Coaching/GM/Management:
-Mara/Tisch: Need to initiate a full scale investigation into the injury problem. Yes it is a problem and it's the primary problem.
--Research strength and conditioning programs. Find out what works and what doesn't. Adapt accordingly and immediately.
-Reese: I'm not happy with him but it's true that drafting players is a collective effort. Giants not likely to fire him. I doubt he's replaced.
--Offensive drafting has been fairly good IMHO. The OL has 3 recent good picks (Flower, Pugh, Richburg). This makes sense when you consider Coughlin is an offensive mind and part of the team that picks the players. That said about offense, their defensive picks are not good. When did they get so bad at scouting defensive talent? Close this loop. Find scouts that can assess defensive talent better ASAP.
-Coughlin: Stay the course with Coughlin one more year. Nobody needs to know it's his final year. This is not fear of the unknown. If anything, it's fear of the known. Better yet I'm playing the odds. It's similar to QBs. It's very rare to go from one great QB/Coach to another. Usually when that is successful it's from moving on to another QB/Coach that's already in house. I don't either McAdoo or Spags is ready. Yes I think Coughlin is starting to show his age but a reduced Coughlin still looksbetter to me than anything else available out there right now.
--Reduce some of Coughlin's responsibilities. He's a tremendous leader. A motivator. A mentor. His players love him. The play hard for him. Coughlin needs to let his coordinators handle their jobs and mentor them, not direct them. Retire after the 2016 season and hopefully a successor will be ready or a better option comes up.
Hopefully he goes out at least making the playoffs. I believe it's very possible with the current state of the division.
--I will add I doubt they keep him. I think Coughlin will take the fall for a terrible injury filled roster.
Cap:
-Giants expected to be approximately $50 million over next year after cutting Beason, cap increase, etc.
-According to Overthecap.com:
--Currently show $37,382,100 for 2016
--There is $11,433,300 they can carry over from this year
--They can save $5,100,000 by cutting Beason
--They can save $486,600 by cutting Williams (Not a west coast offense RB. Give him a chance to catch on elsewhere)
-This brings the total next year to $53,915,400
--WAIT! We should go ahead and subtract the amount for draft picks under an estimate now; Let's say $7 Million
***New total is approximately; $46,915,400***
-Optional Cuts that I don't think will happen but could. Some could be re-structured. I'll press on as is for now.
--They can save $1,200,000 by cutting Herzlich. Is his ST contribution and backup LB option enough to justify that money?
--They can save $1,475,000 by cutting J.T. Thomas but $2,525,000 in dead money. A lot of dead money but he hardly played due to injury.
--They can save $1,833,332 by cutting Casillas but $1,333,334 in dead money. A lot of dead money but he hardly played due to injury.
--They can save $4,175,000 by cutting Beatty but $5,000,000 in dead money is too much. Why hurt the OL? His injuries do not seem chronic.
--They can save $2,991,666 by cutting Schwartz but $1,916,667 in dead money. Re-assess after June 1st. See what Hart has first.
--They can save $6,100,000 by cutting Cruz but $3,800,000 in dead money. I think they re-assess him and make a decision after June 1st.
---------FA Signing Options-----------
RB: I'd go Lamar Miller or James Starks
1. Lamar Miller, Dolphins: 5 years, $25 -$27 million. Can do it all very well. Can be a bell cow. Clean injury history. Miami in cap hell.
2. James Starks, Packers: 2 years, $2-2.5 million. Same player as Jennings. Together with jennings maybe one can survive the season.
3. Matt Forte, Bears: 3 years, $11.5-$13.5 million. Older player which is against what they've been doing recently.
4. Doug Martin, Buccs: 3 years, $15-16 million. He has an injury history. Major red flag!
*Bring back both Darkwa for three year veteran minimum salary due to ERFA rules.
*Remember we cut Williams as he's not a west coast back. Give him a chance to excel somewhere else.
*** New Estimate: $41,915,400 if they sign Lamar Miller ***
TE: Hopefull for Dwayne Allen plus Tye & Donnel
1. Dwayne Allen, Colts: 2 years, $2-2.5 million. I don't think the Colts keep him & Freeney. The Giants offer more money than Colts and the #1 TE spot.
2. Ben Watson, Saints: 1 year, $1.6 to $2 million. Had a good season filling in for Graham. Not sure what Saints are doing. Not sure about his blocking.
3. Coby Fleener, Colts: 4 years, $19-$23 million. Better receiver than Allen. An ok blocker. Doubt Lions let him go.
*Bring back both Tye & Donnell for three year veteran minimum salary due to ERFA rules
*** New Estimate: $39,915,400 if they sign Dwayne Allen ***
WR: Rishard Matthewes most likely candidate.
-Alshon Jeffrey, Bears: This is a dream IMHO. Bears won't let him go and he would price closer to a #1.
1. Rishard Matthews, Dolphins: 4 years, $17-$18 million. Phins in cap hell next year. Most likely to be available and good skillset.
2. Jermaine Kearse, Seahawks: 3 years, $9-$10.5 million. Clean injury history. Tough guy. Likely to be retained by Seattle.
3. Travis Benjamin, Browns: 3 years, $15 -$18 million. More of a slot receiver but do we count on Cruz? Likely to be retained
4. Marvin Jones, Bengals: 4 years, $16-$17.5 million. A possible longer term solution if Bengals let him go.
5. Mohamed Sanu, Bengals: 3 years, $9-$10.5 million. I'm not high on him but some here are so here you go.
6. Reuben Randle, Giants: 1 year, $2.5 - $3 million. Injury history. Lazy routes. He'll be offered something better elsewhere. Goodbye.
*Hakeem Nicks, Giants: $745,000, 1 more year to see what he can do after he knows the system.
*Victor Cruz, Giants: Evaluate up to June. Offer a restructure if he's diminished at all. Post June 1st cut is the bargaining chip.
*** New Estimate: $35,415,400 if they sign Rishard Matthews ***
OL: I'm not as down as most on the OL. I think we are good with Beatty coming back and a blocking TE to help.
-Let it ride. That's right. Beatty/Flowers (LT) - Pugh (LG) - Richburg (C) - Schwartz/Hart (RG) - Flowers/Beatty (RT)
--Newhouse reserve RT. He's a decent backup IMHO. I hope nobody is expecting more from a backup.
--Beatty takes back his LT spot unless he's good at RT. They will try to reduce Beatty's salary but he won't do it.
--May have to find a backup guard if they release Schwartz but should get equal value regardless.
*** Existing Estimate: $35,415,400 / No Change ***
DE: A few potential targets. Need to spend a high draft pick here. (Low 15 million, high 19 million for next year)
-Try to resign Jason Pierre-Paul, Giants: 1 year, $8-9 million. Someone may offer more.
-Try to resign Robert Ayers, Giants: 2 years, $1.5-$2 million.
-Von Miller, Broncos: 5 years, $80-$85 million. I seriously doubt Broncos let him walk. If they do, will Giants break the bank for him?
-Muhammad Wilkerson, Jets: 5 years, $73-$79 million. I seriously doubt Jets let him walk. If they do, will Giants break the bank for him?
1. Olivier Vernon, Dolphins: 4 years, $20-$24 million. Had a down year but great potential. Miami in cap hell helps the cause.
2. Mike Daniels, Packers: 4 years, $25-$29 million. Doubt he leaves the Packers though.
3. Malik Jackson, Broncos: 5 years, $36-$40 million. Unfortunately a 3-4 DE but I think he could switch. Broncos will be concerned with Von Miller.
4. High draft pick (1st or 2nd round) as I think the cupboard is somewhat bare in Free Agency.
*** New Estimate: $20,415,400 after signing JPP (Cheaper if Daniels or Jackson), Ayers, and Olivier Vernon ***
DT: None really stand out to me. Need to spend a high draft pick here. (I don't see a new signing here other than draft pick)
-I like Hankins and I think Bromley takes a step forward next year. Resign Cullen Jenkins.
*-See Malik Jackson from the DE category. He can make the switch to either DE or Tackle.
1. High draft pick (1st or 2nd round).
-Sign a solid player AFTER the draft. A decent one should still be available.
*** New Estimate: $18,915,400 after re-signing Jenkins ***
MLB: Missing a good QB for the defense. I think we are stuck with Brinkley, Herzlich, and Unga
-Giants are screwed!!!
-Open to suggestions
-Draft
*** New Estimate: $17,915,400 after re-signing Brinkley ***
OLB: Slim pickings. Might have to stay with J.T. Thomas and Casillas (neither can stay healthy)
-Thomas Davis, Panthers: Likely to be re-signed by Panthers. 32 years old. Still playing well though.
-Bruce Irvin, Seahawks: Likely to be re-signed by Seahawks. Price would be high.
-Sean Weatherspoon, Cardinals: Just another injury risk.
1. Draft or some kind of trade.
*** Existing Estimate: $17,915,400 / No Change ***
CB: It's still a pass happy league. 1 great CB is not good enough. I would take Prince and Patrick Robinson.
1. Janoris Jenkins, Rams: 4 years, $30-$34 million. Could be a dominant #2 CB and an above average #1 CB.
2. Casey Hayward, Packers: 4 years, $27-$31 million. Great slot corner. Can play outside. Has an injury history though.
3. Jerraud Powers, Cardinals: 3 years, $12.5-$15.5 million. Solid player. Good cheaper option to the others.
4. Prince Amukamara, Giants: 4 years, $28-$32 million. The injuries scare me but they aren't lingering type injuries. Hamstrings haven't been an issue for awhile.
5. Patrick Robinson, Chargers: 2 years, $5-$7 million. More of a depth signing. Can play inside our outside. Just a solid player.
*** New Estimate: $7,915,400 after re-signing Prince & signing Robinson ***
FS: Need at least a solid free safety.
-Tashaun Gipson, Browns: 4 years, $34 - 38 million. Best long term option.
-Eric Berry, Chiefs: 2 years, $16 - 18 million. The cancer scare probably drops his value a little.
-Eric Weddle, Chargers: 2 years, $16 - 18 million. A lot of scratch for a 30 year old but he's very good.
-Walter Thurmond, Eagles: 2 years, $8-$9 million. I liked his move to safety and I liked him at CB.
*** New Estimate: $3,915,400 after signing Thurmond ***
------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what am I left with? Not enough. We still need to re-sign; Josh Brown, Zak DeOssie, & JAGs as depth. Plus ERFAs Brad Wing & Orleans Darkwa to vet minimums. Not enough left to fill the roster and some left over for emergencies. However, it's not like the Giants are going to get all of positions I mentioned filled. I bet they go into next year with at least 2 holes from the above list beyond just at LB. They will need an impressive FA run plus a great draft to get back on top. I doubt they can do it in 1 year but they can certainly be more competitive and even make the playoffs.
Feel free to show all my mistakes. I look forward to it. This was something for me to do since I had free time off of work for once. I look forward to everyone's suggestions, complaints, kudos, wet willies, recommendations, insults, etc. I hope someone can recommend what to do with the MLB and OLB positions. I'm at a loss there really.
I like Lamar Miller, and I imagine the FO does as well, as he's a big play waiting to happen and has relatively little tread on the tires. But it's already and awfully crowded backfield and they have too many other needs to spend 5M on Lamar.
Quote:
in 3 years with the guaranteed money gone after 2?
I don't see him as the QB in 5 years at 40 years old.
I think it's a 4 year deal...Eli will have finished 5 years at age 39
Check out the link though. By the end of 2018 the guaranteed cash is gone and he's a $17 million dollar cap savings.
With all these holes, maybe a new coach, OC, etc, will this team win the Lombardi next year? Will that #2 pick be the difference? Realistically, maybe the Giants could win the Bowl in two years. Win or lose by then and Eli is late 30's . Assuming the Giants are winning, nobody is falling to them later in the 1st Round.
Look around the league. Ask yourself with 3 years who will be looking for a QB. Brady will be much older, Fitzpatrick is likely done, Ben, Rivers, Brees, Smith (KC), Cutler, Romo, Palmer, etc. Will Philly have found a QB? Will Cousins still be ok in Wash? Trust Buffalo? Will the Rams have found a QB?
It might be almost impossible to find a QB. 3 years isn't a long time and maybe being proactive before everybody is looking isn't such a bad idea IMO. Not sure if "we gotta win now" is being sacraficed by going with a Hackenberg with a #2 pick when you have $50 million in cap space and a 34/35 yr old QB knowing approx 2/3rds of the league will be looking for a QB soon and few are coming out of college worth looking at.
Link - ( New Window )
Ok, you've most likely seen him more than I have..I know he's quick as hell and can stop on a dime, so we've been discussing his possible role in the slot if VC is no longer the man
Quote:
In comment 12727313 Giants2012 said:
Quote:
in 3 years with the guaranteed money gone after 2?
I don't see him as the QB in 5 years at 40 years old.
I think it's a 4 year deal...Eli will have finished 5 years at age 39
Check out the link though. By the end of 2018 the guaranteed cash is gone and he's a $17 million dollar cap savings.
With all these holes, maybe a new coach, OC, etc, will this team win the Lombardi next year? Will that #2 pick be the difference? Realistically, maybe the Giants could win the Bowl in two years. Win or lose by then and Eli is late 30's . Assuming the Giants are winning, nobody is falling to them later in the 1st Round.
Look around the league. Ask yourself with 3 years who will be looking for a QB. Brady will be much older, Fitzpatrick is likely done, Ben, Rivers, Brees, Smith (KC), Cutler, Romo, Palmer, etc. Will Philly have found a QB? Will Cousins still be ok in Wash? Trust Buffalo? Will the Rams have found a QB?
It might be almost impossible to find a QB. 3 years isn't a long time and maybe being proactive before everybody is looking isn't such a bad idea IMO. Not sure if "we gotta win now" is being sacraficed by going with a Hackenberg with a #2 pick when you have $50 million in cap space and a 34/35 yr old QB knowing approx 2/3rds of the league will be looking for a QB soon and few are coming out of college worth looking at. Link - ( New Window )
Let's say this is proven correct..I still strongly doubt the Giants expend a 2 in the hopes he'd be a franchise guy in 3+ years, imo..
We really need to make more impacts in areas of need in Rds 2 and 3, imv
Quote:
Plays mostly on the outside. He's what we hoped Randle could be.
Ok, you've most likely seen him more than I have..I know he's quick as hell and can stop on a dime, so we've been discussing his possible role in the slot if VC is no longer the man
I should say cut on a dime
Quote:
In comment 12727354 JohnVB said:
Quote:
Plays mostly on the outside. He's what we hoped Randle could be.
Ok, you've most likely seen him more than I have..I know he's quick as hell and can stop on a dime, so we've been discussing his possible role in the slot if VC is no longer the man
I should say cut on a dime
He can, and he could play the slot but I'd like to be hopeful re Cruz. Cruz, when healthy, is a top 5 slot guy in the league. Cruz would be lethal with the other two on the field.
Quote:
In comment 12727369 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 12727354 JohnVB said:
Quote:
Plays mostly on the outside. He's what we hoped Randle could be.
Ok, you've most likely seen him more than I have..I know he's quick as hell and can stop on a dime, so we've been discussing his possible role in the slot if VC is no longer the man
I should say cut on a dime
He can, and he could play the slot but I'd like to be hopeful re Cruz. Cruz, when healthy, is a top 5 slot guy in the league. Cruz would be lethal with the other two on the field.
Giants move their WRs around a lot so this is something to keep in mind. Cruz moved around, OBJ moves around too. If Benjamin can move around too it would be a nightmare to defend. It would be tough to double OBJ when he's playing in the slot with Benjamin go over the top.
Let's say this is proven correct..I still strongly doubt the Giants expend a 2 in the hopes he'd be a franchise guy in 3+ years, imo..
We really need to make more impacts in areas of need in Rds 2 and 3, imv
Likely true, I just firmly believe within a few short years, those teams not preparing for the future now are going to be searching for their QB for many years considering the demand across approx 2/3rds of the league could be high with the supply very small.
Also a big believer in keeping Beatty, moving him back in at LT, and flipping Flowers to the right side. Too many people here overlook how bad Flowers looked pass blocking speedy NFL DEs. He needs a year or two on the right side, IMO.
If the Giants cut Beatty loose, I like Glen too.
So let's start with a DE in Rd 1 (Ogbah, Okla St), a DT in Rd 2 (A Johnson, Penn State) and a MLB in Rd 3 (Martinez, Stanford). After that, offensive depth at WR, TE and RB. With a few strategic FA signings (OL, S, LB), they could be on their way back. But they can't have any misses this time. I hope Reese/Ross get that and are held accountable.
Optimus-NY : 4:15 am : link : reply
You subtract the money that is displaced from picks who fall in the Top 51, which are usually only the first and second round picks, and occasionally the third round pick, which leaves you between 2 and 3 mill to subtract from that amount instead. Keep in mind that the Top 51 Rule is in effect in the off-season with respect to the cap.
You are totally correct Sir. I used the linked article to get a rough estimate of my numbers and didn't read it thoroughly enough. Might have been tired when I read it. I have a 2nd draft almost finished that I will start a new thread with. I'll update it to correct this, Thank you. I know you are saying I can't guess the amount and you're right but I'm not trying to be exact. My new estimate will be a conservative $4 Million (which might still be high) instead of $7 Million based on a guesstimate.
http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2015/01/heres_how_much_the_giants_have_to_spend_on_draft_p.html
After previously reading through my thread at the responses I received I had concluded the same. So you are correct again Sir. I had already updated my new draft outlook to include Cordy Glenn specifically with Mitchell Schwartz as my 2nd choice. My 2nd draft fits in the budget fairly well. Most of it won't happen I know but I did it mostly to show everyone the different possibilities. People should be able to come up with their own cuts, adds, totals, etc.
I personally disagree with your choice to draft an OL in the 2nd round though. Defense is the biggest problem and I'm hoping for a draft dominated by defensive picks. I'd prefer DE, DT, and LB in the first 3 or 4 rounds.
I'm no CAP expert but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Seriously, I used mostly articles from overthecap.com to come up with most of the estimates.