This is by no means a thread to discuss politics and debate policy. I simply want to understand a certain element of our electoral process.
I understand that if Donald Trump gets to 1,237 delegates prior to the Republican Convention that he is automatically the nominee. If he doesn't get to that magic number, then evidently things can change for him and the other nominees.
Can someone explain what happens there, in the event Trump doesn't get to that number? What exactly goes on that could potentially prevent a candidate with an overwhelming amount of support in the primaries from receiving the nomination? And furthermore, if it does get to the convention, is Trump still very, very likely to secure the nomination despite all of this posturing, or does something occur there that evens the playing field and makes it much more of an open race again?
Thank you in advance for your replies.
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After the first ballot, most delegates are free to choose whoever they wish at this point though some states do require delegates to vote the awarded candidate on the second ballot as well. I think there might be one or two states that require it on the third ballot too, but after 3 ballots, all delegates are now completely free to choose whomever they wish.
all depends how the delegate selection process shakes out and lots of backroom deals to make delegates change allegiances but I think at this point trump wins going away.
because apparently over a third of republican voters are fucking idiots
As far as 'overwhelming support' more people have voted against Trump than have voted for him. That is why the rule is a majority of delegates and not votes.
The chances of moving to someone other than Trump or Cruz are pretty tiny. Cruz would have a lot of delegates locked up in a second ballot, including a number required to vote for Trump in round 1.
The other thing Republican leaders fear is that the convention itself will be a godawful mess, with leadership forced to give at least lip service support to a candidate they don't like and expect to lose--and to take down some down-ballot candidates with him. Gubernatorial re-election candidates like McCrory in NC would have to be concerned about a ticket headed by Trump.
There is also a nuclear option where the rules committee(made up of Cruz supporters disguised as Trump delegates) can rule that ALL delegates are unbound on the 1st ballot. Of course, if they do that, there actually would be riots and a 3rd party run by The Donald.
The last convention in which the nomination was up for grabs going in was the 1976 RNC, in which Ford led Reagan but fell short of the number needed.
So then my follow-up is, considering the establishment is set on doing all they can to make sure Trump is not the nominee (I don't think that's a controversial statement?), how does Trump even have a chance to secure the nomination if he doesn't win on the ballot where all the delegates are bound to their primary votes?
Theoretically, wouldn't it keep going on from the 2nd ballot to the 3rd ballot and so on, until more and more delegates are no longer bound to their primary, and ultimately the desired nominee is chosen? That's my main question, I suppose. If this does get to the convention without Trump hitting the magic number (let's say he's at about 1200) what are his odds of securing the nomination, and if their good, why is my theory above incorrect?
Theoretically, wouldn't it keep going on from the 2nd ballot to the 3rd ballot and so on, until more and more delegates are no longer bound to their primary, and ultimately the desired nominee is chosen? That's my main question, I suppose. If this does get to the convention without Trump hitting the magic number (let's say he's at about 1200) what are his odds of securing the nomination, and if their good, why is my theory above incorrect?
There are 158 delegates and I think they can basically be 'bought'. And 54 of them are from Pennsylvania, and a majority of those said they'll vote for their district winner (Trump).
And if he doesn't get it on the first ballot he's done.
Betting markets currently have the chances of a brokered convention at 24%.
So then my follow-up is, considering the establishment is set on doing all they can to make sure Trump is not the nominee (I don't think that's a controversial statement?), how does Trump even have a chance to secure the nomination if he doesn't win on the ballot where all the delegates are bound to their primary votes?
Theoretically, wouldn't it keep going on from the 2nd ballot to the 3rd ballot and so on, until more and more delegates are no longer bound to their primary, and ultimately the desired nominee is chosen? That's my main question, I suppose. If this does get to the convention without Trump hitting the magic number (let's say he's at about 1200) what are his odds of securing the nomination, and if their good, why is my theory above incorrect?
I personally think there is almost no way Trump doesn't secure it. He has the nuclear option and a lot of his supporters might not fall in line or might not vote if he isn't involved. He can always royally destroy the Republican chances by running independent. Him losing at the convention would unite the establishment and most moderates and alienate the segment that has no interest in the moderate or the establishment's views.
So then my follow-up is, considering the establishment is set on doing all they can to make sure Trump is not the nominee (I don't think that's a controversial statement?), how does Trump even have a chance to secure the nomination if he doesn't win on the ballot where all the delegates are bound to their primary votes?
Theoretically, wouldn't it keep going on from the 2nd ballot to the 3rd ballot and so on, until more and more delegates are no longer bound to their primary, and ultimately the desired nominee is chosen? That's my main question, I suppose. If this does get to the convention without Trump hitting the magic number (let's say he's at about 1200) what are his odds of securing the nomination, and if their good, why is my theory above incorrect?
The conventional thinking for Trump is 1st ballot or bust. However, if that were to happen and the nomination got stolen from him, he goes 3rd party which would in effect elect Hillery. So the Rep. Establishment would be wise to bite the bullet and go with Trump.
There is also a nuclear option where the rules committee(made up of Cruz supporters disguised as Trump delegates) can rule that ALL delegates are unbound on the 1st ballot. Of course, if they do that, there actually would be riots and a 3rd party run by The Donald.
It's too late for The Donald to run 3rd party and many states have sore loser laws that will prevent it.
ballot at the convention. The delegates are the voters. But it wouldnt just be the delegates that voted for drop outs who would be up for grabs. Per the link in the 2nd post, many states release all their delegates after the 1st or 2nd ballot to vote for whomever they want. That's why it is such a big deal that Cruz is getting people elected as Trump delegates. Those people will vote Trump only so long as they have to.
Neither scenario is good in trying to win the Presidential election.
This is really case? Because logically that's how I see it based on the information in this thread, but while the media is underscoring the importance of 1,237, it's not being characterized as "1st or Bust' as far as I can tell. That's where my confusion has been.
But I would agree with you based on what I've learned here.
I think it differs state-by-state, but delegates of candidates who dropped out are not necessarily bound on the first ballot. A lot of that is decided by the rules committee, I believe. Carson's seven delegates could go to Trump, theoretically. I don't believe they necessarily have to listen to him if he asks them to, however.
Neither scenario is good in trying to win the Presidential election.
This. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.
Using the 538 projections, that in and of itself gets him over 1237.
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Explain the the second ballet and third ballet? Does that mean that they would revote in states where let's say Rubio won and then redistribute those delegates to the new winner?
ballot at the convention. The delegates are the voters. But it wouldnt just be the delegates that voted for drop outs who would be up for grabs. Per the link in the 2nd post, many states release all their delegates after the 1st or 2nd ballot to vote for whomever they want. That's why it is such a big deal that Cruz is getting people elected as Trump delegates. Those people will vote Trump only so long as they have to.
Ron Paul tried to do the same thing in 2012...those were called "ninja delegates"
Gendered attacks much?
because apparently over a third of republican voters are fucking idiots
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Buffoonish carnival barker completely devoid of principles versus evil criminal bitch. Who wins? Who cares, we all lose.
Gendered attacks much?
Women could be buffoon's too!
A Cruz win would piss off Trump supporters, and he is none too popular elsewhere.
I think the Republicans quickly go into damage control in an attempt to limit the down-ballot disaster. The presidential mess has already pushed Dems to a 5% lead in Congressional preference polls, which is very large. It is, I think the key reason why nearly all Obama popularity polls show him in plus territory. Look how deeply negative he was before the election process heated up. (link)
It could get worse.
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I'm just trying to get the process, not debate the merits of the process or hte people who are voting. Come on.
Yup this sums is up better than anyone else I've read so far.
And we can call Hillary and evil criminal incompetent, for PC purposes
If Trump falls just short of 1,237 prior to the convention, if you had to assign a percentage, what are the odds he winds up the nominee?
If Trump falls just short of 1,237 prior to the convention, if you had to assign a percentage, what are the odds he winds up the nominee?
90%
The alternative to me is basically ceding the democrats whatever they want for a decade. At least rallying behind trump theoretically only destroys you for one election cycle.
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Just one final question.
If Trump falls just short of 1,237 prior to the convention, if you had to assign a percentage, what are the odds he winds up the nominee?
90%
The alternative to me is basically ceding the democrats whatever they want for a decade. At least rallying behind trump theoretically only destroys you for one election cycle.
Patrick, but then why are Cruz and Kaisich doing this alliance then? No matter what, it seems pretty clear at this point Trump will get close, so then why would the establishment try and force him short of 1,237 just to throw in the towel at the convention?
I may be misreading what you're saying, but I don't believe that's accurate. I don't believe the delegates were tied to voters (meaning primaries weren't held) until post-Lincoln days.
Private political parties' nominating processes aren't governed by the nation.
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because apparently over a third of republican voters are fucking idiots
You simply cannot help yourself from throwing blanket indictments upon millions of Americans who you do not understand and it's pathetic.
And to Greg's point, he should fact-check HRC a bit. Most rhetoric about her is false.
What's the point of the alliance then? It's just setting up the problematic scenario you both stated.
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In comment 12924469 Mike in Long Beach said:
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Just one final question.
If Trump falls just short of 1,237 prior to the convention, if you had to assign a percentage, what are the odds he winds up the nominee?
90%
The alternative to me is basically ceding the democrats whatever they want for a decade. At least rallying behind trump theoretically only destroys you for one election cycle.
Patrick, but then why are Cruz and Kaisich doing this alliance then? No matter what, it seems pretty clear at this point Trump will get close, so then why would the establishment try and force him short of 1,237 just to throw in the towel at the convention?
I'm no expert on this. I think Kasich and Cruz are in survival mode. After losing to Trump I would expect their political capital is spent.
I think that as long as Trump gets close (and he will) the delegates and powers that be are intelligent enough to realize long term success is more important than trying to avoid short term failures.
Nobody re-votes in the states. It's all up to the delegates at this point.
These two, but especially Cruz, don't give a rat's ass how their actions effect other races.
Btw, one can hate Hillary all he/she wants, and still make a case for voting for her. With the Republican party having moved so far to the right, the policy issues matter. And so does the Supreme Court.
You say:
But aren't their goals aligned with the rest of the establishment? If as you and others have said, it will divide the party further to not get behind Trump should he get close (which he will), then what is the point of forcing that dilemma to unfold? Wouldn't it be in the best interest of the party then to do the exact opposite of what they're doing? Or do they both have legitimate aspirations of being president, so the party be damned?
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Buffoonish carnival barker completely devoid of principles versus evil criminal bitch. Who wins? Who cares, we all lose.
Gendered attacks much?
Oh puhlese.
Thank you :)
That's all I needed here.
These two, but especially Cruz, don't give a rat's ass how their actions effect other races.
Btw, one can hate Hillary all he/she wants, and still make a case for voting for her. With the Republican party having moved so far to the right, the policy issues matter. And so does the Supreme Court.
Mike - to answer your question to me. Basically everything he said above.
So while those 42 could still change their mind, any delegate math should tentatively factor them in as being for Trump.
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Kasich and Cruz are in survival mode.
But aren't their goals aligned with the rest of the establishment? If as you and others have said, it will divide the party further to not get behind Trump should he get close (which he will), then what is the point of forcing that dilemma to unfold? Wouldn't it be in the best interest of the party then to do the exact opposite of what they're doing? Or do they both have legitimate aspirations of being president, so the party be damned?
Cruz is not establishment. If Trump wasn't in this race, the establishment would be gunning for him. And many are convinced that Trump would either lose big and drag down the rest of the party or be even worse if he managed to win. Kasich is just having the time of his life, that's his thing.
This is why Eric is right to ban political posts. I usually like Greg and enjoy his posts, but these threads reveal what a dick he really is...and one who pretty clearly has at least some misogynistic tendencies.
You don't like Hillary, fine. Calling her an "evil bitch?". That's pretty revealing. Thanks for letting us see your true colors here.
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But to answer your question, after the 1st ballot(where delegates are bound to vote a certain candidate) many of the delegates will become free agents and can vote for anyone. Cruz has been trolling various state conventions(where the delegates get selected) and have been getting Cruz supporters to be delegates so if there is a 2nd, 3rd ballot they will vote for him instead of Trump. Unfortunately for Cruz, there will only be one ballot.
There is also a nuclear option where the rules committee(made up of Cruz supporters disguised as Trump delegates) can rule that ALL delegates are unbound on the 1st ballot. Of course, if they do that, there actually would be riots and a 3rd party run by The Donald.
It's too late for The Donald to run 3rd party and many states have sore loser laws that will prevent it.
Nope.
According to a 2011 Georgetown Law Review article by Emory associate law professor Michael Kang, all but three states have such laws on the books -- though Kang's research was focused more on congressional elections, he told CNN in an email.
"The laws for presidential elections are sometimes different and I think always in the less restrictive direction," Kang said. "Even some states with outright prohibitions on sore loser candidates for Congress or other offices have an exemption for presidential candidates. So applied to Trump's case, there's a lot less in the way of an independent run for a president than there would be for Congress or most other offices."
The authors make a strong case for the benefits of a "mixed economy," and they also make a strong case that Republican presidents up to and including Pappy Bush were vastly more supportive of a mixed economy than current mainstream Republicans are.
While Sanders is further to the left than traditional Democrats, the effect won't last long after the election.
And aside for some foreign policy incompetencies, Obama has governed as a Democrat who is moderate by historical standards, so there isn't much of a trend there. That's even true on Obamacare, where Nixon was well to the left of where Hillary was in Bill's Presidency, or what Obama got passed. Meanwhile, Republicans at the state level have moved aggressively to the right, and enough have moved to the right at the federal level to put sand in the gears.
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What's the point of the alliance then? It's just setting up the problematic scenario you both stated.
It's not 90%. The key is the delegates. The delegates right the rules and choose the nominee. The delegates get chosen by the activists in the local parties. In most states the process looks something like this. After the primary or caucus, there are local elections to elect delegates to the state convention. At the state convention the delegates vote for the national delegates. Cruz has been killing it in this process. He is getting his people elected as the delegates. Yes on the first vote (some states the second and maybe the third) they are required to vote Trump. But on a second or third vote these delegates are going to go to Cruz. Trump will see his highest delegate total on the first vote. And this is not stealing the election. It's knowing and playing by the rules.
There is also rule 40 b you need to be familiar with. It states that in order to have your name be put up for the nomination you must have won the majority of at least 8 states delegates. Only two people have done that. Cruz and Trump. So those are the only two that have a shot.
My prediction is that if Trump doesn't win on the first vote, the nomination goes to Cruz.