Rangers coming off a "huh?" loss to the Devils, while the Wild have lost eight of their last nine games. Megna was called up yesterday, Nash is still out, and McIlrath will presumably make his return in Klein's place.
he has better PP metrics this year than Hayes Kreider and Miller. But its more about believing Megna absolutely sucks at hockey and has no business being called up over better Hartford players than anything else.
As bad a year as Nash has had, his loss really hurts. We are thin up front -- in large part because for some reason they felt the need to dump Etem for peanuts.
Philly's seven points back with two games in hand. Them winning those two and beating us would theoretically have them one point behind. I think Lundqvist should play Saturday.
I think Henrik plays pretty much every game. AV's going to lean on him to try to save the season, but he's just going to burn Henrik out for the playoffs.
I'd try McIlrath out there on the PP1 with Yandle as a big shot, moving over one of those to PP2. Yandle is very, very skilled at setting up the one-timer on the PP.
Speaking of Lindberg, what are your opinions on him thus far?
Obviously the pace in which he was scoring earlier in the year was going to slow down, but I think he's going to be a real nice player for us.
This is in part of why I'm confused as to what the plan is for this team going forward. I know that some think that the window may be closing for a cup, especially with how they've played this season, but I think given the number of young players we have, the window could theoretically open back up pretty quickly.
Stepan, Brassard, Lindberg, Fast, Miller, Hayes (if he's still on the team), Buchnevich, Graves, Skjei, McIlrath and some others are a pretty good group going forward. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Nash. That could be the decision that shapes this team for the next 5 years.
It seems like we're putting all of our goal scoring eggs in Buchnevich's basket though. He cannot be a bust.
I'd try McIlrath out there on the PP1 with Yandle as a big shot, moving over one of those to PP2. Yandle is very, very skilled at setting up the one-timer on the PP.
Agree with this. McIlrath has shown to have a pretty hard and accurate shot from the point.
RE: Speaking of Lindberg, what are your opinions on him thus far?
Obviously the pace in which he was scoring earlier in the year was going to slow down, but I think he's going to be a real nice player for us.
This is in part of why I'm confused as to what the plan is for this team going forward. I know that some think that the window may be closing for a cup, especially with how they've played this season, but I think given the number of young players we have, the window could theoretically open back up pretty quickly.
Stepan, Brassard, Lindberg, Fast, Miller, Hayes (if he's still on the team), Buchnevich, Graves, Skjei, McIlrath and some others are a pretty good group going forward. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Nash. That could be the decision that shapes this team for the next 5 years.
It seems like we're putting all of our goal scoring eggs in Buchnevich's basket though. He cannot be a bust.
I frankly think its a group of young players that keeps us competitive, but a core young group that 25 teams in the league could claim to have (or better) right now. There is no elite talent in that group as the Islanders, Penguins and Capitals currently have.
Also many of those players will get expensive and who knows if we have more cap casualties like Hagelin. Such bullshit that elite players like Crosby, Ovechkin and Tavares are so underpaid relative to their skillsets. Pittsburgh has made a metric ton of mistakes in recent years but it doesnt matter because their elite players are playing for so cheap.
Aside from bringing in a Stamkos type player to give that core young group a realistic shot at a Cup... I'd feel a lot better about our future if so much of the cap wasnt tied up into Staal and Girardi. HAVE TO get rid of one or both of those guys somehow.
RE: RE: Speaking of Lindberg, what are your opinions on him thus far?
Obviously the pace in which he was scoring earlier in the year was going to slow down, but I think he's going to be a real nice player for us.
This is in part of why I'm confused as to what the plan is for this team going forward. I know that some think that the window may be closing for a cup, especially with how they've played this season, but I think given the number of young players we have, the window could theoretically open back up pretty quickly.
Stepan, Brassard, Lindberg, Fast, Miller, Hayes (if he's still on the team), Buchnevich, Graves, Skjei, McIlrath and some others are a pretty good group going forward. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Nash. That could be the decision that shapes this team for the next 5 years.
It seems like we're putting all of our goal scoring eggs in Buchnevich's basket though. He cannot be a bust.
I frankly think its a group of young players that keeps us competitive, but a core young group that 25 teams in the league could claim to have (or better) right now. There is no elite talent in that group as the Islanders, Penguins and Capitals currently have.
Also many of those players will get expensive and who knows if we have more cap casualties like Hagelin. Such bullshit that elite players like Crosby, Ovechkin and Tavares are so underpaid relative to their skillsets. Pittsburgh has made a metric ton of mistakes in recent years but it doesnt matter because their elite players are playing for so cheap.
Aside from bringing in a Stamkos type player to give that core young group a realistic shot at a Cup... I'd feel a lot better about our future if so much of the cap wasnt tied up into Staal and Girardi. HAVE TO get rid of one or both of those guys somehow.
Amazing how it always comes down to those contracts.. and to give NMC's to both when the contracts themselves are in essence NMC's in the first place. Baffling.
Who is the elite young talent on the Penguins? Or were you just talking about elite talent overall?
Elite talent overall. Crosby and Malkin still have 3-5 prime years left. But they are built to win now too. I still sit here stunned that with all their top heavy contracts they could still afford to bring in Hagelin. But their Defense will soon be up for raises so yeah, chances are they have to deal a Malkin at some point.
CBJ will soon likely have Austin Matthews too, Carolina continues to stockpile lottery picks... its not that our young players are bad or anything ... its just that other organizations have been building good young depth for years. Natural cyclicality of things -- only Detroit seems to know how to avoid that circle of life, and i personally dont even agree with their strategy. I think they're kicking the can down the road.
That AV referred to Gorton and Slats as his "bosses". Further evidence that Slats still has a big hand in some of these mind-boggling decisions.
Gorton must really love this whole set-up. A veteran coach that does things his own way and Sather still meddling in any remotely important decision (usually on gut feel).
I'm a big Nash fan, but I'd look to trade him regardless of what happens this post-season. I doubt we'll get a great return - maybe a first rounder and/or a prospect - but I'd like that space. I'd also look to move both G/Staal. Even moving one of them could create enough maneuverability to go after superior talent.
I'd make these moves with an eye on gunning for Stamkos if he hits FA. The guy's 26 years old this month and is a truly elite talent.
although obtaining Stamkos will not be easy by any stretch.
Given Yandle's mis-use here i do think i'd rather have Shattenkirk than retaining KY anyway. We have Skjei to fill a LD slot next year anyway, and Shattenkirk is i believe 2 or 3 years younger. He's the offensive RD we'll need next year with Boyle leaving.
Would make trading G absolutely imperative.
I'd feel a lot better about next year with opening day:
they've looked pretty damn good in recent weeks. I actually think Pens-Caps would be a really fun playoff series to watch.. i just hope we're playing at the same time too so i can watch without being utterly pissed off.
I like Yandle a ton - but would prefer Shattenkirk. Yandle will be 30 this year and Shattenkirk just turned 27. I think teams should just assume non-elite dmen are cooked at 30-32 from now on, and it's more likely we'd get better tail end years from Shattenkirk than Yandle.
no idea what we have to offer STL for Shattenkirk though
and we'd need him next year, couldnt afford to wait until 2017. Offer them Yandle for KS right now i guess, but StL would understandably want more given the extra cost controlled year for their guy.
in which they've beaten Ottawa, NJ, Vancouver and Philly. Not exactly a murderer's row. In the ten games prior to that, they went 4-2-4. Wouldn't call that "pretty damned good".
considering we are 4-6 against those teams this year
I like Yandle a ton - but would prefer Shattenkirk. Yandle will be 30 this year and Shattenkirk just turned 27. I think teams should just assume non-elite dmen are cooked at 30-32 from now on, and it's more likely we'd get better tail end years from Shattenkirk than Yandle.
I always felt like dmen, even non-elites, tended to age well. Are you drawing this conclusion just from our two guys, or a broader sample. Maybe Staal and DG are outliers. Maybe the conclusion should be that playing hundreds of games in Torts' system as a D shortens careers.
"better than the Rangers" =/= "pretty damned good"
More anecdotal than fact-based - the average age of defensemen that have played 10+ games is <27 years old. I think shot-blocking defensemen are bound to have shorter shelf-lives - look at Andy McDonald with the Flyers. He's 29 and got sent down to the AHL after getting a big deal. And then we've had Wade Redden who came here at 31 but was in decline well beforehand.
I guess I have a bigger issue with the way dollars are allocated. The peak production of a player and the peak dollars allocated to them seldom match. You're usually top-ticking guys given the way FA is set-up.
I think there needs to be more recognition that most guys peak at like 24-25.
Also, there should have been more recognition that Andy McDonald was a bad defenseman. He was a bad defenseman on Long Island. The excuse was always that he was forced to play too many minutes and check top lines, and that he'd do better as a 2nd pair guy. But it was an excuse.
Good thing the Rangers don't have anyone like that.
I guess that's my larger point - guys peak at 24-27. The Alfredsson's of the world are pretty rare and teams should allocate resources as such.
We've had a ton of guys like that upfront- Richards, Drury, Gomez. Outside of Gomez, I've never heard anyone question their work ethic. They just declined.
I think there needs to be more recognition that most guys peak at like 24-25.
Also, there should have been more recognition that Andy McDonald was a bad defenseman. He was a bad defenseman on Long Island. The excuse was always that he was forced to play too many minutes and check top lines, and that he'd do better as a 2nd pair guy. But it was an excuse.
Out of curiosity, did any Isles fans you know ever offer an excuse for AMac? I'd find that strange, since most of us (seemingly) knew he was not particularly good. He was another of Cappy's favorites (for some ungodly reason), and as well light years better than some of the other dreck we trotted out there (Staios, Jurcina, Eaton, Hillen, Mottau...I could go on). But that's kinda like being the world's tallest midget.
Out of curiosity, did any Isles fans you know ever offer an excuse for AMac? I'd find that strange, since most of us (seemingly) knew he was not particularly good. He was another of Cappy's favorites (for some ungodly reason), and as well light years better than some of the other dreck we trotted out there (Staios, Jurcina, Eaton, Hillen, Mottau...I could go on). But that's kinda like being the world's tallest midget.
No. Isles fans knew. Isles fans could not believe the contract Philly gave him. Im talking media commentators.
Also, so there is no confusion, I dont tend to cavort with Islanders fans. Im a family man.
But we're also Mets fans, so the connection is undeniable :)
BTW, to take your comment further, aren't us suburbanite Isles fans usually the family men, since all the monied, single urbanites are the Rangers' demographic?
But we're also Mets fans, so the connection is undeniable :)
BTW, to take your comment further, aren't us suburbanite Isles fans usually the family men, since all the monied, single urbanites are the Rangers' demographic?
I'd always assumed that most Islanders fans are in prison. Hence to shitty attendance at the Coliseum. Islanders fandom is just another in a related line of poor life choices. White Power Randy is relegated to watching on T.V.
as it's been in I don't know how long. They're just running around hoping to get in the way of a bad pass and giving up a multitude of great scoring chances. It really has gone from bad to worse in a short period of time.
start being a bull in a China shop again...hit everything in sight, but do it a bit smarter now. But be f'n aggressive. He's got too much talent to be a JAG.
RE: Kreider needs to be told in no uncertain terms to
start being a bull in a China shop again...hit everything in sight, but do it a bit smarter now. But be f'n aggressive. He's got too much talent to be a JAG.
I would remove the be smart limitation. I'd almost tell him the opposite -- be a bull. If we have to kill some penalties, so be it. Impose yourself. Dont overthink it.
start being a bull in a China shop again...hit everything in sight, but do it a bit smarter now. But be f'n aggressive. He's got too much talent to be a JAG.
Yeah and compared to Hayes he;s been violent. Hayes' hit number is seriosuly embarrassing.
National Hockey League forwards reach their peak scoring performance at age 28 and defencemen peak at age 29, while goaltenders show little change in performance based on age, says a new study that crunched the numbers.
Those are the key findings of a study by the UBC business school that looked at the data from the 14 regular seasons between 1997-98 and 2011-12.
For co-author James Brander, the bottom line of their study is that "the key to winning is having good, young players."
"This study provides a more complete and more accurate assessment of how that works," he added.
The study will be published in the June issue of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Brander's co-authors are Edward Egan and Louisa Yeung. They analyzed peak performance in a number of ways, but the statistics they relied on were regular season points scored and plus-minus for skaters and save percentage for goalies.
Brander's team also found that forwards:
Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin "a significant decline in their early 30s."
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 32 years old.
25 is their most common age, with 24-27 very similar.
Defencemen, the co-authors report:
Improve and decline more slowly than forwards and do so very symmetrically.
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 34 years old (two years longer than forwards).
26 is their most common age, with 25 and 27 very similar.
For goalies, they found that:
Performance varies little by age.
At every age between 20 and 37, their save percentage is between 90 per cent and a tiny fraction over 91 per cent.
28 is their most common age, with 26-29 very similar.
For former hockey superstar Adam Oates, who just wrapped up two seasons as the Washington Capitals coach, "Statistics are important, no question," but he adds, "Right now, everybody is way too involved with analytics."
When it comes to coaching and managing, Oates says, there are many intangibles to take into consideration in addition to player stats. There's the particular style a team plays, leadership on and off the ice, the ability to stay on the same wavelength as one's teammates, the capacity to stay healthy, and so on.
For Oates, at the end of the day, you want a combination of everything and "you want a combination of youth and veterans."
Elite NHLers improve faster, peak longer
James Brander
Brander's study also looked at the NHL's elite players, which would include Oates.
Oates joined the NHL at age 23 and stayed for 19 seasons, playing for six teams. When he retired as a player, his assists total was the fifth highest in NHL history. A centre, his highest points per game seasons were when he was 28 and 30 years old. Oates played until he was 41.
Brander's study found that elite forwards are at their peak performance for scoring from age 27 to 29.
"Elite players improve faster initially, continue to improve for slightly longer and experience slower age-related decline," according to Brander. "They do not experience a major drop-off in performance until their late 30s."
Elite defencemen hit their scoring peak from 29 to 33.
Plus-minus a key metric for forwards
For forwards especially, another key metric that Brander analyzed was players' plus-minus number. In the NHL, plus-minus for a player compares the number of goals scored by his team when he's on the ice versus the goals scored by his opponents.
NHL forwards are at peak performance for this metric from age 23 to 25 and 23 to 30 for elite forwards. As the graph below shows, on average, forwards have a negative plus-minus until they are 22, positive from 23 to 29 and then it turns negative again in their 30s.
Brander also notes that "forwards who do not develop into consistent scorers by age 23 or 24 in most cases never will."
Why players peak when they do
What Brander and his team found for hockey corresponds to research on how physiology and intelligence relate to developing basic sports skills. "Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s," but "endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later in the late 20s or early 30s."
Adam Oates
Adam Oates says that in the 2003 playoffs, when he was with the Anaheim Ducks, scoring a goal on his first shift of the first game of the playoffs 'mattered because I didn't want to be the old man that broke down in the playoffs.' Because he had had something good happen to him early, Oates says it freed him up mentally and he had a great playoffs. 'And that kind of stuff matters.' (Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press)
Those skills are all critical for hockey. Oates excelled at playmaking, which requires "a high level of physical co-ordination and an understanding of patterns as they develop in the game," according to Brander.
Brander says that may also be why defencemen peak slightly later than forwards, because they "rely more on pattern recognition and anticipation which improve with experience to play a good positional game and to make good passes."
Experience and wear and tear are also critical for NHL players. "As players become more experienced their positional play improves and their ability to anticipate improves, implying improvement with age. But wear and tear works in the opposite direction," Brander writes.
Oates notes that today, "It's a lot easier for an older guy to train than it used to be, to maintain conditioning."
He told CBC News that during his later seasons he thought it was great to play on the same team as a bunch of 20-somethings. "It kept me feeling younger, it really did."
The performance of older elite players depends on their status and what they want to accomplish. As an example, Oates pointed to 43-year-old Teemu Selanne, another NHL superstar, now with the Anaheim Ducks.
Interviewed before the Ducks were eliminated from the playoffs on Friday night, Oates said "Selanne is obviously looking for something different, and he's in a way different place in his life than he was, say, five years ago, because he kind of knows this is it and he's enjoying it, whereas five years ago he might have been thinking about money and playing longer, he might have been thinking about [how much ice time he gets]."
What about the playoffs?
Brander's study looked at regular season stats, but the NHL playoffs are into the semi-finals. He plans to look at playoff numbers in a future study, but says they were left out of this one because the playoffs are different from the regular season. He expects "experience matters more in the playoffs in almost all sports" and a new study will test that hypothesis.
The playoffs have what some statisticians call the hot goaltender effect. Oates says in the playoffs a team should expect to face a hot goaltender in two out of the four series, if it goes all the way to the finals.
Brander told CBC News that "the playoffs are hard to predict based on systematic factors like age," but "if you look at the age profile and take account of both age and experience, just on paper a team like Chicago looks good."
The UBC professor did add that, as a Canadian, he's rooting for Montreal.
Oates said that other things matter more in the playoffs. For example, "You want to always, somehow, have a spark to your team." For the New York Rangers that spark was how the team rallied around veteran Martin St. Louis, whose mother died during the series against Pittsburgh.
The Rangers came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the favourite Penguins and then won game one against Montreal in the semi-finals, in which St. Louis scored the first goal
I had seen analysis like at the link below, that forwards point production peaks at 24-25 (depending on if you're measuring per game or minute). Link - ( New Window )
I had seen analysis like at the link below, that forwards point production peaks at 24-25 (depending on if you're measuring per game or minute). Link - ( New Window )
I read the study at the time it came out and had a few issues with it, such as the use of plus/minus as an evaluation tool. I also think that the game has changed significantly over the course of the sample size used in the study (I think it was 14 years and that the game has gotten increasingly commoditized - I'd point to the collapsing point totals of the leaders and the rising SV% of goaltenders as evidence of this.
The article also does a disservice to the study (which is almost always the case) - they offered an alternative explanation of player participation that lowered the 'peak age' using the modal age (and the mean is pretty close to the modal age, IIRC - maybe a year higher) that has it closer to 26-27. I'd argue that the method used that's cited in the article can't adjust for survivorship bias, which the study also points out.
tl;dr: Davisian is partially correct (and the study partially discusses that as well). And I think teams will always have difficulty properly judging peaks/declines. How dumb would a team have felt letting Alfredsson go before his explosion at 33?
I think the Rangers have played better in recent weeks despite somewhat underwhelming results - if they go on a streak and win, say, eight of ten prior to the deadline and look good doing so, would you retain Yandle and make a run for it or trade him for (theoretically) a first/prospect?
they should keep Yandle barring a trade that sends us back a Shattenkirk type.
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
they should keep Yandle barring a trade that sends us back a Shattenkirk type.
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
RE: That McDavid goal they just showed on MSG was pretty.
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
I wouldnt. They are 23-28, will not make the playoffs, and 1-8-1 in their last 10.
Hey - a win is a win and we're playing without arguably our best offensive player and arguably our best defensive player right now. I will take it - but the schedule gets very tough starting in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. We'll see what we're made of soon enough.
Pittsburgh, who you have been obsessed with fluffing for a long time, is 25-24 and is currently sitting outside of a playoff position.
Not saying Minnesota is a strong opponent, but dismissing them completely while saying the schedule gets much tougher when they go to Pittsburgh is kind of excessive.
battling with Nashville and Arizona for that final slot that none of them seems interested in taking.
Dubnyk played out of his mind last year - it wasnt sustainable. They dont have nearly enough scoring in that lineup to compete in the toughest division in hockey.
teams i've seen in some time. Will some teams give them a run come playoff time, of course - the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win in pro sports.. the Hawks and Kings were both tested to their limits in recent years too.
If they play a Boston or NJ or Philly in round 1, they'll smoke them. Pittsburgh has enough pieces to be a dangerous first round opponent unlike those other teams.
I mean the other shoe has to drop for the Caps eventually right?
is probably facing Florida/Tampa as a 7 seed anyway though. Unless Montreal gets Price back soon and that doesnt look likely - i dont see a 4th good team in the Atlantic. Definitely the weakest division in hockey this year. Florida is a good young team, but they are making last year's Islanders run against back-up goalies look like child's play.
but you should look at teams on a PPG basis. In the East Pittsburgh is in replacing NJ as the 7. In the West, Colorado is out, Dallas is actually leading the Central (so STL gets CHI yet again) and Minnesota is in by a threadhair at Dallas.
The East I agree isnt great, but i do think 4 of the 5 or 6 best teams are in the Metro. The Metro is also a deep division - aside from CBJ who should be better than this, there arent terrible teams as you see in the Atlantic.
Its probably a good year to take 4th place in the Metro and take your chances in the first two rounds with the Florida teams. Who knows if Stamkos will even still be on Tampa at that point, though I would think he would be.
the West probably gets a little too much respect by the way
maybe the Kings Hawks and Stars are the best teams in hockey, i dont know, but their wild card teams are currently playing at 1.07-1.08 PPG pace.
In the East the wild card teams are at 1.16 and 1.14 respectively. Philly and NJ would be the wild card teams (1.12 and 1.10 respectively) in the West.
Anaheim and San Jose would be wild card teams in the east - in the West they occupy #2 and #3 in their division.
It's not as deep as the last two years -- which was my biggest complaint about having uneven conferences. Winnipeg, Minnesota, Vancouver and Calgary have all been big busts this year.
Interesting changes. I think Pittsburgh would likely beat the Panthers and then beat the winner of TB/BOS.
As for the West, I don't watch a lot of San Jose/Los Angeles/Anaheim games so I always look forward to watching those teams in the playoffs. I can't speak for the quality of those teams this year other than their record and watching highlights, but it always seems that Chicago plays in a great first round series that propels them towards the Cup. Wouldn't mind seeing CHI/STL again at all.
MIN/DAL would also be a good series. Lots of good players on the ice.
My buddy just sent me this article..
Quote:
The first-year GM is on the spot. It wont be easy for Gorton who has no track record to resist quick-fix options that are sure to present themselves. Winnipeg has been scouting the Rangers for a while, and yes indeed, Andrew Ladd would sure look good wearing the Blueshirt for the stretch run and into the playoffs.
Surely the Jets would be willing to take some combination of J.T. Miller, Pavel Buchnevich, a first-rounder and Dylan McIlrath off Broadway in return for the high-end rental property.
Um..?
Just as an aside, just realized this yesterday sitting at MSG...an absolute insane few months of sports coming up.
March - Big FA period for the Giants, and of course, the NCAA Tournament.
April - May - Playoff hockey..nothing better. Baseball coming back almost cancels that out though. NBA playoffs too but who really cares. Also the NFL Draft.
This Summer you have the Euro Cup and the Olympics, along with the usual tennis/golf tourneys.
Finally, followed by the Preseason, the World Cup of Hockey, and by the time we know it, the NFL/NHL regular seasons are back.
But as a 30 year old rental, there is absolutely no way on earth I'd ever give up that much for him, particularly since Miller is outscoring him this year.
Nash's spot next year. Fuck it - nothing to lose. Lets see what he can do with the opportunity - we have to get him over here next year. Just wish he was here this year.
The Rangers have been high on Ladd since his draft year.
Not only the production, but his physicality and other aspects to his game. I really hope we dont firesale the guy this offseason (or dump him+ for Ladd), but i cant pencil him in for a top 6 role at this time. He'll need to earn that.
Meanwhile you didnt include Stepan or Brassard but those guys are still really young too.
If we could just dump G and/or Staal i'd feel a lot better about our next 5 years.
Going to be 29 next season. Brassard will be as well. Good point on Stepan.
I think the concerns over Hayes is overblown. I was cautious regarding a sophomore slump and think the physicality stuff is pretty much nonsense. His most common linemate last year was Hagelin, who helped him quite a bit (especially in the defensive zone).
Check out the article below. I think it makes a good case that Hayes is largely getting unlucky. Blueseat Blogs - ( New Window )
good enlightening article though it doesnt address defense or physicality. I do hope we keep him as mentioned above.
As far as "vitriol" towards the guy as mentioned in the article - well a lot of this is coming after scathing words from AV last month. Perhaps the organization and its idiot coach should be supporting this kid, not throwing him under a bus.
It's just like what people used to bitch about with Boyle. If you're a huge finesse player, some people will give you shit regardless of how you're playing. Boyle wasn't physical, but he was a terrific defensive center and penalty killer. The problem with Hayes is that his production has plummeted. He wasn't any more physical last year, but no one was complaining then.
Trading Duclair was massively dumb, and we're going to regret it for a long time.
MAB, I thought that was a bit of a strawman. I haven't seen anyone advocate for him being traded, and there's a ton of reasons to be frustrated on this team - a guy who many anticipated to take the next step logically could be one of them. The substance of the article was good, however.
The last time Joe Thornton hit as much as Hayes did last year was 2010-2011. He isn't a physical player. Hayes obviously isn't nearly as skilled, but he could hopefully be a 60-70 point player in his prime.
To be fair, I think things like grit and physicality are generally overrated by fans, so I could be overly discounting them.
And regarding defense - he is absolutely lazy in the defensive zone sometimes. But highly skilled young players typically suck in the defensive zone because they're so used to controlling the puck in the lower levels - or they just won board battles based on superior athleticism/skill. I expect him to improve there over time.
I also don't know why Stepan largely escapes criticism
but he's taken so many stupid back-breaking penalties this year too.
But a) I've got a soft spot for "SE" and i think he'll turn it around, and b) I do think he came back too early from his injury sustained in Boston and that's played a part.
Steps is still a young kid but he's had some nasty injuries the last couple of years - broken femur, broken jaw, broken ribs - hopefully not taking their toll.
n Kevin Kleins world, indefinitely means one game.
The defenseman said he was going to play Saturday in Philadelphia after missing just one game with a fractured right thumb suffered against the Devils on Tuesday.
I'm lookin forward to your responses but that article is a beautiful thing. Written by this Dave SHapiro guy who always pops up on Twitter saying things that are just ridiculous sometimes....Is this one of you guys here on BBI???
This article is one of the most perfect specimens of why perhaps some of you and I won't really agree on anything. Ever. I just read a whole article where none of it had to do with watching hockey and everything to do with some numbers that he used to try and create an image of something he wanted to say.
I don't know what the random numbers say, I just know I've watched the Rangers play every game and you can see when Kevin Hayes is playing well and when he's not and it's easy because he mostly is playing awfully and when he plays well you really notice.
I can use stats too. For instance, he has one goal in a month. But he also has 2 goals since 11/23. And the goal in November was the 3rd goal in a 3-0 win, on the PP with less than half the period left. 5 goals since October 22nd. So thats about a goal a month or so. And not exactly game changing, impact goals....
Another obvious one is that he loses 7 of 10 faceoffs every game. And the other obvious stat is that he has 34 hits. Just the raw number means that a guy who plays 14 minutes a game and has played in 49 games means that he doesn't bother throwing a check in every game. Why bother? If you want to go a little more detailed though, he has 34 hits and Tanner Glass has 104. Mats Zuke has 50+ and he is a midget who actually scores and uses his skills while playing at least 90% effort every game. And no I don't have a number for that, I just watc.
The reason to me why the hits stat matters is because its the ultimate way to show that his game is lacking the overall impact that it should and it is one of the ways to show that there is not enough physical play and effort to play in the offensive zone. One more stat to throw in is that while the Whipping Boy starts 60% of the game in the defensive end, Hayes starts 66% of his shifts in the offensive end. SO he's losing his faceoffs, not hitting anyone so the puck stays in the corners or on the boards, and not scoring any goals.
He's a great example of a player who you can look at these numbers and think, "oh he's not bad" but if you watch him, he simply doesn't impact the game at all. Last year he had 17 goals and 45 points but it was an impact game. He played a game that affected opponents and was great for a rookie. He's not a physical maniac but when you can use your body to go to the net and make plays and cause problems for their team by being a third liner playing above that line, it's a big deal for a team lacking it. Then this year he is the opposite of that. He is passive. He is neither scoring nor making a difference in the games. He is 6'5" 225 and he plays softer than Brian Boyle who was called soft everyday. So no Kevin Hayes is not awful but he is not good this year. And the thing is, he came into the league after college and made an immediate impact but also got BETTER as the season went on. You thought he would get bettter and better and then start to make use of his combo of size and skill to be a power forward that teams didn't want to play. What's it matter if you're big if you play like you are invisible? He has played a couple decent games recently. We'll see. He can make such a massive difference. That's whats most frustrating. If you wanted to see a team that was similar to last year, you wanted to see Hayes be a player who became someone who makes teams better.
Pointing to goals and ignoring his unlucky shooting percentage (the same stat you mocked when people pointed to when discussing the sustainability of the Rangers early season play) is silly.
He's not nearly the skater Brassard is. I mentioned last season, the difference (besides position) between Oscar Lindberg and Danny Kristo making it to the NHL is likely skating. Lindberg glides and creates chances. IMO, Stepan is not an elite skater and doesn't have that elite attribute to make up for it. Not an sharp shooter, tremendous play maker or skater. He's better than average at everything but i don't see him as somebody you can rely on for a growing point production year after year.
Pointing to goals and ignoring his unlucky shooting percentage (the same stat you mocked when people pointed to when discussing the sustainability of the Rangers early season play) is silly.
The hit stuff is just nonsense.
i never mocked shooting percentage. I said the opposite. I said shooting % is more important than amount of shots. I said the puck going in is more important than how many times you shoot it towards the net. I said goals are more important than shots.
Sather is in the stands watching with Gorton and AV which is not a daily occurance per Zipay. Maybe a trade brewing?
@PLeonardNYDN
Power plays: Yandle-Brassard-Zucc-Stepan-Kreider. 2nd unit: McD-Boyle-Megna-Miller-Hayes #NYR
McIlrath is definitely playing #NYR
I'll be at the game tonight. Looking very much forward to that basket of chicken tenders and that killer honey mustard.
Just noticed that and trying to think who else they could put there?
Fast? I must be missing someone..
he has better PP metrics this year than Hayes Kreider and Miller. But its more about believing Megna absolutely sucks at hockey and has no business being called up over better Hartford players than anything else.
As bad a year as Nash has had, his loss really hurts. We are thin up front -- in large part because for some reason they felt the need to dump Etem for peanuts.
This is in part of why I'm confused as to what the plan is for this team going forward. I know that some think that the window may be closing for a cup, especially with how they've played this season, but I think given the number of young players we have, the window could theoretically open back up pretty quickly.
Stepan, Brassard, Lindberg, Fast, Miller, Hayes (if he's still on the team), Buchnevich, Graves, Skjei, McIlrath and some others are a pretty good group going forward. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Nash. That could be the decision that shapes this team for the next 5 years.
It seems like we're putting all of our goal scoring eggs in Buchnevich's basket though. He cannot be a bust.
Agree with this. McIlrath has shown to have a pretty hard and accurate shot from the point.
This is in part of why I'm confused as to what the plan is for this team going forward. I know that some think that the window may be closing for a cup, especially with how they've played this season, but I think given the number of young players we have, the window could theoretically open back up pretty quickly.
Stepan, Brassard, Lindberg, Fast, Miller, Hayes (if he's still on the team), Buchnevich, Graves, Skjei, McIlrath and some others are a pretty good group going forward. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Nash. That could be the decision that shapes this team for the next 5 years.
It seems like we're putting all of our goal scoring eggs in Buchnevich's basket though. He cannot be a bust.
I frankly think its a group of young players that keeps us competitive, but a core young group that 25 teams in the league could claim to have (or better) right now. There is no elite talent in that group as the Islanders, Penguins and Capitals currently have.
Also many of those players will get expensive and who knows if we have more cap casualties like Hagelin. Such bullshit that elite players like Crosby, Ovechkin and Tavares are so underpaid relative to their skillsets. Pittsburgh has made a metric ton of mistakes in recent years but it doesnt matter because their elite players are playing for so cheap.
Aside from bringing in a Stamkos type player to give that core young group a realistic shot at a Cup... I'd feel a lot better about our future if so much of the cap wasnt tied up into Staal and Girardi. HAVE TO get rid of one or both of those guys somehow.
Quote:
Obviously the pace in which he was scoring earlier in the year was going to slow down, but I think he's going to be a real nice player for us.
This is in part of why I'm confused as to what the plan is for this team going forward. I know that some think that the window may be closing for a cup, especially with how they've played this season, but I think given the number of young players we have, the window could theoretically open back up pretty quickly.
Stepan, Brassard, Lindberg, Fast, Miller, Hayes (if he's still on the team), Buchnevich, Graves, Skjei, McIlrath and some others are a pretty good group going forward. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Nash. That could be the decision that shapes this team for the next 5 years.
It seems like we're putting all of our goal scoring eggs in Buchnevich's basket though. He cannot be a bust.
I frankly think its a group of young players that keeps us competitive, but a core young group that 25 teams in the league could claim to have (or better) right now. There is no elite talent in that group as the Islanders, Penguins and Capitals currently have.
Also many of those players will get expensive and who knows if we have more cap casualties like Hagelin. Such bullshit that elite players like Crosby, Ovechkin and Tavares are so underpaid relative to their skillsets. Pittsburgh has made a metric ton of mistakes in recent years but it doesnt matter because their elite players are playing for so cheap.
Aside from bringing in a Stamkos type player to give that core young group a realistic shot at a Cup... I'd feel a lot better about our future if so much of the cap wasnt tied up into Staal and Girardi. HAVE TO get rid of one or both of those guys somehow.
Amazing how it always comes down to those contracts.. and to give NMC's to both when the contracts themselves are in essence NMC's in the first place. Baffling.
Elite talent overall. Crosby and Malkin still have 3-5 prime years left. But they are built to win now too. I still sit here stunned that with all their top heavy contracts they could still afford to bring in Hagelin. But their Defense will soon be up for raises so yeah, chances are they have to deal a Malkin at some point.
CBJ will soon likely have Austin Matthews too, Carolina continues to stockpile lottery picks... its not that our young players are bad or anything ... its just that other organizations have been building good young depth for years. Natural cyclicality of things -- only Detroit seems to know how to avoid that circle of life, and i personally dont even agree with their strategy. I think they're kicking the can down the road.
Gorton must really love this whole set-up. A veteran coach that does things his own way and Sather still meddling in any remotely important decision (usually on gut feel).
I'd make these moves with an eye on gunning for Stamkos if he hits FA. The guy's 26 years old this month and is a truly elite talent.
Given Yandle's mis-use here i do think i'd rather have Shattenkirk than retaining KY anyway. We have Skjei to fill a LD slot next year anyway, and Shattenkirk is i believe 2 or 3 years younger. He's the offensive RD we'll need next year with Boyle leaving.
Would make trading G absolutely imperative.
Shattenkirk-Skjei
McIlraith-Staal
...and Nash swapped for a younger equally talented player up front
That team only turning Mario-Jagr and Sid-Geno into 3 cups is epic fail, IMO.
I'm going to see them down here on Saturday - might have to buy a Panthers jersey for that one. My hatred for Pittsburgh runs deep.
I always felt like dmen, even non-elites, tended to age well. Are you drawing this conclusion just from our two guys, or a broader sample. Maybe Staal and DG are outliers. Maybe the conclusion should be that playing hundreds of games in Torts' system as a D shortens careers.
Also, there should have been more recognition that Andy McDonald was a bad defenseman. He was a bad defenseman on Long Island. The excuse was always that he was forced to play too many minutes and check top lines, and that he'd do better as a 2nd pair guy. But it was an excuse.
We've had a ton of guys like that upfront- Richards, Drury, Gomez. Outside of Gomez, I've never heard anyone question their work ethic. They just declined.
Translation: Brett talking out his ass yet again.
by the way, noticed Arc joins in on Mets threads these days but done with the Rangers. Cap casualty or does he just hate Brett and deej?
Also, there should have been more recognition that Andy McDonald was a bad defenseman. He was a bad defenseman on Long Island. The excuse was always that he was forced to play too many minutes and check top lines, and that he'd do better as a 2nd pair guy. But it was an excuse.
Quote:
More anecdotal than fact-based
Translation: Brett talking out his ass yet again.
by the way, noticed Arc joins in on Mets threads these days but done with the Rangers. Cap casualty or does he just hate Brett and deej?
He got old and decided to like boring 'sports' like baseball.
No. Isles fans knew. Isles fans could not believe the contract Philly gave him. Im talking media commentators.
Also, so there is no confusion, I dont tend to cavort with Islanders fans. Im a family man.
BTW, to take your comment further, aren't us suburbanite Isles fans usually the family men, since all the monied, single urbanites are the Rangers' demographic?
Quote:
More anecdotal than fact-based
Translation: Brett talking out his ass yet again.
by the way, noticed Arc joins in on Mets threads these days but done with the Rangers. Cap casualty or does he just hate Brett and deej?
Haha, arc was our Hagelin. Cap casualty
BTW, to take your comment further, aren't us suburbanite Isles fans usually the family men, since all the monied, single urbanites are the Rangers' demographic?
I'd always assumed that most Islanders fans are in prison. Hence to shitty attendance at the Coliseum. Islanders fandom is just another in a related line of poor life choices. White Power Randy is relegated to watching on T.V.
What are the odds Stoll comes up with a big goal tonight?
And of course Hank can't stop the breakaway ...here we go.
Now the dreaded 3rd period - we really need to jettison these demons
I would remove the be smart limitation. I'd almost tell him the opposite -- be a bull. If we have to kill some penalties, so be it. Impose yourself. Dont overthink it.
Yeah and compared to Hayes he;s been violent. Hayes' hit number is seriosuly embarrassing.
and there he is!!!! KREIDS. BOOOM
Those are the key findings of a study by the UBC business school that looked at the data from the 14 regular seasons between 1997-98 and 2011-12.
For co-author James Brander, the bottom line of their study is that "the key to winning is having good, young players."
"This study provides a more complete and more accurate assessment of how that works," he added.
The study will be published in the June issue of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Brander's co-authors are Edward Egan and Louisa Yeung. They analyzed peak performance in a number of ways, but the statistics they relied on were regular season points scored and plus-minus for skaters and save percentage for goalies.
Brander's team also found that forwards:
Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin "a significant decline in their early 30s."
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 32 years old.
25 is their most common age, with 24-27 very similar.
Defencemen, the co-authors report:
Improve and decline more slowly than forwards and do so very symmetrically.
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 34 years old (two years longer than forwards).
26 is their most common age, with 25 and 27 very similar.
For goalies, they found that:
Performance varies little by age.
At every age between 20 and 37, their save percentage is between 90 per cent and a tiny fraction over 91 per cent.
28 is their most common age, with 26-29 very similar.
For former hockey superstar Adam Oates, who just wrapped up two seasons as the Washington Capitals coach, "Statistics are important, no question," but he adds, "Right now, everybody is way too involved with analytics."
When it comes to coaching and managing, Oates says, there are many intangibles to take into consideration in addition to player stats. There's the particular style a team plays, leadership on and off the ice, the ability to stay on the same wavelength as one's teammates, the capacity to stay healthy, and so on.
For Oates, at the end of the day, you want a combination of everything and "you want a combination of youth and veterans."
Elite NHLers improve faster, peak longer
James Brander
Brander's study also looked at the NHL's elite players, which would include Oates.
Oates joined the NHL at age 23 and stayed for 19 seasons, playing for six teams. When he retired as a player, his assists total was the fifth highest in NHL history. A centre, his highest points per game seasons were when he was 28 and 30 years old. Oates played until he was 41.
Brander's study found that elite forwards are at their peak performance for scoring from age 27 to 29.
"Elite players improve faster initially, continue to improve for slightly longer and experience slower age-related decline," according to Brander. "They do not experience a major drop-off in performance until their late 30s."
Elite defencemen hit their scoring peak from 29 to 33.
Plus-minus a key metric for forwards
For forwards especially, another key metric that Brander analyzed was players' plus-minus number. In the NHL, plus-minus for a player compares the number of goals scored by his team when he's on the ice versus the goals scored by his opponents.
NHL forwards are at peak performance for this metric from age 23 to 25 and 23 to 30 for elite forwards. As the graph below shows, on average, forwards have a negative plus-minus until they are 22, positive from 23 to 29 and then it turns negative again in their 30s.
Brander also notes that "forwards who do not develop into consistent scorers by age 23 or 24 in most cases never will."
Why players peak when they do
What Brander and his team found for hockey corresponds to research on how physiology and intelligence relate to developing basic sports skills. "Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s," but "endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later in the late 20s or early 30s."
Adam Oates
Adam Oates says that in the 2003 playoffs, when he was with the Anaheim Ducks, scoring a goal on his first shift of the first game of the playoffs 'mattered because I didn't want to be the old man that broke down in the playoffs.' Because he had had something good happen to him early, Oates says it freed him up mentally and he had a great playoffs. 'And that kind of stuff matters.' (Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press)
Those skills are all critical for hockey. Oates excelled at playmaking, which requires "a high level of physical co-ordination and an understanding of patterns as they develop in the game," according to Brander.
Brander says that may also be why defencemen peak slightly later than forwards, because they "rely more on pattern recognition and anticipation which improve with experience to play a good positional game and to make good passes."
Experience and wear and tear are also critical for NHL players. "As players become more experienced their positional play improves and their ability to anticipate improves, implying improvement with age. But wear and tear works in the opposite direction," Brander writes.
Oates notes that today, "It's a lot easier for an older guy to train than it used to be, to maintain conditioning."
He told CBC News that during his later seasons he thought it was great to play on the same team as a bunch of 20-somethings. "It kept me feeling younger, it really did."
The performance of older elite players depends on their status and what they want to accomplish. As an example, Oates pointed to 43-year-old Teemu Selanne, another NHL superstar, now with the Anaheim Ducks.
Interviewed before the Ducks were eliminated from the playoffs on Friday night, Oates said "Selanne is obviously looking for something different, and he's in a way different place in his life than he was, say, five years ago, because he kind of knows this is it and he's enjoying it, whereas five years ago he might have been thinking about money and playing longer, he might have been thinking about [how much ice time he gets]."
What about the playoffs?
Brander's study looked at regular season stats, but the NHL playoffs are into the semi-finals. He plans to look at playoff numbers in a future study, but says they were left out of this one because the playoffs are different from the regular season. He expects "experience matters more in the playoffs in almost all sports" and a new study will test that hypothesis.
The playoffs have what some statisticians call the hot goaltender effect. Oates says in the playoffs a team should expect to face a hot goaltender in two out of the four series, if it goes all the way to the finals.
Brander told CBC News that "the playoffs are hard to predict based on systematic factors like age," but "if you look at the age profile and take account of both age and experience, just on paper a team like Chicago looks good."
The UBC professor did add that, as a Canadian, he's rooting for Montreal.
Oates said that other things matter more in the playoffs. For example, "You want to always, somehow, have a spark to your team." For the New York Rangers that spark was how the team rallied around veteran Martin St. Louis, whose mother died during the series against Pittsburgh.
The Rangers came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the favourite Penguins and then won game one against Montreal in the semi-finals, in which St. Louis scored the first goal
Peak - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
Fuck that! I want to still be in my prime!
Peak performance (seth) vs peak production (deej).
Very different things.
"we aren't winning because we are missing the key ingredient: old, bad players"
but no look check it out:
For co-author James Brander, the bottom line of their study is that "the key to winning is having good, young players."
The article also does a disservice to the study (which is almost always the case) - they offered an alternative explanation of player participation that lowered the 'peak age' using the modal age (and the mean is pretty close to the modal age, IIRC - maybe a year higher) that has it closer to 26-27. I'd argue that the method used that's cited in the article can't adjust for survivorship bias, which the study also points out.
tl;dr: Davisian is partially correct (and the study partially discusses that as well). And I think teams will always have difficulty properly judging peaks/declines. How dumb would a team have felt letting Alfredsson go before his explosion at 33?
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
Edmonton would hold out for the addition of Marcus Kuhn.
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
I wouldnt. They are 23-28, will not make the playoffs, and 1-8-1 in their last 10.
Hey - a win is a win and we're playing without arguably our best offensive player and arguably our best defensive player right now. I will take it - but the schedule gets very tough starting in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. We'll see what we're made of soon enough.
Kinda shocked by that. Dubnyk must be struggling.
Not saying Minnesota is a strong opponent, but dismissing them completely while saying the schedule gets much tougher when they go to Pittsburgh is kind of excessive.
Dubnyk played out of his mind last year - it wasnt sustainable. They dont have nearly enough scoring in that lineup to compete in the toughest division in hockey.
Fuck Tony.
If they play a Boston or NJ or Philly in round 1, they'll smoke them. Pittsburgh has enough pieces to be a dangerous first round opponent unlike those other teams.
I mean, they have 5 losses in regulation when Holtby starts. It's February.
Tampa Bay would play Boston
Rangers would play the Islanders
Caps would play Detroit
Chicago would play Nashville again
Dallas would play St Louis
Los Angeles would play Colorado
San Jose would play Anaheim
First thing that jumps out at me is how good the 1st round matchups are in the West. Lots of late nights there. Every series is great.
The East is weak. I think Detroit would give the Caps a scare. Not sure I would want to play the Isles.
Anaheim has bounced back nicely from their awful start.
The East I agree isnt great, but i do think 4 of the 5 or 6 best teams are in the Metro. The Metro is also a deep division - aside from CBJ who should be better than this, there arent terrible teams as you see in the Atlantic.
Its probably a good year to take 4th place in the Metro and take your chances in the first two rounds with the Florida teams. Who knows if Stamkos will even still be on Tampa at that point, though I would think he would be.
In the East the wild card teams are at 1.16 and 1.14 respectively. Philly and NJ would be the wild card teams (1.12 and 1.10 respectively) in the West.
Anaheim and San Jose would be wild card teams in the east - in the West they occupy #2 and #3 in their division.
It's not as deep as the last two years -- which was my biggest complaint about having uneven conferences. Winnipeg, Minnesota, Vancouver and Calgary have all been big busts this year.
As for the West, I don't watch a lot of San Jose/Los Angeles/Anaheim games so I always look forward to watching those teams in the playoffs. I can't speak for the quality of those teams this year other than their record and watching highlights, but it always seems that Chicago plays in a great first round series that propels them towards the Cup. Wouldn't mind seeing CHI/STL again at all.
MIN/DAL would also be a good series. Lots of good players on the ice.
My buddy just sent me this article..
Surely the Jets would be willing to take some combination of J.T. Miller, Pavel Buchnevich, a first-rounder and Dylan McIlrath off Broadway in return for the high-end rental property.
Um..?
Just as an aside, just realized this yesterday sitting at MSG...an absolute insane few months of sports coming up.
March - Big FA period for the Giants, and of course, the NCAA Tournament.
April - May - Playoff hockey..nothing better. Baseball coming back almost cancels that out though. NBA playoffs too but who really cares. Also the NFL Draft.
This Summer you have the Euro Cup and the Olympics, along with the usual tennis/golf tourneys.
Finally, followed by the Preseason, the World Cup of Hockey, and by the time we know it, the NFL/NHL regular seasons are back.
I do prefer Glass to Megna.
Of course, I'd love to never see either of them on the ice again.
The media apparently hasnt gotten the memo that forwards peak in their mid-20s. They love the shiny.
I really wish we had Duclair and Buchnevich next year.
Hayes, Buch, Duclair, Miller, Zucc and Kreider in the top six would have been a nice young core to build around. Oh well.
Meanwhile you didnt include Stepan or Brassard but those guys are still really young too.
If we could just dump G and/or Staal i'd feel a lot better about our next 5 years.
I think the concerns over Hayes is overblown. I was cautious regarding a sophomore slump and think the physicality stuff is pretty much nonsense. His most common linemate last year was Hagelin, who helped him quite a bit (especially in the defensive zone).
Check out the article below. I think it makes a good case that Hayes is largely getting unlucky.
Blueseat Blogs - ( New Window )
As far as "vitriol" towards the guy as mentioned in the article - well a lot of this is coming after scathing words from AV last month. Perhaps the organization and its idiot coach should be supporting this kid, not throwing him under a bus.
Trading Duclair was massively dumb, and we're going to regret it for a long time.
The last time Joe Thornton hit as much as Hayes did last year was 2010-2011. He isn't a physical player. Hayes obviously isn't nearly as skilled, but he could hopefully be a 60-70 point player in his prime.
To be fair, I think things like grit and physicality are generally overrated by fans, so I could be overly discounting them.
I was talking about that with a friend last night. He's been atrocious. Guy's making me look like an idiot for defending his contract this off-season.
Fucking Badgers...
But a) I've got a soft spot for "SE" and i think he'll turn it around, and b) I do think he came back too early from his injury sustained in Boston and that's played a part.
Steps is still a young kid but he's had some nasty injuries the last couple of years - broken femur, broken jaw, broken ribs - hopefully not taking their toll.
The defenseman said he was going to play Saturday in Philadelphia after missing just one game with a fractured right thumb suffered against the Devils on Tuesday.
I'm lookin forward to your responses but that article is a beautiful thing. Written by this Dave SHapiro guy who always pops up on Twitter saying things that are just ridiculous sometimes....Is this one of you guys here on BBI???
This article is one of the most perfect specimens of why perhaps some of you and I won't really agree on anything. Ever. I just read a whole article where none of it had to do with watching hockey and everything to do with some numbers that he used to try and create an image of something he wanted to say.
I don't know what the random numbers say, I just know I've watched the Rangers play every game and you can see when Kevin Hayes is playing well and when he's not and it's easy because he mostly is playing awfully and when he plays well you really notice.
I can use stats too. For instance, he has one goal in a month. But he also has 2 goals since 11/23. And the goal in November was the 3rd goal in a 3-0 win, on the PP with less than half the period left. 5 goals since October 22nd. So thats about a goal a month or so. And not exactly game changing, impact goals....
Another obvious one is that he loses 7 of 10 faceoffs every game. And the other obvious stat is that he has 34 hits. Just the raw number means that a guy who plays 14 minutes a game and has played in 49 games means that he doesn't bother throwing a check in every game. Why bother? If you want to go a little more detailed though, he has 34 hits and Tanner Glass has 104. Mats Zuke has 50+ and he is a midget who actually scores and uses his skills while playing at least 90% effort every game. And no I don't have a number for that, I just watc.
The reason to me why the hits stat matters is because its the ultimate way to show that his game is lacking the overall impact that it should and it is one of the ways to show that there is not enough physical play and effort to play in the offensive zone. One more stat to throw in is that while the Whipping Boy starts 60% of the game in the defensive end, Hayes starts 66% of his shifts in the offensive end. SO he's losing his faceoffs, not hitting anyone so the puck stays in the corners or on the boards, and not scoring any goals.
He's a great example of a player who you can look at these numbers and think, "oh he's not bad" but if you watch him, he simply doesn't impact the game at all. Last year he had 17 goals and 45 points but it was an impact game. He played a game that affected opponents and was great for a rookie. He's not a physical maniac but when you can use your body to go to the net and make plays and cause problems for their team by being a third liner playing above that line, it's a big deal for a team lacking it. Then this year he is the opposite of that. He is passive. He is neither scoring nor making a difference in the games. He is 6'5" 225 and he plays softer than Brian Boyle who was called soft everyday. So no Kevin Hayes is not awful but he is not good this year. And the thing is, he came into the league after college and made an immediate impact but also got BETTER as the season went on. You thought he would get bettter and better and then start to make use of his combo of size and skill to be a power forward that teams didn't want to play. What's it matter if you're big if you play like you are invisible? He has played a couple decent games recently. We'll see. He can make such a massive difference. That's whats most frustrating. If you wanted to see a team that was similar to last year, you wanted to see Hayes be a player who became someone who makes teams better.
The hit stuff is just nonsense.
Ovechkin is ranked 19th in hits so far this season.
He's not nearly the skater Brassard is. I mentioned last season, the difference (besides position) between Oscar Lindberg and Danny Kristo making it to the NHL is likely skating. Lindberg glides and creates chances. IMO, Stepan is not an elite skater and doesn't have that elite attribute to make up for it. Not an sharp shooter, tremendous play maker or skater. He's better than average at everything but i don't see him as somebody you can rely on for a growing point production year after year.
The hit stuff is just nonsense.
i never mocked shooting percentage. I said the opposite. I said shooting % is more important than amount of shots. I said the puck going in is more important than how many times you shoot it towards the net. I said goals are more important than shots.