Bob Sturm has been doing a draft profiles series for the last five years or so based on systematic tape analysis. He also does a ton of tape breakdown during the regular season. He prefaces all of his draft profiles (50-70 per year) with the disclaimer that he has never been a GM or a scout but he watches a lot more tape than the average NFL beat reporter.
Sturm mentions that his choice of profiles is skewed to the Cowboys' positional needs (once past the very top players) so he does not purport to be doing a "top 50."
Looking back through his archive, I'm reasonably impressed. A January 2015 profile of Randy Gregory (before the drug issues) was spot on in doubting that Gregory was deserving of the top 5-10 hype he was getting at that point.
Sturm's "what I don't like" about Leonard Floyd:
"He just doesn't seem to have an ideal positional fit. The closest would be a 3-4 outside linebacker, but his physicality lacks at disconcerting levels when he is dealing with a play coming at him rather than away from him. He attacks a QB, but when the offensive line is attacking forward, he cannot stand his ground and often gets pushed right out of the way. He is routinely blocked by tight ends and gets stuck in traffic continuously. He is skinny and often appears outclassed with regards to power. Even on his pass rushes, he is pretty much all speed, which professional tackles will neutralize with any amount of scouting. There is a very real chance that he becomes a pass-rush-down only player, which, of course, limits his value in terms of draft position and paycheck. He plays with a great energy but appears to be a finesse linebacker, and that, at the college level, is a dangerous sign for what Sundays might be."
Another voice in the cautionary chorus.
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#10 should be a playmaker like RB Elliott or starting LT like Stanley or a CB of note like maybe Apple.
I'm starting to hope Hargreaves is there at 10.
AGREE!!!!
Just the natural cover ability alone, is rare for a man his size. His pass rush ability may be the best in this years draft.
How many college blue chippers have floundered in the NFL? How many preceived underachievers in college have be stars in the NFL? It mostly depends on the scheme, coaching and organization.
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He does flash on those plays but have not seen a complete game.
I can see that he will play lots of snaps because he can cover, rush and tackle ( if not blocked ).
If Giants intended to use him the way Kiwanuka was used, don't see the value at the 10 spot in the draft.
Given the lack of talent on current Giants' Roster, is he the right player in the ten spot ?
Also, Giants want physical players and right now, I do not see it in him.
I see Floyd eventually adding weight and becoming a full time 4-3 DE. Before that he'll give us an instant impact as a pass rusher.
It's a risky pick but I think he can help really help in year 1 and eventually become an excellent 4-3 DE.
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I can't think of another 6'6 245 lbs pure WILL, which is a different body type and skillset than a 3-4 OLB, which is where I think he'll be best suited in the NFL.
Well what were the Giants' plans for Dion Jordan? Supposedly they were very high on him and he has a body type very similar to Floyd's.
4-3 DE but I don't recall the love being that great, there was a split belief.
No thanks on Floyd. I watched him a bunch at UGA and he is very athletic, but not the guy who shined versus the physical running teams in the SEC.
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I suspect Floyd will demonstrate similar issues in the NFL.
Odigi doesn't have the goods for RDE, JPP is prolly gone in 2017 or at the latest by 2018...
This kid can get to the passer, and that's the biggest thing (about the whole team) they want to change.
Ok.. so what more do we want? Draft him.
Gregory had 16.5 sacks, 26.5 TFL, 119 tackles, 2FF, 2 INT between 2013-2014 (2 seasons).
In 3 seasons, Floyd had 17 sacks, 26.5 TFL, 182 tackles, 0 INT (0 PDs too), and 5FF.
There is no LB in the NFL with his length, but I will throw this out. What do you think Carl Banks will be able to help nurture from Floyd, given his athletic ability. I think that if Floyd come to the Giants, he may become the next addition to the Giants legacy of LB excellence. When you combine him with Kennard and Robinson, the front 7 could be as good as any in the NFL.
Floyd given his athletism, physical dimensions and intangibles, may be this years J.J. Watts at the LB position. Floyd will be a 3 down LB. That is not to say that he will be our pick, but if he isn't it will be to our eternal regret. Just imagine our LB corp returning to its past glory.
Gregory had 16.5 sacks, 26.5 TFL, 119 tackles, 2FF, 2 INT between 2013-2014 (2 seasons).
In 3 seasons, Floyd had 17 sacks, 26.5 TFL, 182 tackles, 0 INT (0 PDs too), and 5FF.
Forget highlights, look at the game tape, several are out there on youtube. Floyd, by last year, was known as a guy to avoid. Offenses didn't challenge him often, which is what makes saying "he can't stand up to being run at" a canard to some extent.He also lined up all over the place, so it's even more evident that opponents kept and eye out for him - to avoid him. His opposite number at OLB for Georgia, Jarvis Jenkins, actually accumulated more sacks, TFLs, and total tackle than Floyd. And he's a good player, he'll be drafted in the 2nd-4th rounds I bet.
But he accumulated more stats because teams ran away from Floyd.
Floyd on his tape also has pretty good thighs for a bean pole type, which explains his explosion and the fact that (IMO) he's better head on than he's credited for.
On tape, he's nearly unblockable around the edge. Even when he doesn't sack the guy, he's getting into the backfield with ease, creating pressures.
Jon, if they decide to go DL at 10, who'd be your top targets? I'm kind of "eh" on Lawson.
So maybe there is some thought in the Giants organization about going to a 3-4 down the road or going more hybrid next season if Floyd is indeed the pick.
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on the DL. Thus, the #10 overall pick needs to be more impactful than a conversion project at OLB, imo.
Jon, if they decide to go DL at 10, who'd be your top targets? I'm kind of "eh" on Lawson.
I don't see one yet, that's the dilemma at #10. I suspect they'd love Hargreaves to slip to them, but there might not be help on defense worthy of the #10 pick. Value is still coming into focus. I don't like Lawson and his bum shoulder shouldn't be ignored.
If that is indeed they're reasoning, the Front Office is more idiotic then previously thought.
As for Floyd, he's not any good. Coverage ability means squat when facing teams like Seattle, Arizona and probably Carolina, in the playoffs.
You need a physical, instinctive, MLB that is the undisputed leader of the defense.
Floyd checks none of those boxes.
To those who say Floyd needs to add weight and get stronger I counter that he'll be 24 before his rookie season even begins. How much organic physical growth is he going to have?
If drafting Floyd #10 prefaces a long term organizational shift to embracing the 3-4 that would be something to consider. It's still a big risk with such a critical pick and the franchise at a crossroads. Frankly I doubt his name is called to suit up in a blue jersey.
With his physique he may easily carry 260 lbs without any loss of quickness and speed. That would mean having a prototypical TE at OLB. Name one now on an NFL team. Floyd can grow into a bigger Ted Hendricks with true coverage ability. LT, Carl Banks, Brad Van Pelt, Byron Hunt, Andy Headen where among the tallest of the Giants legacy of OLB. Floyd can be even bigger and almost as dynamic, only time will tell.
I think it is about time we return to our roots, reclaiming our LB heritage.
Floyd vs Bama. - ( New Window )
Floyd is a bust waiting to happen.
Floyd is a bust waiting to happen.
based on what is he a bust?
i think jack is more bust prone due to injury concerns and because he is so hyped up.
floyd really hasnt been that hyped and to me has a high ceiling
mmm i dunno man i watch the tape i dont see the BEST LBer prospect, i think Jack and Smith would easily have the spots 1 and 2 locked up if smith was healthy, that being said i do like floyd and this he will be a dynamic pro
I think we need a pass rusher early, and it looks like a quality DE prospect will be there for us in round 2. Guys like Dodd, Ogbah, Calhoun, etc. are being mocked all over the place.
Floyd is a great athlete. Not a better player but he is a better pure H/W/S guy then even odell (jumps higher and further and his 40 yard time at his weight is more impressive)
His production wasn't spectacular but it was the best on his team. There is a lot to like about him even though he is scary so are the other guys. They are either slow, lack ideal size, or crazy.
In terms of potential impact guys I think he's cream of the crop in this class really.
Doesn't mean he won't bust of course. But unless jack falls, the Giants think Stanley is a stud LT (seriously who wants to draft a RT in the top 10? No RT has ever won any team any games, I exaggerate of course), or Buckner is there the giants don't have grest options at 10. Slow wr or slow cb or crazy Nkemdiche, or a DT who won't get any burn, options are limited.
I personally like Lawson. High SPARQ numbers, great production, good tape but he doesn't fit what the Giants look for (even though es similar to olivier vernon) in the draft.
Who's the best option? Not sure but Floyd is not the worst. Do you know how many good pass rushing OLB there are in the league? They are very hard to find. Giants have been looking everywhere for one for 10 years. He might be one.
He also provides two skills that the Giants of 2015 needed desperately:
The ability to get to the QB and the ability to cover Tight Ends. He's a true three down player with those two highly valuable skills, and provides something the Giants don't currently have.
I'm not going to pretend that it's not a risky pick, as he doesn't fill a traditional role, but he's unquestionably a dynamic player with top notch physical tools.
You know his tape isn't bad in that game. He had one missed tackle late in the game when it was out of hand, but when you watch him rush the passer compared to Georgia's other DE's/OLB's, Floyd clearly has that extra burst.
He also provides two skills that the Giants of 2015 needed desperately:
The ability to get to the QB and the ability to cover Tight Ends. He's a true three down player with those two highly valuable skills, and provides something the Giants don't currently have.
I'm not going to pretend that it's not a risky pick, as he doesn't fill a traditional role, but he's unquestionably a dynamic player with top notch physical tools.
I agree but EVERY pick is risky....shit i have a MONSTER crush on Jack but he has injury concerns and no pro day proves he could be hurt still he is a MONSTER but thats another HUGE risk but someone in top 5 will take it and if healthy all signs point to a great player but there is a chance he is bit by injury bug again and bam wasted top 5 pick, its a part of the drafting business...personally i like floyd i think he has a lot of upside cant teach speed man and this kid has a ton, he puts on another 15lbs and improves his run stopping ability youre talking about a pretty damn good LBer
he was one of the most talented players in that game (supposedly) and he got owned or was a non-factor.
Floyd's a bust.
he was one of the most talented players in that game (supposedly) and he got owned or was a non-factor.
Floyd's a bust.
lol...man thats a bold statement calling him a bust...can we let him play a down first
Something doesn't add up about his new found weight.
And just because he was miscast as an ILB and Georgia's best option there doesn't mean he suddenly is a great OLB.
The guy has incredible athleticism but shows none of the power or strength raw projects like JPP showed. He is pure speed and quickness.
He is almost the definition of boom or bust. His floor could be a 3rd down specialist that you move all over the field in coverage or rushing. His ceiling could be anything. There is almost no way I want him at 10. He is not even close to a 3 down NFL player IMO.
Something doesn't add up about his new found weight.
And just because he was miscast as an ILB and Georgia's best option there doesn't mean he suddenly is a great OLB.
The guy has incredible athleticism but shows none of the power or strength raw projects like JPP showed. He is pure speed and quickness.
He is almost the definition of boom or bust. His floor could be a 3rd down specialist that you move all over the field in coverage or rushing. His ceiling could be anything. There is almost no way I want him at 10. He is not even close to a 3 down NFL player IMO.
he didnt gain weight because Georgia plays a TON of nickel defense thus the desire for Lbers in the 215-235 range...they want speed guys who can cover and rush. thats my input as to why no weight gain, no seeing NFL teams want him as an OLB he knows he needs to add weight he is about 248 right now. could add more weight possibly?
but he isnt a DE...he is an OLB. i dont get why people cant see him as an OLB...he can cover, he can rush passer, if he cant play the run when taking on a block why put him at DE...allow him to stand up and fill the hole to stop the run. the guys is a WILL or possible a SS rush LBer
Exactly, Reese can't afford a project at 10. I can't imagine a scenario where Floyd is the pick. They've been there, done that and failed miserably.
dude he isnt 226 he is currently 248...did you see what he weighed in at the combine? if he stays where he is at 6'6 248 he is a good enough size to play LBer
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on the DL. Thus, the #10 overall pick needs to be more impactful than a conversion project at OLB, imo.
Exactly, Reese can't afford a project at 10. I can't imagine a scenario where Floyd is the pick. They've been there, done that and failed miserably.
oh boy we just have different opinions he isnt a project...the guy will IMMEDIATELY provide pass rush from the standing position...
Who gives a fuck about positions?! The Cardinals D proved that's bullshit this year. Put your most athletic/versatile players on the field & let them play.
Who gives a fuck about positions?! The Cardinals D proved that's bullshit this year. Put your most athletic/versatile players on the field & let them play.
THANK YOU! NFL defenses use so many hybrid looks, the only people who care about who plays LBer in the 43 are CBS and Fox when they introudce the players with the headshots at the beginning of the game. most teams move guys all over and have them make plays from any position. to me we add a guy who makes an impact you can title him towel boy, go out and get after the QB
There are analyses that complain that Floyd was played out of position and would have had more sacks if he were kept outside. But UGA fans says the reason he was moved inside is that he was terrible at setting the edge.
And if the response is that Floyd will primarily be used as a stand up rusher in pass situations, then what makes him that much more valuable than, say, Alex McCalister?
Not denying that Floyd could be a useful player but of course position matters when talking about a top 10 pick.
As side note, Falcons board, which has a lot of UGA fans, is split 50/50 on whether they would want Floyd at the #17 pick; many UGA alums are on the negative side.
and that was our two biggest issues
There are analyses that complain that Floyd was played out of position and would have had more sacks if he were kept outside. But UGA fans says the reason he was moved inside is that he was terrible at setting the edge.
And if the response is that Floyd will primarily be used as a stand up rusher in pass situations, then what makes him that much more valuable than, say, Alex McCalister?
Not denying that Floyd could be a useful player but of course position matters when talking about a top 10 pick.
As side note, Falcons board, which has a lot of UGA fans, is split 50/50 on whether they would want Floyd at the #17 pick; many UGA are on the negative side.
mmm do i trust the fans of UGA who are distraught their team isnt in top 5 ever or do i trust richt who has been coaching for a long time and is currently the canes new coach...im gonna go with richt.
he is an SEC defender...by nature they are just beast athletes and moved all over
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If he was 6 feet tall it would. If he could snap his fingers and be an athletic 245 any coach would love that. At 6'6 226 there are plenty of safeties thicker, stronger, tougher, and harder hitting than him.
dude he isnt 226 he is currently 248...did you see what he weighed in at the combine? if he stays where he is at 6'6 248 he is a good enough size to play LBer
Dude... Why wouldn't his college coach want him at 6'6 240+ if he is that athletic and is 23 years old??? It makes no sense. I can't imagine a coach saying to himself - " let's keep this 6 foot 6 inside linebacker who runs a 4.5 at 226 because that's the only way he can be fast enough."
He has never played at this weight ever, only tested at it. So all his film is at 226 and supposedly his coaches had a reason to keep him so light he would struggle to play basketball let alone football.
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I think a fair response follows from the way Sturm poses the question in his article: if UGA had to move Floyd around to hide his weaknesses in the SEC, why is that going to get better in the NFL?
There are analyses that complain that Floyd was played out of position and would have had more sacks if he were kept outside. But UGA fans says the reason he was moved inside is that he was terrible at setting the edge.
And if the response is that Floyd will primarily be used as a stand up rusher in pass situations, then what makes him that much more valuable than, say, Alex McCalister?
Not denying that Floyd could be a useful player but of course position matters when talking about a top 10 pick.
As side note, Falcons board, which has a lot of UGA fans, is split 50/50 on whether they would want Floyd at the #17 pick; many UGA are on the negative side.
mmm do i trust the fans of UGA who are distraught their team isnt in top 5 ever or do i trust richt who has been coaching for a long time and is currently the canes new coach...im gonna go with richt.
he is an SEC defender...by nature they are just beast athletes and moved all over
As a UGA fan, i find your comments amusing that we would blame Floyd more than Richt as the reason for not being a top 5 team.
For what its worth, Floyd is a nice talent but he has some flaws (described in numerous posts above) and not sure most UGA fans ever thought he would be a top 10 pick.
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In comment 12881540 Patrick77 said:
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If he was 6 feet tall it would. If he could snap his fingers and be an athletic 245 any coach would love that. At 6'6 226 there are plenty of safeties thicker, stronger, tougher, and harder hitting than him.
dude he isnt 226 he is currently 248...did you see what he weighed in at the combine? if he stays where he is at 6'6 248 he is a good enough size to play LBer
Dude... Why wouldn't his college coach want him at 6'6 240+ if he is that athletic and is 23 years old??? It makes no sense. I can't imagine a coach saying to himself - " let's keep this 6 foot 6 inside linebacker who runs a 4.5 at 226 because that's the only way he can be fast enough."
He has never played at this weight ever, only tested at it. So all his film is at 226 and supposedly his coaches had a reason to keep him so light he would struggle to play basketball let alone football.
because they were afraid the weight would hurt him? clearly it hasnt...what do you think there is some conspiracy? the kid was light, they liked it that way because they played a TON of nickel packages...they liked to be able to move him and were afraid weight gain would limit his ability to play everywhere and cover WRs in the slot
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In comment 12881619 shyster said:
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I think a fair response follows from the way Sturm poses the question in his article: if UGA had to move Floyd around to hide his weaknesses in the SEC, why is that going to get better in the NFL?
There are analyses that complain that Floyd was played out of position and would have had more sacks if he were kept outside. But UGA fans says the reason he was moved inside is that he was terrible at setting the edge.
And if the response is that Floyd will primarily be used as a stand up rusher in pass situations, then what makes him that much more valuable than, say, Alex McCalister?
Not denying that Floyd could be a useful player but of course position matters when talking about a top 10 pick.
As side note, Falcons board, which has a lot of UGA fans, is split 50/50 on whether they would want Floyd at the #17 pick; many UGA are on the negative side.
mmm do i trust the fans of UGA who are distraught their team isnt in top 5 ever or do i trust richt who has been coaching for a long time and is currently the canes new coach...im gonna go with richt.
he is an SEC defender...by nature they are just beast athletes and moved all over
As a UGA fan, i find your comments amusing that we would blame Floyd more than Richt as the reason for not being a top 5 team.
For what its worth, Floyd is a nice talent but he has some flaws (described in numerous posts above) and not sure most UGA fans ever thought he would be a top 10 pick.
dude read again. never said you guys blamed floyd i just know a ton of UGA fans who are bitter about not being colleges elite...it was a joke bro. i never said you blame richt or floyd lol. it was simple a oh do i trust bitter fans who are always miserable or a college coach who has been around....
Did Richt announce that Floyd should be a top 10 pick or some "can't miss in the NFL" LB prospect?
Did Richt announce that Floyd should be a top 10 pick or some "can't miss in the NFL" LB prospect?
bro did you even read the argument lol...
the question was why did georgia move him all around, my point is they were using him in many ways, someone said something along the lines of they were trying to hide him or they couldnt find anything specific he was good at...
im saying they used him for many things showing his versatility. someone said UGA fans didnt think he was good and said they moved him around to hide him because he was a liabaility in many areas...
um yea? lol...a college coach is looking out for his program, if the guy is successful at 226 why make a change? after college he clearly got advice that pros want him heavier...so he proved he can gain weight and maintain his athleticism.
HOLD UP...
what are you saying is going on? lol youre quite the conspiracy theorist huh...
what is your take on the situation? he didnt gain weight because he is bad heavy? what difference does it make he was heavy at combine and still beasted
The descriptions of him often sound a lot more like a weaker Dontay Moch than they do of any WLB, DE, or ILB currently playing in the NFL. For all anyone knows Floyd can't lift 225 once. He never benched once in front of scouts at his pro day or at the combine. I wonder why.
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for you and supporting your argument?
Did Richt announce that Floyd should be a top 10 pick or some "can't miss in the NFL" LB prospect?
bro did you even read the argument lol...
the question was why did georgia move him all around, my point is they were using him in many ways, someone said something along the lines of they were trying to hide him or they couldnt find anything specific he was good at...
im saying they used him for many things showing his versatility. someone said UGA fans didnt think he was good and said they moved him around to hide him because he was a liabaility in many areas...
Your correct that he was moved around because he was so versatile and could play in many different packages for UGA.
Floyd's going to struggle somewhat in the NFL holding up versus run and taking edge blockers and tight ends. Might be better served in a 3-4 where another LB can protect his area to some degree.
The descriptions of him often sound a lot more like a weaker Dontay Moch than they do of any WLB, DE, or ILB currently playing in the NFL. For all anyone knows Floyd can't lift 225 once. He never benched once in front of scouts at his pro day or at the combine. I wonder why.
so he doesnt hit hard means he is a bad player? and again who cares he is NO LONGER 226, he is now at a higher weight and didnt lose athleitcism...why cant he get stronger as MOST do when they get to the NFL...and again what does this have to do with your thought thats its interesting all of a sudden he gained weight lol
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The discussion about alignments are ridiculous. He could be a Super Linebacker. A guy that is difficult to game plan for, because teams can't predict where he will be on the field.
mmm i dunno man i watch the tape i dont see the BEST LBer prospect, i think Jack and Smith would easily have the spots 1 and 2 locked up if smith was healthy, that being said i do like floyd and this he will be a dynamic pro
Him not having a position. Him always chasing plays and not initiating them. His being an arm tackler with zero thump to his game. Him getting moved out of the play with so much as a shove. Him being run over constantly. Him getting glued to OL.
What you and the other 15 year olds on BBI see are a couple of highlights of him knifing thru gaps with a running start and wrapping college qbs up who aren't even considering NNFL careers and a FEW sexy workout numbers. Facts are that the guy has NEVER been extraordinary to begin with and he bowed out of both workouts. Now that's what I call a competitor!
"Oh, but look how fast he can run in a straight line and how high he can jump! He can cover Witten and Gronk....maybe. Wowwwwwwww."
This Floyd craze is literally the worst.
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Not Myles Jack good, but for an LB, really, really good. Plus he's 6'6" with really long arms....
Ok.. so what more do we want? Draft him.
If he projects as a WLB, is that the LB that is in coverage often?
I'm not sure I follow how a college LB playing LB in the NFL is a conversion project.
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Not Myles Jack good, but for an LB, really, really good. Plus he's 6'6" with really long arms....
Ok.. so what more do we want? Draft him.
We are not going to pick an LB at 10 for their coverage skills. He will be picked for rushing the passer. He will cover as often as Walter Payton threw the halfback option pass.
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It's not a pretty tale. Floyd vs Bama. - ( New Window )
You know his tape isn't bad in that game. He had one missed tackle late in the game when it was out of hand, but when you watch him rush the passer compared to Georgia's other DE's/OLB's, Floyd clearly has that extra burst.
I was just going to post the same thing. If anything, I see Alabama running away from his side of the field pretty frequently, and some really outstanding coverage by LF in the slot. If that's the bad tape on LF, I'd be very content with him at #10.
Then again, BBC has never been a particularly astute scout.