Morning guys: Just 42 days until the draft; hard to believe where the time goes when one is having fun!
Have been working on updating our 2016 mock and without question trying to settle on a pick for the Giants is about as hard as it gets for any team in the opening round. Indeed, there are as many as 8-10 players that one can make the case they should, or at least could be the Giants pick with the 10th pick. Given our affinity for the Giants we have been scouring the pro day dispatches for any hint as to who they might be focusing in on given that in recent years one could usually follow where Jerry Reese and company were visiting and they’d pretty much lead one to the pick. So we are tad shocked when the first (and as far as we can tell so far only) campus workout that Reese has attended was that of Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd who wasn’t even on our ‘short list’ of the 8-10 cases that could be made.
Like most of the faithful our initial response was “NO WAY JOSE, NO CHANCE, NOT NOW, NOT EVER’ would the Giants be taking Floyd with the 10th pick. So what were they doing at Georgia? Thinking about a trade down? Blowing some smoke? Made some sense, but that’s simply not what the Giants do. What they do is go check out guys that their scouts have a high grade on. And, as perhaps the original ‘follow the money’ guy who lives by the old Yogi maxim that “one can see a lot by just watching” it is simply hard to get around the notion that the Giants were in Georgia looking at Floyd because they really like him as a prospect.
First, a couple of basic principles. Most importantly, this is not going to be a case of Reese ‘falling in love’ with the player as they like to say. The Giants have a process when it comes to the draft. Over the course of a season they will have at least one regional scout and two area scouts visit each of the major programs across the country at different times during the year who grade all the players. Then before the combine all the grades are aggregated and the Giants put together their preliminary board and identify the guys they want to focus in at the combine and at the pro days.
Second, the notion that on draft day the Giants sit around their war room checking off the players selected ahead of them and then take the ‘best player available’ left on the board when they get on the clock is a myth. Or at least it has been for the past 15-20 years. True, there been a couple of instances this century – Kiwi in 2007 and Prince in 2011 – when the Giants did take a BPA, but both were players they really didn’t expect to be there.
However, since at least 2000 the Giants have done one of two things with their top pick. Either they have targeted a particular position or issue: CB in 2001, DL in 2003, DB in 2006, WR in 2009, WR or OL in 2013 and OT in 2015. Or they have gone into the draft targeting a particular player they really liked: Shockey in 2002, Eli in 2004, Sinorice Moss in 2006 (nobody gets it right every year!), Kenny Phillips in 2008, JPP in 2010, David Wilson in 2012 and Justin Pugh in 2013. Sometimes those guys were at prime positions of need; other years not so much as they were just guys the Giants thought would be special players.
So where does the potential interest Floyd fit in that mix. Who knows for sure, but I suspect it may be close to the former. My guess is that the fact that the Giants are looking at an edge rusher suggest that maybe they ain’t done with the pass rush quite yet. It also suggests that the Giants plans to get back on the plus side this off-season may have less to do with filling a so-called shopping list of needs and more with reinventing the pass rush.
And it’s not hard to figure why. The Giants formula in both 2007 and 2011, for example, combined a solid passing attack and a dynamic pass rush. Plus one doesn’t have to look far past this year’s Super Bowl win by Denver which was powered almost exclusively by their pass rush. Indeed, in the end, one can make a pretty good case that the Giants could sign (or draft) all the Pro Bowl RTs, MLBs and free safeties in the world, but it will mean diddly squat if they can’t generate a pass rush. On the other hand, get back to rushing the passer and they could have Daffy Duck at FS, Donald (Duck or Trump – your choice) at MLB and Elmer Fudd at RT and still be solid contenders.
The other thing that people can probably take to the bank is that the team the Giants field in 2016 will not be your grandfather’s team. At least it won’t be Dylan, Cooper and Walker’s grandfather’s team. Indeed, there are pretty good odds that one is going to see a sea-change in the way the Giants try and win games this fall. The past few years under Tom Coughlin, for example, the basic philosophy was essentially very conservative: don’t turn the ball over on offense; don’t give up the big-play on defense; and get the game into the 4th quarter where you let your QB do his thing then.
In contrast, the front office has wanted a much aggressive approach on both sides of the ball. On offense that means spreading the field, creating mismatches and generating big plays off those mismatches. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next couple of year’s Ben McAdoo evolves into a mad hatter of offensive game planners with all kinds of 4 and 5-receiver sets with WRs lining up in the backfield and RBs flexing out into space.
(Clearly, the Giants still need more playmakers at the skill positions to be truly effective in that regard, but that will come. In fact, my early assumptions were that the Giants would use free agency this year to try and get the defense back to a point where it was at least respectable and then use the draft to add to the skill positions to try and make the offense scary good and that is still a possibility. That’s why a Zeke Elliott makes a lot of sense. Not because the Giants need another RB; but one can do so many things with a talented guy like Elliott; other team plays run you flex him out and challenge them to cover him; other team plays pass keep him in the backfield and run the ball, etc. At the same time, though, while the Giants would probably like to upgrade at RB, they probably also feel that in a worst case scenario the offense will still be pretty good if its just Jennings and Vereen at the position again in 2016, although I would expect Mcadoo to maybe use them a little differently. Same story at TE. And its probably something of a similar story at RT. Bu getting in on the likes of Okung and Penn etc. the Giants have clearly indicated that they would like to upgrade there, but they also don’t appear to be so concerned that, unlike the situation on the DL, they aren’t going to just throw money at the position. In the end, they probably will find a decent FA OT just hoping to have a job, but they probably also feel that even in the worst case scenario in which they bring back Newhouse, Jerry and Hart, they would still have a unit that was top 5 in the league last year in fewest sacks allowed.)
I would expect an even more dramatic change in philosophy on the other side of the ball. In fact, one can make a pretty good case that the reason Coughlin got fired was that he just would not make any changes to a defensive game plan that just wasn’t working. From week one to week 16 they played the same static, vanilla defense in which they rushed 4 and dropped the coverage 12-15 yards off the line of scrimmage with the goal of keeping everything in front of them and coming up and tackling the receiver once the ball was caught. It didn’t work in week, it didn’t work in week 8 and it didn’t work in week 16, but the Giants made almost no attempt to make any adjustments. Coughlin apologists will blame it all on the lack of talent, but the fact is that defense could never have worked in this era of controlled passing attacks. Bottom line is you can not win in the NFL without being able to rush the passer and if you aren’t getting there with what you are doing then you have to do something else, otherwise you got no chance.
One can probably figure that Steve Spags marching orders this coming fall are to get to the QB. And that’s where a Leonard Floyd might come in; while technically a LB, he is potentially the most dynamic edge rusher in this year’s draft. He has an explosive first step and actually gathers speed on his second and third steps; he can also dip and bend and change direction. And he’s got a good motor. The one thing he didn’t have at Georgia was a lot of production, but they tended to use him in so many different roles that they never really tapped into his pass-rush potential (and the coach got fired!) If he indeed becomes a Giant, line him up on the weakside, bring him up to the LOS and tell him to get after the ball.
What could be just as interesting is what the Giants do with their other premium picks on April 29th. If they did get another pass rusher, would they then look to add a WR, RB or TE. Or would they stick with the defense either at CB, S or even another pass rusher. One guy a little under the radar that would be intriguing at #40, although again a little outside the box might be Bronson Kaufusi. Even though it is a really good year at DT I am not sure the Giants use a premium pick on someone at the position as its likely they wouldn’t start the year as any more than the 3-4 guy at the position, someone like Kaufusi who isn’t really a DE or DT – and isn’t really even a 5T DE – but is a really athletic, might be an intriguing option to give you some depth at DE and a potentially really good inside pass rusher on 3rd downs. Just a thought.
Have a nice day!
Don't see the thread, but it seemed that his take was trending towards that interceptions are sort of an outsiders concept, a naïve fans perspective. He used the term "stealing the pass", which seemed kind of archaic to me.
This might be a good place to post the names of some guys who don't agree with that sentiment, and, interestingly, more than a few safeties are on the list, something trending this year, draft tea leaves wise:
1. Paul Krause+ 81 1964-1979 2TM
2. Emlen Tunnell+ 79 1948-1961 2TM
3. Rod Woodson+ 71 1987-2003 4TM
4. Night Train Lane+ 68 1952-1965 3TM
5. Ken Riley 65 1969-1983 cin
Charles Woodson (39) 65 1998-2015 2TM
7. Ed Reed 64 2002-2013 3TM
8. Darren Sharper 63 1997-2010 3TM
Ronnie Lott+ 63 1981-1994 3TM
10. Dave Brown 62 1975-1989 3TM
Dick LeBeau+ 62 1959-1972 det
12. Emmitt Thomas+ 58 1966-1978 kan
13. Everson Walls 57 1981-1993 3TM
Johnny Robinson 57 1960-1971 kan
Eugene Robinson 57 1985-2000 4TM
Bobby Boyd 57 1960-1968 clt
Mel Blount+ 57 1970-1983 pit
18. Lem Barney+ 56 1967-1977 det
Pat Fischer 56 1961-1977 2TM
20. Aeneas Williams+ 55 1991-2004 2TM
21. Darrell Green+ 54 1983-2002 was
Willie Brown+ 54 1963-1978 2TM
Eric Allen 54 1988-2001 3TM
24. Ty Law 53 1995-2009 4TM
Deion Sanders+ 53 1989-2005 5TM
26. Champ Bailey 52 1999-2013 2TM
Jack Butler+ 52 1951-1959 pit
Bobby Dillon 52 1952-1959 gnb
Etc.
He seems to get engage easily. Little to no power.....and I just do not see the speed rush.
What am I missing? Is there specific film on him?
...very interesting (as always), and always informative.
Your point of getting to the passer is a crucial one. I would love to add to that the ability to control the tempo of the game (when need be ... i.e., with a lead) with a reliable running game. That, of course, requires more talent on the right side.
But in the end, I guess the Giants can't fix everything at once, and fixing the pass rush is indeed very crucial!!!
Thanks again for all the insights!
You are looking for a player that can play NFL linebacker, that can play with his hand in the dirt ...AND run and cover tight ends and drop into a zone vs WRs.
That is a very, very tall order in the world of 330lb NFL O linesmen, the rush part.
There are other positions in the 'other than DE' group that one can use to generate pass rush (DT), and positions other than LB that can be used to drop and cover (DB's of all sorts).
My guess at % chance succeed and to fit, in this case to have pass rush from a player who also fills his role across the board is higher at Rush DT (Billings maybe, possibly another unusual type) than it is to succeed in game play and fit with the unusual player that does it all at LB.
I love Tom Coughlin but I believe his departure will create a breath of fresh air and allow the aggressive tactics you out-lined above.
I think everything about this football team the last 12 years - good and bad - was Tom's doing. He is the ultimate control freak. Just looking forward to some new ideas as it appeared to me he became an easy opponent the last few years.
I also think they'd love DeForest Buckner.
The next tier is where the Giants are likely doing a lot of hard work sorting out their board because they have to think it's unlikely any of these guys will fall to 40. That list seems to start with Lawson and Ogbah since both did well enough at the combine and check off the production box. Both Alabama interior guys, but more so A. Robinson, look like they could be impact players more in the mold of Dareus than some of the other recent Bama guys who didn't do much. I think Robinson in particular is going to get top 10 consideration from multiple teams. Is Floyd in this tier? Or Kevin Dodd? I personally like Dodd better than Lawson, but there's not a lot of track record to go on. Jerry Reese likes clean prospects and I think all of these guys check that box unless the Giants were one of the teams that had an issue with Lawson's shoulder.
After that there's still a lot of DL talent left but none of them seem like locks to go in the first round - Calhoun, Rankins, Billings, Bullard, Nkemdich, Spence, Butler, Chris Jones.
It's not the Giants style to wait around for the best remaining guy to fall to them at 40 - seems much more likely to me they are scouring all of these guys and taking their favorite at 10 unless Buckner, Bosa, or Jack falls into their lap. On paper Ogbah would have been my guess after his combine and based on his production but after watching some tape on him he seems to disappear for pretty long stretches.
The question then becomes, is the 5th dl player actually a linebacker type, or do you run it with 3 DTs and 2 DEs?
There are obvious arguments in favor of both ways, it would depend on whom you have on roster.
The 'big' 5, obviously, OLs are huge now, and there are all sorts of DTs you can blend in with 3, and gaps ratio to break open.
The 'small' 5, ala Kiwi as rush LB, depends on whom you have, the benefit would be in the inability of the opposing team to know what the heck you will do from one down to the next. Many, many variations with same set on field.
So it comes down to the perceived risk factors in integrating any given pick.
I surmise that you are either a school teacher / professor or an author of some sort
And it's not '07 or'11 anymore. You a decent FS and a WILL with speed to win.
The Giants have long experimented with using a LB who is really a rush guy- Sintim, Kiwi, etc. Part of the problem has been that they have tried to convert guys who were really glorified DE's in college and not only had to learn the LB position in the pros, but also had to learn pass-rush moves.
THAT is why I think the Giants may be "locking in" on Floyd. He has been a LB who sometimes rushes the passer, but also is used to dropping into coverage and at least has an understanding of the position, even if he is somewhat miscast.
I think that a guy like Floyd probably starts as a situational rusher and occasionally as a decoy. The Giants could bring him in as a "rush LB" to be able to bring 5 guys- with Floyd coming wherever they see a weakness on the line - or use him to make the other team believe a LB blitz is coming, then drop him into coverage- while the QB checks down to a quick hit pass or a run play.
I agree 1000% with Colin's analysis- Coughlin won with a formula- but the NFL is a league that adjusts to success- and Coughlin seemed unable to adjust his philosophy late in his career. I also agree that the Giants will unview a different defense that takes risks, goes for the ball- and will sometimes get beat badly.
In many ways, I think that Coughlin misjudged his QB. When you have one of the better QBs in the game- let his game run your team- let him go on the attack- and have your D try to get him the ball as often and quickly as possible. Instead, the offense was unimaginative and overly scripted.
I agree with Colin that the Giants may give Eli more control of the offense- maybe not Peyton style, but certainly more imagination and options.
I also think they'd love DeForest Buckner.
What do you mean what he pulled at his Pro Day?! He had food poisoning.
Just saying, if it would be me, and I do totally agree with big rick about being multiple and getting away from 4/3 under orthodoxy or whatever you call it.
I would still draft a Billings before a Floyd, as that would not negate multiplicity, just offers, to me, a less risky route to another type of multiplicity.
That said, trade down and take the same player is always a win win, but maybe not.
So, for example, take 6 downs:
1. With JPP/Hank and Harrison\Vernon you run "ravens"
2. Same set but run "giants / TC" but improved
3. DE/Billings and Harrison/DE, 'Bucs' or 'Philly'
or
4. "5 line big", JPP/Billings/Harrison at NT\Hank\Vernon
or
5. "modified '46" Vernon / JPP/Billings/Harrison/Hank
6. 5 line "small" , Kennard/JPP/Harrison\Billings\Vernon
6'6 248 with a 4.60 40, 39.5 inch vertical & 10'7 broad jump. The last two are better then Odell.
He went out to dinner with a team the night before the Pro Day. Got food poisoning from that. I'm sure there were plenty of Georgia & NFL team Drs there to confirm he was sick.
My point is - he didn't help himself if we are targeting him at #10. Jerry Reese, Marc Ross and LB Coach Bill McGovern took a boys trip down just to see him. Did his unfortunate incident turn us off? Who knows. That's why I postured the question.
But to act like they were 100% cool with going down there and seeing that is foolish IMO.
This conspiracy theory might be one of the most dumb things I've ever heard. Everything I've heard/read is that he's a model citizen off the field who loves football & takes it very seriously. Yet you think he was drinking in a meeting with an NFL team? That's completely ridiculous.
You don't think we would have heard about it if that's what happened? You don't think an NFL team would have leaked that info in a day where any & everything negative about players gets out into the media.
I agree that it’s going to be really hard to predict who the Giants will take at #10. I’d be OK with Floyd, but not thrilled. Fantastic length, can bend the edge, and can cover. But I was put off by his comments at his pro day, and he won’t stand up against the run as a 4-3 DE. That makes him a situational player. It’s also a very deep draft for DL. I don’t see the need to draft Floyd #10.
I’d rather trade down. I know it’s hard, but other teams manage to do it regularly. Reese has never done it IIRC.
You’d know better than I would, but I’d be surprised if Kaufusi went at #40.
Accorsi wanted to draft Kelly Jennings instead of Kiwi IIRC. He deferred to those who had a different opinion.
Point is, it's not like the guy shut Iit down and no showed his pro day, despite whatever illness he had.
Get to the QB or pressure him into mistakes..Simply stated, simple answer(for the most part) imo
His rookie pro season with Philly he had 5.5 sacks and then 8 in season 2.
He blew out his knee in preseason his 3rd year and was never the same player.
Some historical data:
20y shuttle
AJ Hawk 3.96
Alex McCalister 4.00 (6'6 240, fastest all time DL)
Stephone Anthony 4.03
Bruce Irvin 4.03
Von Miller 4.06
Shaq Thompson 4.08
Brandon Marshall (LB) 4.09
Luke Kuechly 4.12
Adrian Clayborn 4.13
Jordan Hicks 4.15
Jerry Hughes 4.15
Vic Beasley 4.15
Junior Galette 4.16
Khalil Mack 4.18
Mychal Kendricks 4.19
Darron Lee 4.20
Joey Bosa 4.21
Odiggy 4.19
JJ Watt 4.21
Shaq Lawson 4.21
Ryan Shazier 4.21
Lavonte David 4.22
Shilique Calhoun 4.25
Ziggy Ansah 4.26
Chris Borland 4.27
Reggie Ragland 4.28
Joe Schobert 4.30
Leonard Floyd 4.32
Dion Jordan 4.35
Noah Spence 4.35
Carl Nassib 4.37
Barkevious Mingo 4.39
3-cone
Von Miller 6.70
Bruce Irvin 6.70
Jordan Hicks 6.78
Barkevious Mingo 6.84
Anthony Barr 6.82
JJ Watt 6.88
Vinny Curry 6.90
Navarro Bowman 6.91
Vic Beasley 6.91
Ryan Shazier 6.91
Luke Kuechly 6.92
Justin Miller 6.95
Shilique Calhoun 6.97
Shaq Thompson 6.99
Jerry Hughes 6.99
Alex McCalister 7.01
Dion Jordan 7.02
Junior Galette 7.04
Brandon Marshall 7.05
Fletcher Cox 7.07
Stephone Anthony 7.07
Chandler Jones 7.07
Khalil Mack 7.08
Derrick Shelby 7.09
Jamie Collins 7.10
Ziggy Ansah 7.11
Aaron Donald 7.11
Nick Fairley 7.14
Shaq Lawson 7.16
Chris Borland 7.18
Jason Pierre Paul 7.18
Leonard Floyd 7.18
Noah Spence 7.21
Alex McCalister was more sack productive than Floyd in the same conference. And I suspect he's a couple of years younger, although I haven't been able to confirm his DOB.
You can't just draft great college players. That doesn't work out either. Look at Tebow or Trent Richardson.
Odell was a very good player, but nothing like he is now. Different coaches, schemes & players effect certain guys. Floyd has played many different positions throughout his career & was asked to do many things while switching positions.
They really don't mean shit. Patrick Willis had no problem covering & he had a 4.46 short shuttle & 7.23 3 cone.
Michael Sam had more sacks then Floyd & McCalister. Look how that worked out.
- he's got the size you like to see and long arms
- he is constantly churning side to side and looks a lot like JPP in that regard
- he really does cover well and demonstrates great speed and agility when covering
- he has a "nose" for the ball
- it's scary to think of his kind of athleticism after he fills in his frame a little
They really don't mean shit. Patrick Willis had no problem covering & he had a 4.46 short shuttle & 7.23 3 cone.
Michael Sam had more sacks then Floyd & McCalister. Look how that worked out.
"Food poisoning" as a diagnosis was tossed into the ether by Gil Brandt, who wasn't even there.
There's a reason they do these drills and there's a reason Von Miller is at the top of both lists. Floyd is not remotely in that class of athlete.
I mentioned Alex McCalister because he has great drill numbers as well as sack productivity in the SEC (and is younger). He does have the same "long and lean, point of attack" issues as Floyd.
Micheal Sam had horrendous drill numbers; absolutely predictable that he would bust.
Did all the other guys he ate with have food poisoning too? Or did he perhaps go out and celebrate with his boys on his college campus afterwards? Or did he just flat-out not feel like working out?
You are comfortable accepting the food poisoning excuse at face value. I raises some questions to me and I would be a little annoyed to say the least if I flew down there specifically to see him workout.
Did all the other guys he ate with have food poisoning too? Or did he perhaps go out and celebrate with his boys on his college campus afterwards? Or did he just flat-out not feel like working out?
You are comfortable accepting the food poisoning excuse at face value. I raises some questions to me and I would be a little annoyed to say the least if I flew down there specifically to see him workout.
The 2 drills he did not participate in at the combine - 3 cone and short shuttle he completed at his pro day.
Floyd stood on his combine numbers for 40, vertical and broad jump as well as the positional drills he performed at the combine.
Between his combine and pro day he filled in all the blanks.
There is no character flaw/flag to see here and if the Giants are really interested in Floyd they will have him in for a private workout and thoroughly check him out.
And drafting Floyd will not fix that issue. He doesn't have it, the intangibles you look for a LB. He might have off the chart measurables but that's not production. That's a workout warrior and unfortunately, given the sheer incompetence of Jints central, I think Colin is correct and they will waste #10 on this dud.