BBI Draft Chat with Colin of Great Blue North Draft Report

I think the Giants desperately need another WR with speed but we also need one who can help immediately.

Listenbee is a true burner on the field but production isn't there. What are your thoughts on him and where do you see him going in this draft?

Is he a possibility in round 3 for NYG?

How do Treadwell and Coleman stack up to previous years top wideout prospects?

Chris: A'Shawn is an intriguing guy, but he's more of a clog-up-the-middle NT type and I suspect the Giants will be looking for more a quicker one-gap type DT such as Andrew Billings who has been described as a poor man's Aaron Donald. The other DT I would keep an eye is Penn State junior Auston Johnson who is 325 but still very quick; he'd be on my short list of guys you'd expect to start rising fast. I also doubt that the Giants draft philosophy is going to change much; in fact McAdoo/Spags are much closer in style and temperment to the DE, WR CB paradigm than coughlin ever was.

Emil: The problem for the Giants at DE is that its just not that great a year at the position, although at this time Lawson, Ogbah and maybe even Jon Allen of Alabama will be close to top 15 targets. Meanwhile, the Giants might like to add soem speed at LB and FS but they aren't really strong either. Indeed, LB is almost a wasteland while the best safeties are more SS types. So I would think the odds are you address some of those issues in free agency.

Colin. Thanks for the time. It's much appreciated.

The Giants are going to let go some players at DT, including Jenkins and Kuhn. I'm sure Montori Hughes and Louis Nix will be invited to camp, but we need more at that position, especially with Hankins coming back from a torn pec.

Nkemdiche is going to fall. Jarran Reed also had a DUI. Any chance either is available in round #2, and if so, should the Giants consider them? We seem to be moving away from such players.

Also, what do you think about Vincent Valentine, the DT from Nebraska, as a day three pick in the middle rounds? He seems like a good run stuffer. Thanks.

KWALL/Emil: This is not a great year for WR at the top of the board. Treadwell is an Anquan Boldin type target with good hands and acceleration but he doesn't have track speed, plus there's the issue of the rather gruesome injury he suffered last year although he seemed fine this fall. Coleman on the other hand is real a burner who is another candidate to move up he runs well this winter, although there are concerns about his size and physicality. Listenbee is another guy who can really run but appears to be more of a late rounder. I'd be surprised if the Giants took a WR at #10 unless they were blown away by Treadwell or Colemen but could be looking for a comolimentary guy in the second or third. We talked about Sterling Shephard as a #3 target about; Kenny Lawlor of Cal and Rashard Higgins of Colorado State might alos work in that area. Also Roger Lewis of Bowling Green could be an intriguing guy in that area although I'm not sure yet how he'll time.

Hey Colin - as you mentioned above it's becoming rare to find 3 down LB's like Keuchly & Willis early in the draft. You mentioned Jack, but Darron Lee looks to me like Lavonte David clone, possibly with more upsde. Is he a possibility as high as 10? Is Ragland?

Ballhawking FS are always hard to find but becoming more and more important with all the deep passing in the NFL right now. Jaylen Ramsey and Eddie Jackson seem like the best 2 candidates. Do you see either comparing favorably to recent prospects like Clinton Dix?

Either of those Arkansas behemoths mobile enough to help out? 4th or 5th rd. One thing the Giants surely need is some depth on the OL.

Kevin Dodd was impressive Monday night. Do you think he will enter the draft and if so will he represent a good convergence of value and need for the Giants at the 10 slot.

Good question Acid ... I don't think the Giants touch Nkemdiche with a 10-foot pole anywhere in the draft. The buzz around the league is that the guy really is 'weird' Same with Reed is the second. If he's fallen that draft there are soem real issues there and there will be good players available who aren't as risky. Speaking of DT one guy who could be interesting at #10 is Buckner. I don't see the Giants looking at him as a DE at #10, but IF they were looking for a Chris Canty 3T then Buckner might be an option. DT is also relatively deep this year and there will be some decent guys there with at least 2-down potential thru the second day and maybe even into the third

Any thoughts on Vernon Butler (DT, LA Tech) as a mid/later round selection? Looked impressive in the New Orleans Bowl.

This is an intriguing prospect with size/AA and game film vs top competition. Why isn't there more talk about Lumpkin as a high draft pick?

Last year, some around Rutgers felt he was a better NFL prospect than Anthony Davis.

Beatty could be out the door. We need OT help. What are your thought on Lumpkin as a prospect and where he fits in this draft?

The 'other' Eric: I don't see either Lee or Ragland as being options at #10; Ragland is a terrific 2-down type run-stuffer, but his speed (somewhere in the 4.75 range) and agility are only borderline. What I see with him is a 3-4 inside guy who is likely to drop once we get into the testing phase of the process. Lee on the other is more a 3-4 OLB, although he probably has enough athleticism to play in 4-3 he doesn't have enough to warrant a top 10 pick. I am sure the Giants would love to get Jalen Ramsey but he looks to be a top 4-5 guy as a CB. And Eddie Jackson just said he is staying in school. Reb ... Dodd has entered the draft but he's not real fast or athletic with a projected 40 time in the mid-4.8 range; that's not bad for someone with his strength and technique but not close to what would make him worth the tenth pick. Second round now that's another story where he could be in the mix with guys like Carl Nassib and Shilique Calhoun.

is there any realistic chance that Stanley actually falls to 10? And if so, wouldn't the Giants stand by their BPA and sprint to the podium? Who else do you see at the OL position in the top 20?

In comment 12766772 Reb8thVA said:

Quote:

Kevin Dodd was impressive Monday night. Do you think he will enter the draft and if so will he represent a good convergence of value and need for the Giants at the 10 slot.

He's entered the draft.

in the mold of Miller and Mack?

NJM, KWALL et al: There is some decent depth along the OL this year including the guys you mention. The Arkansas OGs can move the pile and Kirkland is especially interesting b/c he's played a lot of OT. Lumpkin isn't getting much love from pro scouts despite a pretty good resume and measurables (6-5, 310, 5.30); he's just a little stiff and not a natural athlete but certainly worth a late round developmental puck. Time will tell, but while I could see the Giants taking Stanley at #10 because he'd be just too good pass I'm not sure the giants go into the draft looking for OL depth; they can get that in free agency; meanwhile there depth needs at just about every other position are even more pressing and mid round guys at just about every other position can contribute in some ways but OL tend to be 2-3 years away.

Since Jaylon Smith has declared. Coming off the surgery he had, do you see him falling out of the first round? I know a lot will depend on what he can/can't do at the combine. Just curious if he could fall to day 2 and the Giants make a Landon Collins type trade to get him at the top of the second.

Where do you think Jaylon Smith ND will fall two, and would you take a chance on him at 10 because he will not be there in the second round. What about Eli Apple CB, were will he go.

There has been a lot of debate regarding the quality / effectiveness of the Giants drafts, particularly rounds 3 -7 from 2009 - 2013. Reese's exchange with Raanan during the Coughlin departure press conference to "show data" regarding the Giants poor drafts generated several attempts to "quantify / objectify" the Giants drafts.

Without commenting specifically on the Giants drafts (which I assume you may want to avoid), are there methods you use or support that you feel accurately assess a given teams performance in a draft (recognizing a good evaluation needs to wait 2-3 years)?

do you think of Bronson Kaufusi? He's another guy along with Valentine I'd like to target in the middle rounds.

I'm also curious what happens with Ryan Nassib. He's a FA after this year, so this would be the last year to trade him. I still think drafting him was the right decision. My guess is that they'll also just keep him, even though he'll leave next year. I am curious what they could get for him. He's never played meaningful snaps in a regular season game, but a lot of teams had a low first or high second round grade on him coming out of the draft. He's also healthy, and has at least been in the league for three years. It's not a great year for QBs IMO. Goff is the best, but he needs to add weight. Lynch is a bit of a project. Then there's Cook and the kids from North Dakota State and N.C. State. I wonder if somebody would offer a three for Nassib, and if the Giants would take it. My guess is that the Giants would pass.

Good call pganut: In fact, we include Vern Butler of Louisiana Tech on our short list of potential mid-round DT targets; strong kid at 310 with some movement skills but still more a 2-down type. Anthony Zettel whose not big at barely 285 also could be in the mix in that area; he's really quick and has a little of that poor man's Aaron Donald about him. One other guy I'd mention at DE in the later rounds is Illinois 5T DE Jihad Ward (if you can get past the name. He's 6-5, 295 with some upfield quickness and interior pass-rush potential.

Ryan: Stanley is clearly a top 10 prospect but could slip because like the Giants most of the teams picking 5-10 have bigger needs on defense. If he were there he'd be tough to pass on as he's probably an even better LT prospect than Flowers. There are some other OT candidates in the opening round like OSU's Taylor Decker and Jack Conklin of Michigan State, but as I said I don't see the Giants going into the draft necessarily targetting the OL. And Jeff, Floyd could conceivably make the shift to 4-3 OLB but he's no where near as fast or athletic as Miller or Msck (who by the way plays almost exclusively at DE) and I am not dsure why one would try that.

This may piss some people off here, but I'm interested to hear your thoughts on:

A) With Ryan Nassib's contract coming up after this season, I wonder if the Giants last real chance to move him would be on draft day. Could his value go up if a team missed on a QB they were looking for - despite Nassib's lack of reg. season game experience?
B) Are there any QBs with NFL-starter potential that could be on worth a look in the 6th and 7th rounds. A guy I kind of like is BYU's Taysom Hill.

Thanks for doing this!


What do you think of Sheldon Rankins? Who are some of your favorite pass-rushing DTs this draft season?

Also, what do you think of Tajae Sharpe?

Part of me wonders how the Giants view Buckner of Oregon. He seems like an athletic freak and complete Defensive Lineman.

If the Giants alter (not change but alter) their defensive philosophy as you suggest. (I assume more of a Ravens style, attacking front?) Would you see Buckner fitting in that scheme and being a disruptive player?

Figgy et al: Great question about Smith; too early to tell where he falls to, but the early reports are that his surgery went well; word around the NFL is that he won't fall out of the top ten; would the Giants be interested if he did; probably but again that would only happen if the med reports weren't good and do you want to gamble a #2 on a med risk. The more interesting question would be would the Giants take a flyer at #10 if the med tests were okay just before the draft; probably not but an interesting question.

I do have some thots on that, but they are a tad long so I will answer at the end.

Now that Coughlin and his 20th century ways is gone. How much of an effect do you think he had on the paltry returns they had over the past 5 years? Or was it not a factor?

Will they finally draft an LB in the first 2 rounds to address the lack of athleticism they posses in the middle of the field that teams have consistently attacked as long as I can remember? To me that is the next biggest priority after addressing pass rush.

He will surprise with his AA too. Former BB player can move his feet. I don't get the lack of publicity.

I think he's the best RU pro prospect including WR Carroo. We'll see but I think people are underestimating him at this point. I expect a big move up as we move along the draft process.

Fans tend to forget UFA goes down before they draft, any thoughts on targets?

What are the top three positions talent wise in this draft? DT? CB?

What positions would you target in the first three rounds if you where the Giants?

Thanks

Although not a great year for WRs, where do you see Leonte Caroo from Rutgers going. He had some monster games against some good comp this year and had a nice year last year too. He could be a very nice compliment to our passing game. Your thoughts? Thanks

Anakim: Rankins is another guy we'd have one our short list mid-round DT depth guys along with Vern Butler; the top pass-rushing DTs - and that's what you are really looking for are Baylor's Billings and maybe Austin Johnson of Penn State; then there's Buckner who would be an interesting option as 3T DT although he's nominally a DE or 5T.

Motown: Rulke #3 of the draft is you can't take a guy who's not there and I am not really sure there is that kind of LB available in this year's draft. (Of course, if you don't have any athletic pass coverage LBs there is no rule you actually use them EVERY DOWN and maybe you put extra DBs out there or some such).

Don't expect the Giants draft philosophy to change much with TC gone. As noted above McAdoo et al seem to be closer in style and philosophy to what the FO is looking for TC. Its hard to make sense of what actually was going but there did seem to be a disconnect between the FO and TC when it came to picks. Given that TC was very involved in the process its hard to know what was going on, but there were undercurrents of unhappiness on both sides.

KWALL: I agree I am not sure why Lumkin who as I noted has a pretty good resume isn't getting more love from scouts, but the neat thing about the whole process is that good players usually find their level; and Carroo would be a guy the Giants might look at if they hadn't gotten a WR prior to the 4th. Boatie: As I said the 2016 draft likely won't be considered all that strong but there is some real depth at CB, WR and OT. Not so much right across the board on D where DT might be the best.

What are your thoughts on OSU Bosa? I don't see him as being as good as some making to be. I've seen some games in Michigan St game this year where a bigger Ol had their way with him at times. He's still a good DE but I don't think as much as making him to be..thanks

JonC: While I am a draft guy I really think FA will be far more important for the Giants this year. On the one hand, they have a bunch of areas that they would like to upgrade in one way or another, but don't necessarily need an elite talent. So at positions like WR, RB and TE they could get by very well by adding a solid veteran or two in FA and then maybe adding some depth in the mid-rounds if that they don't get a stud in the draft. In fact, the only area that they really need a true elite player is the pass-rush and they aren't likely to get that in FA (although there are no guarantees they can get that in the draft either).

Micky: Agreed; Bosa isn't JJ Watt yet and in fact may be something of a tweener in that he is neither a super fast edge rusher (4-3) nor a particularly big or strong for a 5T. Still a top 5 guy but not necessarily the second coming!

Thanks guys: As always that was fun such that one wonders where the time has gone. Any more questions post them and I will try and get to them. Will also post a comment or two on Train's ?. In the meantime, since we don't get paid would appreciate it if people would click a few ads if you are ever over at the GBN to help out just a little bit. And no doubt we'll talk more before the draft which for the record is just 105 days away!!

but at some point, I would like to hear your thoughts on what you think the Giants 2016 defense will look like (scheme wise) compared to 2015. You touched on it earlier, but it sounded like you had some additional points.

.

Trainmaster: Interesting that you should ask the question about evaluating the draft because I have been thinking a lot about that of late. There are all kinds of ways in measuring how productive any particular draft was: how many guys made the team; how many games started; how many pro bowlers etc. and none is any more right or accurate that any other. However, I am always curious why people say the draft is 'a lottery, a crapshoot, like flipping coins ...' (which it is) but then turn around and analyze it as if there were scientific/mathematical right and wrong answer. If the draft is like "a lottery, a crapshoot, like fliiping coins ... ' which it is then the results are going to be by definition random and by chance. Fact is put 32 people (roughly the number of NFL GMs) in a room and ask them to flip 15 coins (roughly the number of say 3rd thru 5th round picks in 5-year draft cycle) and by the laws of perms and combs you'll get some people who'll get as many as 12-13 heads and some that get only 3-4 heads. And I suspect that is pretty much how the draft works. Hit enough heads and they'll send you to the HOF; hit too many tails and you're looking for work.

And I suspect that's pretty much what has happened to the Giants drafts of late. They had a great run 2004 thru 2008 that helped win two SBs when they hit on almost every pick it seemed, but then hit a dry run over the next few years (that certainly wasn't helped by the fact that anyone they did hit on seemed to get hurt!)

And I'm no more cutting Reese and company some slack for th drafts in the 2009-2012 period than I would credit them with 'hitting' on Beckham or Richburg or some of the other decent recent picks. Its just the way it is. George Young used to say when it came to the draft that you went out and gathered as much information as you could; made the best pick you could; and then crossed your fingers! because ultimately at the draft its far better to be lucky than good!

Indeed, what's frustrating abut the recent 'bad' drafts by the Giants is that when I, as a draft analyst who knows a little bit about this stuff, thought that picks like Randle and Austin and Moore and Jernigan were all really good picks when they were made. They all were productive college players with good measurables and planty of upside. Just none of them worked out the way we hoped. Its how it works.

And because every prospect has some warts, the temptation is to go back and magnify those warts and start asking ourselves 'WTF were they thinking when they took that guy?"
So 'WTF were the Giants thinking when they took Marvin Austin, a first round talent, who dropped because of questions about his conditioning and work ethic, in the second round in 2011. Probably the same thing Carolina was thinking when they took former Purdue DT Kawann Short, who had been considered to be a top 10-15 prospect at the start of his senior season, but dropped because of concerns about his conditioning and work ethic, with a mid-second round pick two years later. Two remarkably similar guys but Austin's out of the league, while Short had double-digit sacks this fall for the 14-1 Panthers. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose!

do you think it is way too early to start formulating the Giants draft strategy? I think their draft will heavily rely on how/what they do in early FA.

*Do you expect this offseason to reverberate with echoes of 2005? In other words will the team be that aggressive in the free agent market and sign some front line starters for big money?

*Gun to your head which 1st/2nd combo would you sign for...Ogbah/Tre'Davious White or Hargreaves/Shilique Calhoun ?

Thanks for the detailed reply. Clearly the NFL draft is a mix of skill and luck; "sure things" and "gambles".

A question is when to go for the "sure thing" and when to "gamble"? I personally think the Giants have drafted players with "first round grades" that slipped for factors the Giants thought were either "controllable" or "behind them" (e.g. work ethic, past injuries) too often.

For me, the lesson learned is for the Giants to gamble less, especially in rounds 2 to 4, and just go for guys with a strong resume of college production, of at least decent size/speed for their position, no off field issues and no injury histories. Had the Giants done that in rounds 3 - 7 in 2009 through 2012, the Giants would have a much better roster today.

So I guess no real meaningful "draft effectiveness measurable" jumps out at you?

Interesting stuff, useful for a guy who really doesn't follow CFB. Looking forward to the draft!

thanks Colin

When he was GM/Head Coach of the Jaguars, Coughlin tried to trade up for Curtis Enis but had to settle for Fred Taylor.

The draft we need Defense it is deeper in Offensive players. Guess we really need to get our impact defenders in rounds 1 and 2.

wish I had time to ask some questions, but I think you covered all the bases for me.

Colin. We really appreciate it.

trying to "outsmart everyone. " For me, the lesson learned is for the Giants to gamble less, especially in rounds 2 to 4, and just go for guys with a strong resume of college production, of at least decent size/speed for their position, no off field issues and no injury histories. Had the Giants done that in rounds 3 - 7 in 2009 through 2012, the Giants would have a much better roster today. "