NFT: First poll that shows Carson well ahead.

Carson will ultimately fade too, because he is extreme and having an MD after your name and a pleasant disposition doesn't cure that. Rubio needs to be energetic without putting his foot in his mouth. He has some negatives with the base and some disadvantages in the general (his comments on abortion, absent qualification, put him in a distinct minority) but he is probably the most electable and most desirable of the Republican candidates.

and I don't understand how someone who can be so talented and acclaimed in such a prestigious field that required such rigorous academic study could come across as so simple-minded and unscientific elsewhere.

6000 years old. The current crop of political aspirants on both sides of the aisle is terrifying. I would wager that any one of us here can find someone in their circle of acquaintances whom many of us believe would be better suited to run the country.

"Stuff happens" response to Oregon did not serve him well. Its Rubio's time to step up. We will see if he has it in him...

In comment 12521861 natefit said:

Quote:

"Stuff happens" response to Oregon did not serve him well. Its Rubio's time to step up. We will see if he has it in him...

I think Jeb sucks, but cribbing that quote to suggest that his response to a mass shooting was simply to say "stuff happens" was unfair.

In comment 12521857 oghwga said:

Quote:

6000 years old. The current crop of political aspirants on both sides of the aisle is terrifying. I would wager that any one of us here can find someone in their circle of acquaintances whom many of us believe would be better suited to run the country.

Carson isn't a creationist, is he? For an MD he has some problems with the whole science thing, if so.

I understand his appeal but under finer scrutiny I don't think he can take it all.

In comment 12521862 Dunedin81 said:

Quote:

In comment 12521861 natefit said: Quote: "Stuff happens" response to Oregon did not serve him well. Its Rubio's time to step up. We will see if he has it in him... I think Jeb sucks, but cribbing that quote to suggest that his response to a mass shooting was simply to say "stuff happens" was unfair.

What was the entire quote? I had been ignoring that hoopla as at worst, mis-speaking.

Last 2 polls this week had Trump 9 and 10 points ahead nationally.

He wandered from the talking points and came across as incredibly callous. He's done.

The NBC poll only had Trump ahead by one. Others much wider, of course. The average margin for the last 9 polls by distinct major pollsters is 5.5%, which is still down a fair amount (link).
Link - ( New Window )

at how bad a campaigner Bush is. Not nearly as strong as his brother, although he had a solid reputation as a governor in a hard-to-manage state.

.

But I still think he is inevitable. Trump and Carson will fall away. Rubio and Fiorna aren't likely to beat him. I can't even remember the names of any of the other 2831705374 candidates that still haven't dropped out yet.

In comment 12521857 oghwga said:

Quote:

6000 years old. The current crop of political aspirants on both sides of the aisle is terrifying. I would wager that any one of us here can find someone in their circle of acquaintances whom many of us believe would be better suited to run the country.

I think comparing people on one side of the aisle who may have policy preferences that you disagree with, to complete maniacs, dimwits and billionaire clowns without a single clue about anything outside of real estate, golf courses, bad TV shows and young foreign models, is a bit unfair. You may not like Hilary Clinton but she's not a fanatic or a dummy and she has valid experience and knowledge about the world. There is something terrifying about trump and/or Carson leading any poll at any time. I almost feel badly for reasonable conservatives who have to choose between such an embarrassing list. How is it possible that there is literally no one more appealing and capable than that selection of characters?

"Stuff happens" and leave it at that. There is little comfort for a potential Commander in Chief to respond that stuff happens and then he doubled down when asked to clarify. In our heads we know that these events are impossible for a President to prevent because he is not Superman and fly to the scene. But you want the President to get angry and tell us something has to be done, that is what you expect, not stuff happens. Bush is dead but is too wrapped up in this delusion that he has a real shot

I see a very dangerous man that can win by being nice reasonable devoutly religious tell his rags to riches story and not offend anyone. Just keep telling his story over and over and let people come away feeling good about him and in turn theirselves. But there is no there there, just ad hoc cliched responses to real issues and a whole lot of I don't knows thrown in

began his response with "Its a horrible horrible thing that has happened..."

Separately, the GOP has a real problem. Wealthy moderate Republicans I know here in NYC are terrified as they saw Bush or perhaps Kasich as their shot. Its like their party has deserted them. They tell me they wish Bloomberg would get in. Dems I know here are disillusioned with HRC personally but will hold their noses and vote for her unless Joe gets in.

Any Carson supporters here? Is it just the rhetoric? By no means could it be his stage presence and he's put his foot in his mouth more than once over the past year or so that would undoubtedly hurt him down the road.

Zero chance he's in this spot in three months so what's the point?

TRUMP is America's last hope...If he is not our next president, leave this country.

When Gov.Christie was ahead of Ms.Clinton in the polls the press destroyed him with Bridgegate.I have read one of Carson's books.They are well written and completely without malice.He portray's the US the way I see it as a country where people who work hard can succeed and does not buy into the idea that the rich suppress the poor and the whites suppress everyone else.The press tries to make him out to be a fool.You don't get honors at Yale and the University of Michigan Medical School by being a fool.You don't advance to chief of pediatric neurosurgery at one of the best hospitals in the world by being a fool or not understanding science.Carson is hurting himself badly by talking about social issues that the president does not really control rather than the need to stress moving ahead by hard work and education rather than government programs.The Carson Scholars fund is a real charity.He is a great man by any measure (although not the best candidate).Rubio,Kasich and Christie would have the best chance of competing with Hilary

The fact that Trump has lead polls for so long should be a sign of imminent apocalypse.

I'd hate to see another Clinton/Bush ticket - along with many others probably.

I usually vote for the Libertarian candidate out of principle, but haven't looked into their candidate yet.

I was torn between McClain and Obama, but at least felt that neither would be a disaster. Once Palin was chosen (probably not by McClain) thst choice was easy for me.

Overall I'm just depressed.

In comment 12521947 sjnyfan said:

Quote:

Any Carson supporters here? Is it just the rhetoric? By no means could it be his stage presence and he's put his foot in his mouth more than once over the past year or so that would undoubtedly hurt him down the road. Zero chance he's in this spot in three months so what's the point?

I think Carson's popularity is a combination of his appeal to social conservatives (still a force even if not as strong as in the past), and also the same displeasure with establishment politicians that's helping fuel Trump's and Fiorina's poll numbers.

- Bush has really low numbers, can he survive unless gifted the nomination through non democratic processes.
- Trump has backing from unions as they know he can work the jobs angle likely better any of the candidates, and also is not for illegal immigrants solely being awarded those jobs like the current administration.
- unions don't like Hillary, they like Biden
- Biden considering entering race in a few weeks.

Seems like the only way out our economic mess is growth, jobs, and smaller government. Saunders or establishment republicans and democrats will complete the destruction of our country. Hopefully our nation figures that out before it's too late. At some point it needs to be about Americans and not about corporate non-soverign interests, outsiders (illegals), etc.

the Republican slate was considered very deep. Now, it is only what they say that is piled very deeply. Trump may be hanging in mid-air, but Carson isn't even supported by air atoms and molecules. He doesn't believe in them.

Imo, the Republican candidate response to the shootings was sad. Look, you don't have to believe in major changes in gun laws, but is it too much to ask that registration laws be tightened, large ammo clips be outlawed, and other minor changes be considered? Even if that wouldn't have changed anything given the fact pattern in Oregon?

Btw, what kind of fuck-ups must the shooter's family have been to think he was sane enough to have 13 assorted firearms? They had to know at least how much he owned, and ought to at least have asked why. If they knew and did nothing, they should be arrested--and sued, of course.

Was talking about the Oregon shootings, you are plain wrong. He had already talked about the tragedy, expressed condolences and then was making a larger point that when you are a leader crisis occur all the time and people want to legislate every crisis, and his point was that government oversteps when it does that. I take no position on his underlying point, but this is the biggest bs out of context garbage I have seen in a long, long time.

He's in 3rd or 4th place with 1/10 to 1/9 of the vote.

If people think that the Trump, Carson, and Fiorina voters are going to say nevermind, we want an establishment candidate, you're nuts. First, I dont see these guys racing to drop out from a top 4 slot with no clear front runner other than Trump (who cant win -- see unfavorables). But if you count someones as sitting pretty once to neophytes drop out, it's Cruz. IMO he is the heir apparent to the Trump voter. And my guess is that a lot of the non-Trump/Carson vote is just looking for a winner after 8 years of Obama.

and the vast majority of those holding them do not qualify you for being the leader of the most important country on earth.

Is that Trump seems to get support from the Christian Right or at least Christians I know. I also see some of the same that support Carson like Trump and vice-versa. Outside of them being outsiders, it doesn't compute in my head.

I don't know if Trump is a Christian or not, don't really care but his behavior and actions historically are not what I would call traditional Christian to be kind. Do believe want to believe that bad?

I do wonder if many of the Carson voters go to Trump and vice versa should one drop out. I think that would be the case.

The love of Rubio is because of those near the top, he is the biggest threat as seen by democrats, the most realistic or at least the one people can fathom happening at this point.

The whole gun thing is impossible imo. I am pro gun rights in the logical sense. People kill people. Criminals will get guns no matter what. The 2nd amendment is debatable but not going to change and impossible to try at this point.

And you will never get the guns out of this country. I know too many people that live and breath this shit. I think its a little bizarre. I do enjoy shooting, served in the military, its fun. But there are plenty of people that just live and breath and talk about this stuff 24/7 like its fishing, boating, baseball, football etc..

I know the stats and the gun rights, 2nd amendment folks lose on all those arguments but it won't change anything.

Is there really anything that is going to prevent these things that can possibly be done? I am not sure. Canadians have plenty of guns, they just don't kill eachother as often.

The President is 100% right when he compares terrorism #s of deaths to gun violence deaths but if statistics drove change, like facts they don't seem to matter much.

In comment 12521988 PA Giant Fan said:

Quote:

Is that Trump seems to get support from the Christian Right or at least Christians I know. I also see some of the same that support Carson like Trump and vice-versa. Outside of them being outsiders, it doesn't compute in my head. I don't know if Trump is a Christian or not, don't really care but his behavior and actions historically are not what I would call traditional Christian to be kind. Do believe want to believe that bad? I do wonder if many of the Carson voters go to Trump and vice versa should one drop out. I think that would be the case. The love of Rubio is because of those near the top, he is the biggest threat as seen by democrats, the most realistic or at least the one people can fathom happening at this point.

no offense to some people but is it just possible that the base of that party aren't exactly highly evolved individuals? Like for instance, if there was a license to vote, they wouldn't pass the test ever in their lives.

You make a post like this , this is by far the only Poll I have seen that doesn't have Trump still in the lead .., are the other dozen Polls wrong ? I don't think so..,

Until we shrink the amount of candidates , We can not get an accurate read.


Please , those with less than 5% please drop out

In comment 12522010 Kevin(formerly Tiki4Six) said:

Quote:

You make a post like this , this is by far the only Poll I have seen that doesn't have Trump still in the lead .., are the other dozen Polls wrong ? I don't think so.., Until we shrink the amount of candidates , We can not get an accurate read. Please , those with less than 5% please drop out

There are serious candidates with <5% of the vote. And they'd post respectable poll numbers if the polls weren't skewed by flavors of the month.

If you look down three or four posts, I said this this is probably an outlier, but that his margin over Carson had come down significantly to 5.5% on the last nine polls. That is a very substantial drop, even in an environment as noisy as the current one.

Even provided a link.

In comment 12521862 Dunedin81 said:

Quote:

In comment 12521861 natefit said: Quote: "Stuff happens" response to Oregon did not serve him well. Its Rubio's time to step up. We will see if he has it in him... I think Jeb sucks, but cribbing that quote to suggest that his response to a mass shooting was simply to say "stuff happens" was unfair.

Unfair in that, that is exactly what he said? In context.... come on man he said it he meant it. Wagons were no meant to be driven only in circles.....

In comment 12521884 BurlyMan said:

Quote:

He wandered from the talking points and came across as incredibly callous. He's done.

As far as the worst tin eared comment from Jeb, this is barely top 5. I still have not stopped being pissed about the free stuff BS! The ONLY people in America who get free stuff are already rich enough to pay for the lobbyists who procured their free stuff for them. Oh and since the USSC apparently thinks corporations are people, they comprise the vast majority of "people" who get free stuff....

but they reported it as though he dismissed the news of a mass shooting with a shrug of the shoulders and "stuff happens" as opposed to him saying rather inartfully that crises happen and he as a former governor understood the need to be be ready to respond to them.

Again, I don't like Jeb, I don't want another Bush (or Clinton) in the White House, but the reporting on this clearly mischaracterized what he was saying.

Obviously Jeb cares about what happened. Anyone would. But it becomes something taken out of context to try and beat a guy up for when it is obviously not how he feels.....

In comment 12521980 Essex said:

Quote:

Was talking about the Oregon shootings, you are plain wrong. He had already talked about the tragedy, expressed condolences and then was making a larger point that when you are a leader crisis occur all the time and people want to legislate every crisis, and his point was that government oversteps when it does that. I take no position on his underlying point, but this is the biggest bs out of context garbage I have seen in a long, long time.

Come on, He was directly asked a question regarding if prayer would help stop these shootings prior to them happening, and this was his response:

Quote:

t’s a—we’re in a difficult time in our country, and I don’t think more government is necessarily the answer to this. I think we need to reconnect ourselves with everybody else. It’s very sad to see, but I resist the notion—and I had this challenge as governor, because we had—look, stuff happens. There’s always a crisis, and the impulse is always to do something, and it’s not necessarily the right thing to do.

You can't honestly sit here and claim that is taken out of context. I understand he is not really that callous and he was most likely buying time to get his thoughts together but yes he was talking specifically about the shootings. Where he really screws up is when he tried to salvage that quote but doubling down and saying:

Quote:

Asked afterward about the “stuff happens” comment, Mr. Bush said, “it wasn’t a mistake,” and requested that a reporter point out “what I said wrong.” “Things happen all the time,” Mr. Bush said. “Things. Is that better?”

THEN he attempts to use an analogy that is asinine, especially considering he did exactly what he was attempting to point out as being the wrong way to handle this:

Quote:

child drowned in a pool and the impulse is to pass a law that puts fencing around pools,” he said, “Well it may not change it. Or you have a car accident and the impulse is to pass a law that deals with that unique event. And the cumulative effect of this is, in some cases, you don’t solve the problem by passing the law, and you’re imposing on large numbers of people burdens that make it harder for our economy to grow, make it harder to protect liberty.”

Unfortunately for Jeb he did exactly that. He passed a law in 2000 called the "Preston de Ibern/McKenzie Merriam Residential Swimming Pool Safety Act.” which is named after a child who drowned in a pool without a fence.

He took a simple misspoken statement, and somehow turned that into one of the most bumbling silly ass attempts at spinning seen so far this cycle.

In comment 12522026 Dunedin81 said:
[quote] In comment 12522010 Kevin(formerly Tiki4Six) said:


Quote:


You make a post like this , this is by far the only Poll I have seen that doesn't have Trump still in the lead .., are the other dozen Polls wrong ? I don't think so..,

Until we shrink the amount of candidates , We can not get an accurate read.


Please , those with less than 5% please drop ou



There are serious candidates with <5% of the vo. And they'd post respectable poll numbers if the polls weren't skewed by flavors of the month. [/quot

Like who lol ?

There is a ways to go until the primaries. As of now I'm gravitating toward Rubio. He has a blend of youth and experience. He'll be aggressive attacking the debt and supporting business. He'll take an international leadership role that America must embrace or suffer the consequences in the long term. He's hungry to change America for the better.

15 minutes and fade into history. Carly may have a shot at veep. Rubio and Kasich will be the one's fighting for the nomination at the end.

Other than his father and brother being presidents and governors first what exactly makes him presidential?

Can someone explain Hillary Clinton? The one time that she tried to make her own name in politics she failed miserably and was chased out of Washington. Then she found Bill and blackmailed him into marriage (not my words his) and found new success as First Lady of Arkansas. Her marriage license is her resume.

I refuse to give either of those two credit for their family members success.

The Democrats know none of their other candidates can win. Like it or not we all will be looking at a Republican president

...HRC has eight years in the Senate and four years as Secretary of State. And she wasn't exactly baking cookies from 1975-2000. Her biggest failures, like Hillarycare and WMD-gate, seem to have taught her valuable lessons. She has been siting at the grown-up table for a very long time. Love her or hate her (I'm lukewarm), she's plenty qualified.

For the first 200 years of the republic, marriage was the main path by which women achieved prominence in politics. Hillary is part of a transitional generation in that regard. A lot of women I respect see Hillary ultimately eclipsing Bill as an important symbol of how far they have come. Whether that's a good reason to support her candidacy, I don't know. It seems to me that we could do a lot worse, and if there's a problem with HRC, it's not her resume.

As for the Bushes, the last one with a presidential resume was GHWB. I personally find their links to the Saudis more troubling than any of the skeletons in Hillary's closet; but my cynical side says that both sets of issues have been exaggerated by their opponents.

In comment 12521887 manh george said:

Quote:

at how bad a campaigner Bush is. Not nearly as strong as his brother, although he had a solid reputation as a governor in a hard-to-manage state.

Bush has the same problem as Romney in 2012. He's thinking ahead to the general election and it's causing him to suffer now. He wants to come off as the "serious" candidate in a field filled with a bunch of non-serious people - but at the same time he's had to show he has personality and a sense of humor, which is essential in the era of social media.

Bush is clearly most comfortable when he can just focus on policy, which may have served him well in the 20th century, but today's candidates are asked to comment on trending stories in the news, be viciously combative towards their opponents, and do improv on late shows and sketch comedies.

Bush likely won't last too much longer - he's trying to be something he's not and it's leading to all of these missteps. What's scary is that if Donald Trump even remotely sounded competent on policy issues he would be a certain nominee for the republicans.

What is Rubio's experience? Seems very similar to Obama, and a big knock on Obama was inexperience. Indeed, it's one of the reasons he didnt get my primary vote.

Yes, he got pulled to the right and stuff like self-deportation was a real problem in the general. But Romney's problem were two. First, he was that he was running against an incumbent, and in a country that still blamed the last president more than the sitting president for the woes. Second, it seemed like he went out of his way to play into the picture that the other side drew of him. He was painted as an out of touch rich hedge fund guy, and then when the microphone was in his hand just walked into it. 47% comment, corporations are people too, "not concerned about the very poor", liking being able to fire people, NASCAR team owner friends... the guy literally couldnt help coming off as Mr. Burns from the Simpsons.

I'll just wait until the primaries start to see a true front runner. The frustrating part of this field is the lack of true fiscal conservatives. I'm in a very small minority that supports Rand Paul but he is the only true fiscal conservative in this field. There are plenty of guys who are taking the social issues and running with them but the economy and our debt is the biggest issue in this race or at least it should be. I feel the Libertarian side of the party if more in tune with the independents and centrists and that's why Paul had the best shot of stealing voters from the Democrats. I'm aware not too many agree with me on that.

As well as the foreign policy exposure you receieve as a Senator. He also has credibility on the immigration issue which could lend him traction to get something done for a change. I never had an issue with Obama's experience, it was his ideology and foreign policy views I couldn't support.