there was 4 min left, but that would have been a 1st down around the Giants 20, so they could definitely have at worst kicked a FG (the Giants scored a TD anyway, so that wouldn't have mattered), but it would have made things much harder.
not 100% game over since there was still 4 min left, but more than likely, game over.
It always gets couched as Welker dropped it, but Brady could have made a much better throw if I recall correctly.
Once again, it points out the value of getting pressure on Brady. I don't recall him being pressured on that play or not, but given the pressure he had gotten, I'd have to guess it was a factor in his "non ideal" throw.
Welker has taken a lot of heat for the "drop" on that play. I was at the game, seated at about the 30 yard line, and to my eyes that was all on Brady. Sure, Welker got his hands on it and could have made a great grab, but that was not a well-thrown ball to my actual eyes. Thoughts?
It was a very tough catch and not a good throw. Anyone on BBI would be lucky to make that catch one time in a hundred tries. Welker makes it maybe 30-40 times in a 100 tries.
RE: who pointed to one play as the deciding factor
it was a simple what if question asking for opinions.
Prolly defensive on my end. Living outside of NY I've gotten used to other football fans trying to throw dirt on the Giants SB wins by claiming how lucky they were.
doesn't work. As someone above alluded to, you can cherry pick "what if" moments for either side in any relatively close contest. Drops are simply a part of the game.
What's curious to me is to imagine how different the legacy of the Patriots would be if they had beaten the Giants in those two SBs. I admit that Belichick may be the best coach of all-time, but I find the team--as the majority of non-Patriots fans do--to be particularly smug and offensive. On the way out of Raymond James stadium this past Sunday, I was chatting with Bucs fans who said they owe a debt of gratitude to the Giants for saving us all from the nauseating "Patriots Dynasty" media onslaught we'd be subjected to 24/7 had they won in '07 and '11.
has some fun going back on forth on this in the ensuing days after that Superbowl, damn that was an intense week long high. My take was that it was a tough catch, but a catch Welker had made many times before, but he was trying to catch and run instead of just laying out and making the catch for the first down. In Wes' heart of hearts he knows he was thinking td on that play. This kind of play was also well within Welker's arsenal but he got greedy and went all or nothing. This is one of the reasons why I consider Amani Toomer the greatest receiver in Giant history, because he would routinely lay out and secure a 3rd down catch when he could try for a more difficult play staying on his feet that might result in a touchdown. That dude was all about the situation, never more happy than the day he got his ring.
He had a good pocket, no pressure, and Welker was wide open....if he throws it towards the other side, Welker doesn't have to twist and jump, and he catches it in stride....KP was running to get an angle on him, he wasn't near him to nail him on the catch...
If he makes the catch, first down.....tick, tick....If the Giants hold, Pats kick fg, 20-15....the clock probably would run down in that last four downs to about the 2 minute warning....Giants have one time out left.....who is to say they don't march down the field and score a TD to win?...
However, if the Pats get another first down, and it's first and goal, if they score a td it's over.....if they kick a fg, there is not enough time left on the clock to go the length of the field.....
So yes, that bad throw, was the turning point of the game....
he makes a better throw, and the Patriots likely win.
The Boston Globe did a breakdown on that play and on throws that Brady makes to Welker. The amount of times Brady threw a high back shoulder ball to Welker was either zero or very close to it. Welker has short arms and those types of throws weren't his strong suit nor what he normally received. He is a guy you throw low and into the body that he can catch and run with the ball. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/02/08/tough-spot-for-brady-welker/T5VWtwPXOGE3vXpW5GtlyM/story.html - ( New Window )
I'd say we had about a 30% chance of winning the game at that point (keep in min the Welker drop was only on 2nd down. They had a 3rd down play to work with, too).
If he had caught it, I'd say we would've had maybe an 8% chance moving forward.
still pisses me the fuck off. Jacobs had a huge run to get us into FG range where we could have used the rest of the clock at half. So going up 16-3 or 12-3, we were forced to punt, and they scored right before the half. Down 10-9. They get the ball at half, score again 17-9.
the one where she blamed the receivers by saying it's too bad Tom can't throw the ball to himself.
It was a 50-50 ball. Both players know that they could have done better, but I put 70-30 blame on Brady because he didn't need to make Welker strain for it.
Welker has taken a lot of heat for the "drop" on that play. I was at the game, seated at about the 30 yard line, and to my eyes that was all on Brady. Sure, Welker got his hands on it and could have made a great grab, but that was not a well-thrown ball to my actual eyes. Thoughts?
Brady had to throw it there ( to left of welker from brady POV ) because there was a saftey on the other side ( not sure who ). If brady throws it at welker or to the right of welker chance giants can get pick or break up play.
my mind is still on the hold they called on Boothe that negated the huge Jacobs run. if memory serves, it was already 9-0 and we were driving.
we were legitimately on the cusp of blowing the whole fucking game open. would've been interesting to see how things played out if not for a blown call on a play that WAS made rather than a play that was NOT made.
in the end, still world champs. i just love how people blame the Welker drop, but even moreso on Samuel's "dropped INT" on a ball that skimmed his finger tips as he was jumping. sigh.
Welker has taken a lot of heat for the "drop" on that play. I was at the game, seated at about the 30 yard line, and to my eyes that was all on Brady. Sure, Welker got his hands on it and could have made a great grab, but that was not a well-thrown ball to my actual eyes. Thoughts?
Brady had to throw it there ( to left of welker from brady POV ) because there was a saftey on the other side ( not sure who ). If brady throws it at welker or to the right of welker chance giants can get pick or break up play.
It was a tough catch but not impossible.
Brady cant put air under the ball anymore. It has nothing to do with safety rotating over, Brady missed the pass because he cant drop that pass in anymroe with air under the ball.
Watch him play now vs 2007, he can only throw lasers and ropes now.
...and I also wouldn't call it a bad pass. The way Kenny Phillips was playing the ball, Brady had to throw it there or Phillips could have intercepted it.
It was a good play by the Giants, yet Welker led the NFL in catches that year so he probably should have caught it. But it's not like it was a high percentage catch that fell out of his hands.
RE: who pointed to one play as the deciding factor
how anyone could say it was a routine catch or that he catches it 95% of the time when he literally almost never sees that kind of pass come his way. Again, read the article and look at the stats. He didn't see that kind of ball all season (and likely never did in practice either).
Could he have made that catch? Sure, but he was wide open and Brady missed him and needed him to make the hardest type of catch for a wide receiver, but Edelman wasn't able to bail him out.
It should also go without saying that if Eli made that throw, it would still be brought up by critics.
Here is what kills me about that pass. Personally, I think it was more on Brady, but its not my team so its easier for me to be objective. If Eli throws a pass that is not perfect, everyone on this site will immediately say Eli should of thrown a better ball, which may or may not be the case in many instances. Yet in the throw above everyone is coming up with every excuse in the book to relieve Brady of any responsibility saying Welker does it all the time, he's an NFL receiver, etc...In general, you can make those argument.
However, take his pass to OBJ last week that was picked. Without a second glance the fans will blame Eli and say he shouldn't have thrown it or thrown a better ball. Yet, above when Brady's pass is slightly off we bend over backwards to excuse it. I just don't' understand why Giants fans are hyper critical of every pass Manning throws and yet extremely objective with every other QB in the league.
If you make a supposition that Welker makes the catch, then you can make a supposition about anything that happens after Wes Welker makes the catch.
Here's mine with a given that Welker makes the catch -
Patriots are now in running mode. Seems obvious. Tom Brady hands off to Green-Ellis. Chris Canty crushes the OL and sticks his mitt undermeath Ellis' elbow and forces a fumble. Canty then recovers his own fumble.
watching the play way too many times. It's Welker's fault it wasn't a catch. It's Brady's fault it wasn't a catch and run for more (maybe a TD).
I'm a big believer in if it hits the receiver's hands, it should be caught. However, if Brady throws that ball better (i.e. Welker in stride), I'm not sure Phillips could have stopped the TD. Also, no, Phillips was not in position to make the big hit if it was thrown inside. He took a deeper angle.
it seems that Welker turned around and was looking for the ball earlier/shorter than when/where Brady threw it. he was wide open. So was it Brady thinking 'hey, dude, keep going and this is hitting you in stride and a touchdown' or was it Welker thinking 'I run to X spot, turn around, make a catch and get tackled'. He turned around and expected it in his breadbasket. It was over his head, he reacted and got his hands on it. Easy to say he should have made the catch, but it's a split second reaction that sometimes he makes, sometimes he doesn't. Call it a drop if you want, but it wasn't an easy catch
obvious miscommunication. What we don't know, watching TV, is which side the miscommunication is on.
It was a blown play, and it would have been game over if they had made it.
I believe Chris Collinsworth said it right away during the broadcast. Welker was right in the middle of the that triangle of defenders. If that pass it thrown better, Welker could catch it in stride and run with it. Brady threw it behind him, and made a small WR have to jump and corkscrew in the air to try to make the catch.
Now if that's a pass Welker nornally catches then fine. However, from a HOF QB in BRady who gets all the praise in the media, that pass HAS to be better. It's on the biggest stage and he simply threw a shitty pass.
1. The idea that they don't throw this pass to him means its harder for him to catch it is nuts.
2. The idea that it's more difficult for a shorter guy to make a back shoulder catch is nuts.
It is not more difficult for a shorter guy to reach back and make that catch. And they don't throw it to him often because its easier to defend vs a shorter guy. Not because a shorter WR has any type of problem reaching back for a ball.
The only things that make this a tough catch are:
1. WR doesn't see the ball until late.
2. He gets hit while making catch
3. Defender jumps in line of site before making catch
None of that happened.
If you watch the play from the sideline/back angle you see the ball was seen by Welker very early. His head was turned before the throw. He took several steps before reaching back for the ball.
Having to turn and reach back? Are you kidding me? Thats nothing for a good HS WR. And a HS kid will make that catch all day long. For an NFL WR? It's a routine catch.
Welker made it more difficult for himself because he did not track the ball well. While the ball was in the air and he was looking at the ball, he took 5 - 6 steps before making the move to reach back. He could have made it a little easier on himself. But this is an NFL WR with very good hands. He was able to easily reach back in time and get 2 hands on the ball.
The throw? It put him a great position to make the catch and avoid any hit.
It was not a high velocity throw. It was a perfect spiral with touch. It was only slightly off target. Where throw hit the WR it was in an open area and kept the WR away from a hit. If he lead him more? Does the S hit the WR and make the catch more difficult? Probably.
The throw was not the problem. An NFL WR did not track the ball right and then dropped an easy one.
Wes Welker should be a Giant right now. We don't have a slot receiver. He's it! Evan Mathis as well. Both would have improved their positions. Both would have come cheap. Dumb non moves on Reese's part.
There were 4 mins left and we still had a timeout and 2 min warning. If the assumption is they run 3x and kick a FG, we would have still had time to get the ball back and drive the field on them, like we did. Like we always do against them.
There were 4 mins left and we still had a timeout and 2 min warning. If the assumption is they run 3x and kick a FG, we would have still had time to get the ball back and drive the field on them, like we did. Like we always do against them.
Yes. Whenever ppl want to play the WhatIf game, I go back to the Wilfork phantom holding penalty in the first quarter, that the crew admitted they botched on the field. If the zebras do their job, the game is not even close.
fail to remember is that welker fell down. even if he caught it, he was down and kenny phillips or antrel rolle would have touched him down. NE still had to go the remaining 20 yards. If they settle for a FG the Giants still win. The Giants D was outstanding that day, especially the cornerback play on the outside by ross and webster. The d-line stopped the run all day as well. IF welker catches that ball the Giants still win.
there was 4 min left, but that would have been a 1st down around the Giants 20, so they could definitely have at worst kicked a FG (the Giants scored a TD anyway, so that wouldn't have mattered), but it would have made things much harder.
not 100% game over since there was still 4 min left, but more than likely, game over.
Was watching highlights of XLVI earlier and it made me wonder . We totally out played NE that game. Hey , in both games.
Once again, it points out the value of getting pressure on Brady. I don't recall him being pressured on that play or not, but given the pressure he had gotten, I'd have to guess it was a factor in his "non ideal" throw.
F Tom Brady
F Rob Kraft
F The Patriots
Was watching highlights of XLVI earlier and it made me wonder . We totally out played NE that game. Hey , in both games.
Yep...pointing to one specific play as the deciding factor is silly
Indeed. From the on-field mike you can hear Wilfork himself tell the ref that he was not held on the play.
Those events are not always cause & effect.
"Post hoc ergo propter hoc"
Look it up if you want to learn something...
it was a simple what if question asking for opinions.
it was a simple what if question asking for opinions.
Prolly defensive on my end. Living outside of NY I've gotten used to other football fans trying to throw dirt on the Giants SB wins by claiming how lucky they were.
What's curious to me is to imagine how different the legacy of the Patriots would be if they had beaten the Giants in those two SBs. I admit that Belichick may be the best coach of all-time, but I find the team--as the majority of non-Patriots fans do--to be particularly smug and offensive. On the way out of Raymond James stadium this past Sunday, I was chatting with Bucs fans who said they owe a debt of gratitude to the Giants for saving us all from the nauseating "Patriots Dynasty" media onslaught we'd be subjected to 24/7 had they won in '07 and '11.
no idea why people have to infer or extrapolate beyond that. it's an opinion obviously but absolutely answerable.
If he makes the catch, first down.....tick, tick....If the Giants hold, Pats kick fg, 20-15....the clock probably would run down in that last four downs to about the 2 minute warning....Giants have one time out left.....who is to say they don't march down the field and score a TD to win?...
However, if the Pats get another first down, and it's first and goal, if they score a td it's over.....if they kick a fg, there is not enough time left on the clock to go the length of the field.....
So yes, that bad throw, was the turning point of the game....
The Boston Globe did a breakdown on that play and on throws that Brady makes to Welker. The amount of times Brady threw a high back shoulder ball to Welker was either zero or very close to it. Welker has short arms and those types of throws weren't his strong suit nor what he normally received. He is a guy you throw low and into the body that he can catch and run with the ball.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/02/08/tough-spot-for-brady-welker/T5VWtwPXOGE3vXpW5GtlyM/story.html - ( New Window )
If he had caught it, I'd say we would've had maybe an 8% chance moving forward.
Karma they lost that game.
It was a 50-50 ball. Both players know that they could have done better, but I put 70-30 blame on Brady because he didn't need to make Welker strain for it.
Brady had to throw it there ( to left of welker from brady POV ) because there was a saftey on the other side ( not sure who ). If brady throws it at welker or to the right of welker chance giants can get pick or break up play.
It was a tough catch but not impossible.
we were legitimately on the cusp of blowing the whole fucking game open. would've been interesting to see how things played out if not for a blown call on a play that WAS made rather than a play that was NOT made.
in the end, still world champs. i just love how people blame the Welker drop, but even moreso on Samuel's "dropped INT" on a ball that skimmed his finger tips as he was jumping. sigh.
It was an off-target through that was ultimately catchable, though difficult.
Quote:
Welker has taken a lot of heat for the "drop" on that play. I was at the game, seated at about the 30 yard line, and to my eyes that was all on Brady. Sure, Welker got his hands on it and could have made a great grab, but that was not a well-thrown ball to my actual eyes. Thoughts?
Brady had to throw it there ( to left of welker from brady POV ) because there was a saftey on the other side ( not sure who ). If brady throws it at welker or to the right of welker chance giants can get pick or break up play.
It was a tough catch but not impossible.
Brady cant put air under the ball anymore. It has nothing to do with safety rotating over, Brady missed the pass because he cant drop that pass in anymroe with air under the ball.
Watch him play now vs 2007, he can only throw lasers and ropes now.
Welker saw the ball early. He seemed to adjust a little slowly for the ball. But he turned and got both hands on it. He catches that 95% of the time.
Sucks for him. No excuses. The throw could have been better but it was there. Welker blew it.
It was a good play by the Giants, yet Welker led the NFL in catches that year so he probably should have caught it. But it's not like it was a high percentage catch that fell out of his hands.
it was a simple what if question asking for opinions.
Completely agree. Strange group they are.
no idea why people have to infer or extrapolate beyond that. it's an opinion obviously but absolutely answerable.
Actually, this is the post I meant to quote. Comment I made above applies here.
For an NFL WR that's a routine catch especially when you consider he saw the ball early.
Could he have made that catch? Sure, but he was wide open and Brady missed him and needed him to make the hardest type of catch for a wide receiver, but Edelman wasn't able to bail him out.
It should also go without saying that if Eli made that throw, it would still be brought up by critics.
However, take his pass to OBJ last week that was picked. Without a second glance the fans will blame Eli and say he shouldn't have thrown it or thrown a better ball. Yet, above when Brady's pass is slightly off we bend over backwards to excuse it. I just don't' understand why Giants fans are hyper critical of every pass Manning throws and yet extremely objective with every other QB in the league.
If you make a supposition that Welker makes the catch, then you can make a supposition about anything that happens after Wes Welker makes the catch.
Here's mine with a given that Welker makes the catch -
Patriots are now in running mode. Seems obvious. Tom Brady hands off to Green-Ellis. Chris Canty crushes the OL and sticks his mitt undermeath Ellis' elbow and forces a fumble. Canty then recovers his own fumble.
See how stupid this is?
I'm a big believer in if it hits the receiver's hands, it should be caught. However, if Brady throws that ball better (i.e. Welker in stride), I'm not sure Phillips could have stopped the TD. Also, no, Phillips was not in position to make the big hit if it was thrown inside. He took a deeper angle.
obvious miscommunication. What we don't know, watching TV, is which side the miscommunication is on.
It was a blown play, and it would have been game over if they had made it.
THANK YOU!! That would have been a bigger miracle catch than Tyree. Welker continues to get a bum rap for a poor Brady throw
For an NFL WR that's a routine catch especially when you consider he saw the ball early.
Now if that's a pass Welker nornally catches then fine. However, from a HOF QB in BRady who gets all the praise in the media, that pass HAS to be better. It's on the biggest stage and he simply threw a shitty pass.
No.
One savvy guy!
2. The idea that it's more difficult for a shorter guy to make a back shoulder catch is nuts.
It is not more difficult for a shorter guy to reach back and make that catch. And they don't throw it to him often because its easier to defend vs a shorter guy. Not because a shorter WR has any type of problem reaching back for a ball.
The only things that make this a tough catch are:
1. WR doesn't see the ball until late.
2. He gets hit while making catch
3. Defender jumps in line of site before making catch
None of that happened.
If you watch the play from the sideline/back angle you see the ball was seen by Welker very early. His head was turned before the throw. He took several steps before reaching back for the ball.
Having to turn and reach back? Are you kidding me? Thats nothing for a good HS WR. And a HS kid will make that catch all day long. For an NFL WR? It's a routine catch.
Welker made it more difficult for himself because he did not track the ball well. While the ball was in the air and he was looking at the ball, he took 5 - 6 steps before making the move to reach back. He could have made it a little easier on himself. But this is an NFL WR with very good hands. He was able to easily reach back in time and get 2 hands on the ball.
The throw? It put him a great position to make the catch and avoid any hit.
It was not a high velocity throw. It was a perfect spiral with touch. It was only slightly off target. Where throw hit the WR it was in an open area and kept the WR away from a hit. If he lead him more? Does the S hit the WR and make the catch more difficult? Probably.
The throw was not the problem. An NFL WR did not track the ball right and then dropped an easy one.
There were 4 mins left and we still had a timeout and 2 min warning. If the assumption is they run 3x and kick a FG, we would have still had time to get the ball back and drive the field on them, like we did. Like we always do against them.
There were 4 mins left and we still had a timeout and 2 min warning. If the assumption is they run 3x and kick a FG, we would have still had time to get the ball back and drive the field on them, like we did. Like we always do against them.
Yes. Whenever ppl want to play the WhatIf game, I go back to the Wilfork phantom holding penalty in the first quarter, that the crew admitted they botched on the field. If the zebras do their job, the game is not even close.
Game over by halftime.
Much harder to fire Fassel in 2003. Much harder to move on from Collins.
Spooky.