Rangers coming off a "huh?" loss to the Devils, while the Wild have lost eight of their last nine games. Megna was called up yesterday, Nash is still out, and McIlrath will presumably make his return in Klein's place.
I read the study at the time it came out and had a few issues with it, such as the use of plus/minus as an evaluation tool. I also think that the game has changed significantly over the course of the sample size used in the study (I think it was 14 years and that the game has gotten increasingly commoditized - I'd point to the collapsing point totals of the leaders and the rising SV% of goaltenders as evidence of this.
The article also does a disservice to the study (which is almost always the case) - they offered an alternative explanation of player participation that lowered the 'peak age' using the modal age (and the mean is pretty close to the modal age, IIRC - maybe a year higher) that has it closer to 26-27. I'd argue that the method used that's cited in the article can't adjust for survivorship bias, which the study also points out.
tl;dr: Davisian is partially correct (and the study partially discusses that as well). And I think teams will always have difficulty properly judging peaks/declines. How dumb would a team have felt letting Alfredsson go before his explosion at 33?
I think the Rangers have played better in recent weeks despite somewhat underwhelming results - if they go on a streak and win, say, eight of ten prior to the deadline and look good doing so, would you retain Yandle and make a run for it or trade him for (theoretically) a first/prospect?
they should keep Yandle barring a trade that sends us back a Shattenkirk type.
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
they should keep Yandle barring a trade that sends us back a Shattenkirk type.
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
RE: That McDavid goal they just showed on MSG was pretty. Â
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
I wouldnt. They are 23-28, will not make the playoffs, and 1-8-1 in their last 10.
Hey - a win is a win and we're playing without arguably our best offensive player and arguably our best defensive player right now. I will take it - but the schedule gets very tough starting in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. We'll see what we're made of soon enough.
Pittsburgh, who you have been obsessed with fluffing for a long time, is 25-24 and is currently sitting outside of a playoff position.
Not saying Minnesota is a strong opponent, but dismissing them completely while saying the schedule gets much tougher when they go to Pittsburgh is kind of excessive.
battling with Nashville and Arizona for that final slot that none of them seems interested in taking.
Dubnyk played out of his mind last year - it wasnt sustainable. They dont have nearly enough scoring in that lineup to compete in the toughest division in hockey.
teams i've seen in some time. Will some teams give them a run come playoff time, of course - the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win in pro sports.. the Hawks and Kings were both tested to their limits in recent years too.
If they play a Boston or NJ or Philly in round 1, they'll smoke them. Pittsburgh has enough pieces to be a dangerous first round opponent unlike those other teams.
I mean the other shoe has to drop for the Caps eventually right? Â
is probably facing Florida/Tampa as a 7 seed anyway though. Unless Montreal gets Price back soon and that doesnt look likely - i dont see a 4th good team in the Atlantic. Definitely the weakest division in hockey this year. Florida is a good young team, but they are making last year's Islanders run against back-up goalies look like child's play.
The Caps are a lot like last year's Rangers, IMO. Â
but you should look at teams on a PPG basis. In the East Pittsburgh is in replacing NJ as the 7. In the West, Colorado is out, Dallas is actually leading the Central (so STL gets CHI yet again) and Minnesota is in by a threadhair at Dallas.
The East I agree isnt great, but i do think 4 of the 5 or 6 best teams are in the Metro. The Metro is also a deep division - aside from CBJ who should be better than this, there arent terrible teams as you see in the Atlantic.
Its probably a good year to take 4th place in the Metro and take your chances in the first two rounds with the Florida teams. Who knows if Stamkos will even still be on Tampa at that point, though I would think he would be.
the West probably gets a little too much respect by the way Â
maybe the Kings Hawks and Stars are the best teams in hockey, i dont know, but their wild card teams are currently playing at 1.07-1.08 PPG pace.
In the East the wild card teams are at 1.16 and 1.14 respectively. Philly and NJ would be the wild card teams (1.12 and 1.10 respectively) in the West.
Anaheim and San Jose would be wild card teams in the east - in the West they occupy #2 and #3 in their division.
It's not as deep as the last two years -- which was my biggest complaint about having uneven conferences. Winnipeg, Minnesota, Vancouver and Calgary have all been big busts this year.
Interesting changes. I think Pittsburgh would likely beat the Panthers and then beat the winner of TB/BOS.
As for the West, I don't watch a lot of San Jose/Los Angeles/Anaheim games so I always look forward to watching those teams in the playoffs. I can't speak for the quality of those teams this year other than their record and watching highlights, but it always seems that Chicago plays in a great first round series that propels them towards the Cup. Wouldn't mind seeing CHI/STL again at all.
MIN/DAL would also be a good series. Lots of good players on the ice.
My buddy just sent me this article..
Quote:
The first-year GM is on the spot. It won’t be easy for Gorton — who has no track record — to resist quick-fix options that are sure to present themselves. Winnipeg has been scouting the Rangers for a while, and yes indeed, Andrew Ladd would sure look good wearing the Blueshirt for the stretch run and into the playoffs.
Surely the Jets would be willing to take some combination of J.T. Miller, Pavel Buchnevich, a first-rounder and Dylan McIlrath off Broadway in return for the high-end rental property.
Um..?
Just as an aside, just realized this yesterday sitting at MSG...an absolute insane few months of sports coming up.
March - Big FA period for the Giants, and of course, the NCAA Tournament.
April - May - Playoff hockey..nothing better. Baseball coming back almost cancels that out though. NBA playoffs too but who really cares. Also the NFL Draft.
This Summer you have the Euro Cup and the Olympics, along with the usual tennis/golf tourneys.
Finally, followed by the Preseason, the World Cup of Hockey, and by the time we know it, the NFL/NHL regular seasons are back.
But as a 30 year old rental, there is absolutely no way on earth I'd ever give up that much for him, particularly since Miller is outscoring him this year.
Nash's spot next year. Fuck it - nothing to lose. Lets see what he can do with the opportunity - we have to get him over here next year. Just wish he was here this year.
The Rangers have been high on Ladd since his draft year. Â
Not only the production, but his physicality and other aspects to his game. I really hope we dont firesale the guy this offseason (or dump him+ for Ladd), but i cant pencil him in for a top 6 role at this time. He'll need to earn that.
Meanwhile you didnt include Stepan or Brassard but those guys are still really young too.
If we could just dump G and/or Staal i'd feel a lot better about our next 5 years.
Going to be 29 next season. Brassard will be as well. Good point on Stepan.
I think the concerns over Hayes is overblown. I was cautious regarding a sophomore slump and think the physicality stuff is pretty much nonsense. His most common linemate last year was Hagelin, who helped him quite a bit (especially in the defensive zone).
Check out the article below. I think it makes a good case that Hayes is largely getting unlucky. Blueseat Blogs - ( New Window )
good enlightening article though it doesnt address defense or physicality. I do hope we keep him as mentioned above.
As far as "vitriol" towards the guy as mentioned in the article - well a lot of this is coming after scathing words from AV last month. Perhaps the organization and its idiot coach should be supporting this kid, not throwing him under a bus.
It's just like what people used to bitch about with Boyle. If you're a huge finesse player, some people will give you shit regardless of how you're playing. Boyle wasn't physical, but he was a terrific defensive center and penalty killer. The problem with Hayes is that his production has plummeted. He wasn't any more physical last year, but no one was complaining then.
Trading Duclair was massively dumb, and we're going to regret it for a long time.
MAB, I thought that was a bit of a strawman. I haven't seen anyone advocate for him being traded, and there's a ton of reasons to be frustrated on this team - a guy who many anticipated to take the next step logically could be one of them. The substance of the article was good, however.
The last time Joe Thornton hit as much as Hayes did last year was 2010-2011. He isn't a physical player. Hayes obviously isn't nearly as skilled, but he could hopefully be a 60-70 point player in his prime.
To be fair, I think things like grit and physicality are generally overrated by fans, so I could be overly discounting them.
And regarding defense - he is absolutely lazy in the defensive zone sometimes. But highly skilled young players typically suck in the defensive zone because they're so used to controlling the puck in the lower levels - or they just won board battles based on superior athleticism/skill. I expect him to improve there over time.
I also don't know why Stepan largely escapes criticism Â
but he's taken so many stupid back-breaking penalties this year too.
But a) I've got a soft spot for "SE" and i think he'll turn it around, and b) I do think he came back too early from his injury sustained in Boston and that's played a part.
Steps is still a young kid but he's had some nasty injuries the last couple of years - broken femur, broken jaw, broken ribs - hopefully not taking their toll.
n Kevin Klein’s world, “indefinitely” means one game.
The defenseman said he was going to play Saturday in Philadelphia after missing just one game with a fractured right thumb suffered against the Devils on Tuesday.
I'm lookin forward to your responses but that article is a beautiful thing. Written by this Dave SHapiro guy who always pops up on Twitter saying things that are just ridiculous sometimes....Is this one of you guys here on BBI???
This article is one of the most perfect specimens of why perhaps some of you and I won't really agree on anything. Ever. I just read a whole article where none of it had to do with watching hockey and everything to do with some numbers that he used to try and create an image of something he wanted to say.
I don't know what the random numbers say, I just know I've watched the Rangers play every game and you can see when Kevin Hayes is playing well and when he's not and it's easy because he mostly is playing awfully and when he plays well you really notice.
I can use stats too. For instance, he has one goal in a month. But he also has 2 goals since 11/23. And the goal in November was the 3rd goal in a 3-0 win, on the PP with less than half the period left. 5 goals since October 22nd. So thats about a goal a month or so. And not exactly game changing, impact goals....
Another obvious one is that he loses 7 of 10 faceoffs every game. And the other obvious stat is that he has 34 hits. Just the raw number means that a guy who plays 14 minutes a game and has played in 49 games means that he doesn't bother throwing a check in every game. Why bother? If you want to go a little more detailed though, he has 34 hits and Tanner Glass has 104. Mats Zuke has 50+ and he is a midget who actually scores and uses his skills while playing at least 90% effort every game. And no I don't have a number for that, I just watc.
The reason to me why the hits stat matters is because its the ultimate way to show that his game is lacking the overall impact that it should and it is one of the ways to show that there is not enough physical play and effort to play in the offensive zone. One more stat to throw in is that while the Whipping Boy starts 60% of the game in the defensive end, Hayes starts 66% of his shifts in the offensive end. SO he's losing his faceoffs, not hitting anyone so the puck stays in the corners or on the boards, and not scoring any goals.
He's a great example of a player who you can look at these numbers and think, "oh he's not bad" but if you watch him, he simply doesn't impact the game at all. Last year he had 17 goals and 45 points but it was an impact game. He played a game that affected opponents and was great for a rookie. He's not a physical maniac but when you can use your body to go to the net and make plays and cause problems for their team by being a third liner playing above that line, it's a big deal for a team lacking it. Then this year he is the opposite of that. He is passive. He is neither scoring nor making a difference in the games. He is 6'5" 225 and he plays softer than Brian Boyle who was called soft everyday. So no Kevin Hayes is not awful but he is not good this year. And the thing is, he came into the league after college and made an immediate impact but also got BETTER as the season went on. You thought he would get bettter and better and then start to make use of his combo of size and skill to be a power forward that teams didn't want to play. What's it matter if you're big if you play like you are invisible? He has played a couple decent games recently. We'll see. He can make such a massive difference. That's whats most frustrating. If you wanted to see a team that was similar to last year, you wanted to see Hayes be a player who became someone who makes teams better.
Pointing to goals and ignoring his unlucky shooting percentage (the same stat you mocked when people pointed to when discussing the sustainability of the Rangers early season play) is silly.
He's not nearly the skater Brassard is. I mentioned last season, the difference (besides position) between Oscar Lindberg and Danny Kristo making it to the NHL is likely skating. Lindberg glides and creates chances. IMO, Stepan is not an elite skater and doesn't have that elite attribute to make up for it. Not an sharp shooter, tremendous play maker or skater. He's better than average at everything but i don't see him as somebody you can rely on for a growing point production year after year.
Pointing to goals and ignoring his unlucky shooting percentage (the same stat you mocked when people pointed to when discussing the sustainability of the Rangers early season play) is silly.
The hit stuff is just nonsense.
i never mocked shooting percentage. I said the opposite. I said shooting % is more important than amount of shots. I said the puck going in is more important than how many times you shoot it towards the net. I said goals are more important than shots.
Peak performance (seth) vs peak production (deej).
Very different things.
"we aren't winning because we are missing the key ingredient: old, bad players"
but no look check it out:
For co-author James Brander, the bottom line of their study is that "the key to winning is having good, young players."
The article also does a disservice to the study (which is almost always the case) - they offered an alternative explanation of player participation that lowered the 'peak age' using the modal age (and the mean is pretty close to the modal age, IIRC - maybe a year higher) that has it closer to 26-27. I'd argue that the method used that's cited in the article can't adjust for survivorship bias, which the study also points out.
tl;dr: Davisian is partially correct (and the study partially discusses that as well). And I think teams will always have difficulty properly judging peaks/declines. How dumb would a team have felt letting Alfredsson go before his explosion at 33?
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
Edmonton would hold out for the addition of Marcus Kuhn.
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
I wouldnt. They are 23-28, will not make the playoffs, and 1-8-1 in their last 10.
Hey - a win is a win and we're playing without arguably our best offensive player and arguably our best defensive player right now. I will take it - but the schedule gets very tough starting in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. We'll see what we're made of soon enough.
Kinda shocked by that. Dubnyk must be struggling.
Not saying Minnesota is a strong opponent, but dismissing them completely while saying the schedule gets much tougher when they go to Pittsburgh is kind of excessive.
Dubnyk played out of his mind last year - it wasnt sustainable. They dont have nearly enough scoring in that lineup to compete in the toughest division in hockey.
Fuck Tony.
If they play a Boston or NJ or Philly in round 1, they'll smoke them. Pittsburgh has enough pieces to be a dangerous first round opponent unlike those other teams.
I mean, they have 5 losses in regulation when Holtby starts. It's February.
Tampa Bay would play Boston
Rangers would play the Islanders
Caps would play Detroit
Chicago would play Nashville again
Dallas would play St Louis
Los Angeles would play Colorado
San Jose would play Anaheim
First thing that jumps out at me is how good the 1st round matchups are in the West. Lots of late nights there. Every series is great.
The East is weak. I think Detroit would give the Caps a scare. Not sure I would want to play the Isles.
Anaheim has bounced back nicely from their awful start.
The East I agree isnt great, but i do think 4 of the 5 or 6 best teams are in the Metro. The Metro is also a deep division - aside from CBJ who should be better than this, there arent terrible teams as you see in the Atlantic.
Its probably a good year to take 4th place in the Metro and take your chances in the first two rounds with the Florida teams. Who knows if Stamkos will even still be on Tampa at that point, though I would think he would be.
In the East the wild card teams are at 1.16 and 1.14 respectively. Philly and NJ would be the wild card teams (1.12 and 1.10 respectively) in the West.
Anaheim and San Jose would be wild card teams in the east - in the West they occupy #2 and #3 in their division.
It's not as deep as the last two years -- which was my biggest complaint about having uneven conferences. Winnipeg, Minnesota, Vancouver and Calgary have all been big busts this year.
As for the West, I don't watch a lot of San Jose/Los Angeles/Anaheim games so I always look forward to watching those teams in the playoffs. I can't speak for the quality of those teams this year other than their record and watching highlights, but it always seems that Chicago plays in a great first round series that propels them towards the Cup. Wouldn't mind seeing CHI/STL again at all.
MIN/DAL would also be a good series. Lots of good players on the ice.
My buddy just sent me this article..
Surely the Jets would be willing to take some combination of J.T. Miller, Pavel Buchnevich, a first-rounder and Dylan McIlrath off Broadway in return for the high-end rental property.
Um..?
Just as an aside, just realized this yesterday sitting at MSG...an absolute insane few months of sports coming up.
March - Big FA period for the Giants, and of course, the NCAA Tournament.
April - May - Playoff hockey..nothing better. Baseball coming back almost cancels that out though. NBA playoffs too but who really cares. Also the NFL Draft.
This Summer you have the Euro Cup and the Olympics, along with the usual tennis/golf tourneys.
Finally, followed by the Preseason, the World Cup of Hockey, and by the time we know it, the NFL/NHL regular seasons are back.
I do prefer Glass to Megna.
Of course, I'd love to never see either of them on the ice again.
The media apparently hasnt gotten the memo that forwards peak in their mid-20s. They love the shiny.
I really wish we had Duclair and Buchnevich next year.
Hayes, Buch, Duclair, Miller, Zucc and Kreider in the top six would have been a nice young core to build around. Oh well.
Meanwhile you didnt include Stepan or Brassard but those guys are still really young too.
If we could just dump G and/or Staal i'd feel a lot better about our next 5 years.
I think the concerns over Hayes is overblown. I was cautious regarding a sophomore slump and think the physicality stuff is pretty much nonsense. His most common linemate last year was Hagelin, who helped him quite a bit (especially in the defensive zone).
Check out the article below. I think it makes a good case that Hayes is largely getting unlucky.
Blueseat Blogs - ( New Window )
As far as "vitriol" towards the guy as mentioned in the article - well a lot of this is coming after scathing words from AV last month. Perhaps the organization and its idiot coach should be supporting this kid, not throwing him under a bus.
Trading Duclair was massively dumb, and we're going to regret it for a long time.
The last time Joe Thornton hit as much as Hayes did last year was 2010-2011. He isn't a physical player. Hayes obviously isn't nearly as skilled, but he could hopefully be a 60-70 point player in his prime.
To be fair, I think things like grit and physicality are generally overrated by fans, so I could be overly discounting them.
I was talking about that with a friend last night. He's been atrocious. Guy's making me look like an idiot for defending his contract this off-season.
Fucking Badgers...
But a) I've got a soft spot for "SE" and i think he'll turn it around, and b) I do think he came back too early from his injury sustained in Boston and that's played a part.
Steps is still a young kid but he's had some nasty injuries the last couple of years - broken femur, broken jaw, broken ribs - hopefully not taking their toll.
The defenseman said he was going to play Saturday in Philadelphia after missing just one game with a fractured right thumb suffered against the Devils on Tuesday.
I'm lookin forward to your responses but that article is a beautiful thing. Written by this Dave SHapiro guy who always pops up on Twitter saying things that are just ridiculous sometimes....Is this one of you guys here on BBI???
This article is one of the most perfect specimens of why perhaps some of you and I won't really agree on anything. Ever. I just read a whole article where none of it had to do with watching hockey and everything to do with some numbers that he used to try and create an image of something he wanted to say.
I don't know what the random numbers say, I just know I've watched the Rangers play every game and you can see when Kevin Hayes is playing well and when he's not and it's easy because he mostly is playing awfully and when he plays well you really notice.
I can use stats too. For instance, he has one goal in a month. But he also has 2 goals since 11/23. And the goal in November was the 3rd goal in a 3-0 win, on the PP with less than half the period left. 5 goals since October 22nd. So thats about a goal a month or so. And not exactly game changing, impact goals....
Another obvious one is that he loses 7 of 10 faceoffs every game. And the other obvious stat is that he has 34 hits. Just the raw number means that a guy who plays 14 minutes a game and has played in 49 games means that he doesn't bother throwing a check in every game. Why bother? If you want to go a little more detailed though, he has 34 hits and Tanner Glass has 104. Mats Zuke has 50+ and he is a midget who actually scores and uses his skills while playing at least 90% effort every game. And no I don't have a number for that, I just watc.
The reason to me why the hits stat matters is because its the ultimate way to show that his game is lacking the overall impact that it should and it is one of the ways to show that there is not enough physical play and effort to play in the offensive zone. One more stat to throw in is that while the Whipping Boy starts 60% of the game in the defensive end, Hayes starts 66% of his shifts in the offensive end. SO he's losing his faceoffs, not hitting anyone so the puck stays in the corners or on the boards, and not scoring any goals.
He's a great example of a player who you can look at these numbers and think, "oh he's not bad" but if you watch him, he simply doesn't impact the game at all. Last year he had 17 goals and 45 points but it was an impact game. He played a game that affected opponents and was great for a rookie. He's not a physical maniac but when you can use your body to go to the net and make plays and cause problems for their team by being a third liner playing above that line, it's a big deal for a team lacking it. Then this year he is the opposite of that. He is passive. He is neither scoring nor making a difference in the games. He is 6'5" 225 and he plays softer than Brian Boyle who was called soft everyday. So no Kevin Hayes is not awful but he is not good this year. And the thing is, he came into the league after college and made an immediate impact but also got BETTER as the season went on. You thought he would get bettter and better and then start to make use of his combo of size and skill to be a power forward that teams didn't want to play. What's it matter if you're big if you play like you are invisible? He has played a couple decent games recently. We'll see. He can make such a massive difference. That's whats most frustrating. If you wanted to see a team that was similar to last year, you wanted to see Hayes be a player who became someone who makes teams better.
The hit stuff is just nonsense.
Ovechkin is ranked 19th in hits so far this season.
He's not nearly the skater Brassard is. I mentioned last season, the difference (besides position) between Oscar Lindberg and Danny Kristo making it to the NHL is likely skating. Lindberg glides and creates chances. IMO, Stepan is not an elite skater and doesn't have that elite attribute to make up for it. Not an sharp shooter, tremendous play maker or skater. He's better than average at everything but i don't see him as somebody you can rely on for a growing point production year after year.
The hit stuff is just nonsense.
i never mocked shooting percentage. I said the opposite. I said shooting % is more important than amount of shots. I said the puck going in is more important than how many times you shoot it towards the net. I said goals are more important than shots.