For you, you are going to rip Duda every chance you get, while Wright who has been worst, and has had the more favorable pitching matchups, we aren't likely to hear a peep about. It's all good, but it becomes pretty predictable and grating.
I made the post, you can certainly comment on it. I don't see the big deal about posting how awful a player is. We've all done it. Duda HAS been trash this series. Contributed nothing. Wright is a close second to Duda. I really don't get not caring about the small sample size because it's irrelevant. We are in a do or die series. If you are invisible like Duda, Wright, and TdA for the most part, it's fair game to point out their inability to contribute. I understand it may be annoying to some...but so is the constant excuses we get from some posters about certain players. To each his own I guess. But I don't think we fans have been THAT bad with killing the team on their shortcomings. But some absolutely deserve it. This is the constant fear with Duda. All or nothing with him...and we got nothing this series. It's hard to build success around that.
For you, you are going to rip Duda every chance you get, while Wright who has been worst, and has had the more favorable pitching matchups, we aren't likely to hear a peep about. It's all good, but it becomes pretty predictable and grating.
I made the post, you can certainly comment on it. I don't see the big deal about posting how awful a player is. We've all done it. Duda HAS been trash this series. Contributed nothing. Wright is a close second to Duda. I really don't get not caring about the small sample size because it's irrelevant. We are in a do or die series. If you are invisible like Duda, Wright, and TdA for the most part, it's fair game to point out their inability to contribute. I understand it may be annoying to some...but so is the constant excuses we get from some posters about certain players. To each his own I guess. But I don't think we fans have been THAT bad with killing the team on their shortcomings. But some absolutely deserve it. This is the constant fear with Duda. All or nothing with him...and we got nothing this series. It's hard to build success around that.
Still think your dismissing the Dodgers pitching. Like I said, the first time we faced a good, not fantastic Cy Young winner, we scored 13 times. We have very good hitters and Duda and Wright are good players. I'm happy they are on my team. Sometimes you go up against a buzzsaw and the buzzsaw wins. It's fine if you want to point out a player had a bad series, but it's the "build success around" part that irks me. Duda has now had back to back fantastic seasons and he is absolutely an important piece to this team. How he did in this series doesn't effect that IMO. One has nothing to do with the other. And as streaky as he was in 2015, he wasn't nearly in 2014. It's baseball. Players go through streaks.
I've said as much plenty of times. My gripe is only that we did nothing to get them out of a rhythm. It may have not done much, but it may have been the difference in a low scoring game. Much like it was for the Dodgers last night who seemingly stepped out on every single pitch. Pedro and Dusty killed the Mets for this last night after the game.
As for Duda...listen, I love the guy...and you can look at the stats for the year and say "hey, he did great". Depending on what stats you look at, that's up for debate. The point is that he is/was ultra streaky, and yes it is tough to build success around that. Same thing with Granderson last year. Yes, players go through slumps. But they don't just disappear for extended periods of time at multiple points in the year. That is hard to plan around and can tank a team at the wrong time. We can disagree about that until the cows come home but I don't think it's worth either of our time. I get where you are coming from.
Let's talk about how we are going to destroy them next game...led by Duda, DW, and TdA!!
Thought he had that one last night, but in his first AB he took a strike right down broadway with a full count. I don't think it's pressure that gets to him, I think he's just massively streaky and makes his lows even lower because he gets extremely passive. He's a nice piece if you have him on a good contract but he's not a guy who you can build around. He'd be very wise to just take the rumored extension in the offseason guaranteeing him his arb years and buying out 1 year of FA (and maybe 1 option year). I think mentally his performance would benefit from knowing he has some stability vs. playing for a big deal.
By most metrics, yes, he actually did have a better season than 2014. More doubles, higher on base, higher OPS in 18 less games and 42 less plate appearances. Also only 3 less homeruns in those same lesser amount of games and plate appearances. But in those lesser appearances he had 3 more strikeouts than 2014. It's an odd season. The metrics say it's better, it certainly doesn't feel it. If anything it feel likes a flat lined season of amazing hot streaks and amazing cold streaks. Nothing in between. You can either get him out every time he comes up or you can't get him out at all every time he comes up.
It'd be a nice time for him to get into a hot streak again. That's an understatement.
RE: Not dismissing the Dodgers pitching at all...they are great
I've said as much plenty of times. My gripe is only that we did nothing to get them out of a rhythm. It may have not done much, but it may have been the difference in a low scoring game. Much like it was for the Dodgers last night who seemingly stepped out on every single pitch. Pedro and Dusty killed the Mets for this last night after the game.
As for Duda...listen, I love the guy...and you can look at the stats for the year and say "hey, he did great". Depending on what stats you look at, that's up for debate. The point is that he is/was ultra streaky, and yes it is tough to build success around that. Same thing with Granderson last year. Yes, players go through slumps. But they don't just disappear for extended periods of time at multiple points in the year. That is hard to plan around and can tank a team at the wrong time. We can disagree about that until the cows come home but I don't think it's worth either of our time. I get where you are coming from.
Let's talk about how we are going to destroy them next game...led by Duda, DW, and TdA!!
By most metrics, yes, he actually did have a better season than 2014. More doubles, higher on base, higher OPS in 18 less games and 42 less plate appearances. Also only 3 less homeruns in those same lesser amount of games and plate appearances. But in those lesser appearances he had 3 more strikeouts than 2014. It's an odd season. The metrics say it's better, it certainly doesn't feel it. If anything it feel likes a flat lined season of amazing hot streaks and amazing cold streaks. Nothing in between. You can either get him out every time he comes up or you can't get him out at all every time he comes up.
It'd be a nice time for him to get into a hot streak again. That's an understatement.
Didn't he finish the year in a hot streak though? I mean, didn't he just rip off like 3-4 HR in the last week or so of the season? He's faced some great pitching, and he's struggled over 4 games. Hardly a big deal. I'm glad we have him in the lineup against Greinke Thursday. I know that.
Thought he had that one last night, but in his first AB he took a strike right down broadway with a full count. I don't think it's pressure that gets to him, I think he's just massively streaky and makes his lows even lower because he gets extremely passive. He's a nice piece if you have him on a good contract but he's not a guy who you can build around. He'd be very wise to just take the rumored extension in the offseason guaranteeing him his arb years and buying out 1 year of FA (and maybe 1 option year). I think mentally his performance would benefit from knowing he has some stability vs. playing for a big deal.
Define what makes a player you can build around? Duda is one of the best first baseman in the league. I really don't think that can be argued. He had a streaky year? How streaky has Cespedes been?? Granderson has made a career out of being streaky. Wright? TDA? We've seen all these players go through long sustained slumps. Anybody remember Delgado's tenure as a Met? Just don't understand this rational. It all balances out in the end which is why we don't generally look at small samples in baseball.
But that was the last week of the season. He's 2-15 in this series. Of course a huge part of it is the good pitching he has faced. But facing great pitching or not, this has largely been his 2015 season. Blistering hot one week, ice cold the next.
But that was the last week of the season. He's 2-15 in this series. Of course a huge part of it is the good pitching he has faced. But facing great pitching or not, this has largely been his 2015 season. Blistering hot one week, ice cold the next.
I don't really think he's been up and down week to week though. He had one brutal cold streak in May/June and then another mini one after he came off the DL and he had back issues late in the year.
Kershaw was Kershaw last night but Our hitting approach was poor
As others have noted, we let him dictate tempo all game long and didn't try to slow him down or take smart swings. It was all hurry-up ABs and home run swings. No 2-strike hitting, stepping out, etc. I'm sure that if we had been able to get him out of the game in the 6th (even with the one run allowed), we would have gotten to the middle relief and scored more runs.
Oh well... Hope they have a better approach against Grienke tomorrow. They'll need it. At leastwe got Degrom on the mound.
think fans focus too much on "streaky". Pre-playoffs in general terms end of the year stats represent a players "resume". Winning games in April show up the same as games in August. Duda is a streaky player, essentially "all" players are if you aren't Gwynn or Ichiro. Duda has struggled this series but 1. It's 15 ab's 2. 2 starts vs. the best pitcher in baseball who is a lefty and 1 start vs. the likely NL Cy Young award winner. Who knows what the season looks like if Duda doesn't go on a RAMPAGE in late July hitting 9 homers over 8 starts with a 1.651 OPS? The Mets went 7-2 during that run including 3 1 run victories vs. the Nationals. Without Duda's heroics maybe they lose all 3? I'd love to see him have a big game, we need someone to step up but "Duda is sooooo streaky" is a bit overplayed.
The last week or two of the season is irrelevant. Disappearing in the first four games of a five game series is the very definition of a huge deal. Yes, he has faced some tough lefties. So has Granderson. If anything, this just further defines how streaky he is and how it is hard to succeed around him. I hope he proves is all wrong. But if I was a betting man, I'd put money on him shitting the bed again next game.
But that was the last week of the season. He's 2-15 in this series. Of course a huge part of it is the good pitching he has faced. But facing great pitching or not, this has largely been his 2015 season. Blistering hot one week, ice cold the next.
I don't really think he's been up and down week to week though. He had one brutal cold streak in May/June and then another mini one after he came off the DL and he had back issues late in the year.
+1
Duda OPS by month
.915
.948
.576
.749
.976
.961
So he had an AWFUL June, a mediocre July and 4 excellent months bookending them
Dan, I respect your opinion and you are by far a more
knowledgable fan than I. I'm sure you can bombard me with stats that will weaken my argument but after watching Duda this year there is no way I can agree that the streaky thing is overplayed. His streakiness has been discussed all season long. The stats you just posted makes it seem like he's a superstar. He's not. And while all players can be streaky, he takes it to a new level. Just how I feel after watching nearly every game this season.
Full disclosure...I'm aware I may be offfbase. Just how I feel
knowledgable fan than I. I'm sure you can bombard me with stats that will weaken my argument but after watching Duda this year there is no way I can agree that the streaky thing is overplayed. His streakiness has been discussed all season long. The stats you just posted makes it seem like he's a superstar. He's not. And while all players can be streaky, he takes it to a new level. Just how I feel after watching nearly every game this season.
Phi,
I didn't exactly post advance numbers. Those are his OPS's by month. He was horrendous in June, mediocre in July and very good/great in the other months. I think at this point "OPS" is pretty much accepted as a "normal" stat by even the staunchest of "I don't like stats!" people
April/March he hit .325/.427/.488 over 23 games
May .276/.366/.582 over 27 games
June he was horrendous hitting .187/.312/.264
July his slump continued until late in the month when he went on his rampage which began on 7/25
August .304/.389/.587 over 13 games
Sept .227/.386/.576, but he hit 6 homers and walked more times than he struck out (15 vs. 14) so his OPS was a robust .961. Sept he simply had an unusually low BABIP (.196) otherwise he would have hit .260+
second half games Duda posted a .956 OPS with 15 homers and in 68 home games he was SUPERSTAR caliber (1.000 OPS). The Mets played 8 games from 7/25 to 8/2 winning 2/2 vs. the Dodgers, 3/3 vs. the Nationals, 4 of those 5 wins were 1 run games and Duda hit 9 homers hitting nearly .400. Who knows what the season looks like without that? The sweep of the Nats changed the season in my eyes.
True, but also who knows what the season looks like if he didn't
Define what makes a player you can build around? Duda is one of the best first baseman in the league. I really don't think that can be argued. He had a streaky year? How streaky has Cespedes been?? Granderson has made a career out of being streaky. Wright? TDA? We've seen all these players go through long sustained slumps. Anybody remember Delgado's tenure as a Met? Just don't understand this rational. It all balances out in the end which is why we don't generally look at small samples in baseball.
Cespedes is a gold glove LF'er with the ability to play a premium position. If you consider him a CF'er he has elite offensive stats - possibly even best in baseball at his position. He's also shown that he can come up with big hits in big games and thrives in the spotlight. Out of the guys you listed he's the only one who at this phase in their career is worth a 100M contract (or in other words someone you would be willing to build your team around).
Duda is a very solid 1B but he is not elite at the position. Rizzo, Freeman, Gonzalez, Goldschmidt, and Votto are all pretty clearly better than he is and that's just NL. Also, streaky is 1 thing but for those 6 weeks or so around June he was literally the worst player in MLB. I'm a fan of his but if he were a FA right now I'd be very afraid to give him a big deal.
So as I said, very solid player if he's on a good contract, which fortunately for us he is. I could very well see him stringing together a career year next year if the overall lineup were better for the entire season, but I think one thing that would also help him is having security and stability with his contract situation. It would not shock me at all to see the Mets not sign Cespedes this offseason because he gets too expensive and instead resign a bunch of guys to extensions - including Duda, JdG, and Harvey.
I think Duda's terrible June is burned in everyone's minds because it came at a time when we desperately needed offense. Everyone was hurt. This was before the Cespedes, Conforto, Uribe, and Johnson additions. We needed Duda to be our savior and he wasn't. The reality was he was very consistent and good for 4.5 months of he season and in a lot of ways was even better than he was in 2014.
I think the only place we disagree is, I think it's still worth speaking to Duda after the year about a reasonable extension. Maybe his price is beyond what makes sense but no harm in trying to use the "feel good" season as an approach in trying to keep a player. He's team controlled for 2 more. I'd offer to inflate his next 2 years salary + tack on 2 more + 2 "sweet" team options. Maybe he says no. But I wouldn't mind Duda locked up 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 with 2 additional options at BIG money (20ish) and buyout should Duda surprise/shock and be a David Ortiz type of long lasting player.
you also noted, I think people are forgetting how bad the Mets lineup was around Duda. If anything his good early season months were even more impressive. The Mets lineup at times around him was COMICAL.
RE: RE: RE: Duda has been very disappointing so far
Define what makes a player you can build around? Duda is one of the best first baseman in the league. I really don't think that can be argued. He had a streaky year? How streaky has Cespedes been?? Granderson has made a career out of being streaky. Wright? TDA? We've seen all these players go through long sustained slumps. Anybody remember Delgado's tenure as a Met? Just don't understand this rational. It all balances out in the end which is why we don't generally look at small samples in baseball.
Cespedes is a gold glove LF'er with the ability to play a premium position. If you consider him a CF'er he has elite offensive stats - possibly even best in baseball at his position. He's also shown that he can come up with big hits in big games and thrives in the spotlight. Out of the guys you listed he's the only one who at this phase in their career is worth a 100M contract (or in other words someone you would be willing to build your team around).
Duda is a very solid 1B but he is not elite at the position. Rizzo, Freeman, Gonzalez, Goldschmidt, and Votto are all pretty clearly better than he is and that's just NL. Also, streaky is 1 thing but for those 6 weeks or so around June he was literally the worst player in MLB. I'm a fan of his but if he were a FA right now I'd be very afraid to give him a big deal.
So as I said, very solid player if he's on a good contract, which fortunately for us he is. I could very well see him stringing together a career year next year if the overall lineup were better for the entire season, but I think one thing that would also help him is having security and stability with his contract situation. It would not shock me at all to see the Mets not sign Cespedes this offseason because he gets too expensive and instead resign a bunch of guys to extensions - including Duda, JdG, and Harvey.
Your talking about him getting edged out by the absolute biggest stars in the game. He finished tenth in baseball in WAR and ninth in wRC+ and again, you are talking about MVP types barely ahead of him. He goes up even further in the rankings if you take his two year averages. Cespedes has not won a gold glove and I don't know how he's proven he can hit on the biggest stage. He hit one homerun in garbage time against a crappy pitcher since its "counted". For us, during the year, he had a raging hot streak sandwiched between two cold streaks. He's also having a career year and has never had this much success before. You could easily argue Duda is more consistent then Cespedes at this point in their careers offensively. Duda's a 3 WAR player. He's worth 21 million annually and considering how rare power is, probably more. If he were a free agent, he'd easily get a 4-5 year deal worth 21 per.
I think the only place we disagree is, I think it's still worth speaking to Duda after the year about a reasonable extension. Maybe his price is beyond what makes sense but no harm in trying to use the "feel good" season as an approach in trying to keep a player. He's team controlled for 2 more. I'd offer to inflate his next 2 years salary + tack on 2 more + 2 "sweet" team options. Maybe he says no. But I wouldn't mind Duda locked up 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 with 2 additional options at BIG money (20ish) and buyout should Duda surprise/shock and be a David Ortiz type of long lasting player.
I'd be fine offering him an extension but one of the draws with him accepting it before 2015 was that he wasn't making a lot in arbitration this year. Now he's in his last two years of arbitration where he already stands to make a good amount of money. For him to forgo free agency and his one shot at a big pay day in two years, I think you tear up his arbitration years and offer him 5 years/ 100 million right now. That's essentially only a three year / 65 million dollar extension. Only way I can see it working IMO so it's fair for both sides.
you also noted, I think people are forgetting how bad the Mets lineup was around Duda. If anything his good early season months were even more impressive. The Mets lineup at times around him was COMICAL.
This is true and I vividly remember him getting pitched around a ton in the earlier months.
analyzing anyone in the lineup based on last night's game is futile. Best thing to do in my opinion is just to acknowledge that this is how baseball works, especially in the playoffs. WHen you go against a pitcher like Kershaw you just accept that there was no woulda, coulda, shoulda. When the guy on the mound dominates, they are in control of the whole game and the one on one nature of the sport plays out with the elite pitcher making everyone look foolish. I think the baseball phrase we've all heard more than any other is "Great Pitching Always Beats Great Hitting". And he is beyond great. He's a generational lefty who struck out 300 this year.
They found the holes and had their inning. Our pitching was pretty darn good yesterday. Theirs was better.
Or Matz allow the opposing pitcher to get on base. Not getting that out was the killer, it opened the door for them.
I made the post, you can certainly comment on it. I don't see the big deal about posting how awful a player is. We've all done it. Duda HAS been trash this series. Contributed nothing. Wright is a close second to Duda. I really don't get not caring about the small sample size because it's irrelevant. We are in a do or die series. If you are invisible like Duda, Wright, and TdA for the most part, it's fair game to point out their inability to contribute. I understand it may be annoying to some...but so is the constant excuses we get from some posters about certain players. To each his own I guess. But I don't think we fans have been THAT bad with killing the team on their shortcomings. But some absolutely deserve it. This is the constant fear with Duda. All or nothing with him...and we got nothing this series. It's hard to build success around that.
Quote:
If Wright, Flores, and Murphy all moved the other way 6 inches then we probably get out of that inning with zero runs and win the game 1-0.
They found the holes and had their inning. Our pitching was pretty darn good yesterday. Theirs was better.
Or Matz allow the opposing pitcher to get on base. Not getting that out was the killer, it opened the door for them.
Yes, that also. That stung.
Quote:
For you, you are going to rip Duda every chance you get, while Wright who has been worst, and has had the more favorable pitching matchups, we aren't likely to hear a peep about. It's all good, but it becomes pretty predictable and grating.
I made the post, you can certainly comment on it. I don't see the big deal about posting how awful a player is. We've all done it. Duda HAS been trash this series. Contributed nothing. Wright is a close second to Duda. I really don't get not caring about the small sample size because it's irrelevant. We are in a do or die series. If you are invisible like Duda, Wright, and TdA for the most part, it's fair game to point out their inability to contribute. I understand it may be annoying to some...but so is the constant excuses we get from some posters about certain players. To each his own I guess. But I don't think we fans have been THAT bad with killing the team on their shortcomings. But some absolutely deserve it. This is the constant fear with Duda. All or nothing with him...and we got nothing this series. It's hard to build success around that.
Still think your dismissing the Dodgers pitching. Like I said, the first time we faced a good, not fantastic Cy Young winner, we scored 13 times. We have very good hitters and Duda and Wright are good players. I'm happy they are on my team. Sometimes you go up against a buzzsaw and the buzzsaw wins. It's fine if you want to point out a player had a bad series, but it's the "build success around" part that irks me. Duda has now had back to back fantastic seasons and he is absolutely an important piece to this team. How he did in this series doesn't effect that IMO. One has nothing to do with the other. And as streaky as he was in 2015, he wasn't nearly in 2014. It's baseball. Players go through streaks.
As for Duda...listen, I love the guy...and you can look at the stats for the year and say "hey, he did great". Depending on what stats you look at, that's up for debate. The point is that he is/was ultra streaky, and yes it is tough to build success around that. Same thing with Granderson last year. Yes, players go through slumps. But they don't just disappear for extended periods of time at multiple points in the year. That is hard to plan around and can tank a team at the wrong time. We can disagree about that until the cows come home but I don't think it's worth either of our time. I get where you are coming from.
Let's talk about how we are going to destroy them next game...led by Duda, DW, and TdA!!
It'd be a nice time for him to get into a hot streak again. That's an understatement.
As for Duda...listen, I love the guy...and you can look at the stats for the year and say "hey, he did great". Depending on what stats you look at, that's up for debate. The point is that he is/was ultra streaky, and yes it is tough to build success around that. Same thing with Granderson last year. Yes, players go through slumps. But they don't just disappear for extended periods of time at multiple points in the year. That is hard to plan around and can tank a team at the wrong time. We can disagree about that until the cows come home but I don't think it's worth either of our time. I get where you are coming from.
Let's talk about how we are going to destroy them next game...led by Duda, DW, and TdA!!
Lol. Sounds good man!
It'd be a nice time for him to get into a hot streak again. That's an understatement.
Didn't he finish the year in a hot streak though? I mean, didn't he just rip off like 3-4 HR in the last week or so of the season? He's faced some great pitching, and he's struggled over 4 games. Hardly a big deal. I'm glad we have him in the lineup against Greinke Thursday. I know that.
Define what makes a player you can build around? Duda is one of the best first baseman in the league. I really don't think that can be argued. He had a streaky year? How streaky has Cespedes been?? Granderson has made a career out of being streaky. Wright? TDA? We've seen all these players go through long sustained slumps. Anybody remember Delgado's tenure as a Met? Just don't understand this rational. It all balances out in the end which is why we don't generally look at small samples in baseball.
I don't really think he's been up and down week to week though. He had one brutal cold streak in May/June and then another mini one after he came off the DL and he had back issues late in the year.
Oh well... Hope they have a better approach against Grienke tomorrow. They'll need it. At leastwe got Degrom on the mound.
Quote:
But that was the last week of the season. He's 2-15 in this series. Of course a huge part of it is the good pitching he has faced. But facing great pitching or not, this has largely been his 2015 season. Blistering hot one week, ice cold the next.
I don't really think he's been up and down week to week though. He had one brutal cold streak in May/June and then another mini one after he came off the DL and he had back issues late in the year.
+1
Duda OPS by month
.915
.948
.576
.749
.976
.961
So he had an AWFUL June, a mediocre July and 4 excellent months bookending them
Phi,
I didn't exactly post advance numbers. Those are his OPS's by month. He was horrendous in June, mediocre in July and very good/great in the other months. I think at this point "OPS" is pretty much accepted as a "normal" stat by even the staunchest of "I don't like stats!" people
April/March he hit .325/.427/.488 over 23 games
May .276/.366/.582 over 27 games
June he was horrendous hitting .187/.312/.264
July his slump continued until late in the month when he went on his rampage which began on 7/25
August .304/.389/.587 over 13 games
Sept .227/.386/.576, but he hit 6 homers and walked more times than he struck out (15 vs. 14) so his OPS was a robust .961. Sept he simply had an unusually low BABIP (.196) otherwise he would have hit .260+
Define what makes a player you can build around? Duda is one of the best first baseman in the league. I really don't think that can be argued. He had a streaky year? How streaky has Cespedes been?? Granderson has made a career out of being streaky. Wright? TDA? We've seen all these players go through long sustained slumps. Anybody remember Delgado's tenure as a Met? Just don't understand this rational. It all balances out in the end which is why we don't generally look at small samples in baseball.
Cespedes is a gold glove LF'er with the ability to play a premium position. If you consider him a CF'er he has elite offensive stats - possibly even best in baseball at his position. He's also shown that he can come up with big hits in big games and thrives in the spotlight. Out of the guys you listed he's the only one who at this phase in their career is worth a 100M contract (or in other words someone you would be willing to build your team around).
Duda is a very solid 1B but he is not elite at the position. Rizzo, Freeman, Gonzalez, Goldschmidt, and Votto are all pretty clearly better than he is and that's just NL. Also, streaky is 1 thing but for those 6 weeks or so around June he was literally the worst player in MLB. I'm a fan of his but if he were a FA right now I'd be very afraid to give him a big deal.
So as I said, very solid player if he's on a good contract, which fortunately for us he is. I could very well see him stringing together a career year next year if the overall lineup were better for the entire season, but I think one thing that would also help him is having security and stability with his contract situation. It would not shock me at all to see the Mets not sign Cespedes this offseason because he gets too expensive and instead resign a bunch of guys to extensions - including Duda, JdG, and Harvey.
Quote:
Define what makes a player you can build around? Duda is one of the best first baseman in the league. I really don't think that can be argued. He had a streaky year? How streaky has Cespedes been?? Granderson has made a career out of being streaky. Wright? TDA? We've seen all these players go through long sustained slumps. Anybody remember Delgado's tenure as a Met? Just don't understand this rational. It all balances out in the end which is why we don't generally look at small samples in baseball.
Cespedes is a gold glove LF'er with the ability to play a premium position. If you consider him a CF'er he has elite offensive stats - possibly even best in baseball at his position. He's also shown that he can come up with big hits in big games and thrives in the spotlight. Out of the guys you listed he's the only one who at this phase in their career is worth a 100M contract (or in other words someone you would be willing to build your team around).
Duda is a very solid 1B but he is not elite at the position. Rizzo, Freeman, Gonzalez, Goldschmidt, and Votto are all pretty clearly better than he is and that's just NL. Also, streaky is 1 thing but for those 6 weeks or so around June he was literally the worst player in MLB. I'm a fan of his but if he were a FA right now I'd be very afraid to give him a big deal.
So as I said, very solid player if he's on a good contract, which fortunately for us he is. I could very well see him stringing together a career year next year if the overall lineup were better for the entire season, but I think one thing that would also help him is having security and stability with his contract situation. It would not shock me at all to see the Mets not sign Cespedes this offseason because he gets too expensive and instead resign a bunch of guys to extensions - including Duda, JdG, and Harvey.
Your talking about him getting edged out by the absolute biggest stars in the game. He finished tenth in baseball in WAR and ninth in wRC+ and again, you are talking about MVP types barely ahead of him. He goes up even further in the rankings if you take his two year averages. Cespedes has not won a gold glove and I don't know how he's proven he can hit on the biggest stage. He hit one homerun in garbage time against a crappy pitcher since its "counted". For us, during the year, he had a raging hot streak sandwiched between two cold streaks. He's also having a career year and has never had this much success before. You could easily argue Duda is more consistent then Cespedes at this point in their careers offensively. Duda's a 3 WAR player. He's worth 21 million annually and considering how rare power is, probably more. If he were a free agent, he'd easily get a 4-5 year deal worth 21 per.
I'd be fine offering him an extension but one of the draws with him accepting it before 2015 was that he wasn't making a lot in arbitration this year. Now he's in his last two years of arbitration where he already stands to make a good amount of money. For him to forgo free agency and his one shot at a big pay day in two years, I think you tear up his arbitration years and offer him 5 years/ 100 million right now. That's essentially only a three year / 65 million dollar extension. Only way I can see it working IMO so it's fair for both sides.
This is true and I vividly remember him getting pitched around a ton in the earlier months.
Get your popcorn ready for next game and pray.