BBI Draft Chat with Colin of Great Blue North Draft Report

JonC: While I am a draft guy I really think FA will be far more important for the Giants this year. On the one hand, they have a bunch of areas that they would like to upgrade in one way or another, but don't necessarily need an elite talent. So at positions like WR, RB and TE they could get by very well by adding a solid veteran or two in FA and then maybe adding some depth in the mid-rounds if that they don't get a stud in the draft. In fact, the only area that they really need a true elite player is the pass-rush and they aren't likely to get that in FA (although there are no guarantees they can get that in the draft either).

Micky: Agreed; Bosa isn't JJ Watt yet and in fact may be something of a tweener in that he is neither a super fast edge rusher (4-3) nor a particularly big or strong for a 5T. Still a top 5 guy but not necessarily the second coming!

Thanks guys: As always that was fun such that one wonders where the time has gone. Any more questions post them and I will try and get to them. Will also post a comment or two on Train's ?. In the meantime, since we don't get paid would appreciate it if people would click a few ads if you are ever over at the GBN to help out just a little bit. And no doubt we'll talk more before the draft which for the record is just 105 days away!!

but at some point, I would like to hear your thoughts on what you think the Giants 2016 defense will look like (scheme wise) compared to 2015. You touched on it earlier, but it sounded like you had some additional points.

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Trainmaster: Interesting that you should ask the question about evaluating the draft because I have been thinking a lot about that of late. There are all kinds of ways in measuring how productive any particular draft was: how many guys made the team; how many games started; how many pro bowlers etc. and none is any more right or accurate that any other. However, I am always curious why people say the draft is 'a lottery, a crapshoot, like flipping coins ...' (which it is) but then turn around and analyze it as if there were scientific/mathematical right and wrong answer. If the draft is like "a lottery, a crapshoot, like fliiping coins ... ' which it is then the results are going to be by definition random and by chance. Fact is put 32 people (roughly the number of NFL GMs) in a room and ask them to flip 15 coins (roughly the number of say 3rd thru 5th round picks in 5-year draft cycle) and by the laws of perms and combs you'll get some people who'll get as many as 12-13 heads and some that get only 3-4 heads. And I suspect that is pretty much how the draft works. Hit enough heads and they'll send you to the HOF; hit too many tails and you're looking for work.

And I suspect that's pretty much what has happened to the Giants drafts of late. They had a great run 2004 thru 2008 that helped win two SBs when they hit on almost every pick it seemed, but then hit a dry run over the next few years (that certainly wasn't helped by the fact that anyone they did hit on seemed to get hurt!)

And I'm no more cutting Reese and company some slack for th drafts in the 2009-2012 period than I would credit them with 'hitting' on Beckham or Richburg or some of the other decent recent picks. Its just the way it is. George Young used to say when it came to the draft that you went out and gathered as much information as you could; made the best pick you could; and then crossed your fingers! because ultimately at the draft its far better to be lucky than good!

Indeed, what's frustrating abut the recent 'bad' drafts by the Giants is that when I, as a draft analyst who knows a little bit about this stuff, thought that picks like Randle and Austin and Moore and Jernigan were all really good picks when they were made. They all were productive college players with good measurables and planty of upside. Just none of them worked out the way we hoped. Its how it works.

And because every prospect has some warts, the temptation is to go back and magnify those warts and start asking ourselves 'WTF were they thinking when they took that guy?"
So 'WTF were the Giants thinking when they took Marvin Austin, a first round talent, who dropped because of questions about his conditioning and work ethic, in the second round in 2011. Probably the same thing Carolina was thinking when they took former Purdue DT Kawann Short, who had been considered to be a top 10-15 prospect at the start of his senior season, but dropped because of concerns about his conditioning and work ethic, with a mid-second round pick two years later. Two remarkably similar guys but Austin's out of the league, while Short had double-digit sacks this fall for the 14-1 Panthers. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose!

do you think it is way too early to start formulating the Giants draft strategy? I think their draft will heavily rely on how/what they do in early FA.

*Do you expect this offseason to reverberate with echoes of 2005? In other words will the team be that aggressive in the free agent market and sign some front line starters for big money?

*Gun to your head which 1st/2nd combo would you sign for...Ogbah/Tre'Davious White or Hargreaves/Shilique Calhoun ?

Thanks for the detailed reply. Clearly the NFL draft is a mix of skill and luck; "sure things" and "gambles".

A question is when to go for the "sure thing" and when to "gamble"? I personally think the Giants have drafted players with "first round grades" that slipped for factors the Giants thought were either "controllable" or "behind them" (e.g. work ethic, past injuries) too often.

For me, the lesson learned is for the Giants to gamble less, especially in rounds 2 to 4, and just go for guys with a strong resume of college production, of at least decent size/speed for their position, no off field issues and no injury histories. Had the Giants done that in rounds 3 - 7 in 2009 through 2012, the Giants would have a much better roster today.

So I guess no real meaningful "draft effectiveness measurable" jumps out at you?

Interesting stuff, useful for a guy who really doesn't follow CFB. Looking forward to the draft!

thanks Colin

When he was GM/Head Coach of the Jaguars, Coughlin tried to trade up for Curtis Enis but had to settle for Fred Taylor.

The draft we need Defense it is deeper in Offensive players. Guess we really need to get our impact defenders in rounds 1 and 2.

wish I had time to ask some questions, but I think you covered all the bases for me.

Colin. We really appreciate it.

trying to "outsmart everyone. " For me, the lesson learned is for the Giants to gamble less, especially in rounds 2 to 4, and just go for guys with a strong resume of college production, of at least decent size/speed for their position, no off field issues and no injury histories. Had the Giants done that in rounds 3 - 7 in 2009 through 2012, the Giants would have a much better roster today. "