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NFT: Law does his rankings

ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 5:49 pm
Mets ranked 16th. Pretty much right where I expected. Amazing considering all the promotions last year.
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Full rankings  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 5:51 pm : link
For those with Insider.
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Yeah  
Deej : 2/10/2016 5:53 pm : link
and I still consider Herrera to be part of the system even if he isnt rookie eligible. He still counts in the "help is on the way" category.

Mets dont have a lot of roster holes. Long term the left side of the infield is an issue. But really cant be upset with middle of the road given how much young talent there is. Crucially, Mets need to keep their foot on the gas. Sign IFAs. Restock SPs, especially young hard throwers.
Yanks ranked 13th  
JoeMoney19 : 2/10/2016 6:02 pm : link
also higher than I'd have thought given the promotions of Bird and Severino.
RE: Yeah  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 6:09 pm : link
In comment 12809808 Deej said:
Quote:
and I still consider Herrera to be part of the system even if he isnt rookie eligible. He still counts in the "help is on the way" category.

Mets dont have a lot of roster holes. Long term the left side of the infield is an issue. But really cant be upset with middle of the road given how much young talent there is. Crucially, Mets need to keep their foot on the gas. Sign IFAs. Restock SPs, especially young hard throwers.


Yup. Montero too although with Matz counting it does sort of balance out.
Mets graduated HALF of the their top 10  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 6:13 pm : link
Syndergaard, Herrera, Plawecki, Conforto, and Montero.

AND traded away Fulmer and Meisner.
.....  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2016 6:14 pm : link
Atlanta's rise is remarkable. Two years ago they had the worst farm system in baseball. Now they are arguably the best and that doesn't count the arrival of the #3 pick in the draft and the likely arrival of Kevin Maitan and several more top IFA's.
Law says Angels' system is "by far"  
Deej : 2/10/2016 6:20 pm : link
the worst he's rated in 8 years of doing rankings. Suggests if they dont have a huge draft then they'll need to start discussing trading Trout.
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RE: Law says Angels' system is  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2016 6:25 pm : link
In comment 12809832 Deej said:
Quote:
the worst he's rated in 8 years of doing rankings. Suggests if they dont have a huge draft then they'll need to start discussing trading Trout. Link - ( New Window )

I don't know what they were doing making the Simmons trade. They had a big hard throwing LHP with top of the rotation potential and they traded him and their 2nd best prospect in the deal.
Wasn't Lazarito  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2016 6:31 pm : link
supposed to make his decision today?
RE: Law says Angels' system is  
bluepepper : 2/10/2016 6:43 pm : link
Quote:
the worst he's rated in 8 years of doing rankings. Suggests if they dont have a huge draft then they'll need to start discussing trading Trout. Link - ( New Window )

Not following this logic - they need to trade their 24 year old superstar to get some young talent?
RE: RE: Law says Angels' system is  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 6:46 pm : link
In comment 12809851 bluepepper said:
Quote:


Quote:


the worst he's rated in 8 years of doing rankings. Suggests if they dont have a huge draft then they'll need to start discussing trading Trout. Link - ( New Window )


Not following this logic - they need to trade their 24 year old superstar to get some young talent?


I think the logic is that Trout would return 5-6 elite young players. You can't build a team around one guy. Look what the Braves got for Shelby. Trout would bring in the biggest return in the history of baseball. I would give the Angels the Mets entire top 10 for Trout.
RE: RE: RE: Law says Angels' system is  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2016 6:50 pm : link
In comment 12809856 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 12809851 bluepepper said:


Quote:




Quote:


the worst he's rated in 8 years of doing rankings. Suggests if they dont have a huge draft then they'll need to start discussing trading Trout. Link - ( New Window )


Not following this logic - they need to trade their 24 year old superstar to get some young talent?



I think the logic is that Trout would return 5-6 elite young players. You can't build a team around one guy. Look what the Braves got for Shelby. Trout would bring in the biggest return in the history of baseball. I would give the Angels the Mets entire top 10 for Trout.

The Angels would laugh at that offer too. I can't imagine what it would take to get Trout but you are right that would be the biggest return in the history of baseball by far.
Honestly the Angels should trade Trout  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 6:52 pm : link
They have a laughable system and are going nowhere. Imagine getting a Seager, Urias, Pederson, Puig package? Thats how you turn a team around.
Trout  
JoeMoney19 : 2/10/2016 6:57 pm : link
is not going anywhere for any combination of prospects. His contract+age+ability would command a truly absurd package. Harper+Giolito is probably the only realistic one I can think of, and even then you're getting 2 less years of Harper and taking a risk with Giolito. You can basically take the two best players on every team in the league and find a reason why the Angels would turn the package down for Trout.
Well Puig, Pederson, and Seager  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 7:03 pm : link
are starters and are no longer prospects so yeah... I think the Angels would have to listen to a package if those 4 are the starting point. Im not arguing the Dodgers might even have to throw in more though.
The Angels will start shedding salary this off season and reload...  
Dunedin81 : 2/10/2016 7:03 pm : link
Via FA. The fact that their farm is terrible sucks for them but they're willing to maintain a high pagroll. So they won't be out of it.
Angels did some serious bargain  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 7:05 pm : link
bin shopping this year. I don't think their payroll situation is limitless. They are in bad shape.
Trading away  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 7:08 pm : link
your only two good prospects in your entire system for a SS who can't hit screams of desperation.

If the plan was to sit tight a year, shed some salary and add some players in free agency next year, they should have never traded for Simmons.
If they ever traded Trout  
Shecky : 2/10/2016 7:44 pm : link
And this is a mythical IF. But any team trading for him that doesn't expect to give up all their young talent. AND take Punils back with Trout. Is completely out of their minds. Trout goes no where without Pujols.
How did Boston end up?  
Bill L : 2/10/2016 7:46 pm : link
They lost some guys with the Kimbrel trade and like the Mets also moved several people out of prospect status within the last year so I would guess they didn't rank as well as I would hope?
RE: How did Boston end up?  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2016 7:56 pm : link
In comment 12809905 Bill L said:
Quote:
They lost some guys with the Kimbrel trade and like the Mets also moved several people out of prospect status within the last year so I would guess they didn't rank as well as I would hope?

Boston is still a top 5 farm system. I don't know where Law has them ranked but they have two of the top 15 prospects in baseball in Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers.
Trading for Harper misses the point  
Deej : 2/10/2016 7:56 pm : link
it's a total reset. What makes more sense would be Betts + Moncada + some combo of pitching prospects and maybe Swihart.

But I think unless they have money issues, plowing millions into IFA makes more sense. Trout is putting together a better than first ballot HOF career and he is 24.
Carlos Torres  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 8:02 pm : link
To Braves
You really can't just plow  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 8:06 pm : link
unlimited money into IFA anymore. You can on one player but as the Yankees and other teams are finding out it has consequences.
RE: You really can't just plow  
Deej : 2/10/2016 8:08 pm : link
In comment 12809924 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
unlimited money into IFA anymore. You can on one player but as the Yankees and other teams are finding out it has consequences.


I thought you could do it for one year and then for 2 seasons thereafter only sign guys for $300k, right? Or am I out of date? I think there is something to be said for what the Yanks did -- clear the market on year. Or the Sox -- blow it on an extraordinary talent.
RE: RE: You really can't just plow  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 8:11 pm : link
In comment 12809928 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12809924 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


unlimited money into IFA anymore. You can on one player but as the Yankees and other teams are finding out it has consequences.



I thought you could do it for one year and then for 2 seasons thereafter only sign guys for $300k, right? Or am I out of date? I think there is something to be said for what the Yanks did -- clear the market on year. Or the Sox -- blow it on an extraordinary talent.


Yes. The Yanks are freezed out on players north of 300K until 2017. I personally like what the Mets are doing lately. Giving 4-5 player between 500K-1.5 million. Lot of these guys are so far away. I like quantity.
That was sort of my point  
JoeMoney19 : 2/10/2016 8:14 pm : link
There aren't many if any realistic deals out there. I don't think Betts + Moncada + pitching prospects + Swihart gets it done. Betts is the only one proven MLB player in that group and he isn't close to Harper or Trout. Too many unknowns for the Angels to say yes to that.
Where as  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 8:18 pm : link
Puig, Pederson, and Seager ALREADY offers as much value in terms of WAR as Trout and thats with Seager only playing in 1/5th a season. Pretty safe bet those three surpass Trout's value in WAR in 2016 and then you ALSO throwing in the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball.

I think something like that gets the Angels attention. Obviously there would be more moving parts. Anyways, this will never happen. Have fun sucking Angels. lol
RE: You really can't just plow  
Jay on the Island : 2/10/2016 8:38 pm : link
In comment 12809924 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
unlimited money into IFA anymore. You can on one player but as the Yankees and other teams are finding out it has consequences.

You can but then you have to basically sit out the IFA market for a year or two. Atlanta is going to go way over the limit this year as they already allegedly have a 4.25 million dollar deal with Maitan and are rumored to also have a deal with top international catcher Abraham Gutierrez for 3 million and SS Junior Severino for 1 million. They are also expected to sign several others between 350k-1 Million. You don't have to blow the bank on some of these international free agents. The Braves signed top prospect SS Ozhaino Albies two years ago for only 350K and he looks like a future all star short stop. It is a rare year with such a talented prospect like Maitan available and the possibility that next year will be the beginning of an international draft.
RE: RE: You really can't just plow  
Dunedin81 : 2/10/2016 8:53 pm : link
In comment 12809928 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12809924 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


unlimited money into IFA anymore. You can on one player but as the Yankees and other teams are finding out it has consequences.



I thought you could do it for one year and then for 2 seasons thereafter only sign guys for $300k, right? Or am I out of date? I think there is something to be said for what the Yanks did -- clear the market on year. Or the Sox -- blow it on an extraordinary talent.


No guarantee that signing 4-5 guys for $500K or thereabouts is much better than signing 4-5 guys for $300K, which the Yanks and the other teams that are in the penalty have done, especially when you factor in a big-time spending binge (and significant investments in scouting and development in Latin America). And you sign one top Cuban who happens to be under 23 and you've completely blown through your allotment.
RE: RE: How did Boston end up?  
Dunedin81 : 2/10/2016 8:58 pm : link
In comment 12809913 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 12809905 Bill L said:


Quote:


They lost some guys with the Kimbrel trade and like the Mets also moved several people out of prospect status within the last year so I would guess they didn't rank as well as I would hope?


Boston is still a top 5 farm system. I don't know where Law has them ranked but they have two of the top 15 prospects in baseball in Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers.


They also love Benitendi.
True but it also undermines the penalty  
Deej : 2/10/2016 9:02 pm : link
getting to sign guys for 300k isnt so bad. To me it's not worth it to get a bunch of 500k kids. But blowing in on Moncada and a 3-4 7 figure bonus babies? Could be totally worth it.

IIRC, Mets have actually done very well with the cheaper signees. Dont remember who exactly though.
RE: True but it also undermines the penalty  
Dunedin81 : 2/10/2016 9:05 pm : link
In comment 12809972 Deej said:
Quote:
getting to sign guys for 300k isnt so bad. To me it's not worth it to get a bunch of 500k kids. But blowing in on Moncada and a 3-4 7 figure bonus babies? Could be totally worth it.

IIRC, Mets have actually done very well with the cheaper signees. Dont remember who exactly though.


A legit binge is a good idea, a single high-dollar signing really isn't. Even Moncada would have made more sense if they had gone all out the rest of that year, but they didn't have the deals in place to do it (though they got the top IFA arm and he's already blowing up).

But yeah the small-dollar signings can be huge. Avelino, Domingo Acevedo and Luis Severino signed for a combined $625 I believe.
RE: RE: RE: You really can't just plow  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 9:09 pm : link
In comment 12809966 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12809928 Deej said:


Quote:


In comment 12809924 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


unlimited money into IFA anymore. You can on one player but as the Yankees and other teams are finding out it has consequences.



I thought you could do it for one year and then for 2 seasons thereafter only sign guys for $300k, right? Or am I out of date? I think there is something to be said for what the Yanks did -- clear the market on year. Or the Sox -- blow it on an extraordinary talent.



No guarantee that signing 4-5 guys for $500K or thereabouts is much better than signing 4-5 guys for $300K, which the Yanks and the other teams that are in the penalty have done, especially when you factor in a big-time spending binge (and significant investments in scouting and development in Latin America). And you sign one top Cuban who happens to be under 23 and you've completely blown through your allotment.


The Mets aren't signing 4-5 guys at 500K though. The Mets signed two players well over a million and others in the 800K range. The Mets signed two of the top 10 IFA last year(Guerrero and Gimenez) and their system is crawling with Ali Sanchez types rising up. Obviously Rosario is the biggest example of this thats close. This has been their pattern for years ow actually. I can't think of many misses by the Mets yet. Hernandez struggled last year but he's what 16?
I didnt think either of the Mets guys  
Deej : 2/10/2016 9:23 pm : link
were considered top 10. MLB.com had them at 19 and 21. Certainly didnt get top 10 highest bonuses. Source?
RE: I didnt think either of the Mets guys  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 9:49 pm : link
In comment 12809991 Deej said:
Quote:
were considered top 10. MLB.com had them at 19 and 21. Certainly didnt get top 10 highest bonuses. Source?


Your right and wrong. They were both top 20. MLB had them at 15 and 17.
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And according to this they were both top 10  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 9:53 pm : link
I know I didn't get that out of my ass. lol.
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So yeah.  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 9:54 pm : link
Baseball America had them 2 and 6.
RE: RE: I didnt think either of the Mets guys  
Deej : 2/10/2016 9:56 pm : link
In comment 12810039 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 12809991 Deej said:


Quote:


were considered top 10. MLB.com had them at 19 and 21. Certainly didnt get top 10 highest bonuses. Source?



Your right and wrong. They were both top 20. MLB had them at 15 and 17. Link - ( New Window )


If you click on the link in that article to the rankings, it says 19 and 21.
RE: RE: RE: I didnt think either of the Mets guys  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 9:59 pm : link
In comment 12810051 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12810039 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


In comment 12809991 Deej said:


Quote:


were considered top 10. MLB.com had them at 19 and 21. Certainly didnt get top 10 highest bonuses. Source?



Your right and wrong. They were both top 20. MLB had them at 15 and 17. Link - ( New Window )



If you click on the link in that article to the rankings, it says 19 and 21.


Weird. Hmm. Must have changed since. At the time of the article Im betting it was 15 and 17 Too big of an error thats clearly spelled out in the second paragraph. Oh well. Like I said BA had them top 6. Good enough for me.
RE: So yeah.  
Deej : 2/10/2016 10:02 pm : link
In comment 12810048 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Baseball America had them 2 and 6.


Fair enough. I wonder whether those are still the ranks. big disparity with both MLB.com and what the bonuses given were. LA gave Alvarez 16 and Diaz 15.5. Fox got 6, Vlad Jr. got 3.9. Heredia (2.6), Ortiz (4), Javier (4), Celestino (2.5), Matias (2.25), Montano (2) , Estiwal (2.5), Taveras (2.1), Ademan (2), Brito (2), Cruz (2), and Vargas (1.7) -- all got more bonus than our 2. Suggests to me that 2 & 6 are not good rankings.
All I know is the Mets have an excellent scouting  
ZGiants98 : 2/10/2016 10:10 pm : link
department down there. Even somebody like Beccerra who apparently Sandy INSISTED on him at the time of the Dickey trade. Who has TDA and Syndergaard wrapped up and insists on Beccerra?? lol.

Almost all of their bigger bonus kids have proven to have real talent in quick order.
if Gretzky can be traded  
RasputinPrime : 2/11/2016 3:07 am : link
anyone can be traded.

That said, They have him signed up through his prime and won't get anything near his value unless another team is willing to start with a Ricky Williams package and then triple it.
RE: Angels did some serious bargain  
Dunedin81 : 2/11/2016 8:35 am : link
In comment 12809878 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
bin shopping this year. I don't think their payroll situation is limitless. They are in bad shape.


They shed Weaver and Wilson after this year, the Hamilton deal after next year. Richards is entering his big arb years and Trout's contract accelerates so it isn't all good news, but there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Moreno will spend but he is doggedly resisting going over the tax threshold.
The  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 9:32 am : link
Mets favor polish and playability in the IFA market vs. pure tools which is why you see their "bigger bonus" guys generally not as expensive. Tools you can dream on.
Law  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 9:44 am : link
raved about Smith's tools but trashed his conditioning (and yes, says he looked (in person) "sloppy" in the AFL. So time to close the book on "these are old reports".
Law  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 9:46 am : link
likes Rosario more than any other "expert". Star upside.
The Angels aren't trading Trout............  
BillKo : 2/11/2016 9:53 am : link
that's absurd. He's terrific, young, and a huge gate attraction.

The turn it around by starting to draft better......
Phillies are 6th!  
dep026 : 2/11/2016 9:54 am : link
With a number 1 pick this year, and a likely top 5 pick next year.
RE: The Angels aren't trading Trout............  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 9:55 am : link
In comment 12810364 BillKo said:
Quote:
that's absurd. He's terrific, young, and a huge gate attraction.

The turn it around by starting to draft better......


Agreed. With FA and the draft there is a 0% chance Mike Trout is traded.
So  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 10:06 am : link
strange how Law thinks Rosario has this potential plus power whereas basically everyone else says he has little to no power and hasn't really matured physically much since signing. I'd love for Law to be right about Smith, Rosario and Cecchini. Smith's weight is a concern because as Law notes, extra weight can contribute to knee and back issues.
Dan...  
Dunedin81 : 2/11/2016 10:13 am : link
can you give a rundown of what he thought on the Yanks' prospects, either here or on the Yankee thread (I'll bump it)? Thanks
Dunedin  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 10:27 am : link
Law is known to check out sites and complain about them if they post too much of his stuff so I will summarize

Judge- Middle of the order ceiling, has to make some adjustments to get there, should be above average or better in RF, plus arm, 70 pure power but that hasn't shown up in games, has issues with soft stuff away, 30 homer upside with 150+ k's per year

Mateo- 80 runner, makes all of the plays at SS but not yet plus there, makes good contact but not a lot of "strong" contact. If he can learn to make better contact (59% of his balls in play were grounders or pop ups) he has allstar upside with 60+ steals.

Sanchez- 70 power, 70 arm, good enough behind the plate to stay there, work ethic will dictate how good. MVP upside.
Kaprielian  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 10:28 am : link
93-95 with a wipe out slider, above average control (command is still developing). Should develop into mid-rotation SP.
Good stuff...  
Dunedin81 : 2/11/2016 10:29 am : link
I thought this was coming out of chat, which isn't subscriber only. Didn't he like Kaprielian as well?
Boston was ranked 10th  
stoneman : 2/11/2016 11:03 am : link
Law now ranks the Sox 10th among the 30 teams, after being ranked fifth in 2015. The system, he wrote was "[decimated] by promotions (to the big-league team) the past two years and the recent trade for Craig Kimbrel, which cost them two top-100 prospects and two others of some value". However, Law -- who thinks highly of 2015 No. 1 pick Andrew Benintendi -- says "big international spending and some productive drafts still have them a top-10 system overall".
Would love to see a ranking of teams  
Deej : 2/11/2016 11:32 am : link
by pre-arbitration talent rather than systems depth.
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