Anyone watching? Interested? Obviously this is a two person debate tonight with 3 others joining. Curious to see HC take on the TPP questions. I am sure her emails/Benghazi will be brought up ad nausum, but the TPP has me interested.
Peter in Atl is just an instigator and a shit-stirrer. Nothing more, nothing less. He's been banned before. Posters have left for when Eric, for reasons unknown to man, let him back into the board.
Your point was as clear as day, just ignore him. He's one of the dregs of BBI.
may be stretching it a bit. Not sure there are many startling revelations in here, or anything that succeeds with his minions where logic and gross gaffes have not, but who knows? Link - ( New Window )
"It may LOOK like a low energy Super PAC, but it's really a world class Super PAC. I'd go into details but I can't go into details, but I want you to know that it's great."
I think we're going to have to bring the nickname Teflon Don out of retirement.
He specializes in absorbing rage and spewing out venom, with a nugget of truth thrown in every so often to keep everyone guessing.
It must be awfully uncomfortable to go through life that pissed off. I guess doing so on BBI reduces the likelihood of getting physical, so Eric is performing a community service for the entire city of Atlanta.
HowardKurtzVerified account
þ@HowardKurtz
MSNBC: Sources: Biden decision could come within 48 hours. After so many false alarms for weeks on end, can we stop predicting the timing?
____
The only piece of this that is really interesting, because I don't think Biden would be strong enough to win - especially without the ground game - would be the possibility that Obama's allies push back against Hillary. This is probably the greater danger to her than defeat, the notion that she could alienate some corners of the Obama coalition in beating back a challenge from the Veep.
Obama could absolutely sink Hillary if he OPENLY throws his weight behind Biden.
Maybe Im crazy, but I think Joe is stroking his ego with this Mario Cuomo dance. I think he lost the primary 10 months ago. The time to get in was January. That is when supporters (money and machine) started picking sides. That is when ground games started. Hillary has hired Obama's whole campaign infrastructure, save a few people who absolutely hate her guts from the 2008 primary. I think he made his calls then and people signed up for Hillary. Too late now.
And I dont say this over some abiding love of Hillary, the candidate. I recognize her flaws as a candidate and in many ways wish that we had a more generic candidate.
I'd bet he got beat up in school, got beat up as an adult and will get beat up again and again. Comes here to make up all the best downs he has taken and will take.
Dune, Biden entering the race imo would not be a bad thing Â
for either the Democratic Party or HRC. Adding a big boy to the table could equally benefit both particularly if Lincoln Chaffee is removed. He added nothing. Biden would make it a far better debate.
HRC had to assume Biden might declare even before the email controversy. Biden now entering late will be handicapped to win the nomination. Why would HRC have to push back so severely that Obama supporters would be alienated? Whether you like her or not, she is an able politician. Your also assuming the majority of Obama supporters would be more inclined to support Biden, which I don't think is true.
Imo, this could create more enthusiasm for the party as a whole. If HRC is further damaged, Democrats have a fall back. Seems more problematic for Republicans.
This probably has more implications for Jeb than Trump... Â
for either the Democratic Party or HRC. Adding a big boy to the table could equally benefit both particularly if Lincoln Chaffee is removed. He added nothing. Biden would make it a far better debate.
HRC had to assume Biden might declare even before the email controversy. Biden now entering late will be handicapped to win the nomination. Why would HRC have to push back so severely that Obama supporters would be alienated? Whether you like her or not, she is an able politician. Your also assuming the majority of Obama supporters would be more inclined to support Biden, which I don't think is true.
Imo, this could create more enthusiasm for the party as a whole. If HRC is further damaged, Democrats have a fall back. Seems more problematic for Republicans.
I think Chaffee is irrelevant, no matter what Biden does. My point is that if Biden is running on Obama's legacy and he presents a credible challenge, HRC has to run against it and against him (to an extent) which risks alienating some of his supporters. Whether that bleeds out of donors and endorsements into significant votes remains to be seen, but there is SOME peril there.
but if they want to beat HRC, they really have to concentrate their efforts on Rubio. Lets be honest, HRC isnt losing to Trump, Sanders, or Carly. It just isnt realistic.
She would be favored over Marco, but he probably has the best chance to beat her out of any of the republicans. He has a lot of weaknesses, immigration being one, however this should be the time to start cleaning up some of his ideas and pushing him to the public. He's a good speaker and intelligent.
Only bad thing to come of all these GOP'ers is that they are going to tear each other down, basically handing the election to HRC.
In the new CNN poll, both Hillary and Sanders beat Trump, although Sanders does better, but Carson edges out both of them within the margin of error.
Just goes to show how few people actually know Carson's views. Moderates and independents will run for the hills once they know more about him. Right now, I think many just view him as a soft-spoken smart doctor. As the field whittles down, his weirdness will become more apparent.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Clinton 50, Trump 45 Clinton +5
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Carson 48, Clinton 47 Carson +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN/ORC Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10
General Election: Carson vs. Biden CNN/ORC Biden 52, Carson 44 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Sanders 53, Trump 44 Sanders +9
General Election: Carson vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Carson 48, Sanders 46 Carson +2
but there are some benefits for HRC if Biden enters:
1) Debates will be more interesting since they'll include someone well respected that HRC isn't expected to walk all over (no disrespect to O'Malley, Chaffee, Warner, and even Sanders)
2) Biden is far more of a centrist than Sanders (obviously) so his presence might help HRC from getting sucked too far left
3) Free air time for HRC if the primary battles drag on, rather than it all but being over after the first couple weeks (granted she doesn't really lack name recognition).
In the new CNN poll, both Hillary and Sanders beat Trump, although Sanders does better, but Carson edges out both of them within the margin of error.
Just goes to show how few people actually know Carson's views. Moderates and independents will run for the hills once they know more about him. Right now, I think many just view him as a soft-spoken smart doctor. As the field whittles down, his weirdness will become more apparent.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Clinton 50, Trump 45 Clinton +5
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Carson 48, Clinton 47 Carson +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN/ORC Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10
General Election: Carson vs. Biden CNN/ORC Biden 52, Carson 44 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Sanders 53, Trump 44 Sanders +9
General Election: Carson vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Carson 48, Sanders 46 Carson +2
What that tells you is that generic Republican is beating both. That of course doesn't mean shit 12+ months before the election, but as you observe it's not an endorsement of Carson as a choice so much as a knock on HRC and the temporary state of the Democrats' brand name. Temporary should be emphasized, of course.
I think a lot of people are not checked into the election yet. They know about Trump acting like a bitch, know there is something going on with Hillary's emails, and have heard rumor that there is another fucking Bush running. 125 million votes were cast in the last presidential election. 25 million people watched the GOP debate (many just to see Trump), and 15 million watched the Dem debate, probably with substantial overlap.
I'd note that there is a lot of reason to distrust any 2016 polling. Not saying that there is a pro-GOP bias to those polls. Rather, the polling industry is in chaos. They dont know how to deal with the low-low response rates of ~8%. Gallup has gotten out of the presidential horse race business entirely -- Gallup!!
You also need to look at crosstabs. For example, Quinnipiac is using party splits that dont make any sense for a presidential election year.
Mostly political junky types, voters in early primary states and Iowa caucus goers (already getting ads.),maybe throw in some retirees as well. The diff. of 10 mil. most likely tuning in for Trump.
Everyone else is busy with their lives. So preference is mostly based on impressions. Before I retired, this was me. Didn't pay alot of attention until later in the cycle. When you are busy and alot can happen in a year, why waste your time.
I am at a loss to explain the popularity of a candidate who argues against the invasion of Afghanistan and says, instead, we could have gotten the Arabs to hand Bin Laden over by finding alternative sources of energy. And his poll numbers didn't budge.
I am at a loss to explain the popularity of a candidate who argues against the invasion of Afghanistan and says, instead, we could have gotten the Arabs to hand Bin Laden over by finding alternative sources of energy. And his poll numbers didn't budge.
Well, he is losing to the guy whose main campaign promise is to have Mexico build a massive wall for us. But he is beating a bunch of people who believe that tax cuts raise government revenues. And they all probably believe that climate change is just god farting.
will pay for itself. Top still makes out the best. Still ignoring the issue of demand. Claim will encourage investment & thus economic growth. People can get a job as a bartender like Rubio's Dad. We should all be thankful.
Rubio's plan a bit different than the rest. However, some middle class voters may not think such a good deal. To help pay, reduces income amount subject to highest rate. If you don't have a bunch of kids, middle earners could be subject to a tax increase. Link - ( New Window )
Here is Rubio this month telling CNBC that within 10 years his plan creates a surplus and "becomes revenue positive". (middle of video)
Josh Barro, a conservative is pretty critical of the right, panned it hard, calling it the puppies and rainbows plan. He quotes conservative think-tank AEI scholar James Pethokoukis as calling it “sort of the Oprah Winfrey theory of tax cuts... She was like ‘You get a car, you get a car.’ Well this is ‘You get a tax cut, you get a tax cut.’” Barro explains:
Quote:
The main problem is that both puppies and rainbows are expensive. According to an analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a previous version of the plan advanced by Senator Lee would have cost the government $2.4 trillion in lost revenues over 10 years, and this plan adds new deep tax cuts (including the capital gains cut) that would cost trillions more.
So at least $4.4 trillion in increase deficits. Rubio would eliminate all cap gains and dividend taxes, while at the same time slashing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%. He would abolish the tax on foreign income (something I agree with, but it does reduce corporate taxes with no offset in his plan). S-Corps would be subject to lower taxes -- meaning business owners would probably pay less in taxes than their employees.
Yeah, Rubio is throwing some cash at the middle class with an increased tax credit. Because under the Rubio plan, everybody gets a car. I dont understand why he doesnt just zero out taxes if he doesnt give a shit about deficits. And I REALLY dont understand why the Dems get harangued with "how are we going to pay for that" all the time (fairly) when the GOP's core policy solution is ALWAYS deficit-financed tax cuts that would primarily help the wealthy. It's like the fact that they're not paid for is so obvious that you dont even ask the question anymore. It's utterly unserious. And yet much more serious than Dr. Carson's 10% flat tax. Link - ( New Window )
Yes Rubio plan has a increase credit for kids but gets Â
rid of other tax deductions except home mortgage interest and charitable donations. It decreases top rate to 35% but would start applying to salary incomes as low as $75000 (individuals) & $150000 (joint). So if you live in a high tax state and few kids, no puppies and rainbows for you.
Small business owners (S Corp) would do real well. Where were you Rubio when it would be rainbows every day for me!
But in Canada it looks like the left is so fed up with Harper and his minority 40% government that they far left abandoned the far left NDP party to vote for the center-left Liberal party (so much so that the NDP could fail altogether), and the Liberals may be in the midst of a rout.
"You know, the President is thinking about signing an executive order where he wants to take your guns away. You hear about this? Not gonna happen. That won't happen. But that's a tough one, I think that's a tough one for him to do," Trump told the crowd. "There's plenty of executive orders being signed, you know that. And we can't let that go on." Link - ( New Window )
Trump is just a master of the 1 + 1 minus 1 plus 1 =4 argument. Â
1) Obama wants to control things through executive orders when he can't get Congress to respond, or when Congress simply disagrees.
2) Obama wants to expand background checks and limt a small handful of types of weapons, going as far as he can without Congress' help.
3) "Taking your guns" is unconstitutional.
4) Obama is going to enact an executive order taking your guns unless we stop him. Who will implement it? Will the Supreme Court stand silently by? Let me get back to you on that.
Of course none of that comes close to Ben Carson on getting Bin Ladin just by asking the Saudis, or Jews primarily dying during the Holocaust because of Nazi gun control.
(1 + 1 - 1 + 1) x 2 = 49%, of course.
Btw, Trump is about to pick up more votes as Carson begins to implode, I suspect. So will some others, such as Ted Cruz and Rubio.
Listened to a bunch of Carson interviews recently Â
He's a soft-spoken Ted Cruz. And his individual success is actually a complete disconnect from the constituency he wants to help. He's pretty oblivious to his inability to relate to his supporters. He just thinks everyone should be more like him.
Trump and Carson are pulling away, albeit with the lingering suspicion that they will eventually collapse. A lot of reason to believe that Trump, Carson, and Fiorina are all courting the same voter. Trump's persistence is amazing; while I can tell myself that people just dont know how radical Carson is, Im pretty sure that Trump's supporters know EXACTLY who he is at this point. Color me very surprised that Rubio has done absolutely nothing to break out after a strong debate performance, and given his lack of warts when compared to Bush, Christie, and Kasich. Really starting to wonder whether Walker bailed too early.
Cruz does better in the others, unfortunately, than he did in this one.
But more and more these polls reflect air time, with Carson being a slight exception. Trumps knows how to get air time, realizes he can say just about anything without consequences and takes advantage of it. Fiorina needs another debate to get off the side of the milk carton. Has she gotten more than 30 seconds of air time since the reviews of the 2nd debate? I'm wondering whether her campaign is inept or whether the media has decided "screw any sort of balanced coverage, we're going for eyeballs". Virtually the same holds true for Kasich although I'm more convinced in his case that it's an inept campaign. Rubio does a little better but still pales in comparison to Trump with respect to coverage.
Carson appears to have a strong underrated and underreported ground game and has captured the evangelicals.
that can be held in a broom closet, with room to spare.
Paaartay.
Deej, NBC/WSJ, also today, has Trump at his highest % ever at 25%, uptick for Carson, looks way better for Rubio and Cruz, and has Fiorina and Kasich dropping hard after brief upticks. In fact, this is a very, very good poll for Rubio. Link - ( New Window )
and considering a 3rd party run. Link - ( New Window )
I like Jim Webb, and if the choices are odious enough I might vote for him. But I don't see Webb picking off Democratic voters so much as disaffected Republicans. Likewise Bloomberg probably doesn't upset the Republican apple cart so much as the moderate Democratic one.
if Jim Webb actually were what he purported to be Â
I'd consider him. He's not. He's a phony. For all his rootin' tootin' born fightin' Scots-Irish blather, his record in the Senate was one of a mainstream lefty Democrat.
Also, Deej, Josh Barro is in no way, shape or form conservative Â
No matter what he calls himself. His schtick is playing the part of a "conservative" who writes in the NYT about how appalled he is by how horrible conservatives are. It's a nice little racket and it's gotten him his gig at the Times, but it's rather tired and transparent. He's David Brooks Jr.
RE: if Jim Webb actually were what he purported to be Â
I'd consider him. He's not. He's a phony. For all his rootin' tootin' born fightin' Scots-Irish blather, his record in the Senate was one of a mainstream lefty Democrat.
Meh, generic Democrat with a nice resume is still more appealing than the rest of the Democratic field and a couple in the Republican field (who happen to be leading in the polls).
I have nothing against the guy, but it's a vanity campaign. He doesnt have an issue or issues to talk about. He is not popular and has no national support. He just thinks that he would make a good president. He's wasting time if he runs as an independent, and the networks should not put him in the debates.
As for Bloomberg, Im not thinking about him because he isnt even making noise.
how HRC is going to lose the primary or general election? The bridge closed for a little, but it seems like Sanders is fading and the GOP is still a hot mess with two leading candidates who are better off somewhere in another country.
Generic Democrat with a nice resume is still a Democrat Â
I'd sooner gouge my eyes out of my head with a stick than ever vote for a Democrat. By my estimation, I'll reach that same level of hatred for the GOP in another year or two.
Your point was as clear as day, just ignore him. He's one of the dregs of BBI.
Obviously, that football injury was to your head.
I wonder if Deej is going to point out that you didn't deny it.
"It may LOOK like a low energy Super PAC, but it's really a world class Super PAC. I'd go into details but I can't go into details, but I want you to know that it's great."
I think we're going to have to bring the nickname Teflon Don out of retirement.
Programming for pussies.
Just sayin...
Quote:
Just sayin...
Programming for pussies.
Just sayin...
You called me a pussy on the internet and that hurts my feelings.
It must be awfully uncomfortable to go through life that pissed off. I guess doing so on BBI reduces the likelihood of getting physical, so Eric is performing a community service for the entire city of Atlanta.
þ@HowardKurtz
MSNBC: Sources: Biden decision could come within 48 hours. After so many false alarms for weeks on end, can we stop predicting the timing?
____
The only piece of this that is really interesting, because I don't think Biden would be strong enough to win - especially without the ground game - would be the possibility that Obama's allies push back against Hillary. This is probably the greater danger to her than defeat, the notion that she could alienate some corners of the Obama coalition in beating back a challenge from the Veep.
Maybe Im crazy, but I think Joe is stroking his ego with this Mario Cuomo dance. I think he lost the primary 10 months ago. The time to get in was January. That is when supporters (money and machine) started picking sides. That is when ground games started. Hillary has hired Obama's whole campaign infrastructure, save a few people who absolutely hate her guts from the 2008 primary. I think he made his calls then and people signed up for Hillary. Too late now.
And I dont say this over some abiding love of Hillary, the candidate. I recognize her flaws as a candidate and in many ways wish that we had a more generic candidate.
HRC had to assume Biden might declare even before the email controversy. Biden now entering late will be handicapped to win the nomination. Why would HRC have to push back so severely that Obama supporters would be alienated? Whether you like her or not, she is an able politician. Your also assuming the majority of Obama supporters would be more inclined to support Biden, which I don't think is true.
Imo, this could create more enthusiasm for the party as a whole. If HRC is further damaged, Democrats have a fall back. Seems more problematic for Republicans.
þ@HawkinsUSA
UNF Poll - Florida Primary
Trump 21.7%
Carson 19%
Rubio 15%
Jeb 9%
1st/2nd Choice
Rubio 35%
Trump 28%
Faves
Rubio +68
Jeb +36
Trump +13
HRC had to assume Biden might declare even before the email controversy. Biden now entering late will be handicapped to win the nomination. Why would HRC have to push back so severely that Obama supporters would be alienated? Whether you like her or not, she is an able politician. Your also assuming the majority of Obama supporters would be more inclined to support Biden, which I don't think is true.
Imo, this could create more enthusiasm for the party as a whole. If HRC is further damaged, Democrats have a fall back. Seems more problematic for Republicans.
I think Chaffee is irrelevant, no matter what Biden does. My point is that if Biden is running on Obama's legacy and he presents a credible challenge, HRC has to run against it and against him (to an extent) which risks alienating some of his supporters. Whether that bleeds out of donors and endorsements into significant votes remains to be seen, but there is SOME peril there.
She would be favored over Marco, but he probably has the best chance to beat her out of any of the republicans. He has a lot of weaknesses, immigration being one, however this should be the time to start cleaning up some of his ideas and pushing him to the public. He's a good speaker and intelligent.
Only bad thing to come of all these GOP'ers is that they are going to tear each other down, basically handing the election to HRC.
Just goes to show how few people actually know Carson's views. Moderates and independents will run for the hills once they know more about him. Right now, I think many just view him as a soft-spoken smart doctor. As the field whittles down, his weirdness will become more apparent.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Clinton 50, Trump 45 Clinton +5
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Carson 48, Clinton 47 Carson +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN/ORC Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10
General Election: Carson vs. Biden CNN/ORC Biden 52, Carson 44 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Sanders 53, Trump 44 Sanders +9
General Election: Carson vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Carson 48, Sanders 46 Carson +2
1) Debates will be more interesting since they'll include someone well respected that HRC isn't expected to walk all over (no disrespect to O'Malley, Chaffee, Warner, and even Sanders)
2) Biden is far more of a centrist than Sanders (obviously) so his presence might help HRC from getting sucked too far left
3) Free air time for HRC if the primary battles drag on, rather than it all but being over after the first couple weeks (granted she doesn't really lack name recognition).
And he's dreadfully boring. And he's got no political experience.
He won't be in the mix much longer, when polling turns into voting.
Just goes to show how few people actually know Carson's views. Moderates and independents will run for the hills once they know more about him. Right now, I think many just view him as a soft-spoken smart doctor. As the field whittles down, his weirdness will become more apparent.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Clinton 50, Trump 45 Clinton +5
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Carson 48, Clinton 47 Carson +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN/ORC Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10
General Election: Carson vs. Biden CNN/ORC Biden 52, Carson 44 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Sanders 53, Trump 44 Sanders +9
General Election: Carson vs. Sanders CNN/ORC Carson 48, Sanders 46 Carson +2
What that tells you is that generic Republican is beating both. That of course doesn't mean shit 12+ months before the election, but as you observe it's not an endorsement of Carson as a choice so much as a knock on HRC and the temporary state of the Democrats' brand name. Temporary should be emphasized, of course.
You also need to look at crosstabs. For example, Quinnipiac is using party splits that dont make any sense for a presidential election year.
Everyone else is busy with their lives. So preference is mostly based on impressions. Before I retired, this was me. Didn't pay alot of attention until later in the cycle. When you are busy and alot can happen in a year, why waste your time.
Link - ( New Window )
Well, he is losing to the guy whose main campaign promise is to have Mexico build a massive wall for us. But he is beating a bunch of people who believe that tax cuts raise government revenues. And they all probably believe that climate change is just god farting.
Rubio's plan a bit different than the rest. However, some middle class voters may not think such a good deal. To help pay, reduces income amount subject to highest rate. If you don't have a bunch of kids, middle earners could be subject to a tax increase.
Link - ( New Window )
Josh Barro, a conservative is pretty critical of the right, panned it hard, calling it the puppies and rainbows plan. He quotes conservative think-tank AEI scholar James Pethokoukis as calling it “sort of the Oprah Winfrey theory of tax cuts... She was like ‘You get a car, you get a car.’ Well this is ‘You get a tax cut, you get a tax cut.’” Barro explains:
So at least $4.4 trillion in increase deficits. Rubio would eliminate all cap gains and dividend taxes, while at the same time slashing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%. He would abolish the tax on foreign income (something I agree with, but it does reduce corporate taxes with no offset in his plan). S-Corps would be subject to lower taxes -- meaning business owners would probably pay less in taxes than their employees.
Yeah, Rubio is throwing some cash at the middle class with an increased tax credit. Because under the Rubio plan, everybody gets a car. I dont understand why he doesnt just zero out taxes if he doesnt give a shit about deficits. And I REALLY dont understand why the Dems get harangued with "how are we going to pay for that" all the time (fairly) when the GOP's core policy solution is ALWAYS deficit-financed tax cuts that would primarily help the wealthy. It's like the fact that they're not paid for is so obvious that you dont even ask the question anymore. It's utterly unserious. And yet much more serious than Dr. Carson's 10% flat tax.
Link - ( New Window )
Small business owners (S Corp) would do real well. Where were you Rubio when it would be rainbows every day for me!
Link - ( New Window )
2) Obama wants to expand background checks and limt a small handful of types of weapons, going as far as he can without Congress' help.
3) "Taking your guns" is unconstitutional.
4) Obama is going to enact an executive order taking your guns unless we stop him. Who will implement it? Will the Supreme Court stand silently by? Let me get back to you on that.
Of course none of that comes close to Ben Carson on getting Bin Ladin just by asking the Saudis, or Jews primarily dying during the Holocaust because of Nazi gun control.
(1 + 1 - 1 + 1) x 2 = 49%, of course.
Btw, Trump is about to pick up more votes as Carson begins to implode, I suspect. So will some others, such as Ted Cruz and Rubio.
I think he will implode before Trump.
Trump 27 (+3), Carson 22 (+8), Bush 8 (-1), Rubio 8 (-3), Huck 5 (-1), Paul 5 (+1), Christie 4 (+1), Cruz 4 (-2), Fiorina 4 (-11), Kasich 3 (+1), Santorum 2 (+1), Graham 1 (+1), Jindal & Gilmore 0, Other/no one/no opinion aggregate 7 (+3).
Selected second choice and 1st + 2nd choice added up: Trump 17 (aggregate 1&2: 44), Carson 18 (40), Bush 10 (18), Rubio 10 (18), Huck 4 (5), Paul 4 (9), Christie 5 (9), Cruz 8 (12), Fiorina 6 (10), Kasich 3 (6).
Trump and Carson are pulling away, albeit with the lingering suspicion that they will eventually collapse. A lot of reason to believe that Trump, Carson, and Fiorina are all courting the same voter. Trump's persistence is amazing; while I can tell myself that people just dont know how radical Carson is, Im pretty sure that Trump's supporters know EXACTLY who he is at this point. Color me very surprised that Rubio has done absolutely nothing to break out after a strong debate performance, and given his lack of warts when compared to Bush, Christie, and Kasich. Really starting to wonder whether Walker bailed too early.
Link - ( New Window )
But more and more these polls reflect air time, with Carson being a slight exception. Trumps knows how to get air time, realizes he can say just about anything without consequences and takes advantage of it. Fiorina needs another debate to get off the side of the milk carton. Has she gotten more than 30 seconds of air time since the reviews of the 2nd debate? I'm wondering whether her campaign is inept or whether the media has decided "screw any sort of balanced coverage, we're going for eyeballs". Virtually the same holds true for Kasich although I'm more convinced in his case that it's an inept campaign. Rubio does a little better but still pales in comparison to Trump with respect to coverage.
Carson appears to have a strong underrated and underreported ground game and has captured the evangelicals.
Paaartay.
Deej, NBC/WSJ, also today, has Trump at his highest % ever at 25%, uptick for Carson, looks way better for Rubio and Cruz, and has Fiorina and Kasich dropping hard after brief upticks. In fact, this is a very, very good poll for Rubio.
Link - ( New Window )
I like Jim Webb, and if the choices are odious enough I might vote for him. But I don't see Webb picking off Democratic voters so much as disaffected Republicans. Likewise Bloomberg probably doesn't upset the Republican apple cart so much as the moderate Democratic one.
Meh, generic Democrat with a nice resume is still more appealing than the rest of the Democratic field and a couple in the Republican field (who happen to be leading in the polls).
As for Bloomberg, Im not thinking about him because he isnt even making noise.