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Some advice for Jerry Reese on drafting in the lower

That’s Gold, Jerry : 2/3/2016 11:18 am
rounds...not from me, this comes from one of the NFL GMs in Super Bowl 50, John Elway “We cherish the bottom of the draft. We cannot afford to miss a draft, because we want to be good for a long time here, and teams that are good for a long time do not miss drafts.”

Elway also talks about finding players that love football. He refers to Chris Harris Jr., an undrafted free agent, on that subject and he also talks about drafting speed, not 40 speed but football speed.

Basically he talks about drafting football players not projects or athletes who may or may not be football players...guys who have a competitive fire. Completely contrary to the crap we have heard from Reese since the end of the season.

And for those who think Elway does not know his job or did not earn it...he learned, like BB, from his Dad who was an excellent coach and personnel guy. Elway also earned his spurs running a team in the AFL for 5 years. Fact is, he's been pretty successful...two SBs in five years under two different head coaches.
Reese: We look at everything.  
FranknWeezer : 2/3/2016 11:21 am : link
We explore all our options.
Blah blah blah.
So the advice is to take the draft picks seriously  
jcn56 : 2/3/2016 11:22 am : link
and find guys who love to play football?

No offense - but did we need brilliant football mind John Elway to tell us that?
jcn56...apparently we  
That’s Gold, Jerry : 2/3/2016 11:22 am : link
do
I agree......  
GiantBlue : 2/3/2016 11:26 am : link
We know Reese seems to have a good grasp of Day 1 of the draft. But the last several season I keep scratching my heads with his Day 2 and 3 picks; sometimes having to resort to the deep end of the position ranking for some of these guys; Herman, Mosely, Brewer, Berhe, Etc.

I think his strategy of going for team captains was a positive step last year because then you have a good shot of getting leadership and football desire from the draftee.
Have long felt that rounds 1 and 2 are for  
idiotsavant : 2/3/2016 11:50 am : link
professionals, positional experts, coaches.

Whereas rounds in 3-7 I had (we here as well) typically equaled that or exceeded it using stats and sound logic.

For example, take a quality pundits top 30 or so at a position, cross reference that with a single stat, such as PDs or INTs for linebackers, or Forced Fumbles or Fumbles Recovered for defensive linesmen, and work backwards from that to determine a balance of other obvious stats (tackles, where what type) and only then size and speed, not regarding school attended much at all except with regards to character possibly, or academic style.

For example, understanding that field vision is innate, not taught, and thus giving full credit for college stats, as possibly the only window into it, as opposed to assuming wrongly that it will be 'coached up once here.'

In addition, seeing the draft as a whole item, and this respecting the need to address need early if at all rational value wise, to avoid getting forced to compromise on value lower down, and to play the trends to make value proposition more leveraged all the way down, keeping in mind the teams unique key positions that will enhance the others in that unit/side etc.
2014 was the "team Captain" draft  
Vanzetti : 2/3/2016 11:50 am : link
And while it was a good draft, I don't think the team captain-character had much to do with it.

OBJ is a great talent but his number one problem is lack of maturity on the field

Jay Bromley was not guilty of rape, thank god. But he did something really stupid in getting involved with this prostitute.

Kennard, Behre and Jackson are all injury prone. Injuries are the Giants #1 problem, so forget about being team captain and draft guys who are healthy.

Andre Williams does seem like a solid citizen but he is a terrible fit for the offense. Again draft a RB who can catch rather than a team captain
I'm not sure that the problem that they have in the late rounds  
Ten Ton Hammer : 2/3/2016 11:54 am : link
is that they are drafting guys that "don't love football".

Everyone's looking for an easy answer to bang on.
Guys who love football  
KWALL2 : 2/3/2016 12:00 pm : link
Great tip. Thanks Elway.
for example, rather than 'strength of the draft positionally by year  
idiotsavant : 2/3/2016 12:00 pm : link
'

One would do 'strength of each round by position' and try to match that with need to get best value all the down.

(the positional mock is one way to look at that as a fan)

In addition, while doing that, not being locked into a narrow window on 'player type within positional unit', thus lowering the value play within the approach (bromley/odiggy)...

IN addition, not being seduced by 'hype types' (such as tall long armed speedster wide outs as opposed to proven slot receivers with the stats advantage and proven reliability on college), keeping in mind the true value play there, that within the first group, proven players are typically off the board by say, round 4, and 'coaching up the ones with warts' is a crapshoot.
Wow, reaching two Super Bowls in five years as GM. That's amazing.  
Big Blue Blogger : 2/3/2016 12:02 pm : link
Imagine if he actually wins this one instead of getting blown out. That would really be something.

I won't even bring up the absurd fantasy of a GM winning two Super Bowls in his first five years. I bet nobody has ever done that.
RE: for example, rather than 'strength of the draft positionally by year  
jcn56 : 2/3/2016 12:03 pm : link
In comment 12799041 idiotsavant said:
Quote:
'

One would do 'strength of each round by position' and try to match that with need to get best value all the down.

(the positional mock is one way to look at that as a fan)

In addition, while doing that, not being locked into a narrow window on 'player type within positional unit', thus lowering the value play within the approach (bromley/odiggy)...

IN addition, not being seduced by 'hype types' (such as tall long armed speedster wide outs as opposed to proven slot receivers with the stats advantage and proven reliability on college), keeping in mind the true value play there, that within the first group, proven players are typically off the board by say, round 4, and 'coaching up the ones with warts' is a crapshoot.


Help me out here - how does identifying players by value positionally for the entire draft differ from doing that on a round by round basis, if at the end of the day you're still selecting the guy with the highest ranking left on the board?
consider the time factor involved in the method that they use  
idiotsavant : 2/3/2016 12:05 pm : link
it would be a pyramid if done visually.

In other words, in the early part of the draft (top 20 players) you have a great ratio of staff time to player number.

So, consequently, they do fairly well.

Lower down, you have 1,000's of guys, and they have wildly varying value tags depending on whom you ask.

So, lower rounds demand sound logic and rational insight more so that professional expertise, and in that area they are lacking as opposed to ourselves.
JCN  
idiotsavant : 2/3/2016 12:06 pm : link
if you assume a certain method that would make my approach impossible, than that is fair and you will not use my approach.

That would be 'on you.'
in other words  
idiotsavant : 2/3/2016 12:10 pm : link
the staff are human, and have a lower and lower ratio on time/# of players as the rounds go down.

What they assume is 'best overall' below round 2 has been very poor to date and I would not assume that such is even the method.

With my method, you manage the time invested as well as the draft as a whole, keeping in mind that teams operate as whole units, not groups of individuals.
like this  
idiotsavant : 2/3/2016 12:16 pm : link
by round:

3rd "likely to still have best players at position x still on the board" (often free safety, for example)

4th "likely to have best players at position Y still on the boards" (tight ends, or what have you, slot wrs)

The, taking your team needs and style into account, play the draft as a whole unit.
a lot of nonsense in the evaluation of the draft  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 2/3/2016 12:18 pm : link
teams get lucky and when they do then they are considered really good.

Richard Sherman and Tom Brady are classic examples. If the teams really were that good in the draft, they would have drafted either player in the first not in the fifth. As it was, any other team could have taken those players a minimum of four times before the Seahawks and NE wound up with them. Instead their evaluation was that they were fifth round players - which clearly was wrong. The other teams were more wrong, but that didn't make the Seahawks and NE brilliant - just lucky.

The teams that do well in the draft look really smart. But they often were just a little bit less wrong then everyone else. This says it all "Elway also talks about finding players that love football. He refers to Chris Harris Jr., an undrafted free agent, on that subject.... " If the guy is that good, Elway should have drafted him, not waited until every other GM passed on the player 7 times.

That doesn't mean that some teams/GMs aren't just bad in the draft. Cleveland proves that. However, it is very hard to be consistently right in the draft. Very few teams are. Elway has a long way to go before he can be considered to have a golden touch
correct me if I am wrong  
idiotsavant : 2/3/2016 12:23 pm : link
that Brady played for a number of different offensive coaches in college, did not always start, but did well when he did?

That Victor Cruz put of high #'s of catches yet in a division / at a school not as hyped as some others?

take a QB who played well behind a crap line as opposed to the one who played at the powerhouse?

Its more about avoiding bullshit than it is about insight.
Peter - formerly of CT - you must be wise...  
CT Charlie : 2/3/2016 12:25 pm : link
You're right. A lot of the draft is a crapshoot. There are some teams that do a little above or a little below average consistently, but there's a ton of luck. I think Belichick's plan of often trading down is a way of recognizing that the more picks you have, the better your chances of finding NFL talent -- during training camp, not on paper.

agree with that  
idiotsavant : 2/3/2016 12:28 pm : link
almost always advocate trade downs
That advice is about as good as Charles' skiing advice in  
Greg from LI : 2/3/2016 12:29 pm : link
Better Off Dead - "I'll tell you what to do. Go that way really fast, and if something gets in your way....turn!"
Curious about our drafting procedure now.  
TMS : 2/3/2016 12:40 pm : link
The last three years have been an improvement. This is our Front Office organizational breakdown :
President/CEO – John Mara
Chairman/Executive Vice President – Steve Tisch
Senior Vice President/General Manager – Jerry Reese
Senior Vice President of Player Personnel – Chris Mara
Vice President of Player Evaluation – Marc Ross
Assistant General Manager – Kevin Abrams
Director of Pro Personnel – Ken Sternfeld
Director of Player Development – David Tyree
Director of Football Operations – Vacant
Head Coaches
Head Coach – Ben McAdoo. After the Coughlin resignation we were told everybody has input into our draft selections. Has this undergone a change the last three years ? Anybody know ?
RE: That advice is about as good as Charles' skiing advice in  
drkenneth : 2/3/2016 12:44 pm : link
In comment 12799117 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Better Off Dead - "I'll tell you what to do. Go that way really fast, and if something gets in your way....turn!"


"I could be home drinking this killer egg-nog my brother makes with lighter fluid!"
I agree with Elway  
old man : 2/3/2016 12:57 pm : link
on this. You cant teach passion or heart. And each pick IS too valuable to waste.
Look at how BB sees how lower end guys can contribute, at least 1-3 years,; look how we have commended Seattle for hitting on their lower round picks; and now Denver has adopted the all picks count philosophy. And look at all the reachs and projects we've heard JR talk about.
Of course passion and heart are part of(or should be) the measurables; guys with that tend to have a hunger to learn, and if drafted 4-7, have the chip on the shoulder with something to prove.
Of course it helps to have a real clear vision of how the pick fits what you do, or plan to do, and not try to wedge a Sintim into what you do. Not sure BPA does that.
This draft should be interesting, especially from one perspective I've been complaining about for about 15 years: player/team speed. I look at other teams and I see guys like Keuchly and other bigger D players that are quicker or faster than our offensive guys, save OBJ. Our LBs cant go side to side quick enough to catch RBs behind the line but instead get outside their grasp and pick up 15. Our sweeps take to long to form.
Hoping JR has an '07 like draft.
I agree with Elway  
old man : 2/3/2016 12:58 pm : link
on this. You cant teach passion or heart. And each pick IS too valuable to waste.
Look at how BB sees how lower end guys can contribute, at least 1-3 years,; look how we have commended Seattle for hitting on their lower round picks; and now Denver has adopted the all picks count philosophy. And look at all the reachs and projects we've heard JR talk about.
Of course passion and heart are part of(or should be) the measurables; guys with that tend to have a hunger to learn, and if drafted 4-7, have the chip on the shoulder with something to prove.
Of course it helps to have a real clear vision of how the pick fits what you do, or plan to do, and not try to wedge a Sintim into what you do. Not sure BPA does that.
This draft should be interesting, especially from one perspective I've been complaining about for about 15 years: player/team speed. I look at other teams and I see guys like Keuchly and other bigger D players that are quicker or faster than our offensive guys, save OBJ. Our LBs cant go side to side quick enough to catch RBs behind the line but instead get outside their grasp and pick up 15. Our sweeps take to long to form.
Hoping JR has an '07 like draft.
It Appears That McAdoo Is Building A Coaching Staff  
Trainmaster : 2/3/2016 1:05 pm : link
that is strong on assistant coaches who can teach. I'm wondering how this may affect the Giants round 3 through 7 draft selections.

Guys who are available in rounds 3 through 7, compared to guys selected in rounds 1 and 2: are generally:

1) Not as big, fast, strong (can't change big, hard to change fast, can change strong)

2) Not as productive (might be the system they were in / poor fit which can change)

3) Not as skilled (might have the physical tools, but might not has the skills; this may be the where the teaching emphasis changes who the Giants draft)

4) Not as healthy (the Giants have gambled here and had mixed results at best; given the rash of injuries the last 3 years, I sincerely hope the Giants don't pick players with long / severe injury histories)

5) Not as "clean" as far as substance abuse, legal problems etc. (the Giants usually shy away from these guys; Bradshaw being worth the risk in rnd 7)

RE: I agree with Elway  
shabu : 2/3/2016 1:09 pm : link
In comment 12799177 old man said:
Quote:
on this. You cant teach passion or heart. And each pick IS too valuable to waste.
Look at how BB sees how lower end guys can contribute, at least 1-3 years,; look how we have commended Seattle for hitting on their lower round picks; and now Denver has adopted the all picks count philosophy. And look at all the reachs and projects we've heard JR talk about.
Of course passion and heart are part of(or should be) the measurables; guys with that tend to have a hunger to learn, and if drafted 4-7, have the chip on the shoulder with something to prove.
Of course it helps to have a real clear vision of how the pick fits what you do, or plan to do, and not try to wedge a Sintim into what you do. Not sure BPA does that.
This draft should be interesting, especially from one perspective I've been complaining about for about 15 years: player/team speed. I look at other teams and I see guys like Keuchly and other bigger D players that are quicker or faster than our offensive guys, save OBJ. Our LBs cant go side to side quick enough to catch RBs behind the line but instead get outside their grasp and pick up 15. Our sweeps take to long to form.
Hoping JR has an '07 like draft.


Yep. It's about drafting football players with football passion, not just athletes. From what I understand the Giants were doing a bit of athlete drafting when Ross arrived but hat had changed since 2013... And the drafts have improved !
RE: So the advice is to take the draft picks seriously  
shabu : 2/3/2016 1:40 pm : link
In comment 12798935 jcn56 said:
Quote:
and find guys who love to play football?

No offense - but did we need brilliant football mind John Elway to tell us that?


Look at Denver's roster, maybe the Giants should listen to Elway. lol
It boggles the mind  
Excitable Boy : 2/3/2016 1:50 pm : link
That Jerry Reese is still the GM of the Giants.
RE: It boggles the mind  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 2/3/2016 1:54 pm : link
In comment 12799277 Excitable Boy said:
Quote:
That Jerry Reese is still the GM of the Giants.


It boggles the mind how lonely your life must be to keep creating new handles.
Doesn't Elway know that....  
kinard : 2/3/2016 1:56 pm : link
..."the bottom of the draft" conflicts with things like the Kentucky Derby? How can Chris Mara focus on the 6th and 7th rounds of the draft when his buddies have horses running at Churchill Downs the same day?

Priorities, man, priorities....
Denver  
stretch234 : 2/3/2016 2:19 pm : link
Manning is not theirs, Sanders was not theirs, TE are not Theirs, 3 OL are not theirs. Ware, Ward, Talib, Marshall, FS are not theirs

The rest of their D 3 1s, 2, 5, 6 UFA

Thomas was a 1, Latimer a 2, Clady was a 1, Hillman a 3, Sambrailo a 2

A bunch of shit

Take a look at the Broncos' draft history  
David in LA : 2/3/2016 2:39 pm : link
they hit on Malik Jackson and Trevathan. Julius Thomas and Virgil Green were great value picks too. Elway started in the FO in 2011. Everyone else from round 3 and on don't seem like much to write home about. IMO, we were just unable to develop the lower round picks on our end. That's why I'm excited to see McAdoo place so much emphasis on guys with strong backgrounds in development.
Here's a link to the Broncos' drafts  
David in LA : 2/3/2016 2:40 pm : link
start from 2011 and on.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Curious about our drafting procedure now.  
shabu : 2/3/2016 3:27 pm : link
In comment 12799139 TMS said:
Quote:
The last three years have been an improvement. This is our Front Office organizational breakdown :
President/CEO – John Mara
Chairman/Executive Vice President – Steve Tisch
Senior Vice President/General Manager – Jerry Reese
Senior Vice President of Player Personnel – Chris Mara
Vice President of Player Evaluation – Marc Ross
Assistant General Manager – Kevin Abrams
Director of Pro Personnel – Ken Sternfeld
Director of Player Development – David Tyree
Director of Football Operations – Vacant
Head Coaches
Head Coach – Ben McAdoo. After the Coughlin resignation we were told everybody has input into our draft selections. Has this undergone a change the last three years ? Anybody know ?


Something changed in the front office when the drafts got better. ( around 2013 ) someone here said that C. Mara was put over Reese's org ... don't know if true or not... that is significant if true and right around the time the drafting improved.
RE: Wow, reaching two Super Bowls in five years as GM. That's amazing.  
Jersey55 : 2/3/2016 4:51 pm : link
In comment 12799046 Big Blue Blogger said:
Quote:
Imagine if he actually wins this one instead of getting blown out. That would really be something.

I won't even bring up the absurd fantasy of a GM winning two Super Bowls in his first five years. I bet nobody has ever done that.

how the hell does a GM get credit for winning a SB?
The GM gets credit, because he put the team together  
David in LA : 2/3/2016 4:52 pm : link
it's not complex math to figure it out. Yes, he's a partial contributor to the organizational success.
Didn't you hear?  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 2/3/2016 4:55 pm : link
The GM gets no credit for success, but is torn to shreds for failure. Get with the program. ;)
Shabu: The problem with that narrative...  
Big Blue Blogger : 2/3/2016 5:32 pm : link
...is that it doesn't even fit the skimpy evidence available.
shabu said:
Quote:
Something changed in the front office when the drafts got better. ( around 2013 ) someone here said that C. Mara was put over Reese's org ... don't know if true or not... that is significant if true and right around the time the drafting improved.

Well sure: it could be significant (or not) if true, but here's the rub, straight from Chris Mara's bio on Giants.com:
Quote:
He was promoted to Senior Vice President of Player Personnel in 2011.

Awesome: just in time to straighten out Reese & Ross, and oversee the selection of David Wilson, Jayron Hosley and Adrien Robinson. I couldn't find the date of his promotion, so I might be unfairly denying him credit for Marvin Austin, Jerrel Jernigan and James Brewer.
Speed on offense and defense  
CJ in AZ : 2/3/2016 9:29 pm : link
Old Man is right, the Giants' drafts for 15 years have failed to give enough value to "player/team speed." We see that every game: our offense, less OBJ and the injured Cruz, is not particularly quick or fast. Our defense has perhaps 3-4 of 11 who could be generously called NFL quick or fast for their positions. Not enough.
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