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NFT: Turkey shoots down Russian warplane

WideRight : 11/24/2015 6:12 am
That was quick.

Any guess what happens next?


CNN. - ( New Window )
Syrian rebels  
J : 11/24/2015 6:22 am : link
released a video purportedly showing 1 of the Russian pilots dead
So it crashed in Syria?  
WideRight : 11/24/2015 6:25 am : link
But was shot in Turkey?
link to video (warning: graphic)  
J : 11/24/2015 6:26 am : link
link to video (warning: graphic)
NSFW NSFL NSFW NSFL - ( New Window )
The Turks are nobody's ally  
jcn56 : 11/24/2015 6:37 am : link
That anyone, the US, Russia, etc. waste any time and money trying to pretend they are is a travesty.
RE: The Turks are nobody's ally  
Shadow : 11/24/2015 6:47 am : link
In comment 12641770 jcn56 said:
Quote:
That anyone, the US, Russia, etc. waste any time and money trying to pretend they are is a travesty.


Turkey is very important to the US
The Turkeys fighting back  
Cruzin : 11/24/2015 6:53 am : link

Right before Thanksgiving, good for them.
RE: The Turkeys fighting back  
chris r : 11/24/2015 6:59 am : link
In comment 12641774 Cruzin said:
Quote:

Right before Thanksgiving, good for them.


Well done.
Will Putin purport to send 150,000 troops into Turkey now?  
Ben in Tampa : 11/24/2015 7:05 am : link
His shtick is the World's Tough Guy and suddenly he finds his country spread a little thin.
From what I understand...  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 7:17 am : link
They warned the pilot half a dozen times. I'm as critical or Turkey as anyone, but if he was in their airspace and repeatedly warned off its on him, not Turkey, and on Putin for putting him in a position for this to happen.
With Turkey being a member  
Koldegaard : 11/24/2015 7:25 am : link
of NATO, I don't think anything will happen. (to Turkey)

If the plane was shot down by Syrian rebels it's
a whole different story.
RE: Will Putin purport to send 150,000 troops into Turkey now?  
Deej : 11/24/2015 7:28 am : link
In comment 12641778 Ben in Tampa said:
Quote:
His shtick is the World's Tough Guy and suddenly he finds his country spread a little thin.


And yet there is almost reverence for his purported strong and decisive leadership in some corners.

He's really a fool. He has taken his country down a path of economic ruin and international ostracism. Yes, I know people are going to say he needed to do all this for internal reasons etc. That makes him a really, really shitty leader -- ruining his country merely to hold power.
RE: From what I understand...  
jcn56 : 11/24/2015 7:28 am : link
In comment 12641782 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
They warned the pilot half a dozen times. I'm as critical or Turkey as anyone, but if he was in their airspace and repeatedly warned off its on him, not Turkey, and on Putin for putting him in a position for this to happen.


That's Turkey's claim - according to Russia, they were over Syrian airspace.

I know the inclination is to believe the Turks because of their NATO involvement, but they're every bit as shitty when it comes to telling the truth, just ask the Kurds.
From Reuters News agency:  
BlueLou : 11/24/2015 7:32 am : link
Quote:
The Turkish military said the aircraft had been warned 10 times in the space of five minutes about violating Turkish airspace. Officials said a second plane had also approached the border and been warned.

"The data we have is very clear. There were two planes approaching our border, we warned them as they were getting too close," a senior Turkish official told Reuters.

"We warned them to avoid entering Turkish airspace before they did, and we warned them many times. Our findings show clearly that Turkish airspace was violated multiple times. And they violated it knowingly," the official said.


Hopefully this does not escalate; especially since Turkey is a NATO nation and might be viewed by the Russians as representing all NATO in this regard. Also I gather someone will be able to verify the precise location of the aircraft, and whether or not it was in Turkish airspace.
I guess Les Nessman was right  
Bill L : 11/24/2015 7:49 am : link
they can fly
If Hungry attacked Turkey from the rear,  
GiantsUA : 11/24/2015 7:51 am : link
would Greece help?
This wasn't the first time the Russians were warned  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 11/24/2015 7:51 am : link
by Turkey and it's not like they don't pull this bullshit with our airspace a lot. Somebody finally called them out on it.

However, this is why they should never have let the Turks into NATO - out for no one but themselves and moving increasingly away from a secular state.
If Russia invaded Turkey from the rear,  
Victor in CT : 11/24/2015 7:53 am : link
would Greece help?
Turkey is not only a strategic ally...  
BamaBlue : 11/24/2015 7:59 am : link
they are a full-NATO member. So, if Russia decides to push the issue with Turkey, they could face the joint NATO alliance. Not defending Turkey... but they have vital national interests to the US. Our economic and political alliance with them allows the US to have a toe hold to the Middle East and on the Southern perimeter of Russia (and the Black Sea).
Come on at least get it right  
gidiefor : Mod : 11/24/2015 8:00 am : link
If I'm Hungary, and Russian when attacking Turkey in the rear -- do you think a little Greece would help?
I honestly thougt  
Jolly Blue Giant : 11/24/2015 8:01 am : link
This was going to be an onion article spoofing thanksgiving.
Thanks for the help.  
GiantsUA : 11/24/2015 8:27 am : link
It's been awhile since I pulled that one out.
RE: RE: From what I understand...  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 8:31 am : link
In comment 12641788 jcn56 said:
Quote:
In comment 12641782 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


They warned the pilot half a dozen times. I'm as critical or Turkey as anyone, but if he was in their airspace and repeatedly warned off its on him, not Turkey, and on Putin for putting him in a position for this to happen.



That's Turkey's claim - according to Russia, they were over Syrian airspace.

I know the inclination is to believe the Turks because of their NATO involvement, but they're every bit as shitty when it comes to telling the truth, just ask the Kurds.


Again, I don't particularly care for Turkey, either in its secularist incarnation or in its more religious one, but I can't see them simply picking a fight with Russia and hoping that Europe and the US have their back.
This thing will get out of control  
njm : 11/24/2015 8:33 am : link

I opened this thread expecting some zerohedge or similarly fake  
Patrick77 : 11/24/2015 8:34 am : link
News source. This is not good. But at the same time it sends a message loud and clear. Don't fucking violate Turkish airspace.

It was only a matter of time before Putin's games of chicken ran into someone who won't blink. I wonder why Russia hasn't violated Israeli airspace, they seem to violate everyone else's.
and here goes Putin...  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 11/24/2015 8:35 am : link
implying that Turkey is protecting ISIS and thus NATO is being used to act on behalf of terrorists. Well done.
Link - ( New Window )
Two things -  
Ira : 11/24/2015 8:36 am : link
1) Turkey claims that the plane was approaching it's air space and it was warned for 5 minutes that it would be shot down.
2) Russian planes are supposedly backing Assad against other groups. Turkey (Sunni) doesn't like Assad (Shiite).
Thats what they just did  
WideRight : 11/24/2015 8:37 am : link
They stated that this has happened before, so why did they shoot now?

Quite a congregation of shitheads have gathered over there, with no reasonable chance on a decent outcome, and we are still asking why the US doesn't have a larger presence?
RE: Two things -  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 8:43 am : link
In comment 12641855 Ira said:
Quote:
1) Turkey claims that the plane was approaching it's air space and it was warned for 5 minutes that it would be shot down.
2) Russian planes are supposedly backing Assad against other groups. Turkey (Sunni) doesn't like Assad (Shiite).


Assad is an Alawite, technically a Shia but a small minority within Shiism. The Turks don't much care for Iran, they're relatively indifferent about Assad, and they seem to vacillate on ISIS, but they are jealous of their territorial prerogatives.
Wide right  
Patrick77 : 11/24/2015 8:43 am : link
Turkey had publicly said back in October they would shoot down aircraft. It's true they hadn't before but they basically publicly called Putin's bluff and then Russia essentially said "fuck it they are just posturing". Turns out one of these two countries wasn't bluffing. Now Putin has to save face with his public just like turkey has done by backing up their (stupid) words.
RE: Turkey is not only a strategic ally...  
njm : 11/24/2015 8:44 am : link
In comment 12641815 BamaBlue said:
Quote:
they are a full-NATO member. So, if Russia decides to push the issue with Turkey, they could face the joint NATO alliance. Not defending Turkey... but they have vital national interests to the US. Our economic and political alliance with them allows the US to have a toe hold to the Middle East and on the Southern perimeter of Russia (and the Black Sea).


But that relationship has become quite strained for, depending on how you measure it, the last few years up to the last 12 years. Latest estimates have ISIS earning $500 million per year from smuggled oil, and a lot of it went through Turkey. Until recently, they essentially turned a blind eye towards foreign fighters crossing Turkey's borders on their way join ISIS. They appear to join the fight against ISIS by allowing the US to use Incerlik to launch air strikes, but use that as cover to begin a bombing campaign of their own, not against ISIS but against Turkish Kurds.

Most of this, imho, is related to Erdogan holding power. It puts Turkey in a position of being sort of an ally and sort of an adversary.
a fucking turkey shot down a plane?!  
Jints in Carolina : 11/24/2015 8:44 am : link
well, what was it? months or years ago?  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 8:46 am : link
when I said here that 'dickless wonder' head of NATO needed to get NATO member Turkey back in line and to force Turks to stop playing both sides visa vis ISIL?

Similarly to how feckless NATO was doing ham handed paint by numbers job visa vis Ukraine prior to Russian invasion. Not to abandon Ukraine, but to be more subtle.

Then, prior, how ISIL was obviously coochied up to Turkish border Edogan big speech where he said they were beholden to nobody.

One imagines NATO leaders sitting at dinner functions "would you like the roast beef, or the salmon: "ah lovely, the beef please!"

Chech president has come out and said that the mission in question was against ISIL, so why should Turks fire...


so, maybe the Russians were doing what we could not, since we fly from Turkish bases, but doing things we could have/should have been doing all along at least regarding certain locations, not others? Hard to tell from here.
Russia Iran Turkey  
Headhunter : 11/24/2015 8:48 am : link
Alawites Shia Sunni Al qadea ISIS Assad Syrian Rebels Syrian Moderates
what a fucking mess and you want to commit boots on the ground? Against who? With who? For what?
so, regarding Turks being in NATO,  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 8:49 am : link
and once the Erdogan administration came into play, its like letting crazy eddie join the gang, he just does whatever the fuck he wants, and the limp gang leader says 'but we need him'.

anybody else think this was a thanksgiving joke?  
Gordo : 11/24/2015 8:51 am : link
never thought it was a news story.. weird.
RE: and here goes Putin...  
njm : 11/24/2015 8:52 am : link
In comment 12641853 Bobby Humphrey's Earpad said:
Quote:
implying that Turkey is protecting ISIS and thus NATO is being used to act on behalf of terrorists. Well done. Link - ( New Window )


That map is interesting. It shows the incident took place not too far from the Russian naval base in Syria, in an area where the rebels are NOT ISIS. As far as his 2 accusations, there is an historic pattern that suggests than the first is not totally off the wall. Given the actions of France over the last 10 days, however, accusation #2 is absurd and probably was made for internal Russian consumption.
Turkey's commitment to fighting ISIS is an open question...  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 8:52 am : link
they've been hit by a number of terrorist attacks attributable to ISIS. They remain vulnerable because of proximity. So to say they don't do anything is an oversimplification. They have very specific, overlapping concerns in Syria. The Kurds of course, but also the threat ISIS poses to them and the intercession of Iran.
HH, holy mother of all red herrings  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 8:52 am : link
who said that?
Huh?  
Headhunter : 11/24/2015 8:54 am : link
I'm asking a question that has 0 to do with what you wrote. I didn't read what you wrote
RE: I guess Les Nessman was right  
SwirlingEddie : 11/24/2015 8:55 am : link
In comment 12641806 Bill L said:
Quote:
they can fly


Thank you!
Headhunter  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 11/24/2015 8:55 am : link
there are U.S. troops on the ground.
RE: Turkey's commitment to fighting ISIS is an open question...  
njm : 11/24/2015 8:57 am : link
In comment 12641887 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
they've been hit by a number of terrorist attacks attributable to ISIS. They remain vulnerable because of proximity. So to say they don't do anything is an oversimplification. They have very specific, overlapping concerns in Syria. The Kurds of course, but also the threat ISIS poses to them and the intercession of Iran.


I also wonder who is benefitting from that smuggled oil besides ISIS and whether Turkey (in the past) was extracting a transit fee from foreign fighters headed to the caliphate.
I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often  
widmerseyebrow : 11/24/2015 9:00 am : link
Given how frequently pull this shit on "manuevers. "
we really ought to consider that  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 9:00 am : link
Gulf War 1 was what, 1990? then subsequent events.

The Turks, like many nations, remember the old glory days of empire. It is really not that much of a stretch of the imagination that they viewed 25 years of vacuum and instability in neighbor Iraq, thought about how they hate/fear the Kurds, some of whom reside there, then years of instability in bordering Syria, and started thinking about dragging the old empire and expansion apparatus out of the closet.

Erdogan has basically already said out loud, that he would do whatever he wanted to do.
take a step back and think about  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 9:07 am : link
how many groups are in Syria, and consider that one of the reasons there are so many, might be that many nations have (continue to, or not?) secretly 'played the jihadi card' there.

Its really not that huge of a stretch to think the Turks have done so as well.

Very recent re-alignment of northern nations against jihadis is not a bad thing, if your goal is to defeat ISIL. But...Turks obviously did not want that re-alignment.
This is a problem of Russia's making...  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 9:07 am : link
if that plane was actually over Turkish airspace, this is according to several reports not the first such provocation and the pilot was repeatedly warned. Turkey may have generally unclean hands, they may be cynical to a great degree, but it's a basic tenet of international law that a country may police its borders.
I am a million miles from being an expert on any of this  
Go Terps : 11/24/2015 9:08 am : link
I might be nuts saying this (or if this is accurate it's probably been said already), but Putin's actions and language remind of Hitler in the mid-1930s. It's like he's baiting in order to have an excuse to act.
I understand that there will be an attack on America  
Headhunter : 11/24/2015 9:08 am : link
but I think that it is impossible to stop individuals that buy AK 47's and build suicide vests from doing what they are going to do. You might bust 99 lone wolf attacks but the 100th is successful. What is the appropriate response?
Send 30,000 Americans to Syria and Iraq for a decade? I am asking a question not making a statement. If they are successful 3 times does that mean that America will collapse?
RE: I am a million miles from being an expert on any of this  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 9:13 am : link
In comment 12641910 Go Terps said:
Quote:
I might be nuts saying this (or if this is accurate it's probably been said already), but Putin's actions and language remind of Hitler in the mid-1930s. It's like he's baiting in order to have an excuse to act.


Hitler took a Germany near its economic nadir and rode the rebound to economic and military strength. Putin has driven Russia on that downward spiral and is trying to hang on to both the power and the graft that goes with it.
Erdogan has become the world's kingmaker  
NoPeanutz : 11/24/2015 9:15 am : link
We need them more than they need us. Ankara knows this. Everybody knows this.
The Turks have a right to defend their sovereign borders...  
BamaBlue : 11/24/2015 9:17 am : link
the Russians have a history of a bully mentality about borders. They've been pushing the Turks buttons and getting further and further into Turkish controlled areas and over Turkish sovereign airspace... I'm much more concerned about Putin looking for a reason to attack Turkish forces supporting the anti-Al-Assad movement than Turkish hegemony.
well, we may need the Turks, but nobody needs Erdogan  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 9:18 am : link
Turkey still has a strong secular % of its base, NATO has been lacking in strategic insight, weak, bordering on mindless for years, throw in a disinterested US administration and wala.
RE: Russia Iran Turkey  
Watson : 11/24/2015 9:18 am : link
In comment 12641875 Headhunter said:
Quote:
Alawites Shia Sunni Al qadea ISIS Assad Syrian Rebels Syrian Moderates
what a fucking mess and you want to commit boots on the ground? Against who? With who? For what?


You pose a good question. Nothing in the ME is simple. It's never simply one side against another but an intertwining of various interests and their agendas. To commit US Combat Forces, without some consensus of what Syria will look like is asking them to do what? Do we wish to reassert presence in Northern Iraq for potentially only a short term goal? Imo, it's not as simple as destroying ISIS. Entity like ISIS to me is a result not a cause.
Im sure theyre annoyed that Russia and Iran  
NoPeanutz : 11/24/2015 9:19 am : link
are basically bosom buddies now. Turkey got all excited to play the regional hegemon, theyd been waiting a generation for Saudi Arabia to wane, only to find that Rouhani took their seat.
At least it wasn't a civilian airliner  
Shadow : 11/24/2015 9:20 am : link
Like Russia has done time and time again.
RE: At least it wasn't a civilian airliner  
NoPeanutz : 11/24/2015 9:21 am : link
In comment 12641932 Shadow said:
Quote:
Like Russia has done time and time again.

Good point. Thats one line Erdogan hasnt crossed. Look for Putin to send a message.
really dont think anyone is worried longterm  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 9:23 am : link
about a Russian / Iranian alliance, due to the nature and character of those two nations.
although, I do agree with nopeanutz  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 9:27 am : link
point overall:

"Im sure theyre annoyed that Russia and Iran
NoPeanutz : 9:19 am : link : reply

are basically bosom buddies now. Turkey got all excited to play the regional hegemon, theyd been waiting a generation for Saudi Arabia to wane, only to find that Rouhani took their seat."
which goes to the other thread  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 9:29 am : link
the Saudis are up to their asses in Yemen, and obviously supporting AQ in Yemen, while, there are a number of characteristics that make ISIL seem different from AQ.
airspace and communications  
ColHowPepper : 11/24/2015 9:32 am : link
One of the big issues with Russian AF involvement was rules of engagement (with NATO/US) and communications. One of the early reports, not yet confirmed, is that Turkish warnings to stay clear of its airspace or risk being target of AAC was that the pilots were on different frequencies and the warnings went unheard.

Remains to be seen who might falsely claim that, if not true, and how it would play to national advantage.
RE: RE: I am a million miles from being an expert on any of this  
schabadoo : 11/24/2015 9:37 am : link
In comment 12641918 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12641910 Go Terps said:


Quote:


I might be nuts saying this (or if this is accurate it's probably been said already), but Putin's actions and language remind of Hitler in the mid-1930s. It's like he's baiting in order to have an excuse to act.



Hitler took a Germany near its economic nadir and rode the rebound to economic and military strength. Putin has driven Russia on that downward spiral and is trying to hang on to both the power and the graft that goes with it.


Not a fan of Putin, but to be fair he took over a bankrupt nation and brought them back a long way. They're in a bad spot now due to their reliance on oil.
RE: RE: Will Putin purport to send 150,000 troops into Turkey now?  
Boy Cord : 11/24/2015 9:38 am : link
In comment 12641787 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12641778 Ben in Tampa said:


Quote:


His shtick is the World's Tough Guy and suddenly he finds his country spread a little thin.



And yet there is almost reverence for his purported strong and decisive leadership in some corners.

He's really a fool. He has taken his country down a path of economic ruin and international ostracism. Yes, I know people are going to say he needed to do all this for internal reasons etc. That makes him a really, really shitty leader -- ruining his country merely to hold power.


It's the only hand he can play, unless he wants to dust off some Cold War nukes.

Turkey frustrates the hell out of me.
I think it was last week  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 9:42 am : link
the Turks had, in addition to talking about over border flights, warned about attacks on Turkomen Villages (in Syria), basically stating that they had a vested interest in villages just across the border in Syria.
RE: RE: RE: I am a million miles from being an expert on any of this  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 9:45 am : link
In comment 12641958 schabadoo said:
Quote:
In comment 12641918 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


In comment 12641910 Go Terps said:


Quote:


I might be nuts saying this (or if this is accurate it's probably been said already), but Putin's actions and language remind of Hitler in the mid-1930s. It's like he's baiting in order to have an excuse to act.



Hitler took a Germany near its economic nadir and rode the rebound to economic and military strength. Putin has driven Russia on that downward spiral and is trying to hang on to both the power and the graft that goes with it.



Not a fan of Putin, but to be fair he took over a bankrupt nation and brought them back a long way. They're in a bad spot now due to their reliance on oil.


He didn't bring them back so much as oil prices did. He restored their power and prestige on the back of buoyed oil prices.
RE: I think it was last week  
Patrick77 : 11/24/2015 9:46 am : link
In comment 12641967 idiotsavant said:
Quote:
the Turks had, in addition to talking about over border flights, warned about attacks on Turkomen Villages (in Syria), basically stating that they had a vested interest in villages just across the border in Syria.


I have read that in a few articles as well. One would hope Turkey didn't shoot down a plane over Syria because of this vested interest but who knows. Erdogan vs Putin is not a good scenario.

Maybe I'm overconfident in technology but I can't imagine other nations like the US don't already know the true story based on surveillance, satellites, etc... Whether or not the public gets to know or not is another question.
Frustrating or not  
Bill L : 11/24/2015 9:46 am : link
Why is Turkey not in the right here?
RE: I am a million miles from being an expert on any of this  
RB^2 : 11/24/2015 9:47 am : link
In comment 12641910 Go Terps said:
Quote:
I might be nuts saying this (or if this is accurate it's probably been said already), but Putin's actions and language remind of Hitler in the mid-1930s. It's like he's baiting in order to have an excuse to act.

Except that Hitler had an technologically superior war machine at his disposal and no U.S./Soviet behemoth to lay the smack down (though that came shortly after).
lack of discipline and pulling against  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 9:59 am : link
the potential or unfolding re-alignment

re:(''Frustrating or not
Bill L : 9:46 am : link : reply

Why is Turkey not in the right here?'')
RE: RE: RE: RE: I am a million miles from being an expert on any of this  
schabadoo : 11/24/2015 10:01 am : link
In comment 12641976 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12641958 schabadoo said:


Quote:


In comment 12641918 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


In comment 12641910 Go Terps said:


Quote:


I might be nuts saying this (or if this is accurate it's probably been said already), but Putin's actions and language remind of Hitler in the mid-1930s. It's like he's baiting in order to have an excuse to act.



Hitler took a Germany near its economic nadir and rode the rebound to economic and military strength. Putin has driven Russia on that downward spiral and is trying to hang on to both the power and the graft that goes with it.



Not a fan of Putin, but to be fair he took over a bankrupt nation and brought them back a long way. They're in a bad spot now due to their reliance on oil.



He didn't bring them back so much as oil prices did. He restored their power and prestige on the back of buoyed oil prices.


Sure but he gets the credit from his people. He's still amazingly popular at home.
RE: RE: RE: I am a million miles from being an expert on any of this  
njm : 11/24/2015 10:02 am : link
In comment 12641958 schabadoo said:
Quote:
In comment 12641918 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


In comment 12641910 Go Terps said:


Quote:


I might be nuts saying this (or if this is accurate it's probably been said already), but Putin's actions and language remind of Hitler in the mid-1930s. It's like he's baiting in order to have an excuse to act.



Hitler took a Germany near its economic nadir and rode the rebound to economic and military strength. Putin has driven Russia on that downward spiral and is trying to hang on to both the power and the graft that goes with it.



Not a fan of Putin, but to be fair he took over a bankrupt nation and brought them back a long way. They're in a bad spot now due to their reliance on oil.


I don't think by riding a multiyear spike in the price of oil you can say that Putin brought them back. And by siphoning off a lot of the profits to the kleptocracy as opposed to investing it in the Russian economy he essentially insured the comeback would end when the commodity boom did.
RE: lack of discipline and pulling against  
Bill L : 11/24/2015 10:03 am : link
In comment 12642005 idiotsavant said:
Quote:
the potential or unfolding re-alignment

re:(''Frustrating or not
Bill L : 9:46 am : link : reply

Why is Turkey not in the right here?'')
Not sure what that means, but I wonder what the response would be if Turkey flew over Russia or Russia over the US and ignored multiple warnings to leave.
RE: airspace and communications  
TheLocalGypsy : 11/24/2015 10:03 am : link
In comment 12641953 ColHowPepper said:
Quote:
One of the big issues with Russian AF involvement was rules of engagement (with NATO/US) and communications. One of the early reports, not yet confirmed, is that Turkish warnings to stay clear of its airspace or risk being target of AAC was that the pilots were on different frequencies and the warnings went unheard.

Remains to be seen who might falsely claim that, if not true, and how it would play to national advantage.


Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.

The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."

Russian doctrine is to probe other countries airspace. They do it to us all the time. This time, they got called on it.
its not like a suburban fight over your back fence  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 10:05 am : link
there is -context-:


RE: lack of discipline and pulling against
Bill L : 10:03 am : link : reply

In comment 12642005 idiotsavant said:

''Quote:
the potential or unfolding re-alignment

re:(''Frustrating or not
Bill L : 9:46 am : link : reply

Why is Turkey not in the right here?'')
Not sure what that means, but I wonder what the response would be if Turkey flew over Russia or Russia over the US and ignored multiple warnings to leave.''
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I am a million miles from being an expert on any of this  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 10:08 am : link
In comment 12642009 schabadoo said:
Quote:
In comment 12641976 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


In comment 12641958 schabadoo said:


Quote:


In comment 12641918 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


In comment 12641910 Go Terps said:


Quote:


I might be nuts saying this (or if this is accurate it's probably been said already), but Putin's actions and language remind of Hitler in the mid-1930s. It's like he's baiting in order to have an excuse to act.



Hitler took a Germany near its economic nadir and rode the rebound to economic and military strength. Putin has driven Russia on that downward spiral and is trying to hang on to both the power and the graft that goes with it.



Not a fan of Putin, but to be fair he took over a bankrupt nation and brought them back a long way. They're in a bad spot now due to their reliance on oil.



He didn't bring them back so much as oil prices did. He restored their power and prestige on the back of buoyed oil prices.



Sure but he gets the credit from his people. He's still amazingly popular at home.


Most autocrats with propaganda arms enjoy high favorability ratings.
not sure on this, but they russian suk-27? had been  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 10:09 am : link
bombing a turkoman village right near the border? who were the turkomens supporting and transporting for, and lets not be naïve. I am really guessing here.

BUT, if and when the northern nations agree to shut down the jihadis, and if the Russians want to help, that would be a good thing.

now, if any nato member wanted to secretly play the jihadi card, and keeping in mind the 10 million refuges from Syria alone, as well as 300k dead, that might be one step to far into cynicism.
RE: RE: airspace and communications  
Watson : 11/24/2015 10:17 am : link
In comment 12642015 TheLocalGypsy said:
Quote:
In comment 12641953 ColHowPepper said:


Quote:


One of the big issues with Russian AF involvement was rules of engagement (with NATO/US) and communications. One of the early reports, not yet confirmed, is that Turkish warnings to stay clear of its airspace or risk being target of AAC was that the pilots were on different frequencies and the warnings went unheard.

Remains to be seen who might falsely claim that, if not true, and how it would play to national advantage.



Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.

The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."

Russian doctrine is to probe other countries airspace. They do it to us all the time. This time, they got called on it.


Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.



Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I am a million miles from being an expert on any of this  
schabadoo : 11/24/2015 10:19 am : link
In comment 12642019 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12642009 schabadoo said:


Quote:


In comment 12641976 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


In comment 12641958 schabadoo said:


Quote:


In comment 12641918 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


In comment 12641910 Go Terps said:


Quote:


I might be nuts saying this (or if this is accurate it's probably been said already), but Putin's actions and language remind of Hitler in the mid-1930s. It's like he's baiting in order to have an excuse to act.



Hitler took a Germany near its economic nadir and rode the rebound to economic and military strength. Putin has driven Russia on that downward spiral and is trying to hang on to both the power and the graft that goes with it.



Not a fan of Putin, but to be fair he took over a bankrupt nation and brought them back a long way. They're in a bad spot now due to their reliance on oil.



He didn't bring them back so much as oil prices did. He restored their power and prestige on the back of buoyed oil prices.



Sure but he gets the credit from his people. He's still amazingly popular at home.



Most autocrats with propaganda arms enjoy high favorability ratings.


As do leaders that turn around bankrupt economies. He's got a lot working for him domestically.
RE: RE: airspace and communications  
DC Gmen Fan : 11/24/2015 10:25 am : link
In comment 12642015 TheLocalGypsy said:


Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.

The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."

[/quote]

C'mon Gypsy - you know the "guard police" are probably just as bad over there ;)

"You're on GUARD!"
RE: RE: airspace and communications  
DC Gmen Fan : 11/24/2015 10:26 am : link
In comment 12642015 TheLocalGypsy said:
Quote:

Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.

The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."



C'mon Gypsy - you know the "guard police" are probably just as bad over there ;)

"You're on GUARD!"
As another poster cited...  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 10:29 am : link
he upped the pace of extraction so as to diminish Russia's existing oil reserves markedly and made the economy so dependent on resources that when the price of oil dropped (thank you Saudi) the Russian economy contracted. He has resorted to foreign distractions to try to unite the country behind him and has a propaganda arm working for him that would make the Soviets proud. He comes from a tradition that is reasonably comfortable with "benevolent" autocracy but he understands that if the economy doesn't improve his domestic support will erode.
RE: RE: RE: Will Putin purport to send 150,000 troops into Turkey now?  
Deej : 11/24/2015 10:30 am : link
In comment 12641960 Boy Cord said:
Quote:
In comment 12641787 Deej said:


Quote:


In comment 12641778 Ben in Tampa said:


Quote:


His shtick is the World's Tough Guy and suddenly he finds his country spread a little thin.



And yet there is almost reverence for his purported strong and decisive leadership in some corners.

He's really a fool. He has taken his country down a path of economic ruin and international ostracism. Yes, I know people are going to say he needed to do all this for internal reasons etc. That makes him a really, really shitty leader -- ruining his country merely to hold power.



It's the only hand he can play, unless he wants to dust off some Cold War nukes.

Turkey frustrates the hell out of me.


Well he could give up power. This is the problem with someone sticking around too long. They end up relying on repression and gimmicks to stay in power. It was true of Harper in Canada -- he didnt lose because he was conservative, he lost because people in Canada were really tired of his shit. We're really fortunate as a nation that our presidents are out after 2 terms. I means we dont have to blow our national capital to keep the leader in power.

Putin is putting Putin ahead of Russia. Great leader.
RE: As another poster cited...  
schabadoo : 11/24/2015 10:35 am : link
In comment 12642048 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
he upped the pace of extraction so as to diminish Russia's existing oil reserves markedly and made the economy so dependent on resources that when the price of oil dropped (thank you Saudi) the Russian economy contracted. He has resorted to foreign distractions to try to unite the country behind him and has a propaganda arm working for him that would make the Soviets proud. He comes from a tradition that is reasonably comfortable with "benevolent" autocracy but he understands that if the economy doesn't improve his domestic support will erode.


He's been in power over 15 years. He has plenty of enemies to cast blame on for any future economic problems. He has plenty of distractions for his people. Unless some oligarchs turn on him, he should be fine.
Putin has to put Putin ahead of everything  
Patrick77 : 11/24/2015 10:40 am : link
Once he is out of power he could very likely be a deadman. He might be the richest man in the world according to many reports and has created a state and organized crime structure that carries out hits in broad daylight all over the world. If he ever leaves power he can't ensure his own safety from the next regime.
RE: not sure on this, but they russian suk-27? had been  
Watson : 11/24/2015 10:40 am : link
In comment 12642021 idiotsavant said:
Quote:
bombing a turkoman village right near the border? who were the turkomens supporting and transporting for


As you may know, they are Syrians of Turkish origin. Not treated well by the Assad regime. Villages also attacked by ISIS. Align with freedom fighters against Assad (not ISIS). We have accused the Russians of not just bombing ISIS, but other groups fighting Assad. So this would appear to fit.
Erdogan v Putin is like Rex v Bellichik  
NoPeanutz : 11/24/2015 10:43 am : link
Yea, technically theyre equals on the field. Coaches, field generals, "strategic masterminds," democratically elected autocrats, whatever. But one is all talk and one is all action. And everybody knows what will happen when their teams eventually meet on the field.
If it's 20-13, or if it's a Thanksgiving buttfumble, the result will surprise no one.
RE: RE: RE: airspace and communications  
TheLocalGypsy : 11/24/2015 10:47 am : link
In comment 12642043 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:
In comment 12642015 TheLocalGypsy said:


Quote:



Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.

The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."





C'mon Gypsy - you know the "guard police" are probably just as bad over there ;)

"You're on GUARD!"


They aren't. They use guard to have conversations instead of 123.45.

You tend to listen to guard more often in the middle east, especially when you're flying through Syrian or Iranian SA rings.
RE: Putin has to put Putin ahead of everything  
Deej : 11/24/2015 10:49 am : link
In comment 12642071 Patrick77 said:
Quote:
Once he is out of power he could very likely be a deadman. He might be the richest man in the world according to many reports and has created a state and organized crime structure that carries out hits in broad daylight all over the world. If he ever leaves power he can't ensure his own safety from the next regime.


You're right. Not a defense of him though.

I dont mean to carry on. I just hear a little too much non-negative assessments of Putin. Trying to stay nice, but there are some in this country who have come awfully close to praising his leadership and his leadership style in the past year. And it's bullshit. He's a goon with no friends. Pallin' up next to the most reviled regimes in the world.
RE: Erdogan v Putin is like Rex v Bellichik  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 10:49 am : link
In comment 12642078 NoPeanutz said:
Quote:
Yea, technically theyre equals on the field. Coaches, field generals, "strategic masterminds," democratically elected autocrats, whatever. But one is all talk and one is all action. And everybody knows what will happen when their teams eventually meet on the field.
If it's 20-13, or if it's a Thanksgiving buttfumble, the result will surprise no one.


Except Turkey is in NATO, so if they're in the right in the dispute they (theoretically) should be able to count on Europe and America to intervene.
RE: RE: Erdogan v Putin is like Rex v Bellichik  
njm : 11/24/2015 10:54 am : link
In comment 12642092 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12642078 NoPeanutz said:


Quote:


Yea, technically theyre equals on the field. Coaches, field generals, "strategic masterminds," democratically elected autocrats, whatever. But one is all talk and one is all action. And everybody knows what will happen when their teams eventually meet on the field.
If it's 20-13, or if it's a Thanksgiving buttfumble, the result will surprise no one.



Except Turkey is in NATO, so if they're in the right in the dispute they (theoretically) should be able to count on Europe and America to intervene.


I wonder whether we're seeing the end of NATO, either implicitly or outright. The definitive test would be the Baltic states.

Hello......Angela......Hello....are you out there?.....Angela?
RE: RE: RE: airspace and communications  
SwirlingEddie : 11/24/2015 10:57 am : link
In comment 12642029 Watson said:
Quote:
<snip>

Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.

Link - ( New Window )


Have they looked in the area of the Grand Banks?
;)
Deej  
Patrick77 : 11/24/2015 11:01 am : link
Absolutely Putin is a monster and I wish all the worst things in the world for him. I can't comprehend the people that admire him or think he provides any value. The guy has gutted the economy and forced any free thinker, talented person, or rich person to have a getaway plan out of Russia. The public was sick of him years ago, he solved that by crushing dissent, entertaining the public with war, controlling all media, controlling all politics, and playing his allies and opponents off of each other.

Putin is a product of his environment and as ridiculous as his actions are he is pigeon-holed into future actions by his past actions and the mob mentality and propaganda media he has created. There are ultra-nationalists in Russia that make Putin look like a liberal, law-abiding, pansy by comparison. His foray in Ukraine is actually deemed by many as not being nearly enough. He has to pander to the oligarchs, military, church, extremists, nationalists, chechens, etc... to prevent the whole thing from falling apart.

But all he is really doing is making sure it falls apart sooner. Without a revamp of the economy, corruption, and politics in Russia there isn't a whole lot anyone can do to stop the downward spiral. He is just in survival mode at this point.
Russian Chopper shot down by rebels now?  
sb2003 : 11/24/2015 11:08 am : link
Apparently a chopper looking for the pilots was shot down.
Link - ( New Window )
the problem is that as a matter of tactics or strategy  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 11:10 am : link
one cannot successfully serve too many purposes at the same time. It just does not work.

And one must be able to take difficult moral decisions.

Now, if we accept, that most do, that stable nation states pose less of a threat to our homeland than asymmetric threats like ISIL and AQ do..

And, if you see that there is a -process- just getting started, whereby Russia might align with our side, western nation states, against the asymmetric threats such as AQ and ISIL etc, and accept that that this is a process worth investing, in...however early and flawed..

keeping in mind that one has left the vacuum, into which the Russians flew, keeping in mind that you want to allow for that the Russians might turn westward towards our side, then you also allow for the Turks to play both sides, then turn around and let the Turks poke Putin in the eye like that, it raises the question of who is forming policy here
RE: RE: RE: RE: airspace and communications  
njm : 11/24/2015 11:12 am : link
In comment 12642105 SwirlingEddie said:
Quote:
In comment 12642029 Watson said:


Quote:


<snip>

Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.

Link - ( New Window )



Have they looked in the area of the Grand Banks?
;)


Vladimir, you've lost ANOTHER submarine


Fellow NATO member France  
BigBlueCane : 11/24/2015 11:21 am : link
probably isn't going to be pleased with Turkey right now. They've also been working with the Russians more actively.

Things could get interesting soon.
RE: RE: RE: RE: airspace and communications  
Watson : 11/24/2015 11:21 am : link
In comment 12642105 SwirlingEddie said:
Quote:
In comment 12642029 Watson said:


Quote:


<snip>

Yes, Russians have a history of pushing the envelope. Just not air but sea. There has been an on going search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Scotland. French also joined the search.

Link - ( New Window )



Have they looked in the area of the Grand Banks?
;)


Haha could be there now. It's been over 10 days since it was spotted off of Scotland.
RE: Russian Chopper shot down by rebels now?  
njm : 11/24/2015 11:27 am : link
In comment 12642132 sb2003 said:
Quote:
Apparently a chopper looking for the pilots was shot down. Link - ( New Window )


Don't overlook the fact that it's Latakia Province.
And even if Turkey is in the wrong here...  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 11:30 am : link
NATO has a very difficult choice to make. ISIS is not the juggernaut some seem to think it to be, it continues to exist because of the timidity and the contradictory interests of those who could destroy it. It would retain latent terror capabilities, but these are not necessarily existential threats.

In the medium term, the more serious threat is going to be a Russia in economic freefall. If that decline leads to political instability, or even if it doesn't, Russia will continue to pose security challenges for the states on virtually of its borders, most notably in the Baltic, and should NATO decline to stand behind Turkey that point will not be lost in Vilnius, Tallinn and Riga.
also video  
J : 11/24/2015 11:41 am : link
of people shouting 'allah akhbar' and shooting at the pilots as they parachuted to earth
RE: also video  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 11:44 am : link
In comment 12642205 J said:
Quote:
of people shouting 'allah akhbar' and shooting at the pilots as they parachuted to earth


I believe that is older footage that has nothing to do with today's events, it is just making the rounds again.
RE: also video  
BMac : 11/24/2015 11:49 am : link
In comment 12642205 J said:
Quote:
of people shouting 'allah akhbar' and shooting at the pilots as they parachuted to earth


Must be the same crowd as was at the soccer match...oh, wait!
Does this mean Turkey will have to do something other than  
Ten Ton Hammer : 11/24/2015 11:53 am : link
be annoying and persecute Kurds?
RE: Does this mean Turkey will have to do something other than  
njm : 11/24/2015 11:54 am : link
In comment 12642223 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
be annoying and persecute Kurds?


Yes, but they will still be annoying and persecute the Kurds.
NATO is having an emergency meeting about this ... in Brussels.  
Del Shofner : 11/24/2015 11:55 am : link
Sheesh.
RE: NATO is having an emergency meeting about this ... in Brussels.  
Deej : 11/24/2015 12:02 pm : link
In comment 12642225 Del Shofner said:
Quote:
Sheesh.


Why Sheesh?
I am very against Putin but this shoot-down is unfortunate.  
Del Shofner : 11/24/2015 12:05 pm : link
Also, the piece of Turkey that the Russian plane flew over is a small protuberance into Syria, and the plane was going to and from Syria. It doesn't seem like that big of a deal, more like Turkey wanting to make a statement, for reasons not clear to me. But I don't claim any expertise.

RE: RE: NATO is having an emergency meeting about this ... in Brussels.  
Del Shofner : 11/24/2015 12:06 pm : link
In comment 12642233 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12642225 Del Shofner said:


Quote:


Sheesh.



Why Sheesh?


Because Brussels is on strict lockdown for the third straight day on account of ISIS. Symbolic of how things are going at the moment.
Good post Patrick  
Deej : 11/24/2015 12:06 pm : link
You really have to wonder about Russia. Im in the camp that says Putin is digging Russia into a deeper and deeper ditch. His "bold leadership" is actually a series of terrible decisions internationally, though probably good for short term domestic consumption.

What happens when Russia hits rock bottom? Is that an okay outcome, or do we have to lift sanctions or lean on the Saudis to prevent that? Can we even lean on the Saudis? I've read that their "refusal" to put a floor on oil prices is an attempt to hammer price sensitive US projects, and also to see how much power they have to set pricing in a world where the US and Russia can be major exporters unlike in days gone by. Is our lever the US export ban, that some want lifted?
RE: I am very against Putin but this shoot-down is unfortunate.  
Deej : 11/24/2015 12:09 pm : link
In comment 12642241 Del Shofner said:
Quote:
Also, the piece of Turkey that the Russian plane flew over is a small protuberance into Syria, and the plane was going to and from Syria. It doesn't seem like that big of a deal, more like Turkey wanting to make a statement, for reasons not clear to me. But I don't claim any expertise.



I dont know how unfortunate it is, other than for the pilot. As for the small protuberance, Russia could have directed its jet further south, or sought permission. Flying into Turkish airspace and ignoring warnings (if true) is not okay. And if intentional, what are the chances it was a rogue pilot and not an intentional provocation?
Bloomberg article - rare for stray fighter planes to be shot down.  
Del Shofner : 11/24/2015 12:09 pm : link
.
Link - ( New Window )
Del  
AP in Halfmoon : 11/24/2015 12:12 pm : link
That was my question. Why would Turkey do this? It seems like a very excessive use of force
RE: Good post Patrick  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 12:16 pm : link
In comment 12642245 Deej said:
Quote:
You really have to wonder about Russia. Im in the camp that says Putin is digging Russia into a deeper and deeper ditch. His "bold leadership" is actually a series of terrible decisions internationally, though probably good for short term domestic consumption.

What happens when Russia hits rock bottom? Is that an okay outcome, or do we have to lift sanctions or lean on the Saudis to prevent that? Can we even lean on the Saudis? I've read that their "refusal" to put a floor on oil prices is an attempt to hammer price sensitive US projects, and also to see how much power they have to set pricing in a world where the US and Russia can be major exporters unlike in days gone by. Is our lever the US export ban, that some want lifted?


I understand the Saudi posture on prices to be essentially doing our bidding in the foreign policy realm with the tacit understanding that it will severely undercut our domestic extraction, specifically higher-dollar extraction methods like fracking. And I assume it is done with our knowledge and probably our informal approval.
RE: Del  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 12:23 pm : link
In comment 12642267 AP in Halfmoon said:
Quote:
That was my question. Why would Turkey do this? It seems like a very excessive use of force


Because these violations have happened on numerous occasions. Turkey is a regional power, it cannot allow Russia to act with impunity in and around its borders.
hmmm  
giantfan2000 : 11/24/2015 12:30 pm : link
I guess Putin's adventure in Syria that was applauded by some in US
because Putin was a strong leader who did not lead from behind
isn't turning out so well

gee noone could have predicted

RE: RE: Del  
Ten Ton Hammer : 11/24/2015 12:30 pm : link
In comment 12642287 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12642267 AP in Halfmoon said:


Quote:


That was my question. Why would Turkey do this? It seems like a very excessive use of force



Because these violations have happened on numerous occasions. Turkey is a regional power, it cannot allow Russia to act with impunity in and around its borders.


Yep. Not that I have any sympathy for them, but they did sort of have a right to have their national sovereignty respected.
well  
idiotsavant : 11/24/2015 12:33 pm : link
If Putin is a nihilistic opportunist who has not hung his hat on any particular ideology

and Jihadis are nihilistic opportunists who -have- hung their hats on an ideology, one that says that we are devils, then Putin can be turned towards our side, whereas Jihadis cannot.

For those who have served (respect) and don't see ISIL as a major threat, I submit that we need to settle down Syria one way or the other; 10 million refuges and 300k dead is a very serious geopolitical and ethical situation.

Small as they may be, we don't want the jihadis to be like the virus that one never finished taking the anti-biotic for, to morph into something worse, just by surviving so long, which process has already started.
Maybe Dune  
Deej : 11/24/2015 12:36 pm : link
the Saudis are killing our domestic exploration right now. Whether that is with our tacit agreement/urging we just dont know.
Deej - don't know Russia could ever get permission.  
Watson : 11/24/2015 12:41 pm : link
Besides Turkish airspace, they have complained about Russia targeting Turkmen. Also, missile used to takedown helicopter was US made. Thing sure can get complicated.

"Turkmen rebels have been fighting to oust Syrian President Assad, whom the Russians support, since 2011. A U.S.-led coalition has been bombing Islamic State targets in the war-ravaged country, but has accused Russia of targeting U.S.-backed rebels such as the Turkmen instead of the Islamic State"

"Turkey summoned the Russian ambassador twice in October after Russian fighter planes breached Turkish airspace. At the time, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkish pilots had been instructed to intercept any Russian aircraft that enters Turkey."

"The ambassador, Andrei Karlov, was summoned again Friday to protest Russian bombing of Turkmen villages in northern Syria close to the Turkish border. The ambassador was told that ongoing attacks on the villages "could lead to serious consequences," the foreign ministry said.

Link - ( New Window )
RE: Maybe Dune  
Dunedin81 : 11/24/2015 12:44 pm : link
In comment 12642306 Deej said:
Quote:
the Saudis are killing our domestic exploration right now. Whether that is with our tacit agreement/urging we just dont know.


You don't get something for nothing. The Administration isn't terribly comfortable with those means of extraction anyway, it was the economic engine driving our rather lukewarm recovery for a couple years but the environmental cost/benefit was always a little dicier. Given the chance to let 'market forces' rein in some of their excesses while sticking a thumb in the eye of Russia, Iran and Venezuela probably seemed like a pretty fair trade-off. It has also pushed gas prices down to levels the American public can stomach. It's not a criticism, I just assumed that was part and parcel of the calculus.
RE: Maybe Dune  
schabadoo : 11/24/2015 12:53 pm : link
In comment 12642306 Deej said:
Quote:
the Saudis are killing our domestic exploration right now. Whether that is with our tacit agreement/urging we just dont know.


Well, overproduction is killing all expensive forms of extraction. The Saudis could stop it by slowing their output, but are saying publicly that they don't want to lose market share. Who knows if that's the real reason.
British may also make air strikes. Yesterday, Israel targeted  
Watson : 11/24/2015 1:06 pm : link
Hezbollah inside Syria. Apparently, Syrian rebels have been asking for their help.

Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.
RE: RE: Good post Patrick  
RB^2 : 11/24/2015 1:09 pm : link
In comment 12642276 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12642245 Deej said:


Quote:


You really have to wonder about Russia. Im in the camp that says Putin is digging Russia into a deeper and deeper ditch. His "bold leadership" is actually a series of terrible decisions internationally, though probably good for short term domestic consumption.

What happens when Russia hits rock bottom? Is that an okay outcome, or do we have to lift sanctions or lean on the Saudis to prevent that? Can we even lean on the Saudis? I've read that their "refusal" to put a floor on oil prices is an attempt to hammer price sensitive US projects, and also to see how much power they have to set pricing in a world where the US and Russia can be major exporters unlike in days gone by. Is our lever the US export ban, that some want lifted?



I understand the Saudi posture on prices to be essentially doing our bidding in the foreign policy realm with the tacit understanding that it will severely undercut our domestic extraction, specifically higher-dollar extraction methods like fracking. And I assume it is done with our knowledge and probably our informal approval.

The Saudis don't need our approval to do this. They are responding a new reality in oil markets - one where the governing dynamic has flipped from increased demand from China putting upward pressure on oil prices to increased supply from the US putting downward pressure on oil prices. Because we are now the swing producer, the global price of oil will effectively be capped at our marginal cost of production, which we've innovated down and can potentially further reduce.

This is very good for us. It gives us options. We have a lot more leverage now over countries whose livelihood depends much more on fossil fuels than does ours.
RE: British may also make air strikes. Yesterday, Israel targeted  
njm : 11/24/2015 1:13 pm : link
In comment 12642366 Watson said:
Quote:
Hezbollah inside Syria. Apparently, Syrian rebels have been asking for their help.

Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.


Israel has targeted Hezbollah a number of times the last few months. Rather than support for Syrian rebels, I believe the triggering event usually is related to Hezbollah movement of weapons and/or personel towards Lebanon.
RE: RE: Del  
Patrick77 : 11/24/2015 1:13 pm : link
In comment 12642287 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12642267 AP in Halfmoon said:


Quote:


That was my question. Why would Turkey do this? It seems like a very excessive use of force



Because these violations have happened on numerous occasions. Turkey is a regional power, it cannot allow Russia to act with impunity in and around its borders.


Back in early October they publicly stated they would shoot down planes over their territory. They made a black and white statement and stood behind it.
This could end up being a very big deal  
RB^2 : 11/24/2015 1:22 pm : link
To satisfy his domestic audience, Putin has to retaliate. But he can't. This has the potential to finally expose him as the emperor with no clothes at home.

This fool just continues paint himself into a corner.
RE: RE: airspace and communications  
Mike From Brielle : 11/24/2015 1:25 pm : link
In comment 12642015 TheLocalGypsy said:
Quote:
In comment 12641953 ColHowPepper said:


Quote:


One of the big issues with Russian AF involvement was rules of engagement (with NATO/US) and communications. One of the early reports, not yet confirmed, is that Turkish warnings to stay clear of its airspace or risk being target of AAC was that the pilots were on different frequencies and the warnings went unheard.

Remains to be seen who might falsely claim that, if not true, and how it would play to national advantage.



Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.

The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."

Russian doctrine is to probe other countries airspace. They do it to us all the time. This time, they got called on it.


This may not apply to Military Radio's. During the early part of Vietnam the North Vietnamese used to squawk on our Guard Channels (243) and effectively jam our attack nets. There have been work a rounds to this issue for a long time now, I would guess. I would also guess that the Russians have also found some technique or procedure to obviate this type of interference.

In any case the pot is beginning to boil. Things are now happening spontaneously seeking more fuel for the fire. IMHO we should create an Alawite Homeland with access to the Russian Air and Sea facilities but done so in a manner that does not create a Danzig corridor type situation. Assad and his cronies should be given safe passage to this Alawite Homeland or die in Damascus. This should be separated off from the rest of Syria with the Russians on the Alawite side of the border and US/ NATO troops on the other separating the warring parties. ISIS should then be crushed using to the greatest degree possible local forces but augmented when necessary by American resources.

Negotiations should then start to try to resolve the other issues endemic to the region on a case by case basis.
On the oil I tend to agree with RB  
Patrick77 : 11/24/2015 1:28 pm : link
The Saudis are pushing out the high cost producers. I don't think they are really targeting fracking or believing they can stop it. Fracking can jump on and offline insanely fast.

The oil sands in alberta for example are shelving a lot of projects that would come online years and decades from now because of current prices. The Arctic, North Sea, Russia, the oil sands, those projects I assume are being shelved or stalled. If prices stay low enough long enough a lot of projects never get started or are shut down.

Frackers are just waiting. Yeah some might go bankrupt or lose money but the equipment and workers will all be readily available as soon as it is profitable again. And each well is different, there isn't some
Magic number that shuts down all fracking. Low prices are also creating efficiencies in drilling. The average rig is a massively inefficient operation and there are tons of ways to cut costs already being undertaken. For example most rigs in western Canada have workers driving massive diesel trucks with slip tanks. The reason? Because everyone turns a blind eye to stealing diesel fuel from the rig tanks. Even last year companies were sending letters to suppliers and contractors asking for voluntary renegotiation on contracts and rates.

The Saudi oil pumping may well be part of a large political plan as well, but I think there are other aspects to it that make sense for their business. Whether the plan works or not is another thing.
RE: RE: RE: airspace and communications  
Mike From Brielle : 11/24/2015 1:34 pm : link
In comment 12642414 Mike From Brielle said:
Quote:
In comment 12642015 TheLocalGypsy said:


Quote:


In comment 12641953 ColHowPepper said:


Quote:


One of the big issues with Russian AF involvement was rules of engagement (with NATO/US) and communications. One of the early reports, not yet confirmed, is that Turkish warnings to stay clear of its airspace or risk being target of AAC was that the pilots were on different frequencies and the warnings went unheard.

Remains to be seen who might falsely claim that, if not true, and how it would play to national advantage.



Doesn't matter. There are "Guard" frequencies (121.5/243.) that every pilot is required to listen to. Whenever a radio call is made on Guard, it overrides whatever else may be transmitting.

The call goes something like this: "Unknown aircraft, unknown aircraft, on position NXX.XX EXXX.XX, squawking XXXX, you are violating Turkish airspace, turn away."

Russian doctrine is to probe other countries airspace. They do it to us all the time. This time, they got called on it.



This may not apply to Military Radio's. During the early part of Vietnam the North Vietnamese used to squawk on our Guard Channels (243) and effectively jam our attack nets. There have been work a rounds to this issue for a long time now, I would guess. I would also guess that the Russians have also found some technique or procedure to obviate this type of interference.

In any case the pot is beginning to boil. Things are now happening spontaneously seeking more fuel for the fire. IMHO we should create an Alawite Homeland with access to the Russian Air and Sea facilities but done so in a manner that does not create a Danzig corridor type situation. Assad and his cronies should be given safe passage to this Alawite Homeland or die in Damascus. This should be separated off from the rest of Syria with the Russians on the Alawite side of the border and US/ NATO troops on the other separating the warring parties. ISIS should then be crushed using to the greatest degree possible local forces but augmented when necessary by American resources.

Negotiations should then start to try to resolve the other issues endemic to the region on a case by case basis.


Also don’t forget to eliminate all the old Iraqi Baathist Intelligence Officers that have caused all of this problem.
RE: RE: British may also make air strikes. Yesterday, Israel targeted  
Watson : 11/24/2015 1:59 pm : link
In comment 12642380 njm said:
Quote:
In comment 12642366 Watson said:


Quote:


Hezbollah inside Syria. Apparently, Syrian rebels have been asking for their help.

Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.



Israel has targeted Hezbollah a number of times the last few months. Rather than support for Syrian rebels, I believe the triggering event usually is related to Hezbollah movement of weapons and/or personel towards Lebanon.


Yes that's true but apparently Syrian Rebels through intermediaries have been in contact with Israel.
RE: RE: RE: British may also make air strikes. Yesterday, Israel targeted  
njm : 11/24/2015 2:59 pm : link
In comment 12642491 Watson said:
Quote:
In comment 12642380 njm said:


Quote:


In comment 12642366 Watson said:


Quote:


Hezbollah inside Syria. Apparently, Syrian rebels have been asking for their help.

Syrian airspace is getting very crowded.



Israel has targeted Hezbollah a number of times the last few months. Rather than support for Syrian rebels, I believe the triggering event usually is related to Hezbollah movement of weapons and/or personel towards Lebanon.



Yes that's true but apparently Syrian Rebels through intermediaries have been in contact with Israel.


That would work to their mutual benefit.
Getting more complicated  
natefit : 11/24/2015 3:05 pm : link
Meanwhile, a Russian marine was killed on Tuesday during an operation to rescue the two pilots, who were flying an Su-24 warplane, according to RIA Novosti.
Link - ( New Window )
I'm not sure it's two pilots any more, per the article you linked -  
Del Shofner : 11/24/2015 3:37 pm : link
"One of the two pilots was killed in the air by fire from the ground, according to Russia's state-run news agency RIA Novosti. The fate of the second pilot wasn't disclosed."
.  
Bill2 : 11/24/2015 4:53 pm : link
Saudi and US and the majors are all highly coordinated and planful.
sorry  
Bill2 : 11/24/2015 4:59 pm : link
The House of Saud and the US is highly coordinated when it comes to price output defense and the reserve currency and the NA interests of the majors are interrelated. The American engineering companies and the US petrochemical companies feast over there.
according to Vox media  
idiotsavant : 11/25/2015 2:04 pm : link
this is the leader of the Turkomen group that the Russians were targeting, the ones Erdogan says 'not ISIL'.

but, obviously, see the turk/Isil flags,

I mean its possible but not likely that Vox got duped, but.

linko  
idiotsavant : 11/25/2015 2:07 pm : link
http://www.vox.com/2015/11/24/9792986/turkey-russia-turkmen
the next thing you know  
idiotsavant : 11/28/2015 1:33 pm : link
(The Guardian)

Turkish journalists arrested for exposing Turkish intelligence possible arming of Islamic fundamentalists, which, apparently, the regular Turkish military was not on board with? or something:

''

According to Cumhuriyet, Turkish security forces in January 2014 intercepted a convoy of trucks near the Syrian border and discovered boxes of what the daily described as weapons and ammunition to be sent to rebels fighting against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

It linked the seized trucks to the Turkish national intelligence organisation (MIT).

The revelations, published in May, caused a political storm in Turkey, and enraged president Recep Tayyip Erdogan who vowed Dundar would pay a “heavy price”.

He personally filed a criminal complaint against Dundar, 54, demanding he serve multiple life sentences.

Turkey has vehemently denied aiding Islamist rebels in Syria, such as the Islamic State group, although it wants to see Assad toppled.

“Don’t worry, this ruling is nothing but a badge of honour to us,” Dundar told reporters and civil society representatives at the court before he was taken into custody.




Reporters Without Borders had earlier on Thursday urged the judge hearing the case to dismiss the charges against the pair, condemning the trial as “political persecution”.

The Cumhuriyet daily was awarded the media watchdog’s 2015 Press Freedom Prize just last week, with Dundar travelling to Strasbourg to receive the award.

“If these two journalists are imprisoned, it will be additional evidence that the Turkish authorities are ready to use methods worthy of a bygone age in order to suppress independent journalism in Turkey,” said RSF secretary general Christophe Deloire in a statement.''
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