Every year, there is talk across the league about the risks of reaching for need. Taking the "Best Player Available" is often is often hed up as the lowest-risk strategy. Every team makes some kind of claim about drafting BPA.
I couldn't find it today, but I remember an article Eric wrote ~100 years ago comparing the BPA and need strategies. And he said that if you keep drafting the 2nd-best player available to fill needs, then eventually you'll have a team full of 2nd-best players.
So, I was wondering if there are any regret stories from teams passing on a need to take the BPA. The only one that comes to my mind is Mathias Kiwanuka. He was drafted into a position of strength, and never got the playing time to fully develop. Was it a coaching mistake to move him to LB? Even if they kept him at DE, was it a waste of talent at one spot? Would they have done better to draft to a position of need?
Can anyone think of stories around the league of teams botching a pick by using BPA strategy?
2006 BBI Draft Review - (
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but....
The larger regret is from taking low floor/ high ceiling athletes. Randle , Moss, Brewer, Travis beckham, Ramses, etc. Wilson is a tough call. I always felt he was a luxury pick I wanted OL.
Compounded by taking 1st rd talent in rd 2 due to injuries, Steve Smith, Terell Thomas,
His career would've looked better in retrospect if he was drafted by a 4-3 team that didn't have a logjam of talent at the DE position.
Great? Not a good pick. They should have drafted DeMeco Ryans who was a much better player than Kiwi ever was. He may have been BPA on their board bit it was a bad pick. But on the good side it was a much better than wasting what they got for the trade down for KIWI w the horrendous move up for Sinioroce Moss.
That year was an F What a disaster. A guy w no positon and then a trade up for a WR who literally underperformed his whole career but wowed the the scouts in the senior bowl.
He was a career JAG at best. Heck. He wasn't even on the filed or a part of the first SB IIRC as he was hurt during the season.
By the way, Kiwi's short shuttle and 3 cone times were much better than Landon Collins' who was a need pick and I think will be a JAG.
Give him credit. Played 9 years. Other Jan that his stats in the NFL SCREAM JAG. now maybe injuries played a part in that but again what some guys here consider great and above average is not what I do.
That's ok but look at his stats. As a starter he wasn't ever anything more than a support player ever for the Giants. Good guy. Worked hard. But a JAG IMO . How I look at him and his stats
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A few years ago I went through every top ten overall pick for 10 years. Roughly a third of them were impact players, roughly a third were solid starters or major role players, and
roughly a third were total busts (including players whose careers were ruined by early injuries.) The draft is that much of a crap shoot. And, by the way, the historical performance of draft picks in various slots declines less rapidly than the trade value, which is why trading down is generally a better move than trading up.
Hasn't changed since. Avoid guys like Ryans. Levonte Da I'd and Bobby Wagner. And in those 3 cases all those LBs would have helped the against more than they picked.
Kiwi was not a bust pick. But it shows how the Giants think. THey don't give a rats ass about pure LBs in the draft early. And secondly it shows how different people view the bar as to what great and above average is compared to others.
No regrets
He was a good pick, as the Superbowls showed, wether he was or wasn't the lead dog