Looks like another rough day for US markets. The Fed message doesn't seem to have resonated. Yellen recognized the global economic malaise, but announced the Fed doesn't plan to raise interest rates anytime soon. Combine that with oil opening below $27 a barrel...
I've thought the bottom was close for a long time, but it looks like Bear market...
SMH
I agree. The predictions are all over the place. Seems feuled by the internet.
If it's based on something real, then I can deal.
Looks more like the smokescreen that was laid down after the financial crisis in 07 is starting to lift. Things never improved in the way that they seemed.
There is also still a lot of unease despite the 4.9% unemployment (U-6 is 9.9% IIRC). There has been very little wage growth the last twenty years, while the cost of education and health care have exploded.
But you definitely want to invest in the U.S. There is no other "game in town." The rest of the world is an economic mess. With that type of global uncertainty, people will engage in a "flight to security." That means buying U.S. paper, despite our $19T national debt, and blue chip dow stocks. Those are old line companies with a long history. That's where the money will go, with a bias towards companies that pay dividends. Even the bank stocks will eventually rebound. But this is going to be a rough year.
What did they do?
Not as worried about stock prices as actual economic indicators.
It's not 'Wall Street' that's corrupt, it's the way Government has allowed the financial system to become a piggy bank for the political class. As much as I thought thinks might change in 2008, they have not and will not. The only thing the little fish (small investor) can do is watch-out for the big fish.
What is more surprising is how so many of them have not been put in prison for their actions. Kind of tell's you that corruption is deep and our government is no longer concerned about their concerns beyond control.
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how much all of these brilliant and credentialed people (and I am not being sarcastic at all) in government and finance have fucked things up.
What is more surprising is how so many of them have not been put in prison for their actions. Kind of tell's you that corruption is deep and our government is no longer concerned about their concerns beyond control.
concerns of Americans to clarify
it was bound to have a pullback...
techs stocks have lead the way so of course they are the ones getting hit the worst
NFLX went from $39 a share a 3 years ago to 700 (split adjusted)
you can 't keep up that parabolic arc ...
probably going to have a consolidating market the next few years.
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how much all of these brilliant and credentialed people (and I am not being sarcastic at all) in government and finance have fucked things up.
What is more surprising is how so many of them have not been put in prison for their actions. Kind of tell's you that corruption is deep and our government is no longer concerned about their concerns beyond control.
You have to identify crimes and then be able to prove them beyond a reasonable doubt. Im surprised the mortgage qualification fraud wasnt prosecuted at all. Not surprised, from a purely legal perspective, that higher level executives werent prosecuted. White collar cases have a terrible conviction rates, are high profile when you lose, and are really resource intensive.
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In comment 12810243 HomerJones45 said:
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how much all of these brilliant and credentialed people (and I am not being sarcastic at all) in government and finance have fucked things up.
What is more surprising is how so many of them have not been put in prison for their actions. Kind of tell's you that corruption is deep and our government is no longer concerned about their concerns beyond control.
You have to identify crimes and then be able to prove them beyond a reasonable doubt. Im surprised the mortgage qualification fraud wasnt prosecuted at all. Not surprised, from a purely legal perspective, that higher level executives werent prosecuted. White collar cases have a terrible conviction rates, are high profile when you lose, and are really resource intensive.
I wasn't so much disappointed by the lack of jail time (although how Angelo Mozilo never did any time is beyond me), it was more the fact that few even lost their jobs. Proving criminal intent/neglect is a bitch, I get that - but how about incompetence? How did so many of these guys get to go on as BAU when their fingers were on the button for one of the worst meltdowns in history?
Same goes for politicians too, but that's a whole other story.
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In comment 12810359 mdc1 said:
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In comment 12810243 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
how much all of these brilliant and credentialed people (and I am not being sarcastic at all) in government and finance have fucked things up.
What is more surprising is how so many of them have not been put in prison for their actions. Kind of tell's you that corruption is deep and our government is no longer concerned about their concerns beyond control.
You have to identify crimes and then be able to prove them beyond a reasonable doubt. Im surprised the mortgage qualification fraud wasnt prosecuted at all. Not surprised, from a purely legal perspective, that higher level executives werent prosecuted. White collar cases have a terrible conviction rates, are high profile when you lose, and are really resource intensive.
I wasn't so much disappointed by the lack of jail time (although how Angelo Mozilo never did any time is beyond me), it was more the fact that few even lost their jobs. Proving criminal intent/neglect is a bitch, I get that - but how about incompetence? How did so many of these guys get to go on as BAU when their fingers were on the button for one of the worst meltdowns in history?
Same goes for politicians too, but that's a whole other story.
I agree that it's amazing that Mozillo is not in jail. Then you look at the number of politicians he was affiliated with and you understand (aka the Friends of Angelo).
You have to identify crimes and then be able to prove them beyond a reasonable doubt. Im surprised the mortgage qualification fraud wasnt prosecuted at all. Not surprised, from a purely legal perspective, that higher level executives werent prosecuted.
With respect to mortgage fraud and higher level executives, wouldn't you have to prove that those higher ups participated in, or encouraged, fraudulent applications and didn't rely on the ratings agencies when securitizing them? I have a hard tine believing that they were involved in the former and the later would be exceedingly difficult to prove. Ironically, it probably would have been easier, from an evidentiary point of view, to prosecute the applicants themselves and the low level employees who probably encouraged them.
I agree that it's amazing that Mozillo is not in jail. Then you look at the number of politicians he was affiliated with and you understand (aka the Friends of Angelo).
Perhaps the supreme irony, at least for all the small community banks struggling under the provisions of Dodd-Frank, is that Chris Dodd was an FOA
Community banks have been disappearing since the 80s it is a trend rather than regulations
.
80% disappeared because of consolidation rather than default.
Before Dodd Frank an average of 3.5% per year of community banks left marketplace -
Since Dodd Frank is it 4% average per year.
a zombie lie that refuses to die..
If on the other hand it's a normal market correction then everything is going on sale. I've been selectively buying more of the stocks I own that are at or close to their 52 week lows.
If you invest in good companies with strong balance sheets and leadership in their business area you will make money over time.
You're right that there is a great case against some of the people who lied on their mortgage applications. I'd think only the ones who went thru a middle man. If the Citibank loan manager is in on your lie in a loan app to Citibank, then the bank isnt defrauded. I suspect that the ugly prospect of prosecuting millions of under water homeowners, mostly poor ones, is why this was never went anywhere criminally.
I'm not good a picking stocks individually
Is it smart to do it right now? Depends on how soon you need that money, how much risk tolerance you have, and whether you believe the market will go down more and that you're capable of market timing.
china had billions of reserves that were diversified in assets... they bleed resesrves... the money comes out of the market.
thousands of young investors only saw QE markets where assets were inflated.... they now are barffing out illiquid QE positions and hedging in stocks.
hedge your book with gold and never forget that USTs are your friend.
I'm a great believer in longterm trends. I don't think e-trading and "new" financial instruments changes anything except volatility.
Some times dumb luck triumphs over careful planning.
The averages, because of how they are calculated and weighted, conceal the fact that most stocks are 30% and more below their 40- and approaching 200 day averages.
Kind of apropos