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NFT: Would Mets fans be ok with this trade? Thoughts?

Jints in Carolina : 11/24/2015 12:30 pm
This trade sends Rays reliver Jake McGee, whose value may not be a far cry from present-day Craig Kimbrel, to the Mets for C Kevin Plawecki and RHRP Hansel Robles. That's plenty of team control, both players only just reached the majors in 2015, so it's easy to see the plug-and-play appeal.

Robles pitched 54.0 innings over 57 games in the regular season and had trouble leaving guys on base in his rookie year, but still turned in a 3.67 ERA and 3.91 FIP with a 28.1% strikeout rate and .188 BAA. His troubles came from walks (8.3%) and longballs (8 allowed). He should get better results over time, though the walks are a problem.

Plawecki is also a tempting get, his framing run rate ranked him 8th in baseball, according to B-Pro's leaderboard, and he has a history of offense in the minors.

Plawecki may never hit, and Robles may have his deadarm return that shelved his 2014 season, but McGee could be just as much of an injury risk and is getting expensive.
I wouldn't  
pjcas18 : 11/24/2015 12:37 pm : link
do that.

I don't like the idea of trading youth (especially at the catcher position) for a middle reliever.

I'd open the vault for Aroldis Chapman and make him my 8th inning guy for a year (or Familia my 8th inning guy), but middle relievers in my unscientific view tend to be inconsistent from year to year and not worth that price (Plawecki more than Robles).
RE: I wouldn't  
pjcas18 : 11/24/2015 12:39 pm : link
In comment 12642310 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
do that.

I don't like the idea of trading youth (especially at the catcher position) for a middle reliever.

I'd open the vault for Aroldis Chapman and make him my 8th inning guy for a year (or Familia my 8th inning guy), but middle relievers in my unscientific view tend to be inconsistent from year to year and not worth that price (Plawecki more than Robles).


adding to this is the Mets don't have another backup catcher and d'Arnaud has not exactly been what anyone would call durable.
I don't trust TDA's health  
Giants2012 : 11/24/2015 12:42 pm : link
His injuries are often a fluke yet have occurred over the years at several levels.
I  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 12:43 pm : link
wouldn't do it. But I'd 100% trade Nimmo+
not even close  
Vanzetti : 11/24/2015 12:48 pm : link
catchers are the most difficult commodity to find.
Not plawecki  
sshin05 : 11/24/2015 1:01 pm : link
but robles is fine and then some probably. Rays have no intention of trading an asset like McGee so you might have to bowl them over.
RE: Not plawecki  
Jints in Carolina : 11/24/2015 1:24 pm : link
In comment 12642356 sshin05 said:
Quote:
but robles is fine and then some probably. Rays have no intention of trading an asset like McGee so you might have to bowl them over.


Oh they are very open to trading McGee...and Boxberger.
Doesn't  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 1:32 pm : link
mean a ton at this point but the Rays and Rangers were 2 teams (along with the Mets) who reportedly loved Nimmo pre-draft. I wouldn't be willing to give a headliner better than him for a non-closer reliever (and I love McGee). If you really believed in Cecchini I'd probably consider Rosario but I'm not a scout.
I wouldn't deal Plawecki right now  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 2:01 pm : link
I think he's going to be a solid player and TdA's injury proneness isn't going away.

I saw someone suggest Carlos Gonzalez for the Mets - that's an interesting idea. He's just as solid as most of the FA out there and only has 2 years 37M left on his deal. If there was any way to get him without Wheeler I'd be on board, but I doubt Nimmo+ gets it done.
Mets must really be into Zobrist  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 2:11 pm : link
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 19s19 seconds ago
Tom Verducci said on MLB Network this morning that he heard #Nationals and #Mets would be high bidders on Zobrist. Remains to be seen.

Presuming it will take a 4 year deal to get him, if you structure the back half right, it could be feasible that he's just a well paid bench player then.


Here's a very solid article from Cameron on what Zobrist's value is  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 2:32 pm : link
I think his estimate is high and the likely number will come in more in line with Heyman's figure (4/60M). That's certainly rich, but I do think there's a way to structure it to hedge those final 2 years.

Years 1 & 2 (18M) - BZ is a solid bet for the 5 total wins above replacement Cameron projects in each of these years playing mostly at 2B. Not a value deal, but fair - and if he happens to crank out 1 more prime level season (like Granderson did this year) it will look great.

Year 3 (14M) - He turns 37 in May of this season and it's likely that this is when things will start getting hairy. But at the same time we're planning to pay Cuddyer 12.5M this year (turns 37 this year) and it's not that prohibitive to the budget having him as a bench player. Would be even better if he ends up not being completely cooked.

Year 4 (10M) - at this point I think you need to plan on him being an expensive bench player like Uribe was this year, and potentially a movable contract if you kick in some money. Almost like a defacto 3-4M buyout year.

Biggest question to me as it relates to Zobrist is what they'd do with Herrera.
Figuring Out What To Pay Ben Zobrist - ( New Window )
I'm not sure I'd do that ...  
BronxBob : 11/24/2015 3:20 pm : link
... if I were the Royals. But ... I don't know whether that overvalues Plawecki -- objectively and because the Royals have a durable catcher -- or undervalues McGee.
RE: I'm not sure I'd do that ...  
Deej : 11/24/2015 3:43 pm : link
In comment 12642747 BronxBob said:
Quote:
... if I were the Royals. But ... I don't know whether that overvalues Plawecki -- objectively and because the Royals have a durable catcher -- or undervalues McGee.


Rays
RE: Mets must really be into Zobrist  
Rory : 11/24/2015 3:56 pm : link
In comment 12642537 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 19s19 seconds ago
Tom Verducci said on MLB Network this morning that he heard #Nationals and #Mets would be high bidders on Zobrist. Remains to be seen.

Presuming it will take a 4 year deal to get him, if you structure the back half right, it could be feasible that he's just a well paid bench player then.



Just speculating here but does any of this mean the Mets have lowered expectations for Dilson Herrera ?
from MLBTR  
sshin05 : 11/24/2015 4:07 pm : link
Quote:
The Tigers are one of many teams who showed interest in Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger during the GM Meetings. (Topkin also mentions the Astros, whose interest in the duo was reported a few days ago.) The two relievers have drawn a lot of interest, yet Topkin observes that the Rays arent under any real pressure to make a deal now and could revisit trade talks at midseason if they dont find a current offer to their liking. MLBTR projects McGee to earn $4.7MM in 2016 while Boxberger is still a year away from arbitration eligibility, so the Rays arent yet facing any financial burden from keeping both relievers.


Ok so open to it.
I don't think so Rory - I just think Zobrist is 1 of the few FA  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 4:18 pm : link
that could fill a big role (would likely hit either 2nd or 3rd all year long) without costing 100M. He can also play just about anywhere in the infield as an added bonus. If Wright gets hurt he moves over to 3rd. If you want to give Conforto or Granderson a break vs. a lefty he goes to the OF.

Would suck to block 1 of our most promising young guys, but sometimes you have to play the cards as they are dealt.
I  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 4:23 pm : link
think they realize the window is short and that Zobrist is the best of the cheaper options. I'm sure deep down Sandy would love a budget that allowed him to go after Heyward etc.
quoted verbatim from this site  
chris r : 11/24/2015 4:24 pm : link
.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: I  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 4:29 pm : link
In comment 12642876 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
think they realize the window is short and that Zobrist is the best of the cheaper options. I'm sure deep down Sandy would love a budget that allowed him to go after Heyward etc.


Yup, not to mention being able to bid on guys like Moncada.

I also imagine they had a very similar internal debate around signing Granderson a few years back and that decision obviously looks amazing in retrospect compared to the premium guys we all would have preferred at the time - like Cano or Ellsbury. Granderson was 2 years younger but not coming off as good of a season and also didn't have as much position flexibility.
Moncada  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 4:31 pm : link
looks drool worthy. Unbelievable athlete, could be a truly megastar. I think many teams are going to regret not going after him.
I  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 4:32 pm : link
do wonder what they do with Herrera if they sign Zobrist. As a pure backup it seems like a strange way to use his value. He's basically strictly a 2b and unless Conforto, Wright or Granderson are hurt Zobrist will exclusively play 2b so Herrera's career as a Met becomes a bit tenuous.
I would think signing BZ likely means shopping Herrera  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 4:36 pm : link
over the next 8 months. I wouldn't necessarily feel forced to deal him right away, probably bring him into ST and see how Wright holds up - and then if there's no spot for him he becomes your trade bait for a move at the deadline.
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 4:38 pm : link
Marc Carig ‏@MarcCarig 6m6 minutes ago
Stolmy Pimentel is a New York Met. He gets a minor league deal with an invite to spring training: http://www.baseball-
RE: .  
sphinx : 11/24/2015 4:44 pm : link
In comment 12642895 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Marc Carig ‏@MarcCarig 6m6 minutes ago
Stolmy Pimentel is a New York Met. He gets a minor league deal with an invite to spring training: http://www.baseball-

Link - ( New Window )
RE: I would think signing BZ likely means shopping Herrera  
SethFromAstoria : 11/24/2015 4:49 pm : link
In comment 12642894 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
over the next 8 months. I wouldn't necessarily feel forced to deal him right away, probably bring him into ST and see how Wright holds up - and then if there's no spot for him he becomes your trade bait for a move at the deadline.


disagree. The reason BZ is so perfect is that he can back up a rookie, back up a 3B with a chronic back issue, back up a semi-rookie LF, back up an aging RF, bat righty if need be at 1B. Herrera is the 2B unless he can't cut it, and if he can he still likely needs some breathers as a rookie.
They aren't paying BZ 15M+ and not having him in the OD lineup  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 4:54 pm : link
Yes, he could take 1 or 2 games from Wright per week at 3B. Maybe another game or 2 at either COF spot or 1B vs. a lefty. So perhaps there's enough opportunity to get Herrera a meaningful role. But I'd be really surprised if they pay Zobrist 15m+ and don't plan on him being in the lineup opening (aka him being the starting 2B).
RE: RE: I would think signing BZ likely means shopping Herrera  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 5:00 pm : link
In comment 12642907 SethFromAstoria said:
Quote:
In comment 12642894 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


over the next 8 months. I wouldn't necessarily feel forced to deal him right away, probably bring him into ST and see how Wright holds up - and then if there's no spot for him he becomes your trade bait for a move at the deadline.



disagree. The reason BZ is so perfect is that he can back up a rookie, back up a 3B with a chronic back issue, back up a semi-rookie LF, back up an aging RF, bat righty if need be at 1B. Herrera is the 2B unless he can't cut it, and if he can he still likely needs some breathers as a rookie.


No chance that's the plan. He's going to be the second highest paid player on the team. He's going to be in the lineup 145+ games and that's impossible in the role you described. If he's on the roster he's the starting 2b. No questions asked.
If we sign  
Metnut : 11/24/2015 5:03 pm : link
Zobrist any chance Herrera/Nimmo/Wheeler gets us close to Puig?
The  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 5:04 pm : link
Mets are looking at Zobrist as a major addition and an every day player. Conforto and Granderson are lefty. You aren't benching either one of them vs. righties and Zobrist is lefty as well. The plan 100% will be Zobrist making most starts at 2b with his versatility being a bonus. Not the focus. You are talking about a guy who will likely make 15-17 million per season. This isn't a fun little role player, this is a "core" addition. An every day guy.
That's not a crazy offer but I don't think the Mets go for Puig  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 5:06 pm : link
if the Kershaw stuff is true I think most good organizations aren't going to be willing to pay a big price on Puig.
Zobrist is a switch hitter  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 5:09 pm : link
so he could give them some AB's in place of Conforto/Granderson/Duda. Last year he actually crushed lefties with a 900 OPS.
RE: Zobrist is a switch hitter  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 5:11 pm : link
In comment 12642947 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
so he could give them some AB's in place of Conforto/Granderson/Duda. Last year he actually crushed lefties with a 900 OPS.


Eric,
How often are you benching Granderson (your best player in 2015?) how often are you benching Conforto? C'mon he's getting 60+ million to be an every day player. Herrera will no longer be a starter 0% chance.
Think  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 5:13 pm : link
about it. Even if you bench Conforto 30 times, Granderson 30 times and Wright missed 30 games you'd still be paying Zobrist 15+ million for 90ish starts? It's just not even close to realistic.
NYPOST-  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 5:14 pm : link
They could attempt to fill the spot internally by moving Wilmer Flores to second and keeping Ruben Tejada at shortstop or give 21-year-old Dilson Herrera a shot. Matt Reynolds is another possibility at short if the Mets choose to move on from Tejada, who suffered a fractured right leg on Chase Utleys take-out slide in the NLDS.

None of those options, though, would help a lineup that could not only be missing Murphy, but also Yoenis Cespedes, another free agent who is almost certainly headed for richer pastures.

Thats where Zobrist could fit in Queens, rather than in The Bronx. The Yankees plans, especially this early in the offseason, are subject to change, but they stuck to their pledge last year.
If it's in fact us vs. WSH I wonder where they want to play him  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 5:15 pm : link
Rendon is going to play 2nd or 3rd.
Escobar played well for them at 3rd last year + has a cheap 2017 option.
Espinosa still there backing up both spots.
Zimmerman locked in at 1st.
Werth is locked in LF.

I supposed they could consider Harper in CF or trade Escobar to open up 3rd? Hopefully he liked what he saw from the Mets in the WS and prefers to step into a starting role at his most natural position.
Zobrist  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 5:21 pm : link
has almost no experience at 1b anyway (not that it would make sense in Washington). They probably view him as a CO with Harper moving to CF. Taylor has some talent but .640 OPS is what it is + Werth, Harper, Rendon and Zimmerman are all injury prone.
Dan - I was just clarifying that Zobrist IS a switch hitter  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 5:21 pm : link
Your 5:04 post called him a lefty. My 4:54 post clearly said he would be starting 2B (it was almost exactly the same as your response post to the same poster) so we clearly agree on that part.

And to answer your question I could see him playing 1 total game per week maximum in LF/RF/1B. 3B I could see him playing 1 or 2 depending on whatever the plan becomes with Wright.
His versatility  
DanMetroMan : 11/24/2015 5:29 pm : link
Is a nice bonus but as you said maybe 1-2 games per week he could play somewhere else. He's 100% the starting 2b should they land him
agreed - no way they pay him 15M+ and not have him in the OD lineup  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2015 5:37 pm : link
literally 0% chance. There may be a big enough role for Herrera to get 2-3 starts per week and not feel "wasted", but that's not typically the best way to break into the big leagues. Wright's injury risks does make him (Herrera) a valuable insurance policy though. That's assuming Flores is already playing ED at SS.
The plan would be to start him at 2B  
Deej : 11/24/2015 5:41 pm : link
but the 30-30-30 thing is just if everyone stays healthy. Last 3 seasons Wright has played 112, 134, and 38 games, and he has a permanent back condition now. Granderson is a workhorse, but he's 35; what are the chances he and Conforto are healthy the whole season? People get hurt all the time. Part of planning obviously is the idea that you need replacements not just for expected rest but also unexpected injuries (which in the aggregate ARE expected).

Zobrist helps you back up so many positions. Likely that if we sign him Herrera still gets 100-120 starts IMO.

Not advocating signing Zobrist. Would want to see the #s first.
k we'll see  
SethFromAstoria : 11/24/2015 5:41 pm : link
if I am wrong. I have no clue how a guy who plays 4 different positions and starts nearly every game is worth less than playing one position. As long as he plays everyday. I think he would. I think they are very set on Herrera at least getting the best chance to play everyday.

The reason Zobrist is attractive is because he can play everyday, everywhere/ They aren't trying to block Herrera from getting a chance to win the everyday role. That doesn't mean he plays 162 as a rookie. My point was that the Mets have enough of a need around the field that the major difference between Zobrist and Murphy is that Zobrist plays everywhere and switch hits. Which is why it makes a ton of sense to replace Murphy with him. If you are right, they they will split Flores and Herrera at SS. They simply are not blocking Herrera from at least having a chance at everyday player.

And its not about "benching" COnforto and Grandy - its about resting a guy in his first full year and rotating Grandy, COnforto, Lagares, Cuddyer, Zobrist, maybe one other guy?

If Murphy is worth 12-15 to  
SethFromAstoria : 11/24/2015 5:42 pm : link
play second averagely and DH if he goes to AL, then ZObrist is worth more than that for sure to do lots of other things.
RE: If Murphy is worth 12-15 to  
Deej : 11/24/2015 5:56 pm : link
In comment 12642985 SethFromAstoria said:
Quote:
play second averagely and DH if he goes to AL, then ZObrist is worth more than that for sure to do lots of other things.


Agree Zobrist will get materially more if both get 4 year deals. But of course Zobrist's deal is a lot more impacted by age. If Zobrist was the same player but was 30 years old, he'd probably be looking at $125-150 million, no? So Murphy and Zobrist prices are a bit apples and oranges.

Also, saying Murphy plays second "averagely" is the nicest thing anyone has ever said about his D.
RE: RE: If Murphy is worth 12-15 to  
SethFromAstoria : 11/24/2015 6:18 pm : link
In comment 12642995 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12642985 SethFromAstoria said:


Quote:


play second averagely and DH if he goes to AL, then ZObrist is worth more than that for sure to do lots of other things.



Agree Zobrist will get materially more if both get 4 year deals. But of course Zobrist's deal is a lot more impacted by age. If Zobrist was the same player but was 30 years old, he'd probably be looking at $125-150 million, no? So Murphy and Zobrist prices are a bit apples and oranges.

Also, saying Murphy plays second "averagely" is the nicest thing anyone has ever said about his D.


Sure but as we saw unfortunately, Zobrist is not exactly old looking. In fact we can probably get his last couple of good years and then replace him. So the timing is good in a way. Not that I know whether we get him or not. I hope so. I think he would excellent for a team ready to go back and try again. And yeah the prices are different but if you combine all the factors, Zobrist is the better player even if he's older.

And yeah I was nice about Murph's d because i love the dude and his work as a Met and mainly in these playoffs. Don't want to down on the guy. Plus people get very very testy when it comes to Murph and his D.
I think the Mets first priority should be a lights our 8th in reliever  
Ira : 11/24/2015 6:24 pm : link
They should also sign Reed. With Familia, those two, Robles and the others in the pen, they'll have a top pen to match the starting lineup.

With Conforto, Grandy and Lagares, I like our outfield. Lagares was playing hurt all year. With the off-season, he should heal and be a better hitter as well as the great center fielder he was in 2014.

I think the infielders we need are all in the system. Herrera can hit and has a better range than Murphy. Cecchini will come up mid-season and challenge Flores for playing time.
Wonder if Matt Reynolds gets a real shot  
SethFromAstoria : 11/24/2015 6:27 pm : link
Hope so.
thought I put the link in the story from where I saw it  
Jints in Carolina : 11/24/2015 9:25 pm : link
Sorry for the omission.

RE: RE: I'm not sure I'd do that ...  
BronxBob : 11/25/2015 2:28 pm : link
In comment 12642792 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12642747 BronxBob said:


Quote:


... if I were the Royals. But ... I don't know whether that overvalues Plawecki -- objectively and because the Royals have a durable catcher -- or undervalues McGee.



Rays


Thanks? I knew I should have checked on that. Confused him with Wade Davis. Pretty sure both were drafted as starters by TB, but before they traded most of them, or lost them to free agency, over the past few years, their batch of starters was pretty tough to crack. Never mind! ( . . . pending further research I haven't got time for right now)
Let's go Red Sox I guess?  
Eric on Li : 11/25/2015 3:12 pm : link
MLB Trade Rumors ‏@mlbtraderumors
#Cubs, #stlcards, #Dodgers, #RedSox and #SFGiants reportedly showing most interest in David Price. Read more: http://bit.ly/1PPcjeb
Anthony Recker  
sphinx : 11/27/2015 5:13 pm : link
Adam Rubin
Anthony Recker signs minor league deal with Indians

RE: I think the Mets first priority should be a lights our 8th in reliever  
ZGiants98 : 11/27/2015 11:38 pm : link
In comment 12643034 Ira said:
Quote:
They should also sign Reed. With Familia, those two, Robles and the others in the pen, they'll have a top pen to match the starting lineup.

With Conforto, Grandy and Lagares, I like our outfield. Lagares was playing hurt all year. With the off-season, he should heal and be a better hitter as well as the great center fielder he was in 2014.

I think the infielders we need are all in the system. Herrera can hit and has a better range than Murphy. Cecchini will come up mid-season and challenge Flores for playing time.


I agree with this. We likely have some room to spend, so why not spend some on a reliever thats likely a short term solution? Is Soria/Sipp really "lights out" though. Good pitchers. Ill take one for sure.

People laugh but Kirk's career OPS of .730 against righties would actually make a solid platoon partner with Lagares until hopefully Nimmo starts pushing the envelope. .730 OPS puts him up with players like Brett Gardner. Been though this but there is absolutely no chance Herrera isn't a league average player next year which is pretty much what Murphy has been, slightly more. If Herrera just continues doing what he's already shown in 160 abats he gets there easily and obviously we all expect much more.

That said, Sandy will absolutely bring people in. I fully expect Span, ect.
Puig, you say?  
sphinx : 11/28/2015 10:16 am : link
Yasiel Puig was involved in a massive brawl at a Miami bar after the Dodgers star got physical with his sister and struck several staffers ... TMZ Sports has learned.

We spoke with employees at Blue Martini in Miami, who tell us Puig was drinking with his sister Wednesday night when they got into a heated argument ... and things escalated when he pushed her.

Bar staffers immediately rushed over to break it up, but Puig turned on them ... getting physical with several staffers.

The crew was eventually able to get Puig outside where they say he brutally sucker punched the manager, setting off a brawl.

continued on TMZ - ( New Window )
Would still like a shot at Puig but not  
Giants2012 : 11/28/2015 11:05 am : link
at the expense of sending an ACE pitcher to the Dodgers who the Mets compete against.
RE: Let's go Red Sox I guess?  
Giants2012 : 11/28/2015 11:07 am : link
In comment 12644259 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
MLB Trade Rumors ‏@mlbtraderumors
#Cubs, #stlcards, #Dodgers, #RedSox and #SFGiants reportedly showing most interest in David Price. Read more: http://bit.ly/1PPcjeb


I see the Sox landing him. It would be a disaster if they missed out on him IMO. They would likely be forced to overpay in the trade market for a pitcher if they miss on Price.

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