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Is he a keeper? Josh Brown

Matt in SGS : 1/22/2016 12:40 pm
Following up on the thread earlier in the week in talking about Jasper Brinkley. With change to McAdoo and new assistant coaches, we know there is going to be increased scrutiny of the players on the roster and whether they should be brought back or not. This addition, kicker Josh Brown.

On the surface, Brown, 36 years old, had a very good year. Brown went 30-32 on field goals, good enough to lead the NFL with a 93.8% success rate. He was also 44-45 on extra points, considering that they were moved back to 33 yards was impressive on it's own right. And he was 3-3 on 50+ yard attempts. He would score a career high 134 points.

So what's the problem? Well, the problem is one that creeps up on kickers as they get older, which is kick off distance. In a time when there are more touchbacks than before, Brown was not very good in 2015. The eye test showed it, with several shanks and low line drives. And the numbers backed it up too, Brown only got 36 touchbacks on the season. That ranked him 26th in the NFL. The converse side of things, Brown "allowed" an NFL high 54 returns in 2015, which translated to 1095 yards in returns, the 3rd highest total in the NFL.

By contrast, probably the best kicker in the NFL, Gostkowski on the Pats had an NFL high 69 touchbacks, allowed only 28 returns and 526 yards. Justin Tucker had 63 touchbacks and only 9 returns for 225 yards. Pat McAfee, a punter used for kickoffs, boomed 67 touchbacks and allowed only 8 returns all year, for a miniscule 156 yards.

That type of field position goes hand in hand with a bad defense to equate to losses. So the question do the Giants look to bring back the 37 year old Brown, who earned $1,250,000 in 2015? Do the Giants consider looking into a kickoff specialist and potentially burn a roster spot on that role. Do they look to see if Wing can kick off, similar to McAfee?

Or do the Giants look to start fresh, keeping in mind the past couple of seasons, they actually did a good job with young kickers in camp who have been productive elsewhere (McManus in Denver and Boswell in Pittsburgh)...dare we say, a nod to Quinn?
Explore the options as always but he's probably back...  
Torrag : 1/22/2016 12:43 pm : link
...for one more season. Decent range and reliable. The snapper and holder change last season was a bit of an issue but they adjusted.
I don't think the total yardage given up is fair.  
robbieballs2003 : 1/22/2016 12:46 pm : link
What is the average starting field position based on kickoffs? That is more relevant. Yes, more returns could lead to more kickoff returns for TDs but they could also lead to more fumbles by the return team. We need more statistics to make a valid argument.
I loved his work on Jackass  
Mike in Long Beach : 1/22/2016 12:49 pm : link
.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: I don't think the total yardage given up is fair.  
Matt in SGS : 1/22/2016 12:53 pm : link
In comment 12782334 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
What is the average starting field position based on kickoffs? That is more relevant. Yes, more returns could lead to more kickoff returns for TDs but they could also lead to more fumbles by the return team. We need more statistics to make a valid argument.


Robbie, good point, I"m looking for that stat now. However, I think the goal of the special teams coaches, unless it's a squib or onside kick (or a special pooch play), I'd say that 95% of the time, the goal is a touchback. Brown wasn't good in this category last year, no matter how you slice it. Statistically, he was one of the worst full time kickers in the NFL.
the Giants are always good at finding kickers...  
Mike in St. Louis : 1/22/2016 12:53 pm : link
for other teams...Matt Stover, Olindo Mare, Matt Bryant, to name a few...
RE: RE: I don't think the total yardage given up is fair.  
guitarguybs12 : 1/22/2016 12:54 pm : link
In comment 12782351 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
In comment 12782334 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


What is the average starting field position based on kickoffs? That is more relevant. Yes, more returns could lead to more kickoff returns for TDs but they could also lead to more fumbles by the return team. We need more statistics to make a valid argument.



Robbie, good point, I"m looking for that stat now. However, I think the goal of the special teams coaches, unless it's a squib or onside kick (or a special pooch play), I'd say that 95% of the time, the goal is a touchback. Brown wasn't good in this category last year, no matter how you slice it. Statistically, he was one of the worst full time kickers in the NFL.


Giants we're 6th in the NFL for Avg. Starting Field Position (Defense)
Drive Stats 2015 - ( New Window )
...and 11th following specifically a KickOff  
guitarguybs12 : 1/22/2016 12:54 pm : link
.
Kickers are basically fungible, at least to me  
BeerFridge : 1/22/2016 12:55 pm : link
Brown does a fine job. Other guys would probably do a fine job. There are very few guys that are notably better than the average kicker. Maybe Gostkowski? So, it seems like the Giants are holding on to guys until they want a raise and then getting a new guy and I am totally ok with this.

And as a whole, I prefer reliable scoring to long kickoffs, so Brown fits that well.
Great Post! And definitely debatable.  
Dinger : 1/22/2016 12:55 pm : link
I loved his FG and XP accuracy, but watching the games last weekend it seemed that every kickoff was out of the endzone. Make it a competition in training camp. If you can find someone equally acurate (its tough to judge with a small sample size) but better on kickoffs take him. Along those lines I think they should resign DeOssie or Aiken ASAP so you have that locked down and though at the start of the season I was worried about Wing, I think he did a pretty good job. Resign him as well, unless you have a similar analysis that shows him below league average.
guitarguysbs12  
robbieballs2003 : 1/22/2016 12:58 pm : link
Thanks. I also think we need to know what our kickoff team will look like. If we trust them getting downfield, maintaining their lanes, understanding their responsibilities, and securing the tackle then I am fine with sacrificing touchbacks for an accurate kicker especially a guy that hit 50 yarders.
His yards allowed per return.....  
njm : 1/22/2016 12:58 pm : link
was essentially equal to what the top kickers allowed. I don't see this as a glaring problem. No problem to bring in a young kicker to camp to compete, but I think there a lot of areas that need greater attention.
RE: RE: I don't think the total yardage given up is fair.  
GMenLTS : 1/22/2016 12:59 pm : link
In comment 12782351 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
In comment 12782334 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


What is the average starting field position based on kickoffs? That is more relevant. Yes, more returns could lead to more kickoff returns for TDs but they could also lead to more fumbles by the return team. We need more statistics to make a valid argument.



Robbie, good point, I"m looking for that stat now. However, I think the goal of the special teams coaches, unless it's a squib or onside kick (or a special pooch play), I'd say that 95% of the time, the goal is a touchback. Brown wasn't good in this category last year, no matter how you slice it. Statistically, he was one of the worst full time kickers in the NFL.


I don't think a TB was always the goal under TC. We employed the mortar kick fairly regularly and TC noted before that it was intentional, in hopes of forcing fumbles or tackling the runner before the 20.
The average LOS after kickoffs for the Giants was 21.7  
WillieYoung : 1/22/2016 1:03 pm : link
which ranked 11th in the league. You don't throw away a money field goal kicker to try to get to New England's 20.2
the Bills were first at 20.07  
WillieYoung : 1/22/2016 1:06 pm : link
but they have a kick-off specialist.
with the XP being moved back to a 33 yard kick  
ECham : 1/22/2016 1:12 pm : link
and no longer being automatic.

i would take a Kicker like Brown with fewer touchbacks but only missing 1 XP .

there were many kicks this year who missed 5+ XP's
RE: the Giants are always good at finding kickers...  
PSIMMS 22-25-268 : 1/22/2016 1:14 pm : link
In comment 12782352 Mike in St. Louis said:
Quote:
for other teams...Matt Stover, Olindo Mare, Matt Bryant, to name a few...


Don't forget one kicking this weekend (McManus)
Missed the most meaningful kick  
rocco8112 : 1/22/2016 1:26 pm : link
of the year against the jets
I think the bigger question concerning kickers ...  
Beer Man : 1/22/2016 1:27 pm : link
will McAdoo be more patient with young kickers than TC? TC always seemed to go with the Vets over the promising youngsters.
RE: RE: RE: I don't think the total yardage given up is fair.  
Moondawg : 1/22/2016 1:32 pm : link
In comment 12782377 GMenLTS said:
Quote:
In comment 12782351 Matt in SGS said:


Quote:


In comment 12782334 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


What is the average starting field position based on kickoffs? That is more relevant. Yes, more returns could lead to more kickoff returns for TDs but they could also lead to more fumbles by the return team. We need more statistics to make a valid argument.



Robbie, good point, I"m looking for that stat now. However, I think the goal of the special teams coaches, unless it's a squib or onside kick (or a special pooch play), I'd say that 95% of the time, the goal is a touchback. Brown wasn't good in this category last year, no matter how you slice it. Statistically, he was one of the worst full time kickers in the NFL.



I don't think a TB was always the goal under TC. We employed the mortar kick fairly regularly and TC noted before that it was intentional, in hopes of forcing fumbles or tackling the runner before the 20.


This is my thinking as well.
RE: The average LOS after kickoffs for the Giants was 21.7  
timintey : 1/22/2016 1:42 pm : link
In comment 12782390 WillieYoung said:
Quote:
which ranked 11th in the league. You don't throw away a money field goal kicker to try to get to New England's 20.2

This!
Move of a reflection of kick coverage than distance. If he consistently kicks it inside the 10, there's no reason the opponent should start beyond the 25-30.
that McManus we traded to Denver  
I Love Clams Casino : 1/22/2016 1:51 pm : link
has one hell of a leg
McManus and Boswell were both identified...  
Mike in St. Louis : 1/22/2016 1:51 pm : link
in the OP...
Has brown hit a pressure kick  
Old Dirty Beckham : 1/22/2016 1:54 pm : link
here? I dont trust him.
RE: Has brown hit a pressure kick  
timintey : 1/22/2016 2:04 pm : link
In comment 12782503 Old Dirty Beckham said:
Quote:
here? I dont trust him.

kicked an OT winner vs Detroit a couple of years back. How many pressure kicks has he honestly had here?
Another  
Doomster : 1/22/2016 3:01 pm : link
year to early or year too late decision.....
Might not be fair  
joeinpa : 1/22/2016 5:06 pm : link
But I judge kickers on what they do in biggest of moments. Jets overtime difficult to forget.
He lost us 2 games this year  
gidiefor : Mod : 1/22/2016 5:48 pm : link
one in overtime and one with weak kickoffs
Giants  
Toth029 : 1/23/2016 9:17 am : link
Defense lost them that Jets game. Offense late in the game didn't help matters, like OBJ's drop.
....  
Toth029 : 1/23/2016 9:18 am : link
It's like seeing people say "Walsh lost the game for the Vikings" in the playoff game this year. No, they lost because Teddy Bridgewater and their pass game stunk, couldn't have any efficiency and create big plays, and their running game was putrid. Peterson gave away a fumble which set up the score for Seattle to take the lead. But Walsh gets all the blame because he missed a FG late.
Tough call  
DavidinBMNY : 1/23/2016 9:44 am : link
On one hand I would move on. He's probably costs
a decent amount and a younger kicker could be added.

On the other hand Wing is still pretty inexperienced.

Give. The Giants are a 6-10 team, I'd lean towards reallocating those dollars unless his all in number is around $ 1 Mil.
Keep  
Rong5611 : 1/23/2016 9:59 am : link
The guy is a Pro Bowl kicker, reliable. I'd keep assuming the price makes sense.
I'm torn  
Matt M. : 1/23/2016 11:48 am : link
I would love to have him back. he has been excellent and better than expected. But, he will be looking for more money and I don't want to spend much more on a PK when we have a ton of positions to fill.
Is it me, or does his Touchback  
Gmen703 : 1/23/2016 11:54 am : link
Percentage seem low. Let me look that up.
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