DeGrom doesn't insist it be now, he's just begun to consider it.
“I haven’t thought that much about it and I have to talk to my agents and stuff and look at the numbers and decide what was favorable,’’ said deGrom, who turns 28 in June.
Would be a nice optically, but not a lot of incentive from Met POV Â
They have him under control for 5 years, so to tacking on another year or 2 is mostly just the risk of guaranteeing a lot of money for a pitcher. Would send a nice message to the whole team that they take care of their guys even when they don't have to though. Or create some jealousy.
Harvey/Familia are another story since both are potential FA in just 3 years, but even 3 years is an eternity and a lot can change. Harvey is the only guy it makes sense to talk to about an extension now, but the conventional wisdom is he'd never do one.
guys are ignoring the price of arbitration. If you lock him up now those numbers are set. He's signed 16, 17, 18, 19, 20. Give him 5 guaranteed years with 2 team options.
Im fine with it but I really dont want to extend him now on anything other than that. We have him for 5 more years. He'll be going on 33 when he is a free agent.
The guys is freakishly skinny and was already having a few hip issues down the stretch last year. Doubt he holds up over 5 years. I see a Lincecum part two honestly.
Zero chance deGrom is throwing 96 5 years from now when he is 33 also. Even if his body remarkably holds up he wont be the same player. Talk extension in 2019. He'll still have no leverage. Nobody will be lining up to sign a 33 year old to a long term deal 6 years from now.
at the time of free agency its possible. Not sure what that has to do with anything now. 5 years is a long time.
Id bet everything I own deGrom wont be a top 5 pitcher at 33 VS somebody who would take that bet. Odds would be grossly in my favor. In fact, its probably much more likely he'll be out of baseball completely.
RE: Yeah if deGrom is still absolutely dominating Â
at the time of free agency its possible. Not sure what that has to do with anything now. 5 years is a long time.
Id bet everything I own deGrom wont be a top 5 pitcher at 33 VS somebody who would take that bet. Odds would be grossly in my favor. In fact, its probably much more likely he'll be out of baseball completely.
You are making it sound like I'm suggesting paying deGrom market value. I'm suggesting just the opposite. A team friendly sweet deal that lowers his rate substantially for years 18-19-20 thanks to eliminating arbitration and then tacking on options in case he's still good. Out of baseball at 33? Talk about ZGiants typical hyperbole.
guys are ignoring the price of arbitration. If you lock him up now those numbers are set. He's signed 16, 17, 18, 19, 20. Give him 5 guaranteed years with 2 team options.
Exactly... yes, he's under control, but his arbitration numbers will continue to climb
Im not in favor of giving power pitching frail pitchers lifetime deals. I have no problem with people that do.
Id be much more in favor of locking up position players. Power pitching starters typically dont hold up well in their 30s.
Even with position players there is risk. A bunch of people here were saying how sweet it would be to extend Lagares and now we are screwed having to pay him guaranteed money. He's essentially an albatross. It doesn't always work out.
All that said, once again, if its only for team options there is no downside I guess. Id be ok with "team options".
They can probably save money long term by either avoiding arbitration or the increase in market value. He is at an age where they can give him a 3-5 year deal and be into his prime, with 1 or 2 team options for the end of the deal. This would lock up what should be his most productive years. Of course, the risk of injury factors in to the decision, but I would still do it.
"Matz is eligible for this list only because he got hurt after his second big league start and spent the next 40 days on the shelf before heading out for a rehab assignment, returning to the rotation in September but keeping his innings total under 50 for the year. Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy.
Matz will pitch at 92-96 mph and has a plus changeup with outstanding arm speed that makes his fastball more effective even when he works up with it; almost two-thirds of his swings and misses in the majors last year came on fastballs, about as positive a sign for his future as I could throw at you. His curveball is solid-average, mostly 76-79 with good shape, but primarily a lefty-on-lefty weapon for him right now. That's still about a No. 2 starter package, but Matz has never reached 150 innings in any regular season since the Mets took him in the second round of 2009, with 2014 and 2015 representing his peak with just more than 140 innings pitched in each season. He has had Tommy John surgery, knee surgery, back issues, a torn lat muscle and shoulder tendinitis, which may not even be a complete list of his ailments.
Mets manager Terry Collins has talked a good game about getting Matz up to 190 innings this year, but even if he can do that now, can he do it regularly? His stuff says yes, but his health history to date says no."
"Matz is eligible for this list only because he got hurt after his second big league start and spent the next 40 days on the shelf before heading out for a rehab assignment, returning to the rotation in September but keeping his innings total under 50 for the year. Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy.
Matz will pitch at 92-96 mph and has a plus changeup with outstanding arm speed that makes his fastball more effective even when he works up with it; almost two-thirds of his swings and misses in the majors last year came on fastballs, about as positive a sign for his future as I could throw at you. His curveball is solid-average, mostly 76-79 with good shape, but primarily a lefty-on-lefty weapon for him right now. That's still about a No. 2 starter package, but Matz has never reached 150 innings in any regular season since the Mets took him in the second round of 2009, with 2014 and 2015 representing his peak with just more than 140 innings pitched in each season. He has had Tommy John surgery, knee surgery, back issues, a torn lat muscle and shoulder tendinitis, which may not even be a complete list of his ailments.
Mets manager Terry Collins has talked a good game about getting Matz up to 190 innings this year, but even if he can do that now, can he do it regularly? His stuff says yes, but his health history to date says no."
That is not what he is saying at all. He's saying his overall value will be league average because he's of the belief the flashes he's shown won't be sustainable due to his inability to stay healthy. He says "more than a mid-rotation guy". He says #2 starter package, he's not dinging the stuff/ability at all.
Even though I would do from the team perspective, it might make more sense from DeGrom's. Given his age and team control for 5 years, this might be his only real shot at a decent, long term deal. He should get as much guaranteed money, now, because by the time he is out of team control he isn't likely to get a longer than 2-3 year deal.
"Matz is eligible for this list only because he got hurt after his second big league start and spent the next 40 days on the shelf before heading out for a rehab assignment, returning to the rotation in September but keeping his innings total under 50 for the year. Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy.
Matz will pitch at 92-96 mph and has a plus changeup with outstanding arm speed that makes his fastball more effective even when he works up with it; almost two-thirds of his swings and misses in the majors last year came on fastballs, about as positive a sign for his future as I could throw at you. His curveball is solid-average, mostly 76-79 with good shape, but primarily a lefty-on-lefty weapon for him right now. That's still about a No. 2 starter package, but Matz has never reached 150 innings in any regular season since the Mets took him in the second round of 2009, with 2014 and 2015 representing his peak with just more than 140 innings pitched in each season. He has had Tommy John surgery, knee surgery, back issues, a torn lat muscle and shoulder tendinitis, which may not even be a complete list of his ailments.
Mets manager Terry Collins has talked a good game about getting Matz up to 190 innings this year, but even if he can do that now, can he do it regularly? His stuff says yes, but his health history to date says no."
That is not what he is saying at all. He's saying his overall value will be league average because he's of the belief the flashes he's shown won't be sustainable due to his inability to stay healthy. He says "more than a mid-rotation guy". He says #2 starter package, he's not dinging the stuff/ability at all.
Yeah he's saying that too. Seems to contradict himself a bit though. "Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy." Then later says he has number two upside. Eh. Law has never been a huge fan of Matz IMO.
the Bumgarner contract of 6 for $35.56 million is a great starting point for deGrom. Incredibly cheap contract Bumgarner signed back in 2012.
The Bumgarner deal bought out his entire 6 years of control(pre-arb and arb) in return for two option years. The 35.56 million was likely about the same or roughly a little more than he would have received on his own anyway. The option years could bring the total to 61 million.
has long viewed Matz as a reliever long term due to durability/arm action. He's been high on Smith, Cecchini and Rosario for ages. Was high on Nimmo before 2014 but has progressively degraded that view. Haven't really seen an updated/post draft opinion of Plawecki from him.
At the mid season rankings last year some were saying Matz would have been top 10 had he not just been promoted. I dont think some unrelated lat injury should change that drastically(not saying Law had him top 10). Matz already faired pretty well during the season and postseason in limited time as well which should really further his cause.
Matz does need to prove he can stay healthy but if he does, he could potentially be a dominant starter. His two seamer averaged 94.7 last year. His slider averaged 94.2. That's harder than Kershaw throws.
fairness Law had the same concerns about Sale. Sale has stayed healthy and is an absolute stud. That said until a pitcher proves he can throw 200 innings for a few years in a row it's fair to question his durability. I love Matz but even in terms of his time off and it's "bonus" of keeping his stuff fresh makes him harder to judge. Will his stuff look that good at the 140 mark? 160? 180? 200? These are things we don't yet know.
if you're convinced he's never gonna make it through a season.
It's a somewhat odd ranking. Matz is 100% healthy. He's just guessing at future injuries.
Deej,
He has never made more than 24 starts in a season and has never topped 140 innings pitched. Until he does his durability is a valid concern to me. If he throws 190 healthy innings this year he will quiet a lot of that down. If he comes up lame with a back strain or a lat strain etc the questions will remain.
fairness Law had the same concerns about Sale. Sale has stayed healthy and is an absolute stud. That said until a pitcher proves he can throw 200 innings for a few years in a row it's fair to question his durability. I love Matz but even in terms of his time off and it's "bonus" of keeping his stuff fresh makes him harder to judge. Will his stuff look that good at the 140 mark? 160? 180? 200? These are things we don't yet know.
if you're convinced he's never gonna make it through a season.
It's a somewhat odd ranking. Matz is 100% healthy. He's just guessing at future injuries.
Deej,
He has never made more than 24 starts in a season and has never topped 140 innings pitched. Until he does his durability is a valid concern to me. If he throws 190 healthy innings this year he will quiet a lot of that down. If he comes up lame with a back strain or a lat strain etc the questions will remain.
I know. It's just a little odd given no current injuries. I cant say Law is wrong to take it into consideration, but I think it would be equally correct to rate him on ability and current health, and note the concern. Unless he has MRIs on every pitcher, they're all risks.
Smith and Rosario. Thinks Rosario could be a top 10 prospect this time next year. Also thinks Smith is the safest bet in the minors to hit .300 with 20 HR upside and elite defense in the majors.
Smith and Rosario. Thinks Rosario could be a top 10 prospect this time next year. Also thinks Smith is the safest bet in the minors to hit .300 with 20 HR upside and elite defense in the majors.
wonder why Smith isn't in better shape. They send him to the fitness camp (I believe twice even) yet it doesn't seem to help much. Curious if they are going to change his diet or something. They did that with Wilmer a few years back.
wonder why Smith isn't in better shape. They send him to the fitness camp (I believe twice even) yet it doesn't seem to help much. Curious if they are going to change his diet or something. They did that with Wilmer a few years back.
The guy clearly has some major issues. So strange. Like I said last year in spring training he was in pretty good shape. Little gut sure but nothing major. Posted pictures at the start of St. Lucie and he still looked pretty fit. He literally blew up again over the course of the season. Even Law says "Smith is a 70 defender at first with a 70 arm, but his body has gotten far too big over the past year. Never svelte, he looked sloppy in the Arizona Fall League. We like fat hitters when they can hit, but Smith appears to be blowing off basic conditioning" which suggests to me his in-season routine/diet is awful.
lets remember this is minor league baseball. MiLBers eat like shit. It's an odd but well known problem. Remains to be seen whether he's Sandoval or Mo Vaughn versus a kid who needs to mature some. Maybe when he gets to spring training Wright can ball him out and have a reliever throw his lunch in the garbage.
Because he is 24, people forget how little time Matz spent in the minors.
I agree with Law that injuries are a concern but as Matz matures, his curve figures to get a lot better and I disagree that he can't throw it to righties. I have seen him throw some filthy curves. He is just not consistent with the pitch.
Because he is 24, people forget how little time Matz spent in the minors.
I agree with Law that injuries are a concern but as Matz matures, his curve figures to get a lot better and I disagree that he can't throw it to righties. I have seen him throw some filthy curves. He is just not consistent with the pitch.
Supposedly is toying with the "Warthen Slider" as well.
Smith and Rosario. Thinks Rosario could be a top 10 prospect this time next year. Also thinks Smith is the safest bet in the minors to hit .300 with 20 HR upside and elite defense in the majors.
Jonathan Mayo and Toby Hyde said Rosario's defense is a "tick above average." That seems to be true if you look at the defensive metrics his first years. But last year he had Ozzie Smith like metrics. It will be interesting to see how much he can improve his fielding. Just watching a few highlights, he looks like he has a quick first step and very good range.
the other day, and they had an interview with wheeler.
He made an interesting comment about Warthen;
He said that what he likes about him is that Warthen will give him advice and how he would like him to do things but always leaves the ultimate decision up to the pitchers.
Well then it must be from the year before of early in the offseason. Point remains the guy is up and down. He got very fat over the course the year last year correct picture or not.
RE: I was watching the mets hot stove report on SNY Â
the other day, and they had an interview with wheeler.
He made an interesting comment about Warthen;
He said that what he likes about him is that Warthen will give him advice and how he would like him to do things but always leaves the ultimate decision up to the pitchers.
How rare is that actually?
Warthen is the man. probably in the running for best pitching coach in the majors.
Smith and Rosario. Thinks Rosario could be a top 10 prospect this time next year. Also thinks Smith is the safest bet in the minors to hit .300 with 20 HR upside and elite defense in the majors.
Jonathan Mayo and Toby Hyde said Rosario's defense is a "tick above average." That seems to be true if you look at the defensive metrics his first years. But last year he had Ozzie Smith like metrics. It will be interesting to see how much he can improve his fielding. Just watching a few highlights, he looks like he has a quick first step and very good range.
So many conflicting reports regarding Rosario Im almost dizzy. Excited to see what he does in 2016.
really sure what that has to do with intelligence. Wheeler said
""I don't want to piss anybody off but, honestly, I don't like it," he said. "Teams are starting to be more analytical these days. ... I don't like analytics all that much, but I'm not the boss here. I really can't control it. They know where I stand on that."
which caused the Mets to stop using them when he pitched. Yet the numbers showed he was FAR better with the shift on.
Maybe he just doesn't feel comfortable with a shift on? Â
Might make him feel he has to pitch into the shift? Being more cognizant of it maybe it makes him extra careful not to throw a pitch that might allow a ball to go through the gaping hole behind him? Who knows. Not sure that makes him stupid though.
Lotta risk going real long term with pitchers.
“I haven’t thought that much about it and I have to talk to my agents and stuff and look at the numbers and decide what was favorable,’’ said deGrom, who turns 28 in June.
Harvey/Familia are another story since both are potential FA in just 3 years, but even 3 years is an eternity and a lot can change. Harvey is the only guy it makes sense to talk to about an extension now, but the conventional wisdom is he'd never do one.
The guys is freakishly skinny and was already having a few hip issues down the stretch last year. Doubt he holds up over 5 years. I see a Lincecum part two honestly.
Zero chance deGrom is throwing 96 5 years from now when he is 33 also. Even if his body remarkably holds up he wont be the same player. Talk extension in 2019. He'll still have no leverage. Nobody will be lining up to sign a 33 year old to a long term deal 6 years from now.
Id bet everything I own deGrom wont be a top 5 pitcher at 33 VS somebody who would take that bet. Odds would be grossly in my favor. In fact, its probably much more likely he'll be out of baseball completely.
Id bet everything I own deGrom wont be a top 5 pitcher at 33 VS somebody who would take that bet. Odds would be grossly in my favor. In fact, its probably much more likely he'll be out of baseball completely.
You are making it sound like I'm suggesting paying deGrom market value. I'm suggesting just the opposite. A team friendly sweet deal that lowers his rate substantially for years 18-19-20 thanks to eliminating arbitration and then tacking on options in case he's still good. Out of baseball at 33? Talk about ZGiants typical hyperbole.
Exactly... yes, he's under control, but his arbitration numbers will continue to climb
Not at all saying he will be out of baseball.
Id be much more in favor of locking up position players. Power pitching starters typically dont hold up well in their 30s.
Even with position players there is risk. A bunch of people here were saying how sweet it would be to extend Lagares and now we are screwed having to pay him guaranteed money. He's essentially an albatross. It doesn't always work out.
All that said, once again, if its only for team options there is no downside I guess. Id be ok with "team options".
Matz will pitch at 92-96 mph and has a plus changeup with outstanding arm speed that makes his fastball more effective even when he works up with it; almost two-thirds of his swings and misses in the majors last year came on fastballs, about as positive a sign for his future as I could throw at you. His curveball is solid-average, mostly 76-79 with good shape, but primarily a lefty-on-lefty weapon for him right now. That's still about a No. 2 starter package, but Matz has never reached 150 innings in any regular season since the Mets took him in the second round of 2009, with 2014 and 2015 representing his peak with just more than 140 innings pitched in each season. He has had Tommy John surgery, knee surgery, back issues, a torn lat muscle and shoulder tendinitis, which may not even be a complete list of his ailments.
Mets manager Terry Collins has talked a good game about getting Matz up to 190 innings this year, but even if he can do that now, can he do it regularly? His stuff says yes, but his health history to date says no."
Matz will pitch at 92-96 mph and has a plus changeup with outstanding arm speed that makes his fastball more effective even when he works up with it; almost two-thirds of his swings and misses in the majors last year came on fastballs, about as positive a sign for his future as I could throw at you. His curveball is solid-average, mostly 76-79 with good shape, but primarily a lefty-on-lefty weapon for him right now. That's still about a No. 2 starter package, but Matz has never reached 150 innings in any regular season since the Mets took him in the second round of 2009, with 2014 and 2015 representing his peak with just more than 140 innings pitched in each season. He has had Tommy John surgery, knee surgery, back issues, a torn lat muscle and shoulder tendinitis, which may not even be a complete list of his ailments.
Mets manager Terry Collins has talked a good game about getting Matz up to 190 innings this year, but even if he can do that now, can he do it regularly? His stuff says yes, but his health history to date says no."
That is not what he is saying at all. He's saying his overall value will be league average because he's of the belief the flashes he's shown won't be sustainable due to his inability to stay healthy. He says "more than a mid-rotation guy". He says #2 starter package, he's not dinging the stuff/ability at all.
Quote:
"Matz is eligible for this list only because he got hurt after his second big league start and spent the next 40 days on the shelf before heading out for a rehab assignment, returning to the rotation in September but keeping his innings total under 50 for the year. Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy.
Matz will pitch at 92-96 mph and has a plus changeup with outstanding arm speed that makes his fastball more effective even when he works up with it; almost two-thirds of his swings and misses in the majors last year came on fastballs, about as positive a sign for his future as I could throw at you. His curveball is solid-average, mostly 76-79 with good shape, but primarily a lefty-on-lefty weapon for him right now. That's still about a No. 2 starter package, but Matz has never reached 150 innings in any regular season since the Mets took him in the second round of 2009, with 2014 and 2015 representing his peak with just more than 140 innings pitched in each season. He has had Tommy John surgery, knee surgery, back issues, a torn lat muscle and shoulder tendinitis, which may not even be a complete list of his ailments.
Mets manager Terry Collins has talked a good game about getting Matz up to 190 innings this year, but even if he can do that now, can he do it regularly? His stuff says yes, but his health history to date says no."
That is not what he is saying at all. He's saying his overall value will be league average because he's of the belief the flashes he's shown won't be sustainable due to his inability to stay healthy. He says "more than a mid-rotation guy". He says #2 starter package, he's not dinging the stuff/ability at all.
Yeah he's saying that too. Seems to contradict himself a bit though. "Matz looks like a league-average starter who might show flashes above that but won't have the durability to profile as more than a mid-rotation guy." Then later says he has number two upside. Eh. Law has never been a huge fan of Matz IMO.
The Bumgarner deal bought out his entire 6 years of control(pre-arb and arb) in return for two option years. The 35.56 million was likely about the same or roughly a little more than he would have received on his own anyway. The option years could bring the total to 61 million.
Matz does need to prove he can stay healthy but if he does, he could potentially be a dominant starter. His two seamer averaged 94.7 last year. His slider averaged 94.2. That's harder than Kershaw throws.
It's a somewhat odd ranking. Matz is 100% healthy. He's just guessing at future injuries.
It's a somewhat odd ranking. Matz is 100% healthy. He's just guessing at future injuries.
Deej,
He has never made more than 24 starts in a season and has never topped 140 innings pitched. Until he does his durability is a valid concern to me. If he throws 190 healthy innings this year he will quiet a lot of that down. If he comes up lame with a back strain or a lat strain etc the questions will remain.
Fair enough.
Quote:
if you're convinced he's never gonna make it through a season.
It's a somewhat odd ranking. Matz is 100% healthy. He's just guessing at future injuries.
Deej,
He has never made more than 24 starts in a season and has never topped 140 innings pitched. Until he does his durability is a valid concern to me. If he throws 190 healthy innings this year he will quiet a lot of that down. If he comes up lame with a back strain or a lat strain etc the questions will remain.
I know. It's just a little odd given no current injuries. I cant say Law is wrong to take it into consideration, but I think it would be equally correct to rate him on ability and current health, and note the concern. Unless he has MRIs on every pitcher, they're all risks.
Im drooling...
The guy clearly has some major issues. So strange. Like I said last year in spring training he was in pretty good shape. Little gut sure but nothing major. Posted pictures at the start of St. Lucie and he still looked pretty fit. He literally blew up again over the course of the season. Even Law says "Smith is a 70 defender at first with a 70 arm, but his body has gotten far too big over the past year. Never svelte, he looked sloppy in the Arizona Fall League. We like fat hitters when they can hit, but Smith appears to be blowing off basic conditioning" which suggests to me his in-season routine/diet is awful.
Link to Gabe Kapler writing on it.
Link - ( New Window )
I agree with Law that injuries are a concern but as Matz matures, his curve figures to get a lot better and I disagree that he can't throw it to righties. I have seen him throw some filthy curves. He is just not consistent with the pitch.
Link - ( New Window )
I agree with Law that injuries are a concern but as Matz matures, his curve figures to get a lot better and I disagree that he can't throw it to righties. I have seen him throw some filthy curves. He is just not consistent with the pitch.
Supposedly is toying with the "Warthen Slider" as well.
Jonathan Mayo and Toby Hyde said Rosario's defense is a "tick above average." That seems to be true if you look at the defensive metrics his first years. But last year he had Ozzie Smith like metrics. It will be interesting to see how much he can improve his fielding. Just watching a few highlights, he looks like he has a quick first step and very good range.
He made an interesting comment about Warthen;
He said that what he likes about him is that Warthen will give him advice and how he would like him to do things but always leaves the ultimate decision up to the pitchers.
How rare is that actually?
Well then it must be from the year before of early in the offseason. Point remains the guy is up and down. He got very fat over the course the year last year correct picture or not.
He made an interesting comment about Warthen;
He said that what he likes about him is that Warthen will give him advice and how he would like him to do things but always leaves the ultimate decision up to the pitchers.
How rare is that actually?
Warthen is the man. probably in the running for best pitching coach in the majors.
Quote:
Smith and Rosario. Thinks Rosario could be a top 10 prospect this time next year. Also thinks Smith is the safest bet in the minors to hit .300 with 20 HR upside and elite defense in the majors.
Jonathan Mayo and Toby Hyde said Rosario's defense is a "tick above average." That seems to be true if you look at the defensive metrics his first years. But last year he had Ozzie Smith like metrics. It will be interesting to see how much he can improve his fielding. Just watching a few highlights, he looks like he has a quick first step and very good range.
So many conflicting reports regarding Rosario Im almost dizzy. Excited to see what he does in 2016.
Now we all love him though.
Wheeler turns in a dominant second half or dominant 2017 and it will be the Wheel Deal all day every day. ;)
""I don't want to piss anybody off but, honestly, I don't like it," he said. "Teams are starting to be more analytical these days. ... I don't like analytics all that much, but I'm not the boss here. I really can't control it. They know where I stand on that."
which caused the Mets to stop using them when he pitched. Yet the numbers showed he was FAR better with the shift on.
Or maybe he is? lol