Rangers coming off a "huh?" loss to the Devils, while the Wild have lost eight of their last nine games. Megna was called up yesterday, Nash is still out, and McIlrath will presumably make his return in Klein's place.
But we're also Mets fans, so the connection is undeniable :)
BTW, to take your comment further, aren't us suburbanite Isles fans usually the family men, since all the monied, single urbanites are the Rangers' demographic?
But we're also Mets fans, so the connection is undeniable :)
BTW, to take your comment further, aren't us suburbanite Isles fans usually the family men, since all the monied, single urbanites are the Rangers' demographic?
I'd always assumed that most Islanders fans are in prison. Hence to shitty attendance at the Coliseum. Islanders fandom is just another in a related line of poor life choices. White Power Randy is relegated to watching on T.V.
as it's been in I don't know how long. They're just running around hoping to get in the way of a bad pass and giving up a multitude of great scoring chances. It really has gone from bad to worse in a short period of time.
start being a bull in a China shop again...hit everything in sight, but do it a bit smarter now. But be f'n aggressive. He's got too much talent to be a JAG.
RE: Kreider needs to be told in no uncertain terms to Â
start being a bull in a China shop again...hit everything in sight, but do it a bit smarter now. But be f'n aggressive. He's got too much talent to be a JAG.
I would remove the be smart limitation. I'd almost tell him the opposite -- be a bull. If we have to kill some penalties, so be it. Impose yourself. Dont overthink it.
start being a bull in a China shop again...hit everything in sight, but do it a bit smarter now. But be f'n aggressive. He's got too much talent to be a JAG.
Yeah and compared to Hayes he;s been violent. Hayes' hit number is seriosuly embarrassing.
National Hockey League forwards reach their peak scoring performance at age 28 and defencemen peak at age 29, while goaltenders show little change in performance based on age, says a new study that crunched the numbers.
Those are the key findings of a study by the UBC business school that looked at the data from the 14 regular seasons between 1997-98 and 2011-12.
For co-author James Brander, the bottom line of their study is that "the key to winning is having good, young players."
"This study provides a more complete and more accurate assessment of how that works," he added.
The study will be published in the June issue of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Brander's co-authors are Edward Egan and Louisa Yeung. They analyzed peak performance in a number of ways, but the statistics they relied on were regular season points scored and plus-minus for skaters and save percentage for goalies.
Brander's team also found that forwards:
Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin "a significant decline in their early 30s."
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 32 years old.
25 is their most common age, with 24-27 very similar.
Defencemen, the co-authors report:
Improve and decline more slowly than forwards and do so very symmetrically.
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 34 years old (two years longer than forwards).
26 is their most common age, with 25 and 27 very similar.
For goalies, they found that:
Performance varies little by age.
At every age between 20 and 37, their save percentage is between 90 per cent and a tiny fraction over 91 per cent.
28 is their most common age, with 26-29 very similar.
For former hockey superstar Adam Oates, who just wrapped up two seasons as the Washington Capitals coach, "Statistics are important, no question," but he adds, "Right now, everybody is way too involved with analytics."
When it comes to coaching and managing, Oates says, there are many intangibles to take into consideration in addition to player stats. There's the particular style a team plays, leadership on and off the ice, the ability to stay on the same wavelength as one's teammates, the capacity to stay healthy, and so on.
For Oates, at the end of the day, you want a combination of everything and "you want a combination of youth and veterans."
Elite NHLers improve faster, peak longer
James Brander
Brander's study also looked at the NHL's elite players, which would include Oates.
Oates joined the NHL at age 23 and stayed for 19 seasons, playing for six teams. When he retired as a player, his assists total was the fifth highest in NHL history. A centre, his highest points per game seasons were when he was 28 and 30 years old. Oates played until he was 41.
Brander's study found that elite forwards are at their peak performance for scoring from age 27 to 29.
"Elite players improve faster initially, continue to improve for slightly longer and experience slower age-related decline," according to Brander. "They do not experience a major drop-off in performance until their late 30s."
Elite defencemen hit their scoring peak from 29 to 33.
Plus-minus a key metric for forwards
For forwards especially, another key metric that Brander analyzed was players' plus-minus number. In the NHL, plus-minus for a player compares the number of goals scored by his team when he's on the ice versus the goals scored by his opponents.
NHL forwards are at peak performance for this metric from age 23 to 25 and 23 to 30 for elite forwards. As the graph below shows, on average, forwards have a negative plus-minus until they are 22, positive from 23 to 29 and then it turns negative again in their 30s.
Brander also notes that "forwards who do not develop into consistent scorers by age 23 or 24 in most cases never will."
Why players peak when they do
What Brander and his team found for hockey corresponds to research on how physiology and intelligence relate to developing basic sports skills. "Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s," but "endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later — in the late 20s or early 30s."
Adam Oates
Adam Oates says that in the 2003 playoffs, when he was with the Anaheim Ducks, scoring a goal on his first shift of the first game of the playoffs 'mattered because I didn't want to be the old man that broke down in the playoffs.' Because he had had something good happen to him early, Oates says it freed him up mentally and he had a great playoffs. 'And that kind of stuff matters.' (Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press)
Those skills are all critical for hockey. Oates excelled at playmaking, which requires "a high level of physical co-ordination and an understanding of patterns as they develop in the game," according to Brander.
Brander says that may also be why defencemen peak slightly later than forwards, because they "rely more on pattern recognition and anticipation — which improve with experience — to play a good positional game and to make good passes."
Experience and wear and tear are also critical for NHL players. "As players become more experienced their positional play improves and their ability to anticipate improves, implying improvement with age. But wear and tear works in the opposite direction," Brander writes.
Oates notes that today, "It's a lot easier for an older guy to train than it used to be, to maintain conditioning."
He told CBC News that during his later seasons he thought it was great to play on the same team as a bunch of 20-somethings. "It kept me feeling younger, it really did."
The performance of older elite players depends on their status and what they want to accomplish. As an example, Oates pointed to 43-year-old Teemu Selanne, another NHL superstar, now with the Anaheim Ducks.
Interviewed before the Ducks were eliminated from the playoffs on Friday night, Oates said "Selanne is obviously looking for something different, and he's in a way different place in his life than he was, say, five years ago, because he kind of knows this is it and he's enjoying it, whereas five years ago he might have been thinking about money and playing longer, he might have been thinking about [how much ice time he gets]."
What about the playoffs?
Brander's study looked at regular season stats, but the NHL playoffs are into the semi-finals. He plans to look at playoff numbers in a future study, but says they were left out of this one because the playoffs are different from the regular season. He expects "experience matters more in the playoffs in almost all sports" and a new study will test that hypothesis.
The playoffs have what some statisticians call the hot goaltender effect. Oates says in the playoffs a team should expect to face a hot goaltender in two out of the four series, if it goes all the way to the finals.
Brander told CBC News that "the playoffs are hard to predict based on systematic factors like age," but "if you look at the age profile and take account of both age and experience, just on paper a team like Chicago looks good."
The UBC professor did add that, as a Canadian, he's rooting for Montreal.
Oates said that other things matter more in the playoffs. For example, "You want to always, somehow, have a spark to your team." For the New York Rangers that spark was how the team rallied around veteran Martin St. Louis, whose mother died during the series against Pittsburgh.
The Rangers came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the favourite Penguins and then won game one against Montreal in the semi-finals, in which St. Louis scored the first goal
I had seen analysis like at the link below, that forwards point production peaks at 24-25 (depending on if you're measuring per game or minute). Link - ( New Window )
I had seen analysis like at the link below, that forwards point production peaks at 24-25 (depending on if you're measuring per game or minute). Link - ( New Window )
I read the study at the time it came out and had a few issues with it, such as the use of plus/minus as an evaluation tool. I also think that the game has changed significantly over the course of the sample size used in the study (I think it was 14 years and that the game has gotten increasingly commoditized - I'd point to the collapsing point totals of the leaders and the rising SV% of goaltenders as evidence of this.
The article also does a disservice to the study (which is almost always the case) - they offered an alternative explanation of player participation that lowered the 'peak age' using the modal age (and the mean is pretty close to the modal age, IIRC - maybe a year higher) that has it closer to 26-27. I'd argue that the method used that's cited in the article can't adjust for survivorship bias, which the study also points out.
tl;dr: Davisian is partially correct (and the study partially discusses that as well). And I think teams will always have difficulty properly judging peaks/declines. How dumb would a team have felt letting Alfredsson go before his explosion at 33?
I think the Rangers have played better in recent weeks despite somewhat underwhelming results - if they go on a streak and win, say, eight of ten prior to the deadline and look good doing so, would you retain Yandle and make a run for it or trade him for (theoretically) a first/prospect?
they should keep Yandle barring a trade that sends us back a Shattenkirk type.
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
they should keep Yandle barring a trade that sends us back a Shattenkirk type.
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
RE: That McDavid goal they just showed on MSG was pretty. Â
BTW, to take your comment further, aren't us suburbanite Isles fans usually the family men, since all the monied, single urbanites are the Rangers' demographic?
Quote:
More anecdotal than fact-based
Translation: Brett talking out his ass yet again.
by the way, noticed Arc joins in on Mets threads these days but done with the Rangers. Cap casualty or does he just hate Brett and deej?
Haha, arc was our Hagelin. Cap casualty
BTW, to take your comment further, aren't us suburbanite Isles fans usually the family men, since all the monied, single urbanites are the Rangers' demographic?
I'd always assumed that most Islanders fans are in prison. Hence to shitty attendance at the Coliseum. Islanders fandom is just another in a related line of poor life choices. White Power Randy is relegated to watching on T.V.
What are the odds Stoll comes up with a big goal tonight?
And of course Hank can't stop the breakaway ...here we go.
Now the dreaded 3rd period - we really need to jettison these demons
I would remove the be smart limitation. I'd almost tell him the opposite -- be a bull. If we have to kill some penalties, so be it. Impose yourself. Dont overthink it.
Yeah and compared to Hayes he;s been violent. Hayes' hit number is seriosuly embarrassing.
and there he is!!!! KREIDS. BOOOM
Those are the key findings of a study by the UBC business school that looked at the data from the 14 regular seasons between 1997-98 and 2011-12.
For co-author James Brander, the bottom line of their study is that "the key to winning is having good, young players."
"This study provides a more complete and more accurate assessment of how that works," he added.
The study will be published in the June issue of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Brander's co-authors are Edward Egan and Louisa Yeung. They analyzed peak performance in a number of ways, but the statistics they relied on were regular season points scored and plus-minus for skaters and save percentage for goalies.
Brander's team also found that forwards:
Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin "a significant decline in their early 30s."
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 32 years old.
25 is their most common age, with 24-27 very similar.
Defencemen, the co-authors report:
Improve and decline more slowly than forwards and do so very symmetrically.
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 34 years old (two years longer than forwards).
26 is their most common age, with 25 and 27 very similar.
For goalies, they found that:
Performance varies little by age.
At every age between 20 and 37, their save percentage is between 90 per cent and a tiny fraction over 91 per cent.
28 is their most common age, with 26-29 very similar.
For former hockey superstar Adam Oates, who just wrapped up two seasons as the Washington Capitals coach, "Statistics are important, no question," but he adds, "Right now, everybody is way too involved with analytics."
When it comes to coaching and managing, Oates says, there are many intangibles to take into consideration in addition to player stats. There's the particular style a team plays, leadership on and off the ice, the ability to stay on the same wavelength as one's teammates, the capacity to stay healthy, and so on.
For Oates, at the end of the day, you want a combination of everything and "you want a combination of youth and veterans."
Elite NHLers improve faster, peak longer
James Brander
Brander's study also looked at the NHL's elite players, which would include Oates.
Oates joined the NHL at age 23 and stayed for 19 seasons, playing for six teams. When he retired as a player, his assists total was the fifth highest in NHL history. A centre, his highest points per game seasons were when he was 28 and 30 years old. Oates played until he was 41.
Brander's study found that elite forwards are at their peak performance for scoring from age 27 to 29.
"Elite players improve faster initially, continue to improve for slightly longer and experience slower age-related decline," according to Brander. "They do not experience a major drop-off in performance until their late 30s."
Elite defencemen hit their scoring peak from 29 to 33.
Plus-minus a key metric for forwards
For forwards especially, another key metric that Brander analyzed was players' plus-minus number. In the NHL, plus-minus for a player compares the number of goals scored by his team when he's on the ice versus the goals scored by his opponents.
NHL forwards are at peak performance for this metric from age 23 to 25 and 23 to 30 for elite forwards. As the graph below shows, on average, forwards have a negative plus-minus until they are 22, positive from 23 to 29 and then it turns negative again in their 30s.
Brander also notes that "forwards who do not develop into consistent scorers by age 23 or 24 in most cases never will."
Why players peak when they do
What Brander and his team found for hockey corresponds to research on how physiology and intelligence relate to developing basic sports skills. "Skills related to reaction time and to speed and explosive power of muscle movement peak in the early to mid-20s," but "endurance and skill at complex physical tasks peak later — in the late 20s or early 30s."
Adam Oates
Adam Oates says that in the 2003 playoffs, when he was with the Anaheim Ducks, scoring a goal on his first shift of the first game of the playoffs 'mattered because I didn't want to be the old man that broke down in the playoffs.' Because he had had something good happen to him early, Oates says it freed him up mentally and he had a great playoffs. 'And that kind of stuff matters.' (Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press)
Those skills are all critical for hockey. Oates excelled at playmaking, which requires "a high level of physical co-ordination and an understanding of patterns as they develop in the game," according to Brander.
Brander says that may also be why defencemen peak slightly later than forwards, because they "rely more on pattern recognition and anticipation — which improve with experience — to play a good positional game and to make good passes."
Experience and wear and tear are also critical for NHL players. "As players become more experienced their positional play improves and their ability to anticipate improves, implying improvement with age. But wear and tear works in the opposite direction," Brander writes.
Oates notes that today, "It's a lot easier for an older guy to train than it used to be, to maintain conditioning."
He told CBC News that during his later seasons he thought it was great to play on the same team as a bunch of 20-somethings. "It kept me feeling younger, it really did."
The performance of older elite players depends on their status and what they want to accomplish. As an example, Oates pointed to 43-year-old Teemu Selanne, another NHL superstar, now with the Anaheim Ducks.
Interviewed before the Ducks were eliminated from the playoffs on Friday night, Oates said "Selanne is obviously looking for something different, and he's in a way different place in his life than he was, say, five years ago, because he kind of knows this is it and he's enjoying it, whereas five years ago he might have been thinking about money and playing longer, he might have been thinking about [how much ice time he gets]."
What about the playoffs?
Brander's study looked at regular season stats, but the NHL playoffs are into the semi-finals. He plans to look at playoff numbers in a future study, but says they were left out of this one because the playoffs are different from the regular season. He expects "experience matters more in the playoffs in almost all sports" and a new study will test that hypothesis.
The playoffs have what some statisticians call the hot goaltender effect. Oates says in the playoffs a team should expect to face a hot goaltender in two out of the four series, if it goes all the way to the finals.
Brander told CBC News that "the playoffs are hard to predict based on systematic factors like age," but "if you look at the age profile and take account of both age and experience, just on paper a team like Chicago looks good."
The UBC professor did add that, as a Canadian, he's rooting for Montreal.
Oates said that other things matter more in the playoffs. For example, "You want to always, somehow, have a spark to your team." For the New York Rangers that spark was how the team rallied around veteran Martin St. Louis, whose mother died during the series against Pittsburgh.
The Rangers came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the favourite Penguins and then won game one against Montreal in the semi-finals, in which St. Louis scored the first goal
Peak - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
Fuck that! I want to still be in my prime!
Peak performance (seth) vs peak production (deej).
Very different things.
"we aren't winning because we are missing the key ingredient: old, bad players"
but no look check it out:
For co-author James Brander, the bottom line of their study is that "the key to winning is having good, young players."
The article also does a disservice to the study (which is almost always the case) - they offered an alternative explanation of player participation that lowered the 'peak age' using the modal age (and the mean is pretty close to the modal age, IIRC - maybe a year higher) that has it closer to 26-27. I'd argue that the method used that's cited in the article can't adjust for survivorship bias, which the study also points out.
tl;dr: Davisian is partially correct (and the study partially discusses that as well). And I think teams will always have difficulty properly judging peaks/declines. How dumb would a team have felt letting Alfredsson go before his explosion at 33?
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
At this point we are too far down the road of win now to care about a late first round pick we'd get back for Yandle. That wont do much for our farm system.
Now if we continue to suck and show poorly against other playoff teams (our last quality win was against Dallas), I'm all for being a seller and getting younger. Next few weeks are obviously critical.
19 of our final 29 games are against playoff teams. We're going to find out if this team is a contender soon enough.
I would call last night's win a quality win. Minnesota has been struggling, but they have a good team. Dubnyk was fantastic in the first period. Glad we stuck with it, especially going down 2-0 quickly.
Edmonton would hold out for the addition of Marcus Kuhn.