I haven't been able to watch much college hoops thus far this season and look forward to the next month.
Looking at the top 10, who do you folks see earning the top seeds?
My questions also include- Does MSt have the talent along with their superior coaching to win it all? Will UVA get through the Sweet 16? Are Nova/Ok/Xavier paper tigers?
Who you got securing the top seeds and what team in the top 10 has the goods to make a run?
Is there a mid-major such as VCU from '11 ready to bust the brackets?
Pretty wide open this year, no truly dominant teams. Villanova is probably a lock for a 1 seed simply because they really only have one tough game remaining on their schedule, at Xavier. Same thing with Iowa - no remaining opponents ranked at this time. Maryland plays at Purdue and Indiana in Bloomington is no gimme. Oklahoma has some tough sledding to come - home against Kansas and Baylor, on the road at WVU and Texas. Kansas has games at Oklahoma, Texas, and Baylor, and home against Iowa State and WVU.
That being said, I'm hanging my hat on Michigan State and Maryland this year, with Kansas a distant third. I think Villanova might be the best team in the country, but I cannot trust them come March.
It will be an upset filled tourney.
I'm having surgery on my deviated septum the day before the tourney starts. Cannot wait to not move from the couch for 4 days.
I think we're the only two Gonzaga fans on this board. Karnowski getting injured really hurt their depth. Who knows where they would be if Sabonis hasn't stepped up. It's an absolute pleasure watching Wiltjer play, and if he gets hot, I think the Zags could make a run. I hope they finish strong, win the WCC Tourney and I'm hoping for a 7, 8, 9, or 10 seed. Wouldn't mind being in the 8-9 game in Iowa or Xavier's section at all
Nova with no depth and 1 big will hurt them during the tournament. I know people think Maryland is overrated but they have the pieces in Trimble/Suilamn/Stone and some shooters.
Nova with no depth and 1 big will hurt them during the tournament. I know people think Maryland is overrated but they have the pieces in Trimble/Suilamn/Stone and some shooters.
Maryland doesn't control tempo enough to be a Final Four team, and they make enough mistakes each game to keep teams in it. They are also slightly soft - if they get WVU again, they'll get the same result as last year.
Providence and Xavier will be tough outs from the Big East, depending on where they are place.
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I think we're the only two Gonzaga fans on this board. Karnowski getting injured really hurt their depth. Who knows where they would be if Sabonis hasn't stepped up. It's an absolute pleasure watching Wiltjer play, and if he gets hot, I think the Zags could make a run. I hope they finish strong, win the WCC Tourney and I'm hoping for a 7, 8, 9, or 10 seed. Wouldn't mind being in the 8-9 game in Iowa or Xavier's section at all
Losing Karno obviously hurt, but a LOT of guys haven't stepped up despite ample opportunities. Melson can't shoot all of a sudden, Perkins is MADDENINGLY inconsistent, Alberts hasn't shot well, E-mAC and Dranginis have struggled with their shot, and Edwards has just started to step up in the past few games. Had this group of players been average, they probably would've won at least 4 of the games they've lost. Instead, they were GOD awful in at least 3 of those games while Domas and Wilt carried the team.
If UVA's recent play is more than just a hot streak, we can go far. The defense has improved dramatically from last month and LP and Brogs are really shooting the ball well. Brogdon had the ability to take over games in the past (look at the second half of the loss to UNC in the ACCT, he singlehandedly kept us close), but didn't have the mindset to do so very often. I think he's taken that next step to become a guy who can carry the team. We still have our weakness if our opponent gets hot from downtown, and we're weaker in the paint than the past few years, but we're deep, efficient, and so far this year we can really shoot the ball.
They have a dominant and imposing front court in Diamond Stone and Robert Carter, Jr. They have an NBA caliber guard who can get to the rim or the line at will and take over games-- and that seems to be the common thread of championship teams, that they have a star guard who can take over in the last few minutes. They also have multiple strong three point shooters. And the icing on the cake is that they are one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the country. I hate it, but they have the roster to do it.
If UVA's recent defensive play is an indication that they are gelling in Tony Bennett's system this season finally (despite lacking that Akil Mitchell / Darion Atkins player who can protect the rim but also hedge screens hard), then they will be a tough out.
They have two bad losses, both true road games in conference, but they have a fantastic collection of wins right now. Per KenPom/Sagarin ratings, they've won
vs. Villanova #2/#1
neutral vs WVU #7/#6
@ Louisville #9/#8
vs. Miami #12/#14
@ Notre Dame #28/#29
vs Syracuse #38/#42
vs Cal #42/#43
That has been a common acknowledgment among cbb fans who follow the efficiency rating systems. One thing worth noting is that it includes performance in the tournament. After winning the whole thing, teams' KenPom efficiency ratings will have gone up in at least one area since they will have just beaten a number of very good teams.
In other words, teams aren't necessarily Top 25 in adjusted offense and adjusted defense before the tournament, just that they are by the end of the tournament. Someone once looked to see where all champions were in their final pre-tourney KenPom ratings, but I can't remember where I read it.
It's a far cry from the NEC days, where they would be a #16 seed going against Duke.
The defending ACC champion fighting irish look like they are starting to gel late in the season again. Brey might not be bested by anyone when it comes to offensive coaching and if they can even play mediocre defense (which they did against UNC last week), they can make another NCAA tourney run.
Nova is no fluke at #1 and has the tools to win it all. UNC, Oklahoma, Maryland, Kansas are boring picks but will be selected to go far in my brackets barring radical things happening in the last month.