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NFT: deGrom wants to get long term deal done NOW

ShocknAwe80 : 2/11/2016 8:52 am
Get this done Sandy!!!
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RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 10:08 am : link
In comment 12810390 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
"Matz is eligible for this list only because he got hurt after his second big league start and spent the next 40 days on the shelf before heading out for a rehab assignment, returning to the rotation in September but keeping his innings total under 50 for the year. Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy.

Matz will pitch at 92-96 mph and has a plus changeup with outstanding arm speed that makes his fastball more effective even when he works up with it; almost two-thirds of his swings and misses in the majors last year came on fastballs, about as positive a sign for his future as I could throw at you. His curveball is solid-average, mostly 76-79 with good shape, but primarily a lefty-on-lefty weapon for him right now. That's still about a No. 2 starter package, but Matz has never reached 150 innings in any regular season since the Mets took him in the second round of 2009, with 2014 and 2015 representing his peak with just more than 140 innings pitched in each season. He has had Tommy John surgery, knee surgery, back issues, a torn lat muscle and shoulder tendinitis, which may not even be a complete list of his ailments.

Mets manager Terry Collins has talked a good game about getting Matz up to 190 innings this year, but even if he can do that now, can he do it regularly? His stuff says yes, but his health history to date says no."


That is not what he is saying at all. He's saying his overall value will be league average because he's of the belief the flashes he's shown won't be sustainable due to his inability to stay healthy. He says "more than a mid-rotation guy". He says #2 starter package, he's not dinging the stuff/ability at all.
I will say this, though  
Matt M. : 2/11/2016 10:09 am : link
Even though I would do from the team perspective, it might make more sense from DeGrom's. Given his age and team control for 5 years, this might be his only real shot at a decent, long term deal. He should get as much guaranteed money, now, because by the time he is out of team control he isn't likely to get a longer than 2-3 year deal.
i think  
sshin05 : 2/11/2016 10:09 am : link
the Bumgarner contract of 6 for $35.56 million is a great starting point for deGrom. Incredibly cheap contract Bumgarner signed back in 2012.
RE: RE: .  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 10:14 am : link
In comment 12810397 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12810390 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


"Matz is eligible for this list only because he got hurt after his second big league start and spent the next 40 days on the shelf before heading out for a rehab assignment, returning to the rotation in September but keeping his innings total under 50 for the year. Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy.

Matz will pitch at 92-96 mph and has a plus changeup with outstanding arm speed that makes his fastball more effective even when he works up with it; almost two-thirds of his swings and misses in the majors last year came on fastballs, about as positive a sign for his future as I could throw at you. His curveball is solid-average, mostly 76-79 with good shape, but primarily a lefty-on-lefty weapon for him right now. That's still about a No. 2 starter package, but Matz has never reached 150 innings in any regular season since the Mets took him in the second round of 2009, with 2014 and 2015 representing his peak with just more than 140 innings pitched in each season. He has had Tommy John surgery, knee surgery, back issues, a torn lat muscle and shoulder tendinitis, which may not even be a complete list of his ailments.

Mets manager Terry Collins has talked a good game about getting Matz up to 190 innings this year, but even if he can do that now, can he do it regularly? His stuff says yes, but his health history to date says no."



That is not what he is saying at all. He's saying his overall value will be league average because he's of the belief the flashes he's shown won't be sustainable due to his inability to stay healthy. He says "more than a mid-rotation guy". He says #2 starter package, he's not dinging the stuff/ability at all.


Yeah he's saying that too. Seems to contradict himself a bit though. "Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy." Then later says he has number two upside. Eh. Law has never been a huge fan of Matz IMO.
RE: i think  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 10:18 am : link
In comment 12810401 sshin05 said:
Quote:
the Bumgarner contract of 6 for $35.56 million is a great starting point for deGrom. Incredibly cheap contract Bumgarner signed back in 2012.


The Bumgarner deal bought out his entire 6 years of control(pre-arb and arb) in return for two option years. The 35.56 million was likely about the same or roughly a little more than he would have received on his own anyway. The option years could bring the total to 61 million.
Law  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 10:19 am : link
has long viewed Matz as a reliever long term due to durability/arm action. He's been high on Smith, Cecchini and Rosario for ages. Was high on Nimmo before 2014 but has progressively degraded that view. Haven't really seen an updated/post draft opinion of Plawecki from him.
I just think 37 is way too low  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 10:25 am : link
At the mid season rankings last year some were saying Matz would have been top 10 had he not just been promoted. I dont think some unrelated lat injury should change that drastically(not saying Law had him top 10). Matz already faired pretty well during the season and postseason in limited time as well which should really further his cause.

Matz does need to prove he can stay healthy but if he does, he could potentially be a dominant starter. His two seamer averaged 94.7 last year. His slider averaged 94.2. That's harder than Kershaw throws.
37 isnt too low IMO  
Deej : 2/11/2016 10:30 am : link
if you're convinced he's never gonna make it through a season.

It's a somewhat odd ranking. Matz is 100% healthy. He's just guessing at future injuries.
In  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 10:31 am : link
fairness Law had the same concerns about Sale. Sale has stayed healthy and is an absolute stud. That said until a pitcher proves he can throw 200 innings for a few years in a row it's fair to question his durability. I love Matz but even in terms of his time off and it's "bonus" of keeping his stuff fresh makes him harder to judge. Will his stuff look that good at the 140 mark? 160? 180? 200? These are things we don't yet know.
RE: 37 isnt too low IMO  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 10:32 am : link
In comment 12810440 Deej said:
Quote:
if you're convinced he's never gonna make it through a season.

It's a somewhat odd ranking. Matz is 100% healthy. He's just guessing at future injuries.


Deej,
He has never made more than 24 starts in a season and has never topped 140 innings pitched. Until he does his durability is a valid concern to me. If he throws 190 healthy innings this year he will quiet a lot of that down. If he comes up lame with a back strain or a lat strain etc the questions will remain.
RE: In  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 10:35 am : link
In comment 12810443 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
fairness Law had the same concerns about Sale. Sale has stayed healthy and is an absolute stud. That said until a pitcher proves he can throw 200 innings for a few years in a row it's fair to question his durability. I love Matz but even in terms of his time off and it's "bonus" of keeping his stuff fresh makes him harder to judge. Will his stuff look that good at the 140 mark? 160? 180? 200? These are things we don't yet know.


Fair enough.
RE: RE: 37 isnt too low IMO  
Deej : 2/11/2016 10:39 am : link
In comment 12810449 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12810440 Deej said:


Quote:


if you're convinced he's never gonna make it through a season.

It's a somewhat odd ranking. Matz is 100% healthy. He's just guessing at future injuries.



Deej,
He has never made more than 24 starts in a season and has never topped 140 innings pitched. Until he does his durability is a valid concern to me. If he throws 190 healthy innings this year he will quiet a lot of that down. If he comes up lame with a back strain or a lat strain etc the questions will remain.


I know. It's just a little odd given no current injuries. I cant say Law is wrong to take it into consideration, but I think it would be equally correct to rate him on ability and current health, and note the concern. Unless he has MRIs on every pitcher, they're all risks.
Law really gushes over  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 11:06 am : link
Smith and Rosario. Thinks Rosario could be a top 10 prospect this time next year. Also thinks Smith is the safest bet in the minors to hit .300 with 20 HR upside and elite defense in the majors.
RE: Law really gushes over  
Deej : 2/11/2016 11:09 am : link
In comment 12810501 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Smith and Rosario. Thinks Rosario could be a top 10 prospect this time next year. Also thinks Smith is the safest bet in the minors to hit .300 with 20 HR upside and elite defense in the majors.


Im drooling...
Really  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 11:11 am : link
wonder why Smith isn't in better shape. They send him to the fitness camp (I believe twice even) yet it doesn't seem to help much. Curious if they are going to change his diet or something. They did that with Wilmer a few years back.
RE: Really  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 11:16 am : link
In comment 12810508 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
wonder why Smith isn't in better shape. They send him to the fitness camp (I believe twice even) yet it doesn't seem to help much. Curious if they are going to change his diet or something. They did that with Wilmer a few years back.


The guy clearly has some major issues. So strange. Like I said last year in spring training he was in pretty good shape. Little gut sure but nothing major. Posted pictures at the start of St. Lucie and he still looked pretty fit. He literally blew up again over the course of the season. Even Law says "Smith is a 70 defender at first with a 70 arm, but his body has gotten far too big over the past year. Never svelte, he looked sloppy in the Arizona Fall League. We like fat hitters when they can hit, but Smith appears to be blowing off basic conditioning" which suggests to me his in-season routine/diet is awful.
In season diet  
Deej : 2/11/2016 11:21 am : link
lets remember this is minor league baseball. MiLBers eat like shit. It's an odd but well known problem. Remains to be seen whether he's Sandoval or Mo Vaughn versus a kid who needs to mature some. Maybe when he gets to spring training Wright can ball him out and have a reliever throw his lunch in the garbage.

Link to Gabe Kapler writing on it.
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I mean wtf? lol  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 11:26 am : link
How is this the same year?



Matz has the potential to be an Ace  
Vanzetti : 2/11/2016 11:35 am : link
Because he is 24, people forget how little time Matz spent in the minors.

I agree with Law that injuries are a concern but as Matz matures, his curve figures to get a lot better and I disagree that he can't throw it to righties. I have seen him throw some filthy curves. He is just not consistent with the pitch.

2nd pick is from before 2015 season started  
Deej : 2/11/2016 11:37 am : link
.
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RE: Matz has the potential to be an Ace  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 11:38 am : link
In comment 12810565 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
Because he is 24, people forget how little time Matz spent in the minors.

I agree with Law that injuries are a concern but as Matz matures, his curve figures to get a lot better and I disagree that he can't throw it to righties. I have seen him throw some filthy curves. He is just not consistent with the pitch.


Supposedly is toying with the "Warthen Slider" as well.
AFL  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 11:39 am : link
concluded November 21st for context as to when Law saw him. Would also give him roughly 3 total months to get into shape before ST for Bingo
RE: Law really gushes over  
Vanzetti : 2/11/2016 11:41 am : link
In comment 12810501 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Smith and Rosario. Thinks Rosario could be a top 10 prospect this time next year. Also thinks Smith is the safest bet in the minors to hit .300 with 20 HR upside and elite defense in the majors.


Jonathan Mayo and Toby Hyde said Rosario's defense is a "tick above average." That seems to be true if you look at the defensive metrics his first years. But last year he had Ozzie Smith like metrics. It will be interesting to see how much he can improve his fielding. Just watching a few highlights, he looks like he has a quick first step and very good range.
I was watching the mets hot stove report on SNY  
JayBinQueens : 2/11/2016 11:41 am : link
the other day, and they had an interview with wheeler.

He made an interesting comment about Warthen;
He said that what he likes about him is that Warthen will give him advice and how he would like him to do things but always leaves the ultimate decision up to the pitchers.

How rare is that actually?
RE: 2nd pick is from before 2015 season started  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 11:41 am : link
In comment 12810571 Deej said:
Quote:
. Link - ( New Window )


Well then it must be from the year before of early in the offseason. Point remains the guy is up and down. He got very fat over the course the year last year correct picture or not.
RE: I was watching the mets hot stove report on SNY  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 11:43 am : link
In comment 12810582 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
the other day, and they had an interview with wheeler.

He made an interesting comment about Warthen;
He said that what he likes about him is that Warthen will give him advice and how he would like him to do things but always leaves the ultimate decision up to the pitchers.

How rare is that actually?


Warthen is the man. probably in the running for best pitching coach in the majors.
RE: RE: Law really gushes over  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 11:44 am : link
In comment 12810581 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
In comment 12810501 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


Smith and Rosario. Thinks Rosario could be a top 10 prospect this time next year. Also thinks Smith is the safest bet in the minors to hit .300 with 20 HR upside and elite defense in the majors.



Jonathan Mayo and Toby Hyde said Rosario's defense is a "tick above average." That seems to be true if you look at the defensive metrics his first years. But last year he had Ozzie Smith like metrics. It will be interesting to see how much he can improve his fielding. Just watching a few highlights, he looks like he has a quick first step and very good range.


So many conflicting reports regarding Rosario Im almost dizzy. Excited to see what he does in 2016.
I  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 11:46 am : link
like Wheeler a lot but he seems dumber than the other 4 we have. Some of his comments (specifically about the shift) are really odd.
Eh. This time last year  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 11:52 am : link
everyone was saying Syndergaard had questionable makeup concerns and he says a ton of odd, almost funny, stuff.

Now we all love him though.

Wheeler turns in a dominant second half or dominant 2017 and it will be the Wheel Deal all day every day. ;)
Not  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 11:59 am : link
really sure what that has to do with intelligence. Wheeler said

""I don't want to piss anybody off but, honestly, I don't like it," he said. "Teams are starting to be more analytical these days. ... I don't like analytics all that much, but I'm not the boss here. I really can't control it. They know where I stand on that."

which caused the Mets to stop using them when he pitched. Yet the numbers showed he was FAR better with the shift on.
Maybe he just doesn't feel comfortable with a shift on?  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 12:11 pm : link
Might make him feel he has to pitch into the shift? Being more cognizant of it maybe it makes him extra careful not to throw a pitch that might allow a ball to go through the gaping hole behind him? Who knows. Not sure that makes him stupid though.

Or maybe he is? lol
The  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 12:12 pm : link
shift is one thing, this ". I don't like analytics all that much" makes me question his mind to be honest. Why wouldn't you value extra data?
RE: The  
Deej : 2/11/2016 12:14 pm : link
In comment 12810670 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
shift is one thing, this ". I don't like analytics all that much" makes me question his mind to be honest. Why wouldn't you value extra data?


My guess is that a lot of athletes dismiss metrics as a bunch of math for nerds.
Carlos  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 12:18 pm : link
Torres signs with the Braves
He's  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 12:19 pm : link
nothing special but I don't understand why we dumped him
With  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 12:19 pm : link
the pick included I think this is a terrible deal.

5:07pm: ESPNs Buster Olney tweets that if and when the deal between the Orioles and Gallardo is finalized, hell be guaranteed $40-45MM over three years.
Where do we pick now?  
Deej : 2/11/2016 12:21 pm : link
.
RE: Where do we pick now?  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 12:22 pm : link
In comment 12810693 Deej said:
Quote:
.


20th
RE: He's  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 12:22 pm : link
In comment 12810686 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
nothing special but I don't understand why we dumped him


Feel the same about Ceciliani. 40 man is so packed, there just isn't room. Id cut Campbell but it probably does make some sense to have at least one guy on the roster you would feel ok about losing going into the season if you have to purchase a Bernadina or something in an emergency.
RE: With  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 12:24 pm : link
In comment 12810689 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the pick included I think this is a terrible deal.

5:07pm: ESPNs Buster Olney tweets that if and when the deal between the Orioles and Gallardo is finalized, hell be guaranteed $40-45MM over three years.


Even better... expected to sign Fowler as well as they feel he would be worth it if it only costs them a second pick so our comp pcik would move up too. 20 and 30.
Signing two guys makes more sense  
Deej : 2/11/2016 12:26 pm : link
I really thought the market for Murphy was going to be a team signing him as their #2 UFA score.
They  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 12:27 pm : link
aren't "expected to sign" Fowler. It's been said they may go after him if they sign Gallardo.

"Its likely that an Orioles pursuit of Fowler only makes sense if theyve already signed Gallardo because the club is looking for a shorter-term deal with the 29-year-old outfielder. But one club official said that hed go after Fowler first because its easier to justify losing a first-round pick when youre getting a high-quality position player rather than a starting pitcher.

Now, the argument can be made that neither player Gallardo or Fowler is worth losing a first-round pick. And that might truly be the case, but they both fit the Orioles' needs well, which is the biggest reason this possible scenario is real."
Really  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 12:28 pm : link
don't like that Gallardo move but once you make that move, Fowler for a 2nd makes a lot of sense especially if they can land him for 2 years which they apparently are. I'd go 3 pretty easily.
I forget who it was  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 12:29 pm : link
that tweeted yesterday they were expected to. Id look it up but I dont care enough. Guess we'll see.
ZGiants  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 12:34 pm : link
that's directly from there beat guy. There is nothing on twitter at all that suggests they are "expected to" sign him.

Buster OlneyVerified account ‏@Buster_ESPN 18h18 hours ago
The Orioles have interest in Dexter Fowler in the range of Howie Kendrick's deal with the Dodgers -- 2 years, $20 million.
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 12:35 pm : link
Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 4h4 hours ago
#Orioles do want 1 more LH bat to balance lineup better and Fowler, Alvarez, Bruce are in consideration.
Yeah I didn't mean  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 12:40 pm : link
"Expected" as in imminent. Just very interested or likely. I know I read it. I'll gladly look for it later but I really don't give a crap. Lol. They either will or won't.
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 2:08 pm : link
White Sox "in" on Desmond. Great fit for both sides.
Beautiful  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2016 3:17 pm : link
Wouldn't that move us up to 19? Sweet.
RE: Beautiful  
DanMetroMan : 2/11/2016 3:32 pm : link
In comment 12811088 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Wouldn't that move us up to 19? Sweet.


Their first rounder is protected I believe
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