NFT: First poll that shows Carson well ahead.

still in it, biding his time, waiting for everyone else to self destruct?

record as governor, and Flordia was considered well managed. Shrank government payroll, privatized... Left office with a 64% approval rating in purple state even though his brother was a deeply unpopular by then (and I suspect a lot of dems were disapproving as a proxy for saying no to Pres. Jeb!). On record alone, Bush should be running away with the establishment-willing voter. I have no earthly idea why he doesnt hammer these points.

As for Hillary, the Senate and State experience are significant. I dont understand the people who paint her has just a wife of a President.
Source: Des Moines register (puff piecey, but fact are facts) - ( New Window )

governor. He keeps saying that same line 'They called me Veto Corleone because I vetoed so many spending bills. But he's supported immigration reform, common core and, IMO, the chumminess between the Bushes and the Clintons and Bush fatigue are doing him in. Along with the very strong anti-establishment wave. He's really just another Romney.

he talks about those things. Some of it is more talk that show (likethe Veto C line, which isnt funny). If feel like if he rattled off the achievements, with numbers, it would be very powerful. Except Im not a GOP primary voter, so what do I know. I couldnt fathom voting for Trump or Carson even if I was conservative.

In comment 12522648 Dave M said:

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I'll just wait until the primaries start to see a true front runner. The frustrating part of this field is the lack of true fiscal conservatives. I'm in a very small minority that supports Rand Paul but he is the only true fiscal conservative in this field. There are plenty of guys who are taking the social issues and running with them but the economy and our debt is the biggest issue in this race or at least it should be. I feel the Libertarian side of the party if more in tune with the independents and centrists and that's why Paul had the best shot of stealing voters from the Democrats. I'm aware not too many agree with me on that.

Yes, there is a problem called herding in that polling entities refuse to believe things are happen, then you have the small data problem. Sometimes more data beats bigger/better algorithms. I think one of the more accurate firms from the last election used mainly web and some modified bayes algorithms with more data instead of making phone calls. If you want an example, look at what happened in Europe...the traditional polling methods were a disaster.

any other candidate in this field, but his 'stuff happens' quote was taken out of context from what I've read.

In comment 12521940 Headhunter said:

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"Stuff happens" and leave it at that. There is little comfort for a potential Commander in Chief to respond that stuff happens and then he doubled down when asked to clarify. In our heads we know that these events are impossible for a President to prevent because he is not Superman and fly to the scene. But you want the President to get angry and tell us something has to be done, that is what you expect, not stuff happens. Bush is dead but is too wrapped up in this delusion that he has a real shot

So you can't handle reality? You can't accept that "stuff" does happen that cannot not be predicted nor stopped? I'm tired of being lied to, maybe you are not. But I'd rather a candidate tell the truth or admit they don't have an answer then be lied too. I don't want to be placated. You already said you know that the President isn't omniscient, so you would rather be lied to. I don't believe that about you.

My question is whether he's made himself available to the media for interviews/publicity and been ignored or whether he's running one of the most inept campaigns in history.

They looked at this morning's poll releases on Morning Joe today and the one constant theme is just how poor Hillary does. The only candidate she consistently beats is Trump. Someone above said Bloomberg should run as a Democrat. I think, outside of Sander's hard core base he would sweep the field and be the prohibitive favorite in the general.

Please no. What a turd. Who would vote for him?

In comment 12526068 SanFranNowNCGiantsFan said:

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any other candidate in this field, but his 'stuff happens' quote was taken out of context from what I've read.

It wasn't out of context. His intention was not to make light of the tragedy. He just made terrible choice of words. But the discussion was clearly about gun violence in general and the Oregon shooting was talked about specifically.

if you can afford to stay in the race and can make it to the primaries in the southern states - things will change dramatically, IMO.

which is absolutely no different than the other Republicans in the race. The point about Bush is that you wouldn't expect a seasoned politician, from a long-standing political family, to be so remarkably consistent in his capacity to say things that make him look inadequate as a candidate.

That isn't something that would appear to have any chance of changing this late in his career, and his potential political and financial backers know it.

matters perhaps more than it should. Bill, George and Barack all had it, albeit different styles. Neither Jeb NOR Hillary have it. And thats why they are in trouble.

talked with Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson about his campaign, the economy, and how he would change the government if he were elected.'

An excerpt, full interview linked below ...

Quote:

Ryssdal: All right, so let's talk about debt then and the budget. As you know, Treasury Secretary Lew has come out in the last couple of days and said, "We're gonna run out of money, we're gonna run out of borrowing authority, on the fifth of November." Should the Congress then and the president not raise the debt limit? Should we default on our debt? Carson: Let me put it this way: if I were the president, I would not sign an increased budget. Absolutely would not do it. They would have to find a place to cut. Ryssdal: To be clear, it's increasing the debt limit, not the budget, but I want to make sure I understand you. You'd let the United States default rather than raise the debt limit. Carson: No, I would provide the kind of leadership that says, "Get on the stick guys, and stop messing around, and cut where you need to cut, because we're not raising any spending limits, period." Ryssdal: I'm gonna try one more time, sir. This is debt that's already obligated. Would you not favor increasing the debt limit to pay the debts already incurred? Carson: What I'm saying is what we have to do is restructure the way that we create debt. I mean if we continue along this, where does it stop? It never stops. You're always gonna ask the same question every year. And we're just gonna keep going down that pathway. That's one of the things I think that the people are tired of.

Full interview ... - ( New Window )

In comment 12526396 section125 said:

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Please no. What a turd. Who would vote for him?

Nobody. The only people who think he's a Republican are the extremely progressive NY republicans. He's not winning bet state even if they ran Anthony Weiner. Talk about a horrible candidate

and I don't doubt that he is personally brave. But his comments about the Oregon shooting were just fucking asinine. Idiotic, insulting false bravado. Plenty of well-trained people (military and law enforcement in particular) freeze or panic under lesser circumstances.

It'll be nice to see when his and Trump's idiocy are booted out of the race

if you liked his thoughts on Oregon...

Quote:

WASHINGTON — Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson suggests the Holocaust would have been “greatly diminished” if German Jews had been armed with guns.

Not sure how this applies to the 3 million pussies Polish Jews murdered in the Holocaust, including members of my family.
Link - ( New Window )

...

he's a fucking crazy person.

In comment 12535719 Deej said:

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he's a fucking crazy person.

Yeah people who had listened to what he said over the last couple years knew this was coming. Not necessarily like this, but in some form.

he was polite when he said it.

Gun control = Nazi Germany

Seriously, dumbest fucking brain surgeon ever.

Helluva lot smarter than me & 99% of BBIers. But he's insane.

From his somehow blaming OR shooting victims to this...dude is off the chart crazy.

Quote:

Ben Carson is a smart dude. Helluva lot smarter than me & 99% of BBIers. But he's insane.

Yes most people don't understand you can be brilliant savant in something but still be batsh*t crazy .. example see Bobby Fisher

He was not blaming the victims. He was asked what he would do if someone put a gun to him and asked him if he was a Christian. That's when he said he would try to stop the gunman or get a bunch of people to rush the gunman. There really isn't anything wrong with what he said. It's what those three guys on the train in France did. It's what passengers on flight 93 did. Again, he wasn't not saying it as a criticism of the victims, but as a possible alternative strategy in future incidents.

I don't agree with him on many issues, but I don't think he deserves the rabid vitriol that he gets.

there would be a lot more vitriol.

Dr. Ben Carson says President Barack Obama would have suffered a “seizure” if the gunman who targeted Christians as he shot up an Oregon college last week had singled out Muslims instead.

“He would've had a seizure over it,” Carson told Steve Malzberg in an exclusive interview that aired Tuesday on Newmax TV.

will grind to halt at some point, the tracks blocked in part by his ill-advised quotes.

It's all entertainment until the primaries start.

he brings it on himself. His handler, Armstrong Williams, is not helping matters either.

Having said that, there is an argument to fighting back when in those situations. For example, post 9-11 - I don't think you'll see passengers surrender control of a plane to armed terrorists. The problem is that it is always easier to argue what one would have done in those situations. The barrel of a gun has been known to alter one's perspective.

This guy's fantastic:

Quote:

"I have had a gun held on me when I was in a Popeye's organization" in Baltimore, the retired neurosurgeon told Karen Hunter on Sirius XM Radio, referring to the fried chicken fast-food chain. "Guy comes in, put the gun in my ribs. And I just said, 'I believe that you want the guy behind the counter,'" Carson.

Trump/Carson 2016. A Popeye's organization? Nice job of throwing the cashier under the bus.
CNN - ( New Window )

fondness for John Kasich and then scratch their heads at why you need a microscope to see his poll numbers. Fucking two-party system, how does it work?

You know, the one the GOP will grit it's teeth and settle for after Carson and Trump flame out under the weight of their craziness.

He's easily the most talented of the group at retail politics, he's a younger guy, he's a Latino. He has more plusses than anyone else, and his minuses are all policy-related. Most voters don't really care about policy all that much.

In comment 12536044 Greg from LI said:

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He's easily the most talented of the group at retail politics, he's a younger guy, he's a Latino. He has more plusses than anyone else, and his minuses are all policy-related. Most voters don't really care about policy all that much.

Yeah, maybe. He is a very strong campaigner.

what's the evidence for that. I think he presented well at the debate (he's got an angry streak in his speaking that I dont care for, but others do). But we're not seeing anything about his ground operations, interactions with folks.

This thing is WIDE open. Im starting to believe that Cruz will be a huge power broker, if not the nominee. I dont see the Trump supporters (people I think are more RV than LV) as going to an establishment candidate. Ditto Carson supporters. Not sure about Fiorina. I think Cruz could start picking up delegates.

On a retail level, I'd usually bet on governors. Christie in particular, though it appears as of now that GOP voters just dont want him.

In comment 12536013 BrettNYG10 said:

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This guy's fantastic: Quote: "I have had a gun held on me when I was in a Popeye's organization" in Baltimore, the retired neurosurgeon told Karen Hunter on Sirius XM Radio, referring to the fried chicken fast-food chain. "Guy comes in, put the gun in my ribs. And I just said, 'I believe that you want the guy behind the counter,'" Carson. Trump/Carson 2016. A Popeye's organization? Nice job of throwing the cashier under the bus. CNN - ( New Window )

What the fuck is going through the mind of someone who says this while running for president?

I kinda think Buford is actually right regarding the content of his statement - he didn't blame the victims, he just said what he would do in that situation. Doesn't change the fact that what he said is downright fucking idiotic, as if it's a good idea to rally people up to charge a mass shooter. The way he laughed it off was so WTF as well.

How could a neurosurgeon posit this as a viable solution for being caught in a shooting? "CMON GUYS LETS RUSH HIM!".

But hey, if he claims he'd charge a mass shooter, good for him. I doubt he actually would, but if Ben Carson actually did tackle a shooter, I'm sure people would consider him a hero. I just don't understand how he could imply that it'd be a good idea to rally up other people to charge him. Dude's living in a fantasy world.

why more people aren't concerned that he had absolutely no idea what the debt ceiling was.

That's more egregious than his throwaway wannabe-hero comments about the Oregon shooting, IMO. The Oregon shooting soundbyte is just that - a soundbyte. Not knowing what the debt ceiling is just shows how uninformed he is when it comes to the intersection of economics and public policy.

I don't watch debates because they're silly wastes of time, so I can't comment on that. What I do know is that, with potential voters, Rubio is an engaging speaker, that he has a very positive vibe inherent to his public persona, that he does pretty well on the "hey, this guy is a regular guy who cares about people like me" scale. I know that's unscientific, I'm just giving you my own impressions as someone who isn't a fan of his at all.

I'm not saying he's a gifted politician like Bill Clinton, but compared to the people he's running against he's just much better at it. I mean, Jeb is a tongue-tied dolt saddled with a last name that hurts him. Cruz comes off as smug and combative. Kasich is, at best, prickly, and he's been running the Huntsman lets-poke-at-the-base playbook. Fiorina has her fans, but I just don't consider her an actual contender for a variety of reasons.

And Christie will never, ever get anywhere. Not this year, not any year. 2012 was his window, when Republicans outside of the northeast only knew about him taking on public unions, and he passed it up. Now he's got a million negatives when it comes to the nomination - he was seen as overly chummy with Obama right before the election in 2012, he's a big government guy in the W mold, pro-gun control, got that Bridgegate aftertaste hanging around, and while it's superficial being a fat bastard doesn't help him either.

I think retail politics is a process. Building a ground operation, constituent services, and the glad handing. I just have no idea if Rubio is good or bad at that stuff.

Something about Rubio screams fraud to me. I cant put my finger on it -- just has my antennae up.

I do know that much.

but as I noted in the McCarthy thread, Rubio will report a terrible $8 million for the quarter. Way below the $20+ million that Carson and Sanders each raised.

He made people feel confident that he could represent them. Now he has the much more difficult task of showing he can lead at the highest level, and his somewhat Howdy Doodyish demeanor isn't helping.

Proof, other than the fund raising? In surveys, the former governor of Florida, and the sitting Senator from Florida, together in total are polling below Trump, IN FLORIDA.

Mind-boggling but true.

Again, this is just my guess - we're getting close to a point at which the moneybags guys who have been backing Bush are going to cut their losses, because that sorry sonofabitch is a dead man campaigning. He's through. When that happens, Rubio's the most likely beneficiary. Carson's not going to get the donor class' support regardless of what he may be raising at the moment.

In comment 12536804 Deej said:

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I think retail politics is a process. Building a ground operation, constituent services, and the glad handing. I just have no idea if Rubio is good or bad at that stuff. Something about Rubio screams fraud to me. I cant put my finger on it -- just has my antennae up.

It's the (R) next to his name.

Just one more palatable to the voters as well as the moneybags crew than his competitors.

Remember, at this point in 2008 McCain was pretty much dead in the water, both in the polls and in funding. I wouldn't count Rubio out at this point.

I dont think Bush, Walker, Kasich, Christie, Paul and several others give off that vibe. There is just something about Rubio that in my gut makes me think he's somehow a fraud.

Greg: Some truth to what you're saying, but I think part of the story for Bush being done was supposed to be Rubio overtaking him, not inheriting his support by default. I agree he seems done big picture, but the Rubio case is less compelling if he cant outdraw Carson.

In comment 12536938 Deej said:

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I dont think Bush, Walker, Kasich, Christie, Paul and several others give off that vibe. There is just something about Rubio that in my gut makes me think he's somehow a fraud. Greg: Some truth to what you're saying, but I think part of the story for Bush being done was supposed to be Rubio overtaking him, not inheriting his support by default. I agree he seems done big picture, but the Rubio case is less compelling if he cant outdraw Carson.

It's the (R) and the most popular name. This week Rubio, last week Carson, the week before Fiorina. If any of the other, sans Walker, start to gain traction, I would fully expect the vibe to start to pulsate.

In comment 12536936 Greg from LI said:

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Just one more palatable to the voters as well as the moneybags crew than his competitors. Remember, at this point in 2008 McCain was pretty much dead in the water, both in the polls and in funding. I wouldn't count Rubio out at this point.

I agree - I don't think he has the charisma of Bill Clinton or even 08 Obama, but he's a cut above everyone else (including the Dems) in terms of 'likability'. I think him or Kasich are the most likely to win a general too - and Rubio seems closer to the base than Kasich, so I expect him to get the nod.

He'll never get anywhere because he's running the Huntsman playbook. Taking smarmy potshots at your own voters is a sure way to stay in the single digits.