan : 9/1/2015 5:11 pm : link
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Vic Black has been outrighted off the 40-man roster to Las Vegas.

(he will be a FA after the season if not added back to the 40 man)
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