Yea, technically theyre equals on the field. Coaches, field generals, "strategic masterminds," democratically elected autocrats, whatever. But one is all talk and one is all action. And everybody knows what will happen when their teams eventually meet on the field.
If it's 20-13, or if it's a Thanksgiving buttfumble, the result will surprise no one.
Except Turkey is in NATO, so if they're in the right in the dispute they (theoretically) should be able to count on Europe and America to intervene.
Yea, technically theyre equals on the field. Coaches, field generals, "strategic masterminds," democratically elected autocrats, whatever. But one is all talk and one is all action. And everybody knows what will happen when their teams eventually meet on the field.
If it's 20-13, or if it's a Thanksgiving buttfumble, the result will surprise no one.
Except Turkey is in NATO, so if they're in the right in the dispute they (theoretically) should be able to count on Europe and America to intervene.
I wonder whether we're seeing the end of NATO, either implicitly or outright. The definitive test would be the Baltic states.
Hello......Angela......Hello....are you out there?.....Angela?
Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.
Link - ( New Window )
Have they looked in the area of the Grand Banks?
;)
Absolutely Putin is a monster and I wish all the worst things in the world for him. I can't comprehend the people that admire him or think he provides any value. The guy has gutted the economy and forced any free thinker, talented person, or rich person to have a getaway plan out of Russia. The public was sick of him years ago, he solved that by crushing dissent, entertaining the public with war, controlling all media, controlling all politics, and playing his allies and opponents off of each other.
Putin is a product of his environment and as ridiculous as his actions are he is pigeon-holed into future actions by his past actions and the mob mentality and propaganda media he has created. There are ultra-nationalists in Russia that make Putin look like a liberal, law-abiding, pansy by comparison. His foray in Ukraine is actually deemed by many as not being nearly enough. He has to pander to the oligarchs, military, church, extremists, nationalists, chechens, etc... to prevent the whole thing from falling apart.
But all he is really doing is making sure it falls apart sooner. Without a revamp of the economy, corruption, and politics in Russia there isn't a whole lot anyone can do to stop the downward spiral. He is just in survival mode at this point.
one cannot successfully serve too many purposes at the same time. It just does not work.
And one must be able to take difficult moral decisions.
Now, if we accept, that most do, that stable nation states pose less of a threat to our homeland than asymmetric threats like ISIL and AQ do..
And, if you see that there is a -process- just getting started, whereby Russia might align with our side, western nation states, against the asymmetric threats such as AQ and ISIL etc, and accept that that this is a process worth investing, in...however early and flawed..
keeping in mind that one has left the vacuum, into which the Russians flew, keeping in mind that you want to allow for that the Russians might turn westward towards our side, then you also allow for the Turks to play both sides, then turn around and let the Turks poke Putin in the eye like that, it raises the question of who is forming policy here
Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.
Link - ( New Window )
Have they looked in the area of the Grand Banks?
;)
Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.
Link - ( New Window )
Have they looked in the area of the Grand Banks?
;)
Haha could be there now. It's been over 10 days since it was spotted off of Scotland.
NATO has a very difficult choice to make. ISIS is not the juggernaut some seem to think it to be, it continues to exist because of the timidity and the contradictory interests of those who could destroy it. It would retain latent terror capabilities, but these are not necessarily existential threats.
In the medium term, the more serious threat is going to be a Russia in economic freefall. If that decline leads to political instability, or even if it doesn't, Russia will continue to pose security challenges for the states on virtually of its borders, most notably in the Baltic, and should NATO decline to stand behind Turkey that point will not be lost in Vilnius, Tallinn and Riga.
Also, the piece of Turkey that the Russian plane flew over is a small protuberance into Syria, and the plane was going to and from Syria. It doesn't seem like that big of a deal, more like Turkey wanting to make a statement, for reasons not clear to me. But I don't claim any expertise.
RE: RE: NATO is having an emergency meeting about this ... in Brussels. Â
You really have to wonder about Russia. Im in the camp that says Putin is digging Russia into a deeper and deeper ditch. His "bold leadership" is actually a series of terrible decisions internationally, though probably good for short term domestic consumption.
What happens when Russia hits rock bottom? Is that an okay outcome, or do we have to lift sanctions or lean on the Saudis to prevent that? Can we even lean on the Saudis? I've read that their "refusal" to put a floor on oil prices is an attempt to hammer price sensitive US projects, and also to see how much power they have to set pricing in a world where the US and Russia can be major exporters unlike in days gone by. Is our lever the US export ban, that some want lifted?
RE: I am very against Putin but this shoot-down is unfortunate. Â
Also, the piece of Turkey that the Russian plane flew over is a small protuberance into Syria, and the plane was going to and from Syria. It doesn't seem like that big of a deal, more like Turkey wanting to make a statement, for reasons not clear to me. But I don't claim any expertise.
I dont know how unfortunate it is, other than for the pilot. As for the small protuberance, Russia could have directed its jet further south, or sought permission. Flying into Turkish airspace and ignoring warnings (if true) is not okay. And if intentional, what are the chances it was a rogue pilot and not an intentional provocation?
Bloomberg article - rare for stray fighter planes to be shot down. Â
You really have to wonder about Russia. Im in the camp that says Putin is digging Russia into a deeper and deeper ditch. His "bold leadership" is actually a series of terrible decisions internationally, though probably good for short term domestic consumption.
What happens when Russia hits rock bottom? Is that an okay outcome, or do we have to lift sanctions or lean on the Saudis to prevent that? Can we even lean on the Saudis? I've read that their "refusal" to put a floor on oil prices is an attempt to hammer price sensitive US projects, and also to see how much power they have to set pricing in a world where the US and Russia can be major exporters unlike in days gone by. Is our lever the US export ban, that some want lifted?
I understand the Saudi posture on prices to be essentially doing our bidding in the foreign policy realm with the tacit understanding that it will severely undercut our domestic extraction, specifically higher-dollar extraction methods like fracking. And I assume it is done with our knowledge and probably our informal approval.
That was my question. Why would Turkey do this? It seems like a very excessive use of force
Because these violations have happened on numerous occasions. Turkey is a regional power, it cannot allow Russia to act with impunity in and around its borders.
I guess Putin's adventure in Syria that was applauded by some in US
because Putin was a strong leader who did not lead from behind
isn't turning out so well
That was my question. Why would Turkey do this? It seems like a very excessive use of force
Because these violations have happened on numerous occasions. Turkey is a regional power, it cannot allow Russia to act with impunity in and around its borders.
Yep. Not that I have any sympathy for them, but they did sort of have a right to have their national sovereignty respected.
If Putin is a nihilistic opportunist who has not hung his hat on any particular ideology
and Jihadis are nihilistic opportunists who -have- hung their hats on an ideology, one that says that we are devils, then Putin can be turned towards our side, whereas Jihadis cannot.
For those who have served (respect) and don't see ISIL as a major threat, I submit that we need to settle down Syria one way or the other; 10 million refuges and 300k dead is a very serious geopolitical and ethical situation.
Small as they may be, we don't want the jihadis to be like the virus that one never finished taking the anti-biotic for, to morph into something worse, just by surviving so long, which process has already started.
Besides Turkish airspace, they have complained about Russia targeting Turkmen. Also, missile used to takedown helicopter was US made. Thing sure can get complicated.
"Turkmen rebels have been fighting to oust Syrian President Assad, whom the Russians support, since 2011. A U.S.-led coalition has been bombing Islamic State targets in the war-ravaged country, but has accused Russia of targeting U.S.-backed rebels such as the Turkmen instead of the Islamic State"
"Turkey summoned the Russian ambassador twice in October after Russian fighter planes breached Turkish airspace. At the time, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkish pilots had been instructed to intercept any Russian aircraft that enters Turkey."
"The ambassador, Andrei Karlov, was summoned again Friday to protest Russian bombing of Turkmen villages in northern Syria close to the Turkish border. The ambassador was told that ongoing attacks on the villages "could lead to serious consequences," the foreign ministry said.
the Saudis are killing our domestic exploration right now. Whether that is with our tacit agreement/urging we just dont know.
You don't get something for nothing. The Administration isn't terribly comfortable with those means of extraction anyway, it was the economic engine driving our rather lukewarm recovery for a couple years but the environmental cost/benefit was always a little dicier. Given the chance to let 'market forces' rein in some of their excesses while sticking a thumb in the eye of Russia, Iran and Venezuela probably seemed like a pretty fair trade-off. It has also pushed gas prices down to levels the American public can stomach. It's not a criticism, I just assumed that was part and parcel of the calculus.
the Saudis are killing our domestic exploration right now. Whether that is with our tacit agreement/urging we just dont know.
Well, overproduction is killing all expensive forms of extraction. The Saudis could stop it by slowing their output, but are saying publicly that they don't want to lose market share. Who knows if that's the real reason.
British may also make air strikes. Yesterday, Israel targeted Â
You really have to wonder about Russia. Im in the camp that says Putin is digging Russia into a deeper and deeper ditch. His "bold leadership" is actually a series of terrible decisions internationally, though probably good for short term domestic consumption.
What happens when Russia hits rock bottom? Is that an okay outcome, or do we have to lift sanctions or lean on the Saudis to prevent that? Can we even lean on the Saudis? I've read that their "refusal" to put a floor on oil prices is an attempt to hammer price sensitive US projects, and also to see how much power they have to set pricing in a world where the US and Russia can be major exporters unlike in days gone by. Is our lever the US export ban, that some want lifted?
I understand the Saudi posture on prices to be essentially doing our bidding in the foreign policy realm with the tacit understanding that it will severely undercut our domestic extraction, specifically higher-dollar extraction methods like fracking. And I assume it is done with our knowledge and probably our informal approval.
The Saudis don't need our approval to do this. They are responding a new reality in oil markets - one where the governing dynamic has flipped from increased demand from China putting upward pressure on oil prices to increased supply from the US putting downward pressure on oil prices. Because we are now the swing producer, the global price of oil will effectively be capped at our marginal cost of production, which we've innovated down and can potentially further reduce.
This is very good for us. It gives us options. We have a lot more leverage now over countries whose livelihood depends much more on fossil fuels than does ours.
RE: British may also make air strikes. Yesterday, Israel targeted Â
Hezbollah inside Syria. Apparently, Syrian rebels have been asking for their help.
Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.
Israel has targeted Hezbollah a number of times the last few months. Rather than support for Syrian rebels, I believe the triggering event usually is related to Hezbollah movement of weapons and/or personel towards Lebanon.
That was my question. Why would Turkey do this? It seems like a very excessive use of force
Because these violations have happened on numerous occasions. Turkey is a regional power, it cannot allow Russia to act with impunity in and around its borders.
Back in early October they publicly stated they would shoot down planes over their territory. They made a black and white statement and stood behind it.
To satisfy his domestic audience, Putin has to retaliate. But he can't. This has the potential to finally expose him as the emperor with no clothes at home.
This fool just continues paint himself into a corner.
One of the big issues with Russian AF involvement was rules of engagement (with NATO/US) and communications. One of the early reports, not yet confirmed, is that Turkish warnings to stay clear of its airspace or risk being target of AAC was that the pilots were on different frequencies and the warnings went unheard.
Remains to be seen who might falsely claim that, if not true, and how it would play to national advantage.
Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.
The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."
Russian doctrine is to probe other countries airspace. They do it to us all the time. This time, they got called on it.
This may not apply to Military Radio's. During the early part of Vietnam the North Vietnamese used to squawk on our Guard Channels (243) and effectively jam our attack nets. There have been work a rounds to this issue for a long time now, I would guess. I would also guess that the Russians have also found some technique or procedure to obviate this type of interference.
In any case the pot is beginning to boil. Things are now happening spontaneously seeking more fuel for the fire. IMHO we should create an Alawite Homeland with access to the Russian Air and Sea facilities but done so in a manner that does not create a Danzig corridor type situation. Assad and his cronies should be given safe passage to this Alawite Homeland or die in Damascus. This should be separated off from the rest of Syria with the Russians on the Alawite side of the border and US/ NATO troops on the other separating the warring parties. ISIS should then be crushed using to the greatest degree possible local forces but augmented when necessary by American resources.
Negotiations should then start to try to resolve the other issues endemic to the region on a case by case basis.
The Saudis are pushing out the high cost producers. I don't think they are really targeting fracking or believing they can stop it. Fracking can jump on and offline insanely fast.
The oil sands in alberta for example are shelving a lot of projects that would come online years and decades from now because of current prices. The Arctic, North Sea, Russia, the oil sands, those projects I assume are being shelved or stalled. If prices stay low enough long enough a lot of projects never get started or are shut down.
Frackers are just waiting. Yeah some might go bankrupt or lose money but the equipment and workers will all be readily available as soon as it is profitable again. And each well is different, there isn't some
Magic number that shuts down all fracking. Low prices are also creating efficiencies in drilling. The average rig is a massively inefficient operation and there are tons of ways to cut costs already being undertaken. For example most rigs in western Canada have workers driving massive diesel trucks with slip tanks. The reason? Because everyone turns a blind eye to stealing diesel fuel from the rig tanks. Even last year companies were sending letters to suppliers and contractors asking for voluntary renegotiation on contracts and rates.
The Saudi oil pumping may well be part of a large political plan as well, but I think there are other aspects to it that make sense for their business. Whether the plan works or not is another thing.
One of the big issues with Russian AF involvement was rules of engagement (with NATO/US) and communications. One of the early reports, not yet confirmed, is that Turkish warnings to stay clear of its airspace or risk being target of AAC was that the pilots were on different frequencies and the warnings went unheard.
Remains to be seen who might falsely claim that, if not true, and how it would play to national advantage.
Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.
The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."
Russian doctrine is to probe other countries airspace. They do it to us all the time. This time, they got called on it.
This may not apply to Military Radio's. During the early part of Vietnam the North Vietnamese used to squawk on our Guard Channels (243) and effectively jam our attack nets. There have been work a rounds to this issue for a long time now, I would guess. I would also guess that the Russians have also found some technique or procedure to obviate this type of interference.
In any case the pot is beginning to boil. Things are now happening spontaneously seeking more fuel for the fire. IMHO we should create an Alawite Homeland with access to the Russian Air and Sea facilities but done so in a manner that does not create a Danzig corridor type situation. Assad and his cronies should be given safe passage to this Alawite Homeland or die in Damascus. This should be separated off from the rest of Syria with the Russians on the Alawite side of the border and US/ NATO troops on the other separating the warring parties. ISIS should then be crushed using to the greatest degree possible local forces but augmented when necessary by American resources.
Negotiations should then start to try to resolve the other issues endemic to the region on a case by case basis.
Also don’t forget to eliminate all the old Iraqi Baathist Intelligence Officers that have caused all of this problem.
RE: RE: British may also make air strikes. Yesterday, Israel targeted Â
Hezbollah inside Syria. Apparently, Syrian rebels have been asking for their help.
Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.
Israel has targeted Hezbollah a number of times the last few months. Rather than support for Syrian rebels, I believe the triggering event usually is related to Hezbollah movement of weapons and/or personel towards Lebanon.
Yes that's true but apparently Syrian Rebels through intermediaries have been in contact with Israel.
RE: RE: RE: British may also make air strikes. Yesterday, Israel targeted Â
Hezbollah inside Syria. Apparently, Syrian rebels have been asking for their help.
Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.
Israel has targeted Hezbollah a number of times the last few months. Rather than support for Syrian rebels, I believe the triggering event usually is related to Hezbollah movement of weapons and/or personel towards Lebanon.
Yes that's true but apparently Syrian Rebels through intermediaries have been in contact with Israel.
Meanwhile, a Russian marine was killed on Tuesday during an operation to rescue the two pilots, who were flying an Su-24 warplane, according to RIA Novosti. Link - ( New Window )
I'm not sure it's two pilots any more, per the article you linked - Â
"One of the two pilots was killed in the air by fire from the ground, according to Russia's state-run news agency RIA Novosti. The fate of the second pilot wasn't disclosed."
The House of Saud and the US is highly coordinated when it comes to price output defense and the reserve currency and the NA interests of the majors are interrelated. The American engineering companies and the US petrochemical companies feast over there.
Turkish journalists arrested for exposing Turkish intelligence possible arming of Islamic fundamentalists, which, apparently, the regular Turkish military was not on board with? or something:
''
According to Cumhuriyet, Turkish security forces in January 2014 intercepted a convoy of trucks near the Syrian border and discovered boxes of what the daily described as weapons and ammunition to be sent to rebels fighting against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
It linked the seized trucks to the Turkish national intelligence organisation (MIT).
The revelations, published in May, caused a political storm in Turkey, and enraged president Recep Tayyip Erdogan who vowed Dundar would pay a “heavy price”.
He personally filed a criminal complaint against Dundar, 54, demanding he serve multiple life sentences.
Turkey has vehemently denied aiding Islamist rebels in Syria, such as the Islamic State group, although it wants to see Assad toppled.
“Don’t worry, this ruling is nothing but a badge of honour to us,” Dundar told reporters and civil society representatives at the court before he was taken into custody.
Reporters Without Borders had earlier on Thursday urged the judge hearing the case to dismiss the charges against the pair, condemning the trial as “political persecution”.
The Cumhuriyet daily was awarded the media watchdog’s 2015 Press Freedom Prize just last week, with Dundar travelling to Strasbourg to receive the award.
“If these two journalists are imprisoned, it will be additional evidence that the Turkish authorities are ready to use methods worthy of a bygone age in order to suppress independent journalism in Turkey,” said RSF secretary general Christophe Deloire in a statement.''
If it's 20-13, or if it's a Thanksgiving buttfumble, the result will surprise no one.
Except Turkey is in NATO, so if they're in the right in the dispute they (theoretically) should be able to count on Europe and America to intervene.
Quote:
Yea, technically theyre equals on the field. Coaches, field generals, "strategic masterminds," democratically elected autocrats, whatever. But one is all talk and one is all action. And everybody knows what will happen when their teams eventually meet on the field.
If it's 20-13, or if it's a Thanksgiving buttfumble, the result will surprise no one.
Except Turkey is in NATO, so if they're in the right in the dispute they (theoretically) should be able to count on Europe and America to intervene.
I wonder whether we're seeing the end of NATO, either implicitly or outright. The definitive test would be the Baltic states.
Hello......Angela......Hello....are you out there?.....Angela?
Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.
Link - ( New Window )
Have they looked in the area of the Grand Banks?
;)
Putin is a product of his environment and as ridiculous as his actions are he is pigeon-holed into future actions by his past actions and the mob mentality and propaganda media he has created. There are ultra-nationalists in Russia that make Putin look like a liberal, law-abiding, pansy by comparison. His foray in Ukraine is actually deemed by many as not being nearly enough. He has to pander to the oligarchs, military, church, extremists, nationalists, chechens, etc... to prevent the whole thing from falling apart.
But all he is really doing is making sure it falls apart sooner. Without a revamp of the economy, corruption, and politics in Russia there isn't a whole lot anyone can do to stop the downward spiral. He is just in survival mode at this point.
Link - ( New Window )
And one must be able to take difficult moral decisions.
Now, if we accept, that most do, that stable nation states pose less of a threat to our homeland than asymmetric threats like ISIL and AQ do..
And, if you see that there is a -process- just getting started, whereby Russia might align with our side, western nation states, against the asymmetric threats such as AQ and ISIL etc, and accept that that this is a process worth investing, in...however early and flawed..
keeping in mind that one has left the vacuum, into which the Russians flew, keeping in mind that you want to allow for that the Russians might turn westward towards our side, then you also allow for the Turks to play both sides, then turn around and let the Turks poke Putin in the eye like that, it raises the question of who is forming policy here
Quote:
<snip>
Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.
Link - ( New Window )
Have they looked in the area of the Grand Banks?
;)
Vladimir, you've lost ANOTHER submarine
Things could get interesting soon.
Quote:
<snip>
Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.
Link - ( New Window )
Have they looked in the area of the Grand Banks?
;)
Haha could be there now. It's been over 10 days since it was spotted off of Scotland.
Don't overlook the fact that it's Latakia Province.
In the medium term, the more serious threat is going to be a Russia in economic freefall. If that decline leads to political instability, or even if it doesn't, Russia will continue to pose security challenges for the states on virtually of its borders, most notably in the Baltic, and should NATO decline to stand behind Turkey that point will not be lost in Vilnius, Tallinn and Riga.
I believe that is older footage that has nothing to do with today's events, it is just making the rounds again.
Must be the same crowd as was at the soccer match...oh, wait!
Yes, but they will still be annoying and persecute the Kurds.
Why Sheesh?
Quote:
Sheesh.
Why Sheesh?
Because Brussels is on strict lockdown for the third straight day on account of ISIS. Symbolic of how things are going at the moment.
What happens when Russia hits rock bottom? Is that an okay outcome, or do we have to lift sanctions or lean on the Saudis to prevent that? Can we even lean on the Saudis? I've read that their "refusal" to put a floor on oil prices is an attempt to hammer price sensitive US projects, and also to see how much power they have to set pricing in a world where the US and Russia can be major exporters unlike in days gone by. Is our lever the US export ban, that some want lifted?
I dont know how unfortunate it is, other than for the pilot. As for the small protuberance, Russia could have directed its jet further south, or sought permission. Flying into Turkish airspace and ignoring warnings (if true) is not okay. And if intentional, what are the chances it was a rogue pilot and not an intentional provocation?
Link - ( New Window )
What happens when Russia hits rock bottom? Is that an okay outcome, or do we have to lift sanctions or lean on the Saudis to prevent that? Can we even lean on the Saudis? I've read that their "refusal" to put a floor on oil prices is an attempt to hammer price sensitive US projects, and also to see how much power they have to set pricing in a world where the US and Russia can be major exporters unlike in days gone by. Is our lever the US export ban, that some want lifted?
I understand the Saudi posture on prices to be essentially doing our bidding in the foreign policy realm with the tacit understanding that it will severely undercut our domestic extraction, specifically higher-dollar extraction methods like fracking. And I assume it is done with our knowledge and probably our informal approval.
Because these violations have happened on numerous occasions. Turkey is a regional power, it cannot allow Russia to act with impunity in and around its borders.
because Putin was a strong leader who did not lead from behind
isn't turning out so well
gee noone could have predicted
Quote:
That was my question. Why would Turkey do this? It seems like a very excessive use of force
Because these violations have happened on numerous occasions. Turkey is a regional power, it cannot allow Russia to act with impunity in and around its borders.
Yep. Not that I have any sympathy for them, but they did sort of have a right to have their national sovereignty respected.
and Jihadis are nihilistic opportunists who -have- hung their hats on an ideology, one that says that we are devils, then Putin can be turned towards our side, whereas Jihadis cannot.
For those who have served (respect) and don't see ISIL as a major threat, I submit that we need to settle down Syria one way or the other; 10 million refuges and 300k dead is a very serious geopolitical and ethical situation.
Small as they may be, we don't want the jihadis to be like the virus that one never finished taking the anti-biotic for, to morph into something worse, just by surviving so long, which process has already started.
"Turkmen rebels have been fighting to oust Syrian President Assad, whom the Russians support, since 2011. A U.S.-led coalition has been bombing Islamic State targets in the war-ravaged country, but has accused Russia of targeting U.S.-backed rebels such as the Turkmen instead of the Islamic State"
"Turkey summoned the Russian ambassador twice in October after Russian fighter planes breached Turkish airspace. At the time, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkish pilots had been instructed to intercept any Russian aircraft that enters Turkey."
"The ambassador, Andrei Karlov, was summoned again Friday to protest Russian bombing of Turkmen villages in northern Syria close to the Turkish border. The ambassador was told that ongoing attacks on the villages "could lead to serious consequences," the foreign ministry said.
Link - ( New Window )
You don't get something for nothing. The Administration isn't terribly comfortable with those means of extraction anyway, it was the economic engine driving our rather lukewarm recovery for a couple years but the environmental cost/benefit was always a little dicier. Given the chance to let 'market forces' rein in some of their excesses while sticking a thumb in the eye of Russia, Iran and Venezuela probably seemed like a pretty fair trade-off. It has also pushed gas prices down to levels the American public can stomach. It's not a criticism, I just assumed that was part and parcel of the calculus.
Well, overproduction is killing all expensive forms of extraction. The Saudis could stop it by slowing their output, but are saying publicly that they don't want to lose market share. Who knows if that's the real reason.
Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.
Quote:
You really have to wonder about Russia. Im in the camp that says Putin is digging Russia into a deeper and deeper ditch. His "bold leadership" is actually a series of terrible decisions internationally, though probably good for short term domestic consumption.
What happens when Russia hits rock bottom? Is that an okay outcome, or do we have to lift sanctions or lean on the Saudis to prevent that? Can we even lean on the Saudis? I've read that their "refusal" to put a floor on oil prices is an attempt to hammer price sensitive US projects, and also to see how much power they have to set pricing in a world where the US and Russia can be major exporters unlike in days gone by. Is our lever the US export ban, that some want lifted?
I understand the Saudi posture on prices to be essentially doing our bidding in the foreign policy realm with the tacit understanding that it will severely undercut our domestic extraction, specifically higher-dollar extraction methods like fracking. And I assume it is done with our knowledge and probably our informal approval.
The Saudis don't need our approval to do this. They are responding a new reality in oil markets - one where the governing dynamic has flipped from increased demand from China putting upward pressure on oil prices to increased supply from the US putting downward pressure on oil prices. Because we are now the swing producer, the global price of oil will effectively be capped at our marginal cost of production, which we've innovated down and can potentially further reduce.
This is very good for us. It gives us options. We have a lot more leverage now over countries whose livelihood depends much more on fossil fuels than does ours.
Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.
Israel has targeted Hezbollah a number of times the last few months. Rather than support for Syrian rebels, I believe the triggering event usually is related to Hezbollah movement of weapons and/or personel towards Lebanon.
Quote:
That was my question. Why would Turkey do this? It seems like a very excessive use of force
Because these violations have happened on numerous occasions. Turkey is a regional power, it cannot allow Russia to act with impunity in and around its borders.
Back in early October they publicly stated they would shoot down planes over their territory. They made a black and white statement and stood behind it.
This fool just continues paint himself into a corner.
Quote:
One of the big issues with Russian AF involvement was rules of engagement (with NATO/US) and communications. One of the early reports, not yet confirmed, is that Turkish warnings to stay clear of its airspace or risk being target of AAC was that the pilots were on different frequencies and the warnings went unheard.
Remains to be seen who might falsely claim that, if not true, and how it would play to national advantage.
Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.
The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."
Russian doctrine is to probe other countries airspace. They do it to us all the time. This time, they got called on it.
This may not apply to Military Radio's. During the early part of Vietnam the North Vietnamese used to squawk on our Guard Channels (243) and effectively jam our attack nets. There have been work a rounds to this issue for a long time now, I would guess. I would also guess that the Russians have also found some technique or procedure to obviate this type of interference.
In any case the pot is beginning to boil. Things are now happening spontaneously seeking more fuel for the fire. IMHO we should create an Alawite Homeland with access to the Russian Air and Sea facilities but done so in a manner that does not create a Danzig corridor type situation. Assad and his cronies should be given safe passage to this Alawite Homeland or die in Damascus. This should be separated off from the rest of Syria with the Russians on the Alawite side of the border and US/ NATO troops on the other separating the warring parties. ISIS should then be crushed using to the greatest degree possible local forces but augmented when necessary by American resources.
Negotiations should then start to try to resolve the other issues endemic to the region on a case by case basis.
The oil sands in alberta for example are shelving a lot of projects that would come online years and decades from now because of current prices. The Arctic, North Sea, Russia, the oil sands, those projects I assume are being shelved or stalled. If prices stay low enough long enough a lot of projects never get started or are shut down.
Frackers are just waiting. Yeah some might go bankrupt or lose money but the equipment and workers will all be readily available as soon as it is profitable again. And each well is different, there isn't some
Magic number that shuts down all fracking. Low prices are also creating efficiencies in drilling. The average rig is a massively inefficient operation and there are tons of ways to cut costs already being undertaken. For example most rigs in western Canada have workers driving massive diesel trucks with slip tanks. The reason? Because everyone turns a blind eye to stealing diesel fuel from the rig tanks. Even last year companies were sending letters to suppliers and contractors asking for voluntary renegotiation on contracts and rates.
The Saudi oil pumping may well be part of a large political plan as well, but I think there are other aspects to it that make sense for their business. Whether the plan works or not is another thing.
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In comment 12641953 ColHowPepper said:
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One of the big issues with Russian AF involvement was rules of engagement (with NATO/US) and communications. One of the early reports, not yet confirmed, is that Turkish warnings to stay clear of its airspace or risk being target of AAC was that the pilots were on different frequencies and the warnings went unheard.
Remains to be seen who might falsely claim that, if not true, and how it would play to national advantage.
Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.
The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."
Russian doctrine is to probe other countries airspace. They do it to us all the time. This time, they got called on it.
This may not apply to Military Radio's. During the early part of Vietnam the North Vietnamese used to squawk on our Guard Channels (243) and effectively jam our attack nets. There have been work a rounds to this issue for a long time now, I would guess. I would also guess that the Russians have also found some technique or procedure to obviate this type of interference.
In any case the pot is beginning to boil. Things are now happening spontaneously seeking more fuel for the fire. IMHO we should create an Alawite Homeland with access to the Russian Air and Sea facilities but done so in a manner that does not create a Danzig corridor type situation. Assad and his cronies should be given safe passage to this Alawite Homeland or die in Damascus. This should be separated off from the rest of Syria with the Russians on the Alawite side of the border and US/ NATO troops on the other separating the warring parties. ISIS should then be crushed using to the greatest degree possible local forces but augmented when necessary by American resources.
Negotiations should then start to try to resolve the other issues endemic to the region on a case by case basis.
Also don’t forget to eliminate all the old Iraqi Baathist Intelligence Officers that have caused all of this problem.
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Hezbollah inside Syria. Apparently, Syrian rebels have been asking for their help.
Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.
Israel has targeted Hezbollah a number of times the last few months. Rather than support for Syrian rebels, I believe the triggering event usually is related to Hezbollah movement of weapons and/or personel towards Lebanon.
Yes that's true but apparently Syrian Rebels through intermediaries have been in contact with Israel.
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In comment 12642366 Watson said:
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Hezbollah inside Syria. Apparently, Syrian rebels have been asking for their help.
Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.
Israel has targeted Hezbollah a number of times the last few months. Rather than support for Syrian rebels, I believe the triggering event usually is related to Hezbollah movement of weapons and/or personel towards Lebanon.
Yes that's true but apparently Syrian Rebels through intermediaries have been in contact with Israel.
That would work to their mutual benefit.
Link - ( New Window )
but, obviously, see the turk/Isil flags,
I mean its possible but not likely that Vox got duped, but.
Turkish journalists arrested for exposing Turkish intelligence possible arming of Islamic fundamentalists, which, apparently, the regular Turkish military was not on board with? or something:
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According to Cumhuriyet, Turkish security forces in January 2014 intercepted a convoy of trucks near the Syrian border and discovered boxes of what the daily described as weapons and ammunition to be sent to rebels fighting against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
It linked the seized trucks to the Turkish national intelligence organisation (MIT).
The revelations, published in May, caused a political storm in Turkey, and enraged president Recep Tayyip Erdogan who vowed Dundar would pay a “heavy price”.
He personally filed a criminal complaint against Dundar, 54, demanding he serve multiple life sentences.
Turkey has vehemently denied aiding Islamist rebels in Syria, such as the Islamic State group, although it wants to see Assad toppled.
“Don’t worry, this ruling is nothing but a badge of honour to us,” Dundar told reporters and civil society representatives at the court before he was taken into custody.
Reporters Without Borders had earlier on Thursday urged the judge hearing the case to dismiss the charges against the pair, condemning the trial as “political persecution”.
The Cumhuriyet daily was awarded the media watchdog’s 2015 Press Freedom Prize just last week, with Dundar travelling to Strasbourg to receive the award.
“If these two journalists are imprisoned, it will be additional evidence that the Turkish authorities are ready to use methods worthy of a bygone age in order to suppress independent journalism in Turkey,” said RSF secretary general Christophe Deloire in a statement.''