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NFT: Can someone explain the deal with the Republican Convention?

Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 12:29 pm
This is by no means a thread to discuss politics and debate policy. I simply want to understand a certain element of our electoral process.

I understand that if Donald Trump gets to 1,237 delegates prior to the Republican Convention that he is automatically the nominee. If he doesn't get to that magic number, then evidently things can change for him and the other nominees.

Can someone explain what happens there, in the event Trump doesn't get to that number? What exactly goes on that could potentially prevent a candidate with an overwhelming amount of support in the primaries from receiving the nomination? And furthermore, if it does get to the convention, is Trump still very, very likely to secure the nomination despite all of this posturing, or does something occur there that evens the playing field and makes it much more of an open race again?

Thank you in advance for your replies.
Here you  
Bogey : 4/27/2016 12:35 pm : link
go.
Link - ( New Window )
Delegates are only pledged for the first round of voting  
Deej : 4/27/2016 12:35 pm : link
so what could prevent him is that a bunch of delegates who are forced to vote Trump on ballot #1 decide to vote for someone else on ballot #2. It's their prerogative.
in a nutshell  
GMenLTS : 4/27/2016 12:36 pm : link
Delegates are bound to select the candidate that was awarded the respective delegate toward their delegate count, on the first ballot for all states.

After the first ballot, most delegates are free to choose whoever they wish at this point though some states do require delegates to vote the awarded candidate on the second ballot as well. I think there might be one or two states that require it on the third ballot too, but after 3 ballots, all delegates are now completely free to choose whomever they wish.

all depends how the delegate selection process shakes out and lots of backroom deals to make delegates change allegiances but I think at this point trump wins going away.

because apparently over a third of republican voters are fucking idiots
Bogey's link  
Deej : 4/27/2016 12:36 pm : link
is more precise than my answer, which gets to the point but isnt accurate (i.e. not all delegates are freed after one round of voting).
1237 represents a majority of delegates  
buford : 4/27/2016 12:38 pm : link
if a candidate comes into the convention with 1237 then he is usually nominated on the first ballot. If not, there is wrangling that goes on for the unbound delegates. If no one has a majority in the first ballot, they go to the second and third and so on. Many of the delegates are released after the first ballot and can vote for whoever they want.

As far as 'overwhelming support' more people have voted against Trump than have voted for him. That is why the rule is a majority of delegates and not votes.
A number of observers believe....  
manh george : 4/27/2016 12:40 pm : link
that if Trump gets to 1190 or so he's in. There are a number of uncommitted delegates around, and Trump will pick up some. Plus, if he's that close, the party leaders will worry that if they snatch it from him by keeping him under 1237 in the first ballot and then give it to, say, Cruz in the second ballot, they will still have an awful, personally unpopular candidate, and they will have to contend with Trump supporters staying home at the general election. This would kill them down-ballot, although they are already in trouble with either Trump or Cruz, at least in the Senate--probably not the House unless things get really crazy.

The chances of moving to someone other than Trump or Cruz are pretty tiny. Cruz would have a lot of delegates locked up in a second ballot, including a number required to vote for Trump in round 1.

The other thing Republican leaders fear is that the convention itself will be a godawful mess, with leadership forced to give at least lip service support to a candidate they don't like and expect to lose--and to take down some down-ballot candidates with him. Gubernatorial re-election candidates like McCrory in NC would have to be concerned about a ticket headed by Trump.
1st of all, Trump will have the 1237+, easily  
Stan in LA : 4/27/2016 12:41 pm : link
But to answer your question, after the 1st ballot(where delegates are bound to vote a certain candidate) many of the delegates will become free agents and can vote for anyone. Cruz has been trolling various state conventions(where the delegates get selected) and have been getting Cruz supporters to be delegates so if there is a 2nd, 3rd ballot they will vote for him instead of Trump. Unfortunately for Cruz, there will only be one ballot.

There is also a nuclear option where the rules committee(made up of Cruz supporters disguised as Trump delegates) can rule that ALL delegates are unbound on the 1st ballot. Of course, if they do that, there actually would be riots and a 3rd party run by The Donald.
the last contested convention was the DNC in 1980  
Greg from LI : 4/27/2016 12:44 pm : link
Ted Kennedy tried to get delegates to abandon their commitments to Carter and vote for him instead, despite Carter having already secured the nomination.

The last convention in which the nomination was up for grabs going in was the 1976 RNC, in which Ford led Reagan but fell short of the number needed.
Okay thanks all  
Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 12:46 pm : link
and that link was very helpful as I was unsure of what causes a 2nd ballot to occur.

So then my follow-up is, considering the establishment is set on doing all they can to make sure Trump is not the nominee (I don't think that's a controversial statement?), how does Trump even have a chance to secure the nomination if he doesn't win on the ballot where all the delegates are bound to their primary votes?

Theoretically, wouldn't it keep going on from the 2nd ballot to the 3rd ballot and so on, until more and more delegates are no longer bound to their primary, and ultimately the desired nominee is chosen? That's my main question, I suppose. If this does get to the convention without Trump hitting the magic number (let's say he's at about 1200) what are his odds of securing the nomination, and if their good, why is my theory above incorrect?
Can someone  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 4/27/2016 12:49 pm : link
Explain the the second ballet and third ballet? Does that mean that they would revote in states where let's say Rubio won and then redistribute those delegates to the new winner?
Now can someone point to a primer  
Deej : 4/27/2016 12:49 pm : link
on what the rules committee is deciding? Like what are their options and why are they important?
...  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2016 12:50 pm : link
Quote:
So then my follow-up is, considering the establishment is set on doing all they can to make sure Trump is not the nominee (I don't think that's a controversial statement?), how does Trump even have a chance to secure the nomination if he doesn't win on the ballot where all the delegates are bound to their primary votes?

Theoretically, wouldn't it keep going on from the 2nd ballot to the 3rd ballot and so on, until more and more delegates are no longer bound to their primary, and ultimately the desired nominee is chosen? That's my main question, I suppose. If this does get to the convention without Trump hitting the magic number (let's say he's at about 1200) what are his odds of securing the nomination, and if their good, why is my theory above incorrect?


There are 158 delegates and I think they can basically be 'bought'. And 54 of them are from Pennsylvania, and a majority of those said they'll vote for their district winner (Trump).

And if he doesn't get it on the first ballot he's done.

Betting markets currently have the chances of a brokered convention at 24%.
RE: Okay thanks all  
Patrick77 : 4/27/2016 12:50 pm : link
In comment 12924388 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:


So then my follow-up is, considering the establishment is set on doing all they can to make sure Trump is not the nominee (I don't think that's a controversial statement?), how does Trump even have a chance to secure the nomination if he doesn't win on the ballot where all the delegates are bound to their primary votes?

Theoretically, wouldn't it keep going on from the 2nd ballot to the 3rd ballot and so on, until more and more delegates are no longer bound to their primary, and ultimately the desired nominee is chosen? That's my main question, I suppose. If this does get to the convention without Trump hitting the magic number (let's say he's at about 1200) what are his odds of securing the nomination, and if their good, why is my theory above incorrect?


I personally think there is almost no way Trump doesn't secure it. He has the nuclear option and a lot of his supporters might not fall in line or might not vote if he isn't involved. He can always royally destroy the Republican chances by running independent. Him losing at the convention would unite the establishment and most moderates and alienate the segment that has no interest in the moderate or the establishment's views.
RE: Okay thanks all  
Stan in LA : 4/27/2016 12:51 pm : link
In comment 12924388 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
and that link was very helpful as I was unsure of what causes a 2nd ballot to occur.

So then my follow-up is, considering the establishment is set on doing all they can to make sure Trump is not the nominee (I don't think that's a controversial statement?), how does Trump even have a chance to secure the nomination if he doesn't win on the ballot where all the delegates are bound to their primary votes?

Theoretically, wouldn't it keep going on from the 2nd ballot to the 3rd ballot and so on, until more and more delegates are no longer bound to their primary, and ultimately the desired nominee is chosen? That's my main question, I suppose. If this does get to the convention without Trump hitting the magic number (let's say he's at about 1200) what are his odds of securing the nomination, and if their good, why is my theory above incorrect?

The conventional thinking for Trump is 1st ballot or bust. However, if that were to happen and the nomination got stolen from him, he goes 3rd party which would in effect elect Hillery. So the Rep. Establishment would be wise to bite the bullet and go with Trump.
RE: 1st of all, Trump will have the 1237+, easily  
fireitup77 : 4/27/2016 12:51 pm : link
In comment 12924359 Stan in LA said:
Quote:
But to answer your question, after the 1st ballot(where delegates are bound to vote a certain candidate) many of the delegates will become free agents and can vote for anyone. Cruz has been trolling various state conventions(where the delegates get selected) and have been getting Cruz supporters to be delegates so if there is a 2nd, 3rd ballot they will vote for him instead of Trump. Unfortunately for Cruz, there will only be one ballot.

There is also a nuclear option where the rules committee(made up of Cruz supporters disguised as Trump delegates) can rule that ALL delegates are unbound on the 1st ballot. Of course, if they do that, there actually would be riots and a 3rd party run by The Donald.


It's too late for The Donald to run 3rd party and many states have sore loser laws that will prevent it.
RE: Can someone  
Deej : 4/27/2016 12:51 pm : link
In comment 12924395 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
Explain the the second ballet and third ballet? Does that mean that they would revote in states where let's say Rubio won and then redistribute those delegates to the new winner?


ballot at the convention. The delegates are the voters. But it wouldnt just be the delegates that voted for drop outs who would be up for grabs. Per the link in the 2nd post, many states release all their delegates after the 1st or 2nd ballot to vote for whomever they want. That's why it is such a big deal that Cruz is getting people elected as Trump delegates. Those people will vote Trump only so long as they have to.
If Trump is the..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 4/27/2016 12:52 pm : link
leader in delegates and you either usurp their power or they switch their allegiance, you'll have a good portion of the voter base feel disenfranchised. Trump supporters are so avid, they'll probably not vote at all, or create some other form of chaos.

Neither scenario is good in trying to win the Presidential election.
Stan and co.  
Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 12:53 pm : link
Quote:
The conventional thinking for Trump is 1st ballot or bust.


This is really case? Because logically that's how I see it based on the information in this thread, but while the media is underscoring the importance of 1,237, it's not being characterized as "1st or Bust' as far as I can tell. That's where my confusion has been.

But I would agree with you based on what I've learned here.
RE: Can someone  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2016 12:53 pm : link
In comment 12924395 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
Explain the the second ballet and third ballet? Does that mean that they would revote in states where let's say Rubio won and then redistribute those delegates to the new winner?


I think it differs state-by-state, but delegates of candidates who dropped out are not necessarily bound on the first ballot. A lot of that is decided by the rules committee, I believe. Carson's seven delegates could go to Trump, theoretically. I don't believe they necessarily have to listen to him if he asks them to, however.
RE: If Trump is the..  
Patrick77 : 4/27/2016 12:55 pm : link
In comment 12924407 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
leader in delegates and you either usurp their power or they switch their allegiance, you'll have a good portion of the voter base feel disenfranchised. Trump supporters are so avid, they'll probably not vote at all, or create some other form of chaos.

Neither scenario is good in trying to win the Presidential election.


This. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.
538 has Trump at an average of 1210...  
manh george : 4/27/2016 12:56 pm : link
based up experts they surveyed, and putting zero uncommitted delegates in his box. Under that scenario, there are 146 uncommitted, including all of the technically uncommitted delegates in Pennsylvania, where they only give him 17. A large chunk of the Pennsylvania delegates have said that they will vote for the candidate who won their congressional district, at least in the first round.

Using the 538 projections, that in and of itself gets him over 1237.
Link - ( New Window )
worst. election. ever  
Greg from LI : 4/27/2016 12:59 pm : link
Buffoonish carnival barker completely devoid of principles versus evil criminal bitch. Who wins? Who cares, we all lose.
RE: RE: Can someone  
dpinzow : 4/27/2016 1:02 pm : link
In comment 12924406 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12924395 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


Explain the the second ballet and third ballet? Does that mean that they would revote in states where let's say Rubio won and then redistribute those delegates to the new winner?



ballot at the convention. The delegates are the voters. But it wouldnt just be the delegates that voted for drop outs who would be up for grabs. Per the link in the 2nd post, many states release all their delegates after the 1st or 2nd ballot to vote for whomever they want. That's why it is such a big deal that Cruz is getting people elected as Trump delegates. Those people will vote Trump only so long as they have to.


Ron Paul tried to do the same thing in 2012...those were called "ninja delegates"
RE: worst. election. ever  
Moondawg : 4/27/2016 1:02 pm : link
In comment 12924435 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Buffoonish carnival barker completely devoid of principles versus evil criminal bitch. Who wins? Who cares, we all lose.


Gendered attacks much?
RE: in a nutshell  
BurberryManning : 4/27/2016 1:02 pm : link
In comment 12924334 GMenLTS said:
Quote:

because apparently over a third of republican voters are fucking idiots
You simply cannot help yourself from throwing blanket indictments upon millions of Americans who you do not understand and it's pathetic.
RE: RE: worst. election. ever  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2016 1:03 pm : link
In comment 12924445 Moondawg said:
Quote:
In comment 12924435 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


Buffoonish carnival barker completely devoid of principles versus evil criminal bitch. Who wins? Who cares, we all lose.



Gendered attacks much?


Women could be buffoon's too!
There is no good scenario for the Republicans to win the Presidency.  
manh george : 4/27/2016 1:05 pm : link
Trump will start off well behind, and he is unlikely to fair well in 1-on-1 debates.

A Cruz win would piss off Trump supporters, and he is none too popular elsewhere.

I think the Republicans quickly go into damage control in an attempt to limit the down-ballot disaster. The presidential mess has already pushed Dems to a 5% lead in Congressional preference polls, which is very large. It is, I think the key reason why nearly all Obama popularity polls show him in plus territory. Look how deeply negative he was before the election process heated up. (link)

It could get worse.
Link - ( New Window )
Pleaaaaaaaseeee don't do this.  
Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 1:05 pm : link
It's so validating Eric's point.

I'm just trying to get the process, not debate the merits of the process or hte people who are voting. Come on.
RE: worst. election. ever  
mfsd : 4/27/2016 1:06 pm : link
In comment 12924435 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Buffoonish carnival barker completely devoid of principles versus evil criminal bitch. Who wins? Who cares, we all lose.


Yup this sums is up better than anyone else I've read so far.

And we can call Hillary and evil criminal incompetent, for PC purposes
Before this gets nuked  
Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 1:07 pm : link
Just one final question.

If Trump falls just short of 1,237 prior to the convention, if you had to assign a percentage, what are the odds he winds up the nominee?
RE: Before this gets nuked  
Patrick77 : 4/27/2016 1:08 pm : link
In comment 12924469 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
Just one final question.

If Trump falls just short of 1,237 prior to the convention, if you had to assign a percentage, what are the odds he winds up the nominee?


90%

The alternative to me is basically ceding the democrats whatever they want for a decade. At least rallying behind trump theoretically only destroys you for one election cycle.
RE: RE: Before this gets nuked  
Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 1:09 pm : link
In comment 12924476 Patrick77 said:
Quote:
In comment 12924469 Mike in Long Beach said:


Quote:


Just one final question.

If Trump falls just short of 1,237 prior to the convention, if you had to assign a percentage, what are the odds he winds up the nominee?



90%

The alternative to me is basically ceding the democrats whatever they want for a decade. At least rallying behind trump theoretically only destroys you for one election cycle.


Patrick, but then why are Cruz and Kaisich doing this alliance then? No matter what, it seems pretty clear at this point Trump will get close, so then why would the establishment try and force him short of 1,237 just to throw in the towel at the convention?
There is an important civics lesson...  
BamaBlue : 4/27/2016 1:09 pm : link
with the Republican situation. I hope it doesn't get lost in all the drama and media circus. Many very intelligent people refer to the United States as a "democracy." While there are certainly strong democratic principals, the United States is a "Representative Republic." These aren't rules that just got dreamed up this year, they have been in-place and tweaked since the founding of the Nation.
95%  
Greg from LI : 4/27/2016 1:10 pm : link
For the pragmatic reason that nominating someone else will cause a schism that will not go away for a long time. As Patrick said, there are worse things for a party long-term than losing one election cycle.
Yeah...  
manh george : 4/27/2016 1:10 pm : link
90%+, but if he is really close--1215 or better--I go close to 100%. He will pick up a handful of uncommitted delegates.
RE: There is an important civics lesson...  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2016 1:12 pm : link
In comment 12924480 BamaBlue said:
Quote:
with the Republican situation. I hope it doesn't get lost in all the drama and media circus. Many very intelligent people refer to the United States as a "democracy." While there are certainly strong democratic principals, the United States is a "Representative Republic." These aren't rules that just got dreamed up this year, they have been in-place and tweaked since the founding of the Nation.


I may be misreading what you're saying, but I don't believe that's accurate. I don't believe the delegates were tied to voters (meaning primaries weren't held) until post-Lincoln days.

Private political parties' nominating processes aren't governed by the nation.
RE: RE: in a nutshell  
Randy in CT : 4/27/2016 1:13 pm : link
In comment 12924447 BurberryManning said:
Quote:
In comment 12924334 GMenLTS said:


Quote:



because apparently over a third of republican voters are fucking idiots

You simply cannot help yourself from throwing blanket indictments upon millions of Americans who you do not understand and it's pathetic.
Trump is an idiot as are his followers. For example, Kasich is a good, smart person who would make a good president.

And to Greg's point, he should fact-check HRC a bit. Most rhetoric about her is false.
Same question above then  
Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 1:13 pm : link
posted to the rest of you guys saying 90%+

What's the point of the alliance then? It's just setting up the problematic scenario you both stated.
RE: RE: RE: Before this gets nuked  
Patrick77 : 4/27/2016 1:13 pm : link
In comment 12924479 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
In comment 12924476 Patrick77 said:


Quote:


In comment 12924469 Mike in Long Beach said:


Quote:


Just one final question.

If Trump falls just short of 1,237 prior to the convention, if you had to assign a percentage, what are the odds he winds up the nominee?



90%

The alternative to me is basically ceding the democrats whatever they want for a decade. At least rallying behind trump theoretically only destroys you for one election cycle.



Patrick, but then why are Cruz and Kaisich doing this alliance then? No matter what, it seems pretty clear at this point Trump will get close, so then why would the establishment try and force him short of 1,237 just to throw in the towel at the convention?


I'm no expert on this. I think Kasich and Cruz are in survival mode. After losing to Trump I would expect their political capital is spent.

I think that as long as Trump gets close (and he will) the delegates and powers that be are intelligent enough to realize long term success is more important than trying to avoid short term failures.
....  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2016 1:14 pm : link
If Trump lost steam and came in with 1,000-1,050 delegates the case for nominating someone else would be much stronger. That's why the 'alliance' made sense (but is way too late).
RE: Can someone  
buford : 4/27/2016 1:14 pm : link
In comment 12924395 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
Explain the the second ballet and third ballet? Does that mean that they would revote in states where let's say Rubio won and then redistribute those delegates to the new winner?


Nobody re-votes in the states. It's all up to the delegates at this point.
hey Randy? Go fuck yourself, you statist shitbag  
Greg from LI : 4/27/2016 1:15 pm : link
*warm, friendly smile*
Mike, this isn't the establishment, it's Cruz and Kasich...  
manh george : 4/27/2016 1:15 pm : link
individually, and they are handling it horribly. Kasich can't even get himself to say that his followers should vote for Cruz in Indiana. All he has done is to stop spending on ads there.

These two, but especially Cruz, don't give a rat's ass how their actions effect other races.

Btw, one can hate Hillary all he/she wants, and still make a case for voting for her. With the Republican party having moved so far to the right, the policy issues matter. And so does the Supreme Court.
Thanks Patrick  
Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 1:15 pm : link
Not challenging you here, just trying to get it...

You say:
Quote:
Kasich and Cruz are in survival mode.


But aren't their goals aligned with the rest of the establishment? If as you and others have said, it will divide the party further to not get behind Trump should he get close (which he will), then what is the point of forcing that dilemma to unfold? Wouldn't it be in the best interest of the party then to do the exact opposite of what they're doing? Or do they both have legitimate aspirations of being president, so the party be damned?
RE: RE: worst. election. ever  
buford : 4/27/2016 1:16 pm : link
In comment 12924445 Moondawg said:
Quote:
In comment 12924435 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


Buffoonish carnival barker completely devoid of principles versus evil criminal bitch. Who wins? Who cares, we all lose.



Gendered attacks much?



Oh puhlese.
manh george  
Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 1:16 pm : link
You answered my question just before I got it out.

Thank you :)

That's all I needed here.
RE: Mike, this isn't the establishment, it's Cruz and Kasich...  
Patrick77 : 4/27/2016 1:17 pm : link
In comment 12924509 manh george said:
Quote:
individually, and they are handling it horribly. Kasich can't even get himself to say that his followers should vote for Cruz in Indiana. All he has done is to stop spending on ads there.

These two, but especially Cruz, don't give a rat's ass how their actions effect other races.

Btw, one can hate Hillary all he/she wants, and still make a case for voting for her. With the Republican party having moved so far to the right, the policy issues matter. And so does the Supreme Court.


Mike - to answer your question to me. Basically everything he said above.
Re: unbound delegates  
BlackLight : 4/27/2016 1:18 pm : link
42 of the 54 delegates elected in PA last night were either on Trump's slate, or had pledged to vote for their district's winner (meaning Trump).

So while those 42 could still change their mind, any delegate math should tentatively factor them in as being for Trump.
right, it's only those cra-ay-ay-zy Republicans who have shifted  
Greg from LI : 4/27/2016 1:18 pm : link
George never strays from the playbook. He's like the Lombardi Packers.
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RE: Thanks Patrick  
buford : 4/27/2016 1:19 pm : link
In comment 12924511 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
Not challenging you here, just trying to get it...

You say:

Quote:


Kasich and Cruz are in survival mode.



But aren't their goals aligned with the rest of the establishment? If as you and others have said, it will divide the party further to not get behind Trump should he get close (which he will), then what is the point of forcing that dilemma to unfold? Wouldn't it be in the best interest of the party then to do the exact opposite of what they're doing? Or do they both have legitimate aspirations of being president, so the party be damned?


Cruz is not establishment. If Trump wasn't in this race, the establishment would be gunning for him. And many are convinced that Trump would either lose big and drag down the rest of the party or be even worse if he managed to win. Kasich is just having the time of his life, that's his thing.
Yep, makes sense now buford  
Mike in Long Beach : 4/27/2016 1:21 pm : link
Thank you everyone for the info
you also have to understand something else about the GOP establishment  
Greg from LI : 4/27/2016 1:24 pm : link
Many of them are more preoccupied with asserting their power over the rubes than actually doing anything constructive. Trump voters largely have understandable motivations, they have just chosen a spectacularly awful vehicle for their frustrations.
The other fly in the ointment  
TEPLimey : 4/27/2016 1:25 pm : link
is that RNC Rule 40 (implemented in 2012) requires that any potential nominee must have won the majority of primary voting in 8 states. Of course, the rule could be changed...
RE: worst. election. ever  
Tesla : 4/27/2016 1:28 pm : link
In comment 12924435 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Buffoonish carnival barker completely devoid of principles versus evil criminal bitch. Who wins? Who cares, we all lose.


This is why Eric is right to ban political posts. I usually like Greg and enjoy his posts, but these threads reveal what a dick he really is...and one who pretty clearly has at least some misogynistic tendencies.

You don't like Hillary, fine. Calling her an "evil bitch?". That's pretty revealing. Thanks for letting us see your true colors here.
RE: RE: 1st of all, Trump will have the 1237+, easily  
Stan in LA : 4/27/2016 1:28 pm : link
In comment 12924405 fireitup77 said:
Quote:
In comment 12924359 Stan in LA said:


Quote:


But to answer your question, after the 1st ballot(where delegates are bound to vote a certain candidate) many of the delegates will become free agents and can vote for anyone. Cruz has been trolling various state conventions(where the delegates get selected) and have been getting Cruz supporters to be delegates so if there is a 2nd, 3rd ballot they will vote for him instead of Trump. Unfortunately for Cruz, there will only be one ballot.

There is also a nuclear option where the rules committee(made up of Cruz supporters disguised as Trump delegates) can rule that ALL delegates are unbound on the 1st ballot. Of course, if they do that, there actually would be riots and a 3rd party run by The Donald.



It's too late for The Donald to run 3rd party and many states have sore loser laws that will prevent it.


Nope.
Quote:
What may be more of an issue, though, are so-called sore loser laws, which essentially prohibit candidates from running in a party primary and then a general election as a candidate not from that party.
According to a 2011 Georgetown Law Review article by Emory associate law professor Michael Kang, all but three states have such laws on the books -- though Kang's research was focused more on congressional elections, he told CNN in an email.
"The laws for presidential elections are sometimes different and I think always in the less restrictive direction," Kang said. "Even some states with outright prohibitions on sore loser candidates for Congress or other offices have an exemption for presidential candidates. So applied to Trump's case, there's a lot less in the way of an independent run for a president than there would be for Congress or most other offices."
I have a book for you, Greg.  
manh george : 4/27/2016 1:30 pm : link
"American Amnesia," linked.

The authors make a strong case for the benefits of a "mixed economy," and they also make a strong case that Republican presidents up to and including Pappy Bush were vastly more supportive of a mixed economy than current mainstream Republicans are.

While Sanders is further to the left than traditional Democrats, the effect won't last long after the election.
And aside for some foreign policy incompetencies, Obama has governed as a Democrat who is moderate by historical standards, so there isn't much of a trend there. That's even true on Obamacare, where Nixon was well to the left of where Hillary was in Bill's Presidency, or what Obama got passed. Meanwhile, Republicans at the state level have moved aggressively to the right, and enough have moved to the right at the federal level to put sand in the gears.
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RE: Same question above then  
fireitup77 : 4/27/2016 1:31 pm : link
In comment 12924494 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
posted to the rest of you guys saying 90%+

What's the point of the alliance then? It's just setting up the problematic scenario you both stated.


It's not 90%. The key is the delegates. The delegates right the rules and choose the nominee. The delegates get chosen by the activists in the local parties. In most states the process looks something like this. After the primary or caucus, there are local elections to elect delegates to the state convention. At the state convention the delegates vote for the national delegates. Cruz has been killing it in this process. He is getting his people elected as the delegates. Yes on the first vote (some states the second and maybe the third) they are required to vote Trump. But on a second or third vote these delegates are going to go to Cruz. Trump will see his highest delegate total on the first vote. And this is not stealing the election. It's knowing and playing by the rules.

There is also rule 40 b you need to be familiar with. It states that in order to have your name be put up for the nomination you must have won the majority of at least 8 states delegates. Only two people have done that. Cruz and Trump. So those are the only two that have a shot.

My prediction is that if Trump doesn't win on the first vote, the nomination goes to Cruz.
yep, that's me  
Greg from LI : 4/27/2016 1:32 pm : link
I'm a misogynist because I believe Hillary Clinton is a worthless pile of shit. Has nothing to do with her disgusting pandering, her extremely long history of shameless lying, her fascist favored policies, her brazen flouting of the law - nope, it's all sex organs.
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