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NFT: Yankees Post Mortem - Where does it lead?

section125 : 10/7/2015 8:08 am
There a slew of sharp Yankees fans here with great insight into the minors who I hope will fill in some blanks.

Right now it hurts, but we were kidding ourselves if we thought they would win last night with that anemic offense that played through September.

Beyond the obvious that Drew and Ryan must not be in pinstripes next April, where do they go? I think Headley must be replaced. His bat died and he became a liability at third - every throw was an adventure. Beltran must go. He's simple incompetent in RF and his bat is not good enough to overcome that hole. It comes down to DHing vs Arod. Beltran may be the better choice because he switch hits, but they really need McCann to do some DHing next year, so they cannot afford to carry two part time DHs.

Pitching?
Tanaka, Pineda, Eovaldi and Severino are a lock. Nova is an enigma. Warren, they need to make up their minds SP or RP.
I'd cut loose CC.
Maybe get Mitchell going, he showed some decent talent.

If Nova was more consistent, I think they would be in very good shape with what they have already on the roster at SP.

Miller, Betances, Wilson are a lock. Did Shreve burn out or did the league figure him out? I think it was burnout.
Good Arms in AAA Lindgren, Pazos, Goody, Rumbelow, Pinder and even Bailey.
I think the pen will be a strength with what is already on the roster.
Miller and Betances just need to have the load reduced by about 10%. Miller with the sore arm midseason looked sharp up til the end and Betances fought through it despite too much use.

Catching is in excellent shape. Murphy is much better than I thought and I have no clue about Sanchez.

So have at it. What FA are there young enough to be around 5 to 8 years? Do they need to package Gardner to get a power bat in the corner outfield (hope not as I'm a big Gardner fan)?
What 3rd baseman are around, starting quality, to replace Headley? I don't see any at SWB or Trenton.

IMHO, the problem is offense, not pitching or defense.
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rut17 : 10/7/2015 8:12 am : link
Headley is not going anywhere. He has 3 years left on his deal and NO ONE is going to take that contract off our hands.
Look down a few  
Tuckrule : 10/7/2015 8:12 am : link
Threads. May want to delete this and copy and past your op
I think they would like to cut CC ...  
Beer Man : 10/7/2015 8:14 am : link
Like with A-Rod, his contract makes it difficult.
RE: Look down a few  
section125 : 10/7/2015 8:17 am : link
In comment 12531594 Tuckrule said:
Quote:
Threads. May want to delete this and copy and past your op


What the appreciation thread? Different topic.
RE: I think they would like to cut CC ...  
section125 : 10/7/2015 8:19 am : link
In comment 12531596 Beer Man said:
Quote:
Like with A-Rod, his contract makes it difficult.


Red Sox got rid of a number of big contracts. If they (Headley, Beltran even ARod) are non-performing, what difference does it make if they are paid to be gone, or sitting on the bench doing nothing?
How about solve the dysfunction between  
Essex : 10/7/2015 8:22 am : link
Tampa and NY. How about getting us a GM who will better utilize or cash assets.
RE: How about solve the dysfunction between  
section125 : 10/7/2015 8:26 am : link
In comment 12531609 Essex said:
Quote:
Tampa and NY. How about getting us a GM who will better utilize or cash assets.


Like what or whom? "Get us a better GM or better players" is throwing crap against the wall and hoping some will stick.
RE: RE: I think they would like to cut CC ...  
Tony in Tampa : 10/7/2015 8:28 am : link
In comment 12531605 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 12531596 Beer Man said:


Quote:


Like with A-Rod, his contract makes it difficult.



Red Sox got rid of a number of big contracts. If they (Headley, Beltran even ARod) are non-performing, what difference does it make if they are paid to be gone, or sitting on the bench doing nothing?


I think it would matter to Hal. He may decide to add pieces in order to fix structural weaknesses and overcome bad contracts, but it means blowing up the budget which, unlike his father, Hal has not been willing to do.
3B  
giants#1 : 10/7/2015 8:31 am : link
Jagielo in Trenton could be the longer term answer, though he has questions about his defense. But he missed most of 2015 with an injury so is probably a long shot to be anything more than a Sept call-up next season.

Personally, I like the young core they are starting to put together. In addition to Severino and the bullpen guys you mentioned, Bird, Ref, and Didi have the makings of a solid young IF. Ref/Didi likely profile as "above average" at best at their positions, but Bird could be a (not too distant) middle of the order bat.

As far as the OF, 2 spots are pretty locked up with Gardner/Ellsbury with Heathcott ready to step in if/when one of those 2 hits the DL. Beltran is just keeping RF warm until Judge is ready, hopefully by mid-season 2016.
Forgot about Judge.  
section125 : 10/7/2015 8:34 am : link
But I think he needs more ABs at AAA. His big bat would help a lot.
The problem with this offense is quite simple...  
Dunedin81 : 10/7/2015 8:36 am : link
outside of SS, where we have a good cost-controlled starter in Didi, and 2B, where we may or may not have the answer in Refsnyder, we have an immovable contract at every position. Yeah Gardner is potentially movable, yeah you might eat $ and get a team to take Teix or Beltran (though both have NTCs), but Ellsbury, Headley, A-Rod and McCann certainly can't be dealt unless the Yanks are going to eat virtually the whole of their contracts. So there isn't a ton of room for upgrade. After next year you lose Teix (presumably replaced with Bird) and Beltran (replaced either with Judge or with a big-ticket FA, possibly), but these contracts come off the books at a trickle. It isn't the money so much as the necessity of playing these guys.
RE: The problem with this offense is quite simple...  
section125 : 10/7/2015 8:42 am : link
In comment 12531640 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
outside of SS, where we have a good cost-controlled starter in Didi, and 2B, where we may or may not have the answer in Refsnyder, we have an immovable contract at every position. Yeah Gardner is potentially movable, yeah you might eat $ and get a team to take Teix or Beltran (though both have NTCs), but Ellsbury, Headley, A-Rod and McCann certainly can't be dealt unless the Yanks are going to eat virtually the whole of their contracts. So there isn't a ton of room for upgrade. After next year you lose Teix (presumably replaced with Bird) and Beltran (replaced either with Judge or with a big-ticket FA, possibly), but these contracts come off the books at a trickle. It isn't the money so much as the necessity of playing these guys.


I still think they need to rid themselves of some of these contracts whether by release or trade and eat some of the payments if necessary.

Teix is ok. He is still a good player. Either ARod or Beltran need to go. As well as ARod did, he was dying past mid-August. Beltran can only DH. He just doesn't want to play RF. I think at this point he is the better batter now. He can still hit and hit for average.
whoops just noticed there is a new thread  
Jay in Toronto : 10/7/2015 8:44 am : link
that focuses on what's ahead -- so maybe those comments (including my last one) really belong there.


Yanks Future - ( New Window )
It doesn't work that way in baseball...  
Dunedin81 : 10/7/2015 8:45 am : link
teams don't eat contracts like that because they're 100% guaranteed.
RE: It doesn't work that way in baseball...  
section125 : 10/7/2015 8:49 am : link
In comment 12531655 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
teams don't eat contracts like that because they're 100% guaranteed.


If they don't want to eat the contracts, then next year will be a mirror of this year, except Boston will be in 2nd place...
RE: RE: It doesn't work that way in baseball...  
Dunedin81 : 10/7/2015 8:53 am : link
In comment 12531669 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 12531655 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


teams don't eat contracts like that because they're 100% guaranteed.



If they don't want to eat the contracts, then next year will be a mirror of this year, except Boston will be in 2nd place...


It's just not how things are done. Now the Ellsbury benching (coupled with Gardy's shitty ABs) and some of the rumors about tension between Ellsbury and Joe make me wonder if they wouldn't look to trade him. They'd have to eat a fuckload of money (probably high eight figures) but he might waive an NTC if the relationship has soured that much.
I wonder if Gardner is trade bait  
Kyle in NY : 10/7/2015 8:57 am : link
simply because he's one of the few somewhat movable contracts.
I want Gardner to stay..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/7/2015 9:01 am : link
he plays balls out which kills him late in the year, but without the way he played in the Spring and Summer, the Yanks probably aren't even a WC team.
RE: RE: RE: It doesn't work that way in baseball...  
section125 : 10/7/2015 9:04 am : link
In comment 12531679 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12531669 section125 said:

It's just not how things are done. Now the Ellsbury benching (coupled with Gardy's shitty ABs) and some of the rumors about tension between Ellsbury and Joe make me wonder if they wouldn't look to trade him. They'd have to eat a fuckload of money (probably high eight figures) but he might waive an NTC if the relationship has soured that much.


Yep, I know it is not done that way, usually. Just it is the only way out of this. Whether they sit home and collect or sit on the bench and non-produce they still get paid.

As for Ellsbury, could care less if he is here any more. He is no better than Gardy except at steals. But at 3xs the salary he's not likely to be moved.
I think of all the big contracts CCs is the worst. At this point he is at best a #4 or #5.

So basically, the 2016 team is likely to be identical to the 2015 team.
We'll see what CC is...  
Dunedin81 : 10/7/2015 9:16 am : link
his post-DL starts were very good. His knee isn't likely to hold up for the rest of his deal though, and it isn't impossible that he either retires early or spends a fair amount of the next couple seasons on the DL.

This was a poorly constructed roster, no one doubts that. It's Cashman's fault for most of it, it was probably management's fault for the rest. What we have to hope is that we get enough out of the veterans and enough out of the kids that they can be competitive over the next couple years.
RE: We'll see what CC is...  
section125 : 10/7/2015 9:22 am : link
In comment 12531743 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
his post-DL starts were very good. His knee isn't likely to hold up for the rest of his deal though, and it isn't impossible that he either retires early or spends a fair amount of the next couple seasons on the DL.



I thought CC was ok, not good, after the DL and knee brace. Could he improve after getting healthy? Maybe so. The alcoholism had to rob him of some skills. But you'd be paying $25 mill for a #5.
Was there ever an explanation for sitting Ellsbury?  
Ten Ton Hammer : 10/7/2015 9:24 am : link
?
Trading pieces  
Shadow : 10/7/2015 9:26 am : link
Nova,Gardner,Sanchez,Beltran,Warren,Refsnyder,Mitchell.
These are the Players you can get something for.

Rotation Tanaka,Pineda,Evaldi,Severino,CC
I would add to this by picking up young lefty Chen from Baltimore and go 6 man rotation since our pitchers were all dead by Oct.
Shreve ran out of gas,you could see his velo and command fade as he threw more innings. He will be back.
Betances Miller Wilson is a great back end. Add Pazo Lingren
Not too many missing pieces in the pitching staff,

Tex Didi Mcann Murphy Arod Headley Elsbury are here Like it or not.
Bird has to play everyday to reach his potental.
That means AAA unless someone takes Tex.
2nd base is open Mateo is the future there but needs a few years. So you can get by with a Refsnyder till then but the team likes defense and Ref showed enough to be a very attractive trading piece. Short gap FA here or you can try Ackley.
Drew and Ryan should not be allowed back.
I would go after Zobreist in FA he can be the stop gap at 2nd can play RF and Even LF and Back up Didi or Hensley if he starts to suck again.
Bring up Judge for ST and see if he clicks
Cashman has to get some more offense use the players who are tradable and get some guys who can hit.

Hope Hal enjoys counting the money from last nights attendance because he wont see it again until he spends some money on the final pieces he needs.
Hello Cespedes
The rotation will..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/7/2015 9:29 am : link
be damn good, especially if a spot starter can be acquired. I'd replace CC in the rotation with Warren.

Pitching - provided it stays healthy - will keep the Yanks in the race next year. The bullpen should stay solid and that rotation is young and full of good arms.
RE: Was there ever an explanation for sitting Ellsbury?  
Greg from LI : 10/7/2015 9:29 am : link
In comment 12531759 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
?


Because he's terrible? Just spitballing.
I thank Alex for the season, then try to move him or just pay him off.  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 10/7/2015 9:31 am : link
I want Bird on the opening day roster and I'd like to try and keep Tex somewhat healthy by giving him a lot of DH ABs. In a perfect world, I'd DH Beltran and Tex.

I hope Pineda gets his shit together. 20 of his 27 starts were either 2 ERs or less or 5+ ERs.
RE: RE: Was there ever an explanation for sitting Ellsbury?  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 10/7/2015 9:32 am : link
In comment 12531773 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 12531759 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:


?



Because he's terrible? Just spitballing.


Yeah, that's what I would go with.
RE: The rotation will..  
Dunedin81 : 10/7/2015 9:32 am : link
In comment 12531772 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
be damn good, especially if a spot starter can be acquired. I'd replace CC in the rotation with Warren.

Pitching - provided it stays healthy - will keep the Yanks in the race next year. The bullpen should stay solid and that rotation is young and full of good arms.


It could be great or it could be a question mark. Severino should be good, though we've seen 9/1 call-ups struggle in the first full season. Tanaka hopefully can be counted on for a mid-3's ERA. Pineda has been up and down at times. CC is a question mark. The biggest question mark of all is Eovaldi, who missed time with elbow problems after ramping up to some of the highest average velocity in the league and after changing his approach at the behest of Rothschild. Maybe he comes back throwing bullets, or maybe the below is an ongoing problem.
Elbow rather  
Dunedin81 : 10/7/2015 9:34 am : link
...
True..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/7/2015 9:36 am : link
Eovaldi being healthy is a key.
Until the albatross contracts are up  
The_Boss : 10/7/2015 9:38 am : link
which is another 2 years (still stuck with Ellsbury tho), it looks like the same team is coming back in 2016. Another year older. Girardi did it with smoke and mirrors this year as the team overachieved. I think next year, they regress back to the mean, which means 75-85 wins and no playoffs.
RE: I want Gardner to stay..  
Kyle in NY : 10/7/2015 9:39 am : link
In comment 12531699 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
he plays balls out which kills him late in the year, but without the way he played in the Spring and Summer, the Yanks probably aren't even a WC team.


I agree, would much rather see the awful Ellsbury go, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. There just isn't much flexibility to what Cashman can do with the offense now. Gardner is one of the few movable pieces.
RE: True..  
section125 : 10/7/2015 9:41 am : link
In comment 12531801 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
Eovaldi being healthy is a key.


Maybe they need to tell him 95/96 is good enough.....
Oh, I know..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/7/2015 9:41 am : link
hands are tied here, but getting rid of Gardner who still has good years left would weaken the team, likely. Ellsbury can't be counted on for a full year and he's lost a lot of his effectiveness. Beltran is an adventure in the OF. Even with putting some of the young kids in place, we would still have holes in the OF.
Ten Ton  
arniefez : 10/7/2015 9:46 am : link
The explanation was that Ellsbury's numbers vs LH pitching were even worse than Gardner's. Which is true but Gardner's were horrible.

Where does it lead? It leads to the same position players coming back next year. As Dune noted they are locked in at every spot except 2B with a big money contract that can't be moved unless they eat most of the money. The only time the Yankees have done that was with AJ Burnett.

The following guys can't be traded without their approval all have no trade contracts:

Arod 2 years 40 million
Teix 1 year 22.5 million
Ellsbury 5 years 110 million
McCann 3 years 51 million
Beltran 1 year 15 million
CC 2 years 50 million
Tanaka 5 years 111 million

The only MLB position players that could be traded if anyone wanted them are:

Ackley
Didi
JR Murphy
Gardner
Headley

Mitchell, Nova, Pineda, Eovaldi, Shreve, Martin, Wilson, Betances & Miller are tradable too.

Capauano, Drew, Young & Ryan come off the books for 20 million total.


RE: RE: Was there ever an explanation for sitting Ellsbury?  
Ten Ton Hammer : 10/7/2015 9:46 am : link
In comment 12531773 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 12531759 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:


?



Because he's terrible? Just spitballing.



I was under the impression that Gardener was actually hitting much worse than Ellsbury. Was it a matchup-based decision?
Yeah Ellsbury is such an anchor  
Kyle in NY : 10/7/2015 9:50 am : link
what an awful decision, especially now that we see the organization is filled with capable outfielders.

Gotta hope he just wasn't healthy this season. Cause if he was mostly healthy and that's what we got...wow
it's impossible to hit much worse than Ellsbury  
Greg from LI : 10/7/2015 9:51 am : link
unless you're a pitcher. Both of them were bad, but Gardner *usually* works counts and draws walks even when he's not hitting, while the $150 million man just dribbles grounders to second over and over and over.

Clearly, Gardner didn't do any of those things last night, but they wouldn't have gotten anything from Ellsbury either.
well, we know he was healthy early in the season  
Greg from LI : 10/7/2015 9:53 am : link
And he was hitting very well then. Went on the DL, and was garbage for the rest of the season after returning.

So, you can surmise that health played a part in his struggles. But when is the guy ever healthy for more than 6 weeks? He's like a baseball version of Beason - missed big chunks of almost every season he's been in MLB. Giving him a gigantic contract with the expectation that he'd stay healthy and productive in his 30s was a massive error.
The official  
arniefez : 10/7/2015 9:57 am : link
was the splits vs LH pitching.

Quote:
vLHP this season
Gardner: .276/.361/.400
Ellsbury: .253/.327/.325

Totals since September 1
Gardner: .198/.271/.321
Ellsbury: .202/.254/.246

Totals past seven games
Gardner: .238/.238/.238
Ellsbury: .118/.211/.235

LOHUD Yankees - ( New Window )
Thanks  
Ten Ton Hammer : 10/7/2015 10:02 am : link
Heard the lineup last night around 5 PM and listened to Mike Kay have a conniption fit. Figured there had to be a reason for it or Joe would be raked over the coals for it if it didn't work.
Heathcott and Williams have to play  
Shadow : 10/7/2015 10:03 am : link
So yes Gardner or Els must be traded. No one is taking Els.

I would ask the Marlins how much of Arods salary they would be willing to pay for next year.

have to get Tex to DH With McCann Can get Bird and Murphy bats.

Beltran can be traded but not for much.

Joey Bats is a FA and could fill RF or even 3b at times.

RE: I want Gardner to stay..  
HomerJones45 : 10/7/2015 10:21 am : link
In comment 12531699 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
he plays balls out which kills him late in the year, but without the way he played in the Spring and Summer, the Yanks probably aren't even a WC team.
He's a strange player. His best attribute is his speed and yet he's a .260 hitter who strikes out 130 times a year. He dies every year after the All-Star break. He's an older version of Dexter Fowler. Off him while he has some value.
Shadow  
arniefez : 10/7/2015 10:21 am : link
Beltran & Arod can't be traded without their permission. Both have no trade contracts. Both are DH's so no NL team would want them. I can see a slight possibility of Beltran to the Angels with Eppler there now if Beltran wants to go. But Arod isn't going anywhere unless he wants to.
I wonder if Gardner has any value  
arniefez : 10/7/2015 10:24 am : link
I wonder if they tried to trade him last year and there weren't any takers. I know there is no chance of this happening but I think Gardner and Ellsbury should split CF. I wouldn't play either of them more than 100 games next year to try and keep them fresh.
RE: Heathcott and Williams have to play  
HomerJones45 : 10/7/2015 10:27 am : link
In comment 12531853 Shadow said:
Quote:
So yes Gardner or Els must be traded. No one is taking Els.

I would ask the Marlins how much of Arods salary they would be willing to pay for next year.

have to get Tex to DH With McCann Can get Bird and Murphy bats.

Beltran can be traded but not for much.

Joey Bats is a FA and could fill RF or even 3b at times.
Heathcott? The next season he makes it without a stint on the DL will be his first. The kid is made of glass, and is close to being out of baseball as a result. You can't count on him.

Some team would take Ellsbury chalking this season up as an aberration, which it was. But if other teams think you are desperate to get rid of a guy, they aren't going to fall all over themselves offering.

Joey Bats is 35. How much outfield gas do you think is in that tank?
Maybe some team would take Ellsbury  
arniefez : 10/7/2015 10:43 am : link
if he waives his no trade and the Yankees pay about 60 million of the 110 million he's owed or maybe it would take more. There is a lack of understanding of how the baseball business works in the thread. Let's say Theo decided he had to have Ellsbury on the Cubs. Could not live without him would give the Yankees Bryant for him and pay Ellsbury's entire contract. There's no trade unless Ellsbury waives his no trade clause. The big money players on the Yankees all have no trade contracts. Even if Cashman finds someone who will take them they can turn down the trade.
Joey Bats has the miracle of Dominican pharmcies working for him  
Greg from LI : 10/7/2015 10:54 am : link
He has many productive years remaining.
We have some interesting OF pieces...  
Dunedin81 : 10/7/2015 10:59 am : link
most notably Judge, but the laws of prospect performance being what they are, if we get an average or better long-term starter from the trio of Judge, Heathcott and Williams you call it a win.
Gardner is a 4th outfielder on a team with a really good OF.  
Victor in CT : 10/7/2015 11:17 am : link
He wears down if he has to play every day. Ellsbury is a more expensive Gardner, but constantly injured rather than just tired. At least Gardner has a manageable contract that is tradeable. I'd rather try to move Ellsbury to make room for Judge (or Williams or Heathcott), but I doubt anyone takes the contract. And you still have Beltran taking up a spot. Arod/Beltran/Tex the most expensive DH troika in history, only one can play.
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