NFT: Syria Recap Thread -2011

(from when I was alligatorpie, full disclosure, it is interesting to look back)


Archived Thread



NFT Any bets on how many days Assad has left?

mamamia : 10/24/2011 1:17 pm

With desertions growing and morale shrinking and seeing how Kadaffi was slaughtered my guess is maybe two more months. The new regimes across the Arab world might be worse then the old ones but you got to start somewhere


He's safe as long as he has the military on his side
PEEJ : 10/24/2011 1:18 pm : link

.


Dictators rarely have the military on their side
DG32NYG : 10/24/2011 1:38 pm : link

When it really counts. If NATO starts dropping hell from the sky, you'll see them fold pretty quickly. Take Saddam for example, his military put up almost no fight. Granted he stretched them beyond thin with 2 insane wars, but they didn't want to fight for him they were forced to. Same goes for all these dictators. Kadhafi's defenses were actually "admirable" compared to others.


Do any NATO nations rely
GIANTSr01 : 10/24/2011 1:43 pm : link

on Syria for oil or other resources? Why would NATO forces start bombing them?

There are few armies in the world that can put up a fight against the US military. Iraq's military was decimated by tomahawks and bombers before any US troops even set foot in the country.


Longer than you think
njm : 10/24/2011 1:44 pm : link

What's different for Assad than all the others mentioned?

An active ally.

Iran is providing support and would prbably step it up if necessary.

Saudi Arabia might have verbally supported Mubarak, but I don't recall personel, supplies or cash beimg sent


It's only a matter of time...
Modus Operandi : 10/24/2011 1:59 pm : link

The administration can cite the 4 pillars for international intervention, but the tide is turning and I don't see how Assad holds onto power.

Sooner or later, there will be larger clashes and more civilian casualties, more military defections and the Sauds will give the green light.

The real question is, how long until it reaches Iran and what do we do then?
Activists: 11 killed in central, northern Syria - ( New Window )


Assad is different in that
GFL in WV : 10/24/2011 2:00 pm : link

he actually has forces that can and will fire on his own people. Many dictators in the end do not have people that will do that. Assad can rest easy though, he is okay with Obama, judging by the volume of silence, who is battling with that unknown but apparently important menace in Uganda


Thanks for the death of this thread, GFL.
MOOPS : 10/24/2011 2:04 pm : link

.


eh - pretty lame shot GFL
Nitro : 10/24/2011 2:08 pm : link


Quote:
This month President Obama announced that he is sending 100 U.S. military advisers to central Africa to assist regional forces in ending the reign of terror orchestrated by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). In a letter to House Speaker John Boehner, Mr. Obama noted that the LRA "continues to commit atrocities across the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan that have a disproportionate impact on regional security." He concluded, "I believe that deploying these U.S. armed forces furthers U.S. national security interests and foreign policy."


If you think the LRA is some Obama-identified group, check again:


Quote:
In 2001, the U.S. Patriot Act declared the LRA to be a terrorist organization. Kony and two of his most brutal henchmen are wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity and war crimes including murder, rape, sexual slavery, and using children as combatants. There are longstanding allegations that the LRA has enjoyed the support of another indicted war criminal, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir.


I for one have no problem letting the Syrians bleed for their own country, and for the US to maintain it's lead from behind approach that seems to have worked in Libya.

Why Obama Sent Troops to Africa - ( New Window )

GFL
Modus Operandi : 10/24/2011 2:12 pm : link


Quote:
Assad is different in that

GFL in WV : 2:00 pm

he actually has forces that can and will fire on his own people.


Isn't that the point?

How long will the Arab league (Sauds) sit idly by while Assad is firing on his own people? The U.N. has cited 3,000 casualties thus far. What's the magic number, 5,000...10,000?

This President is a pragmatist. Irrespetive of what his relationship with Assad is, Obama can't reassure his own grasp of power beyond this year, much less Assad's in Syria.

If Assad can't squash this real soon, and the clashes increase in magnitude, the AL, U.N. and NATO will need to act.

Barring international intervention
Man In The Box : 10/24/2011 2:12 pm : link

He'll remain for the foreseeable future.


NATO
Dragon : 10/24/2011 2:19 pm : link

On ground give him six weeks they give anybody guns with bullets.


MO
njm : 10/24/2011 2:39 pm : link

While you're talking about Arab League or NATO intervention, doesn't the significant possibility of Iranian intervention on Assad's side (Quds Force?) have to be considered as well?


The Syrian people would not take well
mamamia : 10/24/2011 2:43 pm : link

to Iranian intervention but they have no say anyway. However if Iran intervenes wouldn't that opoen the door and justify other entities intervening? Iran needs to be careful.


Syria is virtually worthless
Phil from WNY : 10/24/2011 2:45 pm : link

They have very little oil, Turkey to their North and Israel to their South. There is no reason to get rid of him.


I
Paul in Brooklyn : 10/24/2011 2:58 pm : link

can see almost no scenarios where Assad is removed from power. He's dug in too well.


njm...
Modus Operandi : 10/24/2011 3:05 pm : link

If their aim it to be a regional counter-weight to the Sauds and the western influence, and we know it is, they'll have to get involved on some level. I do think it's somewhat overstated.

They'll certainly try to exert pressures via subterfuge ala Iraq. They'll send Ahmadinejad on a media tour touting national sovereignty and decrying western influence. They'll rile up radicals and support pro-Syrian govt forces on the down low. I do not see them openly challenging the AL, U.N. and NATO by sending weapons and troops under the Iranian flag. They're too shrew for that.

Surreptitious support accomplishes the above goals while giving cover to the nuclear program. Overt action flies in the face of international public opinion, further isolates them and invites further scrutiny.

Nevertheless, troublesome. No doubt.




Things will get really interesting
JonC : 10/24/2011 3:15 pm : link

if/when the natives get restless in Iran, that's the nation that figures to cause the US the most problems.


leaning towards he is a tougher nut to crack than gadaddfy
alligatorpie : 10/24/2011 3:37 pm : link

'here is why' part deux (njm above part one i think):

1. Syria huge armed forces. Libya had relatively few other than the spoiled (albeit well armed) brats of the elite palace guards and mis-guided african mercs.

Syria has huge armed forces.

2. Syria is very close geographically to both Natos Turkey and also Israel, making destabilisation and retaliation a greater bitch than in North Africa.

3. No Tunesia or even Egypt next door to spread the love.

4. Libya, very diverse ethically and unique historically, while Syria may be diverse as well....it seems to be in a different way style wise...less Mediteranian Flair so to speak.

5. Russia factor, Syria seems more cold war style wise, larger beurocracy, and one gets that the Russkies are more wedded to Assads survival than they were for loony gaddafies survival.

6. Hey...this is like "Survivor - Dictator Island Edition" hahahahahahahaha!






Foreign policy by GFL in WV
Overseer : 10/24/2011 3:39 pm : link

so you are advocating what, exactly? Again putting troops on the ground in the Middle East (worked out great last time)? Air strikes? Mobilizing NATO?

If you believe we should respond around the globe to all thuggish autocrats, say so. If you believe we should respond around the globe to all humanitarian crises, say so.

But your nebulous barb no doubt reflects an unwillingness to consider that foreign policy is not a straightforward, consistent paint by numbers endeavor (remember the Big 3? One wasn't such a nice guy). A relatively low risk foray in Uganda has nothing to do with what's going on in Syria.


more on Russia in Syria
alligatorpie : 10/24/2011 3:44 pm : link

- SHORT exerpt- RIA Novosti.

"....Russia's naval supply and maintenance site near Syria's Mediterranean port of Tartus will be modernized to accommodate heavy warships after 2012, the Russian Navy chief said on Monday...."

"....Tartus will be developed as a naval base. The first stage of development and modernization will be completed in 2012," Adm. Vladimir Vysotsky said, adding it could then serve as a base for guided-missile cruisers and even aircraft carriers..."

"...The Soviet-era facility is operated under a 1971 agreement by Russian personnel.

Since 1992 the port has been in disrepair, with only one of its three floating piers operational.

According to Navy experts, the facility is being renovated to serve as a foothold for a permanent Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean....."

- MOSCOW, August 2 (RIA Novosti)




lol...love the shot at the current admin
montanagiant : 10/24/2011 3:45 pm : link

While completely ignoring the fact they have brought down more attackers of Americans then any admin in recent history..

how silly


I agree with JonC
montanagiant : 10/24/2011 3:46 pm : link

Iran in the near future will be the interesting one, that is kettle ready to boil over and if they go, that whole region will be shook to its foundation


Iran may have a more modern and western undercurrent than, say,
alligatorpie : 10/24/2011 3:50 pm : link

Iraq or Syria does, for that matter.

And yet also a more deeply entrenched set or class of idealogical hardliners...could be very interesting.


clearly russia would want the general regime in syria
alligatorpie : 10/24/2011 4:08 pm : link

to stay in place...thus the treaty for the port in place and if the one leader goes that is easiest and ... for the russians to be saying so provides them with cover....

while at the same time they probably are supporting the regime on the ground -in other ways- as is their won't.


the key to understanding this
Bill2 : 10/24/2011 4:09 pm : link

is understanding which demographic group holds the majority of the economic levers in Syria

id start by looking up Alawites...in particular Alawite Baathists


thx Bll2 - that's on wiki
alligatorpie : 10/24/2011 4:21 pm : link

looks like the Baath party (similar to Iraqs former Bath party?) is a single political party...(yes, allied in the mid-eastern style with a single family or clan)....

...but also with a beurocratic class and patronage system that the Russkies would be very comfortable interfacing with on many levels (i.e. low level technical, military, mid level beurocratic, high level party crowd) ...birds of a feather as it were...held over from the days of mid east nationalism, take your pick.

it would be classic ruskie to be willing to chop the head of the leader while meanwhile keeping the marching band playing on:

re: build the port and expand imperial power (for its own sake) and within a sister-type regime?




alligatorpie
Gary from The East End : Admin : 10/24/2011 4:21 pm : link

Yes, Iran could be very interesting, like the ancient Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times".


one gets the idea that some Iranians are much more passionate about fr
alligatorpie : 10/24/2011 4:25 pm : link

freedom than, say, counterparts in Iraq...or Afganistan....can they handle the Iranian guards on thier own?

Who knows, but if Iran goes the way of lets get extreme, Vermont....hehehe....that would be funny as shit.

Hopefully we wont need to bomb the crap out of Iran come nuke ready times.


Many militaries have been willing to fire on their own people...
Russel in VA : 10/24/2011 4:30 pm : link

up to the point when they no longer believe in the cause for which they're doing so (their privilege under the existing leader, his permanence, ideology, etc etc). The Shah's security forces certainly drew civilian blood, but when they realized the jig was up they stepped aside. Mubarak's security forces had been plenty willing to kill civilians up to the time where they realized he was likely doomed. Maybe covert hints at the likelihood of NATO attack (even if completely fabricated) to senior regime and military officials could do the trick, who knows? Iran is a serious obstacle and Iraq may prove a not-insignificant one. Remember, Iraq at this point is essentially a Shia power, albeit a semi-pluralistic one, and though the Alawites are a different sort of Shia atop a society that is majority Sunni this can still be sold in those terms.


the funny thing is that while Queda is
alligatorpie : 10/24/2011 4:34 pm : link

very decentralised and even seems anarchic at times...dreaming of 'if and when' and doing all sorts of evil deeds in the name of 'if and when'....

...and while the baathists and the former iraqis seem much more centralised and strong government focussed.

and while gaddafy was more of an anomoly...a tiny euro-jet setter class and one guy propped up by brutality and tons of cash.

Iran, conversly, seems to blend a beurocratic system with a fairly decentralised and diverse idealogical set of bases...thus the one hand does not often know what the other is doing...or approve...

in this regard Iran may have more in common with us -structure wise - if not idealogically.


translated I mean that
alligatorpie : 10/24/2011 4:39 pm : link

it seems that Syria and Iraq, culturally, appear like they will be slower to thrive into truly pluralistic states.....the locals not having developed much of a taste for it ...

..ironically, Iran seems to have that potential, culturally speaking.

One certainly hopes it's the case in Libya as well.

It's to do with the style and aptitudes of the locals.


as i mentioned prior to the revolution in Libya
alligatorpie : 10/24/2011 4:49 pm : link

or at the start, here at BBI.

Libya has a deep history of European and Mediteranean, Greek, Spanish, Italian, French cross-cultural and genetic exchange as well as diverse non-arabic tribes..and that these influences would help motivate the insurrention, aka freedom effort...

and hopefully keep the fundamentalists at bay as well afterwords.

Iran has the whole Persian thing...they claim an urban and modern attitude.

Syria and Iraq, on the other hand, seem more wedded to the whole moustacheod strongman thing, culture wise, and for whatever reason...that seems to mesh with the russkies.

we shall see. that in addition to the geoplotical factor s state3d above.




Syria has a fairly long history...
Russel in VA : 10/24/2011 5:37 pm : link

in its own right, the Persians, Greeks, Byzantines, Outremer and the Turks all dominated the area at one time or another. The moustachioed strongman bit may be its fate, but there is nothing foreordained about that, as with Iraq. It has been in the last thirty years, that doesn't mean it will be forever (Egypt, anyone). It could also degenerate into tribal/factional fighting as various groups dominate different geographic areas and even different castes. Interesting times, to be sure.


Supposedly 20,000 soldier desertions
mamamia : 10/25/2011 3:43 pm : link

to date with most coming in the past month. Power to the trolls